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At least 469 records · Page 26Linked to original sources

USGS2000

Application of nonlinear least-squares regression to ground-water flow modeling, west-central Florida

A nonlinear least-squares regression technique for estimation of ground-water flow model parameters was applied to an existing model of the regional aquifer system underlying west-central Florida. The regression technique minimizes the differences between measured and simulated water levels. Regression statistics, including parameter sensitivities and correlations, were calculated for reported parameter values in the existing model. Optimal parameter values for selected hydrologic variables of interest are estimated by nonlinear regression. Optimal estimates of parameter values are about 140 times greater than and about 0.01 times less than reported values. Independently estimating all parameters by nonlinear regression was impossible, given the existing zonation structure and number of observations, because of parameter insensitivity and correlation. Although the model yields parameter values similar to those estimated by other methods and reproduces the measured water levels reasonably accurately, a simpler parameter structure should be considered. Some possible ways of improving model calibration are to: (1) modify the defined parameter-zonation structure by omitting and/or combining parameters to be estimated; (2) carefully eliminate observation data based on evidence that they are likely to be biased; (3) collect additional water-level data; (4) assign values to insensitive parameters, and (5) estimate the most sensitive parameters first, then, using the optimized values for these parameters, estimate the entire data set.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2000

MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey Modular Ground-Water Model -Documentation of the Hydrogeologic-Unit Flow (HUF) Package

This report documents the Hydrogeologic-Unit Flow (HUF) Package for the groundwater modeling computer program MODFLOW-2000. The HUF Package is an alternative internal flow package that allows the vertical geometry of the system hydrogeology to be defined explicitly within the model using hydrogeologic units that can be different than the definition of the model layers. The HUF Package works with all the processes of MODFLOW-2000. For the Ground-Water Flow Process, the HUF Package calculates effective hydraulic properties for the model layers based on the hydraulic properties of the hydrogeologic units, which are defined by the user using parameters. The hydraulic properties are used to calculate the conductance coefficients and other terms needed to solve the ground-water flow equation. The sensitivity of the model to the parameters defined within the HUF Package input file can be calculated using the Sensitivity Process, using observations defined with the Observation Process. Optimal values of the parameters can be estimated by using the Parameter-Estimation Process. The HUF Package is nearly identical to the Layer-Property Flow (LPF) Package, the major difference being the definition of the vertical geometry of the system hydrogeology. Use of the HUF Package is illustrated in two test cases, which also serve to verify the performance of the package by showing that the Parameter-Estimation Process produces the true parameter values when exact observations are used.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2026

Magnitude conversion relations create substantial differences in seismic hazard models

Earthquake catalogs are essential data inputs for seismic hazard modeling. Because earthquake magnitudes are reported in a variety of types (e.g., local magnitudes and moment magnitudes), magnitude conversion relationships must be used to convert the different magnitude types present in a catalog to a uniform magnitude type to avoid biases in the hazard computation. However, these conversion relationships are often uncertain and have been shown to sometimes perform poorly. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of the gridded seismicity component of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) to the catalog conversion equations in the Eastern United States. In the 2023 NSHM, magnitudes of various types were converted to moment magnitudes using equations developed by the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities (CEUS‐SSCn), based on least‐squares (LS) regressions made using data from a catalog containing events up through 2008. We recompute these equations using events in the Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog with multiple magnitudes from 2000 to 2023. Although we prefer the use of orthogonal regressions for our datasets, LS regressions produce broadly similar results, with both approaches exhibiting large deviations from the CEUS‐SSCn conversions, especially at smaller magnitudes. We compare the spatial distribution of annual rates using three different models: (1) the 2023 NSHM conversions, (2) our updated conversions, and (3) no conversions. We find that the choice of conversions leads to substantial differences in the rate forecasts, which can greatly impact the seismic hazard model, particularly in regions with low‐seismicity rates such as the Eastern United States, where the hazard is dominated by gridded seismicity rather than a fault model.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2012

Dissolved oxygen analysis, TMDL model comparison, and particulate matter shunting—Preliminary results from three model scenarios for the Klamath River upstream of Keno Dam, Oregon

Efforts are underway to identify actions that would improve water quality in the Link River to Keno Dam reach of the Upper Klamath River in south-central Oregon. To provide further insight into water-quality improvement options, three scenarios were developed, run, and analyzed using previously calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 hydrodynamic and water-quality models. Additional scenarios are under development as part of this ongoing study. Most of these scenarios evaluate changes relative to a "current conditions" model, but in some cases a "natural conditions" model was used that simulated the reach without the effect of point and nonpoint sources and set Upper Klamath Lake at its Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) targets. These scenarios were simulated using a model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Watercourse Engineering, Inc. for the years 2006–09, referred to here as the "USGS model." Another model of the reach was developed by Tetra Tech, Inc. for years 2000 and 2002 to support the Klamath River TMDL process; that model is referred to here as the "TMDL model." The three scenarios described in this report included (1) an analysis of whether this reach of the Upper Klamath River would be in compliance with dissolved oxygen standards if sources met TMDL allocations, (2) an application of more recent datasets to the TMDL model with comparison to results from the USGS model, and (3) an examination of the effect on dissolved oxygen in the Klamath River if particulate material were stopped from entering Klamath Project diversion canals. Updates and modifications to the USGS model are in progress, so in the future these scenarios will be reanalyzed with the updated model and the interim results presented here will be superseded. Significant findings from this phase of the investigation include: * The TMDL analysis used depth-averaged dissolved oxygen concentrations from model output for comparison with dissolved oxygen standards. The Oregon dissolved oxygen standards do not specify whether the numeric criteria are based on depth-averaged dissolved oxygen concentration; this was an interpretation of the standards rule by the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (ODEQ). In this study, both depth-averaged and volume-averaged dissolved oxygen concentrations were calculated from model output. Results showed that modeled depth-averaged concentrations typically were lower than volume-averaged dissolved oxygen concentrations because depth-averaging gives a higher weight to small volume areas near the channel bottom that often have lower dissolved oxygen concentrations. Results from model scenarios in this study are reported using volume-averaged dissolved oxygen concentrations. * Under all scenarios analyzed, violations of the dissolved oxygen standard occurred most often in summer. Of the three dissolved oxygen criteria that must be met, the 30-day standard was violated most frequently. Under the base case (current conditions), fewer violations occurred in the upstream part of the reach. More violations occurred in the down-stream direction, due in part to oxygen demand from the decay of algae and organic matter from Link River and other inflows. * A condition in which Upper Klamath Lake and its Link River outflow achieved Upper Klamath Lake TMDL water-quality targets was most effective in reducing the number of violations of the dissolved oxygen standard in the Link River to Keno Dam reach of the Klamath River. The condition in which point and nonpoint sources within the Link River to Keno Dam reach met Klamath River TMDL allocations had no effect on dissolved oxygen compliance in some locations and a small effect in others under current conditions. On the other hand, meeting TMDL allocations for nonpoint and point sources was predicted to be important in meeting dissolved oxygen criteria when Upper Klamath Lake and Link River also met Upper Klamath TMDL water-quality targets. * The location of greatest dissolved oxygen improvement from nutrient and organic matter reductions was downstream from point and nonpoint source inflows because time and distance are required for decay to occur and for oxygen demand to be exerted. * After assessing compliance with dissolved oxygen standards at all 102 model segments in the Link River to Keno Dam reach, it was determined that the seven locations used by ODEQ appear to be a representative subset of the reach for dissolved oxygen analysis. * The USGS and TMDL models were qualitatively compared by running both models for the 2006–09 period but preserving the essential characteristics of each, such as organic matter partitioning, bathymetric representation, and parameter rates. The analysis revealed that some constituents were not greatly affected by the differing algorithms, rates, and assumptions in the two models. Conversely, other constituents, especially organic matter, were simulated differently by the two models. Organic matter in this river system is best represented by a mixture of relatively labile particulate material and a substantial concentration of refractory dissolved material. In addition, the use of a first-order sediment oxygen demand, as in the USGS model, helps to capture the seasonal and dynamic effect of settled organic and algal material. * Simulation of shunting (diverting) particulate material away from the intake of four Klamath Project diversion canals, so that the material stayed in the river and out of the Project area, caused higher concentrations of particulate material to occur in the river. In all cases modeled, the increase in in-river particulate material also produced decreased dissolved oxygen concentrations and an increase in the number of days when dissolved oxygen standards were violated. * If particulate material were shunted back into the river at the Klamath Project diversion canals, less organic matter and nutrients would be taken into the Klamath Project area and the Lost River basin, resulting in return flows to the Klamath River via Lost River Diversion Channel that may have reduced nutrient concentrations. Model scenarios bracketing potential end-member nutrient concentrations showed that the composition of the return flows had little to no effect on dissolved oxygen compliance under simulated conditions.

Oregon↗

USGS2009

Geologic Criteria for the Assessment of Sedimentary Exhalative (Sedex) Zn-Pb-Ag Deposits

Sedex deposits account for more than 50 percent of the world's zinc and lead reserves and furnish more than 25 percent of the world's production of these two metals. This report draws on previous syntheses as well as on topical studies of deposits in sedex basins to determine the characteristics and processes that produced sedex deposits. This analysis also uses studies of the tectonic, sedimentary, and fluid evolution of modern and ancient sedimentary basins and mass balance constraints to identify the hydrothermal processes that are required to produce sedex deposits. This report demonstrates how a genetic model can be translated into geologic criteria that can be used in the U.S. Geological Survey National Assessments for sedex zinc-lead-silver deposits to define permissive tracts, assess the relative prospectivity of permissive tracts, and map favorability within permissive tracts.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

Development of a precipitation-runoff model to simulate unregulated streamflow in the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Montana

This report documents the development of a precipitation-runoff model for the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Mont. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, developed in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, can be used to simulate daily mean unregulated streamflow upstream and downstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir for water-resources planning. Two input files are required to run the model. The time-series data file contains daily precipitation data and daily minimum and maximum air-temperature data from climate stations in and near the South Fork Flathead River Basin. The parameter file contains values of parameters that describe the basin topography, the flow network, the distribution of the precipitation and temperature data, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. A primary-parameter file was created for simulating streamflow during the study period (water years 1967-2005). The model was calibrated for water years 1991-2005 using the primary-parameter file. This calibration was further refined using snow-covered area data for water years 2001-05. The model then was tested for water years 1967-90. Calibration targets included mean monthly and daily mean unregulated streamflow upstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir, mean monthly unregulated streamflow downstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir, basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration, and daily snapshots of basin snow-covered area. Simulated streamflow generally was in better agreement with observed streamflow at the upstream gage than at the downstream gage. Upstream from the reservoir, simulated mean annual streamflow was within 0.0 percent of observed mean annual streamflow for the calibration period and was about 2 percent higher than observed mean annual streamflow for the test period. Simulated mean April-July streamflow upstream from the reservoir was about 1 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and about 4 percent higher than observed for the test period. Downstream from the reservoir, simulated mean annual streamflow was 17 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and 12 percent lower than observed streamflow for the test period. Simulated mean April-July streamflow downstream from the reservoir was 13 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and 6 percent lower than observed streamflow for the test period. Calibrating to solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, and snow-covered area improved the model representation of evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, and snowmelt processes. Simulated basin mean monthly solar radiation values for both the calibration and test periods were within 9 percent of observed values except during the month of December (28 percent different). Simulated basin potential evapotranspiration values for both the calibration and test periods were within 10 percent of observed values except during the months of January (100 percent different) and February (13 percent different). The larger percent errors in simulated potential evaporation occurred in the winter months when observed potential evapotranspiration values were very small; in January the observed value was 0.000 inches and in February the observed value was 0.009 inches. Simulated start of melting of the snowpack occurred at about the same time as observed start of melting. The simulated snowpack accumulated to 90-100 percent snow-covered area 1 to 3 months earlier than observed snowpack. This overestimated snowpack during the winter corresponded to underestimated streamflow during the same period. In addition to the primary-parameter file, four other parameter files were created: for a "recent" period (1991-2005), a historical period (1967-90), a "wet" period (1989-97), and a "dry" period (1998-2005). For each data file of projected precipitation and air temperature, a single parameter file can be used to simulate a s

Montana;Idaho↗

USGS1999

Procedures and computer programs for telescopic mesh refinement using MODFLOW

Ground-water models are commonly used to evaluate flow systems in areas that are small relative to entire aquifer systems. In many of these analyses, simulation of the entire flow system is not desirable or will not allow sufficient detail in the area of interest. The procedure of telescopic mesh refinement allows use of a small, detailed model in the area of interest by taking boundary conditions from a larger model that encompasses the model in the area of interest. Some previous studies have used telescopic mesh refinement; however, better procedures are needed in carrying out telescopic mesh refinement using the U.S. Geological Survey ground-water flow model, referred to as MODFLOW. This report presents general procedures and three computer programs for use in telescopic mesh refinement with MODFLOW. The first computer program, MODTMR, constructs MODFLOW data sets for a local or embedded model using MODFLOW data sets and simulation results from a regional or encompassing model. The second computer program, TMRDIFF, provides a means of comparing head or drawdown in the local model with head or drawdown in the corresponding area of the regional model. The third program, RIVGRID, provides a means of constructing data sets for the River Package, Drain Package, General-Head Boundary Package, and Stream Package for regional and local models using grid-independent data specifying locations of these features. RIVGRID may be needed in some applications of telescopic mesh refinement because regional-model data sets do not contain enough information on locations of head-dependent flow features to properly locate the features in local models. The program is a general utility program that can be used in constructing data sets for head-dependent flow packages for any MODFLOW model under construction.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1983

Results of an adaptive environmental assessment modeling workshop concerning potential impacts of drilling muds and cuttings on the marine environment

Drilling fluids or "muds" are essential components of modern drilling operations. They provide integrity for the well bore, a medium for removal of formation cuttings, and lubrication and cooling of the drill bit and pipe. The modeling workshop described in this report was conducted September 14-18, 1981 in Gulf Breeze, Florida to consider potential impacts of discharged drilling muds and cuttings on the marine environment. The broad goals of the workshop were synthesis of information on fate and effects, identification of general relationships between drilling fluids and the marine environment, and identification of site-specific variables likely to determine impacts of drilling muds and cuttings in various marine sites. The workshop was structured around construction of a model simulating fate and effects of discharges from a single rig into open water areas of the Gulf of Mexico, and discussion of factors that might produce different fate and effects in enclosed areas such as bays and estuaries. The simulation model was composed of four connected submodels. A Discharge/Fate submodel dealt with the discharge characteristics of the rig and the subsequent fate of discharged material. Three effects submodels then calculated biological responses at distances away from the rig for the water column, soft bottom benthos (assuming the rig was located over a soft bottom environment), and hard bottom benthos (assuming the rig was located over a hard bottom environment). The model focused on direct linkages between the discharge and various organisms rather than on how the marine ecosystem itself is interconnected. Behavior of the simulation model indicated relatively localized effects of drilling muds and cuttings discharged from a single platform into open water areas. Water column fate and effects were dominated by rapid dilution. Effects from deposition of spent mud and cuttings were spatially limited with relatively rapid recovery, especially in soft bottom benthic communities which were conceptualized as being adapted to frequent storms. This behavior was generated by the set of assumptions about linkages and functional relationships used to construct the model. Areas of uncertainty included methods for extrapolating 96-hr LC50 so results to exposures of varying lengths and concentrations; recovery rates of benthic communities; responses to various depths and rates of burial; fate and effects of the plume in relationship to stratification layers; and long-term and sub-lethal effects of slightly elevated concentrations of discharged materials. Evaluation of the assumptions of the Soft Bottom Submodel suggest that the assumptions used may have been relatively liberal estimates of resiliency of these communities. Discussion of "closed" water bodies such as bays and estuaries indicated several reasons to expect different and more complex fate and effects behavior in these areas. These factors included different species and communities (such as aquatic macrophytes and oyster beds), more complex circulation and stratification patterns, and potentially more active resuspension processes. Much of the possible difference in behavior in these areas centers around the extent to which they are “closed” or in the relative residence times of water and sediments in these areas as they determine the long-term dispersion of discharged material. Despite the complexity and variability of these areas, a large body of knowledge (such as that concerning fate and physical effects of dredge spoil) that could be effectively employed in analysis of potential fate and physical effects in enclosed areas was identified.

Report↗

USGS2017

P- and S-wave velocity models incorporating the Cascadia subduction zone for 3D earthquake ground motion simulations, Version 1.6—Update for Open-File Report 2007–1348

In support of earthquake hazard studies and ground motion simulations in the Pacific Northwest, three-dimensional P- and S-wave velocity ( V P and V S , respectively) models incorporating the Cascadia subduction zone were previously developed for the region encompassed from about 40.2°N. to 50°N. latitude, and from about 122°W. to 129°W. longitude. This report describes updates to the Cascadia velocity property volumes of model version 1.3 (V1.3), herein called model version 1.6 (V1.6). As in model V1.3, the updated V1.6 model volume includes depths from 0 kilometers (mean sea level) to 60 kilometers, and it is intended to be a reference for researchers who have used, or are planning to use, this model in their Earth science investigations. To this end, it is intended that the V P and V S property volumes of model V1.6 will be considered a template for a community velocity model of the Cascadia region as additional results become available. With the recent and ongoing development of the National Crustal Model, we envision any future versions of this model will be directly integrated with that effort.

Oregon, Vancouver, Washington↗

USGS2011

Regional groundwater-flow model of the Redwall-Muav, Coconino, and alluvial basin aquifer systems of northern and central Arizona

A numerical flow model (MODFLOW) of the groundwater flow system in the primary aquifers in northern Arizona was developed to simulate interactions between the aquifers, perennial streams, and springs for predevelopment and transient conditions during 1910 through 2005. Simulated aquifers include the Redwall-Muav, Coconino, and basin-fill aquifers. Perennial stream reaches and springs that derive base flow from the aquifers were simulated, including the Colorado River, Little Colorado River, Salt River, Verde River, and perennial reaches of tributary streams. Simulated major springs include Blue Spring, Del Rio Springs, Havasu Springs, Verde River headwater springs, several springs that discharge adjacent to major Verde River tributaries, and many springs that discharge to the Colorado River. Estimates of aquifer hydraulic properties and groundwater budgets were developed from published reports and groundwater-flow models. Spatial extents of aquifers and confining units were developed from geologic data, geophysical models, a groundwater-flow model for the Prescott Active Management Area, drill logs, geologic logs, and geophysical logs. Spatial and temporal distributions of natural recharge were developed by using a water-balance model that estimates recharge from direct infiltration. Additional natural recharge from ephemeral channel infiltration was simulated in alluvial basins. Recharge at wastewater treatment facilities and incidental recharge at agricultural fields and golf courses were also simulated. Estimates of predevelopment rates of groundwater discharge to streams, springs, and evapotranspiration by phreatophytes were derived from previous reports and on the basis of streamflow records at gages. Annual estimates of groundwater withdrawals for agriculture, municipal, industrial, and domestic uses were developed from several sources, including reported withdrawals for nonexempt wells, estimated crop requirements for agricultural wells, and estimated per capita water use for exempt wells. Accuracy of the simulated groundwater-flow system was evaluated by using observational control from water levels in wells, estimates of base flow from streamflow records, and estimates of spring discharge. Major results from the simulations include the importance of variations in recharge rates throughout the study area and recharge along ephemeral and losing stream reaches in alluvial basins. Insights about the groundwater-flow systems in individual basins include the hydrologic influence of geologic structures in some areas and that stream-aquifer interactions along the lower part of the Little Colorado River are an effective control on water level distributions throughout the Little Colorado River Plateau basin. Better information on several aspects of the groundwater flow system are needed to reduce uncertainty of the simulated system. Many areas lack documentation of the response of the groundwater system to changes in withdrawals and recharge. Data needed to define groundwater flow between vertically adjacent water-bearing units is lacking in many areas. Distributions of recharge along losing stream reaches are poorly defined. Extents of aquifers and alluvial lithologies are poorly defined in parts of the Big Chino and Verde Valley sub-basins. Aquifer storage properties are poorly defined throughout most of the study area. Little data exist to define the hydrologic importance of geologic structures such as faults and fractures. Discharge of regional groundwater flow to the Verde River is difficult to identify in the Verde Valley sub-basin because of unknown contributions from deep percolation of excess surface water irrigation.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2016

Model description and evaluation of the mark-recapture survival model used to parameterize the 2012 status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris )

This report provides supporting details and evidence for the rationale, validity and efficacy of a new mark-recapture model, the Barker Robust Design, to estimate regional manatee survival rates used to parameterize several components of the 2012 version of the Manatee Core Biological Model (CBM) and Threats Analysis (TA). The CBM and TA provide scientific analyses on population viability of the Florida manatee subspecies ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) for U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s 5-year reviews of the status of the species as listed under the Endangered Species Act. The model evaluation is presented in a standardized reporting framework, modified from the TRACE (TRAnsparent and Comprehensive model Evaluation) protocol first introduced for environmental threat analyses. We identify this new protocol as TRACE-MANATEE SURVIVAL and this model evaluation specifically as TRACE-MANATEE SURVIVAL, Barker RD version 1. The longer-term objectives of the manatee standard reporting format are to (1) communicate to resource managers consistent evaluation information over sequential modeling efforts; (2) build understanding and expertise on the structure and function of the models; (3) document changes in model structures and applications in response to evolving management objectives, new biological and ecological knowledge, and new statistical advances; and (4) provide greater transparency for management and research review.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2021

Joint species distribution models of Everglades wading birds to inform restoration planning

Restoration of the Florida Everglades, a substantial wetland ecosystem within the United States, is one of the largest ongoing restoration projects in the world. Decision-makers and managers within the Everglades ecosystem rely on ecological models forecasting indicator wildlife response to changes in the management of water flows within the system. One such indicator of ecosystem health, the presence of wading bird communities on the landscape, is currently assessed using three species distribution models that assume perfect detection and report output on different scales that are challenging to compare against one another. We sought to use current advancements in species distribution modeling to improve models of Everglades wading bird distribution. Using a joint species distribution model that accounted for imperfect detection, we modeled the presence of nine species of wading bird simultaneously in response to annual hydrologic conditions and landscape characteristics within the Everglades system. Our resulting model improved upon the previous model in three key ways: 1) the model predicts probability of occupancy for the nine species on a scale of 0–1, making the output more intuitive and easily comparable for managers and decision-makers that must consider the responses of several species simultaneously; 2) through joint species modeling, we were able to consider rarer species within the modeling that otherwise are detected in too few numbers to fit as individual models; and 3) the model explicitly allows detection probability of species to be less than 1 which can reduce bias in the site occupancy estimates. These improvements are essential as Everglades restoration continues and managers require models that consider the impacts of water management on key indicator wildlife such as the wading bird community.

Florida↗

USGS2015

Development of conceptual ecological models linking management of the Missouri River to pallid sturgeon population dynamics

This report documents the process of developing and refining conceptual ecological models (CEMs) for linking river management to pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) population dynamics in the Missouri River. The refined CEMs are being used in the Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis to organize, document, and formalize an understanding of pallid sturgeon population responses to past and future management alternatives. The general form of the CEMs, represented by a population-level model and component life-stage models, was determined in workshops held in the summer of 2013. Subsequently, the Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis team designed a general hierarchical structure for the component models, refined the graphical structure, and reconciled variation among the components and between models developed for the upper river (Upper Missouri & Yellowstone Rivers) and the lower river (Missouri River downstream from Gavins Point Dam). Importance scores attributed to the relations between primary biotic characteristics and survival were used to define a candidate set of working dominant hypotheses about pallid sturgeon population dynamics. These CEMs are intended to guide research and adaptive-management actions to benefit pallid sturgeon populations in the Missouri River.

Missouri River, Yellowstone River↗

USGS2002

Distinguishing sediment waves from slope failure deposits: Field examples, including the 'humboldt slide', and modelling results

Migrating sediment waves have been reported in a variety of marine settings, including submarine levee-fan systems, floors of fjords, and other basin or continental slope environments. Examination of such wave fields reveals nine diagnostic characteristics. When these characteristics are applied to several features previously attributed to submarine landslide deformation, they suggest that the features should most likely be reinterpreted as migrating sediment-wave fields. Sites that have been reinterpreted include the 'Humboldt slide' on the Eel River margin in northern California, the continental slope in the Gulf of Cadiz, the continental shelf off the Malaspina Glacier in the Gulf of Alaska, and the Adriatic shelf. A reassessment of all four features strongly suggests that numerous turbidity currents, separated by intervals of ambient hemipelagic sedimentation, deposited the wave fields over thousands of years. A numerical model of hyperpycnal discharge from the Eel River, for example, shows that under certain alongshore-current conditions, such events can produce turbidity currents that flow across the 'Humboldt slide', serving as the mechanism for the development of migrating sediment waves. Numerical experiments also demonstrate that where a series of turbidity currents flows across a rough seafloor (i.e. numerical steps), sediment waves can form and migrate upslope. Hemipelagic sedimentation between turbidity current events further facilitates the upslope migration of the sediment waves. Physical modelling of turbidity currents also confirms the formation and migration of seafloor bedforms. The morphologies of sediment waves generated both numerically and physically in the laboratory bear a strong resemblance to those observed in the field, including those that were previously described as submarine landslides.

Marine Geology↗

USGS2017

Assessing models of arsenic occurrence in drinking water from bedrock aquifers in New Hampshire

Three existing multivariate logistic regression models were assessed using new data to evaluate the capacity of the models to correctly predict the probability of groundwater arsenic concentrations exceeding the threshold values of 1, 5, and 10 micrograms per liter (µg/L) in New Hampshire, USA. A recently released testing dataset includes arsenic concentrations from groundwater samples collected in 2004–2005 from a mix of 367 public-supply and private domestic wells. The use of this dataset to test three existing logistic regression models demonstrated enhanced overall predictive accuracy for the 5 and 10 μg/L models. Overall accuracies of 54.8, 76.3, and 86.4 percent were reported for the 1, 5, and 10 μg/L models, respectively. The state was divided by counties into northwest and southeast regions. Regional differences in accuracy were identified; models had an average accuracy of 83.1 percent for the counties in the northwest and 63.7 percent in the southeast. This is most likely due to high model specificity in the northwest and regional differences in arsenic occurrence. Though these models have limitations, they allow for arsenic hazard assessment across the region. The introduction of well-type (public or private), well depth, and casing length as explanatory variables may be appropriate measures to improve model performance. Our findings indicate that the original models generalize to the testing dataset, and should continue to serve as an important vehicle of preventative public health that may be applied to other groundwater contaminants in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire↗

USGS2002

Visualization of Flow Alternatives, Lower Missouri River

Background The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE) 'Missouri River Master Water Control Manual' (Master Manual) review has resulted in consideration of many flow alternatives for managing the water in the river (COE, 2001; 1998a). The purpose of this report is to present flow-management alternative model results in a way that can be easily visualized and understood. This report was updated in October 2001 to focus on the specific flow-management alternatives presented by the COE in the 'Master Manual Revised Draft Environmental Impact Statement' (RDEIS; COE, 2001). The original version (February 2000) is available by clicking here. The COE, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), Missouri River states, and Missouri River basin tribes have been participating in discussions concerning water management of the Missouri River mainstem reservoir system (MRMRS), the Missouri River Bank Stabilization and Navigation Project, and the Kansas River reservoir system since 1986. These discussions include general input to the revision of the Master Manual as well as formal consultation under Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act. In 2000, the FWS issued a Biological Opinion that prescribed changes to reservoir management on the Missouri River that were believed to be necessary to preclude jeopardy to three endangered species, the pallid sturgeon, piping plover, and interior least tern (USFWS, 2000). The combined Missouri River system is large and complex, including many reservoirs, control structures, and free-flowing reaches extending over a broad region. The ability to assess future impacts of altered management scenarios necessarily involves complex, computational models that attempt to integrate physical, chemical, biological, and economic effects. Graphical visualization of the model output is intended to improve understanding of the differences among flow-management alternatives.

Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebrask↗

USGS2006

Landscape conditions predisposing grizzly bears to conflicts on private agricultural lands in the western USA

We used multiple logistic regression to model how different landscape conditions contributed to the probability of human-grizzly bear conflicts on private agricultural ranch lands. We used locations of livestock pastures, traditional livestock carcass disposal areas (boneyards), beehives, and wetland-riparian associated vegetation to model the locations of 178 reported human-grizzly bear conflicts along the Rocky Mountain East Front, Montana, USA during 1986-2001. We surveyed 61 livestock producers in the upper Teton watershed of north-central Montana, to collect spatial and temporal data on livestock pastures, boneyards, and beehives for the same period, accounting for changes in livestock and boneyard management and beehive location and protection, for each season. We used 2032 random points to represent the null hypothesis of random location relative to potential explanatory landscape features, and used Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC/AICC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistics for model selection. We used a resulting "best" model to map contours of predicted probabilities of conflict, and used this map for verification with an independent dataset of conflicts to provide additional insights regarding the nature of conflicts. The presence of riparian vegetation and distances to spring, summer, and fall sheep or cattle pastures, calving and sheep lambing areas, unmanaged boneyards, and fenced and unfenced beehives were all associated with the likelihood of human-grizzly bear conflicts. Our model suggests that collections of attractants concentrated in high quality bear habitat largely explain broad patterns of human-grizzly bear conflicts on private agricultural land in our study area. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS1996

Simulation analysis of the ground-water flow system in the Portland Basin, Oregon and Washington

This report presents results derived from a numerical model of the ground-water flow system in the Portland Basin, Oregon and Washington, that was used to test and refine the conceptual understanding of the flow system, estimate the effects of past and future human-caused changes to ground-water recharge and discharge on ground-water levels and streamflow, and determine priorities for ground-water monitoring and data collection that would facilitate improvements in the utility and accuracy of the model.

Water Supply Paper↗