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USGS2022

Examination of the interaction between age-specific predation and chronic disease in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Predators may create healthier prey populations by selectively removing diseased individuals. Predators typically prefer some ages of prey over others, which may, or may not, align with those prey ages that are most likely to be diseased. The interaction of age-specific infection and predation has not been previously explored and likely has sizable effects on disease dynamics. We hypothesize that predator cleansing effects will be greater when the disease and predation occur in the same prey age groups. We examine the predator cleansing effect using a model where both vulnerability to predators and pathogen prevalence vary with age. We tailor this model to chronic wasting disease (CWD) in mule deer and elk populations in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, with empirical data from Yellowstone grey wolves and cougars. Model results suggest that under moderate, yet realistic, predation pressure from cougars and wolves independently, predators may decrease CWD outbreak size substantially and delay the accumulation of symptomatic deer and elk. The magnitude of this effect is driven by the ability of predators to selectively remove late-stage CWD infections that are likely the most responsible for transmission, but this may not be the age class they typically select. Thus, predators that select for infected young adults over uninfected juveniles have a stronger cleansing effect, and these effects are strengthened when transmission rates increase with increasing prey morbidity. There are also trade-offs from a management perspective—that is, increasing predator kill rates can result in opposing forces on prey abundance and CWD prevalence. Our modelling exploration shows that predators have the potential to reduce prevalence in prey populations when prey age and disease severity are considered, yet the strength of this effect is influenced by predators' selection for demography or body condition. Current CWD management focuses on increasing cervid hunting as the primary management tool, and our results suggest predators may also be a useful tool under certain conditions, but not necessarily without additional impacts on host abundance and demography. Protected areas with predator populations will play a large role in informing the debate over predator impacts on disease.

Wyoming↗

USGS2022

Using piecewise regression to identify biological phenomena in biotelemetry datasets

1. Technological advances in the field of animal tracking have greatly expanded the potential to remotely monitor animals, opening the door to exploring how animals shift their behavior over time or respond to external stimuli. A wide variety of animal-borne sensors can provide information on an animal’s location, movement characteristics, external environmental conditions, and internal physiological status. 2. Here, we demonstrate how piecewise regression can be used to identify the presence and timing of potential shifts in a variety of biological responses using GPS telemetry and other biologging data streams. Different biological latent states can be inferred by partitioning a time-series into multiple segments based on changes in modeled responses (e.g., their mean, variance, trend, degree of autocorrelation) and specifying a unique model structure for each interval. 3. We provide six example applications highlighting a variety of taxonomic species, data streams, timescales and biological phenomena. These examples include a short-term behavioural response (flee and return) by a trumpeter swan Cygnus buccinator following a GPS collar deployment; remote identification of parturition based on movements by a pregnant moose Alces alces ; a physiological response (spike in heart-rate) in a black bear Ursus americanus to a stressful stimulus(presence of a drone); a mortality event of a trumpeter swan signalled by changes in collar temperature and overall dynamic body acceleration; an unsupervised method for identifying the onset, return, duration and staging use of sandhill crane Antigone canadensis migration; and estimation of the transition between incubation and brood-rearing (i.e. hatching) for a breeding trumpeter swan. 4. We implement analyses using the MCP package in R, which provides functionality for specifying and fitting a wide variety of user-defined model structures in a Bayesian framework and methods for assessing and comparing models using information criteria and cross-validation measures.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2023

Identifying mechanisms underlying individual body size increases in a changing, highly seasonal environment: The growing trout of West Brook

As air temperature increases, it has been suggested that smaller individual body size may be a general response to climate warming. However, for ectotherms inhabiting cold, highly seasonal environments, warming temperatures may increase the scope for growth and result in larger body size. In a long-term study of individual brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta inhabiting a small stream network, individual lengths increased over the course of 15 years. As size-selective gains and losses to the population acted to reduce body sizes and mean body size at first tagging in the autumn (<60 mm) were not observed to change substantially over time, the increase in body size was best explained by higher individual growth rates. For brook trout, increasing water temperatures during the spring (when both trout species accomplish most of their total annual growth) was the primary driver of growth rate for juvenile fish and the environmental factor which best explained increases in individual body size over time. For brown trout, by contrast, reduction in and subsequent elimination of juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar midway through the study period explained most of the increases in juvenile growth and body size. In addition to these major trends, a considerable amount of interannual variation in trout growth and body size was explained by other abiotic (stream flow) and biotic (population density) factors with the direction and magnitude of these effects differing by season, age-class and species. For example, stream flow was the dominant growth rate driver for adult fish with strong positive effects in the summer and autumn, but flow variation could not explain increases in body size as we observed no trend in flow. Overall, our work supports the general contention that for high-latitude ectotherms, increasing spring temperatures associated with a warming climate can result in increased growth and individual body size (up to a point), but context-dependent change in other factors can substantially contribute to both interannual variation and longer-term effects.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2022

Disentangling direct and indirect effects of extreme events on coastal wetland communities

One of the primary ways in which climate change will impact coastal freshwater wetlands is through changes in the frequency, intensity, timing and distribution of extreme weather events. Disentangling the direct and indirect mechanisms of population- and community-level responses to extreme events is vital to predicting how species composition of coastal wetlands will change under future conditions. We extended static structural equation modelling approaches to incorporate system dynamics in a multi-year multispecies occupancy model to quantify the effects of extreme weather events on a coastal freshwater wetland system. We used data from an 8-year study (2009–2016) on St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge in Florida, USA, to quantify species-specific and community-level changes in amphibian and fish occupancy associated with two flooding events in 2012 and 2013. We examine how physical changes to the landscape, including potential changes in salinity and increased wetland connectivity, may have contributed to or exacerbated the effects of these extreme weather events on the biota of isolated coastal wetlands. We provide evidence that the primary effects of flooding on the amphibian community were through indirect mechanisms via changes in the composition of the sympatric fish community that may have had lethal (i.e. through direct predation) or non-lethal (i.e. through direct or indirect competitive interactions) effects. In addition, we have shown that amphibian species differed in their sensitivity to direct flooding effects and indirect changes in the fish community and wetland-specific conductance, which led to variable responses across the community. These effects led to the overall decline in amphibian species richness from 2009 to 2016, suggesting that wetland-breeding amphibian communities on St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge may not be resilient to predicted changes in coastal disturbance regimes because of climate change. Understanding both direct and indirect effects, as well as species interactions, is important for predicting the effects of a changing climate on individual species, communities and ecosystems.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2023

Revealing the extent of sea otter impacts on bivalve prey through multi-trophic monitoring and mechanistic models

Sea otters are apex predators that can exert considerable influence over the nearshore communities they occupy. Since facing near extinction in the early 1900s, sea otters are making a remarkable recovery in Southeast Alaska, particularly in Glacier Bay, the largest protected tidewater glacier fjord in the world. The expansion of sea otters across Glacier Bay offers both a challenge to monitoring and stewardship and an unprecedented opportunity to study the top-down effect of a novel apex predator across a diverse and productive ecosystem. Our goal was to integrate monitoring data across trophic levels, space, and time to quantify and map the predator–prey interaction between sea otters and butter clams Saxidomus gigantea , one of the dominant large bivalves in Glacier Bay and a favoured prey of sea otters. We developed a spatially-referenced mechanistic differential equation model of butter clam dynamics that combined both environmental drivers of local population growth and estimates of otter abundance from aerial survey data. We embedded this model in a Bayesian statistical framework and fit it to clam survey data from 43 intertidal and subtidal sites across Glacier Bay. Prior to substantial sea otter expansion, we found that butter clam density was structured by an environmental gradient driven by distance from glacier (represented by latitude) and a quadratic effect of current speed. Estimates of sea otter attack rate revealed spatial heterogeneity in sea otter impacts and a negative relationship with local shoreline complexity. Sea otter exploitation of productive butter clam habitat substantially reduced the abundance and altered the distribution of butter clams across Glacier Bay, with potential cascading consequences for nearshore community structure and function. Spatial variation in estimated sea otter predation processes further suggests that community context and local environmental conditions mediate the top-down influence of sea otters on a given prey. Overall, our framework provides high-resolution insights about the interaction among components of this food web and could be applied to a variety of other systems involving invasive species, epidemiology or migration.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2023

Stream hydrology and a pulse subsidy shape patterns of fish foraging

Pulsed subsidy events create ephemeral fluxes of hyper-abundant resources that can shape annual patterns of consumption and growth for recipient consumers. However, environmental conditions strongly affect local resource availability for much of the year, and can heavily impact consumer foraging and growth patterns prior to pulsed subsidy events. Thus, a consumer's capacity to exploit pulse subsidy resources may be influenced by antecedent environmental conditions, but this has rarely been shown in nature and is unknown in aquatic ecosystems. Here, we sought to understand the importance of hydrologic variation and a salmon pulse subsidy on the foraging and growth patterns of two stream salmonids in a coastal southeast Alaska drainage. To do this, we sampled fish stomach contents at a high temporal frequency (daily–weekly measurements) and analyzed fish consumption rates in relation to streamflow and pulse subsidy resource availability. We then explored the influence of interannual hydrologic variation on access to pulse subsidy resources (i.e. whether fish exceeded an egg consumption gape limit) in a bioenergetic simulation. Prior to Pink Salmon spawning, Dolly Varden and Coho Salmon displayed distinct and nonlinear flow-foraging relationships, where forage for both species consisted primarily of macroinvertebrates. During this time period, consumption maxima coincided with baseflow and the highest observed flow conditions, and consumption minima were observed at severe low-water and intermediate flow values. After salmon spawning began, forage was not significantly related to flow and consisted primarily of salmon eggs. Further, consumption rates increased overall, and foraging patterns did not appear to be affected by flow in either species. Bioenergetic simulations revealed that patterns of interannual hydrologic variation may shift Coho Salmon growth trajectories among years. Together, our results suggest that access to marine pulse subsidy resources may depend on whether antecedent hydrologic conditions are suitable for juvenile salmonids to grow large enough to consume salmon eggs by the onset of spawning.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Springing forward: Migrating songbirds catch up with the start of spring in North America

In temperate regions, the annual pattern of spring onset can be envisioned as a ‘green wave’ of emerging vegetation that moves across continents from low to high latitudes, signifying increasing food availability for consumers. Many herbivorous migrants ‘surf’ such resource waves, timing their movements to exploit peak vegetation resources in early spring. Although less well studied at the individual level, secondary consumers such as insectivorous songbirds can track vegetation phenology during migration as well. We hypothesized that four species of ground-foraging songbirds in eastern North America—two warblers and two thrushes—time their spring migrations to coincide with later phases of vegetation phenology, corresponding to increased arthropod prey, and predicted they would match their migration rate to the green wave but trail behind it rather than surfing its leading edge. We further hypothesized that the rate at which spring onset progresses across the continent influences bird migration rates, such that individuals adjust migration timing within North America to phenological conditions they experience en route . To test our hypotheses, we used a continent-wide automated radio telemetry network to track individual songbirds on spring migration between the U.S. Gulf Coast region and northern locations closer to their breeding grounds. We measured vegetation phenology using two metrics of spring onset, the spring index first leaf date and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), then calculated the rate and timing of spring onset relative to bird detections. All individuals arrived in the southeastern United States well after local spring onset. Counter to our expectations, we found that songbirds exhibited a ‘catching up’ pattern: Individuals migrated faster than the green wave of spring onset, effectively closing in on the start of spring as they approached breeding areas. While surfing of resource waves is a well-documented migration strategy for herbivorous waterfowl and ungulates, individual songbirds in our study migrated faster than the green wave and increasingly caught up to its leading edge en route . Consequently, songbirds experience a range of vegetation phenophases while migrating through North America, suggesting flexibility in their capacity to exploit variable resources in spring.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2024

A ‘how-to’ guide for estimating animal diel activity using hierarchical models

Animal diel activity patterns can aid understanding of (a) how species behaviourally adapt to anthropogenic and natural disturbances, (b) mechanisms of species co-existence through temporal partitioning, and (c) community or ecosystem effects of diel activity shifts. Activity patterns often vary spatially, a feature ignored by the kernel density estimators (KDEs) currently used for estimating diel activity. Ignoring this source of heterogeneity may lead to biased estimates of uncertainty and misleading conclusions regarding the drivers of diel activity. Thus, there is a need for more flexible statistical approaches for estimating activity patterns and testing hypotheses regarding their biotic and abiotic drivers. We illustrate how trigonometric terms and cyclic cubic splines combined with hierarchical models can provide a valuable alternative to KDEs. Like KDEs, these models accommodate circular data, but they can also account for site-to-site and other sources of variability, correlation amongst repeated measures, and variable sampling effort. They can also more readily quantify and test hypotheses related to the effects of covariates on activity patterns. Through empirical case studies, we illustrate how hierarchical models can quantify changes in activity levels due to seasonality and in response to biotic and abiotic factors (e.g. anthropogenic stressors and co-occurrence). We also describe frequentist and Bayesian approaches for quantifying site-specific (conditional) and population-averaged (marginal) activity patterns. We provide guidelines and tutorials with detailed step-by-step instructions for fitting and interpreting hierarchical models applied to time-stamped data, such as those recorded by camera traps and audio recorders. We conclude that this approach offers a viable, flexible, and effective alternative to KDEs when modelling animal activity patterns.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2025

Navigating new threats: Prey naivete in native mammals

1. Invasive predators pose a substantial threat to global biodiversity. Native prey species frequently exhibit naïveté to the cues of invasive predators, and this phenomenon may contribute to the disproportionate impact of invasive predators on prey populations. However, not all species exhibit naïveté, which has led to the generation of many hypotheses to explain patterns in prey responses. These hypotheses primarily fall into two categories: system-centric hypotheses related to biogeographic isolation (BIH) and species-centric hypotheses, like the arche type similarity hypothesis (ASH). 2. We tested the predictions of these hypotheses by assessing the response of the common raccoon ( Procyon lotor ) and hispid cotton rat ( Sigmodon hispidus ), two native mammal species with divergent snake predation histories, to the cues of the invasive Burmese python ( Python bivittatus ) in the Florida Everglades (USA). Using giving-up densities (GUDs), we assessed the responses of both cotton rats and raccoons to life-size replicas of Burmese pythons and two North American predators eastern diamondback rattlesnakes ( Crotalus adamanteus ) and coyotes ( Canis latrans ). 3. Although cotton rats increased their GUD in the presence of all three predators relative to the novel-object control, raccoons only increased their GUD in coyote treatments. 4. These results align with the predictions of the ASH but not the BIH, and mirror observed patterns of population declines in invaded areas of the Florida Everglades. 5. More broadly, our findings suggest that naïveté may contribute to the vulnerability of some species to invasive predators even in large continental systems

Florida↗

USGS2025

Demographic mechanisms of snowshoe hare population cycles in Yukon, Canada

One hundred years have elapsed since Charles Elton (1924) described the periodic fluctuations in North American snowshoe hare abundance, yet mechanisms underlying 9–11-year population cycles in snowshoe hares continue to be debated. We applied multistate capture–mark–recapture models to long-term field data (1977–2020) based on >20,000 captures of >7000 unique snowshoe hares ( Lepus americanus ) from Kluane Lake, Yukon, Canada, to estimate and model state-specific demographic parameters. Juveniles had the lowest and reproductive adult females the highest apparent survival. Apparent survival of all sex-age classes was highest during the mid- and late-breeding seasons and was generally better during the increase phase. Conditional probability of females transitioning from non-reproductive to reproductive state, and reproductive females remaining in the reproductive state, increased substantially as the population transitioned from low to increase phase throughout the breeding season. Analysis of stage-structured matrix population models revealed that population-dynamic characteristics were strongly phase-specific, and also varied across seasons, with the increase phases being characterized by high monthly asymptotic population growth rate. Snowshoe hares experienced short stage-specific generation time during the early breeding season across all phases; they experienced relatively long generation time during the increase and low phase of the mid-breeding season, and the increase and peak phase of the late breeding season. Elasticity analyses showed that asymptotic population growth rate was proportionately most sensitive to changes in survival of adult females across all phases and seasons. However, retrospective life table response experiment analysis showed that rapid growth of the snowshoe hare populations during the increase phase was due to improvements in reproductive transitions and pre-weaning survival, whereas population declines are caused primarily by reduced survival (primarily, pre-weaning survival), with reduced reproductive transitions and smaller litter sizes playing a secondary role. Our results suggest that cyclic populations of snowshoe hares are characterized by complex demographic and population-dynamic patterns, depending on phase of the cycle and reproductive season, and that different demographic mechanisms underlie rapid population growth during the increase phase, and swift population declines as the population transitions from the peak to the decline phase. Because our study represents the first comprehensive demographic and population-dynamic study of a cyclic population, similar studies would be needed to test the generalities of our conclusions. Whereas density-dependent predation has been shown to be the primary cause of phase-related changes in survival, future research should focus on identifying mechanisms underlying phase-related changes in reproductive parameters.

Yukon↗

USGS2026

Predicting disease spread from host movement data: Chronic wasting disease in North America as a case study

1. Rare long-distance movements can increase the spatial spread of invasive species and shifts in species ranges. However, in the context of wildlife disease spread, seasonal migrations only matter if they lead to transmission beyond an individual’s initial set of contacts, and the importance of juvenile dispersal depends on whether those juveniles become infected before they disperse. 2. High resolution animal movement data are increasing, but it is unclear how to leverage these data to improve predictions future disease spread particularly in regions without pre-existing movement data. 3. We predicted the speed of chronic wasting disease (CWD) spread based on movement metrics of mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) and compared our predictions to observed spreading rates in North America from 2005 to 2022. We hypothesized that CWD should spread faster in regions with long-distance migratory mule deer, but this hypothesis was only partially supported. 4. Observed rates of CWD spread were faster in western epicenters with more mobile mule deer than in epicenters with only white-tailed deer (14-18 km/yr compared to 5-7 km/yr, respectively). However, the observed speed of CWD spread did not align well with migration distances. Deer movements in the Canadian Prairie Provinces (CPP) were far shorter than those in Colorado and Wyoming, yet had faster CWD spread much of which was open prairies where deer movements tend to be along riverine corridors rather than the longer elevational migrations in more montane regions. 5. Generally, our predicted rates of CWD spread from three different models were far slower than the observed rates regardless of whether the model included dispersal or migration. Understanding of these discrepancies is needed before high-resolution animal movement data can be used to predict broad-scale patterns of disease invasion. 6. Anthropogenic movements likely explain longer-distance movements of CWD across North America, but it remains unclear whether human-mediated movements or alternative analytical methods and deer movement metrics can explain the faster than predicted local CWD spread.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2012

A framework for understanding semi-permeable barrier effects on migratory ungulates

1. Impermeable barriers to migration can greatly constrain the set of possible routes and ranges used by migrating animals. For ungulates, however, many forms of development are semi-permeable, and making informed management decisions about their potential impacts to the persistence of migration routes is difficult because our knowledge of how semi-permeable barriers affect migratory behaviour and function is limited. 2. Here, we propose a general framework to advance the understanding of barrier effects on ungulate migration by emphasizing the need to (i) quantify potential barriers in terms that allow behavioural thresholds to be considered, (ii) identify and measure behavioural responses to semi-permeable barriers and (iii) consider the functional attributes of the migratory landscape (e.g. stopovers) and how the benefits of migration might be reduced by behavioural changes. 3. We used global position system (GPS) data collected from two subpopulations of mule deer Odocoileus hemionus to evaluate how different levels of gas development influenced migratory behaviour, including movement rates and stopover use at the individual level, and intensity of use and width of migration route at the population level. We then characterized the functional landscape of migration routes as either stopover habitat or movement corridors and examined how the observed behavioural changes affected the functionality of the migration route in terms of stopover use. 4. We found migratory behaviour to vary with development intensity. Our results suggest that mule deer can migrate through moderate levels of development without any noticeable effects on migratory behaviour. However, in areas with more intensive development, animals often detoured from established routes, increased their rate of movement and reduced stopover use, while the overall use and width of migration routes decreased. 5. Synthesis and applications . In contrast to impermeable barriers that impede animal movement, semi-permeable barriers allow animals to maintain connectivity between their seasonal ranges. Our results identify the mechanisms (e.g. detouring, increased movement rates, reduced stopover use) by which semi-permeable barriers affect the functionality of ungulate migration routes and emphasize that the management of semi-permeable barriers may play a key role in the conservation of migratory ungulate populations.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2013

Estimating transmission of avian influenza in wild birds from incomplete epizootic data: implications for surveillance and disease spreac

Estimating disease transmission in wildlife populations is critical to understand host–pathogen dynamics, predict disease risks and prioritize surveillance activities. However, obtaining reliable estimates for free-ranging populations is extremely challenging. In particular, disease surveillance programs may routinely miss the onset or end of epizootics and peak prevalence, limiting the ability to evaluate infectious processes. We used profile likelihood to estimate the force of infection (FOI) in a low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIv) epizootic model from censored time series of LPAIv prevalence in hatch-year waterfowl (order Anseriformes) at postbreeding and migration sites in North America. We found a mean LPAIv FOI of 0·12 day −1 [95% CI, 0·00–0·39], corresponding to an incidence rate of 0·11 day −1 , with geographic heterogeneity (min–max: 0·02–0·23 day −1 ) among study sites. These high infection rates indicate that most hatch-year waterfowl are likely infected with LPAIv early in the fall migration. Comparison of model-predicted and observed immunity confirmed our assumption of naïve hatch-year waterfowl and suggested long-term immunity (>6 months) for adults. Using the mean LPAIv incidence rate, we predict a shorter and lower epizootic curve for highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv; 5 weeks with peak prevalence of 28% and 30% mortality) than LPAIv (8 weeks with peak prevalence of 50%). These findings indicate it is harder to detect HPAIv than LPAIv with swabs from live birds, which are commonly used during disease surveillance. Synthesis and applications . Our study highlights the potential of integrating incomplete surveillance data with epizootic models to quantify disease transmission and immunity. This modelling approach provides an important tool to understand spatial and temporal epizootic dynamics and inform disease surveillance. Our findings suggest focusing highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv) surveillance on postbreeding areas where mortality of immunologically naïve hatch-year birds is most likely to occur, and collecting serology to enhance HPAIv detection. Our modelling approach can integrate various types of disease data facilitating its use with data from other surveillance programs (as illustrated by the estimation of infection rate during an HPAIv outbreak in mute swans Cygnus olor in Europe).

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2013

Measuring the relative resilience of subarctic lakes to global change: redundancies of functions within and across temporal scales

1. Ecosystems at high altitudes and latitudes are expected to be particularly vulnerable to the effects of global change. We assessed the responses of littoral invertebrate communities to changing abiotic conditions in subarctic Swedish lakes with long-term data (1988–2010) and compared the responses of subarctic lakes with those of more southern, hemiboreal lakes. 2. We used a complex systems approach, based on multivariate time-series modelling, and identified dominant and distinct temporal frequencies in the data; that is, we tracked community change at distinct temporal scales. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across temporal scales. Within and cross-scale distributions of functions have been considered to confer resilience to ecosystems, despite changing environmental conditions. 3. Two patterns of temporal change within the invertebrate communities were identified that were consistent across the lakes. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second was one of showing fluctuation patterns largely unrelated to gradual environmental change. Thus, two dominant and distinct temporal frequencies (temporal scales) were present in all lakes analysed. 4. Although the contribution of individual feeding groups varied between subarctic and hemiboreal lakes, they shared overall similar functional attributes (richness, evenness, diversity) and redundancies of functions within and between the observed temporal scales. This highlights similar resilience characteristics in subarctic and hemiboreal lakes. 5. Synthesis and applications. The effects of global change can be particularly strong at a single scale in ecosystems. Over time, this can cause monotonic change in communities and eventually lead to a loss of important ecosystem services upon reaching a critical threshold. Dynamics at other spatial or temporal scales can be unrelated to environmental change. The relative ‘intactness’ of these scales that are unaffected by global change and the persistence of functions at those scales may safeguard the whole system from the potential loss of functions at the scale at which global change impacts can be substantial. Thus, an understanding of scale-specific processes provides managers with a realistic assessment of vulnerabilities and the relative resilience of ecosystems to environmental change. Explicit consideration of ‘intact’ and ‘affected’ scales in analyses of global change impacts provides opportunities to tailor more specific management plans.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2013

Conditions favouring Bromus tectorum dominance of endangered sagebrush steppe ecosystems

1. Ecosystem invasibility is determined by combinations of environmental variables, invader attributes, disturbance regimes, competitive abilities of resident species and evolutionary history between residents and disturbance regimes. Understanding the relative importance of each factor is critical to limiting future invasions and restoring ecosystems. 2. We investigated factors potentially controlling Bromus tectorum invasions into Artemisia tridentata ssp. wyomingensis communities across 75 sites in the Great Basin. We measured soil texture, cattle grazing intensity, gaps among perennial plants and plant cover including B. tectorum, biological soil crusts (BSCs) and bare soil. Using a priori knowledge, we developed a multivariate hypothesis of the susceptibility of Artemisia ecosystems to B. tectorum invasion and used the model to assess the relative importance of the factors driving the magnitude of such invasions. 3. Model results imply that bunchgrass community structure, abundance and composition, along with BSC cover, play important roles in controlling B. tectorum dominance. Evidence suggests abundant bunchgrasses limit invasions by limiting the size and connectivity of gaps between vegetation, and BSCs appear to limit invasions within gaps. Results also suggest that cattle grazing reduces invasion resistance by decreasing bunchgrass abundance, shifting bunchgrass composition, and thereby increasing connectivity of gaps between perennial plants while trampling further reduces resistance by reducing BSC. 4. Synthesis and applications. Grazing exacerbates Bromus tectorum dominance in one of North America's most endangered ecosystems by adversely impacting key mechanisms mediating resistance to invasion. If the goal is to conserve and restore resistance of these systems, managers should consider maintaining or restoring: (i) high bunchgrass cover and structure characterized by spatially dispersed bunchgrasses and small gaps between them; (ii) a diverse assemblage of bunchgrass species to maximize competitive interactions with B. tectorum in time and space; and (iii) biological soil crusts to limit B. tectorum establishment. Passive restoration by reducing cumulative cattle grazing may be one of the most effective means of achieving these three goals.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2014

Using a network modularity analysis to inform management of a rare endemic plant in the northern Great Plains, USA

1. Analyses of flower-visitor interaction networks allow application of community-level information to conservation problems, but management recommendations that ensue from such analyses are not well characterized. Results of modularity analyses, which detect groups of species (modules) that interact more with each other than with species outside their module, may be particularly applicable to management concerns. 2. We conducted modularity analyses of networks surrounding a rare endemic annual plant, Eriogonum visheri , at Badlands National Park, USA, in 2010 and 2011. Plant species visited were determined by pollen on insect bodies and by flower species upon which insects were captured. Roles within modules (network hub, module hub, connector and peripheral, in decreasing order of network structural importance) were determined for each species. 3. Relationships demonstrated by the modularity analysis, in concert with knowledge of pollen species carried by insects, allowed us to infer effects of two invasive species on E. visheri . Sharing a module increased risk of interspecific pollen transfer to E. visheri . Control of invasive Salsola tragus , which shared a module with E. visheri , is therefore a prudent management objective, but lack of control of invasive Melilotus officinalis , which occupied a different module, is unlikely to negatively affect pollination of E. visheri . Eriogonum pauciflorum may occupy a key position in this network, supporting insects from the E. visheri module when E. visheri is less abundant. 4. Year-to-year variation in species' roles suggests management decisions must be based on observations over several years. Information on pollen deposition on stigmas would greatly strengthen inferences made from the modularity analysis. 5. Synthesis and applications: Assessing the consequences of pollination, whether at the community or individual level, is inherently time-consuming. A trade-off exists: rather than an estimate of fitness effects, the network approach provides a broad understanding of the relationships among insect visitors and other plant species that may affect the focal rare plant. Knowledge of such relationships allows managers to detect, target and prioritize control of only the important subset of invasive species present and identify other species that may augment a rare species' population stability, such as E. pauciflorum in our study.

South Dakota↗

USGS2014

Controls of vegetation structure and net primary production in restored grasslands

1. Vegetation structure and net primary production (NPP) are fundamental properties of ecosystems. Understanding how restoration practices following disturbance interact with environmental factors to control these properties can provide insight on how ecosystems recover and guide management efforts. 2. We assessed the relative contribution of environmental and restoration factors in controlling vegetation structure, above- and below-ground investment in production across a chronosequence of semiarid Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) fields recovering from dryland wheat cropping relative to undisturbed grassland. Importantly, we determined the role of plant diversity and how seeding either native or introduced perennial grasses influenced the recovery of vegetation properties. 3. Plant basal cover increased with field age and was highest in CRP fields seeded with native perennial grasses. In contrast, fields seeded with introduced perennial grasses had tall-growing plants with relatively low basal cover. These vegetation structural characteristics interacted with precipitation, but not soil characteristics, to influence above-ground NPP (ANPP). Fields enrolled in the CRP program for >7 years supported twice as much ANPP as undisturbed shortgrass steppe in the first wet year of the study, but all CRP fields converged on a common low amount of ANPP in the following dry year and invested less than half as much as the shortgrass steppe in below-ground biomass. 4. ANPP in CRP fields seeded with native perennial grasses for more than 7 years was positively related to species richness, whereas ANPP in CRP fields seeded with introduced perennial grasses were controlled more by dominant species. 5. Synthesis and applications. Seeding with introduced, instead of native, perennial grasses had a strong direct influence on vegetation structure, including species richness, which indirectly affected NPP through time. However, the effects of restoring either native or introduced grasses on NPP were secondary to low water availability. Therefore, restoration strategies that maximize basal cover and below-ground biomass, which promote water acquisition, may lead to high resilience in semiarid and arid regions.

Colorado↗

USGS2014

Accounting for false-positive acoustic detections of bats using occupancy models

1. Acoustic surveys have become a common survey method for bats and other vocal taxa. Previous work shows that bat echolocation may be misidentified, but common analytic methods, such as occupancy models, assume that misidentifications do not occur. Unless rare, such misidentifications could lead to incorrect inferences with significant management implications. 2. We fit a false-positive occupancy model to data from paired bat detector and mist-net surveys to estimate probability of presence when survey data may include false positives. We compared estimated occupancy and detection rates to those obtained from a standard occupancy model. We also derived a formula to estimate the probability that bats were present at a site given its detection history. As an example, we analysed survey data for little brown bats Myotis lucifugus from 135 sites in Washington and Oregon, USA. 3. We estimated that at an unoccupied site, acoustic surveys had a 14% chance per night of producing spurious M. lucifugus detections. Estimated detection rates were higher and occupancy rates were lower under the false-positive model, relative to a standard occupancy model. Un-modelled false positives also affected inferences about occupancy at individual sites. For example, probability of occupancy at individual sites with acoustic detections but no captures ranged from 2% to 100% under the false-positive occupancy model, but was always 100% under a standard occupancy model. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our results suggest that false positives sufficient to affect inferences may be common in acoustic surveys for bats. We demonstrate an approach that can estimate occupancy, regardless of the false-positive rate, when acoustic surveys are paired with capture surveys. Applications of this approach include monitoring the spread of White-Nose Syndrome, estimating the impact of climate change and informing conservation listing decisions. We calculate a site-specific probability of occupancy, conditional on survey results, which could inform local permitting decisions, such as for wind energy projects. More generally, the magnitude of false positives suggests that false-positive occupancy models can improve accuracy in research and monitoring of bats and provide wildlife managers with more reliable information.

Oregon, Washington↗