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Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation planning efforts identified and prioritized areas for conservation based on the current environmental conditions, such as habitat quality, and assumed that conditions in conservation lands would be largely controlled by management actions (including no action). Climate change, however, will likely alter important system drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain recent historic conditions in conservation lands into the future. Climate change will also influence the future conservation potential of non-conservation lands, further complicating conservation planning. Therefore, there is a need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change on future environmental conditions. Congress recognized this important issue and authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC; http://nccw.usgs.gov/) in the Fiscal Year 2008. The NCCWSC will produce science that will help resource management agencies anticipate and adapt to climate change impacts to fish, wildlife, and their habitats. With the release of Secretarial Order 3289 on September 14, 2009, the mandate of the NCCWSC was expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot Project "Climate Change in the Southeastern U.S. and its Impacts on Bird Distributions and Habitats," (4) a sea-level rise impacts study envisioned jointly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and (5) two USGS sea-level rise impact assessment projects that address inundation hazards and provide probabilistic forecasts of coastal geomorphic change. The SERAP will expand on these existing projects and include the following tasks, which were initiated in summer 2009: * Regionally downscaled probabilistic climate-change projections * Integrated coastal assessment * Integrated terrestrial assessment * Multi-resolution assessment of potential climate change effects on biological resources: aquatic and hydrologic dynamics * Optimal conservation strategies to cope with climate change The SERAP seeks to formally integrate these tasks to aid conservation planning and design so that ecosystem management decisions can be optimized for providing desirable outcomes across a range of species and environments. The following chapters detail SERAP's efforts in providing a suite of regional climate, watershed, and landscape-change analyses and develop the interdisciplinary framework required for the biological planning phases of adaptive management and strategic conservation. The planning phase will include the identification of conservation alternatives, development of predictive models and decision support tools, and development of a template to address similar challenges and goals in other regions. The project teams will explore and develop ways to link the various ecological models arising from each component. The SERAP project team also will work closely with members of the LCCs and other partnerships throughout the life of the project to ensure that the objectives of the project meet resources mangers needs in the Southeast.

Open-File Report↗

Spatially explicit control of invasive species using a reaction-diffusion model

Invasive species, which can be responsible for severe economic and environmental damages, must often be managed over a wide area with limited resources, and the optimal allocation of effort in space and time can be challenging. If the spatial range of the invasive species is large, control actions might be applied only on some parcels of land, for example because of property type, accessibility, or limited human resources. Selecting the locations for control is critical and can significantly impact management efficiency. To help make decisions concerning the spatial allocation of control actions, we propose a simulation based approach, where the spatial distribution of the invader is approximated by a reaction–diffusion model. We extend the classic Fisher equation to incorporate the effect of control both in the diffusion and local growth of the invader. The modified reaction–diffusion model that we propose accounts for the effect of control, not only on the controlled locations, but on neighboring locations, which are based on the theoretical speed of the invasion front. Based on simulated examples, we show the superiority of our model compared to the state-of-the-art approach. We illustrate the use of this model for the management of Burmese pythons in the Everglades (Florida, USA). Thanks to the generality of the modified reaction–diffusion model, this framework is potentially suitable for a wide class of management problems and provides a tool for managers to predict the effects of different management strategies.

Ecological Modelling↗

Reservoir operational strategies for sustainable sand management in the Colorado River

Climate change and increasing societal demands for water pose challenges for the management of dam-regulated rivers. Management decisions impact the environment of these rivers, creating the need to balance societal needs with environmental conservation. Here we present a modeling framework that optimizes resource benefits within imposed water use goals for the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, where sandbars are a valued natural feature. The current sand-management paradigm utilizes controlled dam-release floods to build and maintain sandbars without exhausting the limited sand supplied by tributaries downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, which blocks all sand supplied from upriver. High monthly releases outside of controlled floods erode sandbars and cause net sand export from Grand Canyon, reducing the sand available to build sandbars. Releases are high in some months owing to the need to adjust flows to meet annual delivery targets, which can be updated throughout the year. Here, we present alternative strategies for operations that avoid high releases, while meeting water storage and delivery goals. We test these strategies using a simplified reservoir model which accounts for forecast uncertainty. We show how these strategies affect sand mass balance and sandbar size using previously developed models. Strategies optimal for sustainable sandbar building maintained sufficient reservoir elevations for implementing controlled floods, avoided high monthly releases by relaxing annual release constraints, and implemented controlled floods in fall immediately following tributary sand inputs. Coordinated modeling of reservoir operations and environmental resources is valuable for managers seeking to balance societal and environmental needs in regulated rivers worldwide.

Arizona↗

Efficacy of environmental DNA to detect and quantify Brook Trout populations in headwater streams of the Adirondack Mountains, New York

Environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis is rapidly evolving as a tool for monitoring the distributions of aquatic species. Detection of species’ populations in streams may be challenging because the persistence time for intact DNA fragments is unknown and because eDNA is diluted and dispersed by dynamic hydrological processes. During 2015, the DNA of Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis was analyzed from water samples collected at 40 streams across the Adirondack region of upstate New York, where Brook Trout populations were recently quantified. Study objectives were to evaluate different sampling methods and the ability of eDNA to accurately predict the presence and abundance of resident Brook Trout populations. Results from three-pass electrofishing surveys indicated that Brook Trout were absent from 10 sites and were present in low (<100 fish/0.1 ha), moderate (100–300 fish/0.1 ha), and high (>300 fish/0.1 ha) densities at 9, 11, and 10 sites, respectively. The eDNA results correctly predicted the presence and confirmed the absence of Brook Trout at 85.0–92.5% of the study sites; eDNA also explained 44% of the variability in Brook Trout population density and 24% of the variability in biomass. These findings indicate that eDNA surveys will enable researchers to effectively characterize the presence and abundance of Brook Trout and other species’ populations in headwater streams across the Adirondack region and elsewhere.

New York↗

The perpetual state of emergency that sacrifices protected areas in a changing climate

A modern challenge for conservation biology is to assess the consequences of policies that adhere to assumptions of stationarity (e.g. historic norms) in an era of global environmental change. Such policies may result in unexpected and surprising levels of mitigation given future climate change trajectories, especially as agriculture looks to protected areas to buffer against production losses during periods of environmental extremes. Here, we conduct a scenario impact assessment to determine the potential impact of climate change scenarios on the rates at which lands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands are authorized for emergency biomass removal. Grassland biomass on CRP lands is authorized for ‘emergency’ harvesting for agricultural use when precipitation for the last four months falls below 40 percent of the normal, or ‘historical’ mean, precipitation for that four-month period. We develop and analyze scenarios under the condition that policy will continue to operate under assumptions of stationarity, thereby authorizing emergency biomass harvesting solely as a function of precipitation departure from historic norms. Model projections show the historical likelihood of authorizing emergency biomass harvesting in any given year in the northern Great Plains was 33.28 ± 0.96%, according to long-term weather records. Emergency biomass harvesting became the norm (>50% of years) in the scenario reflecting continued increases in emissions and a decrease in growing season precipitation, and areas in the Great Plains with higher historical mean annual rainfall were disproportionately affected and experienced a greater increase in emergency biomass removal. Emergency biomass harvesting decreased only in the scenario reflecting rapid reductions in emissions. Our scenario impact analysis indicates that biomass from lands enrolled in the CRP will be used primarily as a buffer for agriculture in an era of climatic change, unless policy guidelines are adapted or climate change projections significantly depart from the current consensus.

Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyo↗

Is motivation important to brook trout passage through culverts?

Culverts can restrict movement of stream-dwelling fish. Motivation to enter and ascend these structures is an essential precursor for successful passage. However, motivation is challenging to quantify. Here, we use attempt rate to assess motivation of 447 brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) entering three culverts under a range of hydraulic, environmental, and biological conditions. A passive integrated transponder system allowed for the identification of passage attempts and success of individual fish. Attempt rate was quantified using time-to-event analysis allowing for time-varying covariates and recurrent events. Attempt rate was greatest during the spawning period, at elevated discharge, at dusk, and for longer fish. It decreased during the day and with increasing number of conspecifics downstream of the culvert. Results also show a positive correlation between elevated motivation and successful passage. This study enhances understanding of factors influencing brook trout motivation to ascend culverts and shows that attempt rate is a dynamic phenomenon, variable over time and among individuals. It also presents methods that could be used to investigate other species’ motivation to pass natural or anthropogenic barriers.

Quebec↗

Computational sustainability: Computing for a better world and a sustainable future

Computational sustainability aims to develop computational methods to help solve environmental, economic, and societal problems and thereby facilitate a path towards a sustainable future. Sustainability problems are unique in scale, impact, complexity, and richness, offering challenges but also opportunities for the advancement of the state of the art of computing and information science.

Communications of the ACM↗

Effects of low pH on the coral reef cryptic invertebrate communities near CO2 vents in Papua New Guinea

Small cryptic invertebrates (the cryptofauna) are extremely abundant, ecologically important, and species rich on coral reefs. Ongoing ocean acidification is likely to have both direct effects on the biology of these organisms, as well as indirect effects through cascading impacts on their habitats and trophic relationships. Naturally acidified habitats have been important model systems for studying these complex interactions because entire communities that are adapted to these environmental conditions can be analyzed. However, few studies have examined the cryptofauna because they are difficult to census quantitatively in topographically complex habitats and are challenging to identify. We addressed these challenges by using Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures (ARMS) for sampling reef-dwelling invertebrates >2 mm in size and by using DNA barcoding for taxonomic identifications. The study took place in Papua New Guinea at two reef localities, each with three sites at varying distances from carbon dioxide seeps, thereby sampling across a natural gradient in acidification. We observed sharp overall declines in both the abundance (34–56%) and diversity (42–45%) of organisms in ARMS under the lowest pH conditions sampled (7.64–7.75). However, the overall abundance of gastropods increased slightly in lower pH conditions, and crustacean and gastropod families exhibited varying patterns. There was also variability in response between the two localities, despite their close proximity, as one control pH site displayed unusually low diversity and abundances for all invertebrate groups. The data illustrate the complexity of responses of the reef fauna to pH conditions, and the role of additional factors that influence the diversity and abundance of cryptic reef invertebrates.

Milne Bay Province↗

U.S. Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center Science and Operational Plan

Climate change challenges many of the basic assumptions routinely used by conservation planners and managers, including the identification and prioritization of areas for conservation based on current environmental conditions and the assumption those conditions could be controlled by management actions. Climate change will likely alter important ecosystem drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain current environmental conditions into the future. Additionally, the potential for future conservation of non-conservation lands may be affected by climate change, which further complicates resource planning. Potential changes to ecosystem drivers, as a result of climate change, highlight the need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change. The U.S. Congress, recognized the potential effects of climate change and authorized the creation of the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) in 2008. The directive of the NCCWSC is to produce science that supports resource-management agencies as they anticipate and adapt to the effects of climate change on fish, wildlife, and their habitats. On September 14, 2009, U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Secretary Ken Salazar signed Secretarial Order 3289 (amended February 22, 2010), which expanded the mandate of the NCCWSC to address climate-change-related impacts on all DOI resources. Secretarial Order 3289 "Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America's Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources," established the foundation of two partner-based conservation science entities: Climate Science Centers (CSC) and their primary partners, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC). CSCs and LCCs are the Department-wide approach for applying scientific tools to increase the understanding of climate change, and to coordinate an effective response to its impacts on tribes and the land, water, ocean, fish and wildlife, and cultural-heritage resources that DOI manages. The NCCWSC is establishing a network of eight DOI CSCs (Alaska, Southeast, Northwest, North Central, Pacific Islands, Southwest, Northeast, and South Central) that will work with a variety of partners and stakeholders to provide resource managers the tools and information they need to help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The Southeast CSC, a federally led research collaboration hosted by North Carolina State University, was established in 2010. The Southeast CSC brings together the expertise of federal and university scientists to address climate-change priority needs of federal, state, non-governmental, and tribal resource managers. This document is the first draft of a science and operational plan for the Southeast CSC. The document describes operational considerations, provides the context for climate-change impacts in the Southeastern United States, and establishes six major science themes the Southeast CSC will address in collaboration with partners. This document is intended to be reevaluated and modified as partner needs change.

Open-File Report↗

Detection probabilities of Flathead Catfish in small Kansas impoundments

A primary challenge of Flathead Catfish Pylodictis olivaris management is uncertainty associated with sampling strategies and resulting ambiguity in population-level information. Assessment of impoundment and environmental conditions that affect detection probability may aid in reducing sample variance and benefit inferences regarding changes to Flathead Catfish populations. We sampled eight small impoundments in Kansas (37–114 surface ha) using low-frequency electrofishing in summer, 2021. We revisited sites nine times over three months using an occupancy modeling framework to estimate the influence of impoundment and environmental conditions on detection probability of Flathead Catfish. We employed an information theoretic approach and ranked models built with impoundment as a random effect and three environmental variables predicted to influence detection of Flathead Catfish in small impoundments. Detection probability across all populations was 0.526 (SE = 0.020) and was influenced by water temperature, mean depth of the impoundment, and proportion of impoundment sampled. Generally, detection probability increased with all measured variables. The inclusion of detection probability in assessments of Flathead Catfish in small impoundments can inform interpretation of catch-related metrics. Further, variable detection suggests collection of multiple samples during a defined sampling period might be more suitable for characterizing populations than a single sample.

Kansas↗

Kodiak brown bears

Brown bears ( Ursus arctos middendorffi ) on the Kodiak Archipelago are famous for their large size and seasonal concentrations at salmon streams. Sport hunting of Kodiak bears has been popular since World War II. Their value as captivating subjects to observe or photograph is a more recent development that is increasing rapidly; visitors from around the world come to experience brown bears on Kodiak, adding substantially to Alaska's economy. An equally important contribution of brown bears is their value as an indicator of ecosystem vitality. Despite high population numbers, Kodiak bears are vulnerable to the environmental effects that have seriously depleted brown bear populations in Europe and parts of North America (Cowan 1972; Servheen 1990). They are long-lived mammals that require large expanses of land to meet biological needs, and their low reproductive rate limits population recovery. Energy development, depletion of salmon resources, and recreational growth are factors that can adversely affect bears and, in doing so, signal a loss of environmental quality affecting many species. Management of Kodiak brown bears is directed at maintaining current density, distribution, and habitat-use patterns. This goal is challenged by growing levels of commercial and private use throughout the region. An immediate concern is cabin and lodge development on 121,500 ha (300,000 acres), formerly part of the Kodiak National Wildlife Refuge, that were deeded to Alaska Natives via the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act. Much of that Native-conveyed land is coastal or riparian habitat especially important to brown bears during summer and fall. Concurrently, recreational use of the Kodiak refuge is increasing about 10% annually (USFWS 1987). Sport fishing, bear photography, and deer and elk hunting often put bears and humans in direct conflict (Smith et al. 1989). Timber harvest on Afognak Island, uncertain trends of salmon populations due to natural or human-caused events (e.g., Exxon Valdez oil spill), and hydroelectric development (Smith and Van Daele 1990) could impose additional long-term effects on localized bear populations.

Alaska↗

Relevance of individual and environmental drivers of movement of Golden Eagles

An animal's movement is expected to be governed by an interplay between goals determined by its internal state and energetic costs associated with navigating through the external environment. Understanding this ecological process is challenging when an animal moves in two dimensions and even more difficult for birds that move in a third dimension. To understand the dynamic interaction between the internal state of an animal and the variable external environment, we evaluated hypotheses explaining association of different covariates of movement and the trade‐offs birds face as they make behavioural decisions in a fluctuating landscape. We used ~870 000 GPS telemetry data points collected from 68 Golden Eagles Aquila chrysaetos to test demographic, diel, topographic and meteorological hypotheses to determine (1) the probability that these birds would be in motion and (2), once in motion, their flight speed. A complex and sometimes interacting set of potential internal and external factors determined movement behaviour. There was good evidence that reproductive state, manifested as age, sex and seasonal effects, had a significant influence on the probability of being in motion and, to a lesser extent, on speed of motion. Likewise, movement responses to the external environment were often unexpectedly strong. These responses, to northness of slope, strength of orographic updraft and intensity of solar radiation, were regionally and temporally variable. In contrast to previous work showing the role of a single environmental factor in determining movement decisions, our analyses support the hypothesis that multiple factors simultaneously interact to influence animal movement. In particular they highlighted how movement is influenced by the interaction between the individual's internal reproductive state and the external environment, and that, of the environmental factors, topographic influences are often more relevant than meteorological influences in determining patterns of flight behaviour. Further disentangling of how these internal and externals states jointly affect movement will provide additional insights into the energetic costs of movement and benefits associated with achieving process‐driven goals.

California↗

Aquatic ecosystem metabolism as a tool in environmental management

Recent advances in high-frequency environmental sensing and statistical approaches have greatly expanded the breadth of knowledge regarding aquatic ecosystem metabolism - the measurement and interpretation of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER). Aquatic scientists are poised to take advantage of widely available datasets and freely-available modeling tools to apply functional information gained through ecosystem metabolism to better environmental management. Historically, several logistical and conceptual factors have limited the widespread application of metabolism in management settings. Benefitting from new instrumental and modeling tools, it is now relatively straightforward to extend routine monitoring of dissolved oxygen (DO) to dynamic measures of aquatic ecosystem function (GPP & ER) and key physical processes such as gas exchange with the atmosphere (G). We review the current approaches for using DO data in environmental management with a focus on the United States, but briefly describe management frameworks in Europe and Canada. We highlight new applications of diel DO data and metabolism in regulatory settings and explore how they can be applied to managing and monitoring ecosystems. We then review existing data types and provide a short guide for implementing field measurements and modeling of ecosystem metabolic processes using currently available tools. Finally, we discuss research needed to overcome current conceptual limitations of applying metabolism in management settings. Despite challenges associated with modeling metabolism in rivers and lakes, rapid developments in this field have moved us closer to utilizing real-time estimates of GPP, ER and G to improve the assessment and management of environmental change.

WIREs Water↗

Environmental models of mineral deposits- A state of the art

Although mineral deposits have been classified by their geologic and mineralogical characteristics for decades, the recognition that mineral deposits also could be classified by their environmental characteristics is relatively new. In the past 5 years, numerous advancements have been made in this subject area, building on the earlier work of economic geologists who classified geologic characteristics. Several different approaches to understanding the environmental behavior of mineral deposits and associated altered areas have been taken, ranging from wholesale assessments of large areas (millions of km 2 ) to detailed assessments of individual watersheds or individual mines. While these first attempts have succeeded in describing some of the environmental characteristics of ore deposits in a number of ways, many important “environmental variables” are not included in present descriptive models. For example, the models should be expanded in scope to include a more thorough treatment of climatic and ecoregional effects- embodying such physical environmental characteristics as precipitation, evaporation, temperature, and ground water-surface water interactions. More complete model descriptions will have applications to the determination of baselines and natural backgrounds in mined and unmined areas, as well as possible anticipated effects of new mining in a given area, and mitigation and remediation strategies. The challenge to geologists and geochemists is to incorporate a widely disparate set of physical and chemical characteristics of mineralized and altered zones at scales ranging from microscopic (sub-millimeter) to macroscopic (10’s to 100’s of kilometers). This paper presents an overview of the development of mineral deposit environmental models, the current state of the art, an evaluation of needed improvements, and expected advancements in this field.

Geologica Hungarica. Series geologica↗

Isothermal recombinant polymerase amplification and CRIPSR (CAS12A) assay detection of Renibacterium salmoninarum as an example for wildlife pathogen detection in environmental DNA samples

Improving rapid detection methods for pathogens is important for research as we collectively aim to improve the health of ecosystems globally. In the northern hemisphere, the success of salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) populations is vitally important to the larger marine, aquatic, and terrestrial ecosystems they inhabit. This has led to managers cultivating salmon in hatcheries and aquaculture to bolster their populations, but young salmon face many challenges, including diseases such as bacterial kidney disease (BKD). Early detection of the BKD causative agent, Renibacterium salmoninarum , is useful for managers to avoid outbreaks in hatcheries and aquaculture stocks to enable rapid treatment with targeted antibiotics. Isothermal amplification and CRIPSR-Cas12a systems may enable sensitive, relatively rapid, detection of target DNA molecules from environmental samples compared to quantitative PCR (qPCR) and culture methods. We used these technologies to develop a sensitive and specific rapid assay to detect R. salmoninarum from water samples using isothermal recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA) and an AsCas12a RNA-guided nuclease detection. The assay was specific to R. salmoninarum (0/10 co-occurring or closely related bacteria detected) and sensitive to 0.0128 pg/µL of DNA (approximately 20–40 copies/µL) within 10 min of Cas activity. This assay successfully detected R. salmoninarum environmental DNA in 14/20 water samples from hatcheries with known quantification for the pathogen via previous qPCR (70% of qPCR-positive samples). The RPA-CRISPR/AsCas12a assay had a limit of detection (LOD) of >10 copies/µL in the hatchery water samples and stochastic detection below 10 copies/µL, similar to but slightly higher than the qPCR assay. This LOD enables 37 C isothermal detection, potentially in the field, of biologically relevant levels of R. salmoninarum in water. Further research is needed to develop easy-to-use, cost-effective, sensitive RPA/CRISPR-AsCas12a assays for rapidly detecting low concentrations of wildlife pathogens in environmental samples.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases↗

Challenge theme 5: Current and future needs of energy and mineral resources in the Borderlands and the effects of their development: Chapter 7 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

Exploration and extraction activities related to energy and mineral resources in the Borderlands—such as coal-fired power plants, offshore drilling, and mining—can create issues that have potentially major economic and environmental implications. Resource assessments and development projects, environmental studies, and other related evaluations help to understand some of these issues, such as power plant emissions and the erosion/denudation of abandoned mine lands. Information from predictive modeling, monitoring, and environmental assessments are necessary to understand the full effects of energy and mineral exploration, development, and utilization. The exploitation of these resources can negatively affect human health and the environment, its natural resources, and its ecological services (air, water, soil, recreation, wildlife, etc.). This chapter describes the major energy and mineral issues of the Borderlands and how geologic frameworks, integrated interdisciplinary (geobiologic) investigations, and other related studies can address the anticipated increases in demands on natural resources in the region.

United States-Mexico Borderlands↗

Disturbance hydrology: Preparing for an increasingly disturbed future

This special issue is the result of several fruitful conference sessions on disturbance hydrology, which started at the 2013 AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco and have continued every year since. The stimulating presentations and discussions surrounding those sessions have focused on understanding both the disruption of hydrologic functioning following discrete disturbances, as well as the subsequent recovery or change within the affected watershed system. Whereas some hydrologic disturbances are directly linked to anthropogenic activities, such as resource extraction, the contributions to this special issue focus primarily on those with indirect or less pronounced human involvement, such as bark-beetle infestation, wildfire, and other natural hazards. However, human activities are enhancing the severity and frequency of these seemingly natural disturbances, thereby contributing to acute hydrologic problems and hazards. Major research challenges for our increasingly disturbed planet include the lack of continuous pre- and post-disturbance monitoring, hydrologic impacts that vary spatially and temporally based on environmental and hydroclimatic conditions, and the preponderance of overlapping or compounding disturbance sequences. In addition, a conceptual framework for characterizing commonalities and differences among hydrologic disturbances is still in its infancy. In this introduction to the special issue, we advance the fusion of concepts and terminology from ecology and hydrology to begin filling this gap. We briefly explore some preliminary approaches for comparing different disturbances and their hydrologic impacts, which provides a starting point for further dialogue and research progress.

Water Resources Research↗

Effects of population density and environmental conditions on life-history prevalence in a migratory fish

Individual variation in life-history traits can have important implications for the ability of populations to respond to environmental variability and change. In migratory animals, flexibility in the timing of life-history events, such as juvenile emigration from natal areas, can influence the effects of population density and environmental conditions on habitat use and population dynamics. We evaluated the functional relationships between population density and environmental covariates and the abundance of juveniles expressing different life-history pathways in a migratory fish, Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), in the Wenatchee River basin in Washington State, USA. We found that the abundance of younger emigrants from natal streams was best described by an accelerating or near-linear function of spawners, whereas the abundance of older emigrants was best described by a decelerating function of spawners. This supports the hypothesis that emigration timing varies in response to density in natal areas, with younger-emigrating life-history pathways comprising a larger proportion of emigrants when densities of conspecifics are high. We also observed positive relationships between winter stream discharge and abundance of younger emigrants, supporting the hypothesis that habitat conditions can also influence the prevalence of different life-history pathways. Our results suggest that early emigration, and a resultant increase in the use of downstream rearing habitats, may increase at higher population densities and with greater winter precipitation. Winter precipitation is projected to increase in this system due to climate warming. Characterizing relationships between life-history prevalence and environmental conditions may improve our understanding of species habitat requirements and is a first step in understanding the dynamics of species with diverse life-history strategies. As environmental conditions change—due to climate change, management, or other factors—resultant life-history changes are likely to have important demographic implications that will be challenging to predict when life-history diversity is not accounted for in population models.

Washington↗