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Grand Canyon landslide-dam and paleolake triggered by the Meteor Crater impact at 56 ka

This paper hypothesizes that the Meteor Crater impact in Arizona, USA, 56,000 years ago triggered landslides in Grand Canyon that dammed the Colorado River and formed Nankoweap paleolake. This is compatible with shock and earthquake physics for the impact that infer a M5.4 seismic event, attenuated to an effective magnitude of M3.5 at Grand Canyon. Results that support the hypothesis include radiocarbon dating of driftwood and luminescence dating of associated slack-water lake sediments that are preserved in caves up to 60 m above the modern Colorado River. Radiocarbon ages from two locations, including Stanton’s Cave, date the driftwood as 55.25 ± 2.44 ka (n = 4). Sediments associated with the driftwood gave a luminescence age of 56.00 ± 6.39 ka (n = 2). These six Grand Canyon dates, and three published ages for the Meteor Crater impact, show statistically indistinguishable results that support the hypothesis for a geologically instantaneous series of events with a mean age of 55.60 ± 1.30 ka. This work highlights the value of radiocarbon dating near the limits of the technique, integration of multiple dating methods, and seismic and landslide hazards associated with meteorite impacts in regions of extreme topography like Grand Canyon.

Arizona

Wetlands, groundwater and seasonality influence the spatial distribution of stream chemistry in a low-relief catchment

Evaluating stream water chemistry patterns provides insight into catchment ecosystem and hydrologic processes. Spatially distributed patterns and controls of stream solutes are well-established for high-relief catchments where solute flow paths align with surface topography. However, the controls on solute patterns are poorly constrained for low-relief catchments where hydrogeologic heterogeneities and river corridor features, like wetlands, may influence water and solute transport. Here, we provide a data set of solute patterns from 58 synoptic surveys across 28 sites and over 32 months in a low-relief wetland-rich catchment to determine the major surface and subsurface controls along with wetland influence across the catchment. In this low-relief catchment, the expected wetland storage, processing, and transport of solutes is only apparent in solute patterns of the smallest subcatchments. Meanwhile, downstream seasonal and wetland influence on observed chemistry can be masked by large groundwater contributions to the main stream channel. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating variable groundwater contributions into catchment-scale studies for low-relief catchments, and that understanding the overall influence of wetlands on stream chemistry requires sampling across various spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, in low-relief wetland-rich catchments, given the mosaic of above and below ground controls on stream solutes, modeling efforts may need to include both surface and subsurface hydrological data and processes.

Michigan

Magnetic storms and geoelectric hazards

Magnetic storms induce geoelectric fields at Earth's surface that can interfere with grounded long-line systems. The September 1859 storm disrupted global telegraph operations, the March 1989 storm caused a blackout in Canada and interfered with electric-power-transmission systems in the United States, and other storms have had related impacts. The geographic and temporal dependence of geoelectric fields are functions of both geomagnetic variation and local surface impedance, which differ considerably across different geological regions. These dependencies can be mapped across the contiguous United States by combining magnetotelluric impedance tensors with ground magnetometer time series. This review illustrates such mapping for the 1989 storm and shows that power-system interference was experienced where surface impedance is high, and when and where geoelectric fields were intense. Statistical analyses indicate that storms comparable to that of March 1989 occur roughly once every four solar cycles. Ongoing developments in numerical modeling and real-time monitoring are anticipated to enable prediction of geoelectric hazards. ▪ Magnetic storms can induced electric fields in the solid Earth that interfere with electric-power-transmission systems. ▪ Geoelectric hazards depend on the storm-time geomagnetic disturbance and the electrical conductivity structure of Earth. ▪ Historically, impacts on telecommunication and power-transmission systems in the United States have been concentrated in the East and Midwest. ▪ The future occurrence of a magnetic superstorm could cause widespread disruption of electric-power-transmission systems.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

Oblique contraction along the fastest ocean-continent transform plate boundary focuses rock uplift west of the Fairweather fault, southeast Alaska

Contraction along the Yakutat–North America plate boundary drives 4.6–9.0 mm/year Holocene rock uplift rates along Earth's fastest slipping (≥49 mm/year) ocean–continent transform fault, the Fairweather Fault. Between Icy Point and Lituya Bay, the near-vertical Fairweather fault focuses rock uplift and rapid right-lateral slip by accommodating both vertical and fault-parallel strain during oblique-slip and separate, predominantly strike-slip ruptures. Unusually high uplift rates, indicated by radiocarbon and luminescence dating, result from a 10-km-wide, asymmetric, positive flower structure along a 20°, ∼30-km-long restraining double bend in the Fairweather fault. The principal reverse fault in the flower structure, the offshore, blind Icy Point–Lituya Bay fault, ruptures no more than every 460–1040 years evidenced by uplifted Holocene shorelines. Maximum 3–5 m coseismic uplifts imply 3.1–10 m dip slip per event and earthquake magnitudes of M w 7.0–7.5. The Yakutat block collides obliquely into North America, and our model entails oblique slip on the Fairweather fault with and without corupture on the reverse fault. Oblique slip is evident by vertically offset (>25 m) fluvial and marine terraces and by the primary Fairweather fault strand that strikes >20° to the west of plate-boundary motion.

Alaska

Integrating habitat suitability and climate constraints to predict nonnative fish invasion risk for U.S. streams and inland lakes

Introduction: Nonnative fishes in streams and inland lakes can substantially alter aquatic ecosystems by degrading habitat conditions, competing with native species, and restructuring food webs. Identifying invasion hotspots can inform proactive management and prevention of nonnative species establishment. Methods: In this study, we identified streams and lakes across the conterminous United States that are vulnerable to invasion by 18 nonnative stream and 28 nonnative lake fish species. Habitat suitability models were developed separately for stream and lake species across nine ecoregions using natural and anthropogenic predictors, and species occurrences were predicted by integrating model results with climate match scores based on comparisons between environmental conditions in species’ native and potential nonnative ranges. We classified areas with both high habitat suitability and strong climate similarity as having high invasion potential and generated hotspot maps by stacking species-level predictions. Results: Florida exhibits the highest invasion risk for both habitat types. Stream hotspots were concentrated near major metropolitan areas, whereas lake hotspots were more widely distributed across the Great Lakes basin and the northeastern U.S. Twelve species were predicted to invade both habitat types, with goldfish ( Carassius auratus ) and pirapitinga ( Piaractus brachypomus ) showing particularly high invasion potential. Discussion: These findings provide a comprehensive assessment of nonnative freshwater fish invasion risk and support targeted monitoring and management strategies.

conterminous United States

Origin and evolution of mafic volcanism associated with 3 m.y. of andesite production at the Goat Rocks volcanic cluster, southern Washington Cascade Range

More than 3 m.y. of mafic volcanism near the Goat Rocks volcanic cluster in the southern Washington Cascade Range, USA, lends insight into the evolution of basalts and the subarc mantle at a long-lived, major arc volcanic locus. We contribute field observations, 40 Ar/ 39 Ar dates, paleomagnetic directions, and bulk rock and mineral compositions to characterize nine mafic units that erupted in association with the Goat Rocks volcanic cluster. The time frame of mafic volcanism, ca. 3.6 Ma to 60 ka, encompasses the lifespan of the central volcanic cluster (3.1 Ma to 115 ka), with a lull from ca. 2.7 Ma to 1.4 Ma. A climactic period of voluminous mafic activity and far-traveled lava flows, including construction of the Hogback Mountain shield volcano, coincided with voluminous andesite eruptions from the central volcanic cluster. The basaltic rocks in the Goat Rocks area are calc-alkaline to barely tholeiitic and have high field strength element depletion relative to large-ion lithophile elements characteristic of calc-alkaline basalts (CAB) of the Cascade volcanic arc. Unlike at neighboring andesitic volcanic centers (Mounts Adams, St. Helens, and Rainier), no other mafic end members such as high-aluminum olivine tholeiite (HAOT) or intraplate-type basalt (IPB) are present at or near the Goat Rocks volcanic cluster, although some of the calc-alkaline basalts in this study have IPB-like affinities. The Goat Rocks mafic units exhibit two main temporal trends in composition: (1) the most primitive basalts erupted earlier, compared to less primitive and more evolved compositions later, and (2) high field strength element concentrations are higher in the younger basalt units relative to the oldest two. In contrast to these temporal trends, the mafic units define two compositional groups that recur through time, a low-Sr and a high-Sr group, each with distinct trace element and Sr and Nd isotope ratios. Although radiogenic isotope ratios are generally aligned with High Cascades CAB and HAOT, some extend toward IPB of Mount Adams and Simcoe Mountains volcanic field. Olivine-dominated crystal fractionation at shallow pressure from a small range of parent magma compositions accounts for much of the variation among the basalts and basaltic andesites. A high-pressure fractionation model is plausible for only one of the youngest basalt units (basalt of Walupt Lake volcano). Mafic recharge and crustal assimilation accounts for the incompatible-element enriched composition of basaltic andesites erupted during construction of the largest andesitic centers, further supporting sustained basalt mass flux and thermal energy driving andesite genesis. We model the most primitive members of the Goat Rocks mafic units as partial melts of successively less depleted mantle in time. Variable degrees of fluxing with fluids and melts from subduction explain the distinction between high-Sr and low-Sr groups. We propose that mantle metasomatism by ancestral subduction and fluid-flux melting is heterogeneously distributed through the local subarc mantle and played a greater role in the genesis of the high-Sr basalt group. The limited range of primitive basalt types around the Goat Rocks volcanic cluster contrasts with the much greater diversity of basalts throughout the southern Washington to northern Oregon Cascade arc. On the other hand, the central volcanic cluster encompasses nearly the entire diversity observed at neighboring composite volcanoes. In the case of the Goat Rocks area at least, and perhaps attributable to the entire region, this means that the genesis of diverse intermediate magmas is independent from and does not require vastly different parental basalt compositions.

California, Oregon, Washington

Use of a ground-penetrating radar system to detect pre- and post-flood scour at selected bridge sites in New Hampshire, 1996-98

Ground-penetrating radar was used to measure the depth and extent of existing and infilled scour holes and previous scour surfaces at seven bridges in New Hampshire from April 1996 to November 1998. Ground-penetrating-radar survey techniques initially were used by the U.S. Geological Survey to study streambed scour at 30 bridges. Sixteen of the 30 bridges were re-surveyed where floods exceeded a 2-year recurrence interval. A 300-megahertz signal was used in the ground-penetrating radar system that penetrated through depths as great as 20 feet of water and as great as 32 feet of streambed materials. Existing scour-hole dimensions, infilled thickness, previous scour surfaces, and streambed materials were detected using ground-penetrating radar. Depths to riprap materials and pier footings were identified and verified with bridge plans. Post data-collection-processing techniques were applied to assist in the interpretation of the data, and the processed data were displayed and printed as line plots. Processing included distance normalization, migration, and filtering but processing was kept to a minimum and some interference from multiple reflections was left in the record. Of the 16 post-flood bridges, 22 ground-penetrating-radar cross sections at 7 bridges were compared and presented in this report. Existing scour holes were detected during 1996 (pre-flood) data collection in nine cross sections where scour depths ranged from 1 to 3 feet. New scour holes were detected during 1998 (post-flood) data collection in four cross sections where scour depths were as great as 4 feet deep. Infilled scour holes were detected in seven cross sections, where depths of infilling ranged from less than 1 to 4 feet. Depth of infilling by means of steel rod and hammer was difficult to verify in the field because of cobble and boulder streambeds or deep water. Previous scour surfaces in streambed materials were identified in 15 cross sections and the depths to these surfaces ranged from 1 to 10 feet below the streambed. Riprap materials or pier footings were identified in all cross sections. Calculated record depths generally agree with bridge plans. Pier footings were exposed at two bridges and steel pile was exposed at one bridge. Exposures were verified by field observations.

New Hampshire

On connecting hydro-social parameters to vegetation greenness differences in an evolving groundwater-dependent ecosystem

Understanding groundwater-dependent ecosystems (i.e., areas with a relatively shallow water table that plays a major role in supporting vegetation health) is key to sustaining water resources in the western United States. Groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) in Colorado have non-pristine temporal and spatial patterns, compared to agro-ecosystems, which make it difficult to quantify how these ecosystems are impacted by changes in water availability. The goal of this study is to examine how key hydrosocial parameters perturb GDE water use in time and in space. The temporal approach tests for the additive impacts of precipitation, surface water discharge, surface water mass balance as a surrogate for surface–groundwater exchange, and groundwater depth on the monthly Landsat normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The spatial approach tests for the additive impacts of river confluences, canal augmentation, development, perennial tributary confluences, and farmland modification on temporally integrated NDVI. Model results show a temporal trend (monthly, 1984–2019) is identifiable along segments of the Arkansas River at resolutions finer than 10 km. The temporal impacts of river discharge correlate with riparian water use sooner in time compared to precipitation, but this result is spatially variable and dependent on the covariates tested. Spatially, areal segments of the Arkansas River that have confluences with perennial streams have increased cumulative vegetation density. Quantifying temporal and spatial dependencies between the sources and effects of GDEs could aid in preventing the loss of a vulnerable ecosystem to increased water demand, changing climate, and evolving irrigation methodologies.

Colorado

Assessing spatial variability of nutrients, phytoplankton, and related water-quality constituents in the California Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta at the landscape scale—2018 high resolution mapping surveys

Executive Summary This study examined the abundance and distribution of nutrients and phytoplankton in the tidal aquatic environments of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta) and Suisun Bay, comprising three spatial surveys conducted in May, July, and October of 2018 that used continuous underway high frequency sampling and measurements onboard a high-speed boat to characterize spatial variation across the extent of the Delta. The method used involves simultaneously collecting information about the concentration and spatial distribution of all major nutrient forms with analogous information about the major classes of phytoplankton and associated water-quality conditions. The results showed substantial variation across space and time, providing an unprecedented snapshot of the dynamic environmental processes that shape the ways nutrients interact with and affect aquatic habitats in the Delta. The purposes of this study were to improve our understanding of how hydrodynamics, landscape features, and aquatic primary productivity interact to drive nutrient cycling and transport in the Delta and to provide insights into the underlying processes most directly responsible for the conditions at the time of this study, and thus into the range of conditions that may be expected following the wide array of prospective future changes to the Delta. One major anticipated change at the time of this study was the planned upgrade to the Sacramento Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant, but the study also informs our understanding of potential effects from other changes to the Delta, such as those caused by other nutrient-management actions, flow actions, large-scale wetland restoration, drought, flood, levee failure, and changes to water management. Nutrient loading is the primary driver of nutrient concentrations in the Delta, but several other major drivers interact to shape their distribution and effects: geomorphology, hydrodynamics, landscape features, and aquatic productivity. Hydrodynamics affect timescales of transport and dilution of nutrient loads in the Delta. During transit through the system, channel geometry, tidal mixing, and water exports affect hydrodynamics in diverse ways that influence water-residence and transport times, thereby markedly affecting the range of times during which natural internal cycling can alter nutrient concentrations and forms. Channel geometry and location shape tidal energy and river currents into these observed dynamics. Interactions with Delta aquatic landscapes such as herbaceous tidal marsh, submerged aquatic vegetation, and large expanses of intertidal or subtidal sediments (all highly productive landscapes) exert demand on available nutrient supplies but can also simultaneously transform and generate nutrients. Finally, while phytoplankton require nutrients to sustain production and thus are a potential nutrient sink, the amount and form of nutrients also can influence the occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that adversely affect aquatic organisms as well as affect the occurrence of beneficial algal blooms that result in production of algae that are favorable for imperiled Delta pelagic aquatic food webs. The surveys revealed a complex mosaic of spatial variation, with nutrient concentrations varying from near zero to well above concentrations considered eutrophic; nutrient concentrations were more often related to the extent of hydrologic transport and mixing than to specific geographic locations or to specific landscape features. Similarly, the surveys identified phytoplankton abundance ranging from near detection to the level of large phytoplankton blooms, with large variation in phytoplankton community composition. Although the study occurred during a period of low bloom activity, phytoplankton productivity appeared to be the strongest potential sink for inorganic nutrients in the Delta, indicating that it is a larger control on nutrient concentrations and distribution than previously understood. Cycling and transformation within the water column only appeared to substantially lower total nutrient concentrations at the longest estimated transport timescales. Contrary to expectations, we did not observe substantial nutrient depletion near landscape-scale features such as open-water habitats, submerged aquatic vegetation beds, extensive wetlands, or exposed sediments, indicating that these habitat types did not act as major sinks for nutrients in the Delta during these surveys. These results indicated that nutrient reduction efforts may have the greatest effect on pelagic phytoplankton productivity in the more productive reaches of the Delta and estuary, but these effects are unlikely to be magnified by changes to nutrient loss within the Delta over conceivable changes in flow conditions, Delta water management actions, or large-scale wetland restoration activities. Nevertheless, local processes were shown to cause substantial loss, and thus integrating of nutrient effects with other indicators of aquatic habitat conditions will help inform planning future actions at specific sites. Finally, we note that the primary contribution of this study was intended to be the survey data themselves. Aside from the results highlighted in this report, the surveys are a benchmark against which future environmental change may be evaluated, including changes to nutrient management or water exports, drought, large-scale wetland restoration, and climate change. Further, although we highlight some of the main findings from the surveys in this report, the necessarily limited scope precludes examination of many topics for which these surveys may be highly informative. To facilitate the utility of these data to stakeholders, managers, and researchers, we have released the data online (Bergamaschi and others, 2020) and created an online data exploration portal ( https:​//ca.water​.usgs.gov/​bay-​delta/​2018-​delta-​wide-​mapping-​surveys.html ) where users may query the surveys in a variety of ways to test hypotheses, examine relationships, assess spatial trends, and download data. The data exploration portal is intended to be an immersive experience that allows users to gain greater understanding of the complex interactions that shape Delta aquatic environments. This report is intended as a companion to the portal, allowing the reader to challenge and further explore the highlighted findings. This study was a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Delta Regional Monitoring Program, with additional funding provided from U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Matching Funds Program.

California

A temporal look at the influence of topographic amplification on earthquake-triggered landslides in 3D seismic simulations

Earthquakes are a primary trigger for landslides, often leading to catastrophic consequences. While numerous studies have explored the spatial distribution of earthquake-triggered landslides, understanding the interaction between seismic waves and topography remains a critical challenge. Topographic irregularities can cause seismic wave amplification, altering ground shaking, and can trigger landslides that are challenging for predictive models to anticipate. This study investigates the spatial and temporal evolution of topographically amplified landslides, focusing on coseismic landslides triggered by the Mw 7.5 mainshock of the 2018 Papua New Guinea earthquake and post-seismic landslides associated with its four aftershocks, each exceeding Mw 6.0. We employ low-frequency, three-dimensional numerical ground shaking simulations and data-driven multivariate analyses to examine how landslides evolved from the coseismic to post-seismic periods. Our findings reveal a spatial shift in landslide distribution, in which the mainshock triggered slope failures predominantly on steep hillslopes, and the aftershocks triggered landslides on gentler slopes, often near geologic boundaries. We attribute this transition partly to the earthquake legacy effect of the mainshock, where the mainshock caused weakening of these hillslopes, making them more prone to failure when aftershocks occur. Additionally, the concentration of failures along geologic contacts in the post-seismic phase suggests that site amplification, stemming from contrasts in subsurface materials, exerts a key influence on landslide occurrence. Although not explicitly captured in our current numerical simulations, this mechanism warrants further investigation for more accurate hazard modeling.

JGR Solid Earth

Preface to the focus section on intraplate earthquakes

More than a half century after plate tectonics provided an overarching framework to explain earthquakes along active plate boundaries, numerous theories have been proposed to explain where, why, and how often earthquakes occur well away from active plate boundaries, but a paradigm remains elusive. Even the classification of earthquakes away from active plate boundaries as "intraplate" raises issues, with potentially important distinctions between Stable Continental Regions and more actively deforming regions including passive margins and failed rifts. Some of the largest known intraplate earthquakes themselves remain enigmatic, having occurred before the modern instrumental era. Hazard assessments are often data-limited: low fault-slip rates relative to landscape modification rates result in poor discoverability of fault sources, challenging the characterization of source zones and earthquake recurrence; the completeness and homogenization of instrumental earthquake catalogs using uncertain magnitude conversions can lead to uncertainties in earthquake recurrence; and, limited strong-motion observations for large-magnitude events at near-source distances leads to uncertainties in the selection and development of ground-motion models for seismic hazard studies. Data from recent intraplate earthquakes around the world—from the moment magnitude M 7.7 2001 Bhuj, India, earthquake 25 years ago to the 2024 M 4.8 Tewksbury, New Jersey earthquake—have yielded both new insights and new questions. The papers in this special focus discuss many of the long-standing challenges involved with intraplate earthquake investigations and provide a snapshot of the state of the art with current research to advance our understanding.

Seismological Research Letters

Preliminary observations of the April 5th, 2024, Mw4.8 New Jersey earthquake

On 5 April 2024, 10:23 a.m. local time, a moment magnitude 4.8 earthquake struck Tewksbury Township, New Jersey, about 65 km west of New York City. Millions of people from Virginia to Maine and beyond felt the ground shaking, resulting in the largest number (>180,000) of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) “Did You Feel It?” reports of any earthquake. A team deployed by the Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance Association and the National Institute of Standards and Technology documented structural and nonstructural damage, including substantial damage to a historic masonry building in Lebanon, New Jersey. The USGS National Earthquake Information Center reported a focal depth of about 5 km, consistent with a lack of signal in Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data. The focal mechanism solution is strike slip with a substantial thrust component. Neither mechanism’s nodal plane is parallel to the primary northeast trend of geologic discontinuities and mapped faults in the region, including the Ramapo fault. However, many of the relocated aftershocks, for which locations were augmented by temporary seismic deployments, form a cluster that parallels the general northeast trend of the faults. The aftershocks lie near the Tewksbury fault, north of the Ramapo fault.

New Jersey

Water use across the conterminous United States, water years 2010–20

Withdrawals of water for human use are fundamental to the evaluation of the Nation’s water availability. This chapter provides an analysis of public supply, crop irrigation, and thermoelectric power water use for the conterminous United States (CONUS) during water years 2010–20. These three categories account for about 90 percent of water withdrawals in the Nation. The values presented here are based on modeling approaches that estimate water use at temporal (monthly) and spatial scales (12-digit hydrologic unit code—small watersheds sized 50–100 square kilometers) compatible for integration into a broader national assessment of water availability. Models also provide an understanding of factors that influence water use. An estimated 244,817 million gallons per day (Mgal/d; 28,677 million cubic meters per month [Mm 3 /mo]) were withdrawn on average within the CONUS during water years 2010–20 from fresh water and saline water for crop irrigation, public supply, and thermoelectric power, with shares of 43, 14.5, and 42.5 percent for each of these categories, respectively. In the same period, estimated withdrawals and consumptive use (1) for public supply were 35,400 and 4,219 Mgal/d (4,081 and 486 Mm 3 /mo), respectively; (2) for crop irrigation were 105,497 and 75,698 Mgal/d (12,147 and 8,716 Mm 3 /mo), respectively; and (3) for thermoelectric power from fresh water were 82,656 and 2,904 Mgal/d (9,952 and 345 Mm 3 /mo), respectively. Withdrawals for these categories of water use are highly spatially variable, with western States dominated by crop irrigation and eastern States dominated by thermoelectric-power water use. Public supply accounts for the largest percentage of water use in several heavily populated northeastern States. Reliance on groundwater compared to surface water depends on the availability of water sources and the type of water use. For public supply, withdrawals from groundwater are greater than withdrawals from surface water in the Western aggregated hydrologic regions, whereas the balance shifts to more surface water for the rest of the CONUS. In all aggregated hydrologic regions, the predominant source of water for crop irrigation is groundwater. Most thermoelectric power facilities in the eastern half of the CONUS use surface water from freshwater and saline sources; most thermoelectric power facilities in the western half of the CONUS use groundwater.

conterminous United States

Central Valley Hydrologic Model version 2 (CVHM2): Decision support tool for groundwater and land subsidence management

The San Joaquin Valley (SJV) of California is one of the world’s most productive agricultural regions. Reliance on groundwater has led to some of the greatest rates of human-induced land subsidence in the world in the 20th century, as well as more recently. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has recently developed an integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model, the Central Valley Hydrologic Model 2 (CVHM2), that represents the major components of the hydrologic system of California’s Central Valley. In this study, CVHM2 was applied as a decision support tool while simulating various management strategies to mitigate the land subsidence caused by the extraction of groundwater. CVHM2 was extended through to 2073 and applied to simulate management scenarios in terms of three primary drivers and their impact on subsidence along the Delta–Mendota Canal (DMC), a critical piece of infrastructure in the western SJV. The drivers considered were agricultural water demands, managed aquifer recharge (MAR), and changes in future climate. The results show that future subsidence is most sensitive to water demands, second most sensitive to future changes in climate, and relatively insensitive to MAR when it is applied as a surface application in the western SJV. However, we demonstrate via proof-of-concept scenarios that the MAR is capable of arresting subsidence when implemented via injection below the Corcoran Clay Member of the Tulare Formation instead of as a surface application. We also examine the uncertainty that is the result of climate variability and how to use the tool to identify the most appropriate strategies to constrain future subsidence to acceptable levels.

California

Correlation analysis of groundwater and hydrologic data, Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park, Hawai‘i

Designated in 1978, Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park is located on the west coast of the Island of Hawaiʻi. The Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park encompasses about 1,200 acres of coastal land and nearshore ecosystems, which include wetlands, anchialine pools (landlocked bodies of brackish water with hydrologic connections to the ocean), fishponds, a fishtrap, and coral reefs. These nearshore ecosystems are dependent on groundwater discharge with a freshwater component and provide habitat for threatened and endangered, endemic species, such as the orangeblack Hawaiian damselfly ( Megalagrion xanthomelas ) and the Hawaiian coot (ʻAlae keʻokeʻo, Fulica alai ). The populations of these native species, however, are threatened because of habitat loss related to urban development and environmental changes. Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park is within the Keauhou aquifer system and the North Kona District, which experienced a 52 percent resident-population increase between 2000 and 2020 and a 41 percent visitor increase between 2008 and 2019. To support the current water demand associated with this growing population, groundwater is the primary source of freshwater used in the North Kona District, with about 15 million gallons of groundwater withdrawn from the Keauhou aquifer system per day since 2009. With anticipated development, future (2015–35) groundwater withdrawal from the Keauhou aquifer system is projected to be about 55 percent greater than recent (2012–14) withdrawal. Because Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park is located within a coastal aquifer, natural and human-induced changes can affect the quality and quantity of groundwater, which can threaten groundwater-dependent ecosystems. To improve understanding of recent groundwater conditions, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, undertook this study to document correlations between hydrologic time-series datasets from sites in and near Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park using the nonparametric (distribution-free) Kendall’s tau statistical test. For the statistical analyses, dependent variables representing the groundwater system include groundwater level, the groundwater-level difference between pairs of sites, and specific conductance, and independent variables include datasets of sea level, rainfall, and groundwater withdrawal. About 34 percent of the 140 non-time-lagged Kendall’s tau statistical tests evaluated in this report are statistically significant ( p -value ≤ 0.050) with generally weak (0.1 ≤ tau ≤ 0.2) to moderate (0.2 ≤ tau ≤ 0.3) correlations. Groundwater levels measured at monitoring sites have the strongest correlation with the multivariate El Niño–Southern Oscillation index and withdrawal from production wells at the nearby Kohanaiki Private Club Community. Specific conductance is not consistently and significantly correlated with the independent hydrologic variables investigated in this report. Because the relations between hydrologic variables are commonly not instantaneous, a second set of correlations was evaluated after applying a range of time lags to the independent variable datasets. Relative to the non-time-lagged case (the set of correlations that did not use time-lagged independent variables), some of the time-lagged independent variables improved correlations with some of the dependent variables. For a particular independent variable, similar time lags were expected between the independent variable and dependent variable at all four monitoring sites. However, different time lags among the four sites sometimes produced the strongest correlations. This study identified several correlations that are statistically significant and hydrologically plausible, but the correlations could indicate that multiple concurrent factors are controlling the observed groundwater-system response, which might be better addressed using multivariate analyses. This study only investigates bivariate correlations, which may not explain all the variance in the data. The correlations analyzed in this report are limited by the quantity of available hydrologic data in the area near Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park and are based on 14 years of time-series data, which were aggregated to a relatively coarse monthly temporal resolution that represents the minimum resolution common to all datasets.

Hawaii

Modeling byproduct and coproduct mine production and mineral substitution using multidimensional supply curves: Application to the Cu-Co-Ni system and beyond

Rapid demand growth is expected for many metals used in the energy transition. Many of these metals are byproducts of other commodities. Byproduct production’s price response is tied to host mineral economics, complicating its supply dynamics. Moreover, many of these metals are used in applications where the material properties desired are difficult to substitute; effectively, limiting how quickly demand can adapt to changes in commodity price. Previous work has demonstrated the interconnectivity of jointly produced mineral commodities from the supply side, where the copper–cobalt–nickel system was used and demand was assumed independent across commodities. Studies to understand byproduct-coproduct market interconnectivity on the demand side are limited, while studies on the interconnectivity of supply and demand simultaneously are even more so. We propose a modification to the multicommodity supply curve method to enable inter-commodity effects on demand simultaneous with supply. In batteries, high cobaltprices may push consumers to transition to high-nickel chemistries, causing the nickel demand surface to decrease with nickel price but increase with cobaltprice, creating a two-dimensional demand surface. Below cross-price elasticities of 0.05, inter-commodity effects were found to be negligible, potentially permitting exclusion of these effects for many commodities. This additional demand curve complexity introduces potential computation challenges alongside the capacity to model many interrelated commodity systems such as rare earth elements, ferroalloys, country-oriented subsidies or restrictions, and bifurcated sustainable metals markets. By presenting the work done on multicommodity supply surfaces to date and potential new directions, this work aims to catalyze the next round of innovative approaches to modeling jointly produced commodities.

Conference Paper

Treatability study to evaluate bioremediation of trichloroethene at Site K, former Twin Cities Army Ammunition Plant, Arden Hills, Minnesota, 2020–22

Executive Summary Chlorinated solvents, including trichloroethene (TCE) and other chlorinated volatile organic compounds (cVOCs), are widespread contaminants that can be treated by bioremediation approaches that enhance anaerobic reductive dechlorination. Reductive dechlorination can be enhanced either through the addition of an electron donor (biostimulation) or the addition of a known dechlorinating culture (bioaugmentation) along with an electron donor. Although bioremediation has been applied at many TCE-contaminated groundwater sites, application in source zones at sites where residual dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) is present is more limited. In this study, laboratory and field treatability tests were completed to evaluate the potential application of anaerobic bioremediation for a shallow groundwater plume containing TCE in a perched alluvial aquifer at Site K, former Twin Cities Army Ammunition Plant, Arden Hills, Minnesota, which was on the National Priorities List as the New Brighton/Arden Hills Superfund site until 2019. In addition to the presence of residual DNAPL at the site, temporal variability in groundwater flow directions and input of oxygenated recharge were possible complicating factors for the application of enhanced anaerobic biodegradation in the shallow plume. The Site K plume extends beneath the footprint of Building 103, which was demolished in 2006, and soil excavations to a maximum depth of 6 feet (ft) below ground surface in 2014 were known to leave some deeper contaminated soil in place in the TCE source area. Groundwater treatment at the site, formalized as part of the 1997 Record of Decision, has been in operation since 1986 and consists of an extraction trench at the downgradient edge of the plume to collect groundwater, which is then pumped to an on-site air stripper. Groundwater concentrations in the plume have been relatively stable since treatment began, indicating a continued source of TCE in the aquifer. The desire for a destructive remedy that would enhance the removal of cVOCs in the aquifer at Site K and shorten the remediation timeframe led the U.S. Army to request that the U.S. Geological Survey conduct a groundwater treatability study to assess bioremediation. This report describes the U.S. Geological Survey bioremediation treatability study conducted during 2020–22, including pre-design site characterization to assist in formulating the bioremediation approach, laboratory experiments to support the design of the field pilot test, and implementation and 1-year performance monitoring results for the pilot test. Pre-design site characterization included the collection of soil cores for cVOC analysis and lithologic descriptions and the re-installment of three wells to obtain hydrologic measurements and initial groundwater chemistry. Relatively flat head gradients were measured at the site, and substantial decreases in water-level elevations occurred from spring to summer (May–July 2021). Continuous water-level monitoring indicated a rapid response to precipitation. Groundwater flow velocities were consistently less than 0.5 foot per day, and the pilot bioremediation test was therefore designed with short lateral distances (about 5 ft) between injection and individual monitoring points. Soil analyses confirmed that high volatile organic compound contamination was left in place in the source area. The highest concentrations were near or in clay at the base of the perched aquifer. Concentrations of cVOCs measured in the replaced wells were consistent with historical data and had a maximum TCE concentration of 57,700 micrograms per liter (μg/L), indicative of nearby residual DNAPL based on the general rule of observed concentrations exceeding 1 percent of solubility. The primary TCE daughter product detected was 1,2-cis-dichloroethene (cisDCE), which indicated limited reductive dechlorination in the plume. Groundwater in both the source and downgradient areas was relatively reducing during the pre-design characterization, particularly in the source area where methane concentrations greater than 400 μg/L were measured. Initial laboratory tests conducted using native aquifer microorganisms from the three replacement wells showed that anaerobic TCE biodegradation rates were low when biostimulated with the addition of sodium lactate as an electron donor, also known as a carbon donor, and resulted in the production of only cisDCE. Addition of a known dechlorinating culture, WBC-2, however, resulted in rapid biodegradation and production of ethene, verifying complete reductive dechlorination of TCE. Microcosms constructed with aquifer soil collected from the site were used to evaluate other electron donors besides lactate to support reductive dechlorination by WBC-2, including corn syrup as an alternative fast-release compound and whey, soy-based vegetable oil, and 3-D Microemulsion (Regenesis, San Clemente, California) as slow-release compounds. First-order rate constants for total organic chlorine removal in these WBC-2 amended microcosms were greatest with either lactate or vegetable oil as the donor, ranging between 0.061 and 0.047 per day or corresponding half-lives of 11–15 days. Testing of commercial products in other WBC-2-bioaugmented microcosms led to selection for the field pilot test of an emulsified vegetable oil product that also contained some sodium lactate as a fast-release donor. Delaying the addition of WBC-2 relative to the donor in the microcosms resulted in the most rapid overall biodegradation rates. The selected design for the pilot test utilized three separate test plots, each about 30-ft wide and 60-ft long: plots GS1 and GS2 in the source area of the plume and plot GS3 in the downgradient area of the plume near the excavation trench. Each test plot had one injection well, one monitoring well upgradient from the injection point, and 12 surrounding monitoring wells in a grid to capture variable groundwater flow directions. Donor injections, which included a bromide tracer, were completed in October 2021, immediately following baseline sampling, and the WBC-2 culture was injected about 40 days later, between November 30 and December 2, 2021. Performance monitoring conducted until December 2022 included hydrologic measurements and analyses of cVOCs, redox-sensitive constituents, dissolved organic carbon, bromide, volatile fatty acids, compound-specific carbon isotopes, and microbial communities. The biogeochemical data collected during the pilot tests in the three treatment plots showed that enhanced, complete reductive dechlorination of cVOCs in the groundwater was achieved in the GS1 and GS3 plots. In contrast, evidence of distribution of the injected amendments and subsequent biodegradation was limited in GS2, which was in an area of more heterogeneous soil lithology and low water table elevations. The molar composition of volatile organic compounds in the GS1 and GS3 plots was dominated by ethene in wells that were reached by the injected amendments by the end of the monitoring period. In the GS1 and GS3 plots, similar patterns were observed of cVOC concentrations decreasing to near detection levels, or below, at some wells sampled in July and October 2022, whereas ethene became dominant and indicated sustained complete reductive dechlorination. Baseline cVOC concentrations were more than a factor of 10 higher in the groundwater in the GS1 plot than in GS3, but no apparent inhibition of complete dechlorination occurred. As expected from the initial pre-design site data and the laboratory experiments, enhanced dissolution of residual DNAPL coupled to biodegradation was evident in the GS1 plot, where a marked increase in dichloroethene (DCE) above the initial baseline and upgradient TCE and DCE concentrations occurred. DCE concentrations subsequently declined where DNAPL dissolution was evident, concurrent with production of vinyl chloride and then predominantly ethene. Thus, overall biodegradation rates outpaced the DNAPL dissolution and desorption and DCE production in the source area. This success in complete degradation to predominantly ethene was achieved even in areas where the DCE concentrations reached a maximum of about 30,000 μg/L. Compound specific isotope analysis of carbon in TCE, cisDCE, trans-1,2-dichloroethene, and vinyl chloride was conducted to provide another line of evidence of the occurrence and extent of anaerobic biodegradation. Along a flow path in each plot that was affected by the injected amendments, carbon isotopes in the TCE and daughter cVOCs in the groundwater became isotopically heavier, indicating biodegradation. Enhanced biodegradation rates calculated from the field tests in GS1 and GS3 showed half-lives of 36.9–75.3 days for DCE degradation and 9.48–38.5 days for ethene production. Notably, these ethene production rates calculated from the field tests are consistent with the results of WBC-2-bioaugmented microcosms amended with either lactate or vegetable oil, which had half-lives for total organic chlorine removal that ranged from 11 to 15 days. These rates indicated rapid enhanced biodegradation, which is promising for application of a full-scale bioremediation remedy. Ultimately, however, the mass of residual or sorbed TCE in the aquifer that remains accessible for dissolution and biodegradation would likely control the time required for a full-scale bioremediation effort to achieve performance goals for TCE and cisDCE specified in the Record of Decision for Site K. The field pilot tests showed that the relatively low hydraulic head gradients and temporal changes in groundwater flow directions in the shallow aquifer would add complexity to a full-scale bioremediation effort. The radius of influence (ROI) at GS1 and GS3 (16.3 ft and 12.7 ft, respectively) were close to the design ROI of 15 ft. The estimated ROI at GS2 was about four times the design ROI, but may be less reliable at this location owing to groundwater flow direction. In addition, the low temperatures following WBC-2 injection in late November to early December 2021, in combination with the low hydraulic head gradients, were probably major factors in the delay observed before the onset of enhanced biodegradation following injection of the culture. Additional test injections could be beneficial to optimize the timing of donor and culture injections with the variable temperatures and hydraulic head in the shallow aquifer.

Minnesota

Characteristics of the fault damage zone From high-resolution seismic imaging along the Palos Verdes Fault, California

The distribution and intensity of fault damage zones provides insight into fault activity and its relationship to fluid flow in the crust. Presently, measures of the in-situ distribution of fault damage remain limited and along-strike studies are rare. This study focuses on an offshore section Palos Verdes Fault damage zone that spans 28 km, near Los Angeles, California. To investigate the previously unresolved shallow (∼400 m below the seafloor) fault damage zone we use densely spaced (∼500 m line separation) newly collected sparker multichannel seismic lines and sub-bottom profiles. The combination of high-resolution acquisition methods and specialized seismic processing workflows provide improved imaging of shallow faulting. We apply a multi-trace similarity technique to identify discontinuities in the seismic data that may be attributed to faults and fractures. This fault detection approach reveals diverse fault damage patterns on adjacent seismic profiles. However, a discernible damage zone pattern emerges by stacking multiple damage detection profiles along strike. We find that peak damage identified in this way corresponds to the active main fault strand, confirmed in this study, and thus the technique may be useful for identifying active fault strands elsewhere. Additionally, we observe that the variable width of the damage zone along strike is controlled by fault obliquity. Furthermore, our observations reveal a correlation between fault damage and seafloor fluid seeps visible in the water column, suggesting that damage plays a role in controlling fluid flow around the fault.

California