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Effective groundwater model calibration: With analysis of data, sensitivities, predictions, and uncertainty

Methods and guidelines for developing and using mathematical models Turn to Effective Groundwater Model Calibration for a set of methods and guidelines that can help produce more accurate and transparent mathematical models. The models can represent groundwater flow and transport and other natural and engineered systems. Use this book and its extensive exercises to learn methods to fully exploit the data on hand, maximize the model's potential, and troubleshoot any problems that arise. Use the methods to perform: Sensitivity analysis to evaluate the information content of data Data assessment to identify (a) existing measurements that dominate model development and predictions and (b) potential measurements likely to improve the reliability of predictions Calibration to develop models that are consistent with the data in an optimal manner Uncertainty evaluation to quantify and communicate errors in simulated results that are often used to make important societal decisions Most of the methods are based on linear and nonlinear regression theory. Fourteen guidelines show the reader how to use the methods advantageously in practical situations. Exercises focus on a groundwater flow system and management problem, enabling readers to apply all the methods presented in the text. The exercises can be completed using the material provided in the book, or as hands-on computer exercises using instructions and files available on the text's accompanying Web site. Throughout the book, the authors stress the need for valid statistical concepts and easily understood presentation methods required to achieve well-tested, transparent models. Most of the examples and all of the exercises focus on simulating groundwater systems; other examples come from surface-water hydrology and geophysics. The methods and guidelines in the text are broadly applicable and can be used by students, researchers, and engineers to simulate many kinds systems.

Book↗

The Robinson Forest environmental monitoring network: Long‐term evaluation of streamflow and precipitation quantity and stream‐water and bulk deposition chemistry in eastern Kentucky watersheds

The University of Kentucky (U KY) has owned Robinson Forest (37.460723° N, 83.158598° W) since 1923, conducting experiments crucial to understanding the environmental effects of land management in the region. Part of the management of Robinson Forest has been collection of environmental data, including precipitation quantity, bulk‐deposition chemistry, streamflow, stream‐water chemistry, and air and stream temperature. Over the years, these data have been collected and archived using various technologies and have been mostly inaccessible for research use – unedited and uncompiled, scattered across several spreadsheets and paper records. Through a partnership between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U KY, daily precipitation data for six stations and stream data from four watersheds in Robinson Forest have been compiled for 1971–2018, checked for transcription errors, and annotated for changes in methodologies. These data are available as a USGS data release at https://doi.org/10.5066/P9FPLG1O . Improved accessibility of this data set provides an important research resource for understanding water quality in minimally effected forests in the region. Preliminary results indicate that these data present a valuable opportunity to evaluate linkages among atmospheric deposition and stream chemistry, the effects of environmental policy, such as the Clean Air Act, and effects from nearby land disturbance in the form of surface mining. Furthermore, these data fill a geographic and physiographic gap in what is available to examine deposition and streamflow patterns over the last 45 years, supplementing those long‐term records of research sites in northern (e.g., Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest), central (e.g., Fernow Experimental Forest) and southern Appalachia (e.g., Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory). As an oasis in the midst of significant surface mining activity, Robinson Forest presents a unique opportunity to understand environmental conditions characteristic of minimally disturbed forests similar to pre‐mining conditions in the Central Appalachian region.

Kentucky↗

Climate-induced tree mortality: Earth system consequences

One of the greatest uncertainties in global environmental change is predicting changes in feedbacks between the biosphere and the Earth system. Terrestrial ecosystems and, in particular, forests exert strong controls on the global carbon cycle and influence regional hydrology and climatology directly through water and surface energy budgets [ Bonan , 2008; Chapin et al. , 2008]. According to new research, tree mortality associated with elevated temperatures and drought has the potential to rapidly alter forest ecosystems, potentially affecting feedbacks to the Earth system [ Allen et al. , 2010]. Several lines of recent research demonstrate how tree mortality rates in forests may be sensitive to climate change—particularly warming and drying. This emerging consequence of global change has important effects on Earth system processes (Figure 1).

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

Monograph for using paleoflood data in Water Resources Applications

The Environmental and Water Resources Institute (EWRI) Technical Committee on Surface Water Hydrology is sponsoring a Task Committee on Paleoflood Hydrology to prepare a monograph entitled, "Use of Paleoflood and Historical Data in Water Resources Applications." This paper introduces the subject of paleoflood hydrology and discusses the topics, which are expected to be included in the monograph. The procedure for preparing and reviewing the monograph will also be discussed. The paleoflood hydrology monograph will include a discussion of types of hydrologic and paleoflood data, paleostage indicators, flood chronology, modeling methods, interpretation issues, water resources applications and case studies, and research needs. Paleoflood data collection and analysis techniques will be presented, and various applications in water-resources investigations will be provided. An overview of several flood frequency analysis approaches, which consider historical and paleoflood data along with systematic streamflow records, will be presented. The monograph is scheduled for completion and publication in 2001. Copyright ASCE 2004.

Conference Paper↗

Working toward a National Coordinated Soil Moisture Monitoring Network: Vision, progress, and future directions

Soil moisture is a critical land surface variable, impacting the water, energy, and carbon cycles. While in situ soil moisture monitoring networks are still developing, there is no cohesive strategy or framework to coordinate, integrate, or disseminate these diverse data sources in a synergistic way that can improve our ability to understand climate variability at the national, state, and local levels. Thus, a national strategy is needed to guide network deployment, sustainable network operation, data integration and dissemination, and user-focused product development. The National Coordinated Soil Moisture Monitoring Network (NCSMMN) is a federally led, multi-institution effort that aims to address these needs by capitalizing on existing wide-ranging soil moisture monitoring activities, increasing the utility of observational data, and supporting their strategic application to the full range of decision-making needs. The goals of the NCSMMN are to 1) establish a national “network of networks” that effectively demonstrates data integration and operational coordination of diverse in situ networks; 2) build a community of practice around soil moisture measurement, interpretation, and application—a “network of people” that links data providers, researchers, and the public; and 3) support research and development (R&D) on techniques to merge in situ soil moisture data with remotely sensed and modeled hydrologic data to create user-friendly soil moisture maps and associated tools. The overarching mission of the NCSMMN is to provide coordinated high-quality, nationwide soil moisture information for the public good by supporting applications like drought and flood monitoring, water resource management, agricultural and forestry planning, and fire danger ratings.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗

U.S. Geological Survey Rocky Mountain Region 2022 science exchange, showcasing interdisciplinary and state-of-the-art USGS science

Introduction The Rocky Mountains and the Colorado River Basin in the Western United States represent complex, interconnected systems that sustain a number of species, including tens of millions of humans. These systems face several challenges, including worsening drought, altered wildfire regimes, climate change, and the spread of invasive species. These factors can exacerbate one another, further contributing to habitat loss and affecting species of conservation concern. Characterizing and managing these challenges require interdisciplinary communities of scientists to develop information and decision-support tools that can inform holistic land and water management solutions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Rocky Mountain Region 2022 Science Exchange focused on the use of interdisciplinary and state-of-the-art science being conducted by USGS scientists in the region to address these complex problems. The USGS Rocky Mountain Regional Office organized its first Science Exchange in 2017 to share scientific information between leaders and early career scientists throughout the region. Science Exchanges held in 2018 and 2020 focused on drought science relevant to the region and the Earth Monitoring, Analyses, and Prediction (EarthMAP) concept, which is designed to facilitate interdisciplinary, timely, and actionable science related to drought in the Colorado River Basin and other areas. Based on the emerging need for more holistic approaches to address increasingly complex natural resource issues that affect society, the Region hosted a virtual fourth Science Exchange for three days in April 2022. This event focused on barriers and bridges to interdisciplinary science and highlighted studies from the Region to inspire collaboration across disciplines. Presentations described recent and ongoing research that applied collaborative and state-of-the-art methods to address problems in the fields of geology, hydrology, ecology, and natural hazards. Science collaboration and outreach to all levels of stakeholders are vital elements needed for providing timely and actionable data, interpretations, analytical tools, and products. These presentations led to active online chats and panel discussions and showcased interdisciplinary science and advanced methods that may inform and lead to more effective, holistic management decisions as the Western United States adapts to ongoing and future changes.

Fact Sheet↗

Logical data model for hydrographic data based on HY_Features concepts

This report describes background and design of the “hydrofabric data model” which defines logic for implementation of data schemas and software that deals with hydrologic geospatial data. As a “logical” data model, the hydrofabric data model specifies details necessary to support compatibility of data and software that satisfy diverse needs without unnecessarily restricting implementation details. The logic presented in this report is based on concepts defined in WaterML2 Part 3 Surface Hydrology Features Concepts and is designed to serve the needs of a range of hydroscience use cases. Development of international community standards applicable to hydrofabrics began, prompted by the World Meteorological Organization Commission for Hydrology, in 2012 [5] . More than 10 years later, this report documents one aspect of a long-term research and development activity that traces its roots back that far. This report describes terminology, use cases, and background as context preceding presentation of the logical model and discussion of its design. Three appendices document related data models, an example encoding of the hydrofabric data model, and an artificial schematic and tabular data example. The sections of the report can be accessed in the Clause 5 section.

OCG Public Engineering Report↗

Water quality at Chaco Culture National Historical Park and the potential effects of hydrocarbon extraction

Study region Chaco Culture National Historical Park (CCNHP) is in the San Juan Basin of northwestern New Mexico, U.S.A. Its only water supply is in Gallup Sandstone aquifer, stratigraphically surrounded by layers long targeted for oil and natural gas extraction. Study focus To assess groundwater flow direction, age, mixing between aquifers, and whether hydrocarbons extraction may affect water quality, we completed a geochemical groundwater sampling campaign. Groundwater at 11 sites was analyzed for major ions, hydrocarbon associated volatile organic carbon (VOC) compounds, noble gases, and the isotope systems δ 2 H, δ 18 O, 87 Sr/ 86 Sr, δ 13 C, and 14 C. New hydrological insights for the region Results demonstrate that all sampled groundwaters are exceedingly old and geochemically evolved, with a median 14 C age of ∼41,000 years before present and a north flowing path. Three lines of evidence suggest mixing between aquifers through relatively impermeable shale units and mixing with hydrocarbons: 1) noble gases are fractionated likely through mixing with connate water expelled during hydrocarbon genesis; 2) several wells—including the park’s main supply well—contained trace amounts of hydrocarbon related VOC compounds; and 3) major ion analysis shows mixing trends between aquifers. We hypothesize that cross-aquifer mixing may be facilitated through the region’s numerous hydrocarbon related boreholes. Whether our findings are the result of oil and gas extraction or represent the natural state of the aquifers will require more research.

New Mexico↗

Geoelectrical evidence of bicontinuum transport in groundwater

Bicontinuum models and rate-limited mass transfer (RLMT) explain complex transport behavior (e.g., long tailing and rebound) in heterogeneous geologic media, but experimental verification is problematic because geochemical samples represent the mobile component of the pore space. Here, we present geophysical evidence of RLMT at the field scale during an aquifer-storage and recovery experiment in a fractured limestone aquifer in Charleston, South Carolina. We observe a hysteretic relation between measurements of porefluid conductivity and bulk electrical conductivity; this hysteresis contradicts advective-dispersive transport and the standard petrophysical model relating pore-fluid and bulk conductivity, but can be explained by considering bicontinuum transport models that include first-order RLMT. Using a simple numerical model, we demonstrate that geoelectrical measurements are sensitive to bicontinuum transport and RLMT parameters, which are otherwise difficult to infer from direct, hydrologic measurements.

South Carolina↗

Advances in quantifying streamflow variability across continental scales: 2. Improved model regionalization and prediction uncertainties using hierarchical Bayesian methods

The precise estimation of process effects in hydrological models requires applying models to large scales with extensive spatial variability in controlling factors. Despite progress in large‐scale applications of hydrological models in conterminous United States (CONUS) river basins, spatial constraints in model parameters have prevented the interbasin sharing of data, complicating quantification of process effects and limiting the accuracy of model predictions and uncertainties. Hierarchical Bayesian methods enable data sharing between basins and the identification of the causes of model uncertainties, which can improve model accuracy and interpretability; however, computational inefficiencies have been an obstacle to their large‐scale application. We used a new generation of Bayesian methods to develop a hierarchical version of a previous hybrid (statistical‐mechanistic) SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes model of long‐term mean annual streamflow in the CONUS. We identified hierarchical (regional) variations in model coefficients and uncertainties and evaluated their effects on model accuracy and interpretability across diverse environments in 16 major CONUS regions. Hierarchical coefficients significantly improved spatial accuracy of model predictions, with the largest improvements in humid eastern regions, where uncertainties were approximately one third of those in arid western regions. Half of the coefficients varied regionally, with the largest variations in coefficients associated with water losses in streams and reservoirs. Our unraveling of the causes of model uncertainties identified a small latent process component of runoff that varies inversely with river size in most CONUS regions. Our study advances the use of hierarchical Bayesian methods to improve the predictive capabilities of hydrological models.

Water Resources Research↗

Ecological requirements for pallid sturgeon reproduction and recruitment in the Missouri River—Annual report 2013

The Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Project is a multiyear, multiagency collaborative research framework developed to provide information to support pallid sturgeon recovery and Missouri River management decisions. The project strategy integrates field and laboratory studies of pallid sturgeon reproductive ecology, early life history, habitat requirements, and physiology. The project scope of work is developed annually with collaborating research partners and in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Missouri River Recovery—Integrated Science Program. The research consists of several interdependent and complementary tasks that engage multiple disciplines. The research tasks in the 2013 scope of work emphasized understanding reproductive migrations and spawning of adult pallid sturgeon, and hatch and drift of free embryos and larvae. These tasks were addressed in four study sections located in three hydrologically and geomorphologically distinct parts of the Missouri River Basin: the Upper Missouri River downstream from Fort Peck Dam, including downstream reaches of the Milk River, the Lower Yellowstone River, and the Lower Missouri River downstream from Gavins Point Dam. The research is designed to inform management decisions related to channel re-engineering, flow modification, and pallid sturgeon population augmentation on the Missouri River, and throughout the range of the species. Research and progress made through this project are reported to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers annually. This annual report details the research effort and progress made by the Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Project during 2013.

Missouri River Basin↗

Annual compilation and analysis of hydrologic data for urban studies in the Bryan, Texas, metropolitan area, 1969

Hydrologic investigations of urban areas in Texas were begun by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1954. These studies are now in progress in Austin, Houston, Dallas, Dallas County, Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Bryan. Hydrologic investigations of urban areas in Texas were begun by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1954. These studies are now in progress in Austin, Houston, Dallas, Dallas County, Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Bryan. 1. To determine, on the basis of historical data and hydrologic analyses, the magnitude and frequency of floods. 2. To document and define the areal extent of floods of greater than ordinary magnitude. 3. To determine the effect of urban development on flood peaks and volume. 4. To provide applied research facilities for studies at Texas A & M University at College Stations. This report, the first in a series of reports to be published annually, is primarily applicable to objectives 2, 3, and 4. The report presents the basic hydrologic data collected in two study areas during the 1969 water year (October 1, 1968, to September 30, 1969) and basic hydrologic data collected during part of the 1968 water year (April 5, 1968, to September 30, 1968). The locations of the two basins within the study area, Burton Creek and Hudson Creek, are shown on figure 1.

Texas↗

Effects of climate-related variability in storage on streamwater solute concentrations and fluxes in a small forested watershed in the Southeastern United States

Streamwater quality can be affected by climate-related variability in hydrologic state, which controls flow paths and affects biogeochemical processes. Thirty-one years of input/output solute fluxes at Panola Mountain Research Watershed, a small, forested, seasonally water-limited watershed near Atlanta, Georgia, were used to quantify the effects of climatic-related variability in storage on streamwater solute concentrations and fluxes. Streamwater fluxes were estimated for ten solutes from weekly and event sample concentrations using regression-based methods. The most pertinent storage attribute (current or antecedent watershed, shallow, and deep storage) for each solute was determined by fitting separate concentration relationships. The concentration-discharge relationships varied more for reactive solutes such as potassium, sulfate, and DOC and less for weathering products (base cations and dissolved silica) and conservative chloride. Many solutes exhibited higher concentrations when storage levels were lower or wetting up, which was likely the result of the concentrating effects of evapotranspiration and/or the buildup and flushing of weathering products associated with longer residence times. The impacts of storage modeling on annual fluxes varied by solute, ranging from about 5% (magnesium) to 52% (nitrate) as relative standard deviations, and sufficiently removed climate-related patterns observed in streamwater concentrations. Sulfate was particularly mobilized following growing season droughts but only if deep storage was sufficiently recharged, possibly indicating that sulfides in the deep storage pool were oxidized to sulfate during droughts and mobilized when re-wetted. The lack of streamwater sulfate response to 61% declines in atmospheric deposition indicates the importance of watershed biogeochemical processes on controls of streamwater export of sulfate. The approach of explicitly incorporating storage in the streamwater concentration modeling elucidated the effects of climate on streamwater water-quality and may provide insight into the effects of climatic change on future fluxes.

Georgia↗

Legacy data for a northern prairie grassland: Woodworth Study Area, North Dakota, 1963-89

Ecological data commonly become more valuable through time. Such legacy data provide baseline records of past biological, physical, and social information that provide historical perspective and are necessary for assessment of stasis or change. Legacy data collected at the Woodworth Study Area (WSA), a contiguous block of grasslands, croplands, and wetlands covering more than 1,000 hectares of the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, are cataloged and summarized in this study. The WSA is one of the longest researched grassland sites in the Upper Midwest. It has an extensive history of settlement, land use, and management that provides a deeper context for future research. The WSA data include long-term vegetation transect records, land use history, habitat management records, geologic information, wetland hydrology and chemistry information, and spatial images. Substantial parts of these data have not been previously reported. The WSA is representative of many other lands purchased by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in the Prairie Pothole Region from the 1930s to the 1970s; therefore, synthesized data from the WSA are broadly applicable to topics of concern in northern grasslands, such as increases in non-native plants, managing for biodiversity, and long-term effects of habitat management. New techniques are also described that were used to preserve these data for future analyses. The data preservation techniques are applicable to any project with data that should be preserved for 100 years or more.

North Dakota↗

Small anthropogenic landforms from past charcoal production control moisture dynamics and chemistry in northcentral Appalachian soils

Throughout the northeastern United States (U.S.) and Europe, relict charcoal hearths (RCHs) are regularly being discovered in proximity to furnaces once used for the extraction of metal from ore or quick-lime production; charcoal produced in hearths was used as a furnace fuel. Given previous research has shown that topographic and subsurface disturbance can be great when a hearth is constructed, we hypothesize that hearth construction alters surface hydrology and soil chemistry in environments in and near hearths. We used a landscape classification process to identify 6,758 hearths near furnaces at Greenwood and Pine Grove Furnace State Park, central and southcentral Pennsylvania, U.S. Two types of digital elevation model wetness indexes were used to quantify surface hydrology effects in and around hearths. Modeled wetness conditions were compared to field soil volumetric water content in RCHs near Greenwood Furnace State Park. Modeled wetness indexes indicate that RCH interiors are significantly wetter than RCH rim areas; RCHs are acting as a landscape moisture sink. Results also indicate that RCHs on slopes result in downslope drier conditions below RCHs. Field measured volumetric water content indicates that as distance from the center of the hearth increases, soil moisture significantly decreases. Geomorphic position was found to not be related to RCH wetness. Soil from RCHs, compared to nearby native soils, has significantly higher total C, a lower Mehlich 3 extractable acidity, higher Ca and P. No trend was evident with RCH soil chemistry and geomorphic position. The high frequency of RCH occurrence, in proximity to the furnace’s RCHs supported, suggests that RCHs today could locally be an important niche for understory flora and fauna. Further research could explore how RCHs might be affecting surrounding plant populations and how within RCH patterns, especially on hillslopes, might represent a distinctly different scale of physical and chemical variability.

Pennsylvania↗

In situ optical water-quality sensor networks - Workshop summary report

Advanced in situ optical water-quality sensors and new techniques for data analysis hold enormous promise for furthering scientific understanding of aquatic systems. These sensors measure important biogeochemical parameters for long deployments, enabling the capture of data at time scales over which they vary most meaningfully. The high-frequency, real-time water-quality data they generate provide opportunities for early warning of water-quality deterioration, trend detection, and science-based decision support. However, developing networks of optical sensors in freshwater systems that report reliable and comparable data across and between sites remains a challenge to the research and monitoring community. To address this, the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc. (CUAHSI) convened a joint 3-day workshop (June 8-10, 2011) at the National Conservation Training Center in Shepardstown, West Virginia, to explore ways to coordinate development of standards and applications for optical sensors, and improve handling, storing, and analyzing the continuous data they produce. The workshop brought together more than 60 scientists, program managers, and vendors from universities, government agencies, and the private sector. Several important outcomes emerged from the presentations and breakout sessions. There was general consensus that making intercalibrated measurements requires that both manufacturers and users better characterize and calibrate the sensors under field conditions. For example, the influence of suspended particles, highly colored water, and temperature on optical sensors remains poorly understood, but consistently accounting for these factors is critical to successful deployment and for interpreting results in different settings. This, in turn, highlights the lack of appropriate standards for sensor calibrations, field checks, and characterizing interferences, as well as methods for data validation, treatment, and analysis of resulting measurements. Participants discussed a wide range of logistical considerations for successful sensor deployments, including key physical infrastructure, data loggers, and remote-communication techniques. Tools to manage, assure, and control quality, and explore large streams of continuous water-quality data are being developed by the USGS, CUAHSI, and other organizations, and will be critical to making full use of these highfrequency data for research and monitoring.

Open-File Report↗

Ecosystem services of riparian restoration: A review of rock detention structures in the Madrean Archipelago Ecoregion

In northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States, limited water supplies and fragile landscapes jeopardize world-renowned biological diversity. Simple rock detention structures have been used to manage agricultural water for over a thousand years and are now being installed to restore ecohydrological functionality but with little scientific evidence of their success. The impacts, design, and construction of such structures has been debated among local restoration practitioners, management, and permitting agencies. This article presents archeological documentation, local contentions, and examples of available research assessments of rock detention structures in the Madrean Archipelago Ecoregion. A US Geological Survey study to quantify impacts of rock detention structures using remote-sensing analyses, hydrologic monitoring, vegetation surveys, and watershed modeling is discussed, and results rendered in terms of the critical restoration ecosystem services provided. This framework provides a means for comparing management actions that might directly or indirectly impact human populations and assessing tradeoffs between them.

Arizona, Chihuahua, New Mexico, Sonora↗

One-way coupling of an atmospheric and a hydrologic model in Colorado

This paper examines the accuracy of high-resolution nested mesoscale model simulations of surface climate. The nesting capabilities of the atmospheric fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University (PSU)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) were used to create high-resolution, 5-yr climate simulations (from 1 October 1994 through 30 September 1999), starting with a coarse nest of 20 km for the western United States. During this 5-yr period, two finer-resolution nests (5 and 1.7 km) were run over the Yampa River basin in northwestern Colorado. Raw and bias-corrected daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature time series from the three MM5 nests were used as input to the U.S. Geological Survey's distributed hydrologic model [the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)] and were compared with PRMS results using measured climate station data. The distributed capabilities of PRMS were provided by partitioning the Yampa River basin into hydrologic response units (HRUs). In addition to the classic polygon method of HRU definition, HRUs for PRMS were defined based on the three MM5 nests. This resulted in 16 datasets being tested using PRMS. The input datasets were derived using measured station data and raw and bias-corrected MM5 20-, 5-, and 1.7-km output distributed to 1) polygon HRUs and 2) 20-, 5-, and 1.7-km-gridded HRUs, respectively. Each dataset was calibrated independently, using a multiobjective, stepwise automated procedure. Final results showed a general increase in the accuracy of simulated runoff with an increase in HRU resolution. In all steps of the calibration procedure, the station-based simulations of runoff showed higher accuracy than the MM5-based simulations, although the accuracy of MM5 simulations was close to station data for the high-resolution nests. Further work is warranted in identifying the causes of the biases in MM5 local climate simulations and developing methods to remove them. ?? 2006 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗