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At least 469 records · Page 26Linked to original sources

The 2015 landslide and tsunami in Taan Fiord, Alaska

Glacial retreat in recent decades has exposed unstable slopes and allowed deep water to extend beneath some of those slopes. Slope failure at the terminus of Tyndall Glacier on 17 October 2015 sent 180 million tons of rock into Taan Fiord, Alaska. The resulting tsunami reached elevations as high as 193 m, one of the highest tsunami runups ever documented worldwide. Precursory deformation began decades before failure, and the event left a distinct sedimentary record, showing that geologic evidence can help understand past occurrences of similar events, and might provide forewarning. The event was detected within hours through automated seismological techniques, which also estimated the mass and direction of the slide - all of which were later confirmed by remote sensing. Our field observations provide a benchmark for modeling landslide and tsunami hazards. Inverse and forward modeling can provide the framework of a detailed understanding of the geologic and hazards implications of similar events. Our results call attention to an indirect effect of climate change that is increasing the frequency and magnitude of natural hazards near glaciated mountains.

Alaska↗

Range-wide population genetic analysis of Seaside Sparrows (Ammospiza maritima) supports at least five distinct population segments that do not align with current subspecies descriptions

As an obligate salt marsh species, Seaside Sparrows ( Ammospiza maritima ) are vulnerable to numerous threats including climate change, coastal erosion, sea-level rise, and both natural and anthropogenic disasters. Of the 9 recognized subspecies, 2 are extinct and 1 is endangered. Previous genetic analyses of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and microsatellite loci showed that current taxonomy does not accurately reflect underlying genetic diversity, with possible consequences for the distribution of conservation resources. To further inform Seaside Sparrow management, we comprehensively describe genetic structure among 24 range-wide sampling locations that include all extant subspecies. We inferred population structure from several thousand single-nucleotide polymorphisms collected from 272 individuals via restriction-site-associated DNA sequencing. Principal components, pairwise F ST values, and clustering approaches suggest that Seaside Sparrows on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are distinct and consist of at least 5 genetic clusters: 1 in southern Texas, 1 ranging from Aransas County, Texas, to Mississippi; 1 in western Florida; and 2 or 3 genetic groups intermixed along a gradient on the Atlantic Coast. These genetic clusters are not consistent with current subspecies taxonomy and could be used as distinct population segments (DPSs) to inform the most efficient allocation of resources to Seaside Sparrow conservation. Our results regarding the endangered subspecies, A. m. mirabilis , from southern Florida are inconclusive due to low sample size, but indicate that it is distinct and may represent a sixth DPS. Based on our genetic results, we recommend additional song and morphometric analyses in western Florida and a closer study of the boundary between the breeding distributions of A. m. maritima and A. m. macgillivraii to ensure the proper identification of DPSs.

Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico↗

Attribution of declining Western U.S. Snowpack to human effects

Observations show snowpack has declined across much of the western United States over the period 1950-99. This reduction has important social and economic implications, as water retained in the snowpack from winter storms forms an important part of the hydrological cycle and water supply in the region. A formal model-based detection and attribution (D-A) study of these reductions is performed. The detection variable is the ratio of 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) to water-year-to-date precipitation (P), chosen to reduce the effect of P variability on the results. Estimates of natural internal climate variability are obtained from 1600 years of two control simulations performed with fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Estimates of the SWE/P response to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, and some aerosols are taken from multiple-member ensembles of perturbation experiments run with two models. The D-A shows the observations and anthropogenically forced models have greater SWE/P reductions than can be explained by natural internal climate variability alone. Model-estimated effects of changes in solar and volcanic forcing likewise do not explain the SWE/P reductions. The mean model estimate is that about half of the SWE/P reductions observed in the west from 1950 to 1999 are the result of climate changes forced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, and aerosols. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Climate↗

Paleoecology and ecosystem restoration: Case studies from Chesapeake Bay and the Florida Everglades

Climate extremes that cause droughts, floods, or large temperature fluctuations can complicate ecosystem restoration efforts focused on local and regional human disturbance. Restoration targets are often based primarily on monitoring data and modeling simulations, which provide information on species' short-term response to disturbance and environmental variables. Consequently, the targets may be unsustainable under the spectrum of natural variability inherent in the system or under future climate change. Increasingly, ecologists and restoration planners recognize the value of the long temporal perspective provided by paleoecological data. Advances in paleoclimatology, including better climate proxy methods and temporal resolution, contribute to our understanding of ecosystem response to anthropogenic and climatic forcing at all time scales. We highlight paleoecological research in the Chesapeake Bay and the Florida Everglades and summarize the resulting contributions to restoration planning. Integration of paleoecological, historic, monitoring, and modeling efforts will lead to the development of sustainable, adaptive management strategies for ecosystem restoration.

Delaware, Florida, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvani↗

Methods of practice and guidelines for using survey-grade global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) to establish vertical datum in the United States Geological Survey

Geodetic surveys have evolved through the years to the use of survey-grade (centimeter level) global positioning to perpetuate and post-process vertical datum. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) uses Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) technology to monitor natural hazards, ensure geospatial control for climate and land use change, and gather data necessary for investigative studies related to water, the environment, energy, and ecosystems. Vertical datum is fundamental to a variety of these integrated earth sciences. Essentially GNSS surveys provide a three-dimensional position x, y, and z as a function of the North American Datum of 1983 ellipsoid and the most current hybrid geoid model. A GNSS survey may be approached with post-processed positioning for static observations related to a single point or network, or involve real-time corrections to provide positioning "on-the-fly." Field equipment required to facilitate GNSS surveys range from a single receiver, with a power source for static positioning, to an additional receiver or network communicated by radio or cellular for real-time positioning. A real-time approach in its most common form may be described as a roving receiver augmented by a single-base station receiver, known as a single-base real-time (RT) survey. More efficient real-time methods involving a Real-Time Network (RTN) permit the use of only one roving receiver that is augmented to a network of fixed receivers commonly known as Continually Operating Reference Stations (CORS). A post-processed approach in its most common form involves static data collection at a single point. Data are most commonly post-processed through a universally accepted utility maintained by the National Geodetic Survey (NGS), known as the Online Position User Service (OPUS). More complex post-processed methods involve static observations among a network of additional receivers collecting static data at known benchmarks. Both classifications provide users flexibility regarding efficiency and quality of data collection. Quality assurance of survey-grade global positioning is often overlooked or not understood and perceived uncertainties can be misleading. GNSS users can benefit from a blueprint of data collection standards used to ensure consistency among USGS mission areas. A classification of GNSS survey qualities provide the user with the ability to choose from the highest quality survey used to establish objective points with low uncertainties, identified as a Level I, to a GNSS survey for general topographic control without quality assurance, identified as a Level IV. A Level I survey is strictly limited to post-processed methods, whereas Level II, Level III, and Level IV surveys integrate variations of a RT approach. Among these classifications, techniques involving blunder checks and redundancy are important, and planning that involves the assessment of the overall satellite configuration, as well as terrestrial and space weather, are necessary to ensure an efficient and quality campaign. Although quality indicators and uncertainties are identified in post-processed methods using CORS, the accuracy of a GNSS survey is most effectively expressed as a comparison to a local benchmark that has a high degree of confidence. Real-time and post-processed methods should incorporate these "trusted" benchmarks as a check during any campaign. Global positioning surveys are expected to change rapidly in the future. The expansion of continuously operating reference stations, combined with newly available satellite signals, and enhancements to the conterminous geoid, are all sufficient indicators for substantial growth in real-time positioning and quality thereof.

Techniques and Methods↗

DOI Climate Science Centers--Regional science to address management priorities

Our Nation's lands, waters, and ecosystems and the living and cultural resources they contain face myriad challenges from invasive species, the effects of changing land and water use, habitat fragmentation and degradation, and other influences. These challenges are compounded by increasing influences from a changing climate—higher temperatures, increasing droughts, floods, and wildfires, and overall increasing variability in weather and climate. The Department of the Interior (DOI) has established eight regional Climate Science Centers (CSC) (fig. 1) that will provide scientific information and tools to natural and cultural resource managers as they plan for conserving these resources in a changing world. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) is managing the CSCs on behalf of the DOI.

Fact Sheet↗

Foreword: The dynamics of change in Alaska’s boreal forests: Resilience and vulnerability in response to climate warming

Long-term research by the Bonanza Creek (BNZ) Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) program has documented natural patterns of interannual and successional variability of the boreal forest in interior Alaska against which we can detect changes in system behavior. Between 2004 and 2010 the BNZ LTER program focused on understanding the dynamics of change through studying the resilience and vulnerability of Alaska's boreal forest in response to climate warming. The overarching question in this endeavor has been “How are boreal ecosystems responding, both gradually and abruptly, to climate warming, and what new landscape patterns are emerging?”

Alaska↗

Native fish need a natural flow regime

Water development has threatened the ecological integrity of riverine ecosystems. Increasing water demand, persistent drought, and climate change exacerbate the effects of habitat degradation and loss in altered systems such as the Colorado River basin. Today, biologists are challenged to identify management actions that benefit native fishes while not hindering water development or management. Herein, we discuss the importance of the natural flow regime for functioning riverine ecosystems and provide examples from four tributaries to the Green River, a major headwater branch of the Colorado River. These tributaries represent a gradient of impacts ranging from water abstraction to the point of complete seasonal desiccation to a relatively natural flow regime, and consequently have maintained different levels of instream habitat complexity and native fish persistence. Despite decades of management, endangered species lack self-sustaining populations and other native species have been extirpated from over half their ranges, which begs the question: can water development and fish conservation be balanced under current water laws and climate change-driven declines in runoff? Given the continued decline in freshwater biodiversity and abundance occurring across the globe, we contend that immediate designation of rivers with natural flow regimes as freshwater conservation areas will enhance native species recovery.

Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming↗

Sound data management as a foundation for natural resources management and science

Effective decision making is closely related to the quality and completeness of available data and information. Data management helps to ensure data quality in any discipline and supports decision making. Managing data as a long-term scientific asset helps to ensure that data will be usable beyond the original intended application. Emerging issues in water-resources management and climate variability require the ability to analyze change in the conditions of natural resources over time. The availability of quality, well-managed, and documented data from the past and present helps support this requirement.

Fact Sheet↗

Examining the mechanisms of species responses to climate change: Are there biological thresholds?

Climate-change-driven shifts in distribution and abundance have been documented in many species. However, in order to better predict species responses, managers are seeking to understand the mechanisms that are driving these changes, including any thresholds that might soon be crossed. Leveraging the research that has already been supported by the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center and its partners, this project used the latest modeling techniques combined with robust field data to examine the impact of specific climate variables, land use change, and species interactions on the future distribution and abundance of species of conservation concern. Moreover, this project documented biological thresholds related to climate variability and change for critical species in the Northeastern and Midwestern U.S. Specifically, our objectives were to identify the primary drivers (climate change vs. urban growth) of species distribution changes in the Northeast; examine the nature of species landscape capability change over time to identify potential thresholds; determine how changing temperatures and snowpack characteristics will drive species interactions; analyze the sensitivity of tree and bird responses to the magnitude, variability, periodicity, and seasonality of temperature and precipitation under climate change in the eastern U.S.; and identify how discrete climate triggers such as extreme events will correlate with known biological thresholds. Major outcomes included 1) refining the understanding of the mechanisms that drive projected changes in the distribution of vulnerable populations; and 2) improving how these results are conveyed to stakeholders by identifying understandable responses in the form of thresholds.

Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Ke↗

Climate, sea level, and people - Changing South Florida's mangrove coast

South Florida’s coast is a land of contrasts that appeals to almost everyone, whether they seek out quiet natural environments along the mangrove waterways and in the wilderness of the Everglades or vibrant international culture in Miami. Yet this paradise is threatened by a number of forces – changing climate, rising sea level, and too many people, to name a few. Florida’s past is filled with stories of dramatic change and resiliency, if we look at the geologic record. It also hints at the role of climate alone, in the absence of significant sea level change, in shaping the mangrove coast. Using our knowledge of present-day processes, such as impacts of storms on the mangroves, combined with our interpretation of the past geologic record, is the best way to anticipate future changes. The question is, have humans altered this landscape so much that the species and habitats have lost their natural resiliency, and if they have, what will happen to the people and the unique environments of south Florida?

Florida↗

Responding to climate change: A toolbox of management strategies: Chapter 11

Climate change and its effects are writ large across the landscape and in the natural and cultural heritage of parks and wilderness. They always have been and always will be. The sculpted walls of Yosemite National Park and the jagged scenery of the Sierra Nevada wilderness would not be as spectacular if periods of glaciation had not been followed by periods of deglaciation. High biodiversity in forests of the Great Smoky Mountains reflects a legacy of climate change, migrating species, and isolated climatic refugia. Fossils unearthed at Dinosaur National Monument reflect a time when the climate was very different than it is today, as do ruins left by peoples who practiced agriculture in places in the American Southwest where food production is not possible today. Over eons, climate change has molded the diversity of life and landscape in areas now protected as parks and wilderness.

Book chapter↗

Isotopes as indicators of environmental change

In addition to providing an understanding of processes within a catchment system, isotopic techniques have been instrumental in providing reconstructions of catchment climate and other environmental indicators at various time scales. Many recent changes are a direct consequence of anthropogenic activities. Isotopic analysis serves as a valuable tool for distinguishing between natural variations in long-term climatic patterns and anthropogenic effects, yielding improved understanding of natural feedback mechanisms and the development of realistic remediation strategies. This chapter discusses the examples of isotopic techniques that have been applied to understand several types of ongoing and recent environmental changes, and in paleo-environmental studies. It discusses isotope geochemistry, hydrology, and climatology to look at new ways of applying isotopic tracing techniques to provide information on environmental change. It also gives an overview on how isotopic indicators are being applied in investigations of environmental change in continental settings.

Book chapter↗

Dynamic reserve design in the face of climate change and urbanization

Reserve design is a process that must address many ecological, social, and political factors to successfully identify parcels of land in need of protection to sustain wildlife populations and other natural resources. Making land acquisition choices for a large, terrestrial protected area is difficult because it occurs over a long timeframe and may involve consideration future conditions such as climate and urbanization changes. Decision makers need to consider factors including: order of parcel purchasing given budget constraints, future uncertainty, potential future landscape‐scale changes from urbanization and climate. In central Florida, two new refuges and the expansion of a third refuge are in various stages of USFWS planning. The Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge (EHNWR) has recently been established, is at the top of the Presidential Administration’s priority conservation areas, and is cited by the Secretary of DOI routinely in the context of conservation. The new refuges were strategically located for both for species adaptation from climate change impacts as well as currently being host to a number of important threatened and endangered species and habitats. We plan to combine a structured decision making framework, optimal solution theory, and output from ecological and sociological models (these modeling efforts were previously funded by DOI partners) that incorporate climate change to provide guidance for EHNWR reserve design. Utilizing a SDM approach and optimal solution theory, decision support tools will be developed that will incorporate stakeholder and agency objectives into targeting conservation lands both through fee simple purchase and other incentives such as easements based on ecological and socioeconomic modeling outputs driven by climate change.

Report↗

The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

Context Temperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts. Objectives The goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow ( Ammodramus henslowii ), an obligate grassland bird that has been declining throughout much of its range, to past and future climatic variability. Methods We conducted a demographic meta-analysis from published studies and quantified the relationship between nest success rates and variability in breeding season climate. We projected the climate-demography relationships spatially, throughout the breeding range, and temporally, from 1981 to 2050. These projections were used to evaluate population dynamics by implementing a spatially explicit population model. Results We uncovered a climate-demography linkage for Henslow’s Sparrow with summer precipitation, and to a lesser degree, temperature positively affecting nest success. We found that future climatic conditions—primarily changes in precipitation—will likely contribute to reduced population persistence and a southwestward range contraction. Conclusions Future distributional shifts in response to climate change may not always be poleward and assessing projected changes in precipitation is critical for grassland bird conservation and climate change adaptation.

Landscape Ecology↗

Paleoceanographic perspectives on Arctic Ocean change

The Arctic Ocean is presently experiencing changes in ocean temperature and sea ice extent that are unprecedented in the observational time period (satellite observations: 1979-Present). To provide context for the current changes, scientists turn to paleo records of past climate to document and study natural variability in the Arctic system. Paleoceanographic records that extend limited Arctic instrumental measurements are central to improving our understanding of sea ice dynamics and ocean warming and for enhancing the predictive capability of models. By coupling paleoceanographic records with modern observations, scientists can also contextualize the rate and magnitude of modern change with the deep past.

Arctic Report Card↗

Expression plasticity regulates intraspecific variation in the acclimatization potential of a reef-building coral

Phenotypic plasticity is an important ecological and evolutionary response for organisms experiencing environmental change, but the ubiquity of this capacity within coral species and across symbiont communities is unknown. We exposed ten genotypes of the reef-building coral Montipora capitata with divergent symbiont communities to four thermal pre-exposure profiles and quantified gene expression before stress testing 4 months later. Here we show two pre-exposure profiles significantly enhance thermal tolerance despite broadly different expression patterns and substantial variation in acclimatization potential based on coral genotype. There was no relationship between a genotype’s basal thermal sensitivity and ability to acquire heat tolerance, including in corals harboring naturally tolerant symbionts, which illustrates the potential for additive improvements in coral response to climate change. These results represent durable improvements from short-term stress hardening of reef-building corals and substantial cryptic complexity in the capacity for plasticity.

Nature Communications↗

Fluctuating Arctic Sea ice thickness changes estimated by an in situ learned and empirically forced neural network model

Sea ice thickness (SIT) is a key parameter of scientific interest because understanding the natural spatiotemporal variability of ice thickness is critical for improving global climate models. In this paper, changes in Arctic SIT during 1982-2003 are examined using a neural network (NN) algorithm trained with in situ submarine ice draft and surface drilling data. For each month of the study period, the NN individually estimated SIT of each ice-covered pixel (25-km resolution) based on seven geophysical parameters (four shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes, surface air temperature, ice drift velocity, and ice divergence/convergence) that were cumulatively summed at each monthly position along the pixel's previous 3-yr drift track (or less if the ice was <3 yr old). Average January SIT increased during 1982-88 in most regions of the Arctic (+7.6 ?? 0.9 cm yr-1), decreased through 1996 Arctic-wide (-6.1 ?? 1.2 cm yr-1), then modestly increased through 2003 mostly in the central Arctic (+2.1 ?? 0.6 cm yr-1). Net ice volume change in the Arctic Ocean from 1982 to 2003 was negligible, indicating that cumulative ice growth had largely replaced the estimated 45 000 km3 of ice lost by cumulative export. Above 65??N, total annual ice volume and interannual volume changes were correlated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) at decadal and annual time scales, respectively. Late-summer ice thickness and total volume varied proportionally until the mid-1990s, but volume did not increase commensurate with the thickening during 1996-2002. The authors speculate that decoupling of the ice thickness-volume relationship resulted from two opposing mechanisms with different latitudinal expressions: a recent quasi-decadal shift in atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the AO's neutral state facilitated ice thickening at high latitudes while anomalously warm thermal forcing thinned and melted the ice cap at its periphery. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Climate↗