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Results for “Journal of Hydrology”

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USGS2014

Quantity and quality of groundwater discharge in a hypersaline lake environment

Geophysical and geochemical surveys were conducted to understand groundwater discharge to Great Salt Lake (GSL) and assess the potential significance of groundwater discharge as a source of selenium (Se). Continuous resistivity profiling (CRP) focusing below the sediment/water interface and fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing (FO-DTS) surveys were conducted along the south shore of GSL. FO-DTS surveys identified persistent cold-water temperature anomalies at 10 separate locations. Seepage measurements were conducted at 17 sites (mean seepage rate = 0.8 cm/day). High resistivity anomalies identified by the CRP survey were likely a mirabilite (Na 2 SO 4 ·10H 2 O) salt layer acting as a semi-confining layer for the shallow groundwater below the south shore of the lake. Positive seepage rates measured along the near-shore areas of GSL indicate that a ∼1-m thick oolitic sand overlying the mirabilite layer is likely acting as a shallow, unconfined aquifer. Using the average seepage rate of 0.8 cm/day over an area of 1.6 km 2 , an annual Se mass loading to GSL of 23.5 kg was estimated. Determination of R/Ra values (calculated 3 He/ 4 He ratio over the present-day atmospheric 3 He/ 4 He ratio) <1 and tritium activities of 1.2–2.0 tritium units in groundwater within and below the mirabilite layer indicates a convergence of regional and local groundwater flow paths discharging into GSL. Groundwater within and below the mirabilite layer obtains its high sulfate salinity from the dissolution of mirabilite. The δ 34 S and δ 18 O isotopic values in samples of dissolved sulfate from the shallow groundwater below the mirabilite are almost identical to the isotopic signature of the mirabilite core material. The saturation index calculated for groundwater samples using PHREEQC indicates the water is at equilibrium with mirabilite. Water samples collected from GSL immediately off shore contained Se concentrations that were 3–4 times higher than other sampling sites >25 km offshore from the study site and may be originating from less saline groundwater seeps mixing with the more saline water from GSL. Additional evidence for mixing with near shore seeps is found in the δD and δ 18 O isotopic values and Br:Cl ratios. Geochemical modeling for a water sample collected in the vicinity of the study area indicates that under chemically reducing conditions, arsenic- (As) bearing minerals could dissolve while Se-bearing minerals will likely precipitate out of solution, possibly explaining why the shallow groundwater below and within the mirabilite salt layer contains low concentrations of Se (0.9–2.3 μg/L).

Utah↗

USGS2014

Linking aquifer spatial properties and non-Fickian transport in mobile-immobile like alluvial settings

Time-nonlocal transport models can describe non-Fickian diffusion observed in geological media, but the physical meaning of parameters can be ambiguous, and most applications are limited to curve-fitting. This study explores methods for predicting the parameters of a temporally tempered Lévy motion (TTLM) model for transient sub-diffusion in mobile–immobile like alluvial settings represented by high-resolution hydrofacies models. The TTLM model is a concise multi-rate mass transfer (MRMT) model that describes a linear mass transfer process where the transfer kinetics and late-time transport behavior are controlled by properties of the host medium, especially the immobile domain. The intrinsic connection between the MRMT and TTLM models helps to estimate the main time-nonlocal parameters in the TTLM model (which are the time scale index, the capacity coefficient, and the truncation parameter) either semi-analytically or empirically from the measurable aquifer properties. Further applications show that the TTLM model captures the observed solute snapshots, the breakthrough curves, and the spatial moments of plumes up to the fourth order. Most importantly, the a priori estimation of the time-nonlocal parameters outside of any breakthrough fitting procedure provides a reliable “blind” prediction of the late-time dynamics of subdiffusion observed in a spectrum of alluvial settings. Predictability of the time-nonlocal parameters may be due to the fact that the late-time subdiffusion is not affected by the exact location of each immobile zone, but rather is controlled by the time spent in immobile blocks surrounding the pathway of solute particles. Results also show that the effective dispersion coefficient has to be fitted due to the scale effect of transport, and the mean velocity can differ from local measurements or volume averages. The link between medium heterogeneity and time-nonlocal parameters will help to improve model predictability for non-Fickian transport in alluvial settings.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2014

Exploring the long-term balance between net precipitation and net groundwater exchange in Florida seepage lakes

The long-term balance between net precipitation and net groundwater exchange that maintains thousands of seepage lakes in Florida’s karst terrain is explored at a representative lake basin and then regionally for the State’s peninsular lake district. The 15-year water budget of Lake Starr includes El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related extremes in rainfall, and provides the longest record of Bowen ratio energy-budget (BREB) lake evaporation and lake-groundwater exchanges in the southeastern United States. Negative net precipitation averaging -25 cm/yr at Lake Starr overturns the previously-held conclusion that lakes in this region receive surplus net precipitation. Net groundwater exchange with the lake was positive on average but too small to balance the net precipitation deficit. Groundwater pumping effects and surface-water withdrawals from the lake widened the imbalance. Satellite-based regional estimates of potential evapotranspiration at five large lakes in peninsular Florida compared well with basin-scale evaporation measurements from seven open-water sites that used BREB methods. The regional average lake evaporation estimated for Lake Starr during 1996-2011 was within 5 percent of its measured average, and regional net precipitation agreed within 10 percent. Regional net precipitation to lakes was negative throughout central peninsular Florida and the net precipitation deficit increased by about 20 cm from north to south. Results indicate that seepage lakes farther south on the peninsula receive greater net groundwater inflow than northern lakes and imply that northern lakes are in comparatively leakier hydrogeologic settings. Findings reveal the peninsular lake district to be more vulnerable than was previously realized to drier climate, surface-water withdrawals from lakes, and groundwater pumping effects.

Florida↗

USGS2014

Characterization of the porosity distribution in the upper part of the karst Biscayne aquifer using common offset ground penetrating radar, Everglades National Park, Florida

The karst Biscayne aquifer is characterized by a heterogeneous spatial arrangement of porosity and hydraulic conductivity, making conceptualization difficult. The Biscayne aquifer is the primary source of drinking water for millions of people in south Florida; thus, information concerning the distribution of karst features that concentrate the groundwater flow and affect contaminant transport is critical. The principal purpose of the study was to investigate the ability of two-dimensional ground penetrating radar (GPR) to rapidly characterize porosity variability in the karst Biscayne aquifer in south Florida. An 800-m-long GPR transect of a previously investigated area at the Long Pine Key Nature Trail in Everglades National Park, collected in fast acquisition common offset mode, shows hundreds of diffraction hyperbolae. The distribution of diffraction hyperbolae was used to estimate electromagnetic (EM) wave velocity at each diffraction location and to assess both horizontal and vertical changes in velocity within the transect. A petrophysical model (complex refractive index model or CRIM) was used to estimate total bulk porosity. A set of common midpoint surveys at selected locations distributed along the common-offset transect also were collected for comparison with the common offsets and were used to constrain one-dimensional (1-D) distributions of porosity with depth. Porosity values for the saturated Miami Limestone ranged between 25% and 41% for common offset GPR surveys, and between 23% and 39% for common midpoint GPR surveys. Laboratory measurements of porosity in five whole-core samples from the saturated part of the aquifer in the study area ranged between 7.1% and 41.8%. GPR estimates of porosity were found to be valid only under saturated conditions; other limitations are related to the vertical resolution of the GPR signal and the volume of the material considered by the measurement methodology. Overall, good correspondence between GPR estimates and the direct porosity values from the whole-core samples confirms the ability of GPR common offset surveys to provide rapid characterization of porosity variability in the Biscayne aquifer. The common offset survey method has several advantages: (1) improved time efficiency in comparison to other GPR acquisition modes such as common midpoints; and (2) enhanced lateral continuity of porosity estimates, particularly when compared to porosity measurements on 1-D samples such as rock cores. The results also support the presence of areas of low EM wave velocity or high porosity under saturated conditions, causing velocity pull-down areas and apparent sag features in the reflection record. This study shows that GPR can be a useful tool for improving understanding of the petrophysical properties of highly heterogeneous systems such as karst aquifers, and thus may assist with the development of more accurate groundwater flow models, such as those used for restoration efforts in the Everglades.

Florida↗

USGS2014

Natural uranium and strontium isotope tracers of water sources and surface water-groundwater interactions in arid wetlands: Pahranagat Valley, Nevada, USA

Near-surface physical and chemical process can strongly affect dissolved-ion concentrations and stable isotope compositions of water in wetland settings, especially under arid climate conditions. In contrast, heavy radiogenic isotopes of strontium ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) and uranium ( 234 U/ 238 U) remain largely unaffected and can be used to help identify unique signatures from different sources and quantify end-member mixing that would otherwise be difficult to determine. The utility of combined Sr and U isotopes are demonstrated in this study of wetland habitats on the Pahranagat National Wildlife Refuge, which depend on supply from large-volume springs north of the Refuge, and from small-volume springs and seeps within the Refuge. Water budgets from these sources have not been quantified previously. Evaporation, transpiration, seasonally variable surface flow, and water management practices complicate the use of conventional methods for determining source contributions and mixing relations. In contrast, 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and 234 U/ 238 U remain unfractionated under these conditions, and compositions at a given site remain constant. Differences in Sr- and U-isotopic signatures between individual sites can be related by simple two- or three-component mixing models. Results indicate that surface flow constituting the Refuge’s irrigation source consists of a 65:25:10 mixture of water from two distinct regionally sourced carbonate aquifer springs, and groundwater from locally sourced volcanic aquifers. Within the Refuge, contributions from the irrigation source and local groundwater are readily determined and depend on proximity to those sources as well as water management practices.

Nevada↗

USGS2014

A regional neural network model for predicting mean daily river water temperature

Water temperature is a fundamental property of river habitat and often a key aspect of river resource management, but measurements to characterize thermal regimes are not available for most streams and rivers. As such, we developed an artificial neural network (ANN) ensemble model to predict mean daily water temperature in 197,402 individual stream reaches during the warm season (May–October) throughout the native range of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the eastern U.S. We compared four models with different groups of predictors to determine how well water temperature could be predicted by climatic, landform, and land cover attributes, and used the median prediction from an ensemble of 100 ANNs as our final prediction for each model. The final model included air temperature, landform attributes and forested land cover and predicted mean daily water temperatures with moderate accuracy as determined by root mean squared error (RMSE) at 886 training sites with data from 1980 to 2009 (RMSE = 1.91 °C). Based on validation at 96 sites (RMSE = 1.82) and separately for data from 2010 (RMSE = 1.93), a year with relatively warmer conditions, the model was able to generalize to new stream reaches and years. The most important predictors were mean daily air temperature, prior 7 day mean air temperature, and network catchment area according to sensitivity analyses. Forest land cover at both riparian and catchment extents had relatively weak but clear negative effects. Predicted daily water temperature averaged for the month of July matched expected spatial trends with cooler temperatures in headwaters and at higher elevations and latitudes. Our ANN ensemble is unique in predicting daily temperatures throughout a large region, while other regional efforts have predicted at relatively coarse time steps. The model may prove a useful tool for predicting water temperatures in sampled and unsampled rivers under current conditions and future projections of climate and land use changes, thereby providing information that is valuable to management of river ecosystems and biota such as brook trout.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2014

Investigating organic matter in Fanno Creek, Oregon, Part 1 of 3: estimating annual foliar biomass for a deciduous-dominant urban riparian corridor

For this study, we explored the amount, type, and distribution of foliar biomass that is deposited annually as leaf litter to Fanno Creek and its floodplain in Portland, Oregon, USA. Organic matter is a significant contributor to the decreased dissolved oxygen concentrations observed in Fanno Creek each year and leaf litter is amongst the largest sources of organic matter to the stream channel and floodplain. Using a combination of field measurements and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) point cloud data, the annual foliar biomass was estimated for 13 stream reaches along the creek. Biomass estimates were divided into two sets: (1) the annual foliage available from the entire floodplain overstory canopy, and (2) the annual foliage overhanging the stream, which likely contributes leaf litter directly to the creek each year. Based on these computations, an estimated 991 (±22%) metric tons (tonnes, t) of foliar biomass is produced annually above the floodplain, with about 136 t (±24%) of that foliage falling directly into Fanno Creek. The distribution of foliar biomass varies by reach, with between 150 and 640 t/km2 produced along the floodplain and between 400 and 1100 t/km2 available over the channel. Biomass estimates vary by reach based primarily on the density of tree cover, with forest-dominant reaches containing more mature deciduous trees with broader tree canopies than either wetland or urban-dominant reaches, thus supplying more organic material to the creek. By quantifying the foliar biomass along Fanno Creek we have provided a reach-scale assessment of terrestrial organic matter loading, thereby providing land managers useful information for planning future restoration efforts.

Oregon↗

USGS2014

Investigating organic matter in Fanno Creek, Oregon, Part 2 of 3: sources, sinks, and transport of organic matter with fine sediment

Organic matter (OM) is abundant in Fanno Creek, Oregon, USA, and has been tied to a variety of water-quality concerns, including periods of low dissolved oxygen downstream in the Tualatin River, Oregon. The key sources of OM in Fanno Creek and other Tualatin River tributaries have not been fully identified, although isotopic analyses from previous studies indicated a predominantly terrestrial source. This study investigates the role of fine sediment erosion and deposition (mechanisms and spatial patterns) in relation to OM transport. Geomorphic mapping within the Fanno Creek floodplain shows that a large portion (approximately 70%) of the banks are eroding or subject to erosion, likely as a result of the imbalance caused by anthropogenic alteration. Field measurements of long- and short-term bank erosion average 4.2 cm/year and average measurements of deposition for the watershed are 4.8 cm/year. The balance between average annual erosion and deposition indicates an export of 3,250 metric tons (tonnes, t) of fine sediment to the Tualatin River—about twice the average annual export of 1,880 t of sediment at a location 2.4 km from the creek’s mouth calculated from suspended sediment load regressions from continuous turbidity data and suspended sediment samples. Carbon content from field samples of bank material, combined with fine sediment export rates, indicates that about 29–67 t of carbon, or about 49–116 t of OM, from bank sediment may be exported to the Tualatin River from Fanno Creek annually, an estimate that is a lower bound because it does not account for the mass wasting of organic-rich O and A soil horizons that enter the stream.

Oregon↗

USGS2014

Characterizing phosphorus dynamics in tile-drained agricultural fieldsof eastern Wisconsin

Artificial subsurface drainage provides an avenue for the rapid transfer of phosphorus (P) from agricultural fields to surface waters. This is of particular interest in eastern Wisconsin, where there is a concentrated population of dairy farms and high clay content soils prone to macropore development. Through collaboration with private landowners, surface and tile drainage was measured and analyzed for dissolved reactive P (DRP) and total P (TP) losses at four field sites in eastern Wisconsin between 2005 and 2009. These sites, which received frequent manure applications, represent a range of crop management practices which include: two chisel plowed corn fields (CP1, CP2), a no-till corn–soybean field (NT), and a grazed pasture (GP). Subsurface drainage was the dominant pathway of water loss at each site accounting for 66–96% of total water discharge. Average annual flow-weighted (FW) TP concentrations were 0.88, 0.57, 0.21, and 1.32 mg L −1 for sites CP1, CP2, NT, and GP, respectively. Low TP concentrations at the NT site were due to tile drain interception of groundwater flow where large volumes of tile drainage water diluted the FW-TP concentrations. Subsurface pathways contributed between 17% and 41% of the TP loss across sites. On a drainage event basis, total drainage explained between 36% and 72% of the event DRP loads across CP1, CP2, and GP; there was no relationship between event drainflow and event DRP load at the NT site. Manure applications did not consistently increase P concentrations in drainflow, but annual FW-P concentrations were greater in years receiving manure applications compared to years without manure application. Based on these field measures, P losses from tile drainage must be integrated into field level P budgets and P loss calculations on heavily manured soils, while also acknowledging the unique drainage patterns observed in eastern Wisconsin.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2014

A data reconnaissance on the effect of suspended-sediment concentrations on dissolved-solids concentrations in rivers and tributaries in the Upper Colorado River Basin

The Colorado River is one of the most important sources of water in the western United States, supplying water to over 35 million people in the U.S. and 3 million people in Mexico. High dissolved-solids loading to the River and tributaries are derived primarily from geologic material deposited in inland seas in the mid-to-late Cretaceous Period, but this loading may be increased by human activities. High dissolved solids in the River causes substantial damages to users, primarily in reduced agricultural crop yields and corrosion. The Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Program was created to manage dissolved-solids loading to the River and has focused primarily on reducing irrigation-related loading from agricultural areas. This work presents a reconnaissance of existing data from sites in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) in order to highlight areas where suspended-sediment control measures may be useful in reducing dissolved-solids concentrations. Multiple linear regression was used on data from 164 sites in the UCRB to develop dissolved-solids models that include combinations of explanatory variables of suspended sediment, flow, and time. Results from the partial t -test, overall likelihood ratio, and partial likelihood ratio on the models were used to group the sites into categories of strong, moderate, weak, and no-evidence of a relation between suspended-sediment and dissolved-solids concentrations. Results show 68 sites have strong or moderate evidence of a relation, with drainage areas for many of these sites composed of a large percentage of clastic sedimentary rocks. These results could assist water managers in the region in directing field-scale evaluation of suspended-sediment control measures to reduce UCRB dissolved-solids loading.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2014

Practical limitations on the use of diurnal temperature signals to quantify groundwater upwelling

Groundwater upwelling to streams creates unique habitat by influencing stream water quality and temperature; upwelling zones also serve as vectors for contamination when groundwater is degraded. Temperature time series data acquired along vertical profiles in the streambed have been applied to simple analytical models to determine rates of vertical fluid flux. These models are based on the downward propagation characteristics (amplitude attenuation and phase-lag) of the surface diurnal signal. Despite the popularity of these models, there are few published characterizations of moderate-to-strong upwelling. We attribute this limitation to the thermodynamics of upwelling, under which the downward conductive signal transport from the streambed interface occurs opposite the upward advective fluid flux. Governing equations describing the advection–diffusion of heat within the streambed predict that under upwelling conditions, signal amplitude attenuation will increase, but, counterintuitively, phase-lag will decrease. Therefore the extinction (measurable) depth of the diurnal signal is very shallow, but phase lag is also short, yielding low signal to noise ratio and poor model sensitivity. Conversely, amplitude attenuation over similar sensor spacing is strong, yielding greater potential model sensitivity. Here we present streambed thermal time series over a range of moderate to strong upwelling sites in the Quashnet River, Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The predicted inverse relationship between phase-lag and rate of upwelling was observed in the field data over a range of conditions, but the observed phase-lags were consistently shorter than predicted. Analytical solutions for fluid flux based on signal amplitude attenuation return results consistent with numerical models and physical seepage meters, but the phase-lag analytical model results are generally unreasonable. Through numerical modeling we explore reasons why phase-lag may have been over-predicted by the analytical models, and develop guiding relations of diurnal temperature signal extinction depth based on stream diurnal signal amplitude, upwelling magnitude, and streambed thermal properties that will be useful in designing future experiments.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2015

A new approach for continuous estimation of baseflow using discrete water quality data: Method description and comparison with baseflow estimates from two existing approaches

Understanding how watershed characteristics and climate influence the baseflow component of stream discharge is a topic of interest to both the scientific and water management communities. Therefore, the development of baseflow estimation methods is a topic of active research. Previous studies have demonstrated that graphical hydrograph separation (GHS) and conductivity mass balance (CMB) methods can be applied to stream discharge data to estimate daily baseflow. While CMB is generally considered to be a more objective approach than GHS, its application across broad spatial scales is limited by a lack of high frequency specific conductance (SC) data. We propose a new method that uses discrete SC data, which are widely available, to estimate baseflow at a daily time step using the CMB method. The proposed approach involves the development of regression models that relate discrete SC concentrations to stream discharge and time. Regression-derived CMB baseflow estimates were more similar to baseflow estimates obtained using a CMB approach with measured high frequency SC data than were the GHS baseflow estimates at twelve snowmelt dominated streams and rivers. There was a near perfect fit between the regression-derived and measured CMB baseflow estimates at sites where the regression models were able to accurately predict daily SC concentrations. We propose that the regression-derived approach could be applied to estimate baseflow at large numbers of sites, thereby enabling future investigations of watershed and climatic characteristics that influence the baseflow component of stream discharge across large spatial scales.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Determining the importance of model calibration for forecasting absolute/relative changes in streamflow from LULC and climate changes

Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes are important drivers of change in streamflow. Assessing the impact of LULC and climate changes on streamflow is typically done with a calibrated and validated watershed model. However, there is a debate on the degree of calibration required. The objective of this study was to quantify the variation in estimated relative and absolute changes in streamflow associated with LULC and climate changes with different calibration approaches. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied in an uncalibrated (UC), single outlet calibrated (OC), and spatially-calibrated (SC) mode to compare the relative and absolute changes in streamflow at 14 gaging stations within the Santa Cruz River Watershed in southern Arizona, USA. For this purpose, the effect of 3 LULC, 3 precipitation (P), and 3 temperature (T) scenarios were tested individually. For the validation period, Percent Bias (PBIAS) values were >100% with the UC model for all gages, the values were between 0% and 100% with the OC model and within 20% with the SC model. Changes in streamflow predicted with the UC and OC models were compared with those of the SC model. This approach implicitly assumes that the SC model is “ideal”. Results indicated that the magnitude of both absolute and relative changes in streamflow due to LULC predicted with the UC and OC results were different than those of the SC model. The magnitude of absolute changes predicted with the UC and SC models due to climate change (both P and T) were also significantly different, but were not different for OC and SC models. Results clearly indicated that relative changes due to climate change predicted with the UC and OC were not significantly different than that predicted with the SC models. This result suggests that it is important to calibrate the model spatially to analyze the effect of LULC change but not as important for analyzing the relative change in streamflow due to climate change. This study also indicated that model calibration in not necessary to determine the direction of change in streamflow due to LULC and climate change.

Santa Cruz River Watershed↗

USGS2015

Storage and mobilization of natural and septic nitrate in thick unsaturated zones, California

Mobilization of natural and septic nitrate from the unsaturated zone as a result of managed aquifer recharge has degraded water quality from public-supply wells near Yucca Valley in the western Mojave Desert, California. The effect of nitrate storage and potential for denitrification in the unsaturated zone to mitigate increasing nitrate concentrations were investigated. Storage of water extractable nitrate in unsaturated alluvium up to 160 meters (m) thick, ranged from 420 to 6600 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha) as nitrogen (N) beneath undeveloped sites, from 6100 to 9200 kg/ha as N beneath unsewered sites. Nitrate reducing and denitrifying bacteria were less abundant under undeveloped sites and more abundant under unsewered sites; however, δ 15 N–NO 3 , and δ 18 O–NO 3 data show only about 5–10% denitrification of septic nitrate in most samples—although as much as 40% denitrification occurred in some parts the unsaturated zone and near the top of the water table. Storage of nitrate in thick unsaturated zones and dilution with low-nitrate groundwater are the primary attenuation mechanisms for nitrate from septic discharges in the study area. Numerical simulations of unsaturated flow, using the computer program TOUGH2, showed septic effluent movement through the unsaturated zone increased as the number and density of the septic tanks increased, and decreased with increased layering, and increased slope of layers, within the unsaturated zone. Managing housing density can delay arrival of septic discharges at the water table, especially in layered unsaturated alluvium, allowing time for development of strategies to address future water-quality issues.

California↗

USGS2015

Soil disturbance as a driver of increased stream salinity in a semiarid watershed undergoing energy development

Salinization is a global threat to the quality of streams and rivers, but it can have many causes. Oil and gas development were investigated as one of several potential causes of changes in the salinity of Muddy Creek, which drains 2470 km2 of mostly public land in Wyoming, U.S.A. Stream discharge and salinity vary with seasonal snowmelt and define a primary salinity-discharge relationship. Salinity, measured by specific conductance, increased substantially in 2009 and was 53-71% higher at low discharge and 33-34% higher at high discharge for the years 2009-2012 compared to 2005-2008. Short-term processes (e.g., flushing of efflorescent salts) cause within-year deviations from the primary relation but do not obscure the overall increase in salinity. Dissolved elements associated with increased salinity include calcium, magnesium, and sulfate, a composition that points to native soil salts derived from marine shales as a likely source. Potential causes of the salinity increase were evaluated for consistency by using measured patterns in stream chemistry, slope of the salinity-discharge relationship, and inter-annual timing of the salinity increase. Potential causes that were inconsistent with one or more of those criteria included effects from precipitation, evapotranspiration, reservoirs, grazing, irrigation return flow, groundwater discharge, discharge of energy co-produced waters, and stream habitat restoration. In contrast, surface disturbance of naturally salt-rich soil by oil and gas development activities, such as pipeline, road, and well pad construction, is a reasonable candidate for explaining the salinity increase. As development continues to expand in semiarid lands worldwide, the potential for soil disturbance to increase stream salinity should be considered, particularly where soils host substantial quantities of native salts.

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies↗

USGS2015

Modeled intermittency risk for small streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin under climate change

Longer, drier summers projected for arid and semi-arid regions of western North America under climate change are likely to have enormous consequences for water resources and river-dependent ecosystems. Many climate change scenarios for this region involve decreases in mean annual streamflow, late summer precipitation and late-summer streamflow in the coming decades. Intermittent streams are already common in this region, and it is likely that minimum flows will decrease and some perennial streams will shift to intermittent flow under climate-driven changes in timing and magnitude of precipitation and runoff, combined with increases in temperature. To understand current intermittency among streams and analyze the potential for streams to shift from perennial to intermittent under a warmer climate, we analyzed historic flow records from streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Approximately two-thirds of 115 gaged stream reaches included in our analysis are currently perennial and the rest have some degree of intermittency. Dry years with combinations of high temperatures and low precipitation were associated with more zero-flow days. Mean annual flow was positively related to minimum flows, suggesting that potential future declines in mean annual flows will correspond with declines in minimum flows. The most important landscape variables for predicting low flow metrics were precipitation, percent snow, potential evapotranspiration, soils, and drainage area. Perennial streams in the UCRB that have high minimum-flow variability and low mean flows are likely to be most susceptible to increasing streamflow intermittency in the future.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Long-term changes in nitrate conditions over the 20th century in two Midwestern Corn Belt streams

Long-term changes in nitrate concentration and flux between the middle of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century were estimated for the Des Moines River and the Middle Illinois River, two Midwestern Corn Belt streams, using a novel weighted regression approach that is able to detect subtle changes in solute transport behavior over time. The results show that the largest changes in flow-normalized concentration and flux occurred between 1960 and 1980 in both streams, with smaller or negligible changes between 1980 and 2004. Contrasting patterns were observed between (1) nitrate export linked to non-point sources, explicitly runoff of synthetic fertilizer or other surface sources and (2) nitrate export presumably associated with point sources such as urban wastewater or confined livestock feeding facilities, with each of these modes of transport important under different domains of streamflow. Surface runoff was estimated to be consistently most important under high-flow conditions during the spring in both rivers. Nitrate export may also have been considerable in the Des Moines River even under some conditions during the winter when flows are generally lower, suggesting the influence of point sources during this time. Similar results were shown for the Middle Illinois River, which is subject to significant influence of wastewater from the Chicago area, where elevated nitrate concentrations were associated with at the lowest flows during the winter and fall. By modeling concentration directly, this study highlights the complex relationship between concentration and streamflow that has evolved in these two basins over the last 50 years. This approach provides insights about changing conditions that only become observable when stationarity in the relationship between concentration and streamflow is not assumed.

Illinois, Iowa↗

USGS2015

Maximum likelihood Bayesian model averaging and its predictive analysis for groundwater reactive transport models

While Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has been widely used in groundwater modeling, it is infrequently applied to groundwater reactive transport modeling because of multiple sources of uncertainty in the coupled hydrogeochemical processes and because of the long execution time of each model run. To resolve these problems, this study analyzed different levels of uncertainty in a hierarchical way, and used the maximum likelihood version of BMA, i.e., MLBMA, to improve the computational efficiency. This study demonstrates the applicability of MLBMA to groundwater reactive transport modeling in a synthetic case in which twenty-seven reactive transport models were designed to predict the reactive transport of hexavalent uranium (U(VI)) based on observations at a former uranium mill site near Naturita, CO. These reactive transport models contain three uncertain model components, i.e., parameterization of hydraulic conductivity, configuration of model boundary, and surface complexation reactions that simulate U(VI) adsorption. These uncertain model components were aggregated into the alternative models by integrating a hierarchical structure into MLBMA. The modeling results of the individual models and MLBMA were analyzed to investigate their predictive performance. The predictive logscore results show that MLBMA generally outperforms the best model, suggesting that using MLBMA is a sound strategy to achieve more robust model predictions relative to a single model. MLBMA works best when the alternative models are structurally distinct and have diverse model predictions. When correlation in model structure exists, two strategies were used to improve predictive performance by retaining structurally distinct models or assigning smaller prior model probabilities to correlated models. Since the synthetic models were designed using data from the Naturita site, the results of this study are expected to provide guidance for real-world modeling. Limitations of applying MLBMA to the synthetic study and future real-world modeling are discussed.

California↗