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At least 469 records · Page 26Linked to original sources

USGS2019

Coast to coast: High genomic connectivity in North American scoters

Dispersal shapes demographic processes and therefore is fundamental to understanding biological, ecological, and evolutionary processes acting within populations. However, assessing population connectivity in scoters ( Melanitta sp.) is challenging as these species have large spatial distributions that span remote landscapes, have varying nesting distributions (disjunct vs. continuous), exhibit unknown levels of dispersal, and vary in the timing of the formation of pair bonds (winter vs. fall/spring migration) that may influence the distribution of genetic diversity. Here, we used double‐digest restriction‐associated DNA sequence (ddRAD) and microsatellite genotype data to assess population structure within the three North American species of scoter (black scoter, M. americana ; white‐winged scoter, M. deglandi ; surf scoter, M. perspicillata ), and between their European congeners (common scoter, M. nigra ; velvet scoter, M. fusca ). We uncovered no or weak genomic structure (ddRAD Φ ST < 0.019; microsatellite F ST < 0.004) within North America but high levels of structure among European congeners (ddRAD Φ ST > 0.155, microsatellite F ST > 0.086). The pattern of limited genomic structure within North America is shared with other sea duck species and is often attributed to male‐biased dispersal. Further, migratory tendencies (east vs. west) of female surf and white‐winged scoters in central Canada are known to vary across years, providing additional opportunities for intracontinental dispersal and a mechanism for the maintenance of genomic connectivity across North America. In contrast, the black scoter had relatively elevated levels of divergence between Alaska and Atlantic sites and a second genetic cluster found in Alaska at ddRAD loci was concordant with its disjunct breeding distribution suggestive of a dispersal barrier (behavioral or physical). Although scoter populations appear to be connected through a dispersal network, a small percentage (<4%) of ddRAD loci had elevated divergence which may be useful in linking areas (nesting, molting, staging, and wintering) throughout the annual cycle.

North America↗

USGS1986

Research on polar bears in Alaska, 1983-1985

Research on the ecology and status of polar bear populations in Alaska has continued since 1967. Research was a joint U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/Alaska Department of Fish and Game effort until passage of the Marine Mammal Protection Act in 1972, and has been largely a Federal effort since then. In 1985, Alaskan polar beer research continues to be carried out by the Research Division of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (DOI). A recent reorganization removed authority for ecological research in Alaska from the Denver Wildlife Research Center, and vested it with the newly created Alaska Office of Fish and Wildlife Research. This new research office is the center for Federal fish and Wildlife related research throughout the state of Alaska and in its coastal waters. Although the responsibility for polar bear research lies with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, numerous other organizations and agencies deserve mention for their cooperation and support of the ongoing research. These include: the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (DOC), The U.S. Minerals Management Service (DOI), The Canadian Wildlife Service, The Northwest Territories Wildlife Service, the Yukon Wildlife Service, Dome Petroleum Ltd, Gulf Canada, and the Alaska Department of Fish and game.

Alaska↗

USGS2013

Temporal variation and scale in movement-based resource selection functions

A common population characteristic of interest in animal ecology studies pertains to the selection of resources. That is, given the resources available to animals, what do they ultimately choose to use? A variety of statistical approaches have been employed to examine this question and each has advantages and disadvantages with respect to the form of available data and the properties of estimators given model assumptions. A wealth of high resolution telemetry data are now being collected to study animal population movement and space use and these data present both challenges and opportunities for statistical inference. We summarize traditional methods for resource selection and then describe several extensions to deal with measurement uncertainty and an explicit movement process that exists in studies involving high-resolution telemetry data. Our approach uses a correlated random walk movement model to obtain temporally varying use and availability distributions that are employed in a weighted distribution context to estimate selection coefficients. The temporally varying coefficients are then weighted by their contribution to selection and combined to provide inference at the population level. The result is an intuitive and accessible statistical procedure that uses readily available software and is computationally feasible for large datasets. These methods are demonstrated using data collected as part of a large-scale mountain lion monitoring study in Colorado, USA.

Statistical Methodology↗

USGS2018

Using spatially‐explicit capture–recapture models to explain variation in seasonal density patterns of sympatric ursids

Understanding how environmental factors interact to determine the abundance and distribution of animals is a primary goal of ecology, and fundamental to the conservation of wildlife populations. Studies of these relationships, however, often assume static environmental conditions, and rarely consider effects of competition with ecologically similar species. In many parts of their shared ranges, grizzly bears Ursus arctos and American black bears U. americanus have nearly complete dietary overlap and share similar life history traits. We therefore tested the hypothesis that density patterns of both bear species would reflect seasonal variation in available resources, with areas of higher primary productivity supporting higher densities of both species. We also hypothesized that interspecific competition would influence seasonal density patterns. Specifically, we predicted that grizzly bear density would be locally reduced due to the ability of black bears to more efficiently exploit patchy food resources such as seasonally abundant fruits. To test our hypotheses, we used detections of 309 grizzly and 597 black bears from two independent genetic sampling methods in spatially‐explicit capture–recapture (SECR) models. Our results suggest grizzly bear density was lower in areas of high black bear density during spring and summer, although intraspecific densities were also important, particularly during the breeding season. Black bears had lower densities in areas of high grizzly bear density in spring; however, density of black bears in early and late summer was best explained by primary productivity. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that smaller‐bodied, more abundant black bears may influence the density patterns of behaviorally‐dominant grizzly bears through exploitative competition. We also suggest that seasonal variation in resource availability be considered in efforts to relate environmental conditions to animal density.

Montana↗

USGS2020

Effects of snowpack, temperature, and disease on the demography of a wild population of amphibians

Understanding the demographic consequences of interactions among pathogens, hosts, and weather conditions is critical in determining how amphibian populations respond to disease and in identifying site-specific conservation actions that can be developed to bolster persistence of amphibian populations. We investigated population dynamics in Boreal Toads ( Anaxyrus boreas ) relative to abiotic (fall temperatures and snowpack) and biotic (the abundance of another anuran host and disease) characteristics of the local environment in Wyoming, USA. We used capture–recapture data and a multistate model where state was treated as a hidden Markov process to incorporate disease state uncertainty and assess our a priori hypotheses. Our results indicated that snowpack during the coldest week of winter is more influential to toad survival, disease transition probabilities, and the population-level prevalence of the amphibian chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ) in the spring, than temperatures in the fall or the presence of another host. As hypothesized, apparent survival at low (i.e., <25 cm) snowpack (0.22; confidence interval [CI] = 0.15–0.31) was lower than apparent survival at high snowpack (90.65; CI = 0.50–0.78). Our findings highlight the potential for local environmental factors, like snowpack, to influence disease and host persistence, and demonstrate the ecological complexity of disease effects on population demography in natural environments. This work further emphasizes the need for improved understanding of how climate change may influence the relationships among pathogens, hosts, and their environment for wild animal populations challenged by disease.

Wyoming↗

USGS2018

Effect of climate change on disease spread in wildlife

A growing body of evidence indicates that climate change alone, or acting synergistically with current anthropogenic threats, is affecting the health of wild populations of aquatic and terrestrial wildlife. Measurable by-products of climate change include elevated atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, higher average global temperatures; variations in global precipitation patterns, rising and warming oceans, altered hydrographs of rivers, and increased mid-continental drying during summer. These consequences affect the terrestrial environment through shifts in phenology, vegetation cover, and fire regimes. Warmer ocean temperatures, increased acidification, rise in sea levels, and reduction in sea ice cover are also leading to widespread ecological changes in marine systems. Wildlife populations face a variety of climate-related pressures, such as changes in animal distribution or density, limitation of food resources, and alteration to critical habitats. The increased potential for emergence and resurgence of diseases that are responsive to environmental conditions also has implications for wildlife populations. Shifts in temperature or other climatic factors may directly affect the incidence of disease in wildlife by altering host-pathogen interactions, promoting vector populations or allowing new ranges for vectors, or reducing development times for parasites. A number of examples from both field and laboratory studies have demonstrated a clear link between warming environments and disease spread. Many climate-related environmental changes also influence wildlife health indirectly. For example, increasing temperatures, in combination with shifts in rainfall and humidity, may aggravate current trends for water resource limitation and habitat degradation or destruction and lead to increased crowding of animal populations, thereby promoting transmission opportunities of pathogens within populations or across species. Although it may be difficult to disentangle the influences of other anthropogenic changes from the direct effects of warming, some ecosystems provide especially useful models for studying climate-related disease spread in wildlife. For example, the effects of climate change on parasite dynamics may be easily observed in the Arctic, where environmental changes are occurring rapidly, anthropogenic influences are relatively limited, and biodiversity is generally low. Marine ecosystems are also undergoing rapid rates of change and may be vulnerable to a variety of natural and anthropogenic perturbations. Although many factors affect the health of organisms in ocean environments, temperature has been clearly linked to an increase in disease prevalence among sessile organisms such as corals. In this chapter, we discuss observed and predicted changes to wildlife health resulting from climate change. Our review will not include all aspects of wildlife health, but will instead focus on established or suspected links between climate drivers and disease spread and discuss examples from the current literature. Here, we define disease spread to include: 1) change in geographical or altitudinal distribution of pathogens, parasites, and vectors and the diseases they cause; 2) change in prevalence or severity of disease; and 3) emergence of novel diseases. Additionally, because wildlife species serve as reservoirs for zoonotic diseases that affect both animals and humans, we include select examples of the effect of climate change on the capacity of wildlife to harbor and spread these disease agents.

Book chapter↗

USGS2013

The roles of large top predators in coastal ecosystems: new insights from long term ecological research

During recent human history, human activities such as overhunting and habitat destruction have severely impacted many large top predator populations around the world. Studies from a variety of ecosystems show that loss or diminishment of top predator populations can have serious consequences for population and community dynamics and ecosystem stability. However, there are relatively few studies of the roles of large top predators in coastal ecosystems, so that we do not yet completely understand what could happen to coastal areas if large top predators are extirpated or significantly reduced in number. This lack of knowledge is surprising given that coastal areas around the globe are highly valued and densely populated by humans, and thus coastal large top predator populations frequently come into conflict with coastal human populations. This paper reviews what is known about the ecological roles of large top predators in coastal systems and presents a synthesis of recent work from three coastal eastern US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites where long-term studies reveal what appear to be common themes relating to the roles of large top predators in coastal systems. We discuss three specific themes: (1) large top predators acting as mobile links between disparate habitats, (2) large top predators potentially affecting nutrient and biogeochemical dynamics through localized behaviors, and (3) individual specialization of large top predator behaviors. We also discuss how research within the LTER network has led to enhanced understanding of the ecological roles of coastal large top predators. Highlighting this work is intended to encourage further investigation of the roles of large top predators across diverse coastal aquatic habitats and to better inform researchers and ecosystem managers about the importance of large top predators for coastal ecosystem health and stability.

Florida;Georgia;Massachusetts↗

USGS2021

Population density and stream-habitat relations of the Yellowcheek Darter (Nothonotus moorei) among the headwaters of the Little Red River in Arkansas

Nothonotus moorei (Yellowcheek Darter [YCD]) is an endangered species endemic to the headwaters of the Little Red River in north-central Arkansas. Population decline, habitat loss and fragmentation, and threats from land use and seasonal drought necessitate monitoring of population density and distribution to determine ecological and habitat associations. We evaluated YCD density and associated stream-habitat variables from 9 sites in the South Fork, Archey Fork, Middle Fork, and Beech Fork of the Little Red River from March to April 2018. Yellowcheek Darters were present at all 9 sites and 19 of 23 riffles sampled. Densities were generally comparable or higher than reported in previous studies, and we collected YCD at some sites at which they were considered previously extirpated, suggesting a rather stable population and evidence of recolonization of some sites since they were last surveyed. Yellowcheek Darter density was significantly negatively related to substrate embeddedness, and the consistent relation to embeddedness in this study and other studies suggest that this species is vulnerable to sedimentation.

Arkansas↗

USGS2019

Nonlinear reaction–diffusion process models improve inference for population dynamics

Partial differential equations (PDEs) are a useful tool for modeling spatiotemporal dynamics of ecological processes. However, as an ecological process evolves, we need statistical models that can adapt to changing dynamics as new data are collected. We developed a model that combines an ecological diffusion equation and logistic growth to characterize colonization processes of a population that establishes long-term equilibrium over a heterogeneous environment. We also developed a homogenization strategy to statistically upscale the PDE for faster computation and adopted a hierarchical framework to accommodate multiple data sources collected at different spatial scales. We highlighted the advantages of using a logistic reaction component instead of a Malthusian component when population growth demonstrates asymptotic behavior. As a case study, we demonstrated that our model improves spatiotemporal abundance forecasts of sea otters in Glacier Bay, Alaska. Furthermore, we predicted spatially varying local equilibrium abundances as a result of environmentally driven diffusion and density-regulated growth. Integrating equilibrium abundances over the study area in our application enabled us to infer the overall carrying capacity of sea otters in Glacier Bay, Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Using gene transcription to assess ecological and anthropological stressors in brown bears

Increasingly, population- and ecosystem-level health assessments are performed using sophisticated molecular tools. Advances in molecular technology enable the identification of synergistic effects of multiple stressors on the individual physiology of different species. Brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) are an apex predator; thus, they are ideal candidates for detecting potentially ecosystem-level systemic perturbations using molecular-based tools. We used gene transcription to analyze 130 brown bear samples from three National Parks and Preserves in Alaska. Although the populations we studied are apparently stable in abundance and exist within protected and intact environments, differences in transcript profiles were noted. The most prevalent differences were among locations. The transcript patterns among groups reflect the influence of environmental factors, such as nutritional status, disease, and xenobiotic exposure. However, these profiles also likely represent baselines for each unique environment by which future measures can be made to identify early indication of population-level changes due to, for example, increasing Arctic temperatures. Some of those environmental changes are predicted to be potentially positive for brown bears, but other effects such as the manifestation of disease or indirect effects of oceanic acidification may produce negative impacts.

Alaska↗

USGS1982

Social organization in a nesting population of eastern willets ( Catoptrophorus semipalmatus )

The breeding ecology of eastern Willets ( Catoptrophorus semipalmatus ) was studied over a 3-yr period in a salt marsh on the Atlantic coast of Virginia. During the study, 171 adults were color-marked. Willets are strictly monogamous and show strong site and mate fidelity from year to year. Normally a pair bond dissolves only after one member dies or fails to return in the spring. With an estimated annual adult mortality of 15%, the average life of a pair bond is 3 yr. The sexes share in most aspects of breeding, including brood-rearing, but females abandon both mate and brood about 2 weeks after the chicks hatch. Males apparently incubate at night and sometimes relieve the female at the nest during the middle of the day. In this area Willets defend separate nesting and feeding territories, though nest-site defense decreases through the incubation period. When mates are lost, males retain their original nesting and feeding territories, while females pair with available mates near their original nesting territory. Females compete for mates, and males select the most aggressive females. Nesting was particularly synchronous in lowland marsh sites, where the onset of egg laying was slightly earlier than in upland sites. Nest density was the highest reported for any scolopacid, and the highest densities were in sites closest to the marsh. Nest spacing is achieved through agonistic behavior, but there is evidence of a counter-tendency leading to nest clumping. Several features of the Willet social system resemble characteristics typical of colonial species of birds. These are discussed along with other aspects of social organization and the selective forces operating on it.

The Auk↗

USGS2004

Detecting warning signs of trouble within population fluctuations: using capture-recapture modeling to uncover changes in population dynamics leading to declines

An intensive mark-recapture/resighting program has been carried out on the Roseate Terns nesting at Falkner Island, Connecticut, since the late 1980s as part of a regional study of the metapopulation dynamics and ecology of the endangered Northwest Atlantic breeding population of this species. Substantial losses of tern eggs and chicks to predation at this colony site began in 1996 when at least five Black-crowned Night-Herons started nocturnal raids. This depredation has been a major factor in the reduction of productivity from an average of about 1.0 chicks/pair for the 10 years before night-heron predation began to as low as about 0.2 chicks/pair in 2002. Recent capture-recapture modelling analyses have detected other important impacts on the population dynamics of the Roseate Terns at this site including a reduction by about half in the 'development-of-residency' rates of first-time breeders, and a substantial decline in the local 'survival-and-fidelity' rates of experienced breeders believed due mostly to increased immigration rates to other colony sites.

Annual Meeting of the Association of Field Ornitho↗

USGS2001

Sex-biased gene flow in spectacled eiders (Anatidae): Inferences from molecular markers with contrasting modes of inheritance

Genetic markers that differ in mode of inheritance and rate of evolution (a sex-linked Z-specific microsatellite locus, five biparentally inherited microsatellite loci, and maternally inherited mitochondrial [mtDNA] sequences) were used to evaluate the degree of spatial genetic structuring at macro- and microgeographic scales, among breeding regions and local nesting populations within each region, respectively, for a migratory sea duck species, the spectacled eider ( Somateria fisheri ). Disjunct and declining breeding populations coupled with sex-specific differences in seasonal migratory patterns and life history provide a series of hypotheses regarding rates and directionality of gene flow among breeding populations from the Indigirka River Delta, Russia, and the North Slope and Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. The degree of differentiation in mtDNA haplotype frequency among breeding regions and populations within regions was high (ϕ CT = 0.189, P < 0.01; ϕ SC = 0.059, P < 0.01, respectively). Eleven of 17 mtDNA haplotypes were restricted to a single breeding region. Genetic differences among regions were considerably lower for nuclear DNA loci (sex-linked: ϕ ST = 0.001, P > 0.05; biparentally inherited microsatellites: mean θ = 0.001, P > 0.05) than was observed for mtDNA. Using models explicitly designed for uniparental and biparentally inherited genes, estimates of spatial divergence based on nuclear and mtDNA data together with elements of the species' breeding ecology were used to estimate effective population size and degree of male and female gene flow. Differences in the magnitude and spatial patterns of gene correlations for maternally inherited and nuclear genes revealed that females exhibit greater natal philopatry than do males. Estimates of generational female and male rates of gene flow among breeding regions differed markedly (3.67 × 10 −4 and 1.28 × 10 −2 , respectively). Effective population size for mtDNA was estimated to be at least three times lower than that for biparental genes (30,671 and 101,528, respectively). Large disparities in population sizes among breeding areas greatly reduces the proportion of total genetic variance captured by dispersal, which may accelerate rates of inbreeding (i.e., promote higher coancestries) within populations due to nonrandom pairing of males with females from the same breeding population.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring

The ongoing recovery of terrestrial large carnivores in North America and Europe is accompanied by intense controversy. On the one hand, reestablishment of large carnivores entails a recovery of their most important ecological role, predation. On the other hand, societies are struggling to relearn how to live with apex predators that kill livestock, compete for game species, and occasionally injure or kill people. Those responsible for managing these species and mitigating conflict often lack fundamental information due to a long-standing challenge in ecology: How do we draw robust population-level inferences for elusive animals spread over immense areas? Here we showcase the application of an effective tool for spatially explicit tracking and forecasting of wildlife population dynamics at scales that are relevant to management and conservation. We analyzed the world’s largest dataset on carnivores comprising more than 35,000 noninvasively obtained DNA samples from over 6,000 individual brown bears ( Ursus arctos ), gray wolves ( Canis lupus ), and wolverines ( Gulo gulo ). Our analyses took into account that not all individuals are detected and, even if detected, their fates are not always known. We show unequivocal quantitative evidence of large carnivore recovery in northern Europe, juxtaposed with the finding that humans are the single-most important factor driving the dynamics of these apex predators. We present maps and forecasts of the spatiotemporal dynamics of large carnivore populations, transcending national boundaries and management regimes.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2015

Winter habitat associations of blackbirds and starlings wintering in the south-central United States

Birds can cause extensive crop damage in the United States. In some regions, depredating species comprise a substantial portion of the total avian population, emphasizing their importance both economically and ecologically. We used the National Audubon Society Christmas Bird Count data from the south-central United States and mixed-effects models to identify habitat factors associated with population trend and abundance for 5 species: red-winged blackbird ( Agelaius phoeniceus ), common grackle ( Quiscalus quiscula ), rusty blackbird ( Euphagus carolinus ), Brewer’s blackbird ( Euphagus cyanocephalus ), and European starling ( Sturnus vulgaris ). Overall, we found positive associations between bird abundance and agricultural land-cover for all species. Relationships between abundance and other land-cover types were species-specific, often with contrasting relationships among species. Likewise, we found no consistent patterns among abundance and climate. Of the 5 species, only red-winged blackbirds had a significant population trend in our study area, increasing annually by 2.4%. There was marginal evidence to suggest population increases for rusty blackbirds, whereas all other species showed no trend in population size within our study area. Our study provides managers who are interested in limiting crop damage in the south-central United States with novel information on habitat associations in the region that could be used to improve management and control actions.

Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗

USGS2023

A genetic warning system for a hierarchically structured wildlife monitoring framework

Genetic variation is a well-known indicator of population fitness yet is not typically included in monitoring programs for sensitive species. Additionally, most programs monitor populations at one scale, which can lead to potential mismatches with ecological processes critical to species' conservation. Recently developed methods generating hierarchically nested population units (i.e., clusters of varying scales) for greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) have identified population trend declines across spatiotemporal scales to help managers target areas for conservation. The same clusters used as a proxy for spatial scale can alert managers to local units (i.e., neighborhood-scale) with low genetic diversity, further facilitating identification of management targets. We developed a genetic warning system utilizing previously developed hierarchical population units to identify management-relevant areas with low genetic diversity within the greater sage-grouse range. Within this warning system we characterized conservation concern thresholds based on values of genetic diversity and developed a statistical model for microsatellite data to robustly estimate these values for hierarchically nested populations. We found that 41 of 224 neighborhood-scale clusters had low genetic diversity, 23 of which were coupled with documented local population trend decline. We also found evidence of cross-scale low genetic diversity in the small and isolated Washington population, unlikely to be reversed through typical local management actions alone. The combination of low genetic diversity and a declining population suggests relatively high conservation concern. Our findings could further facilitate conservation action prioritization in combination with population trend assessments and (or) local information, and act as a base-line of genetic diversity for future comparison. Importantly, the approach we used is broadly applicable across taxa.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2014

Lack of sex-biased dispersal promotes fine-scale genetic structure in alpine ungulates

Identifying patterns of fine-scale genetic structure in natural populations can advance understanding of critical ecological processes such as dispersal and gene flow across heterogeneous landscapes. Alpine ungulates generally exhibit high levels of genetic structure due to female philopatry and patchy configuration of mountain habitats. We assessed the spatial scale of genetic structure and the amount of gene flow in 301 Dall’s sheep ( Ovis dalli dalli ) at the landscape level using 15 nuclear microsatellites and 473 base pairs of the mitochondrial (mtDNA) control region. Dall’s sheep exhibited significant genetic structure within contiguous mountain ranges, but mtDNA structure occurred at a broader geographic scale than nuclear DNA within the study area, and mtDNA structure for other North American mountain sheep populations. No evidence of male-mediated gene flow or greater philopatry of females was observed; there was little difference between markers with different modes of inheritance (pairwise nuclear DNA F ST = 0.004–0.325; mtDNA F ST = 0.009–0.544), and males were no more likely than females to be recent immigrants. Historical patterns based on mtDNA indicate separate northern and southern lineages and a pattern of expansion following regional glacial retreat. Boundaries of genetic clusters aligned geographically with prominent mountain ranges, icefields, and major river valleys based on Bayesian and hierarchical modeling of microsatellite and mtDNA data. Our results suggest that fine-scale genetic structure in Dall’s sheep is influenced by limited dispersal, and structure may be weaker in populations occurring near ancestral levels of density and distribution in continuous habitats compared to other alpine ungulates that have experienced declines and marked habitat fragmentation.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

Effects of a non-native biocontrol weevil, Larinus planus, and other emerging threats on populations of the federally threatened Pitcher's thistle, Cirsium pitcheri

Larinus planus Frabicius (Curculionidae), is a seed-eating weevil that was inadvertently introduced into the US and was subsequently distributed in the US and Canada for the control of noxious thistle species of rangelands. It has been detected recently in the federally threatened Pitcher's thistle (Cirsium pitcheri). We assayed weevil damage in a natural population of Pitcher's thistle at Whitefish Dunes State Park, Door County, WI and quantified the impact on fecundity. We then estimated the impact of this introduced weevil and other emerging threats on two natural, uninvaded populations of Pitcher's thistle for which we have long-term demographic data for 16 yr (Wilderness State Park, Emmet County, MI) and 23 yr (Miller High Dunes, Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, Porter County, IN). We used transition matrices to determine growth rates and project the potential effects of weevil damage, inbreeding, goldfinch predation, and vegetative succession on Pitcher's thistle population viability. Based on our models, weevil seed predation reduced population growth rate by 10–12%, but this reduction was enough to reduce time to extinction from 24 yr to 13 yr and 8 yr to 5 yr in the MI and IN population, respectively. This impact is particularly severe, given most populations of Pitcher's thistle throughout its range hover near or below replacement. This is the first report of unanticipated ecological impacts from a biocontrol agent on natural populations of Cirsium pitcheri.

Biological Conservation↗