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A comprehensive monitoring program for North American shorebirds

Anthropogenic changes to the biosphere, including widespread degradation and losses of habitats and ecosystems, are causing rapid and profound changes to bird and other wildlife populations throughout the world. Such changes have led to increasing risks and rates of extinction. As a consequence, information on how bird populations are changing is becoming increasingly important to wildlife conservationists and managers. Early detection of population change is crucial for setting wildlife planning and management priorities. For example, information on population size, population vulnerability, and population change has been central to international conservation strategies such as the Ramsar Convention, the Western Hemisphere (Bonn) Convention, and the Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network. Measuring population size or change is also crucial for evaluating the effectiveness of population management programs implemented by wildlife agencies both locally and regionally. Although the concept of determining population size is simple, practical difficulties can be enormous and costly to overcome. In the United States, 4 billion dollars will be spent in year 2000 to census the human population, possibly one of the most easily counted of all vertebrates. By contrast, the portion of the FY 2000 budget of the U.S. Department of the Interior allotted for tracking populations of all migratory birds (> 600 species) is less than 5 million dollars (.0125% of the human census figure). This falls far short of the amount required to provide adequate, science-based information about bird populations and population change to wildlife managers. The gap between current ability and need is especially noteworthy for shorebirds. There are 72 species, subspecies, or distinct populations of shorebirds in North America. Even though most of these have received less conservation attention than such groups as waterfowl, colonial waterbirds, or songbirds, recent independent evaluation of data collected for other purposes in the eastern United States and Canada during the 1970s and early 1980s showed that 16 of 26 species surveyed are apparently declining, some at rates exceeding 5% per year (Howe et al., 1989). Except for one increasing species, populations of the other 9 species were statistically unchanged over the time period analyzed. In most cases causes of shorebird population declines are poorly known. For some species, the declines may be part of natural population cycles. For others the changes may reflect deterioration of conditions on the nesting grounds, at migration stopover locations, in wintering zones, or combinations of these. Determining which of these scenarios is correct and what management actions, if any, are warranted will be possible only after implementing a comprehensive monitoring plan such as that described here

Report

Pollinator conservation and climate science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Introduction Ecosystems—whether agricultural, urban, or natural—depend on pollinators, great and small. Pollinators in the form of bees, birds, butterflies, bats, and even moths provide vital, but often invisible services, from contributing to biodiverse terrestrial wildlife and plant communities to supporting healthy watersheds. Pollinator declines worldwide have been noted as land-use and climate changes occur on the landscape. This is alarming because up to 75 percent of crop species that are important for human food production depend on pollinators for production. Biodiversity of pollinators in the United States includes more than 4,000 species of insects, birds, and mammals. Pollinator species in the United States are in crisis based on broad-scale changes in land-use and climate. The Committee on the Status of Pollinators in North America summarized active and passive management alternatives to benefit pollinators and reduce their decline. Because assessment of pollinators in the United States has historically lagged behind other regions of the world, the Committee challenged the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to develop conservation plans, for pollinators, including quantification of the effects of climate change. As an example of the immediate need to focus efforts on pollinator conservation, Inouye and others cited the USFWS’s 2017 listing of the rusty-patched bumble bee ( Bombus affinis ) as Endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) of 1973. Strategies are developed to accomplish pollinator conservation goals and the USGS is contributing scientific expertise toward those goals.

Fact Sheet

Spatial and temporal patterns in population trends and burrow usage of burrowing owls in North America

Many researchers have suggested that abundance of Burrowing Owls ( Athene cunicularia ) has declined in many portions of their breeding range, but a thorough review of their population trends over time is lacking. Published population trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey program suggested that Burrowing Owl populations in the US have declined over the past 60 yr, but the declines were not considered significant until 2014. However, accurate trend estimates and the statistical significance of those estimates were hampered by low relative abundance of owls. Moreover, many authors have suggested that eradication of burrowing animals is a major cause of Burrowing Owl declines, because burrows dug by burrowing animals are a critical resource for Western Burrowing Owls ( A. cunicularia hypugaea ). Despite this, we currently lack a range-wide summary of the burrowing animals on which Western Burrowing Owls depend. To help fill these two information gaps, my objectives were to: (1) use Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data to examine geographic patterns in population trends of Burrowing Owls throughout their breeding range in the USA, and (2) use past studies to provide the first summary of the spatial extent to which Western Burrowing Owls rely on the suite of burrowing animals throughout their breeding range. Significantly more BBS routes in the US show declining counts of owls than show increasing or stable counts, and the declines were most apparent prior to 1995. Counts of Burrowing Owls declined most precipitously on the northern edge and southern edge of the owl's US breeding range. Western Burrowing Owls primarily use black-tailed prairie dog ( Cynomys ludovicianus ) burrows in the eastern portion of their breeding range, whereas the diversity of burrowing species on which the owls depend is much greater in the western and central portions of their breeding range. Burrowing owl declines have been most apparent in portions of their range where they rely primarily on Richardson's ground squirrels ( Urocitellus richardsonii ), California ground squirrels ( Otospermophilus beecheyi ), black-tailed prairie dogs, and American badgers ( Taxidea taxus ).

Journal of Raptor Research

Bird migration patterns in the arid southwest-Final report

To ensure full life-cycle conservation, we need to understand migrant behavior en route and how migrating species use stopover and migration aerohabitats. In the Southwest, birds traverse arid and mountainous landscapes in migration. Migrants are known to use riparian stopover habitats; we know less about how migrant density varies across the Southwest seasonally and annually, and how migrants use other habitat types during migratory stopover. Furthermore, we lack information about migrant flight altitudes, speeds, and directions of travel, and how these patterns vary seasonally and annually across the Southwest. Using weather surveillance radar data, we identified targets likely dominated by nocturnally migrating birds and determined their flight altitudes, speeds, directions over ground, and variations in abundance. Migrating or foraging bats likely are present across the region in some of these data, particularly in central Texas. We found that migrants flew at significantly lower altitudes and significantly higher speeds in spring than in fall. In all seasons migrants maintained seasonally appropriate directions of movement. We detected significant differences in vertical structure of migrant densities that varied both geographically within seasons and seasonally within sites. We also found that in fall there was a greater and more variable passage of migrants through the central part of the borderlands (New Mexico and west Texas); in spring there was some suggestion of greater and more variable passage of migrants in the eastern borderlands (central and south Texas). Such patterns are consistent with the existence of at least two migration systems through western North America and the use of different migration routes in spring and fall for at least some species. Using radar data and satellite land cover data, we determined the habitats with which migrants are associated during migration stopover. There were significant differences in bird densities among habitat types at all sites in at least one season. Upland forest habitat in parts of Arizona and New Mexico supported high migrant densities, especially in fall. Developed habitats in areas with little upland forest habitat also supported high migrant densities. Scrub/shrub and grassland habitats supported low to intermediate migrant densities, but because these habitat types dominate the region, they may support large numbers of migratory birds. This may be especially true for species that do not use forested habitats during migration. Target identity remains a challenge for radar-based studies. Presence of bats in the data complicates interpretation of some observations, particularly from central Texas. Based on our results it is simplistic to: (1) consider the arid west as a largely inhospitable landscape in which there are only relatively small oases of habitat that provide the resources needed by all migrants; (2) think of western riparian and upland forest habitat as supporting the majority of migrants in all cases; or (3) consider a particular habitat type unimportant migrant stopover habitat based solely on migrant densities.

Open-File Report

Autumn migration and wintering areas of Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus nesting on the Kola Peninsula, northern Russia

Four female Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus breeding on the Kola Peninsula, Russia, were fitted with satellite-received transmitters in 1994. Their breeding home ranges averaged 1175 (sd = ±714) km 2 , and overlapped considerably. All left their breeding grounds in September and migrated generally south-west along the Baltic Sea. The mean travel rate for three falcons was 190 km/day. Two Falcons wintered on the coasts of France and in southern Spain, which were, respectively, 2909 and 4262 km from their breeding sites. Data on migration routes suggested that Falcons took a near-direct route to the wintering areas. No prolonged stopovers were apparent. The 90% minimum convex polygon winter range of a bird that migrated to Spain encompassed 213 km 2 ( n = 54). The area of the 50% minimum convex polygon was 21.5 km 2 ( n = 29). Data from this study agree with others from North America that show that Falcons breeding in a single area do not necessarily follow the same migratory path southward and do not necessarily use the same wintering grounds.

Kola Peninsula

A systematic review of potential habitat suitability for the jaguar Panthera onca in central Arizona and New Mexico, USA

In April 2019, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) released its recovery plan for the jaguar Panthera onca after several decades of discussion, litigation and controversy about the status of the species in the USA. The USFWS estimated that potential habitat, south of the Interstate-10 highway in Arizona and New Mexico, had a carrying capacity of c. six jaguars, and so focused its recovery programme on areas south of the USA–Mexico border. Here we present a systematic review of the modelling and assessment efforts over the last 25 years, with a focus on areas north of Interstate-10 in Arizona and New Mexico, outside the recovery unit considered by the USFWS. Despite differences in data inputs, methods, and analytical extent, the nine previous studies found support for potential suitable jaguar habitat in the central mountain ranges of Arizona and New Mexico. Applying slightly modified versions of the USFWS model and recalculating an Arizona-focused model over both states provided additional confirmation. Extending the area of consideration also substantially raised the carrying capacity of habitats in Arizona and New Mexico, from six to 90 or 151 adult jaguars, using the modified USFWS models. This review demonstrates the crucial ways in which choosing the extent of analysis influences the conclusions of a conservation plan. More importantly, it opens a new opportunity for jaguar conservation in North America that could help address threats from habitat losses, climate change and border infrastructure.

Arizona, New Mexico

Prevalence and genetic diversity of haematozoa in South American waterfowl and evidence for intercontinental redistribution of parasites by migratory birds

To understand the role of migratory birds in the movement and transmission of haematozoa within and between continental regions, we examined 804 blood samples collected from eleven endemic species of South American waterfowl in Peru and Argentina for infection by Haemoproteus , Plasmodium , and/or Leucocytozono blood parasites. Infections were detected in 25 individuals of six species for an overall apparent prevalence rate of 3.1%. Analysis of haematozoa mitochondrial DNA revealed twelve distinct parasite haplotypes infecting South American waterfowl, four of which were identical to lineages previously observed infecting ducks and swans sampled in North America. Analysis of parasite mitochondrial DNA sequences revealed close phylogenetic relationships between lineages originating from waterfowl samples regardless of continental affiliation. In contrast, more distant phylogenetic relationships were observed between parasite lineages from waterfowl and passerines sampled in South America for Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon , suggesting some level of host specificity for parasites of these genera. The detection of identical parasite lineages in endemic, South American waterfowl and North American ducks and swans, paired with the close phylogenetic relationships of haematozoa infecting waterfowl on both continents, provides evidence for parasite redistribution between these regions by migratory birds.

International Journal for Parasitology: Parasites

Band reporting probablilities of mallards, American black ducks, and wood ducks in eastern North America

Estimates of band reporting probabilities are used for managing North American waterfowl to convert band recovery probabilities into harvest probabilities, which are used to set harvest regulations. Band reporting probability is the probability that someone who has shot and retrieved a banded bird will report the band. This probability can vary relative to a number of factors, particularly the inscription on the band and the ease with which it can be reported. Other factors, such as geographic reporting region, and species and sex of the bird may also play a role. We tested whether reporting probabilities of wood ducks ( Aix sponsa ) and American black ducks (black ducks; Anas rubripes ) differed from those of mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and whether band reporting varied geographically or by the sex of the banded bird. In the analysis of spatially comparable wood duck and mallard data, a band reporting probability of 0.73 (95% CI = 0.67–0.78) was appropriate for use across species, sex, and reporting region within the United States. In the black duck–mallard comparison, the band reporting probability of black ducks in Eastern Canada (0.50, 95% CI = 0.44–0.57) was lower than in the Eastern United States (0.73, 95% CI = 0.62–0.83). These estimates reflected an increase in overall band reporting probability following the addition of a toll-free telephone number to band inscriptions. Lower reporting in Eastern Canada may be because of cultural, linguistic, or logistical barriers.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Sixty-fifth supplement to the American Ornithological Society’s check-list of North American birds

This is the 24th supplement since publication of the 7th edition of the Check-list of North American Birds ( American Ornithologists’ Union [AOU] 1998 ). It summarizes decisions made between April 25, 2023 and April 30, 2024 by the American Ornithological Society’s (formerly American Ornithologists’ Union) Committee on Classification and Nomenclature—North and Middle America. The Committee has continued to operate in the manner outlined in the 42nd Supplement ( Banks et al. 2000 ). During the past year Oscar Johnson joined the committee, and J. V. Remsen, Jr. and Kevin Winker left the committee.

Ornithology

Examination of multiple working hypotheses to address reproductive failure in reintroduced Whooping Cranes

Understanding multiple challenges that restrict conservation success is a central task of applied ecology, especially when resources are limited and actions are expensive, such as with reintroduction programs. Simultaneous consideration of multiple hypotheses can expedite identification of factors that most limit conservation success. Since 2001, reintroduction of a migratory population of Whooping Cranes ( Grus americana ) has been under way in eastern North America. Hatching success, however, has been extremely low. In our study area, in and near Necedah National Wildlife Refuge in central Wisconsin, USA, we simultaneously tested 3 hypotheses explaining poor hatching success: harassment of incubating birds by black flies (Simuliidae), effects of captivity, and inexperience of breeders. When black flies were experimentally suppressed, hatching probability doubled. Daily nest survival for Whooping Cranes was strongly and negatively related to an index of black fly abundance, particularly of Simulium annulus . Daily nest survival was negatively but only weakly related to the number of generations that ancestors of breeding Whooping Cranes had been in captivity and was not related to nesting experience. We also examined whether Whooping Cranes were nesting later to avoid stress from black flies. Phenology shifted earlier with more growing degree days and greater nesting experience and was only weakly related to year. Overall, improved hatching success did not lead to better reproductive success. Although effects of black flies on hatching success can be mitigated through management, such actions would not be adequate to generate satisfactory population growth. Recognition of this limitation was hastened through experimentation.

Wisconsin

Interactions and impacts of domesticated animals on cranes in agriculture

Affiliations of most cranes to humans and agriculture means they often interact with a variety of domestic animals. Those interactions can be beneficial or neutral when domestic animal densities and their impact on wetland or grassland systems are low to moderate, as found in more traditional agricultural practices. The most common interaction is with grazers, primarily domestic ungulates such as cattle, horses, and sheep. Cranes can benefit from the rapid recycling of grassland nutrients, maintenance of open areas, and invertebrate foods that grazers facilitate. Examples of the close interactions among cranes and grazers are found in South Africa, Central Eurasia, China, India, and North America. Overgrazing and direct disturbances from domestic livestock are usually detrimental to cranes and interact with other factors such as altered wetland hydrology, fire, and changing climate. Cranes are most likely to interact with domestic birds in wetlands (ducks and geese) or farm areas (poultry) where they are attracted to areas where the domestic birds are being fed and maintained in large open areas. Risks of disease transmission between domestic birds and cranes are the greatest concern. Dogs associated with humans and agricultural activities are generally a threat where cranes are raising their chicks nearby.

Book chapter

Using grazing to manage herbaceous structure for a heterogeneity-dependent bird

Grazing management recommendations often sacrifice the intrinsic heterogeneity of grasslands by prescribing uniform grazing distributions through smaller pastures, increased stocking densities, and reduced grazing periods. The lack of patch-burn grazing in semi-arid landscapes of the western Great Plains in North America requires alternative grazing management strategies to create and maintain heterogeneity of habitat structure (e.g., animal unit distribution, pasture configuration), but knowledge of their effects on grassland fauna is limited. The lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ), an imperiled, grassland-obligate, native to the southern Great Plains, is an excellent candidate for investigating effects of heterogeneity-based grazing management strategies because it requires diverse microhabitats among life-history stages in a semi-arid landscape. We evaluated influences of heterogeneity-based grazing management strategies on vegetation structure, habitat selection, and nest and adult survival of lesser prairie-chickens in western Kansas, USA. We captured and monitored 116 female lesser prairie-chickens marked with very high frequency (VHF) or global positioning system (GPS) transmitters and collected landscape-scale vegetation and grazing data during 2013–2015. Vegetation structure heterogeneity increased at stocking densities ≤0.26 animal units/ha, where use by nonbreeding female lesser prairie-chickens also increased. Probability of use for nonbreeding lesser prairie-chickens peaked at values of cattle forage use values near 37% and steadily decreased with use ≥40%. Probability of use was positively affected by increasing pasture area. A quadratic relationship existed between growing season deferment and probability of use. We found that 70% of nests were located in grazing units in which grazing pressure was <0.8 animal unit months/ha. Daily nest survival was negatively correlated with grazing pressure. We found no relationship between adult survival and grazing management strategies. Conservation in grasslands expressing flora community composition appropriate for lesser prairie-chickens can maintain appropriate habitat structure heterogeneity through the use of low to moderate stocking densities (<0.26 animal units/ha), greater pasture areas, and site-appropriate deferment periods. Alternative grazing management strategies (e.g., rest-rotation, season-long rest) may be appropriate in grasslands requiring greater heterogeneity or during intensive drought. Grazing management favoring habitat heterogeneity instead of uniform grazing distributions will likely be more conducive for preserving lesser prairie-chicken populations and grassland biodiversity.

Kansas

Evaluation of breeding distribution and chronology of North American scoters

North America's scoter species are poorly monitored relative to other waterfowl. Black Melanitta americana , surf M. perspicillata , and white-winged M. deglandi scoter abundance and trend estimates are thus uncertain in many parts of these species' ranges. The most extensive source of waterfowl abundance and distribution data in North America is the Waterfowl breeding population and habitat survey (WBPHS). Although the WBPHS effectively monitors most species, both its timing and geographic coverage may preclude accurate scoter monitoring. Therefore, our goal was to better define when and where scoters breed to help interpret survey results and optimize potential supplemental survey efforts for scoters. We integrated satellite telemetry tracking data from scoters marked at multiple molting, staging, breeding, and wintering areas along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts to quantify continent-wide breeding chronology and distribution. We also examined possible drivers of variation in timing of arrival, length of stay, and departure at nesting locations. We documented a northwest to southeast distribution of estimated breeding sites across Alaska and Canada. On average, scoters arrived at nest sites on 1 June. Surf scoters and Pacific black scoters arrived earliest and departed earliest. Pacific-wintering black and white-winged scoters began breeding earlier than Atlantic-wintering birds. Additionally, birds arrived at nesting locations earlier in years with earlier snowmelt, and later snowmelt reduced lengths of stay for males. Breeding chronology also varied by age group, with adults arriving earlier than subadults. Our study is the first to comprehensively describe spatial variation in timing of breeding of both Atlantic and Pacific populations of all three scoter species across North America. Our results increase our understanding of how current surveys enumerate scoters and will inform possible supplemental efforts to improve continental monitoring of scoter populations.

Wildlife Biology

Assessing the sensitivity of avian species abundance to land cover and climate

Climate projections for the Midwestern United States predict southerly climates to shift northward. These shifts in climate could alter distributions of species across North America through changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation), or through climate-induced changes on land cover. Our objective was to determine the relative impacts of land cover and climate on the abundance of five bird species in the Central United States that have habitat requirements ranging from grassland and shrubland to forest. We substituted space for time to examine potential impacts of a changing climate by assessing climate and land cover relationships over a broad latitudinal gradient. We found positive and negative relationships of climate and land cover factors with avian abundances. Habitat variables drove patterns of abundance in migratory and resident species, although climate was also influential in predicting abundance for some species occupying more open habitat (i.e., prairie warbler, blue-winged warbler, and northern bobwhite). Abundance of northern bobwhite increased with winter temperature and was the species exhibiting the most significant effect of climate. Models for birds primarily occupying early successional habitats performed better with a combination of habitat and climate variables whereas models of species found in contiguous forest performed best with land cover alone. These varied species-specific responses present unique challenges to land managers trying to balance species conservation over a variety of land covers. Management activities focused on increasing forest cover may play a role in mitigating effects of future climate by providing habitat refugia to species vulnerable to projected changes. Conservation efforts would be best served focusing on areas with high species abundances and an array of habitats. Future work managing forests for resilience and resistance to climate change could benefit species already susceptible to climate impacts.

Ecosphere

Delineating and identifying long-term changes in the whooping crane (Grus americana) migration corridor

Defining and identifying changes to seasonal ranges of migratory species is required for effective conservation. Historic sightings of migrating whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) have served as sole source of information to define a migration corridor in the Great Plains of North America (i.e., Canadian Prairies and United States Great Plains) for this endangered species. We updated this effort using past opportunistic sightings from 1942–2016 ( n = 5,055) and more recent (2010–2016) location data from 58 telemetered birds ( n = 4,423) to delineate migration corridors that included 50%, 75%, and 95% core areas. All migration corridors were well defined and relatively compact, with the 95% core corridor averaging 294 km wide, although it varied approximately ±40% in width from 170 km in central Texas to 407 km at the international border of the United States and Canada. Based on historic sightings and telemetry locations, we detected easterly movements in locations over time, primarily due to locations west of the median shifting east. This shift occurred from northern Oklahoma to central Saskatchewan at an average rate of 1.2 km/year (0.3–2.8 km/year). Associated with this directional shift was a decrease in distance of locations from the median in the same region averaging -0.7 km/year (-0.3–-1.3 km/year), suggesting a modest narrowing of the migration corridor. Changes in the corridor over the past 8 decades suggest that agencies and organizations interested in recovery of this species may need to modify where conservation and recovery actions occur. Whooping cranes showed apparent plasticity in their migratory behavior, which likely has been necessary for persistence of a wetland-dependent species migrating through the drought-prone Great Plains. Behavioral flexibility will be useful for whooping cranes to continue recovery in a future of uncertain climate and land use changes throughout their annual range.

PLoS ONE

Ocean-atmosphere forcing of centennial hydroclimatic variability in the Pacific Northwest

Reconstructing centennial timescale hydroclimate variability during the late Holocene is critically important for understanding large-scale patterns of drought and their relationship with climate dynamics. We present sediment oxygen isotope records spanning the last two millennia from 10 lakes, as well as climate model simulations, indicating that the Little Ice Age was dry relative to the Medieval Climate Anomaly in much of the Pacific Northwest of North America. This pattern is consistent with observed associations between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Northern Annular Mode and drought as well as with proxy-based reconstructions of Pacific ocean-atmosphere variations over the past 1000 years. The large amplitude of centennial variability indicated by the lake data suggests that regional hydroclimate is characterized by longer-term shifts in ENSO-like dynamics, and that an improved understanding of the centennial timescale relationship between external forcing and drought conditions is necessary for projecting future hydroclimatic conditions in western North America.

Pacific Northwest

Population and harvest dynamics of midcontinent sandhill cranes

Sandhill cranes ( Antigone canadensis ) inhabiting the midcontinent of North America have been hunted since the 1960s under management goals of maintaining abundance, retaining geographic distribution, and maximizing sustainable harvest. Some biologists have raised concerns regarding harvest sustainability because sandhill cranes have lower reproductive rates than other game birds. We summarized demographic information in an age-structured matrix model to better understand population dynamics and harvest. Population indices and recovered harvest since the early 1980s suggest midcontinent sandhill cranes have experienced an average long-term annual growth of 0.9%; meanwhile, harvest has increased 1.8% annually. We found that adult survival and recruitment rates estimated from field data required modest adjustments (1-3%) so that model-derived growth rates matched growth estimated from a long-term survey (0.887 adult survival and 0.199 females per breeding female). Considering 0.9% long-term annual growth, sandhill cranes could be harvested at a rate of 6.6% if harvest was additive to natural mortality (assumed to be 0.05) or 11.3% if harvest and natural mortality was compensatory. Life-history characteristics for long-lived organisms and demographic evidence suggested that hunter harvest was primarily additive. Differential harvest rates of segments of midcontinent sandhill cranes derived from differential exposure to hunting suggested potentially unsustainable harvest for greater sandhill cranes ( A. c. tabida ) from 2 breeding segments. Overall, demographic evidence suggests that the harvest of midcontinent sandhill cranes has been managed sustainably. Monitoring activities that reduce nuisance variation and estimate vital and harvest rates by subspecies would support continued management of sandhill cranes that are of great interest to hunters and bird watchers.

Nebraska

The aerosphere as a network connector of organisms and their diseases

Aeroecological processes, especially powered flight of animals, can rapidly connect biological communities across the globe. This can have profound consequences for evolutionary diversification, energy and nutrient transfers, and the spread of infectious diseases. The latter is of particular consequence for human populations, since migratory birds are known to host diseases which have a history of transmission into domestic poultry or even jumping to human hosts. In this chapter, we present a scenario under which a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strain enters North America from East Asia via post-molting waterfowl migration. We use an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the movement and disease transmission among 10 6 generalized waterfowl agents originating from ten molting locations in eastern Siberia, with the HPAI seeded in only ~10 2 agents at one of these locations. Our ABM tracked the disease dynamics across a very large grid of sites as well as individual agents, allowing us to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of change in virulence of the HPAI infection as well as waterfowl host susceptibility to the disease. We concurrently simulated a 12-station disease monitoring network in the northwest USA and Canada in order to assess the potential efficacy of these sites to detect and confirm the arrival of HPAI. Our findings indicated that HPAI spread was initially facilitated but eventually subdued by the migration of host agents. Yet, during the 90-day simulation, selective pressures appeared to have distilled the HPAI strain to its most virulent form (i.e., through natural selection), which was counterbalanced by the host susceptibility being conversely reduced (i.e., through genetic predisposition and acquired immunity). The monitoring network demonstrated wide variation in the utility of sites; some were clearly better at providing early warnings of HPAI arrival, while sites further from the disease origin exposed the selective dynamics which slowed the spread of the disease albeit with the result of passing highly virulent strains into southern wintering locales (where human impacts are more likely). Though the ABM presented had generalized waterfowl migration and HPAI disease dynamics, this exercise demonstrates the power of such simulations to examine the extremely large and complex processes which comprise aeroecology. We offer insights into how such models could be further parameterized to represent HPAI transmission risks as well as how ABMs could be applied to other aeroecological questions pertaining to individual-based connectivity.

Book chapter