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USGS1995

USGS global change research

The Earth's global environment--its interrelated climate, land, oceans, fresh water, atmospheric and ecological systems-has changed continually throughout Earth history. Human activities are having ever-increasing effects on these systems. Sustaining our environment as population and demands for resources increase requires a sound understanding of the causes and cycles of natural change and the effects of human activities on the Earth's environmental systems. The U.S. Global Change Research Program was authorized by Congress in 1989 to provide the scientific understanding necessary to develop national and international policies concerning global environmental issues, particularly global climate change. The program addresses questions such as: what factors determine global climate; have humans already begun to change the global climate; will the climate of the future be very different; what will be the effects of climate change; and how much confidence do we have in our predictions? Through understanding, we can improve our capability to predict change, reduce the adverse effects of human activities, and plan strategies for adapting to natural and human-induced environmental change.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2011

2010 bathymetric survey and digital elevation model of Corte Madera Bay, California

A high-resolution bathymetric survey of Corte Madera Bay, California, was collected in early 2010 in support of a collaborative research project initiated by the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission and funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The primary objective of the Innovative Wetland Adaptation in the Lower Corte Madera Creek Watershed Project is to develop shoreline adaptation strategies to future sea-level rise based upon sound science. Fundamental to this research was the development of an of an up-to-date, high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) extending from the subtidal environment through the surrounding intertidal marsh. We provide bathymetric data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and have merged the bathymetry with a 1-m resolution aerial lidar data set that was collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration during the same time period to create a seamless, high-resolution DEM of Corte Madera Bay and the surrounding topography. The bathymetric and DEM surfaces are provided at both 1 m and 10 m resolutions formatted as both X, Y, Z text files and ESRI Arc ASCII files, which are accompanied by Federal Geographic Data Committee compliant metadata.

California↗

USGS2019

Hydrogeologic framework of the Virginia Eastern Shore

The Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system of the Virginia Eastern Shore consists of upper, middle, and lower confined aquifers overlain by correspondingly named confining units and underlain by the Saint Marys confining unit. Miocene- to Pliocene-age marine-shelf sediments observed in 205 boreholes include medium- to coarse-grained sand and shells that compose the aquifers and fine-grained sand, silt, and clay that compose the confining units. The upper confining unit also includes fine-grained and organic-rich back-barrier and estuarine sediments of Pleistocene age. An overlying surficial aquifer is composed mostly of Pleistocene-age nearshore sand and gravel with smaller amounts of cobbles and boulders. In addition, Pleistocene-age sediments that fill three buried paleochannels are for the first time explicitly delineated here as distinct hydrogeologic units. Two aquifers are composed of medium- to coarse-grained fluvial sand and gravel, and an intervening confining unit is composed of fine-grained estuarine sand, silt, clay, and organic material. Aquifer and confining-unit sediments are also mixed with reworked marine-shelf sediments eroded from the sides of the paleochannels. Hydrogeologic units of the Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system generally dip eastward, are as much as several tens of feet thick, and have an undulating configuration possibly resulting from the underlying Chesapeake Bay impact crater. Aquifers and confining units are incised by the three paleochannels along an upward-widening and eastward-lengthening series of structural “windows.” Hydrogeologic units within mainstems and branching tributaries of the paleochannels dip southeastward parallel to slopes of the paleochannels, are as much as several tens of feet thick, and laterally abut the Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system along paleochannel sidewalls. The Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system is thereby hydraulically breached by the paleochannels to alternately create barriers to or conduits for groundwater flow. Results of previously documented aquifer tests at 58 wells indicate that transmissivity is generally greatest in young, shallow, and coarse-grained nearshore and fluvial sediments of the surficial aquifer and paleochannels. Transmissivity progressively decreases with depth in older, deeper, and finer grained marine-shelf sediments of the Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system, probably because they have undergone compaction as a result of greater overburden pressure over longer periods of time. Compiled chloride concentrations in samples from 330 wells generally increase downward, with most of the samples collected at altitudes above −300 feet and with most concentrations less than 250 milligrams per liter. The saltwater-transition zone has a broad trough-like shape aligned with the peninsula, being relatively shallow along the coastline and deeper along the central “spine.” Because movement of the saltwater is slow, the configuration largely reflects groundwater flow prior to widespread groundwater withdrawals. Fresh groundwater has leaked downward along deep parts of the saltwater-transition zone and leaked upward along shallower parts to discharge at the coast. The saltwater-transition zone also exhibits an anomalous ridge across the center of the peninsula. Groundwater levels indicate that the saltwater ridge formed primarily by the Exmore paleochannel acting as a large lateral collector drain. Groundwater levels were lowered, and the position of saltwater-transition zone was elevated, by a flow conduit that intercepted groundwater that otherwise would have flowed toward and discharged along the coastline. Nearly all freshwater on the Virginia Eastern Shore is supplied by groundwater withdrawals, which have lowered water levels, altered hydraulic gradients, and created a concern for saltwater intrusion. Previous characterizations of groundwater conditions that are relied on to manage groundwater development have been limited by a lack of hydrogeologic information, particularly data on buried paleochannels that are critical to safeguarding the groundwater supply. Using recently available expanded information, the U.S. Geological Survey undertook a study in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality during 2016–19 to develop an improved description of the groundwater system called a “hydrogeologic framework.” The hydrogeologic framework can aid water-supply planning and development by providing information on broad trends in aquifer configurations, hydraulic properties, and proximity to saltwater to avoid chloride contamination. Digital models to evaluate effects of groundwater withdrawals can also be improved with expanded data and capabilities to evaluate paleochannel hydraulic connections and the potential for saltwater movement. The hydrogeologic framework is limited by the nonuniform distribution of boreholes and the subjective delineation of aquifers and confining units, including those within paleochannels that are regarded as preliminary. The configuration of the saltwater-transition zone is also regarded as preliminary because of the nonuniform distribution of groundwater samples. Low well-sampling frequency precludes characterizing movement of the saltwater-transition zone. A monitoring strategy of sampling and possibly electromagnetic-induction well logging could be used to detect saltwater movement.

Virginia↗

USGS2020

Progress in natural capital accounting for ecosystems

Reversing the ongoing degradation of the planet's ecosystems requires timely and detailed monitoring of ecosystem change and uses. Yet, the System of National Accounts (SNA), first developed in response to the economic crisis of the 1930s and used by statistical offices worldwide to record economic activity (for example, production, consumption, and asset accumulation), does not make explicit either inputs from the environment to the economy or the cost of environmental degradation ( 1 , 2 ). Experimental Ecosystem Accounting (EEA), part of the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA), has been developed to monitor and report on ecosystem change and use, using the same accounting approach, concepts, and classifications as the SNA ( 3 ). The EEA is part of the statistical community's response to move SNA measurement “beyond gross domestic product (GDP).” With the first generation of ecosystem accounts now published in 24 countries, and with a push to finalize a United Nations (UN) statistical standard for ecosystem accounting by 2021, we highlight key advances, challenges, and opportunities.

Science↗

USGS2010

Estimation of selected seasonal streamflow statistics representative of 1930–2002 in West Virginia

Regional equations and procedures were developed for estimating seasonal 1-day 10-year, 7-day 10-year, and 30-day 5-year hydrologically based low-flow frequency values for unregulated streams in West Virginia. Regional equations and procedures also were developed for estimating the seasonal U.S. Environmental Protection Agency harmonic-mean flows and the 50-percent flow-duration values. The seasons were defined as winter (January 1-March 31), spring (April 1-June 30), summer (July 1-September 30), and fall (October 1-December 31). Regional equations were developed using ordinary least squares regression using statistics from 117 U.S. Geological Survey continuous streamgage stations as dependent variables and basin characteristics as independent variables. Equations for three regions in West Virginia-North, South-Central, and Eastern Panhandle Regions-were determined. Drainage area, average annual precipitation, and longitude of the basin centroid are significant independent variables in one or more of the equations. The average standard error of estimates for the equations ranged from 12.6 to 299 percent. Procedures developed to estimate the selected seasonal streamflow statistics in this study are applicable only to rural, unregulated streams within the boundaries of West Virginia that have independent variables within the limits of the stations used to develop the regional equations: drainage area from 16.3 to 1,516 square miles in the North Region, from 2.78 to 1,619 square miles in the South-Central Region, and from 8.83 to 3,041 square miles in the Eastern Panhandle Region; average annual precipitation from 42.3 to 61.4 inches in the South-Central Region and from 39.8 to 52.9 inches in the Eastern Panhandle Region; and longitude of the basin centroid from 79.618 to 82.023 decimal degrees in the North Region. All estimates of seasonal streamflow statistics are representative of the period from the 1930 to the 2002 climatic year.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2025

Potential risks of vegetation treatments to introduce and increase invasive annual grasses in rangelands of Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota— A science synthesis to inform National Environmental Policy Act analyses

The U.S. Geological Survey is working with Federal land management agencies to develop a series of planned structured science syntheses to support environmental effects analyses that agencies conduct under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). This report synthesizes science information relevant to environmental effects analyses concerned with potential increases in the distribution and abundance of invasive annual grasses (IAGs) from proposed vegetation treatments for habitat restoration. The focal environments for this synthesis are rangelands in the intermontane valleys of Montana and the northern Great Plains of Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The synthesis is organized to align with the standard elements of NEPA analyses and provides information on relevant scientific studies, data availability, analysis methods, and mitigation measures. We found that the likelihood of increasing IAGs from vegetation treatments depends on treatment type and environmental context. In sagebrush ecosystems of the focal region, prescribed fire often reduces or does not increase IAGs. Treatments that cause soil disturbances, such as mechanical removals of sagebrush or firebreak constructions, are more likely to increase IAGs than other treatments. Herbicides applied to reduce sagebrush cover have not increased the proportion of IAGs in the plant community. Temperature and precipitation have been strong factors in determining IAG responses to vegetation treatments in sagebrush ecosystems of the focal region, where more precipitation in spring and summer likely provides a competitive edge to native, perennial grasses more than winter annual grasses like Bromus tectorum L. (cheatgrass). In grasslands, prescribed fire often reduces IAGs, but effects depend on the abundance of native species and are often short lived. Mowing can increase or decrease IAGs in grassland ecosystems. Grassland site conditions, such as southeast-facing slopes, sandier or rockier sites, or lower native species cover or richness affect the likelihood of invasion by annual grasses. Maintaining adequate cover of perennial vegetation creates rangelands that are resistant and resilient to annual grass invasions. Managers can minimize invasion potential by focusing on treatment type, placement, and seasonal timing. Herbicides also can provide effective mitigation, especially in combination with other controls such as prescribed fire or grazing. This report can be incorporated by reference in NEPA documentation, included in a project record, or provide a general reference for understanding and identifying literature about increases in IAGs associated with vegetation treatments in rangelands in this focal region.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2020

Vulnerability of resource-users in Louisiana’s oyster fishery to environmental hazards

Knowledge of vulnerability provides the foundation for developing actions that minimize impacts on people while maximizing the sustainability of ecosystem goods and services. As a result, it is becoming increasingly important to determine how resource-dependent people are vulnerable to environmental hazards. This is particularly true in coastal Louisiana where the current era of rapid land loss has the potential to undermine oyster fisheries. Yet, little is known about how such environmental change might differentially impact resource-users and stakeholders. We examined social components of vulnerability to environmental hazards using indicators of susceptibility and adaptive capacity within the oyster fishery of Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana. Specifically, we used structured interviews to compare three resource-user roles: oyster fishers, oyster fishers/lease owners, and oyster lease owners only. Results indicated that oyster fishers/lease owners were highly dependent and thus susceptible to changes in the fishery due to high levels of occupational identity. The same people, however, were the most adaptable to change, which was reflected in their willingness to learn about new practices and evolve over time; higher susceptibility in this group was offset by an increased ability to adapt, cope, and respond to changes in the environment. In contrast to these findings, oyster fishers that did not own any portion of a lease or business in which they operated were bad at coping with change and frequently held negative or fatalistic views on financial planning. These attributes made them the most vulnerable to environmental hazards. Overall, the most vulnerable participants in the Terrebonne Parish oyster fishery were those with low to moderate levels of personal and financial buffers and trust, coupled with high occupational identity and a low motivation to change. Local policy actions that target these attributes are likely to be the best entry points to reducing vulnerability of stakeholders to hazards.

Louisianna↗

USGS2019

Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's Warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long-term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler ( Setophaga kirtlandii ), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population-level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long-term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.

Michigan↗

USGS2021

Continuous turbidity data used to compute constituent concentrations in the South Loup River, Nebraska, 2017–18

The South Loup River in central Nebraska has been impaired by bacteria since at least 2004, which has resulted in the river not meeting its intended use as a recreational waterway. As part of a strategy for reducing the bacterial load in the river, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Lower Loup Natural Resources District, made continuous estimates of Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) and nutrient concentrations during seasonal monitoring at the South Loup River at Saint Michael, Nebraska, during 2017–18. Continuous turbidity data were collected from mid-April through October in 2017 and 2018 and were paired with 35 co-occurring discrete water samples that were analyzed for E. coli , nutrients, and suspended solids. Surrogate models relating the discrete concentrations to the continuous turbidity data were developed using ordinary-least-squares regression and were evaluated for model performance and uncertainty. Although the model assumptions were met for E. coli , the imprecision of the E. coli model was considerably higher than the other constituents, probably because of measurement imprecision and greater sensitivity to environmental factors. Once the models were developed, the turbidity data were used to predict continuous constituent concentrations and corresponding prediction intervals, which were made available online as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System database. It is expected that results from these models will provide stakeholders with an understanding of constituent concentrations during the 2017–18 monitoring period and the results will also provide a good reference point for any future comparisons.

Nebraska↗

USGS2023

Environmental DNA as a tool for better understanding the distribution, abundance, and health of Atlantic and Pacific salmon

The development and application of approaches to detect and quantify environmental DNA (eDNA) have potential to improve our understanding of the distribution, abundance, and health of Atlantic Salmon Salmo salar and Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. Here, we review 61 articles focusing on eDNA applications pertaining to salmon occupying natural habitat and aquaculture facilities in the context of advances, opportunities, and challenges. Given recent advances, eDNA now serves as a useful tool for detecting Atlantic Salmon and Pacific salmon and understanding threats to the health of fish and their habitats. Opportunities exist to apply sensitive and minimally invasive eDNA approaches to detect fish and assess fish habitat, assess range expansions of salmon and salmon pathogens, and detect invasive species that may threaten salmon health and abundance. Near real-time eDNA detection and quantification approaches to inform fisheries management may be on the horizon. Challenges limiting the widespread application of eDNA approaches for informing salmon management include accounting for the many factors affecting detection and quantification of eDNA, limits of data for deriving inference, and expense. Through continued development and refinement, eDNA approaches are anticipated to become increasingly available to, and utilized by, managers of Atlantic Salmon and Pacific salmon fisheries.

Fisheries Magazine↗

USGS2008

Formulations for aircraft and airfield deicing and anti-icing: aquatic toxicity and biochemical oxygen demand

The Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) has sponsored research on environmental characteristics of aircraft and pavement deicers and anti-icers focusing primarily on biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and aquatic toxicity of formulated products and individual chemical components of formulations. This report presents a background of issues leading to this research, objectives of this document, and a description of the efforts and findings of this research. Except when the distinction among products is necessary for clarity, “deicer” will refer to aircraft-deicing fluids (ADFs), aircraft anti-icing fluids (AAFs), and pavement-deicing materials (PDMs) generally. The efforts of this project have included the following: A review of regulations and specifications related to the performance and environmental characteristics of deicer formulations A review of issues related to the impact that deicers have on aquatic systems and causes of those impacts Laboratory testing of current-use deicers to establish benchmark values for aquatic toxicity, BOD, and chemical oxygen demand (COD) A review of deicer formulations under development and their relevant performanceand environmental-related characteristics A review of operational and infrastructure considerations A synopsis of current analytical methods used in environmental characterization of airport deicing runoff A toxicity-based investigation of current-use deicers to determine components responsible for toxicity and identify component classes to focus a search for alternative components Identification of gaps in knowledge and data pertaining to the above topics

Report↗

USGS2021

Space matters: Host spatial structure and the dynamics of plague transmission

The development of models to elucidate the transmission pathways and dynamics of wildlife diseases remains challenging. Sylvatic plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis ( Yp ), is an infectious zoonotic disease that primarily affects wild rodents, including prairie dogs ( Cynomys spp.) in North America. Proposed transmission pathways for Yp include flea bites, direct contacts between hosts, and environmental reservoirs (e.g. soil, carcasses). We developed a spatially explicit, agent-based model of Yp transmission to explore the effects of alternative transmission pathways, different disease initiation mechanisms (host or fleas), parameter uncertainty, and spatial structure of hosts. A particularly novel aspect of our model was the integration of ecological models with traditional disease models. Specifically, we used estimates from spatial capture-recapture models to generate data-driven spatial distributions, densities, and contact rates to capture the spatial structure of prairie dogs. We simulated ~9 million scenarios across a wide range of parameter values and conducted sensitivity analyses to determine the most influential parameters on the number of flea-days (sum of the mean number of fleas on hosts each day of the simulation), number of newly infected hosts per day, the time to depopulation (<20 prairie dogs remaining), and the proportion of the prairie dog population remaining at the end of the simulation (after 150 days). When including spatial structure, we found the probability of transmission via environmental sources of Yp (i.e. carcasses) had the greatest influence on model results when Yp infection was initiated in prairie dog hosts, rather than in fleas. Conversely, the mechanism of transmission by fleas to prairie dogs had the greatest influence on model results when Yp infection was initiated in fleas (i.e. via introduction by carnivores, a migrant prairie dog, or other mammalian host). Uncertainty in parameter estimates, particularly those related to the transmission pathways of Yp, continue to hamper efforts to realistically model plague dynamics in wild rodents. Our results elucidate the complexity of the flea-plague-prairie dog system and reiterate the importance of research on Yp transmission mechanisms to provide a full understanding of this disease. Our results also emphasize the importance of realistic estimates of spatial structure for exploring transmission dynamics of wildlife diseases and provide a framework for generating a data-driven description of spatial structure.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2006

Streamstats: U.S. Geological Survey web application for streamflow statistics for Connecticut

Introduction An important mission of the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) is to provide information on streamflow in the Nation's rivers. Streamflow statistics are used by water managers, engineers, scientists, and others to protect people and property during floods and droughts, and to manage land, water, and biological resources. Common uses for streamflow statistics include dam, bridge, and culvert design; water-supply planning and management; water-use appropriations and permitting; wastewater and industrial discharge permitting; hydropower-facility design and regulation; and flood-plain mapping for establishing flood-insurance rates and land-use zones. In an effort to improve access to published streamflow statistics, and to make the process of computing streamflow statistics for ungaged stream sites easier, more accurate, and more consistent, the USGS and the Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI) developed StreamStats (Ries and others, 2004). StreamStats is a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based Web application for serving previously published streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for USGS data-collection stations, and computing streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for ungaged stream sites. The USGS, in cooperation with the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection and the Connecticut Department of Transportation, has implemented StreamStats for Connecticut.

Connecticut↗

USGS2006

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI): 5-year report

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) is an innovative, multidisciplinary program that began in 2000 in response to a congressional directive for the Department of the Interior to address the issue of amphibian declines in the United States. ARMI’s formulation was cross-disciplinary, integrating U.S. Geological Survey scientists from Biology, Water, and Geography to develop a course of action (Corn and others, 2005a). The result has been an effective program with diverse, yet complementary, expertise. ARMI’s approach to research and monitoring is multiscale. Detailed investigations focus on a few species at selected local sites throughout the country; monitoring addresses a larger number of species over broader areas (typically, National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges); and inventories to document species occurrence are conducted more extensively across the landscape. Where monitoring is conducted, the emphasis is on an ability to draw statistically defensible conclusions about the status of amphibians. To achieve this objective, ARMI has instituted a monitoring response variable that has nationwide applicability. At research sites, ARMI focuses on studying species/environment interactions, determining causes of observed declines, and developing new techniques to sample populations and analyze data. Results from activities at all scales are provided to scientists, land managers, and policymakers, as appropriate. The ARMI program and the scientists involved contribute significantly to understanding amphibian declines at local, regional, national, and international levels. Within National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges, findings help land managers make decisions applicable to amphibian conservation. For example, the National Park Service (NPS) selected amphibians as a vital sign for several of their monitoring networks, and ARMI scientists provide information and assistance in developing monitoring methods for this NPS effort. At the national level, ARMI has had major exposure at a variety of meetings, including a dedicated symposium at the 2004 joint meetings of the Herpetologists’ League, the American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists, and the Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles. Several principal investigators have brought international exposure to ARMI through venues such as the World Congress of Herpetology in South Africa in 2005 (invited presentation by Dr. Gary Fellers), the Global Amphibian Summit, sponsored by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and Wildlife Conservation International, in Washington, D.C., 2005 (invited participation by Dr. P.S. Corn), and a special issue of the international herpetological journal Alytes focused on ARMI in 2004 (edited by Dr. C.K. Dodd, Jr.). ARMI research and monitoring efforts have addressed at least 7 of the 21 Threatened and Endangered Species listed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (California red-legged frog [Rana draytonii], Chiricahua leopard frog [R. chiricahuensis], arroyo toad [Bufo californicus], dusky gopher frog [Rana sevosa], mountain yellow-legged frog [R. muscosa], flatwoods salamander [Ambystoma cingulatum], and the golden coqui [Eleutherodactylus jasperi]), and 9 additional species of concern recognized by the IUCN. ARMI investigations have addressed time-sensitive research, such as emerging infectious diseases and effects on amphibians related to natural disasters like wildfire, hurricanes, and debris flows, and the effects of more constant, environmental change, like urban expansion, road development, and the use of pesticides. Over the last 5 years, ARMI has partnered with an extensive list of government, academic, and private entities. These partnerships have been fruitful and have assisted ARMI in developing new field protocols and analytic tools, in using and refining emerging technologies to improve accuracy and efficiency of data handling, in conducting amphibian disease, malformation, and environmental effects research, and in implementing a network of monitoring and research sites. Accomplishments from these endeavors include more than 40 publications on amphibian status and trends, nearly 100 publications on amphibian ecology and causes of declines, and over 30 methodological publications. Several databases have emerged as a result of ARMI and its partnerships; one, a digital atlas of ranges for all U.S. amphibian species, was used by the IUCN to display amphibian distribution maps in the Global Amphibian Assessment Project. Given the scope of ARMI and the panoply of projects, findings have had implications for policy. Investigations that demonstrate amphibian declines or illuminate causes of declines provide valuable information about habitat management, environmental effects, mechanisms for the spread of disease, and human/amphibian interfaces. This information has been made available to land managers, scientists, educators, Congress and other policymakers, and the public. The support afforded ARMI by Congress has been influential in the program’s development and success. The value of ARMI’s efforts will continue to increase as we are able to extend our studies spatially and temporally to answer critical questions with more confidence. We are using ARMI’s resources efficiently and continuing to develop innovative mechanisms for leveraging resources for maximum effectiveness during challenging financial times. This report is a 5-year retrospective of the structure, methodology, progress, and contributions to the broader scientific community that have resulted from this national USGS program. We evaluate ARMI’s success to date, with regard to the challenges faced by the program and the strengths that have emerged. We chart objectives for the next 5 years that build on current accomplishments, highlight areas meriting further research, and direct efforts to overcome existing weaknesses.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2012

Mapping socio-environmentally vulnerable populations access and exposure to ecosystem services at the U.S.-Mexico borderlands

Socio-environmental vulnerable populations are often unrepresented in land-use planning yet have great potential for loss when exposed to changes in ecosystem services. Administrative boundaries, cultural differences, and language barriers increase the disassociation between land-use management and marginalized populations living in the U.S.–Mexico borderlands. This paper describes the development of a Modified Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Index (M-SEVI), using determinants from binational census and neighborhood data that describe levels of education, access to resources, migratory status, housing, and number of dependents, to provide a simplified snapshot of the region's populace that can be used in binational planning efforts. We apply this index at the SCW, located on the border between Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. For comparison, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool is concurrently applied to assess the provision of erosion- and flood control services over a 9-year period. We describe how this coupling of data can form the base for an ecosystem services assessment across political boundaries that can be used by land-use planners. Results reveal potential disparities in environmental risks and burdens throughout the binational watershed in residential districts surrounding and between urban centers. The M-SEVI can be used as an important first step in addressing environmental justice for binational decision-making.

Arizona↗

USGS2007

Tracking environmental dynamics and agricultural intensification in southern Mali

The Office de la Haute Vallée du Fleuve Niger (OHVN) zone in southern Mali is a small but important agricultural production region. Against a background of environmental degradation including decades of declining rainfall, soil erosion, and human pressure on forest resources, numerous farming communities stand out through the use of improved soil and water management practices that have improved agricultural and environmental conditions. Field surveys conducted in 1998–2001 indicated that environmental and agricultural conditions have improved in the past decade. In an effort to better quantify environmental trends, we conducted a study using medium- and high-resolution remotely sensed images from 1965 to 2001 in order to analyze land use and land cover trends in 21 village territories. The trends show clear indications of agricultural intensification and diversification among villages that have received assistance from the OHVN agricultural development agency. Some communities have improved environmental conditions by protecting their forest resources through community management actions. Four decades of remotely sensed images played a practical role in tracking and quantifying environmental and agricultural conditions over time.

Agricultural Systems↗

USGS2019

Multi-resource analysis: A proof of concept study of natural resource tradeoffs in the Piceance Basin, Colorado, using the net resources assessment (NetRA) decision support tool

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is developing a multi-resource analysis (MRA) line of products to inform land-use decision makers. Specifically, MRA products will integrate scientific information, include considerations for natural resource interrelations, and quantify the effects of resource management decisions in biophysical, economic, and societal terms. As part of the establishment of the MRA, the USGS, in collaboration with the University of New Mexico, has developed the Net Resources Assessment (NetRA) decision support tool. As a proof of concept analysis, the NetRA was applied to the Piceance basin in Colorado in a hypothetical example to illustrate how resource managers could use the NetRA to consider tradeoffs of natural resources among alternative development plans and land cover patterns within a geographic region. The NetRA is a policy-relevant approach to assess the availability of multiple natural resources. It is an analytical toolset that may be used to examine the spatiotemporal relations between development of energy and mineral resources and delivery of biological natural resources. The NetRA operates at multiple map scales and contains a set of integrated, compatible submodels with specific data requirements for natural resource stocks, engineering economics, biophysical, and ecological data for ecosystem services stocks, market prices, regulations, and nonmarket values. The NetRA includes an explicit process to consider the interdependence between development and conservation, which is a crucial consideration in land-management and land-use decisions. The NetRA is used to estimate an expected net resource value (NRV). The NRV is the expected, present value, economic benefit from the extraction of a resource (for example, natural gas) minus the total cost of production, which is the aggregation of the development, production, and social costs. Social costs include private costs plus any external costs. There can be external social benefits associated with natural gas production, such as increased demand for locally produced goods and increased employment in the local area through backward and forward linkages of natural gas production. The NRV is used to compare development outcomes (scenarios) from a range of exploration and development plans for cumulative energy production. The Piceance basin application of the NetRA uses the NRV to assess the tradeoff between continuous natural gas extraction and the effects to the local populations of Odocoileus hemionus (mule deer) and aquatic species and to consumptive water uses for an area the size and resolution of a USGS energy resource assessment unit. In the proof of concept simulation, the 2.9-square-mile-area of USGS oil and gas assessment unit 50200263 (Piceance basin continuous gas unit of the Mesaverde Total Petroleum System) was gridded into 588 cells. From this area, seven clusters with potential for development and three that cannot be developed were identified; the three clusters that cannot be developed were identified as wilderness study areas, areas of critical environmental concern, and national forests. On the basis of these criteria, there are 118 cells unsuitable for development in the oil and gas assessment unit: 84 are in national forests, 23 are areas of critical environmental concern, and 11 are wilderness study areas. The remaining cells in the oil and gas assessment unit can be developed on both private and public lands. Two scenarios were considered that are distinguished as plan 1 and plan 2. Plan 1 keeps the amount of land disturbance unchanged and limits the number of development locations to 140 grid cells for the production period, which constrains the amount of the energy resources available for development; the plan requires the usage of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) unsuitability criteria. Plan 2 also limits the number of development locations to 140 grid cells for the production period but provides a constant volume of energy production by increasing the density of well pads within the cells. The effects of plan 2 to the NRV when there are five wells per pad and five pads per square mile happen mostly in the first 5 years of development, even though the effects on the population of mule deer continue in later years. This outcome is the result of the upfront development and investment costs and the initial effect to the ecosystem services.

Colorado↗

USGS2013

Environmental DNA as a new method for early detection of New Zealand mudsnails (Potamopyrgus antipodarum)

Early detection of aquatic invasive species is a critical task for management of aquatic ecosystems. This task is hindered by the difficulty and cost of surveying aquatic systems thoroughly. The New Zealand mudsnail (Potamopyrgus antipodarum) is a small, invasive parthenogenic mollusk that can reach very high population densities and severely affects ecosystem functioning. To assist in the early detection of this invasive species, we developed and validated a highly sensitive environmental deoxyribonucleic acid (eDNA) assay. We used a dose–response laboratory experiment to investigate the relationship between New Zealand mudsnail density and eDNA detected through time. We documented that as few as 1 individual in 1.5 L of water for 2 d could be detected with this method, and that eDNA from this species may remain detectable for 21 to 44 d after mudsnail removal. We used the eDNA method to confirm the presence of New Zealand mudsnail eDNA at densities as low as 11 to 144 snails/m 2 in a eutrophic 5 th -order river. Combined, these results demonstrate the high potential for eDNA surveys to assist with early detection of a widely distributed invasive aquatic invertebrate.

Freshwater Science↗