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USGS2021

Investigation of scale-dependent groundwater/surface-water exchange in rivers by gradient self-potential logging: Numerical modeling and field experiments

Exchanges of groundwater and surface-water are fundamental to a wide range of water-supply and water-quality management issues but challenging to map beyond the reach scale. Waterborne gradient self-potential (SP) measurements are directly sensitive to water flow through riverbed sediments and can be used to infer exchange locations, direction (gain versus loss), scale, and relative changes, but to date applications to river corridor hydrology are limited. Numerical modeling and field experiments were therefore performed herein, each emphasizing waterborne gradient SP logging for identifying and locating focused vertical groundwater discharge (surface-water gain) and recharge (surface-water loss) in a river. Two and three-dimensional numerical models were constructed to simulate the polarities, appearances, and peak amplitudes of streaming-potential and electric-field anomalies on a riverbed and in the surface-water that were attributable to steady-state vertical fluxes of groundwater through high-permeability conduits in the riverbed. Effects of varied hydraulic length-scale of exchange and surface-water depth were tested through numerical modeling. Modeling results aided in data acquisition and interpretation for three repeated field experiments performed along a 1.5–2.0 km reach of the Quashnet River in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, where focused, meter-scale groundwater discharges occur at discrete locations within otherwise ubiquitous and more diffuse groundwater upwelling conditions. Strong gradient SP anomalies were repeatedly measured in the Quashnet River at previously confirmed locations of focused groundwater discharge, showing the efficacy of waterborne gradient SP logging in identifying and characterizing groundwater/surface water exchange dynamics at multiple river network scales.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2018

Prediction uncertainty and data worth assessment for groundwater transport times in an agricultural catchment

Uncertainties about the age of base-flow discharge can have serious implications for the management of degraded environmental systems where subsurface pathways, and the ongoing release of pollutants that accumulated in the subsurface during past decades, dominate the water quality signal. Numerical groundwater models may be used to estimate groundwater return times and base-flow ages and thus predict the time required for stakeholders to see the results of improved agricultural management practices. However, the uncertainty inherent in the relationship between (i) the observations of atmospherically-derived tracers that are required to calibrate such models and (ii) the predictions of system age that the observations inform have not been investigated. For example, few if any studies have assessed the uncertainty of numerically-simulated system ages or evaluated the uncertainty reductions that may result from the expense of collecting additional subsurface tracer data. In this study we combine numerical flow and transport modeling of atmospherically-derived tracers with prediction uncertainty methods to accomplish four objectives. First, we show the relative importance of head, discharge, and tracer information for characterizing response times in a uniquely data rich catchment that includes 266 age-tracer measurements (SF 6 , CFCs, and 3 H) in addition to long term monitoring of water levels and stream discharge. Second, we calculate uncertainty intervals for model-simulated base-flow ages using both linear and non-linear methods, and find that the prediction sensitivity vector used by linear first-order second-moment methods results in much larger uncertainties than non-linear Monte Carlo methods operating on the same parameter uncertainty. Third, by combining prediction uncertainty analysis with multiple models of the system, we show that data-worth calculations and monitoring network design are sensitive to variations in the amount of water leaving the system via stream discharge and irrigation withdrawals. Finally, we demonstrate a novel model-averaged computation of potential data worth that can account for these uncertainties in model structure.

Maryland↗

USGS2012

Evaluation of Bayesian estimation of a hidden continuous-time Markov chain model with application to threshold violation in water-quality indicators

Natural resource managers require information concerning the frequency, duration, and long-term probability of occurrence of water-quality indicator (WQI) violations of defined thresholds. The timing of these threshold crossings often is hidden from the observer, who is restricted to relatively infrequent observations. Here, a model for the hidden process is linked with a model for the observations, and the parameters describing duration, return period, and long-term probability of occurrence are estimated using Bayesian methods. A simulation experiment is performed to evaluate the approach under scenarios based on the equivalent of a total monitoring period of 5-30 years and an observation frequency of 1-50 observations per year. Given constant threshold crossing rate, accuracy and precision of parameter estimates increased with longer total monitoring period and more-frequent observations. Given fixed monitoring period and observation frequency, accuracy and precision of parameter estimates increased with longer times between threshold crossings. For most cases where the long-term probability of being in violation is greater than 0.10, it was determined that at least 600 observations are needed to achieve precise estimates. An application of the approach is presented using 22 years of quasi-weekly observations of acid-neutralizing capacity from Deep Run, a stream in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia. The time series also was sub-sampled to simulate monthly and semi-monthly sampling protocols. Estimates of the long-term probability of violation were unbiased despite sampling frequency; however, the expected duration and return period were over-estimated using the sub-sampled time series with respect to the full quasi-weekly time series.

Journal of Environmental Informatics↗

USGS2016

Effects of haying on breeding birds in CRP grasslands

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is a voluntary program that is available to agricultural producers to help protect environmentally sensitive or highly erodible land. Management disturbances of CRP grasslands generally are not allowed unless authorized to provide relief to livestock producers during severe drought or a similar natural disaster (i.e., emergency haying and grazing) or to improve the quality and performance of the CRP cover (i.e., managed haying and grazing). Although CRP grasslands may not be hayed or grazed during the primary bird-nesting season, these disturbances may have short-term (1 yr after disturbance) and long-term (≥2 yr after disturbance) effects on grassland bird populations. We assessed the effects of haying on 20 grassland bird species in 483 CRP grasslands in 9 counties of 4 states in the northern Great Plains, USA between 1993 and 2008. We compared breeding bird densities (as determined by total-area counts) in idle and hayed fields to evaluate changes 1, 2, 3, and 4 years after haying. Haying of CRP grasslands had either positive or negative effects on grassland birds, depending on the species, the county, and the number of years after the initial disturbance. Some species (e.g., horned lark [ Eremophila alpestris ], bobolink [ Dolichonyx oryzivorus ]) responded positively after haying, and others (e.g., song sparrow [ Melospiza melodia ]) responded negatively. The responses of some species changed direction as the fields recovered from haying. For example, densities for common yellowthroat ( Geothlypis trichas ), sedge wren ( Cistothorus platensis ), and clay-colored sparrow ( Spizella pallida ) declined the first year after haying but increased in the subsequent 3 years. Ten species showed treatment × county interactions, indicating that the effects of haying varied geographically. This long-term evaluation on the effects of haying on breeding birds provides important information on the strength and direction of changes in bird populations following a disturbance. Results from this study can help guide management of CRP and other grasslands and inform future agricultural programs that address biomass energy production. © 2016 This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2023

Hypoxia and anoxia tolerance in diploid and triploid eastern oysters at high temperature

Increasing reliance on the use of triploid oysters to support aquaculture production relies on their generally superior growth rate and meat quality over that of diploid oysters. Reports of elevated triploid mortality have generated questions about potential trade-offs between growth and tolerance to environmental stressors. These questions are particularly relevant as climate change, coastal activities, and river management impact water salinity, temperature, nutrients, pH, and oxygen levels within key estuarine oyster growing areas. In particular, the co-occurrence of warm water temperatures and low dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) events are increasingly reported in estuaries, with potentially lethal impacts on sessile, oyster resources. To investigate potential differences in DO tolerance, diploid and triploid market-sized or seed oysters were exposed to continuous normoxia (DO > 5.0 mg L –1 ), hypoxia (DO < 2.0 mg L –1 ), and anoxia (DO < 0.5 mg L –1 ) at 28°C and their mortalities were monitored. The hemolymph of the market-sized oysters was collected to measure cellular and biochemical changes in response to hypoxia and anoxia, whereas their valve movements were also measured. In general, about half of market-sized oysters died within about 1 wk under anoxia (LT 50 : 5.7–8.9 days) and within about 2 wk under hypoxia (LT 50 : 11.9–19.4 days) with diploid oysters tending to die faster than triploid oysters. Seed oysters took longer to die than market-sized oysters under both anoxia (LT 50 : 9.5–12.1 days) and hypoxia (LT 50 : 21.8–25.0 days) with diploid oysters (LT 50 : 9.5–11.8 days) dying slightly faster than triploid oysters (LT 50 : 11.8–12.1 days) under anoxia. Hemolymph pH decreased and plasma calcium and glutathione concentrations increased with decreasing DO, with values under anoxia being different than those under normoxia. Hemocyte density was also lower under anoxia than under either normoxia or hypoxia. Overall, few differences in physiological responses to hypoxia and anoxia were found between diploid and triploid oysters suggesting that ploidy (2N versus 3N) had limited effect on the tolerance and response of eastern oysters to low DO.

Journal of Shellfish Research↗

USGS2015

Blood lead exposure concentrations in mottled ducks ( Anas fulvigula ) on the upper Texas coast

The mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) is a non-migratory waterfowl species dependent upon coastal marsh systems, including those on the Texas Chenier Plain National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) Complex, and considered a regional indicator species of marsh habitat quality. Research from the early 1970s, 1990s, and early-2000s indicated that mottled ducks continued to exhibit elevated wing-bone lead (Pb) concentrations, decades after implementation of non-toxic shot regulations. However, wing-bone concentrations reflect lifetime accumulation of Pb, whereas blood Pb concentrations reflect more recent exposure. To identify current potentially relevant temporal windows of Pb exposure, we collected 260 blood samples from mottled ducks during summer (n=124) and winter (n=136) from 2010–2012 on the Texas Chenier Plain NWR Complex. We quantified baseline blood Pb concentrations for all ages of mottled ducks, and hypothesized that blood lead concentrations would remain elevated above background levels (200 µg L–1) despite the 1983 and 1991 lead shot bans. Blood Pb concentrations ranged from below detection limits to >12,000 µg L–1, where >200 µg L–1 was associated with exposure levels above background concentrations. Male mottled ducks had the greatest blood Pb concentrations (30 times greater than females) with concentrations greater during winter than summer. Likewise, the proportion of exposed (>200 µg L–1) females increased from 14%–47% from summer to winter, respectively. Regardless of sex, adult mottled duck blood Pb concentrations were five times greater than juveniles, particularly during winter. We identified five plausible models that influenced blood Pb levels where year, site, and interactions among age*sex*season and between age*season were included in the top-ranked models. Frequency of exposure was greatest during winter, increasing from 12% in summer to 55% in winter, indicating that a temporal exposure window to environmental Pb exists between nesting and hunting seasons. Blood Pb concentrations remain elevated in mottled ducks despite Pb shot bans enacted >25 years prior to this study. If Pb levels in mottled ducks becomes a conservation concern, regional monitoring of blood Pb concentrations would be appropriate with a focus upon elucidating potential reasons for the variation among age and sex groups. Finally, identifying potentially available sources of environmental Pb may be key to minimizing this apparently persistent threat to mottled ducks on the upper Texas coast.

Journal of the Southeastern Association of Fish an↗

USGS2026

Stream macroinvertebrate responses vary with region, land use and management practice type

Intensive land use alters hydrology and water quality, threatening freshwater benthic macroinvertebrates. Over 200,000 management practices (MPs) have been implemented across the Chesapeake Bay watershed since the 1980s, yet biological responses remain inconsistent. We synthesized 29 studies from 4 physiographic provinces covering 8 MP categories and evaluated macroinvertebrate responses along MP gradients using structural (richness), functional (biomass), tolerance, and biotic metrics. We hypothesized that MPs enhancing habitat complexity or restoring flow regimes would benefit taxa sensitive to sediment, hydrologic instability and organic pollution, with outcomes shaped by regional context, land use, and chosen metrics. Four themes emerged. (i) Agricultural Riparian Forest Buffers (RFBs) consistently improved sensitive metrics related to abundance, biomass and richness. (ii) Urban streams with Stream Habitat Improvement and Management (SHIM) showed improved richness and diversity, but biomass and tolerance metrics declined or remained neutral, indicating unresolved hydrologic and pollutant stress. (iii) Structural and functional responses diverged: effect sizes for total and feeding-group biomasses (functional metrics) were negative, whereas genus-level Ephemeroptera-Plecoptera-Trichoptera (EPT) richness (structural metric) was positive, indicating that structural shifts may not track underlying production changes. (iv) Physiographic comparisons showed counterintuitive patterns, as RFBs improved EPT richness in Piedmont streams but had negative effects in the Coastal Plain. Evaluating MP effectiveness requires distinguishing a no-MP pathway (stressors → instream conditions → assemblages → responses) from an MP-mediated pathway (practice regime → modified stressors → instream conditions → assemblages → responses), underscoring the need for region-specific, multi-metric monitoring and improved understanding of MP density thresholds and recovery lags.

eastern contiguous United States↗

USGS2016

Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler after successful recovery

Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence the population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii (Baird 1852) is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and Near Threatened under the IUCN Red List. This conservation-reliant species is being considered for U.S. federal delisting because the species has surpassed the designated 1000 breeding pairs recovery threshold since 2001. To help inform the delisting decision and long-term management efforts, we developed a population simulation model for the Kirtland's warbler that incorporated both breeding and wintering grounds habitat dynamics, and projected population viability based on current environmental conditions and potential future management scenarios. Future management scenarios included the continuation of current management conditions, reduced productivity and carrying capacity due to the changes in habitat suitability from the creation of experimental jack pine Pinus banksiana (Lamb.) plantations, and reduced productivity from alteration of the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater (Boddaert 1783) removal programme. Linking wintering grounds precipitation to productivity improved the accuracy of the model for replicating past observed population dynamics. Our future simulations indicate that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under two potential future management scenarios: (i) continuation of current management practices and (ii) spatially restricting cowbird removal to the core breeding area, assuming that cowbirds reduce productivity in the remaining patches by ≤41%. The additional future management scenarios we assessed resulted in population declines. Synthesis and applications . Our study indicates that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under current management conditions and that the jack pine plantation and cowbird removal programmes continue to be necessary for the long-term persistence of the species. This study represents one of the first attempts to incorporate full annual cycle dynamics into a population viability analysis for a migratory bird, and our results indicate that incorporating wintering grounds dynamics improved the model performance.

Michigan↗

USGS2025

Component identification of solid biomass fuels using reflected light microscopy: Interlaboratory study 2

As nations transition toward sustainable energy systems , biomass has become a vital component of global energy portfolios. Derived from organic materials such as wood, agricultural residues, forestry byproducts, and organic waste, biomass is a renewable energy source with significant environmental and economic benefits. Responsible biomass energy production can improve waste management, reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, and mitigate environmental pollution. However, as the diversity of biomass-derived fuels increases, robust quality assessment methods are essential to ensure their efficiency, safety, and minimal environmental impact. Reflected light microscopy (RLM) is one such technique with the potential to complement conventional physico-chemical analyses by enabling a rapid identification of material constituents and impurities. To refine this methodology and evaluate the reproducibility of solid biomass component identification using RLM, an interlaboratory study (ILS) was conducted. The study involved the recognition of 58 components across 45 photomicrographs, with the participation of 65 scientists and students from 25 countries. The participants faced high difficulty identifying some of the marked components, and as a result, the percentage of correct answers ranged from 19.0 % to 98.3 %, with an average correct identification rate of 62.7 %. The most challenging aspects of the identification process included distinguishing between woody and non-woody (agro) biomass, accurately identifying petroleum-derived materials, and differentiating agro biomass from inorganic matter. The results suggest that while RLM is an important tool for characterizing solid biomass, further development of methodology guidelines and training are necessary to enhance its effectiveness. Future research should prioritize preparing detailed, image-rich, microscopic morphological descriptions of biomass fuel components, which could improve the accuracy and reliability of using RLM in biomass fuel characterization.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

USGS1995

Distribution of phytobenthos in the Yakima River basin, Washington, in relation to geology, land use and other environmental factors

Benthic-algal distributions in the Yakima River, Washington, basin were, examined in relation to geology, land use, water chemistry, and stream habitat using indicator-species classification ( TWINSPAN ) and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). Algal assemblages identified by TWINSPAN were each associated with a narrow range of water-quality conditions. In the Cascade geologic province, where timber harvest and grazing are the dominant land uses, differences in community structure (CCA site scores) and concentrations of major ions (Ca and Mg) and nutrients (solute P, SiO 2 and inorganic N) varied with dominant rock type of the basin. In agricultural areas of the Columbia Plateau province, differences in phytobenthos structure were based primarily on the degree of enrichment of dissolved solids, inorganic N, and solute P from irrigation-return flows and subsurface drainage. Habitat characteristics strongly correlated with community structure included reach altitude, turbidity, substratum embeddedness (Columbia Plateau), large woody-debris density (Cascade Range), and composition and density of the riparian vegetation. Algal biomass (AFDM) correlated with composition and density of the riparian vegetation but not with measured chemical-constituent concentrations. Nitrogen limitation in streams of the Cascade Range favored nitrogen-fixing blue-green algae and diatoms with endosymbiotic blue-greens, whereas nitrogen heterotrophs were abundant in agricultural areas of the Columbia Plateau.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2023

Species and physiographic factors drive Indian cucumber root and Canada mayflower plant chemistry: Implications for white-tailed deer forage quality

Nutrition is fundamental to white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) management given its relationship to habitat carrying capacity and population productivity. Ecological Sites (ESs) are a United States federal landscape management unit of specific land potential due to unique soils, topography, climate, parent material, and perhaps deer forage nutritional value. We present results of a study that extends the use of ESs to inform white-tailed deer management by evaluating indicator plant chemistry in two spring forb species, Indian cucumber root ( Medeola virginiana) and Canada mayflower ( Maianthemum canadense ), across the northcentral Appalachians. We sampled spring forbs and underlying soils across two ESs: Dry, upland, oak–maple–hemlock hardwood forest (OMH) and Deep soil, high slope, northern hardwood forests (NHF). Plant elemental content, soil pH, and site aspect, slope and elevation were measured. Our results show that forb chemistry differs between species and within a species geographically. Indian cucumber root, as compared to Canada mayflower, has significantly higher Mg, Na, Cu, Fe, and Zn, and lower Mn. Canada mayflower in the NHF ES, versus OMH ES, was found to have significantly higher K, Mn, and B. Indian cucumber root in the NHF ES, versus the OMH ES, was found to have significantly higher Mg, Al, Fe, and Ca:P ratio but lower K. Linear discriminant analysis shows that plant tissue Mn was the best discriminator between species, and between ESs, Canada mayflower plant tissue Mn and Indian cucumber plant tissue P, K, Ca, Mg and Mn were best discriminators. Given that nutrition determines habitat carrying capacity, differences in forage nutrition between ESs may have different potentials to support deer. Forage nutrition is an important aspect of deer habitat conditions and carrying capacity, thus ESs are likely to support deer populations with different growth potential, which means that even if the same plant species occur in different ESs their nutritional value to deer may differ.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2024

Body mass changes of dabbling and diving ducks wintering in California

Bird body mass is often used as an index of body condition and fluctuates throughout the year in response to environmental conditions and avian life-history events. We examined the body mass of 59,572 ducks representing 13 species (7 dabbling duck species and 6 diving duck species) harvested within the 3 regions of the Central Valley in California, USA (Sacramento Valley, Suisun Marsh, San Joaquin Valley). Data collection occurred in winter during 5 hunting seasons (2014–2015, 2015–2016, 2017–2018, 2018–2019, 2019–2020). For all species, age, and sex classes, the body mass of dabbling ducks varied temporally and was lowest at the end of the hunting season in late January, declining from the beginning of the hunting season in mid-October (northern pintail [ Anas acuta ]: −11.4% to −20.4%; northern shoveler [ Spatula clypeata ]: −3.5% to −17.3%; cinnamon teal [ Anas cyanoptera ]: −5.0% to −17.1%; American wigeon [ Mareca americana ]: −6.9% to −12.2%; American green-winged teal [ Anas carolinensis ]: −5.9% to −11.9%; mallard [ Anas platyrhynchos ]: −1.8% to −9.6%; gadwall [ Mareca strepera ]: −2.2% to −8.4%). As expected, adults (after hatch-year) were heavier than immature (hatch-year) birds (within males: 0.6–8.6%; within females: 0.1–6.6%) and males were heavier than females (within adults: 3.1–38.6%; within immatures: 5.4–33.5%) at the end of the hunting season in all species. Within dabbling duck species, body masses did not differ among regions at the beginning of the hunting season but were heavier in the Sacramento Valley (0.5–14.4%) than other areas by the end of the hunting season. In contrast, body masses of diving ducks did not vary substantially during the hunting season or among regions. Diving ducks demonstrated inconsistent changes in mass from the beginning to the end of the season (lesser scaup [ Aythya affinis ]: 3.4% to 12.3%; canvasback [ Aythya valisineria ]: 5.1% to 6.1%; bufflehead [ Bucephala albeola ]: −3.2% to 1.6%; ring-necked duck [ Aythya collaris ]: −4.9% to 2.6%; common goldeneye [ Bucephala clangula ]: −3.2% to −2.4%; ruddy duck [ Oxyura jamaicensis ]: −16.5% to 5.5%). The substantial temporal and spatial differences in dabbling duck body masses suggest that habitat quality (as measured by caloric value of the available food) or quantity may decline during winter and varies regionally within California's Central Valley.

California↗

USGS2002

Establishing aquatic restoration priorities using a watershed approach

Since the passage of the Clean Water Act in 1972, the United States has made great strides to reduce the threats to its rivers, lakes, and wetlands from pollution. However, despite our obvious successes, nearly half of the nation’s surface water resources remain incapable of supporting basic aquatic values or maintaining water quality adequate for recreational swimming. The Clean Water Act established a significant federal presence in water quality regulation by controlling point and non-point sources of pollution. Point-sources of pollution were the major emphasis of the Act, but Section 208 specifically addressed non-point sources of pollution and designated silviculture and livestock grazing as sources of non-point pollution. Non-point source pollutants include runoff from agriculture, municipalities, timber harvesting, mining, and livestock grazing. Non-point source pollution now accounts for more than half of the United States water quality impairments. To successfully improve water quality, restoration practitioners must start with an understanding of what ecosystem processes are operating in the watershed and how they have been affected by outside variables. A watershed-based analysis template developed in the Pacific Northwest can be a valuable aid in developing that level of understanding. The watershed analysis technique identifies four ecosystem scales useful to identify stream restoration priorities: region, basin, watershed, and site. The watershed analysis technique is based on a set of technically rigorous and defensible procedures designed to provide information on what processes are active at the watershed scale, how those processes are distributed in time and space. They help describe what the current upland and riparian conditions of the watershed are and how these conditions in turn influence aquatic habitat and other beneficial uses. The analysis is organized as a set of six steps that direct an interdisciplinary team of specialists to examine the biotic and abiotic processes influencing aquatic habitat and species abundance. This process helps develop an understanding of the watershed within the context of the larger ecosystem. The understanding gained can then be used to identify and prioritize aquatic restoration activities at the appropriate temporal and spatial scale. The watershed approach prevents relying solely on site-level information, a common problem with historic restoration efforts. When the watershed analysis process was used in the Whitefish Mountains of northwest Montana, natural resource professionals were able to determine the dominant habitat forming processes important for native fishes and use that information to prioritize, plan, and implement the appropriate restoration activities at the watershed scale. Despite considerable investments of time and resources needed to complete an analysis at the watershed scale, the results can prevent the misdiagnosis of aquatic problems and help ensure that the objectives of aquatic restoration will be met.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS1985

Management of ground water and evolving hydrogeologic studies in New Jersey : a heavily urbanized and industrialized state in the northeastern United States

New Jersey is the most densely populated and one of the most industrialized states in the United States. An abundance of freshwater and proximity to major northeastern metropolitan centers has facilitated this development. Pumpage of freshwater from all aquifers in the State in 1980 was 730 million gallons per day (2.76 million cubic meters per day). Management and efficient development of the ground-water resources of the State are the responsibility of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. Laws have been enacted and updated by the State legislature to manage water allocation and to control the disposal of hazardous wastes. Present resource management is guided by the New Jersey Water-Supply Master Plan of 1981. Funding for management activities is partially derived from the sale of state-approved bonds. Effective planning and regional management require accurate and up-to-date hydrologic information and analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Geological Survey, is conducting three intensive ground-water studies involving the collection and interpretation of hydrologic data to meet the urgent water-management needs of New Jersey. These studies are part of a long-term cooperative program and are funded through the Water-Supply Bond Act of 1981. They began in 1983 and are scheduled to be completed in 1988. The project areas are situated in the New Jersey part of the Atlantic Coastal Plain in and near Atlantic City, Camden, and South River. They range in size from 400 to 1,200 mil (1,040 to 3,120 km2). The studies are designed to define the geology, hydrology, and geochemistry of the local ground-water systems. The results of these studies will enable the State to address more effectively major problems in these areas such as declining water levels, overpumping, saltwater intrusion, and ground-water contamination resulting from the improper disposal of hazardous wastes. Specific objectives of these studies by the U.S. Geological Survey are to (1) develop an accurate and up-to-date hydrogeologic data base, (2) design and implement a data-collection program and establish a computerized information management system, (3) refine the conceptualization of the ground-water flow system, and (4) define the geochemistry of the aquifer system by conducting a water-quality appraisal. The objectives are accomplished by standard hydrogeologic methods. Information concerning hydrogeologic framework, ground-water levels, water use, hydraulic characteristics, and water quality in the study areas is compiled from all available sources. Additional data needed are collected through well inventories, surface geophysical surveys, water-quality samplings, water-level measurements, and a well-drilling program. Interpretation of the flow system is based on the use of standard analytical techniques and digital flow modeling. Calibrated flow models will provide ground-water managers with a mechanism to develop and test regional water-supply strategies. Definition of the geochemistry of the aquifer system is accomplished through a variety of methods which depend on the problems and available data in the particular study area. The approach includes statistical analysis of water-quality data, reaction-path modeling, and determination of the movement of chemical constituents using analytical and numerical modeling techniques. A combined staff of 25 to 30 professionals and technicians from the New Jersey District office of the U.S. Geological Survey is committed to the three studies. The staff has specialists in geohydrology, numerical modeling, geochemistry, geophysics, and computer science. The findings of these studies will be published in data reports, interpretive reports, instructional manuals and journal articles.

New Jersey↗

USGS2022

Evaluating the effect of expert elicitation techniques on population status assessment in the face of large uncertainty

Population projection models are important tools for conservation and management. They are often used for population status assessments, for threat analyses, and to predict the consequences of conservation actions. Although conservation decisions should be informed by science, critical decisions are often made with very little information to support decision-making. Conversely, postponing decisions until better information is available may reduce the benefit of a conservation decision. When empirical data are limited or lacking, expert elicitation can be used to supplement existing data and inform model parameter estimates. The use of rigorous techniques for expert elicitation that account for uncertainty can improve the quality of the expert elicited values and therefore the accuracy of the projection models. One recurring challenge for summarizing expert elicited values is how to aggregate them. Here, we illustrate a process for population status assessment using a combination of expert elicitation and data from the ecological literature. We discuss the importance of considering various aggregation techniques, and illustrate this process using matrix population models for the wood turtle ( Glyptemys insculpta ) to assist U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service decision-makers with their Species Status Assessment. We compare estimates of population growth using data from the ecological literature and four alternative aggregation techniques for the expert-elicited values. The estimate of population growth rate based on estimates from the literature (λ mean = 0.952, 95% CI: 0.87–1.01) could not be used to unequivocally reject the hypotheses of a rapidly declining population nor the hypothesis of a stable, or even slightly growing population, whereas our results for the expert-elicited estimates supported the hypothesis that the wood turtle population will decline over time. Our results showed that the aggregation techniques used had an impact on model estimates, suggesting that the choice of techniques should be carefully considered. We discuss the benefits and limitations associated with each method and their relevance to the population status assessment. We note a difference in the temporal scope or inference between the literature-based estimates that provided insights about historical changes, whereas the expert-based estimates were forward looking. Therefore, conducting an expert-elicitation in addition to using parameter estimates from the literature improved our understanding of our species of interest.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2026

What is the (real) rate of soil health practice adoption? Making sense of three data sources

Conservation stakeholders looking to quantify the impact of their investments to increase soil health practice adoption over time often face challenges in interpreting practice adoption data due to discrepancies in language and results among data sources. Similarly, efforts to estimate environmental outcomes of practice adoption, such as water quality and greenhouse gas emissions, can vary depending on different practice adoption input data. To help make sense of different adoption data sources, we compared county-level adoption data for winter cover crops (WCC), no-till (NT), and reduced tillage (RT) in three areas of the United States with contrasting climates and production systems: central Illinois (CIL), southern Illinois (SIL), and western New York (WNY). We analyzed data available during 2015 through 2022 from the Operational Tillage Information System (OpTIS, remote sensing), US Census of Agriculture (AgCensus, a farmer survey), and, specifically in Illinois, the Illinois Soil Conservation Transect Survey (Transect, a roadside survey). The magnitude of differences between the datasets depended on the practice and geographic location. For example, OpTIS and AgCensus tillage data were much more similar in Illinois (average difference of less than 4 percentage points) compared to New York (average differences of 20 percentage points). Similarly, there was less variability and smaller differences between OpTIS and AgCensus WCC data in Illinois compared to WNY. AgCensus tended to report lower WCC adoption for Illinois and greater adoption in WNY compared to OpTIS. All data sources agreed that the rate of change in tillage practices is slow (mainly –1% to 1%) and that adoption of WCC is low (assuming linear growth, it could take nearly a century to reach 50% WCC adoption in CIL). Differences among the datasets were attributed to definitional inconsistencies for RT and NT and how WCC data were acquired. For example, the AgCensus asks if a WCC was planted, whereas OpTIS and Transect evaluate the presence of a standing WCC. Data sources also reflect different time periods (calendar years or crop years) and types of cropland assessed (corn [ Zea mays L.], soybean [ Glycine max {L.} Merr.], or all cropland). We propose two recommendations to improve interpretation and consistency: (1) a working group to harmonize definitions and protocols and develop educational materials for data users, and (2) a research effort that integrates different adoption data types and produces publicly available adoption data at HUC-10 and county scales. Such activities could help improve data access and utility for evidence-based conservation decision-making and enhance the accuracy of environmental models that rely on adoption data as input.

Journal of Soil and Water Conservation↗

USGS2017

Riverine discharges to Chesapeake Bay: Analysis of long-term (1927–2014) records and implications for future flows in the Chesapeake Bay basin

The Chesapeake Bay (CB) basin is under a total maximum daily load (TMDL) mandate to reduce nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads to the bay. Identifying shifts in the hydro-climatic regime may help explain observed trends in water quality. To identify potential shifts, hydrologic data (1927–2014) for 27 watersheds in the CB basin were analyzed to determine the relationships among long-term precipitation and stream discharge trends. The amount, frequency, and intensity of precipitation increased from 1910 to 1996 in the eastern U.S., with the observed increases greater in the northeastern U.S. than the southeastern U.S. The CB watershed spans the north-to-south gradient in precipitation increases, and hydrologic differences have been observed in watersheds north relative to watersheds south of the Pennsylvania—Maryland (PA-MD) border. Time series of monthly mean precipitation data specific to each of 27 watersheds were derived from the Precipitation-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) dataset, and monthly mean stream-discharge data were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey streamgage records. All annual precipitation trend slopes in the 18 watersheds north of the PA-MD border were greater than or equal to those of the nine south of that border. The magnitude of the trend slopes for 1927–2014 in both precipitation and discharge decreased in a north-to-south pattern. Distributions of the monthly precipitation and discharge datasets were assembled into percentiles for each year for each watershed. Multivariate correlation of precipitation and discharge within percentiles among the groups of northern and southern watersheds indicated only weak associations. Regional-scale average behaviors of trends in the distribution of precipitation and discharge annual percentiles differed between the northern and southern watersheds. In general, the linkage between precipitation and discharge was weak, with the linkage weaker in the northern watersheds compared to those in the south. On the basis of simple linear regression, 26 of the 27 watersheds are projected to have higher annual mean discharge in 2025, the target date for implementation of the TMDL for the CB basin.

Chesapeake Bay Basin↗

USGS1999

Application of geologic map information to water quality issues in the southern part of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, Maryland and Virginia, eastern United States

Geologic map units contain much information about the mineralogy, chemistry, and physical attributes of the rocks mapped. This paper presents information from regional-scale geologic maps in Maryland and Virginia, which are in the southern part of the Chesapeake Bay watershed in the eastern United States. The geologic map information is discussed and analyzed in relation to water chemistry data from shallow wells and stream reaches in the area. Two environmental problems in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are used as test examples. The problems, high acidity and high nitrate concentrations in streams and rivers, tend to be mitigated by some rock and sediment types and not by others. Carbonate rocks (limestone, dolomite, and carbonate-cemented rocks) have the greatest capacity to neutralize acidic ground water and surface water in contact with them. Rocks and sediments having high carbon or sulfur contents (such as peat and black shale) potentially contribute the most toward denitrification of ground water and surface water in contact with them. Rocks and sediments that are composed mostly of quartz, feldspar, and light-colored clay (rocks such as granite and sandstone, sediments such as sand and gravel) tend not to alter the chemistry of waters that are in contact with them. The testing of relationships between regionally mapped geologic units and water chemistry is in a preliminary stage, and initial results are encouraging.Geologic map units contain much information about the mineralogy, chemistry, and physical attributes of the rocks mapped. This paper presents information from regional-scale geologic maps in Maryland and Virginia, which are in the southern part of the Chesapeake Bay watershed in the eastern United States. The geologic map information is discussed and analyzed in relation to water chemistry data from shallow wells and stream reaches in the area. Two environmental problems in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are used as test examples. The problems, high acidity and high nitrate concentrations in streams and rivers, tend to be mitigated by some rock and sediment types and not by others. Carbonate rocks (limestone, dolomite, and carbonate-cemented rocks) have the greatest capacity to neutralize acidic ground water and surface water in contact with them. Rocks and sediments having high carbon or sulfur contents (such as peat and black shale) potentially contribute the most toward denitrification of ground water and surface water in contact with them. Rocks and sediments that are composed mostly of quartz, feldspar, and light-colored clay (rocks such as granite and sandstone, sediments such as sand and gravel) tend not to alter the chemistry of waters that are in contact with them. The testing of relationships between regionally mapped geologic units and water chemistry is in a preliminary stage, and initial results are encouraging.

Journal of Geochemical Exploration↗