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USGS2010

The PRISM3D paleoenvironmental reconstruction

The Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) paleoenvironmental reconstruction is an internally consistent and comprehensive global synthesis of a past interval of relatively warm and stable climate. It is regularly used in model studies that aim to better understand Pliocene climate, to improve model performance in future climate scenarios, and to distinguish model-dependent climate effects. The PRISM reconstruction is constantly evolving in order to incorporate additional geographic sites and environmental parameters, and is continuously refined by independent research findings. The new PRISM three dimensional (3D) reconstruction differs from previous PRISM reconstructions in that it includes a subsurface ocean temperature reconstruction, integrates geochemical sea surface temperature proxies to supplement the faunal-based temperature estimates, and uses numerical models for the first time to augment fossil data. Here we describe the components of PRISM3D and describe new findings specific to the new reconstruction. Highlights of the new PRISM3D reconstruction include removal of Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes and creation of open waterways in locations where the current bedrock elevation is less than 25m above modern sea level, due to the removal of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the reduction of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. The mid-Piacenzian oceans were characterized by a reduced east-west temperature gradient in the equatorial Pacific, but PRISM3D data do not imply permanent El Niño conditions. The reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient that characterized previous PRISM reconstructions is supported by significant displacement of vegetation belts toward the poles, is extended into the Arctic Ocean, and is confirmed by multiple proxies in PRISM3D. Arctic warmth coupled with increased dryness suggests the formation of warm and salty paleo North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and a more vigorous thermohaline circulation system that may have provided the enhanced ocean heat transport necessary to move warm surface water to the Arctic. New deep ocean temperature data also suggests greater warmth and further southward penetration of paleo NADW.

Stratigraphy↗

USGS2012

A circulation modeling approach for evaluating the conditions for shoreline instabilities

Analytical models predict the growth (instability) of shoreline salients when deep-water waves approach the coast from highly oblique angles, contrary to classical shoreline change models in which shoreline salients can only dissipate. Using the process-based wave, circulation, and sediment transport model Delft3D, we test this prediction for simulated bathymetric and wave characteristics approximating the open-ocean conditions at Duck, North Carolina. We consider two cases: a uniform coast with a varying wave approach angle, and a bathymetry with coastal salients and a single high-angle boundary wave condition. Incident wave conditions include a swell case with no wind and a wind-wave case with active local wave regeneration by wind. The uniform-coast tests predict transport maxima at oblique wave angles for both wave cases, indicating the potential for shoreline instabilities, similar to the analytical models. However, the critical angle for instability is much higher in the wind-wave case. Our tests with coastal salients agree with previous findings that a minimum salient length scale may be required for the instability effect to be active. Here, a salient with a longshore scale of 4 km results in transport divergence (erosion; no instability) at the salient crest while an 8 km salient results in transport convergence (accretion; instability) at the crest.

North Carolina↗

USGS2022

Data-driven modeling of wind waves in upper Delaware Bay with living shorelines

Living shoreline projects have been built to preserve coastal ecosystems under future climate change and sea level rise. To quantify the wave power variation across living shorelines, the wave characteristics around the constructed oyster reefs (CORs) in upper Delaware Bay were investigated in this study. Wave parameters seaward and shoreward of CORs were recorded by wave gauges in early 2018. Four winter storms happened in this period and induced strong winds and coastal flooding at the study site. To estimate the wind wave characteristics across the CORs on a yearly basis, soft computing-based models combining fully connected neural networks and long short-term memory were developed to extend the two-month energetic wave measurements. The results show that when CORs were emergent or slightly submerged, the averaged wave height attenuation was about 39.8% from the offshore gauge to the nearshore gauge (behind CORs) during 2018–2020, owing to the combined effect of nearshore bathymetric changes and CORs. Furthermore, it was found that the annually averaged wave power reduction from offshore to nearshore at the study site was about 30.0% in 2018, 2019, and 2020. This study provides a novel framework to predict long-term wave characteristics based on short-term wave measurements using soft computing-based models.

New Jersey↗

USGS2024

Physics-based satellite-derived bathymetry (SDB) using Landsat OLI images

The estimation of depth in optically shallow waters using satellite imagery can be efficient and cost-effective. Active sensors measure the distance traveled by an emitted laser pulse propagating through the water with high precision and accuracy if the bottom peak intensity of the waveform is greater than the noise level. However, passive optical imaging of optically shallow water involves measuring the radiance after the sunlight undergoes downward attenuation on the way to the sea floor, and the reflected light is then attenuated while moving back upward to the water surface. The difficulty of satellite-derived bathymetry (SDB) arises from the fact that the measured radiance is a result of a complex association of physical elements, mainly the optical properties of the water, bottom reflectance, and depth. In this research, we attempt to apply physics-based algorithms to solve this complex problem as accurately as possible to overcome the limitation of having only a few known values from a multispectral sensor. Major analysis components are atmospheric correction, the estimation of water optical properties from optically deep water, and the optimization of bottom reflectance as well as the water depth. Specular reflection of the sky radiance from the water surface is modeled in addition to the typical atmospheric correction. The physical modeling of optically dominant components such as dissolved organic matter, phytoplankton, and suspended particulates allows the inversion of water attenuation coefficients from optically deep pixels. The atmospheric correction and water attenuation results are used in the ocean optical reflectance equation to solve for the bottom reflectance and water depth. At each stage of the solution, physics-based models and a physically valid, constrained Levenberg–Marquardt numerical optimization technique are used. The physics-based algorithm is applied to Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI) imagery over the shallow coastal zone of Guam, Key West, and Puerto Rico. The SDB depths are compared to airborne lidar depths, and the root mean squared error (RMSE) is mostly less than 2 m over water as deep as 30 m. As the initial choice of bottom reflectance is critical, along with the bottom reflectance library, we describe a pure bottom unmixing method based on eigenvector analysis to estimate unknown site-specific bottom reflectance.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2024

Spatio-temporal distribution of adult Pacific lamprey Entosphenus tridentatus relative to habitat fragmentation

Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ), a fish species native to the Pacific Northwest (USA), have distinctive cultural and ecological value but determining their spatial and temporal distribution is challenging due to a general lack systematic monitoring. In this study, we used counts of Pacific lamprey redds to model the probability of occurrence and abundance of Pacific lamprey based on environmental covariates including artificial barriers, assuming higher predicted lamprey redds translates to more suitable spawning habitats. Using generalized linear mixed zero-inflated models, results suggest that Pacific lamprey abundance was generally lower in high gradient streams, further from the ocean. Stream reaches with warmer spring water temperatures and greater historical median spring flows supported higher abundances. Lamprey occurrence was primarily influenced by spring water temperatures and distance from the ocean. We further observed that when streams warm beyond 18°C, confidence intervals around the abundance estimates widen and zero-inflation increases, indicating a decrease in occurrence. One objective of the study was to recommend where barrier removal or restoration should be prioritized to increase passage and thus access to upstream habitats. We considered artificial barriers to primarily influence the probability of occurrence through access. The barrier variable in this model had a negative effect on the probability of lamprey occurrence, but it was not a strong predictor in the model. While we are not able to suggest specific locations that would most benefit barrier removal or improvement based on these model results, we can identify the watersheds with a higher probability to support Pacific lamprey and provide potential additional habitats by improving habitat connectivity. Focusing restoration and/ or removal of barriers on watersheds in the Mid-South region of the Oregon Coast (i.e., Alsea, Siuslaw, Coos, Coquille, and Sixes rivers) with higher habitat suitability could prioritize use of limited funds, increase the probability of benefiting Pacific lamprey, and potentially other native lampreys and migratory (e.g., salmon, steelhead; Oncorhynchus ) species. Although this manuscript focuses on the Oregon Coast region, the methods are transferrable to other regions where Pacific lamprey are present.

Oregon↗

USGS2021

Sea state from single optical images: A methodology to derive wind-generated ocean waves from cameras, drones and satellites

Sea state is a key variable in ocean and coastal dynamics. The sea state is either sparsely measured by wave buoys and satellites or modelled over large scales. Only a few attempts have been devoted to sea state measurements covering a large domain; in particular its estimation from optical images. With optical technologies becoming omnipresent, optical images offer incomparable spatial resolution from diverse sensors such as shore-based cameras, airborne drones (unmanned aerial vehicles/UAVs), or satellites. Here, we present a standalone methodology to derive the water surface elevation anomaly induced by wind-generated ocean waves from optical imagery. The methodology was tested on drone and satellite images and compared against ground truth. The results show a clear dependence on the relative azimuth view angle in relation to the wave crest. A simple correction is proposed to overcome this bias. Overall, the presented methodology offers a practical way of estimating ocean waves for a wide range of applications.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2011

Modeling sulfate reduction in methane hydrate-bearing continental margin sediments: Does a sulfate-methane transition require anaerobic oxidation of methane?

The sulfate‐methane transition (SMT), a biogeochemical zone where sulfate and methane are metabolized, is commonly observed at shallow depths (1–30 mbsf) in methane‐bearing marine sediments. Two processes consume sulfate at and above the SMT, anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) and organoclastic sulfate reduction (OSR). Differentiating the relative contribution of each process is critical to estimate methane flux into the SMT, which, in turn, is necessary to predict deeper occurrences of gas hydrates in continental margin sediments. To evaluate the relative importance of these two sulfate reduction pathways, we developed a diagenetic model to compute the pore water concentrations of sulfate, methane, and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). By separately tracking DIC containing 12 C and 13 C, the model also computes δ 13 C‐DIC values. The model reproduces common observations from methane‐rich sediments: a well‐defined SMT with no methane above and no sulfate below and a δ 13 C‐DIC minimum at the SMT. The model also highlights the role of upward diffusing 13 C‐enriched DIC in contributing to the carbon isotope mass balance of DIC. A combination of OSR and AOM, each consuming similar amounts of sulfate, matches observations from Site U1325 (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 311, northern Cascadia margin). Without AOM, methane diffuses above the SMT, which contradicts existing field data. The modeling results are generalized with a dimensional analysis to the range of SMT depths and sedimentation rates typical of continental margins. The modeling shows that AOM must be active to establish an SMT wherein methane is quantitatively consumed and the δ 13 C‐DIC minimum occurs. The presence of an SMT generally requires active AOM.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗

USGS2006

Bottom instrumented tripods: History, applications, and impacts

Instrumented bottom tripods have provided important data on sediment transport processes on continental shelves and in estuaries for four decades. Since the initial deployment in a tidal channel in Puget Sound, WA, in 1965 numerous tripods have been constructed to investigate bottom boundary layer and sediment dynamics worldwide. Tripod data have led to new understanding of near-bottom wave and current flows in the coastal ocean, and have been crucial to the development of shelf circulation and sediment transport models. Calculations of bottom stress, bottom roughness, and sediment flux that resulted directly from tripod data have been compared to bottom boundary layer model results. Where these have differed, new or revised model components have been developed to improve the skill of the models. The many discoveries that have been made from tripod experiments include dense, near-bottom fluid mud layers that transport large quantities of suspended sediment offshore into deeper regions of the continental shelf. This process has been linked to the seaward progradation of subaqueous deltas and to the boundaries of mid-shelf mud deposits off rivers with high fine-sediment discharge.

Continental Shelf Research↗

USGS2026

Tracing mercury from land to river: Global sources, retention, and implications for sustainability

Mercury (Hg) pollution in river systems is a global sustainability challenge. Yet the transport, transformation, and retention of Hg within global rivers remain poorly quantified, particularly in regions with sparse observations such as Southeast Asia and Africa, hindering effective pollution mitigation and reinforcing geographic inequities in scientific knowledge and environmental governance. Here, we present the first global, high-resolution simulation of riverine Hg dynamics using a process-based model that traces Hg from land-based sources through river networks to the ocean. Under a realistic scenario, we estimate that ∼1900 megagrams per year (Mg/yr) of Hg enters global rivers, including 1500 Mg/yr from human-induced sources and 400 Mg/yr from soil erosion. Nearly half of this flux (∼1000 Mg/yr) is retained in reservoirs and dams, which act as major sinks. While such retention limits downstream delivery to the oceans, it also heightens in-reservoir Hg methylation risks. By bridging the gap between Hg releases and observed riverine exports, our framework offers a scalable tool for data-limited regions, promotes data access, and supports global freshwater and pollution-management strategies.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2015

Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age

The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard–Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives 1 . Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle and vice versa 2 , 3 , suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw 4 , 5 , 6 . Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events 7 , 8 , 9 . Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision 2 , 3 , 10 . Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2 σ ) for Dansgaard–Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard–Oeschger dynamics.

Nature↗

USGS2022

Waveform signatures of earthquakes located close to the subducted Gorda Plate interface

Complex seismic velocity structure near the earthquake source can affect rupture dynamics and strongly modify the seismic waveforms recorded near the fault. Fault‐zone waves are commonly observed in continental crustal settings but are less clear in subduction zones due to the spatial separation between seismic stations and the plate boundary fault. We observed anomalously long duration S waves from earthquake clusters located near the interface of the subducted Gorda plate north of the Mendocino triple junction. In contrast, earthquakes located just a few kilometers below each cluster show impulsive S waves. A nodal array experiment was conducted around the Northern California Seismic Network station KCT for two months to investigate the origin of the complex S waves. Beamforming analysis shows that the S waves contain three arrivals that have different horizontal slownesses, which we term S 1, S 2, and S coda. Similar analysis on P waves also show two arrivals with different horizontal slownesses, which we term P 1 and P 2. P 1 and S 1 have larger horizontal slowness than P 2 and S 2, respectively, indicating that the phase pairs are body waves with different ray paths. Building upon a seismic refraction profile, we construct 1D velocity models and test different thicknesses and V P / V S ratios for the subducted oceanic crust. The arrival times and relative slownesses of P 1/ P 2 and S 1/ S 2 phases indicate that they are the direct and the Moho reflected phases, respectively. Their properties are consistent with a crustal thickness of ∼6 km and a moderate V P / V S ratio (∼1.8). The S coda is more difficult to characterize but has a clear dominant frequency that likely reflects the near‐source velocity and attenuation structure. Our study indicates that waveforms from earthquakes near the interface of the subducted slab can be used to infer detailed structural information about the plate‐boundary zone at seismogenic depths.

California↗

USGS2025

Tracing mercury from land to river: Global sources, retention, and implications for sustainability

Mercury (Hg) pollution in river systems is a global sustainability challenge. Yet the transport, transformation, and retention of Hg within global rivers remain poorly quantified, particularly in regions with sparse observations such as Southeast Asia and Africa, hindering effective pollution mitigation and reinforcing geographic inequities in scientific knowledge and environmental governance. Here, we present the first global, high-resolution simulation of riverine Hg dynamics using a process-based model that traces Hg from land-based sources through river networks to the ocean. Under a realistic scenario, we estimate that ~1,900 megagrams per year (Mg/yr) of Hg enters global rivers, including 1,500 Mg/yr from human-induced sources and 400 Mg/yr from soil erosion. Nearly half of this flux (~1,000 Mg/yr) is retained in reservoirs and dams, which act as major sinks. While such retention limits downstream delivery to the oceans, it also heightens in-reservoir Hg methylation risks. By bridging the gap between Hg releases and observed riverine exports, our framework offers a scalable tool for data-limited regions, promotes data access, and supports global freshwater and pollution-management strategies.

EarthArXiv↗

USGS2017

Noble gas isotopes in mineral springs and wells within the Cascadia forearc, Washington, Oregon, and California

Introduction This U.S. Geological Survey report presents laboratory analyses along with field notes for an exploratory study to document the relative abundance of noble gases in mineral springs and water wells within the Cascadia forearc of Washington, Oregon, and California (fig. 1). This report describes 14 samples collected in 2014 and 2015 and complements a previous report that describes 9 samples collected in 2012 and 2013 (McCrory and others, 2014b). Estimates of the depth to the underlying Juan de Fuca oceanic plate beneath sample sites are derived from the McCrory and others (2012) slab model. Some of the springs have been previously sampled for chemical analyses (Mariner and others, 2006), but none of the springs or wells currently has publicly available noble gas data. The helium and neon isotope values and ratios presented below are used to determine the sources and mixing history of these mineral and well waters (for example, McCrory and others, 2016).

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2023

Calibration of the Trinity River Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) with extension to the Klamath River, California, 2006–17

The Trinity River is managed in two sections: (1) the upper 64-kilometer (km) “restoration reach” downstream from Lewiston Dam and (2) the 120-km lower Trinity River downstream from the restoration reach. The Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) has been previously constructed and calibrated for the restoration reach. In this report, we extended and parameterized S3 for the 120-km section of the lower Trinity River to the confluence with the Klamath River and then to the Pacific Ocean in northern California. S3 is a deterministic life-stage structured-population model that tracks daily growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmon. A key theme of the model is that river discharge affects habitat availability and capacity, which in turn drives density-dependent population dynamics. To explicitly link population dynamics to habitat quality and quantity, the river environment is constructed as a one-dimensional series of linked habitat units, each of which has an associated daily timeseries of discharge, water temperature, and useable habitat area or carrying capacity. In turn, the physical characteristics of each habitat unit and the number of fish occupying each unit drive (1) survival and growth within each habitat unit and (2) movement of fish among habitat units. The physical template of the Trinity River was formed by classifying the river into 910 meso-habitat units that were designated into runs, riffles, or pools. For each habitat unit, we developed a timeseries of daily discharge, water temperature, amount of available spawning habitat, and fry and parr carrying capacity. Capacity timeseries were constructed using state-of-the-art models of spatially explicit hydrodynamics and quantitative fish habitat relationships developed for the Trinity River. These variables were then used to drive population dynamics such as egg maturation and survival, and in turn, juvenile movement, growth, and survival. We estimated key movement and survival parameters by calibrating the model to 12 years (2007–18) of weekly juvenile abundance estimates from two rotary screw traps: (1) the Pear Tree trap near the downstream end of the restoration reach and (2) the Willow Creek trap site is about 40.2 km upriver from the Trinity River’s confluence with the Klamath River. The calibration consisted of replicating historical conditions as closely as possible (for example: flow, temperature, spawner abundance, spawning location and timing, and hatchery releases), and then running the model to predict weekly abundance passing the trap location. We also evaluated four alternative model structures that included either no density-dependence, density-independent movement and survival, density-dependent survival, or density-dependent movement. Akaike information criterion model selection was used to evaluate the strength of evidence for alternative model structures to simulate the observed abundance estimates. Model selection supported the conclusion that the fully density-dependent model and density-dependent survival model was better supported by the data than the no density-dependence or density-dependent movement model. Because density-dependent movement was favored in past evaluations, we focus on the results from the fully density-dependent model. Parameter estimates from this model indicated that fry were less likely than parr to move downstream and that fry moved slower. Fry had a lower daily survival probability than parr. In contrast, hatchery fish had the highest probability of movement and the lowest daily survival probability. Fitting the model to both traps individually enabled us to independently compare the fit and performance of S3 at simulating fish abundance, timing, and growth of juvenile salmon in the upper restoration reach and lower Trinity River. We obtained a better fit to the data at the Willow Creek trap site than we obtained at the Pear Tree trap site, regardless of whether we fit the model to the abundances at the Pear Tree trap or Willow Creek trap. This better fit was surprising given that the S3 input data for the upper restoration reach required fewer assumptions than fitting to the Willow Creek trap site that is farther down river. Fitting S3 to weekly abundances at the Willow Creek trap site required making assumptions about (1) extrapolating capacity-flow relationships to unmeasured habitat units; (2) spatially allocating spawners within the lower Trinity River; and (3) approximating the abundance, timing, and size of juveniles entering from tributaries. The model provided better fit to the data at the Willow Creek trap site. In the weekly abundance estimates, in relation to the S3 simulated abundances, several migration years’ (2011, 2015–17) weekly abundance estimates appeared truncated and were near or at peak annual abundances in January, suggesting that a large fraction of juveniles was migrating as early as December at the Pear Tree trap site. Some early life dynamics may not be currently incorporated into S3. For example, the estimation of abundance at the Pear Tree trap may be biased because of size selectivity. Knowing about selectivity at the Pear Tree trap could greatly improve S3’s ability to predict weekly and peak abundances each year.

California↗

USGS2011

Depositional setting and geochemistry of phosphorites and metalliferous black shales in the Carboniferous-Permian Lisburne Group, Northern Alaska

Phosphatic rocks are distributed widely in the Lisburne Group, a mainly Carboniferous carbonate succession that occurs throughout northern Alaska. New sedimentologic, paleontologic, and geochemical data presented here constrain the geographic and stratigraphic extent of these strata and their depositional and paleogeographic settings. Our findings support models that propose very high oxygen contents of the Permo-Carboniferous atmosphere and oceans, and those that suggest enhanced phosphogenesis in iron-limited sediments; our data also have implications for Carboniferous paleogeography of the Arctic. Lisburne Group phosphorites range from granular to nodular, are interbedded with black shale and lime mudstone rich in radiolarians and sponge spicules, and accumulated primarily in suboxic outer- to middle-ramp environments. Age constraints from conodonts, foraminifers, and goniatite cephalopods indicate that most are middle Late Mississippian (early Chesterian; early late Visean). Phosphorites form 2- to 40-cm-thick beds of sand- to pebble-sized phosphatic peloids, coated grains, and (or) bioclasts cemented by carbonate, silica, or phosphate that occur through an interval =12 m thick. High gamma-ray response through this interval suggests strongly condensed facies related to sediment starvation and development of phosphatic hardgrounds. Phosphorite textures, such as unconformity-bounded coated grains, record multiple episodes of phosphogenesis and sedimentary reworking. Sharp bed bases and local grading indicate considerable redeposition of phosphatic material into deeper water by storms and (or) gravity flows. Lisburne Group phosphorites contain up to 37 weight percent P2O5, 7.6 weight percent F, 1,030 ppm Y, 517 ppm La, and 166 ppm U. Shale-normalized rare earth element (REE) plots show uniformly large negative Ce anomalies Ce/Ce*=0.11 + or - 0.03) that are interpreted to reflect phosphate deposition in seawater that was greatly depleted in Ce due to increased oxygenation of the atmosphere and oceans during the Carboniferous evolution of large vascular land plants. Black shales within the phosphorite sections have up to 20.2 weight percent Corg and are potential petroleum source rocks. Locally, these strata also are metalliferous, with up to 1,690 ppm Cr, 2,831 ppm V, 551 ppm Ni, 4,670 ppm Zn, 312 ppm Cu, 43.5 ppm Ag, and 12.3 ppm Tl; concentrations of these metals covary broadly with Corg, suggesting coupled redox variations. Calculated marine fractions (MF) of Cr, V, and Mo, used to evaluate the paleoredox state of the bottom waters, show generally high CrMF/MoMF and VMF/MoMF ratios that indicate deposition of the black shales under suboxic denitrifying conditions; Re/Mo ratios also plot mainly within the suboxic field and support this interpretation. Predominantly seawater and biogenic sources are indicated for Cr, V, Mo, Zn, Cd, Ni, and Cu in the black shales, with an additional hydrothermal contribution inferred for Zn, Cd, Ag, and Tl in some samples. Lisburne Group phosphorites formed in the Ikpikpuk Basin and along both sides of the mud- and chert-rich Kuna Basin, which hosts giant massive sulfide and barite deposits of the Red Dog district. Lisburne Group phosphatic strata are coeval with these deposits and formed in response to a nutrient-rich upwelling regime. Phosphate deposition occurred mainly in suboxic bottom waters based on data for paleoredox proxies (Cr, V, Mo, Re) within contemporaneous black shales. Recent global reconstructions are consistent with Carboniferous upwelling in northern Alaska, but differ in the type of upwelling expected (zonal versus meridional). Paleoenvironmental data suggest that meridional upwelling may better explain phosphorite deposition in the Lisburne Group.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Big avalanches in a changing climate: Using tree-ring derived avalanche chronologies to examine avalanche frequency across multiple climate types

Large-magnitude snow avalanches pose a hazard to humans and infrastructure worldwide. Analyzing the spatiotemporal behavior of avalanches and the contributory climate factors is important for understanding historical variability in climate-avalanche relationships as well as improving avalanche forecasting. This study uses established dendrochronological methods to develop long-term regional avalanche chronologies for three different climate types: high-latitude maritime climate of southeast Alaska, intermountain climate of the northern Rocky Mountains, and continental climate of Colorado. In the maritime study area, we collected 434 cross sections throughout six avalanche paths near Juneau, Alaska. This resulted in 2706 identified avalanche growth disturbances between year 1720 and 2018 Common Era (CE), which allowed us to reconstruct 82 years with large magnitude avalanche activity across three sub-regions. By combining this tree-ring derived avalanche dataset with a suite of climate and atmospheric variables and applying a generalized linear model to fit a binomial regression, we found February and March precipitation and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) were significant predictors of large magnitude avalanche activity in the southeast Alaska study area. In the intermountain climate study area, tree-rings from 647 trees exhibited 2134 avalanche-related growth disturbances in the northern Rocky Mountains of northwest Montana from 1867 to 2019. The data show that the amount of snowpack across the northern Rocky Mountain region is directly related to avalanche probability. Coincident with warming and regional snowpack reductions, a decline of ~ 14% (~ 2% per decade) in overall large magnitude avalanche probability is apparent through the period 1950–2017 CE. In the continental climate of Colorado, we sampled 24 avalanche paths throughout the state and collected 1188 total samples with 4135 identified growth disturbances from 1698 to 2019. Preliminary results suggest years with large magnitude avalanche activity across the sub-regions of this study area are generally characterized by stormy winters with above average snowpack development but that early and late winter temperature and precipitation also play an important role in large avalanche activity. Characterizing historical climate-avalanche relationships across different climate types provides a broad baseline for understanding potential future changes in avalanche activity. Overall, this work helps forecasters and planners better understand the influence of climate on large magnitude avalanche frequency, and how potential changes in avalanche character and occurrence will affect their operations in the context of a warming climate.

Alaska, Colorado, Montana↗

USGS2024

The National Ocean Biodiversity Strategy

President Biden has been clear that the ocean is central to life on Earth. As he has proclaimed, “the ocean powers millions of jobs; feeds and sustains us; and is a rejuvenating source of inspiration, exploration, and recreation.” The Biden-Harris Administration has worked hard to fulfill the President’s goal to protect and conserve at least 30% of U.S. waters by 2030. The ocean faces increased threats from warming, overfishing, increased acidity, and loss of biodiversity. It is now more important than ever to sustain the many benefits that the ocean, coasts, and Great Lakes provide, including food, a favorable climate, recreation, physical and mental health, and for many, a sense of cultural identity. Ocean life represents an irreplaceable heritage, the foundation of a habitable planet, and a vast trove of resources. Keeping our ocean healthy requires reliable information on the changing status of these living organisms, the drivers of biodiversity change, and options for effectively addressing those drivers. Over 2 million species are estimated to live in the ocean, yet only about 240,000 species have been described by scientists. Most of the ocean’s benefits result from those diverse species interacting with one another and the environment they create. To protect and conserve the ocean, we as a nation need to make better use of existing knowledge and prioritize acquiring new biodiversity knowledge to enable better policy and management decisions. The ability to monitor ocean species and habitats has expanded dramatically over the past decade, with innovations in technology, genomics, taxonomy, big data management and sharing, artificial intelligence, and machine learning. Yet large fractions of the U.S. ocean remain almost unknown. The National Ocean Biodiversity Strategy (strategy) reflects the urgent need to leverage these advances. The goals of this strategy must be guided by the nation’s diverse voices and ways of knowing, in order to maximize effective and equitable stewardship of the ocean’s diverse life and its benefits to people. The strategy is intended as a guiding document for government to advance three overarching goals: ● Goal 1: Drive delivery of ocean biodiversity knowledge at the national scale. Objectives include developing an Implementation Plan for achieving the strategy’s three goals; establishing a coordination mechanism to manage the implementation; and documenting gaps in biodiversity knowledge and the benefits of ocean biodiversity to people and economies. ● Goal 2: Strengthen tools and institutions to deliver ocean biodiversity knowledge. Objectives include establishing a robust information pipeline to support indicators and dynamic maps of ocean biodiversity, from the coasts to the deep sea. This pipeline should include expanded observing systems and comprehensive data management; science and technology solutions to accelerate the availability of biodiversity information; and plans to leverage previous investments to rebuild and expand the nation’s human capital and infrastructure to sustain foundational taxonomy and biodiversity science. ● Goal 3: Protect, conserve, restore, and sustainably use ocean biodiversity. Objectives include expanding the collection, delivery, and use of biodiversity knowledge to inform actions that advance ocean protection, conservation, restoration, and sustainable development. Government should lead in establishing and incentivizing diverse partnerships across scales and sectors to implement those actions and should educate and involve the public to discover and value the nation’s diverse ocean life. Achieving these goals will require commitments across society: new federal and private investments, coordination across sectors to address climate and equity challenges, and engagement of Indigenous Knowledge holders and frontline communities as full partners throughout planning and implementation. The Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology (SOST) IWG-Biodiversity will begin developing an Implementation Plan to describe and direct specific actions to implement the strategy. Successful implementation of the strategy will harmonize and expand collection and delivery of timely knowledge on ocean life to all of society. The strategy will also enable evidence-based management and protection of the ocean. Advancing the strategy will build human and institutional capital and partnerships that support both existing mandates and new needs to rebuild and sustain biodiversity, achieve healthy ocean ecosystems, and manage living resources. Implementing the strategy will deliver knowledge for monitoring, modeling, forecasting, and assessments that support food security, public health, and cultural values, and that more effectively protect, conserve, and restore nature.

Report↗

USGS2025

Laying sequence and oceanographic factors affect egg size in Scripps's Murrelets Synthliboramphus scrippsi at Santa Barbara Island

Egg size is an important avian life history parameter, with larger eggs indicating greater investment of resources in the chick. Prey availability can affect such investment. We investigated the effects of oceanographic conditions and laying sequence on Scripps's Murrelet Synthliboramphus scrippsi egg size at Santa Barbara Island, California during 2009-2017. We evaluated oceanographic covariates characterizing marine productivity for their effect on egg size, including large-scale oceanographic indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index. We also evaluated a larval anchovy catch-per-unit-effort (ANCHL) index and the Biologically Effective Upwelling Transport Index (BEUTI) as region-wide indices, and sea surface temperature (SST) as a local index. We evaluated oceanographic conditions over the entire year and during the breeding season only. We also considered the contribution of lagged effects to oceanographic conditions. Our results generally ran counter to our hypothesis that increased ocean productivity should increase egg size. Based on Akaike's Information Criterion, the four top-ranked models provided support for an association between larger eggs and conditions indicative of lower oceanographic productivity, including lower values of BEUTI and NPGO, and higher values of ONI, PDO, and SST. The only result that supported our hypothesis was a positive relationship between ANCHL and egg size, although the 95% confidence interval for the effect included 0. The strongest relationship detected was between laying sequence and egg size, as second eggs were considerably larger than first eggs. Our results indicate substantial complexity in the relationship between ocean productivity and seabird demography. A better understanding of how ocean productivity affects seabird breeding outcomes through multiple mechanisms will help improve predictions of how seabirds will respond to changing ocean conditions.

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