SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Earth's Future”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 487 records · Page 27Linked to original sources

USGS2010

Spatial distribution of pingos in Northern Asia

Pingos are prominent periglacial landforms in vast regions of the Arctic and Subarctic. They are indicators of modern and past conditions of permafrost, surface geology, hydrology and climate. A first version of a detailed spatial geodatabase of more than 6000 pingo locations in a 3.5 ?? 106 km2 region of Northern Asia was assembled from topographic maps. A first order analysis was carried out with respect to permafrost, landscape characteristics, surface geology, hydrology, climate, and elevation datasets using a Geographic Information System (GIS). Pingo heights in the dataset vary between 2 and 37 m, with a mean height of 4.8 m. About 64% of the pingos occur in continuous permafrost with high ice content and thick sediments; another 19% in continuous permafrost with moderate ice content and thick sediments. The majority of these pingos likely formed through closed system freezing, typical of those located in drained thermokarst lake basins of northern lowlands with continuous permafrost. About 82% of the pingos are located in the tundra bioclimatic zone. Most pingos in the dataset are located in regions with mean annual ground temperatures between -3 and -11 ??C and mean annual air temperatures between -7 and -18 ??C. The dataset confirms that surface geology and hydrology are key factors for pingo formation and occurrence. Based on model predictions for near-future permafrost distribution, hundreds of pingos along the southern margins of permafrost will be located in regions with thawing permafrost by 2100, which ultimately may lead to increased occurrence of pingo collapse. Based on our dataset and previously published estimates of pingo numbers from other regions, we conclude that there are more than 11 000 pingos on Earth. ?? 2010 Author(s).

Cryosphere Discussions↗

USGS2022

Temporal and petrogenetic links between Mesoproterozoic alkaline and carbonatite magmas at Mountain Pass, California

Mountain Pass is the site of the most economically important rare earth element (REE) deposit in the United States. Mesoproterozoic alkaline intrusions are spatiotemporally associated with a composite carbonatite stock that hosts REE ore. Understanding the genesis of the alkaline and carbonatite magmas is an essential scientific goal for a society in which critical minerals are in high demand and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. We present an ion microprobe study of zircon crystals in shonkinite and syenite intrusions to establish geochronological and geochemical constraints on the igneous underpinnings of the Mountain Pass REE deposit. Silicate whole-rock compositions occupy a broad spectrum (50–72 wt % SiO 2 ), are ultrapotassic (6–9 wt % K 2 O; K 2 O/Na 2 O = 2–9), and have highly elevated concentrations of REEs (La 500–1,100× chondritic). Zircon concordia 206 Pb/ 238 U- 207 Pb/ 235 U ages determined for shonkinite and syenite units are 1409 ± 8, 1409 ± 12, 1410 ± 8, and 1415 ± 6 Ma (2 σ ). Most shonkinite dikes are dominated by inherited Paleoproterozoic xenocrysts, but there are sparse primary zircons with 207 Pb/ 206 Pb ages of 1390–1380 ± 15 Ma for the youngest grains. Our new zircon U-Pb ages for shonkinite and syenite units overlap published monazite Th-Pb ages for the carbonatite orebody and a smaller carbonatite dike. Inherited zircons in shonkinite and syenite units are ubiquitous and have a multimodal distribution of 207 Pb/ 206 Pb ages that cluster in the range of 1785–1600 ± 10–30 Ma. Primary zircons have generally lower Hf (<11,000 ppm) and higher Eu/Eu* (>0.6), Th (>300 ppm), Th/U (>1), and Ti-in-zircon temperatures (>800°C) than inherited zircons. Oxygen isotope data reveals a large range in δ 18 O values for primary zircons, from mantle (5–5.5‰) to crustal and supracrustal (7–9‰). A couple of low- δ 18 O outliers (2‰) point to a component of shallow crust altered by meteoric water. The δ 18 O range of inherited zircons (5–10‰) overlaps that of the primary zircons. Our study supports a model in which alkaline and carbonatite magmatism occurred over tens of millions of years, repeatedly tapping a metasomatized mantle source, which endowed magmas with elevated REEs and other diagnostic components (e.g., F, Ba). Though this metasomatized mantle region existed for the duration of Mountain Pass magmatism, it probably did not predate magmatism by substantial geologic time (>100 m.y.), based on the similarity of 1500 Ma zircons with the dominantly 1800–1600 Ma inherited zircons, as opposed to the 1450–1350 Ma primary zircons. Mountain Pass magmas had diverse crustal inputs from assimilation of Paleoproterozoic and Mesoproterozoic igneous, metaigneous, and metasedimentary rocks. Crustal assimilation is only apparent from high spatial resolution zircon analyses and underscores the need for mineral-scale approaches in understanding the genesis of the Mountain Pass system.

California↗

USGS2019

Empirical estimation of natural geoelectric hazards

Geoelectric field time series can be estimated by convolving estimates of Earth‐surface impedance, such as those obtained from magnetotelluric survey measurements, with historical records of geomagnetic variation obtained at magnetic observatories. This straightforward procedure permits the mapping of geoelectric field variation during magnetic storms. Statistical analysis of the time series allows extrapolation to extreme‐value amplitudes, such as might be realized during an intense magnetic storm in the future. The development of these products is illustrated for the Mid‐Atlantic United States, using impedances obtained from EarthScope survey data and geomagnetic variation records obtained at the Fredericksburg observatory operated by the U.S. Geological Survey. For this region, 100‐year geoelectric exceedance amplitudes have a range of almost three orders of magnitude (from 0.04 V/km at a site in southern Pennsylvania to 24.29 V/km at a site in central Virginia), and they have significant geographic granularity, which is due to site‐to‐site differences in surface impedance (and subsurface electrical conductivity structure). Maps of 100‐year exceedance amplitudes resemble those of geoelectric amplitudes for the March 1989 magnetic storm, and, in that sense, the March 1989 storm resembles what might be loosely called a “100‐year” event.

Book chapter↗

USGS2023

Skinks of Oceania, New Guinea, and Eastern Wallacea: An underexplored biodiversity hotspot

Context: Skinks comprise the dominant component of the terrestrial vertebrate fauna in Oceania, New Guinea, and Eastern Wallacea (ONGEW). However, knowledge of their diversity is incomplete, and their conservation needs are poorly understood. Aims: To explore the diversity and threat status of the skinks of ONGEW and identify knowledge gaps and conservation needs. Methods: We compiled a list of all skink species occurring in the region and their threat categories designated by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. We used available genetic sequences deposited in the National Center for Biotechnology Information’s GenBank to generate a phylogeny of the region’s skinks. We then assessed their diversity within geographical sub-divisions and compared to other reptile taxa in the region. Key results: Approximately 300 species of skinks occur in ONGEW, making it the second largest global hotspot of skink diversity following Australia. Many phylogenetic relationships remain unresolved, and many species and genera are in need of taxonomic revision. One in five species are threatened with extinction, a higher proportion than almost all reptile families in the region. Conclusions: ONGEW contain a large proportion of global skink diversity on <1% of the Earth’s landmass. Many are endemic and face risks such as habitat loss and invasive predators. Yet, little is known about them, and many species require taxonomic revision and threat level re-assessment. Implications: The skinks of ONGEW are a diverse yet underexplored group of terrestrial vertebrates, with many species likely facing extreme risks in the near future. Further research is needed to understand the threats they face and how to protect them.

Pacific Conservation Biology↗

USGS2014

Linking rapid magma reservoir assembly and eruption trigger mechanisms at evolved Yellowstone-type supervolcanoes

The geological record contains evidence of volcanic eruptions that were as much as two orders of magnitude larger than the most voluminous eruption experienced by modern civilizations, the A.D. 1815 Tambora (Indonesia) eruption. Perhaps nowhere on Earth are deposits of such supereruptions more prominent than in the Snake River Plain–Yellowstone Plateau (SRP-YP) volcanic province (northwest United States). While magmatic activity at Yellowstone is still ongoing, the Heise volcanic field in eastern Idaho represents the youngest complete caldera cycle in the SRP-YP, and thus is particularly instructive for current and future volcanic activity at Yellowstone. The Heise caldera cycle culminated 4.5 Ma ago in the eruption of the &sim;1800 km 3 Kilgore Tuff. Accessory zircons in the Kilgore Tuff display significant intercrystalline and intracrystalline oxygen isotopic heterogeneity, and the vast majority are 18 O depleted. This suggests that zircons crystallized from isotopically distinct magma batches that were generated by remelting of subcaldera silicic rocks previously altered by low-δ 18 O meteoric-hydrothermal fluids. Prior to eruption these magma batches were assembled and homogenized into a single voluminous reservoir. U-Pb geochronology of isotopically diverse zircons using chemical abrasion–isotope dilution–thermal ionization mass spectrometry yielded indistinguishable crystallization ages with a weighted mean 206 Pb/ 238 U date of 4.4876 ± 0.0023 Ma (MSWD = 1.5; n = 24). These zircon crystallization ages are also indistinguishable from the sanidine 40 Ar/ 39 Ar dates, and thus zircons crystallized close to eruption. This requires that shallow crustal melting, assembly of isolated batches into a supervolcanic magma reservoir, homogenization, and eruption occurred extremely rapidly, within the resolution of our geochronology (10 3 –10 4 yr). The crystal-scale image of the reservoir configuration, with several isolated magma batches, is very similar to the reservoir configurations inferred from seismic data at active supervolcanoes. The connection of magma batches vertically distributed over several kilometers in the upper crust would cause a substantial increase of buoyancy overpressure, providing an eruption trigger mechanism that is the direct consequence of the reservoir assembly process.

Geology↗

USGS2018

Quantifying uncertainty in cumulative surface slip along the Cucamonga Fault, a crustal thrust fault in southern California

Studies of historic earthquake ground surface ruptures show that displacements along strike are spatially variable. As a result, latest Quaternary slip rates developed from a spatially restricted set of cumulative displacement measurements may not accurately represent fault velocity. Here we examine the uncertainties associated with slip on the Cucamonga Fault, which is part of a network of faults that have generated damaging historical earthquakes in and around Los Angeles, California. Numerous scarps along its ~25‐km length are well expressed on alluvial fans. We make 310 measurements of vertical separation across the scarps using lidar data. We show that the dispersion of the vertical separations cannot be explained by our best estimates of analytical uncertainties alone. Additional epistemic uncertainties are required. We find that the magnitude of the required epistemic uncertainty is typically larger than analytical uncertainty by a factor of 3 and typically about 22% of the maximum vertical separation. These relationships appear to hold at several spatial scales. We examine three potential sources of epistemic uncertainty and find that none among surface age uncertainty, fault dip, and anthropogenic landscape alteration is likely sufficient to explain the overdispersion of the data, which suggests differences in cumulative strain along the strike of the fault. We calculate a range of dip‐slip rates between 0.4 and 2.6 mm/year. In light of our results, we suggest that future thrust‐fault slip‐rate studies adopt an epistemic uncertainty of 22% of the maximum value for vertical separation measurements, unless there are sufficient data to demonstrate otherwise.

California↗

USGS2014

Hillslope-scale experiment demonstrates role of convergence during two-step saturation

Subsurface flow and storage dynamics at hillslope scale are difficult to ascertain, often in part due to a lack of sufficient high-resolution measurements and an incomplete understanding of boundary conditions, soil properties, and other environmental aspects. A continuous and extreme rainfall experiment on an artificial hillslope at Biosphere 2's Landscape Evolution Observatory (LEO) resulted in saturation excess overland flow and gully erosion in the convergent hillslope area. An array of 496 soil moisture sensors revealed a two-step saturation process. First, the downward movement of the wetting front brought soils to a relatively constant but still unsaturated moisture content. Second, soils were brought to saturated conditions from below in response to rising water tables. Convergent areas responded faster than upslope areas, due to contributions from lateral subsurface flow driven by the topography of the bottom boundary, which is comparable to impermeable bedrock in natural environments. This led to the formation of a groundwater ridge in the convergent area, triggering saturation excess runoff generation. This unique experiment demonstrates, at very high spatial and temporal resolution, the role of convergence on subsurface storage and flow dynamics. The results bring into question the representation of saturation excess overland flow in conceptual rainfall-runoff models and land-surface models, since flow is gravity-driven in many of these models and upper layers cannot become saturated from below. The results also provide a baseline to study the role of the co-evolution of ecological and hydrological processes in determining landscape water dynamics during future experiments in LEO.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS1993

Preliminary evaluation of effects of best management practices in the Black Earth Creek, Wisconsin, priority watershed

Nonpoint-source contamination accounts for a substantial part of the water quality problems in many watersheds. The Wisconsin Nonpoint Source Water Pollution Abatement Program provides matching money for voluntary implementation of various best management practices (BMPs). The effectiveness of BMPs on a drainage-basin scale has not been adequately assessed in Wisconsin by use of data collected before and after BMP implementation. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, monitored water quality in the Black Earth Creek watershed in southern Wisconsin from October 1984 through September 1986 (pre-BMP conditions). BMP implementation began during the summer of 1989 and is planned to continue through 1993. Data collection resumed in fall 1989 and is intended to provide information during the transitional period of BMP implementation (1990-93) and 2 years of post-BMP conditions (1994-95). Preliminary results presented for two subbasins in toe Black Earth Creek watershed (Brewery and Garfoot Creeks) are based on data collected during pre-BMP conditions and the first 3 years of the transitional period. The analysis includes the use of regressions to control for natural variability in the data and, hence, enhance the ability to detect changes. Data collected to date (1992) indicate statistically significant differences in storm mass transport of suspended sediment and ammonia nitrogen at Brewery Creek. The central tendency of the regression residuals has decreased with the implementation of BMPs; hence, the improvement in water quality in the Brewery Creek watershed is likely a result of BMP implementation. Differences in storm mass transport at Garfoot Creek were not detected, primarily because of an insufficient number of storms in the transitional period. As practice implementation continues, the additional data will be used to determine the level of management which results in significant improvements in water quality in the two watersheds. Future research will address techniques for including snowmelt runoff and early spring storms.Nonpoint-source contamination accounts for a substantial part of the water quality problems in many watersheds. The Wisconsin Nonpoint Source Water Pollution Abatement Program provides matching money for voluntary implementation of various best management practices (BMPs). The effectiveness of BMP s on a drainage-basin scale has not been adequately assessed in Wisconsin by use of data collected before and after BMP implementation. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, monitored water quality in the Black Earth Creek watershed in southern Wisconsin from October 1984 through September 1986 (pre-BMP conditions). BMP implementation began during the summer of 1989 and is planned to continue through 1993. Data collection resumed in fall 1989 and is intended to provide information during the transitional period of BMP implementation (1990-93) and 2 years of post-BMP conditions (1994-95). Preliminary results presented for two subbasins in the Black Earth Creek watershed (Brewery and Garfoot Creeks) are based on data collected during pre-BMP conditions and the first 3 years of the transitional period. The analysis includes the use of regressions to control for natural variability in the data and, hence, enhance the ability to detect changes. Data collected to date (1992) indicate statistically significant differences in storm mass transport of suspended sediment and ammonia nitrogen at Brewery Creek. The central tendency of the regression residuals has decreased with the implementation of BMPs; hence, the improvement in water quality in the Brewery Creek watershed is likely a result of BMP implementation. Differences in storm mass transport at Garfoot Creek were not detected, primarily because of an insufficient number of storms in the transitional period. As practice implementation continues, the addit

Conference Paper↗

USGS2008

High-resolution chirp and mini-sparker seismic-reflection data from the southern California continental shelf — Gaviota to Mugu Canyon

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collected high-resolution shallow seismic-reflection data in September, 2007, and June-July, 2008, from the continental shelf offshore of southern California between Gaviota and Mugu Canyon, in support of the California's State Waters Mapping Program. Data were acquired using SIG 2mille mini-sparker and Edgetech chirp 512 instruments aboard the R/V Zephyr (Sept. 2007) and R/V Parke Snavely (June-July 2008). The survey area spanned approximately 120 km of coastline, and included shore-perpendicular transects spaced 1.0-1.5 km apart that extended offshore to at least the 3-mile limit of State waters, in water depths ranging from 10 m near shore to 300 m near the offshore extent of Mugu and Hueneme submarine canyons. Subbottom acoustic penetration spanned tens to several hundred meters, variable by location. This report includes maps of the surveyed transects, linked to Google Earth software, as well as digital data files showing images of each transect in SEG-Y, JPEG, and TIFF formats. The images of sediment deposits, tectonic structure, and natural-gas seeps collected during this study provide geologic information that is essential to coastal zone and resource management at Federal, State and local levels, as well as to future research on the sedimentary, tectonic, and climatic record of southern California.

California↗

USGS2016

High-resolution seismic-reflection data from offshore northern California — Bolinas to Sea Ranch

The U.S. Geological Survey collected high-resolution seismic-reflection data in September 2009, on survey S-8-09-NC, offshore of northern California between Bolinas and Sea Ranch. The survey area spans about 125 km of California’s coast and extends around Point Reyes. Data were collected aboard the U.S. Geological Survey R/V Parke Snavely . Cumulatively, ~1,150 km of seismic-reflection data were acquired using a SIG 2mille minisparker. Subbottom acoustic depth of penetration spanned tens to several hundred meters and varied by location and underlying sediments and rock types. This report includes maps and a navigation file of the surveyed transects, utilizing Google Earth™ software, as well as digital data files showing images of each transect in SEG-Y and JPEG formats. The images of bedrock, sediment deposits, and tectonic structure provide geologic information that is essential to hazard assessment, regional sediment management, and coastal and marine spatial planning at Federal, State and local levels. This information is also valuable for future research on the geomorphic, sedimentary, tectonic, and climatic record of central California.

California↗

USGS2022

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: The ISIMIP lake sector.

Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5 ∘ × 0.5 ∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.

Geoscientific Model Development↗

USGS2020

Forecasting, detecting, and tracking volcanic eruptions from space

Satellite monitoring of volcanic activity typically includes four primary observations: (1) deformation and surface change, (2) gas emissions, (3) thermal anomalies, and (4) ash plumes. These phenomena are imaged by remote sensing data that span the electromagnetic spectrum, from microwave to ultraviolet energy and including visible and infrared wavelengths. The primary uses of satellite data in volcanology are forecasting, detecting, and tracking eruptive activity. Eruptions are often preceded by a number of indicators that are detectable from space, including surface deformation, subtle increases in surface temperature, and elevated gas emissions. The first indications of eruption, especially at remote volcanoes, are often identified in satellite data by strong thermal anomalies and/or the presence of ash and gas in the atmosphere, the recognition of which can be automated for rapid eruption detection. Once an eruption is in progress, space-based imagery of all types can track activity over time, providing information on the emplacement of volcanic deposits, the presence and character of ash plumes, and potential changes in the character of the eruption, all of which aid hazards assessment. Activity at Agung volcano, Indonesia, during 2017–2019, offers an excellent example of the importance of remote sensing datasets for forecasting, detecting, and tracking eruptions. Challenges to exploiting current and future satellite data include ensuring regular acquisitions over active volcanoes and developing tools for automated analysis of the massive volume of imagery for volcano-related signals.

Remote Sensing in Earth Systems Sciences↗

USGS2014

Deep-ocean ferromanganese crusts and nodules

Ferromanganese crusts and nodules may provide a future resource for a large variety of metals, including many that are essential for emerging high- and green-technology applications. A brief review of nodules and crusts provides a setting for a discussion on the latest (past 10 years) research related to the geochemistry of sequestration of metals from seawater. Special attention is given to cobalt, nickel, titanium, rare earth elements and yttrium, bismuth, platinum, tungsten, tantalum, hafnium, tellurium, molybdenum, niobium, zirconium, and lithium. Sequestration from seawater by sorption, surface oxidation, substitution, and precipitation of discrete phases is discussed. Mechanisms of metal enrichment reflect modes of formation of the crusts and nodules, such as hydrogenetic (from seawater), diagenetic (from porewaters), and mixed diagenetic–hydrogenetic processes.

Book chapter↗

USGS2008

Compositional trends in aeolian dust along a transect across the southwestern United States

Aeolian dust strongly influences ecology and landscape geochemistry over large areas that span several desert ecosystems of the southwestern United States. This study evaluates spatial and temporal variations and trends of the physical and chemical properties of dust in the southwestern United States by examining dust deposited in natural depressions on high isolated surfaces along a transect from the Mojave Desert to the central Colorado Plateau. Aeolian dust is recognized in these depressions on the basis of textural, chemical, isotopic, and mineralogical characteristics and comparisons of those characteristics to the underlying bedrock units. Spatial and temporal trends suggest that although local dust sources are important to the accumulated material in these depressions, Mojave Desert dust sources may also contribute. Depth trends in the depressions suggest that Mojave sources may have contributed more dust to the Colorado Plateau recently than in the past. These interpretations point to the important roles of far-traveled aeolian dust for landscape geochemistry and imply future changes to soil geochemistry under changing conditions in far-distant dust source areas. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS2016

Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise

Coastal marshes are considered to be among the most valuable and vulnerable ecosystems on Earth, where the imminent loss of ecosystem services is a feared consequence of sea level rise. However, we show with a meta-analysis that global measurements of marsh elevation change indicate that marshes are generally building at rates similar to or exceeding historical sea level rise, and that process-based models predict survival under a wide range of future sea level scenarios. We argue that marsh vulnerability tends to be overstated because assessment methods often fail to consider biophysical feedback processes known to accelerate soil building with sea level rise, and the potential for marshes to migrate inland.

Nature Climate Change↗

USGS2017

Impact of tile drainage on evapotranspiration in South Dakota, USA, based on high spatiotemporal resolution evapotranspiration time series from a multi-satellite data fusion system

Soil drainage is a widely used agricultural practice in the midwest USA to remove excess soil water to potentially improve the crop yield. Research shows an increasing trend in baseflow and streamflow in the midwest over the last 60 years, which may be related to artificial drainage. Subsurface drainage (i.e., tile) in particular may have strongly contributed to the increase in these flows, because of its extensive use and recent gain in the popularity as a yield-enhancement practice. However, how evapotranspiration (ET) is impacted by tile drainage on a regional level is not well-documented. To explore spatial and temporal ET patterns and their relationship to tile drainage, we applied an energy balance-based multisensor data fusion method to estimate daily 30-m ET over an intensively tile-drained area in South Dakota, USA, from 2005 to 2013. Results suggest that tile drainage slightly decreases the annual cumulative ET, particularly during the early growing season. However, higher mid-season crop water use suppresses the extent of the decrease of the annual cumulative ET that might be anticipated from widespread drainage. The regional water balance analysis during the growing season demonstrates good closure, with the average residual from 2005 to 2012 as low as -3 mm. As an independent check of the simulated ET at the regional scale, the water balance analysis lends additional confidence to the study. The results of this study improve our understanding of the influence of agricultural drainage practices on regional ET, and can affect future decision making regarding tile drainage systems.

IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth O↗

USGS2022

Volcano, earthquake, and tsunami hazards of the Cascadia Subduction Zone

Subduction zones produce some of Earth’s most devastating geological events. Recent eruptions of Mount St. Helens and great earthquakes and tsunamis in Japan and Sumatra provide stark examples of the destructive power of subduction-related hazards. In the Cascadia subduction zone, large earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions have occurred in the past and geologic records imply that these events will occur in the future. As the population and infrastructure increase in the region, resilience to these natural hazards requires a detailed scientific understanding of the geologic forces and processes involved, combined with a society motivated to mitigate risks.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2018

Mount St. Helens retrospective: Lessons learned since 1980 and remaining challenges

Since awakening from a 123-year repose in 1980, Mount St. Helens has provided an opportunity to study changes in crustal magma storage at an active arc volcano—a process of fundamental importance to eruption forecasting and hazards mitigation. There has been considerable progress, but important questions remain unanswered. Was the 1980 eruption triggered by an injection of magma into an upper crustal reservoir? If so, when? How did magma rise into the edifice without producing detectable seismicity deeper than ∼2.5 km or measurable surface deformation beyond the volcano’s north flank? Would precursory activity have been recognized earlier if current monitoring techniques had been available? Despite substantial improvements in monitoring capability, similar questions remain after the dome-forming eruption of 2004–2008. Did additional magma accumulate in the reservoir between the end of the 1980–1986 eruption and the start of the 2004–2008 eruption? If so, when? What is the significance of a relative lull in seismicity and surface deformation for several years prior to the 2004–2008 eruption onset? How did magma reach the surface without producing seismicity deeper than ∼2 km or measurable deformation more than a few hundred meters from the vent? Has the reservoir been replenished since the eruption ended, and is it now primed for the next eruption? What additional precursors, if any, should be expected? This paper addresses these questions, explores possible answers, and identifies unresolved issues in need of additional study. The 1980–1986 and 2004–2008 eruptions could have resulted from second boiling during crystallization of magma long-resident in an upper crustal reservoir, rather than from injection of fresh magma from below. If reservoir pressurization and magma ascent were slow enough, resulting strain might have been accommodated by viscoelastic deformation, without appreciable seismicity or surface deformation, until rising magma entered a brittle regime within 2–2.5 km of the surface. Given the remarkably gas-poor nature of the 2004–2008 dome lava, future eruptive activity might require a relatively long period of quiescence and reservoir pressurization or a large injection of fresh magma—an event that arguably has not occurred since the Kalama eruptive period (C.E. 1479–1720).

Washington↗