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USGS2026

Resilience thinking for human-wildlife coexistence: Bridging dynamic systems, archetypes, and transformations

As human activities and wildlife increasingly overlap in the Anthropocene, conventional conservation paradigms focused on land-sparing are shifting toward strategies that support human–wildlife coexistence. However, achieving sustainable coexistence is often hindered by a limited understanding of the dynamic social–ecological processes that drive integrated human–wildlife systems. This Special Issue explores “resilience thinking” as a scientific framework to address these knowledge gaps. By bridging sustainability and wildlife sciences, we examine how concepts such as adaptive capacity, feedback loops, system archetypes, and tipping points can illuminate the conditions that facilitate stable coexistence or lead to persistent conflict. Through diverse global case studies ranging from carnivore management in Europe to primate interactions in Indonesia, contributions highlight how societal perceptions, governance, and co-adaptation shape system trajectories. Ultimately, we argue that fostering durable coexistence requires moving beyond incremental adaptation toward transformative governance that centers on equity, relationality, and proactive management.

Ambio↗

USGS2017

Multi-model comparison highlights consistency in predicted effect of warming on a semi-arid shrub

A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance, and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi-model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species. To evaluate the climate sensitivity of A. tridentata , we developed four predictive models, two based on empirically derived spatial and temporal relationships, and two that applied mechanistic approaches to simulate sagebrush recruitment and growth. This approach enabled us to produce an aggregate index of climate change vulnerability and uncertainty based on the level of agreement between models. Despite large differences in model structure, predictions of sagebrush response to climate change were largely consistent. Performance, as measured by change in cover, growth, or recruitment, was predicted to decrease at the warmest sites, but increase throughout the cooler portions of sagebrush's range. A sensitivity analysis indicated that sagebrush performance responds more strongly to changes in temperature than precipitation. Most of the uncertainty in model predictions reflected variation among the ecological models, raising questions about the reliability of forecasts based on a single modeling approach. Our results highlight the value of a multi-model approach in forecasting climate change impacts and uncertainties and should help land managers to maximize the value of conservation investments.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2020

A latent process model approach to improve the utility of indicator species

The state of an ecosystem is governed by dynamic biotic and abiotic processes, which can only be partially observed. Costs associated with measuring each component limit the feasibility of comprehensive assessments of target ecosystems. Instead, indicator species are recommended as a surrogate index. While this is an attractive concept, indicator species have rarely proven to be an effective tool for monitoring ecosystems and informing management decisions. One deficiency in the existing theoretical development of indicator species may be overcome with the incorporation of latent (i.e. unobservable) states. Advancements in quantitative ecological models allow for latent‐state models to be tested empirically, facilitating the robust evaluation and practical use of indicator species for ecosystem science and management. Here, we extend the existing conceptual models of indicator species to include a direct relationship between an indicator species, ecosystem change drivers and latent processes and variables. Our approach includes explicit consideration of important estimation uncertainty and narrows the range of values a latent variable may take by relating it to measurable attribute(s) of an indicator species. We demonstrate the utility of this approach by relating a commonly cited indicator species, the red‐backed salamander Plethodon cinereus , to a typical latent process of interest – ecosystem health.

Oikos↗

USGS2023

Decision analysis to advance environmental sustainability

Decision analysis provides a robust framework for complex decisions related to environmental sustainability and conservation, including for energy and water, fisheries and wildlife management, agriculture, and climate change response. The complexities of these problems stem from their large scope and scale, which leads to multiple decision makers, stakeholders, rightsholders, and other entities with potentially competing objectives. These problems often are time limited (e.g., urgent action is required to prevent species’ extinction), involve management interventions over long time scales and delayed responses to management (deep uncertainty), and are impeded by limited resources (funding, capacity, etc.). In this Special Issue on “Decision Analysis to Advance Environmental Sustainability,” we present five case studies of applications of decision analysis to complex problems in environmental sustainability and conservation. These case studies incorporate multiple objectives related to ecological and environmental sustainability, economic and social concerns, and logistics of implementation. They showcase a wide range of tools and applications to these problems. We also provide suggestions for new avenues of research and application of decision analysis to problems of environmental sustainability and conservation, including how to incorporate other decision-making tools into decision analysis processes, how to broaden the reach of decision analysis to other sustainability problems, how to incorporate more stakeholders and rightsholders into the decision process, the potential to incorporate new technology into these processes, identifying more creative alternatives, how to secure more funding, ways to move from decision to action, and how to move beyond status quo to make big transitions necessary to achieve sustainability.

Decision Analysis↗

USGS2010

Surveys for presence of Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa): background information and field methods

The Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) is the most aquatic of the native frogs in the Pacific Northwest. The common name derives from the pattern of black, ragged-edged spots set against a brown or red ground color on the dorsum of adult frogs. Oregon spotted frogs are generally associated with wetland complexes that have several aquatic habitat types and sizeable coverage of emergent vegetation. Like other ranid frogs native to the Northwest, Oregon spotted frogs breed in spring, larvae transform in summer of their breeding year, and adults tend to be relatively short lived (3-5 yrs). Each life stage (egg, tadpole, juvenile and adult) has characteristics that present challenges for detection. Breeding can be explosive and completed within 1-2 weeks. Egg masses are laid in aggregations, often in a few locations in large areas of potential habitat. Egg masses can develop, hatch, and disintegrate in <2 weeks during warm weather. Tadpoles can be difficult to identify, have low survival, and spend most of their 3-4 months hidden in vegetation or flocculant substrates. Juveniles and adults are often difficult to capture and can spend summers away from breeding areas. Moreover, a substantial portion of extant populations are of limited size (<100 breeding adults), and field densities of all life stages are often low. An understanding of the biology of the species and use of multiple visits are thus important for assessing presence of Oregon spotted frogs. This report is meant to be a resource for USDA Region 6 Forest Service (FS) and OR/WA Bureau of Land Management (BLM) personnel tasked with surveying for the presence of Oregon spotted frogs. Our objective was to summarize information to improve the efficiency of field surveys and increase chances of detection if frogs are present. We include overviews of historical and extant ranges of Oregon spotted frog. We briefly summarize what is known of Oregon spotted frog habitat associations and review aspects of behavior and ecology that are likely to affect detectability in the field. We summarize characteristics that can help differentiate Oregon spotted frog life stages from other northwestern ranid frogs encountered during surveys. Appendices include examples of data collection formats and a protocol for disinfecting field gear.

Interagency Special Status / Sensitive Species Pro↗

USGS2022

Community-powered urban stream restoration: A vision for sustainable and resilient urban ecosystems

Urban streams can provide amenities to people living in cities, but those benefits are reduced when streams become degraded, potentially even causing harm (disease, toxic compounds, etc.). Governments and institutions invest resources to improve the values and services provided by urban streams; however, the conception, development, and implementation of such projects may not include meaningful involvement of community members and other stakeholders. Consequently, project objectives may be misaligned with community desires and needs, and projects may fail to achieve their goals. In February 2020, the 5 th Symposium on Urbanization and Stream Ecology, an interdisciplinary meeting held every 3 to 5 y, met in Austin, Texas, USA, to explore new approaches to urban stream projects, including ways to maximize the full range of potential benefits by better integrating community members into project identification and decision making. The symposium included in-depth discussion about 4 nearby field case studies, participation of multidisciplinary urban stream experts from 5 continents, and input from the Austin community. Institutional barriers to community inclusion were identified and analyzed using real-world examples, both from the case studies and from the literature, which clarified disparities in power, equity, and values. Outcomes of the symposium have been aggregated into a vision that challenges the present institutional approach to urban stream management and a set of strategies to systematically address these barriers to improve restoration solutions. Integrating community members and other stakeholders throughout the urban restoration process, and a transparent decision-making process to resolve divergent objectives, can help identify appropriate goals for realizing both the ecological and social benefits of stream restoration.

Texas↗

USGS2018

Evaluating relationships between native fishes and habitat in streams affected by oil and natural gas development

Oil and natural gas (ONG) development can affect aquatic ecosystems through water contamination, water withdrawals and disturbance of soil and vegetation (surface disturbance) from infrastructure development. Research on how these potential sources of watershed and aquatic ecosystem impairment can affect fish assemblages is limited. Fish–habitat relationships were evaluated across stream sites experiencing differing levels of ONG development. Colorado River cutthroat trout, Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus (Cope), and mottled sculpin, Cottus bairdii Girard, presence and abundance were associated with habitat conditions predominantly found in the less disturbed streams, such as higher proportion of shrub cover, greater stream depths and gravel substrate. Mountain sucker, Catostomus platyrhynchus (Cope), appeared to be a habitat generalist and was able to persist in a wide range of conditions, including degraded sites. Natural resource managers can use habitat preferences of these fish species to establish the development plans that mitigate negative effects of ONG development by protecting the aquatic habitats they rely upon.

Wyoming↗

USGS2013

Biological nitrogen fixation: rates, patterns and ecological controls in terrestrial ecosystems

New techniques have identified a wide range of organisms with the capacity to carry out biological nitrogen fixation (BNF)—greatly expanding our appreciation of the diversity and ubiquity of N fixers—but our understanding of the rates and controls of BNF at ecosystem and global scales has not advanced at the same pace. Nevertheless, determining rates and controls of BNF is crucial to placing anthropogenic changes to the N cycle in context, and to understanding, predicting and managing many aspects of global environmental change. Here, we estimate terrestrial BNF for a pre-industrial world by combining information on N fluxes with 15 N relative abundance data for terrestrial ecosystems. Our estimate is that pre-industrial N fixation was 58 (range of 40–100) Tg N fixed yr −1 ; adding conservative assumptions for geological N reduces our best estimate to 44 Tg N yr −1 . This approach yields substantially lower estimates than most recent calculations; it suggests that the magnitude of human alternation of the N cycle is substantially larger than has been assumed.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2023

Biocrusts indicators of livestock grazing effects on soil stability in sagebrush steppe: A case study from a long-term experiment in the northern Great Basin

Biocrusts are sensitive to changes in livestock grazing intensity in arid rangelands and may be useful indicators of ecosystem functions, particularly soil properties like soil stability, which may suggest the potential for soil erosion. We compared biocrust community composition and surface soil stability in a big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) steppe rangeland in the northwestern Great Basin in several paired sites, with or without long-term cattle grazing exclusion, and similar soils (mostly sandy loams), climate, and vegetation composition. We found that livestock grazing was associated with both lower surface soil stability and cover of several biocrust morphogroups, especially lichens, compared with sites with long-term livestock exclusion. Surface soil stability did not modify the effects of grazing on most biocrust components via interactive effects. Livestock grazing effects on total biocrust cover were partially mediated by changes in surface soil stability. Though lichens were more sensitive to grazing disturbance, our results suggest that moss (mostly Tortula ruralis in this site) might be a more readily observable indicator of grazing-related soil stability change in this area due to their relatively higher abundance compared with lichens (moss: mean, 8.5% cover, maximum, 96.1%, lichens: mean, 1.0% cover, maximum, 14.1%). These results highlight the potential for biocrust components as sensitive indicators of change in soil-related ecosystem functions in sagebrush steppe rangelands. However, further research is needed to identify relevant indicator groups across the wide range of biocrust community composition associated with site environmental characteristics, variable grazing systems, other rangeland health metrics, and other disturbance types such as wildfire.

Northern Great Basin↗

USGS2001

Dispersal ecology of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl.) in its native environment as related to Swedish forestry

Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl.) covers extensive areas of the mountains of western North America. It has evolved into four subspecies, each adapted to slightly different environmental conditions. All are adapted to reproduce following fire. Subspecies latifolia is the most extensive and economically important in North America. Serotiny is common in this subspecies, but trees bearing nonserotinous cones can be found in most stands, sometimes constituting more that 70% of the trees. Cone crops are produced yearly and seed loss to seed predators, insects and diseases are minimal. Germination and establishment occurs across a broad range of conditions allowing lodgepole pine to grow on poor sites as well as highly productive sites. These characteristics give lodgepole pine the ability to be highly invasive in new areas of suitable habitat.

North America↗

USGS2022

Dry forest decline is driven by both declining recruitment and increasing mortality in response to warm, dry conditions

Aim: Anticipating when and where changes in species' demographic rates will lead to range shifts in response to changing climate remains a major challenge. Despite evidence of increasing mortality in dry forests across the globe in response to drought and warming temperatures, the overall impacts on the distribution of dry forests are largely unknown because we lack comparable large-scale data on tree recruitment rates. Here, our aim was to develop range-wide population models for dry forest tree species (pinyon pine and juniper), quantifying both mortality and recruitment, to better understand where and under what conditions species range contractions are occurring. Location: Western United States. Major taxa studied: Two pinyon pine ( Pinus spp . ) and three juniper ( Juniperus spp . ) species. Methods: We developed range-wide demographic models for five species using forest inventory data from across the western United States and estimated population trends and climate vulnerability. Results: We find that four of the five species are declining in parts of their range, with Pinus edulis having the largest proportion of populations declining (24%). Population vulnerability increases with aridity and temperature, with up to ~50% of populations declining in the warmest and driest conditions. Mortality and recruitment were both essential to explaining where populations are declining. Main conclusions: Our results suggest that dry forest species are undergoing an active range shift driven by both changing recruitment and mortality, and that increasing temperatures and drought threaten the long-term viability of many of these species in their current range. While four of the five species examined were experiencing some declines, P. edulis is currently most vulnerable. Management actions such as reducing tree density may be able to mitigate some of these impacts. The framework we present to estimate range-wide demographic rates can be applied to other species to determine where range contractions are most likely.

Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, New Me↗

USGS2015

Trends and natural variability of North American spring onset as evaluated by a new gridded dataset of spring indices

Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous United States. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and the results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from 20.8 to 21.6 days decade21, while first bloom index trends are between20.4 and 21.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal time scales. Finally, there is some potential for successful subseasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.

Journal of Climate↗

USGS1999

Digital mining claim density map for federal lands in Arizona: 1996

This report describes a digital map generated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to provide digital spatial mining claim density information for federal lands in Arizona as of March 1997. Mining claim data is earth science information deemed to be relevant to the assessment of historic, current, and future ecological, economic, and social systems. There is no paper map included in this Open-File report. In accordance with the Federal Land Policy and Management Act of 1976 (FLPMA), all unpatented mining claims, mill, and tunnel sites must be recorded at the appropriate BLM State office. BLM maintains a cumulative computer listing of mining claims in the MCRS database with locations given by meridian, township, range, and section. A mining claim is considered closed when the claim is relinquished or a formal BLM decision declaring the mining claim null and void has been issued and the appeal period has expired. All other mining claims filed with BLM are considered to be open and actively held. The digital map (figure 1.) with the mining claim density database available in this report are suitable for geographic information system (GIS)-based regional assessments at a scale of 1:100,000 or smaller.

Arizona↗

USGS1999

Digital mining claim density map for federal lands in Utah: 1996

This report describes a digital map generated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to provide digital spatial mining claim density information for federal lands in Utah as of March 1997. Mining claim data is earth science information deemed to be relevant to the assessment of historic, current, and future ecological, economic, and social systems. There is no paper map included in this Open-File report. In accordance with the Federal Land Policy and Management Act of 1976 (FLPMA), all unpatented mining claims, mill, and tunnel sites must be recorded at the appropriate BLM State office. BLM maintains a cumulative computer listing of mining claims in the MCRS database with locations given by meridian, township, range, and section. A mining claim is considered closed when the claim is relinquished or a formal BLM decision declaring the mining claim null and void has been issued and the appeal period has expired. All other mining claims filed with BLM are considered to be open and actively held. The digital map (figure 1.) with the mining claim density database available in this report are suitable for geographic information system (GIS)-based regional assessments at a scale of 1:100,000 or smaller.

Utah↗

USGS1999

Digital mining claim density map for federal lands in California: 1996

This report describes a digital map generated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to provide digital spatial mining claim density information for federal lands in California as of March 1997. Mining claim data is earth science information deemed to be relevant to the assessment of historic, current, and future ecological, economic, and social systems. There is no paper map included in this Open-File report. In accordance with the Federal Land Policy and Management Act of 1976 (FLPMA), all unpatented mining claims, mill, and tunnel sites must be recorded at the appropriate BLM State office. BLM maintains a cumulative computer listing of mining claims in the MCRS database with locations given by meridian, township, range, and section. A mining claim is considered closed when the claim is relinquished or a formal BLM decision declaring the mining claim null and void has been issued and the appeal period has expired. All other mining claims filed with BLM are considered to be open and actively held. The digital map (figure 1.) with the mining claim density database available in this report are suitable for geographic information system (GIS)-based regional assessments at a scale of 1:100,000 or smaller.

California↗

USGS1999

Digital mining claim density map for federal lands in New Mexico: 1996

This report describes a digital map generated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to provide digital spatial mining claim density information for federal lands in New Mexico as of March 1997. Mining claim data is earth science information deemed to be relevant to the assessment of historic, current, and future ecological, economic, and social systems. There is no paper map included in this Open-File report. In accordance with the Federal Land Policy and Management Act of 1976 (FLPMA), all unpatented mining claims, mill, and tunnel sites must be recorded at the appropriate BLM State office. BLM maintains a cumulative computer listing of mining claims in the MCRS database with locations given by meridian, township, range, and section. A mining claim is considered closed when the claim is relinquished or a formal BLM decision declaring the mining claim null and void has been issued and the appeal period has expired. All other mining claims filed with BLM are considered to be open and actively held. The digital map (figure 1.) with the mining claim density database available in this report are suitable for geographic information system (GIS)-based regional assessments at a scale of 1:100,000 or smaller.

New Mexico↗

USGS2025

The continued decline of the Palila (Loxioides bailleui) on Mauna Kea, Island of Hawaiʻi

Palila ( Loxioides bailleui ) are critically endangered Hawaiian honeycreepers specializing on māmane ( Sophora chrysophylla ) seeds and restricted to Mauna Kea volcano on the Island of Hawaiʻi. Recently, the population was estimated to decline by 89% between 1998 and 2021, despite decades of ungulate removal, fence construction, māmane regeneration, fire suppression, and predator control. To inform managers with the most recent update on the status and trends of the Palila population, we analyzed annual bird survey data collected using point-transect distance sampling since 1998, including new annual survey data from 2022, 2023, and 2024. Prior to analysis, we predicted the population trajectory would change between 2021 and 2024 because of continued management actions promoting habitat recovery. We used distance sampling, log-linear regression, and state-space modeling to produce the new estimates and analyze trends across the time series. The 2022 population estimate was 367 to 742 birds (95% confidence interval; point estimate: 545), the lowest in recorded history. The 2023 and 2024 estimates of 374 to 842 birds (point estimate: 596) and 412 to 970 birds (point estimate: 666) were the second and third lowest in our time series, respectively. Our estimates for years before 2022 show population fluctuations between 4000 to 6800 birds from 1998 to 2005, then a steep decline through 2010. For the next decade, abundance fluctuated around 1000 birds, before declining again in 2021 to less than 700 birds. From 1998 to 2024, the population declined by more than 90%, or 205 birds per year, with 100% statistical support for an overall downward trend, despite significant management efforts and research. The greatest threats facing the Palila, if familiar, are not being eliminated swiftly enough to promote their recovery. The currently small and range-limited population is vulnerable to future climate-related events such as drought and fire. Continued monitoring can help to assess the response of Palila to adaptive management actions and changing environmental conditions.

Hawaii↗

USGS2013

Does seeding after wildfires in rangelands reduce erosion or invasive species?

Mitigation of ecological damage caused by rangeland wildfires has historically been an issue restricted to the western United States. It has focused on conservation of ecosystem function through reducing soil erosion and spread of invasive plants. Effectiveness of mitigation treatments has been debated recently. We reviewed recent literature to conduct a meta-analysis of seeding after wildfires to determine if seedings may (1) protect ecosystems against soil erosion and (2) reduce invasion or abundance of undesirable nonnative plant species. Effectiveness of postfire seedings was examined in 8 erosion and 19 invasive species cases. Seeding has little effect on erosion during the first year after fire and is highly dependent upon initial establishment and coverage of species in successive years. Among all seeding cases, 28% reduced, 67% were neutral, and 5% increased invasive species abundance. Older seedings were more likely to show reductions in invasives than younger seedings. Seedings with high plant establishment were more likely to reduce invasives than those with low establishment. Studies are needed that examine (1) frequency of adequate establishment of postfire seedings and causal factors of success or failure, (2) long-term impacts of seeding along a range of initial establishment and concomitant plant coverage over time as it relates to erosion and abundance of invasive plant species, and (3) auxiliary treatments designed to increase likelihood of germination and establishment given the inevitable variability of environmental conditions. These studies would aid land managers in deciding when postfire treatments are required and their likely level of success.

Restoration Ecology↗