USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Nature Climate Change”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 451 records · Page 25Linked to original sources

Incorporating climate change into invasive species management: Insights from managers

Invasive alien species are likely to interact with climate change, thus necessitating management that proactively addresses both global changes. However, invasive species managers’ concerns about the effects of climate change, the degree to which they incorporate climate change into their management, and what stops them from doing so remain unknown. Therefore, we surveyed natural resource managers addressing invasive species across the U.S. about their priorities, concerns, and management strategies in a changing climate. Of the 211 managers we surveyed, most were very concerned about the influence of climate change on invasive species management, but their organizations were significantly less so. Managers reported that lack of funding and personnel limited their ability to effectively manage invasive species, while lack of information limited their consideration of climate change in decision-making. Additionally, managers prioritized research that identifies range-shifting invasive species and native communities resilient to invasions and climate change. Managers also reported that this information would be most effectively communicated through conversations, research summaries, and meetings/symposia. Despite the need for more information, 65% of managers incorporate climate change into their invasive species management through strategic planning, preventative management, changing treatment and control, and increasing education and outreach. These results show the potential for incorporating climate change into management, but also highlight a clear and pressing need for more targeted research, accessible science communication, and two-way dialogue between researchers and managers focused on invasive species and climate change.

Biological Invasions↗

The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards

Accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and changing storm patterns will increasingly expose barrier islands to coastal hazards, including flooding, erosion, and rising groundwater tables. We assess the exposure of Cape Lookout National Seashore, a barrier island system in North Carolina (USA), to projected SLR and storm hazards over the twenty-first century. We estimate that with 0.5 m of SLR, 47% of current subaerial barrier island area would be flooded daily, and the 1-year return period storm would flood 74%. For 20-year return period storms, over 85% is projected to be flooded for any SLR. The modelled groundwater table is already shallow (< 2 m deep), and while projected to shoal to the land surface with SLR, marine flooding is projected to overtake areas with emergent groundwater. Projected shoreline retreat reaches an average of 178 m with 1 m of SLR and no interventions, which is over 60% of the current island width at narrower locations. Compounding these hazards is subsidence, with one-third of the study area currently lowering at > 2 mm/yr. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of managing natural barrier systems such as those managed by federal park systems tasked with maintaining natural ecosystems and protecting cultural resources.

North Carolina↗

An episode of rapid bedrock channel incision during the last glacial cycle, measured with 10Be

We use 10Be to infer when, how fast, and why the Susquehanna River incised through bedrock along the U.S. Atlantic seaboard, one of the world's most prominent and ancient passive margins. Although the rate at which large rivers incise rock is a fundamental control on the development of landscapes, relatively few studies have directly measured how quickly such incision occurs either in tectonically active environments or along passive margins. Exposure ages of fluvially carve d, bedrock strath terraces, preserved along the lower Susquehanna River, demonstrate that even along a passive margin, large rivers are capable of incising through rock for short periods of time at rates approaching those recorded in tectonically active regions, such as the Himalayas. Over eighty samples, collected along and between three prominent levels of strath terraces within Holtwood Gorge, indicate that the Susquehanna River incised more than 10 meters into the Appalachian Piedmont during the last glacial cycle. Beginning ???36 ka, incision rates increased dramatically, and remained elevated until ???14 ka. The northern half of the Susquehanna basin was glaciated during the late Wisconsinan; however, similar rates and timing of incision occurred in the unglaciated Potomac River basin immediately to the south. The concurrence of incision periods on both rivers suggests that glaciation and associated meltwater were not the primary drivers of incision. Instead, it appears that changing climatic conditions during the late Pleistocene promoted an increase in the frequency and magnitude of flood events capable of exceeding thresholds for rock detachment and bedrock erosion, thus enabling a short-lived episode of rapid incision into rock. Although this study has constraine d the timing and rate of bedrock incision along the largest river draining the Atlantic passive margin, the dates alone cannot explain fully why, or by what processes, this incision occurred. However, cosmogenic dating offers compelling evidence that episodes of rapid incision into bedrock are tied to glacial cycles and changes in global climate. These results, and the methods we employ, provide valuable insights into the nature of bedrock channel incision, not only along the Susquehanna River and passive margins, but also across a wide range of settings around the globe. Because river incision into bedrock transmits the effects of changing climate and tectonics through fluvial networks to hillslopes, comprehending when, where, and why rivers incise has important implications for the evolution of landscapes.

American Journal of Science↗

Primary production in an impounded baldcypress swamp (Taxodium distichum) at the northern limit of the range

The ability of baldcypress (Taxodium distichum)swamps to maintain themselves near the northern limit of their range depends on their levels of production, which is not only are response to climate but also to local environmental factors(e.g., impoundment). We asked if primary production was reduced under impounded conditions and if species' responses to impoundment were individualistic or more generalized. To examine long-term production trends in a permanently impounded baldcypress swamp, a 6-year study of leaf litterfall was conducted in Buttonland Swamp, Illinois, which had been impounded for 10 years before the beginning of the study. Buttonland Swamp is at the northern boundary of the baldcypress swamp region along the Cache River, Illinois, in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley of the United States. When the litter production of impounded sites was compared to those with natural hydrology in the same region, impounded sites had about half of the total litterfall of natural sites. Overall, leaf litterfall rates declined during the study(201 vs. 113 gm-2 yr-1), but the pattern was negatively correlated with water depth, which explained 97% of the variation in the data. Along the transect with the lowest mean minimum water depth(<0.5 cm), leaf litterfall decreased linearly over 6 years from 377 to 154gm-2 yr-1. Total leaf litterfall rates were lower at the other three depths(5, 43, and 49 cm mean minimum water depths)and remained below 200 gm-2 yr -1 throughout the study. Acer saccharinum, Nyssa aquatica, and Salix nigra were most responsible for the decline in total leaf litterfall. Amounts of leaf litterfall of T. distichum and Liquidambar styraciflua also generally decreased, while that of Cephalanthus occidentalis increased overtime. Because species' responses to environmental factors such as impoundment are individualistic, models should be based on the responses of individual species, rather than on communities. Our study further suggests that the effects of climate change on impounded swamps may differ from those with natural hydrology, since impounded swamps already have reduced production levels. This finding is particularly relevant since the hydrology of the majority of the world's riverine ecosystems has been altered. ?? Springer 2005.

Conference Paper↗

Landscapes of West Africa: A window on a changing world

Our global ecosystem is and has always been complex, dynamic, and in constant flux. Science tells us how natural forces of enormous power have shaped and reshaped Earth’s surface, atmosphere, climate, and biota again and again since the planet’s beginnings about 4.5 billion years ago. For most of the planet’s history those environmental changes were the result of the interaction of natural processes such as geology and climate and were described on the geological time scale in epochs spanning millions of years. When humankind appeared on Earth around 200,000 years ago the influence of human activity on the environment must have been small and localized. The influence of scattered small groups of people on the global ecosystem would have been overwhelmed by the forces of natural systems (Steffen and others, 207). Human population would not grow to 50 million (about 0.7 percent of the Earth’s current population) for another 197,000 years. Population growth accelerated over the centuries that followed until the planet was adding more than that 50 million people every year. Our planet is now home to roughly 7.3 billion people and we are adding 1 million more people roughly every 4.8 days (US Census Bureau, 2011). Before 1950, no one on Earth had lived through a doubling of the human population, but now some people have experienced a tripling in their lifetime (Cohen, 2003).

Book↗

Natural resource inventory and monitoring for Ulaan Taiga Specially Protected Areas—An assessment of needs and opportunities in northern Mongolia

Between 1997 and 2011, Mongolia established three specially protected areas in the north-central part of the country to protect various high-value resources. These areas are jointly referred to as the Ulaan Taiga Specially Protected Areas. In accordance with the goals of the draft general management plan, this report identifies options for initiating an inventory and monitoring program for the three protected areas. Together, the three areas comprise over 1.5 million hectares of mountainous terrain west of Lake Hovsgol and bordering the Darkhad Valley. The area supports numerous rare ungulates, endangered fish, and over 40 species of threatened plants. Illegal mining, illegal logging, and poaching pose the most immediate threats to resources. As a first step, a review of published literature would inform natural resource management at the Ulaan Taiga Specially Protected Areas because it would inform other inventories. Vegetation classification and mapping also would inform other inventory efforts because the process incorporates geographic analysis to identify environmental gradients, fine-scale sampling that captures species composition and structure, and landscape-scale results that represent the variety and extent of habitats for various organisms. Mapping using satellite imagery reduces the cost per hectare. Following a determination of existing knowledge, field surveys of vertebrates and vascular plants would serve to build species lists and fill in gaps in existing knowledge. For abiotic resources, a focus on monitoring air quality, evaluating and monitoring water quality, and assembling and storing weather data would provide information for correlating resource response status with changing environmental conditions. Finally, we identify datasets that, if incorporated into a geographic information system, would inform resource management. They include political boundaries, infrastructure, topography, surficial geology, hydrology, fire history, and soils. In terms of tracking high-value resources, vegetation monitoring at the plot scale would provide a basis for detecting change in such characteristics as plant species composition, vegetation structure, and productivity that are associated with landscape-scale factors such as climate change or biotic interactions. Continued population monitoring of rare ungulates, particularly argali or wild sheep ( Ovis ammon ), would provide information on how populations are responding to natural and anthropogenic stressors. Siberian taimen ( Hucho taimen ) also is an important monitoring target given ongoing threats of poaching and climate change.

Ulaan Taiga Specially Protected Areas↗

Organizing phenological data resources to inform natural resource conservation

Changes in the timing of plant and animal life cycle events, in response to climate change, are already happening across the globe. The impacts of these changes may affect biodiversity via disruption to mutualisms, trophic mismatches, invasions and population declines. To understand the nature, causes and consequences of changed, varied or static phenologies, new data resources and tools are being developed across the globe. The USA National Phenology Network is developing a long-term, multi-taxa phenological database, together with a customizable infrastructure, to support conservation and management needs. We present current and potential applications of the infrastructure, across scales and user groups. The approaches described here are congruent with recent trends towards multi-agency, large-scale research and action.

Biological Conservation↗

Sierra Nevada summary report. California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment

The Sierra Nevada region is critical to the environment and economy of California. Its places and peoples provide essential natural resources including fresh water, clean power, working lands, and famous wilderness. The region encompasses tremendous geographical, climatological, and ecological diversity that spans majestic mountains to deep desert basins. The climate consists of cool, wet winters and warm, dry summers with large differences due to latitude (e.g., the southern Sierra is snowier than northern Sierra) and topography (e.g., the Westside is wetter than the Eastside). Variability is another notable feature of the climate with the region experiencing some of the largest year-to-year climatic fluctuations in the United States. Herein we summarize our assessment of climate-change vulnerabilities and adaptation actions in the region.

Report↗

Identifying stakeholder-relevant climate change impacts: a case study in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

Designing climate-related research so that study results will be useful to natural resource managers is a unique challenge. While decision makers increasingly recognize the need to consider climate change in their resource management plans, and climate scientists recognize the importance of providing locally-relevant climate data and projections, there often remains a gap between management needs and the information that is available or is being collected. We used decision analysis concepts to bring decision-maker and stakeholder perspectives into the applied research planning process. In 2009 we initiated a series of studies on the impacts of climate change in the Yakima River Basin (YRB) with a four-day stakeholder workshop, bringing together managers, stakeholders, and scientists to develop an integrated conceptual model of climate change and climate change impacts in the YRB. The conceptual model development highlighted areas of uncertainty that limit the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and decision alternatives by those who will be most directly affected by those changes, and pointed to areas where additional study and engagement of stakeholders would be beneficial. The workshop and resulting conceptual model highlighted the importance of numerous different outcomes to stakeholders in the basin, including social and economic outcomes that go beyond the physical and biological outcomes typically reported in climate impacts studies. Subsequent studies addressed several of those areas of uncertainty, including changes in water temperatures, habitat quality, and bioenergetics of salmonid populations.

Washington↗

Prioritization of research on drought assessment in a changing climate

Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather that leads to hydrological imbalance. Drought assessments determine the characteristics, severity, and impacts of a drought. Climate change adds conceptual and quantitative challenges to traditional drought assessments. This paper highlights the challenges of assessing drought in a climate made non-stationary by human activities or natural variability. To address these challenges, we then identify 10 key research priorities for advancing drought science and improving assessments in a changing climate. The priorities focus on improving drought indicators to account for non-stationarity, evaluating drought impacts and their trends, addressing regional differences in non-stationarity, determining the physical drivers of drought and how they are changing, capturing precipitation variability, and understanding the drivers of aridification. Ultimately, improved drought assessments will inform better risk management, adaptation strategies, and planning, especially in areas where climate change significantly alters drought dynamics. This perspective offers a path toward more accurate and effective drought management in a non-stationary climate system.

Earth's Future↗

A coupled human and natural systems framework to characterize emerging infectious diseases: The case of fibropapillomatosis in marine turtles

Emerging infectious diseases of wildlife have markedly increased in the last few decades. Unsustainable, continuous, and rapid alterations within and between coupled human and natural systems have significantly disrupted wildlife disease dynamics. Direct and indirect anthropogenic effects, such as climate change, pollution, encroachment, urbanization, travel, and trade, can promote outbreaks of infectious diseases in wildlife. We constructed a coupled human and natural systems framework identifying three main wildlife disease risk factors behind these anthropogenic effects: (i) immune suppression, (ii) viral spillover, and (iii) disease propagation. Through complex and convoluted dynamics, each of the anthropogenic effect listed in our framework can lead, to some extent, to one or more of the identified risk factors accelerating disease outbreaks in wildlife. In this review, we present a novel framework to study anthropogenic impacts within coupled human and natural systems that facilitate emergence of infectious disease involving wildlife. We demonstrate the utility of the framework by applying it to Fibropapillomatosis disease of marine turtles. We aim to articulate the intricate and complex nature of anthropogenically-exacerbated wildlife infectious diseases as multifactorial. This paper supports the adoption of a One Health approach and invites the collaboration of multiple disciplines for the achievement of effective and long-lasting conservation and wildlife emerging diseases mitigation outcomes.

Animals↗

Rangeland fractional components across the western United States from 1985 to 2018

Monitoring temporal dynamics of rangelands to detect and understand change in vegetation cover and composition provides a wealth of information to improve management and sustainability. Remote sensing allows the evaluation of both abrupt and gradual rangeland change at unprecedented spatial and temporal extents. Here, we describe the production of the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) Back in Time (BIT) dataset which quantified the percent cover of rangeland components (bare ground, herbaceous, annual herbaceous, litter, shrub, and sagebrush ( Artemisia spp. Nutt.) across the western United States using Landsat imagery from 1985 to 2018. We evaluate the relationships of component trends with climate drivers at an ecoregion scale, describe the nature of landscape change, and demonstrate several case studies related to changes in grazing management, prescribed burns, and vegetation treatments. Our results showed the net cover of shrub, sagebrush, and litter significantly ( p < 0.01) decreased, bare ground and herbaceous cover had no significant change, and annual herbaceous cover significantly ( p < 0.05) increased. Change was ubiquitous, with a mean of 92% of pixels with some change and 38% of pixels with significant change ( p < 0.10). However, most change was gradual, well over half of pixels have a range of less than 10%, and most change occurred outside of known disturbances. The BIT data facilitate a comprehensive assessment of rangeland condition, evaluation of past management actions, understanding of system variability, and opportunities for future planning.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Mont↗

Effects of climatic change and climatic variability on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the Delaware River basin

The Thornthwaite moisture index is useful as an indicator of the supply of water in an area relative to the demand under prevailing climatic conditions. This study examines the effects of long-term changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the Delaware River basin. Temperature and precipitation estimates for doubled-CO2 conditions derived from three general circulation models (GCMs) are used to study the response of the moisture index for steady-state doubled-CO2 conditions and for gradual changes from present to doubled-CO2 conditions. Results of the study indicate that temperature and precipitation under doubled-CO2 conditions will cause the Thornthwaite moisture index to decrease, implying significantly drier conditions in the Delaware River basin than currently exist. The amount of decrease depends, however, on the GCM climatic-change scenario used. The results also indicate that future changes in the moisture index will be partly masked by natural year-to-year variability in temperature and precipitation. ?? 1992 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Climatic Change↗

Mechanisms, detections, and impacts of species redistributions under climate change

Shifts in species distributions are a common ecological response to climate change, and global temperature rise is often hypothesized as the primary driver. However, the directions and rates of distribution shifts are highly variable across species, systems, and studies, complicating efforts to manage and anticipate biodiversity responses to anthropogenic change. In this Review, we summarize approaches to documenting species range shifts, discuss why observed range shifts often do not match our expectations, and explore the impacts of species range shifts on nature and society. The majority (59%) of documented range shifts are directionally consistent with climate change, based on the BioShifts database of range shift observations. However, many observed species have not shifted or have shifted in directions opposite to temperature-based expectations. These lagging or expectation-contrary shifts might be explained by additional biotic or abiotic factors driving range shifts, including additional non-temperature climatic drivers, habitat characteristics, and species interactions, which are not normally considered in range shift documentations. Understanding and managing range shifts will require increasing and connecting observational biological data, generalizing range shift patterns across systems, and predicting shifts at management-relevant timescales.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment↗

Climate variability and change in high elevation regions: Past, present & future

This special issue of Climatic Change contains a series of research and review articles, arising from papers that were presented and discussed at a workshop held in Davos, Switzerland on 25&ndash;28 June 2001. The workshop was titled &lsquo;Climate Change at High Elevation Sites: Emerging Impacts&rsquo;, and was convened to reprise an earlier conference on the same subject that was held in Wengen, Switzerland in 1995 (Diaz et al., 1997). The Davos meeting had as its main goals, a discussion of the following key issues: (1) reviewing recent climatic trends in high elevation regions of the world, (2) assessing the reliability of various biological indicators as indicators of climatic change, and (3) assessing whether physical impacts of climatic change in high elevation areas are becoming evident, and to discuss a range of monitoring strategies needed to observe and to understand the nature of any changes.

Climatic Change↗

Introduction: An ecoregional assessment of the Wyoming Basins

The Wyoming Basins Ecoregional Assessment (WBEA) area in the western United States contains a number of important land cover types, including nearly one-fourth of the sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) in North America. Although relatively unappreciated until recent decades, the broad open landscapes dominated by sagebrush communities have received increasing attention for their ecological value and the resources that they contain (Knick and Connelly 2011). As many as 350 wildlife species depend on sagebrush ecosystems for all or part of their life requirements (Wisdom et al. 2005a). Within the WBEA, intact sagebrush landscapes provide an important stronghold for populations of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), recently listed as a candidate species under the Endangered Species Act (U.S. Department of the Interior 2010). Numerous other plant and vertebrate species of state or national concern also occur within the WBEA study area (Ch. 2). Conserving sagebrush ecosystems is a major conservation challenge that will require an understanding not only of current trajectories and scales of habitat change due to natural and anthropogenic disturbances (Leu and Hanser 2011), but also the potential exacerbation of these trends from climate change (Wiens and Bachelet 2010, Miller et al. 2011).

Wyoming↗

Climate-smart wetlands can mitigate the wetland-methane feedback loop

Climate change is intensifying wetland methane emissions, reinforcing a feedback loop that accelerates warming and threatens wetlands’ role as natural climate solutions. We propose climate-smart interventions for wetland protection, restoration, and management that explicitly account for methane dynamics. Targeted interventions can weaken methane feedback while safeguarding ecological functions and services.

One Earth↗

Studies from the history of soil science and geology

The United Nations proclaimed the year 2008 as the official International Year of Planet Earth (IYPE), with science and outreach activities spanning 2007–2009. IYPE-sponsored outreach helped focus the attention of the general public on topics such as human health and the environment; ocean and natural resources sustainability; mitigating natural hazards and community resilience; and the effects of climate change. Within the earth science community, the IYPE was a stimulus for retrospection, and for efforts aimed at bridging divides within the community. One such effort was the first joint meeting of the Geological Society of America (GSA) and the Soil Science Society of America (SSSA), held in Houston, Texas, 5–9 October 2008.

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C↗