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At least 469 records · Page 26Linked to original sources
USGS1999

Evaluation of the flood-pulse concept based on statistical models of growth of selected fishes of the upper Mississippi River system

The flood-pulse concept (FPC) states that annual inundation is the principal force responsible for productivity and biotic interactions in river-floodplain systems. Somatic growth is one component of production, and we hypothesized that, if the FPC applies, growth of fishes that use the moving littoral zone should differ among years with differing flood pattern, whereas nonlittoral fishes would show no such response. Growth of largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) and bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus), species that exploit littoral resources, increased during a year having an unusual warm-season flood in the Upper Mississippi River system and was reduced during low-water years. Growth of white bass (Morone chrysops), which do not rely heavily on the littoral zone, did not differ significantly between the extreme-flood and low-water years. Patterns of growth of black crappie (Pomoxis nigromaculatus), which have intermediate dependence on the moving littoral zone, were somewhat ambiguous. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the FPC applies, at least under certain conditions, to this temperate river system. Our results can also provide an important basis from which to assess some costs and benefits of water level management strategies in large regulated temperate rivers.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2013

Topological and canonical kriging for design flood prediction in ungauged catchments: an improvement over a traditional regional regression approach?

In the United States, estimation of flood frequency quantiles at ungauged locations has been largely based on regional regression techniques that relate measurable catchment descriptors to flood quantiles. More recently, spatial interpolation techniques of point data have been shown to be effective for predicting streamflow statistics (i.e., flood flows and low-flow indices) in ungauged catchments. Literature reports successful applications of two techniques, canonical kriging, CK (or physiographical-space-based interpolation, PSBI), and topological kriging, TK (or top-kriging). CK performs the spatial interpolation of the streamflow statistic of interest in the two-dimensional space of catchment descriptors. TK predicts the streamflow statistic along river networks taking both the catchment area and nested nature of catchments into account. It is of interest to understand how these spatial interpolation methods compare with generalized least squares (GLS) regression, one of the most common approaches to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged locations. By means of a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure, the performance of CK and TK was compared to GLS regression equations developed for the prediction of 10, 50, 100 and 500 yr floods for 61 streamgauges in the southeast United States. TK substantially outperforms GLS and CK for the study area, particularly for large catchments. The performance of TK over GLS highlights an important distinction between the treatments of spatial correlation when using regression-based or spatial interpolation methods to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged locations. The analysis also shows that coupling TK with CK slightly improves the performance of TK; however, the improvement is marginal when compared to the improvement in performance over GLS.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2016

Mercury accumulation and the mercury-PCB-sex interaction in summer flounder

Patterns in the relative differences in contaminant concentrations between the sexes of mature fish may reveal important behavioral and physiological differences between the sexes. We determined whole-fish total mercury (Hg) concentrations in 23 female summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) and 27 male summer flounder from New Jersey coastal waters. To estimate the change in Hg concentration due to release of eggs at spawning, Hg concentration in the somatic tissue and ovaries of 5 of the 23 female summer flounder were also determined. To ascertain whether most of the Hg in the summer flounder was methylmercury (MeHg), whole-fish MeHg concentrations were determined in all 50 summer flounder. Whole-fish Hg concentrations averaged 113 ng/g for females and 111 ng/g for males. Thus, females were 2% higher in Hg concentration than males, on average, but the difference was not statistically significant. Based on Hg determinations in the somatic tissue and ovaries, we predicted that Hg concentration of females would increase by 3.6%, on average, immediately after spawning due to release of eggs. On average, 92% of the Hg in the summer flounder was MeHg. To determine whether the effect of sex on Hg concentration was significantly different from the effect of sex on polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentration, we paired our Hg determinations with PCB determinations from a previous study, and applied regression analysis. Sex significantly interacted with contaminant type (Hg or PCBs), as males were 43% higher in PCB concentration than females, whereas females were 2% higher in Hg concentration than males. Males eliminating Hg from their bodies at a faster rate than females was a likely explanation for this discrepancy between the two contaminant types. Overall, the Hg and PCB concentrations in the summer flounder were relatively low, and therefore our findings also had implications for continued operation of the summer flounder fishery.

Journal of Marine Science: Research & Development↗
USGS2011

Nitrate in the Mississippi River and its tributaries, 1980 to 2008: Are we making progress?

Changes in nitrate concentration and flux between 1980 and 2008 at eight sites in the Mississippi River basin were determined using a new statistical method that accommodates evolving nitrate behavior over time and produces flow-normalized estimates of nitrate concentration and flux that are independent of random variations in streamflow. The results show that little consistent progress has been made in reducing riverine nitrate since 1980, and that flow-normalized concentration and flux are increasing in some areas. Flow-normalized nitrate concentration and flux increased between 9 and 76% at four sites on the Mississippi River and a tributary site on the Missouri River, but changed very little at tributary sites on the Ohio, Iowa, and Illinois Rivers. Increases in flow-normalized concentration and flux at the Mississippi River at Clinton and Missouri River at Hermann were more than three times larger than at any other site. The increases at these two sites contributed much of the 9% increase in flow-normalized nitrate flux leaving the Mississippi River basin. At most sites, concentrations increased more at low and moderate streamflows than at high streamflows, suggesting that increasing groundwater concentrations are having an effect on river concentrations.

Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Missouri↗
USGS1996

Velocity structure of a bottom simulating reflector offshore Peru: Results from full waveform inversion

Much of our knowledge of the worldwide distribution of submarine gas hydrates comes from seismic observations of Bottom Simulating Reflectors (BSRs). Full waveform inversion has proven to be a reliable technique for studying the fine structure of BSRs using the compressional wave velocity. We applied a non-linear full waveform inversion technique to a BSR at a location offshore Peru. We first determined the large-scale features of seismic velocity variations using a statistical inversion technique to maximise coherent energy along travel-time curves. These velocities were used for a starting velocity model for the full waveform inversion, which yielded a detailed velocity/depth model in the vicinity of the BSR. We found that the data are best fit by a model in which the BSR consists of a thin, low-velocity layer. The compressional wave velocity drops from 2.15 km/s down to an average of 1.70 km/s in an 18m thick interval, with a minimum velocity of 1.62 km/s in a 6 m interval. The resulting compressional wave velocity was used to estimate gas content in the sediments. Our results suggest that the low velocity layer is a 6-18 m thick zone containing a few percent of free gas in the pore space. The presence of the BSR coincides with a region of vertical uplift. Therefore, we suggest that gas at this BSR is formed by a dissociation of hydrates at the base of the hydrate stability zone due to uplift and subsequently a decrease in pressure.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2004

Estimates of diffuse phosphorus sources in surface waters of the United States using a spatially referenced watershed model

The statistical watershed model SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) was used to estimate the sources and transport of total phosphorus (TP) in surface waters of the United States. We calibrated the model using stream measurements of TP from 336 watersheds of mixed land use and spatial data on topography, soils, stream hydrography, and land use (agriculture, forest, shrub/grass, urban). The model explained 87% of the spatial variability in log transformed stream TP flux (kg yr -1 ). Predictions of stream yield ( kg ha -1 yr -1 ) were typically within 45% of the observed values at the monitoring sites. The model identified appreciable effects of soils, streams, and reservoirs on TP transport, The estimated aquatic rates of phosphorus removal declined with increasing stream size and rates of water flushing in reservoirs (i.e. areal hydraulic loads). A phosphorus budget for the 2.9 million km2 Mississippi River Basin provides a detailed accounting of TP delivery to streams, the removal of TP in surface waters, and the stream export of TP from major interior watersheds for sources associated with each land-use type.

Water Science and Technology↗
USGS1974

Hydrology and trout populations of cold-water rivers of Michigan and Wisconsin

Statistical multiple-regression analyses showed significant relationships between trout populations and hydrologic parameters. Parameters showing the higher levels of significance were temperature, hardness of water, percentage of gravel bottom, percentage of bottom vegetation, variability of streamflow, and discharge per unit drainage area. Trout populations increase with lower levels of annual maximum water temperatures, with increase in water hardness, and with increase in percentage of gravel and bottom vegetation. Trout populations also increase with decrease in variability of streamflow, and with increase in discharge per unit drainage area. Most hydrologic parameters were significant when evaluated collectively, but no parameter, by itself, showed a high degree of correlation with trout populations in regression analyses that included all the streams sampled. Regression analyses of stream segments that were restricted to certain limits of hardness, temperature, or percentage of gravel bottom showed improvements in correlation. Analyses of trout populations, in pounds per acre and pounds per mile and hydrologic parameters resulted in regression equations from which trout populations could be estimated with standard errors of 89 and 84 per cent, respectively.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗
USGS1992

Statistical analysis of the radon-222 potential of rocks in Virginia, U.S.A.

More than 3,200 indoor radon-222 (222Rn) measurements were made seasonally in an area of about 1,000 square kilometers of the Coastal Plain and Piedmont physiographic provinces in Virginia, U.S.A. Results of these measurements indicate that some geological units are associated, on the average, with twice as much indoor222Rn as other geological units, and that indoor222Rn varies seasonally. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to test whether indoor222Rn concentrations for data gathered over the winter and summer seasons differ significantly by rock unit. The tests concluded that indoor222Rn concentrations for different rock units were not equal at the 5-percent significance level. The rocks associated with the highest median indoor222Rn concentration are specific rocks in the Mesozoic Culpeper basin, including shale and siltstone units with Jurassic diabase intrusives, and mica schists in the Piedmont physiographic province. The pre-Triassic Peters Creek Schist has the highest ranking in terms of indoor222Rn concentration. The rocks associated with the lowest indoor222Rn concentrations include coastal plain sediments, the Occoquan Granite, Falls Church Tonalite, Piney Branch Mafic and Ultramafic complex, and unnamed mafic and ultramafic inclusions, respectively. The rocks have been ranked according to observed222Rn concentration by transforming the average rank of indoor222Rn concentrations to z scores. ?? 1992 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

Environmental Geology and Water Sciences↗
USGS2020

Disentangling the effects of multiple fires on spatially interspersed sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) communities

Questions Relative to a landscape with a mosaic of two sagebrush community types and increasing fire frequency, we asked: (a) do vegetation characteristics vary significantly with number of times burned for each sagebrush community; (b) how do vegetation responses to different fire frequencies compare between the two sagebrush communities? Location Columbia Plateau Ecoregion, Washington, USA. Methods We sampled vegetation across a landscape that burned three times over a 10‐year period in two sagebrush community types that are interspersed on unique land forms: big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) communities that occur on small “mounds” and scabland sagebrush ( A. rigida ) communities that occur on surrounding “flats.” Spatially overlapping fires permitted a balanced sampling design to assess unburned and once‐, twice‐, and thrice‐burned locations for each land form/community type. We utilized a suite of statistical analyses to determine differences among plant functional groups and biomass among unburned/burned strata by land form and compared results between land forms. Results Big sagebrush and scabland sagebrush communities responded uniquely to multiple fires, due to different fuel loadings, fire severities, succession and invasion dynamics. Big sagebrush experienced nearly complete shrub loss and conversion from exotic‐invaded shrubland to exotic annual grassland after only one fire. In contrast, scabland sagebrush retained a minor shrub component and higher relative cover of native herbaceous species, even after three fires. Both communities retained cover of native perennial grasses, including shallow‐ and deep‐rooted species, likely reflecting decreasing fire intensity with number of times burned. Conclusions Despite different community‐level responses, increasing fire frequency is transforming the entire landscape to a non‐native/native grassland mix. Quantifying unique ecosystem responses to altered wildfire regimes is critical to understanding the relative resilience of communities to disturbance and their resistance to exotic species invasion (and community type conversion). Management actions may help to maintain spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems and fire‐tolerant native species.

Washington↗
USGS2021

A novel framework to predict relative habitat selection in aquatic systems: Applying machine learning and resource selection functions to acoustic telemetry data from multiple shark species

Resource selection functions (RSFs) have been widely applied to animal tracking data to examine relative habitat selection and to help guide management and conservation strategies. While readily used in terrestrial ecology, RSFs have yet to be extensively used within marine systems. As acoustic telemetry continues to be a pervasive approach within marine environments, incorporation of RSFs can provide new insights to help prioritize habitat protection and restoration to meet conservation goals. To overcome statistical hurdles and achieve high prediction accuracy, machine learning algorithms could be paired with RSFs to predict relative habitat selection for a species within and even outside the monitoring range of acoustic receiver arrays, making this a valuable tool for marine ecologists and resource managers. Here, we apply RSFs using machine learning to an acoustic telemetry dataset of four shark species to explore and predict species-specific habitat selection within a marine protected area. In addition, we also apply this RSF-machine learning approach to investigate predator-prey relationships by comparing and averaging tiger shark relative selection values with the relative selection values derived for eight potential prey-species. We provide methodological considerations along with a framework and flexible approach to apply RSFs with machine learning algorithms to acoustic telemetry data and suggest marine ecologists and resource managers consider adopting such tools to help guide both conservation and management strategies.

Buck Island Reef National Monument, St Croix↗
USGS2008

Spatial and temporal statistical analysis of bycatch data: Patterns of sea turtle bycatch in the North Atlantic

Loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) sea turtle distributions and movements in offshore waters of the western North Atlantic are not well understood despite continued efforts to monitor, survey, and observe them. Loggerhead and leatherback sea turtles are listed as endangered by the World Conservation Union, and thus anthropogenic mortality of these species, including fishing, is of elevated interest. This study quantifies spatial and temporal patterns of sea turtle bycatch distributions to identify potential processes influencing their locations. A Ripley's K function analysis was employed on the NOAA Fisheries Atlantic Pelagic Longline Observer Program data to determine spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal patterns of sea turtle bycatch distributions within the pattern of the pelagic fishery distribution. Results indicate that loggerhead and leatherback sea turtle catch distributions change seasonally, with patterns of spatial clustering appearing from July through October. The results from the space-time analysis indicate that sea turtle catch distributions are related on a relatively fine scale (30-200 km and 1-5 days). The use of spatial and temporal point pattern analysis, particularly K function analysis, is a novel way to examine bycatch data and can be used to inform fishing practices such that fishing could still occur while minimizing sea turtle bycatch. ?? 2008 NRC.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2019

Modelling gully-erosion susceptibility in a semi-arid region, Iran: Investigation of applicability of certainty factor and maximum entropy models

Gully erosion susceptibility mapping is a fundamental tool for land-use planning aimed at mitigating land degradation. However, the capabilities of some state-of-the-art data-mining models for developing accurate maps of gully erosion susceptibility have not yet been fully investigated. This study assessed and compared the performance of two different types of data-mining models for accurately mapping gully erosion susceptibility at a regional scale in Chavar, Ilam, Iran. The two methods evaluated were: Certainty Factor (CF), a bivariate statistical model; and Maximum Entropy (ME), an advanced machine learning model. Several geographic and environmental factors that can contribute to gully erosion were considered as predictor variables of gully erosion susceptibility. Based on an existing differential GPS survey inventory of gully erosion, a total of 63 eroded gullies were spatially randomly split in a 70:30 ratio for use in model calibration and validation, respectively. Accuracy assessments completed with the receiver operating characteristic curve method showed that the ME-based regional gully susceptibility map has an area under the curve (AUC) value of 88.6% whereas the CF-based map has an AUC of 81.8%. According to jackknife tests that were used to investigate the relative importance of predictor variables, aspect, distance to river, lithology and land use are the most influential factors for the spatial distribution of gully erosion susceptibility in this region of Iran. The gully erosion susceptibility maps produced in this study could be useful tools for land managers and engineers tasked with road development, urbanization and other future development.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2009

Specific Conductance and Dissolved-Solids Characteristics for the Green River and Muddy Creek, Wyoming, Water Years 1999-2008

Southwestern Wyoming is an area of diverse scenery, wildlife, and natural resources that is actively undergoing energy development. The U.S. Department of the Interior's Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative is a long-term science-based effort to assess and enhance aquatic and terrestrial habitats at a landscape scale, while facilitating responsible energy development through local collaboration and partnerships. Water-quality monitoring has been conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey on the Green River near Green River, Wyoming, and Muddy Creek near Baggs, Wyoming. This monitoring, which is being conducted in cooperation with State and other Federal agencies and as part of the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative, is in response to concerns about potentially increased dissolved solids in the Colorado River Basin as a result of energy development. Because of the need to provide real-time dissolved-solids concentrations for the Green River and Muddy Creek on the World Wide Web, the U.S. Geological Survey developed regression equations to estimate dissolved-solids concentrations on the basis of continuous specific conductance using relations between measured specific conductance and dissolved-solids concentrations. Specific conductance and dissolved-solids concentrations were less varied and generally lower for the Green River than for Muddy Creek. The median dissolved-solids concentration for the site on the Green River was 318 milligrams per liter, and the median concentration for the site on Muddy Creek was 943 milligrams per liter. Dissolved-solids concentrations ranged from 187 to 594 milligrams per liter in samples collected from the Green River during water years 1999-2008. Dissolved-solids concentrations ranged from 293 to 2,485 milligrams per liter in samples collected from Muddy Creek during water years 2006-08. The differences in dissolved-solids concentrations in samples collected from the Green River compared to samples collected from Muddy Creek reflect the different basin characteristics. Relations between specific conductance and dissolved-solids concentrations were statistically significant for the Green River (p-value less than 0.001) and Muddy Creek (p-value less than 0.001); therefore, specific conductance can be used to estimate dissolved-solids concentrations. Using continuous specific conductance values to estimate dissolved solids in real-time on the World Wide Web increases the amount and improves the timeliness of data available to water managers for assessing dissolved-solids concentrations in the Colorado River Basin.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2019

Predictive analysis using chemical-gene interaction networks consistent with observed endocrine activity and mutagenicity of U.S. streams

In a recent U.S. Geological Survey/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency study assessing >700 organic compounds in 38 streams, in vitro assays indicated generally low estrogen, androgen, and glucocorticoid receptor activities, but identified 13 surface waters with 17β estradiol equivalent (E2Eq) activities greater than the 1 ng/L level of concern for feminization of male fish. Among the 36 samples assayed for mutagenicity in the Salmonella bioassay (reported here), 25% were considered mutagenic (statistically significant slope and at least a two-fold increase in revertants/plate). Endocrine and mutagenic activities of the water samples were well correlated with each other and with the total number and cumulative concentrations of detected chemical contaminants. To test the predictive utility of knowledgebase-leveraging approaches, site-specific predicted chemical-gene (pCGA) and predicted analogous pathway-linked (pPLA) association networks identified in the Comparative Toxicogenomics Database were compared with observed endocrine/mutagenic bioactivities. We evaluated pCGA/pPLA patterns among sites by cluster analysis and principal component analysis and grouped the pPLA into broad mode-of-action classes. Measured E2Eq and mutagenic activities correlated well with predicted pathways. The pPLA analysis also revealed correlations with signaling, metabolic, and regulatory groups, suggesting that other effects pathways may be associated with chemical contaminants in these waters and indicating the need for broader bioassay coverage to assess potential adverse impacts.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2000

Atmospheric nitrogen in the Mississippi River Basin: Amissions, deposition and transport

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen has been cited as a major factor in the nitrogen saturation of forests in the north-eastern United States and as a contributor to the eutrophication of coastal waters, including the Gulf of Mexico near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Sources of nitrogen emissions and the resulting spatial patterns of nitrogen deposition within the Mississippi River Basin, however, have not been fully documented. An assessment of atmospheric nitrogen in the Mississippi River Basin was therefore conducted in 1998-1999 to: (1) evaluate the forms in which nitrogen is deposited from the atmosphere; (2) quantify the spatial distribution of atmospheric nitrogen deposition throughout the basin; and (3) relate locations of emission sources to spatial deposition patterns to evaluate atmospheric transport. Deposition data collected through the NADP/NTN (National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network) and CASTNet (Clean Air Status and Trends Network) were used for this analysis. NO(x) Tier 1 emission data by county was obtained for 1992 from the US Environmental Protection Agency (Emissions Trends Viewer CD, 1985-1995, version 1.0, September 1996) and NH3 emissions data was derived from the 1992 Census of Agriculture (US Department of Commerce. Census of Agriculture, US Summary and County Level Data, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Geographic Area series, 1995:1b) or the National Agricultural Statistics Service (US Department of Agriculture. National Agricultural Statistics Service Historical Data. Accessed 7/98 at URL, 1998. http://www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/hisdata.htm). The highest rates of wet deposition of NO3- were in the north-eastern part of the basin, downwind of electric utility plants and urban areas, whereas the highest rates of wet deposition of NH4+ were in Iowa, near the center of intensive agricultural activities in the Midwest. The lowest rates of atmospheric nitrogen deposition were on the western (windward) side of the basin, which suggests that most of the nitrogen deposited within the basin is derived from internal sources. Atmospheric transport eastward across the basin boundary is greater for NO3- than NH4+, but a significant amount of NH4+ is likely to be transported out of the basin through the formation of (NH4)2SO4 and NH4NO3 particles - a process that greatly increases the atmospheric residence time of NH4+. This process is also a likely factor in the atmospheric transport of nitrogen from the Midwest to upland forest regions in the North-East, such as the western Adirondack region of New York, where NH4+ constitutes 38% of the total wet deposition of N.

Science of Total Environment↗
USGS2026

Hazard potential of compound flooding from rainfall, storm surge, and groundwater in coastal New York and Connecticut

Compound flood events, the co-occurrence of multiple flood drivers, can result in flood hazard potential exceeding that of any single driver alone. To evaluate compound flooding in a semi-urbanized coastal area, historical records dating back to 1970 are used to study the co-occurrences of high precipitation, storm surge, and shallow groundwater conditions along the coastlines of New York and Connecticut. Joint return periods for coincident precipitation-surge events were computed using statistical dependence models and compared to the assumption of independence as a ratio, referred to here as a return period adjustment. Results indicate distinct seasonality where compound events in the area disproportionately occur in the cold season between October and April. Return period adjustments range from a factor of 1 to almost 9, demonstrating the range in precipitation-storm surge dependence across the study area. Across all 24 station triad locations, groundwater levels were elevated during times of precipitation- surge co-occurrence, reflecting the tendency for coastal storms and shallow groundwater conditions to co-occur seasonally. The result is a pseudo-trivariate compound flood hazard score and corresponding hazard map that integrates dependence between daily precipitation-surge events and overall monthly groundwater levels (as a precondition) into a relative compound hazard score. The location with the highest compound flood hazard score is on the south shore of Long Island, as well as locations across coastal Connecticut where groundwater levels compound the co-occurrence of heavy precipitation and storm surge.

Connecticut, New York↗
USGS2011

Characterization of salinity and selenium loading and land-use change in Montrose Arroyo, western Colorado, from 1992 to 2010

Salinity and selenium are naturally occurring and perva-sive in the lower Gunnison River Basin of Colorado, includ-ing the watershed of Montrose Arroyo. Although some of the salinity and selenium loading in the Montrose Arroyo study area is from natural sources, additional loading has resulted from the introduction of intensive irrigation in the water-shed. With increasing land-use change and the conversion from irrigated agricultural to urban land, land managers and stakeholders need information about the long-term effects of land-use change on salinity and selenium loading. In response to the need to advance salinity and selenium science, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Forum, and Colorado River Water Conservation District, developed a study to characterize salinity and selenium loading and how salinity and selenium sources may relate to land-use change in Montrose Arroyo. This report characterizes changes in salinity and selenium loading to Montrose Arroyo from March 1992 to February 2010 and the magnitude of land-use change between unirrigated desert, irrigated agricultural, and urban land-use/land-cover types, and discusses how the respective loads may relate to land-use change. Montrose Arroyo is an approximately 8-square-mile watershed in Montrose County in western Colorado. Salinity and selenium were studied in Montrose Arroyo in a 2001 study as part of a salinity- and selenium-control lateral project. The robust nature of the historical dataset indicated that Montrose Arroyo was a prime watershed for a follow-up study. Two sites from the 2001 study were used to monitor salinity and selenium loads in Montrose Arroyo in the follow-up study. Over the period of 2 water years and respective irrigation seasons (2008-2010), 27 water-quality samples were collected and streamflow measurements were made at the historical sites MA2 and MA4. Salinity and selenium concen-trations, loads, and streamflow were compared between the pre-lateral-project and post-growth periods and between the post-lateral-project and post-growth periods. No significant differences in streamflow, salinity (concen-tration and load), or selenium (concentration and load) were found at MA4 between the pre-lateral project and post-growth periods or between the post-lateral-project and post-growth periods. The statistical analysis indicated no significant dif-ferences in streamflow or salinity (both concentration and load) between the pre-lateral-project and post-growth periods or between the post-lateral-project and post-growth periods at MA2; however, selenium concentrations and loads were significantly greater between the pre-lateral-project and post-growth periods and between the post-lateral-project and post-growth periods at MA2. Land-use change between MA4 and MA2 may have contributed to the determined differences in selenium values, but the specific mechanisms causing the increases between periods are unknown. The size of the urbanized area in Montrose Arroyo was quantified for 1993, 2002, and 2009 by using a geographic information system (GIS) with imagery from the specified years. The greatest change in land use from 1993 to 2009 was the increase of urban land due to conversion from irrigated agricultural land. The conversion of previously unirrigated desert to urban land or irrigated agriculture could become more common if urbanization and development expands into the eastern part of the watershed because a majority of the un-urbanized land in eastern Montrose Arroyo is unirrigated desert. By applying GIS to the City of Montrose 2008 com-prehensive growth plan, it was estimated that approximately 786 acres of previously irrigated agricultural land will be converted to urban land and 689 acres of unirrigated desert will be converted to urban land under the plan scenario. New development on previously unirrigated land in shale areas would likely increase the potential for mobilization of sele-nium and salinity from new sources to Montrose Arroyo and the Lower Gunnison River Basin.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2023

Latency and geofence testing of wireless emergency alerts intended for the ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States of America

ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning (EEW) system for the West Coast of the United States, attempts to provides crucial warnings before strong shaking occurs. However, because the alerts are triggered only when an earthquake is already in progress, and the alert latencies and delivery times are platform dependent, the time between these warnings and the arrival of shaking is variable. The ShakeAlert system uses, among other public alerting platforms like a mobile phone operating system, smartphone apps, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency Integrated Public Alert & Warning System (IPAWS). IPAWS sends Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) informing people via their smartphones and other mobile devices about various events, such as natural hazards, child abductions, or public health information about COVID-19. However, little is known about the IPAWS delivery latencies. Given that people may have only a few seconds of notice after they receive an alert to take a protective action before they feel earthquake shaking, quantifying latencies is critical to understanding whether the IPAWS system is useful for EEW. In this study, we developed new methods to test the IPAWS distribution system's performance, both with devices in a controlled environment and as well as with a 2019 community-based feedback form, in Oakland and San Diego County, California, respectively. The controlled environment test used mobile phones (including smart and non-smart phones) and associated devices to determine alert receipt times; the community research form had participants self-report their receipt times. By triangulating the data between the controlled test environment and the community research, we determined the latency statistics as well as whether the geofence (the geographic area where the alert was intended to be sent) held broadly. We found that the latencies were similar between the two tests despite the large differences in population sizes. WEA messages were received within a median time frame of 6–12 s, and the geofence held with only a few exceptions. We use this latency to assess how the system would have performed in two large earthquakes, the 1989 M6.9 Loma Prieta and 2019 M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquakes, which both occurred near our WEA test locations. Our analysis revealed that had IPAWS been available during those earthquakes, particularly Loma Prieta, it would have provided crucial seconds of notice that damaging shaking was imminent in some locations relatively far from the epicenter. Further, we find affordable non-smart phones can receive WEAs as fast as smartphones. Finally, our new method can be used for latency and geospatial testing going forward for IPAWS and other similar alerting systems.

California↗