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At least 451 records · Page 25Linked to original sources
USGS2003

Basin-centered asperities in great subduction zone earthquakes: A link between slip, subsidence, and subduction erosion?

Published areas of high coseismic slip, or asperities, for 29 of the largest Circum-Pacific megathrust earthquakes are compared to forearc structure revealed by satellite free-air gravity, bathymetry, and seismic profiling. On average, 71% of an earthquake's seismic moment and 79% of its asperity area occur beneath the prominent gravity low outlining the deep-sea terrace; 57% of an earthquake's asperity area, on average, occurs beneath the forearc basins that lie within the deep-sea terrace. In SW Japan, slip in the 1923, 1944, 1946, and 1968 earthquakes was largely centered beneath five forearc basins whose landward edge overlies the 350??C isotherm on the plate boundary, the inferred downdip limit of the locked zone. Basin-centered coseismic slip also occurred along the Aleutian, Mexico, Peru, and Chile subduction zones but was ambiguous for the great 1964 Alaska earthquake. Beneath intrabasin structural highs, seismic slip tends to be lower, possibly due to higher temperatures and fluid pressures. Kilometers of late Cenozoic subsidence and crustal thinning above some of the source zones are indicated by seismic profiling and drilling and are thought to be caused by basal subduction erosion. The deep-sea terraces and basins may evolve not just by growth of the outer arc high but also by interseismic subsidence not recovered during earthquakes. Basin-centered asperities could indicate a link between subsidence, subduction erosion, and seismogenesis. Whatever the cause, forearc basins may be useful indicators of long-term seismic moment release. The source zone for Cascadia's 1700 A.D. earthquake contains five large, basin-centered gravity lows that may indicate potential asperities at depth. The gravity gradient marking the inferred downdip limit to large coseismic slip lies offshore, except in northwestern Washington, where the low extends landward beneath the coast. Transverse gravity highs between the basins suggest that the margin is seismically segmented and could produce a variety of large earthquakes. Published in 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2003

Finite element model predictions of static deformation from dislocation sources in a subduction zone: Sensitivities to homogeneous, isotropic, Poisson-solid, and half-space assumptions

Dislocation models can simulate static deformation caused by slip along a fault. These models usually take the form of a dislocation embedded in a homogeneous, isotropic, Poisson-solid half-space (HIPSHS). However, the widely accepted HIPSHS assumptions poorly approximate subduction zone systems of converging oceanic and continental crust. This study uses three-dimensional finite element models (FEMs) that allow for any combination (including none) of the HIPSHS assumptions to compute synthetic Green's functions for displacement. Using the 1995 Mw = 8.0 Jalisco-Colima, Mexico, subduction zone earthquake and associated measurements from a nearby GPS array as an example, FEM-generated synthetic Green's functions are combined with standard linear inverse methods to estimate dislocation distributions along the subduction interface. Loading a forward HIPSHS model with dislocation distributions, estimated from FEMs that sequentially relax the HIPSHS assumptions, yields the sensitivity of predicted displacements to each of the HIPSHS assumptions. For the subduction zone models tested and the specific field situation considered, sensitivities to the individual Poisson-solid, isotropy, and homogeneity assumptions can be substantially greater than GPS. measurement uncertainties. Forward modeling quantifies stress coupling between the Mw = 8.0 earthquake and a nearby Mw = 6.3 earthquake that occurred 63 days later. Coulomb stress changes predicted from static HIPSHS models cannot account for the 63-day lag time between events. Alternatively, an FEM that includes a poroelastic oceanic crust, which allows for postseismic pore fluid pressure recovery, can account for the lag time. The pore fluid pressure recovery rate puts an upper limit of 10-17 m2 on the bulk permeability of the oceanic crust. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2003

Magma supply dynamics at Westdahl volcano, Alaska, modeled from satellite radar interferometry

A group of satellite radar interferograms that span the time period from 1991 to 2000 shows that Westdahl volcano, Alaska, deflated during its 1991-1992 eruption and is reinflating at a rate that could produce another eruption within the next several years. The rates of inflation and deflation are approximated by exponential decay functions having time constants of about 6 years and a few days, respectively. This behavior is consistent with a deep, constant-pressure magma source connected to a shallow reservoir by a magma-filled conduit. An elastic deformation model indicates that the reservoir is located about 6 km below sea level and beneath Westdahl Peak. We propose that the magma flow rate through the conduit is governed by the pressure gradient between the deep source and the reservoir. The pressure gradient, and hence the flow rate, are greatest immediately after eruptions. Pressurization of the reservoir decreases both the pressure gradient and the flow rate, but eventually the reservoir ruptures and an eruption or intrusion ensues. The eruption rate is controlled partly by the pressure gradient between the reservoir and surface, and therefore it, too, decreases with time. When the supply of eruptible magma is exhausted, the eruption stops, the reservoir begins to repressurize at a high rate, and the cycle repeats. This model might also be appropriate for other frequently active volcanoes with stable magma sources and relatively simple magma storage systems.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2004

Stress field variations in the Swiss Alps and the northern Alpine foreland derived from inversion of fault plane solutions

This study is devoted to a systematic analysis of the state of stress of the central European Alps and northern Alpine foreland in Switzerland based on focal mechanisms of 138 earthquakes with magnitudes between 1 and 5. The most robust feature of the results is that the azimuth of the minimum compressive stress, S 3 , is generally well constrained for all data subsets and always lies in the NE quadrant. However, within this quadrant, the orientation of S 3 changes systematically both along the structural strike of the Alpine chain and across it. The variation in stress along the mountain belt from NE to SW involves a progressive, counterclockwise rotation of S 3 and is most clear in the foreland, where it amounts to 45°–50°. This pattern of rotation is compatible with the disturbance to the stress field expected from the indentation of the Adriatic Block into the central European Plate, possibly together with buoyancy forces arising from the strongly arcuate structure of the Moho to the immediate west of our study area. Across the Alps, the variation in azimuth of S 3 is defined by a progressive, counterclockwise rotation of about 45° from the foreland in the north across the Helvetic domain to the Penninic nappes in the south and is accompanied by a change from a slight predominance of strike-slip mechanisms in the foreland to a strong predominance of normal faulting in the high parts of the Alps. The observed rotation can be explained by the perturbation of the large-scale regional stress by a local uniaxial deviatoric tension with a magnitude similar to that of the regional differential stress and with an orientation perpendicular to the strike of the Alpine belt. The tensile nature and orientation of this stress is consistent with the “spreading” stress expected from lateral density changes due to a crustal root beneath the Alps.

European Alps↗
USGS2004

Crystallographic controls on the frictional behavior of dry and water-saturated sheet structure minerals

We compare the frictional strengths of 17 sheet structure mineral powders, measured under dry and water-saturated conditions, to identify the factors that cause many of them to be relatively weak. The dry coefficient of friction μ ranges upward from 0.2 for graphite, leveling off at 0.8 for margarite, clintonite, gibbsite, kaolinite, and lizardite. The values of μ (dry) correlate directly with calculated (001) interlayer bond strengths of the minerals. This correlation occurs because shear becomes localized along boundary and Riedel shears and the platy minerals in them rotate into alignment with the shear planes. For those gouges with μ (dry) < 0.8, shear occurs by breaking the interlayer bonds to form new cleavage surfaces. Where μ (dry) = 0.8, consistent with Byerlee's law, the interlayer bonds are sufficiently strong that other frictional processes dominate. The transition in dry friction mechanisms corresponds to calculated surface energies of 2–3 J/m 2 . Adding water causes μ to decrease for every mineral tested except graphite. If the minerals are separated into groups with similar crystal structures, μ (wet) increases with increasing interlayer bond strength within each group. This relationship also holds for the swelling clay montmorillonite, whose water-saturated strength is consistent with the strengths of nonswelling clays of similar crystal structure. Water in the saturated gouges forms thin, structured films between the plate surfaces. The polar water molecules are bonded to the plate surfaces in proportion to the mineral's surface energy, and μ (wet) reflects the stresses required to shear through the water films.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2004

Stress triggering in thrust and subduction earthquakes and stress interaction between the southern San Andreas and nearby thrust and strike-slip faults

We argue that key features of thrust earthquake triggering, inhibition, and clustering can be explained by Coulomb stress changes, which we illustrate by a suite of representative models and by detailed examples. Whereas slip on surface-cutting thrust faults drops the stress in most of the adjacent crust, slip on blind thrust faults increases the stress on some nearby zones, particularly above the source fault. Blind thrusts can thus trigger slip on secondary faults at shallow depth and typically produce broadly distributed aftershocks. Short thrust ruptures are particularly efficient at triggering earthquakes of similar size on adjacent thrust faults. We calculate that during a progressive thrust sequence in central California the 1983 M w = 6.7 Coalinga earthquake brought the subsequent 1983 M w = 6.0 Nuñez and 1985 M w = 6.0 Kettleman Hills ruptures 10 bars and 1 bar closer to Coulomb failure. The idealized stress change calculations also reconcile the distribution of seismicity accompanying large subduction events, in agreement with findings of prior investigations. Subduction zone ruptures are calculated to promote normal faulting events in the outer rise and to promote thrust-faulting events on the periphery of the seismic rupture and its downdip extension. These features are evident in aftershocks of the 1957 M w = 9.1 Aleutian and other large subduction earthquakes. We further examine stress changes on the rupture surface imparted by the 1960 M w = 9.5 and 1995 M w = 8.1 Chile earthquakes, for which detailed slip models are available. Calculated Coulomb stress increases of 2–20 bars correspond closely to sites of aftershocks and postseismic slip, whereas aftershocks are absent where the stress drops by more than 10 bars. We also argue that slip on major strike-slip systems modulates the stress acting on nearby thrust and strike-slip faults. We calculate that the 1857 M w = 7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake on the San Andreas fault and subsequent interseismic slip brought the Coalinga fault ∼1 bar closer to failure but inhibited failure elsewhere on the Coast Ranges thrust faults. The 1857 earthquake also promoted failure on the White Wolf reverse fault by 8 bars, which ruptured in the 1952 M w = 7.3 Kern County shock but inhibited slip on the left-lateral Garlock fault, which has not ruptured since 1857. We thus contend that stress transfer exerts a control on the seismicity of thrust faults across a broad spectrum of spatial and temporal scales.

California↗
USGS2004

Strain accumulation across the Coast Ranges at the latitude of San Francisco, 1994-2000

A 66-monument geodetic array spanning the Coast Ranges near San Francisco has been surveyed more than eight times by GIPS between late 1993 and early 2001. The measured horizontal velocities of the monuments are well represented by uniform, right-lateral, simple shear parallel to N29°W. (The local strike of the San Andreas Fault is ∼N34°W.) The observed areal dilatation rate of 6.9 ± 10.0 nstrain yr −1 (quoted uncertainty is one standard deviation and extension is reckoned positive) is not significantly different from zero, which implies that the observed strain accumulation could be released by strike-slip faulting alone. Our results are consistent with the slip rates assigned by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities [2003] to the principal faults (San Gregorio, San Andreas, Hayward-Rodgers Creek, Calaveras-Concord-Green Valley, and Greenville Faults) cutting across the GPS array. The vector sum of those slip rates is is 39.8 ± 2.6 mm yr −1 N29.8°W ± 2.8°, whereas the motion across the GPS array (breadth 120 km) inferred from the uniform strain rate approximation is 38.7 ± 1.2 mm yr −1 N29.0°W ± 0.9° right-lateral shear and 0.4 ± 0.9 mm yr −1 N61°E ± 0.9° extension. We interpret the near coincidence of these rates and the absence of significant accumulation of areal dilatation to imply that right-lateral slip on the principal faults can release the accumulating strain; major strain release on reverse faults subparallel to the San Andreas Fault within the Coast Ranges is not required.

California↗
USGS2004

Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey

New earthquake probability calculations are made for the Sea of Marmara region and the city of Istanbul, providing a revised forecast and an evaluation of time-dependent interaction techniques. Calculations incorporate newly obtained bathymetric images of the North Anatolian fault beneath the Sea of Marmara [Le Pichon et al., 2001; Armijo et al., 2002]. Newly interpreted fault segmentation enables an improved regional A.D. 1500-2000 earthquake catalog and interevent model, which form the basis for time-dependent probability estimates. Calculations presented here also employ detailed models of coseismic and postseismic slip associated with the 17 August 1999 M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to investigate effects of stress transfer on seismic hazard. Probability changes caused by the 1999 shock depend on Marmara Sea fault-stressing rates, which are calculated with a new finite element model. The combined 2004-2034 regional Poisson probability of M≥7 earthquakes is ~38%, the regional time-dependent probability is 44 ± 18%, and incorporation of stress transfer raises it to 53 ± 18%. The most important effect of adding time dependence and stress transfer to the calculations is an increase in the 30 year probability of a M ??? 7 earthquake affecting Istanbul. The 30 year Poisson probability at Istanbul is 21%, and the addition of time dependence and stress transfer raises it to 41 ± 14%. The ranges given on probability values are sensitivities of the calculations to input parameters determined by Monte Carlo analysis; 1000 calculations are made using parameters drawn at random from distributions. Sensitivities are large relative to mean probability values and enhancements caused by stress transfer, reflecting a poor understanding of large-earthquake aperiodicity.

Sea Of Marmara↗
USGS2004

Interseismic strain and rotation rates in the northeast Mojave domain, eastern California

The northeast Mojave domain, a type locality for bookshelf faulting, is a region of east striking, left-lateral faults in the northeast corner of the Mojave block, a block otherwise dominated by ∼N40°W striking, right-lateral faults. Paleomagnetic evidence suggests that blocks within the domain have rotated clockwise about a vertical axis as much as 60° since 12.8 Ma [Schermer et al., 1996] . In 1994, and again in 2002, the U.S. Geological Survey surveyed an array of 14 geodetic monuments distributed across the northeast Mojave domain. The 2002 survey results were adjusted to remove the coseismic offsets imposed by the nearby Hector Mine earthquake (16 October 1999, M w = 7.1). The adjusted deformation across the array appears to be uniform and can be approximated by the principal strain rates ε 1 = 28.9 ± 9.1 N77.2°W ± 4.8° and ε 2 = −48.2 ± 8.9 N12.8°E ± 4.8° nstrain yr −1 ; extension reckoned positive, and quoted uncertainties are standard deviations. That strain accumulation could be released by slip on faults striking N32°W but not by bookshelf faulting on the east striking faults alone. The vertical axis rotation rate of the northeast Mojave domain as a whole relative to fixed North America is 71.0 ± 6.4 nrad yr −1 (4.07° ± 0.37° Myr −1 ) clockwise, about twice the maximum tensor shear strain rate. The observed rotation rate acting over 12.8 Myr would produce a clockwise rotation of 52.1° ± 4.7°, exclusive of possible coseismic rotations. That rotation is in rough agreement with the paleomagnetic rotation accumulated in the individual fault blocks within the northeast Mojave domain since 12.8 Ma.

California↗
USGS2004

Contemporary tectonic deformation of the Basin and Range province, western United States: 10 years of observation with the Global Positioning System

[1] We have estimated patterns and rates of crustal movement across 800 km of the Basin and Range at ∼39° north latitude with Global Positioning System surveys in 1992, 1996, 1998, and 2002. The total rate of motion tangent to the small circle around the Pacific‐North America pole of rotation is 10.4 ± 1.0 mm/yr, and motion normal to this small circle is 3.9 ± 0.9 mm/yr compared to the east end of our network. On the Colorado Plateau the east end of our network moves by ∼1–2 mm/yr westerly with respect to North America. Transitions in strain rates delimit six major tectonic domains within the province. These deformation zones coincide with areas of modern seismicity and are, from east to west, (1) east‐west extension in the Wasatch Fault zone, (2) low rate east‐west extension centered near the Nevada‐Utah border, (3) low rate east‐west contraction between 114.7°W and 117.9°W, (4) extension normal to and strike‐slip motion across the N10°E striking Central Nevada Seismic Zone, (5) right lateral simple shear oriented N13°W inside the Walker Lane Belt, and (6) shear plus extension near the Sierra Nevada frontal faults. Concentration of shear and dilatational deformation across the three westernmost zones suggests that the Walker Lane Belt lithosphere is rheologically weak. However, we show that linear gradients in viscosity and gravitational potential energy can also effectively concentrate deformation. In the Basin and Range, gradients in gravitational potential are spatially anticorrelated with dilatational strain rates, consistent with the presence of horizontal variations in viscosity of the lithosphere.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2005

Magmatic effects of the Cobb hot spot on the Juan de Fuca Ridge

The interaction of the Juan de Fuca Ridge with the Cobb hot spot has had a considerable influence on the magmatism of the Axial Segment of the ridge, the second-order segment that overlies the hot spot. In addition to the construction of the large volcanic edifice of Axial Seamount, the Axial Segment has shallow bathymetry and a prevalence of constructional volcanic features along its 100-km length, suggesting that hot spot-derived magmas supplement and oversupply the ridge. Lavas are generally more primitive at Axial Seamount and more evolved in the Axial Segment rift zones, suggesting that fractional crystallization is enhanced with increasing distance from the hot spot because of a reduced magma supply and more rapid cooling. Although the Cobb hot spot is not an isotopically enriched plume, it produces lavas with some distinct geochemical characteristics relative to normal mid-ocean ridge basalt, such as enrichments in alkalis and highly incompatible trace elements, that can be used as tracers to identify the presence and prevalence of the hot spot influence along the ridge. These characteristics are most prominent at Axial Seamount and decline in gradients along the Axial Segment. The physical model that can best explain the geochemical observations is a scenario in which hot spot and mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) magmas mix to varying degrees, with the proportions controlled by the depth to the MORB source. Modeling of two-component mixing suggests that MORB is the dominant component in most Axial Segment basalts. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2004

Noise in two-color electronic distance meter measurements revisited

Frequent, high-precision geodetic data have temporally correlated errors. Temporal correlations directly affect both the estimate of rate and its standard error; the rate of deformation is a key product from geodetic measurements made in tectonically active areas. Various models of temporally correlated errors are developed and these provide relations between the power spectral density and the data covariance matrix. These relations are applied to two-color electronic distance meter (EDM) measurements made frequently in California over the past 15-20 years. Previous analysis indicated that these data have significant random walk error. Analysis using the noise models developed here indicates that the random walk model is valid for about 30% of the data. A second 30% of the data can be better modeled with power law noise with a spectral index between 1 and 2, while another 30% of the data can be modeled with a combination of band-pass-filtered plus random walk noise. The remaining 10% of the data can be best modeled as a combination of band-pass-filtered plus power law noise. This band-pass-filtered noise is a product of an annual cycle that leaks into adjacent frequency bands. For time spans of more than 1 year these more complex noise models indicate that the precision in rate estimates is better than that inferred by just the simpler, random walk model of noise.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2004

Stress interaction between subduction earthquakes and forearc strike-slip faults: Modeling and application to the northern Caribbean plate boundary

Strike-slip faults in the forearc region of a subduction zone often present significant seismic hazard because of their proximity to population centers. We explore the interaction between thrust events on the subduction interface and strike-slip faults within the forearc region using three-dimensional models of static Coulomb stress change. Model results reveal that subduction earthquakes with slip vectors subparallel to the trench axis enhance the Coulomb stress on strike-slip faults adjacent to the trench but reduce the stress on faults farther back in the forearc region. In contrast, subduction events with slip vectors perpendicular to the trench axis enhance the Coulomb stress on strike-slip faults farther back in the forearc, while reducing the stress adjacent to the trench. A significant contribution to Coulomb stress increase on strike-slip faults in the back region of the forearc comes from "unclamping" of the fault, i.e., reduction in normal stress due to thrust motion on the subduction interface. We argue that although Coulomb stress changes from individual subduction earthquakes are ephemeral, their cumulative effects on the pattern of lithosphere deformation in the forearc region are significant. We use the Coulomb stress models to explain the contrasting deformation pattern between two adjacent segments of the Caribbean subduction zone. Subduction earthquakes with slip vectors nearly perpendicular to the Caribbean trench axis is dominant in the Hispaniola segment, where the strike-slip faults are more than 60 km inland from the trench. In contrast, subduction slip motion is nearly parallel to the Caribbean trench axis along the Puerto Rico segment, where the strike-slip fault is less than 15 km from the trench. This observed jump from a strike-slip fault close to the trench axis in the Puerto Rico segment to the inland faults in Hispaniola is explained by different distributions of Coulomb stress in the forearc region of the two segments, as a result of the change from the nearly trench parallel slip on the Puerto Rico subduction interface to the more perpendicular subduction slip beneath Hispaniola. The observations and modeling suggest that subduction-induced strike-slip seismic hazard to Puerto Rico may be smaller than previously assumed but the hazard to Hispaniola remains high. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2005

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar study of Okmok volcano, Alaska, 1992-2003: Magma supply dynamics and postemplacement lava flow deformation

Okmok volcano, located in the central Aleutian arc, Alaska, is a dominantly basaltic complex topped with a 10-km-wide caldera that formed circa 2.05 ka. Okmok erupted several times during the 20th century, most recently in 1997; eruptions in 1945, 1958, and 1997 produced lava flows within the caldera. We used 80 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images (interferograms) to study transient deformation of the volcano before, during, and after the 1997 eruption. Point source models suggest that a magma reservoir at a depth of 3.2 km below sea level, located beneath the center of the caldera and about 5 km northeast of the 1997 vent, is responsible for observed volcano-wide deformation. The preeruption uplift rate decreased from about 10 cm yr −1 during 1992–1993 to 2 ∼ 3 cm yr −1 during 1993–1995 and then to about −1 ∼ −2 cm yr −1 during 1995–1996. The posteruption inflation rate generally decreased with time during 1997–2001, but increased significantly during 2001–2003. By the summer of 2003, 30 ∼ 60% of the magma volume lost from the reservoir in the 1997 eruption had been replenished. Interferograms for periods before the 1997 eruption indicate consistent subsidence of the surface of the 1958 lava flows, most likely due to thermal contraction. Interferograms for periods after the eruption suggest at least four distinct deformation processes: (1) volcano-wide inflation due to replenishment of the shallow magma reservoir, (2) subsidence of the 1997 lava flows, most likely due to thermal contraction, (3) deformation of the 1958 lava flows due to loading by the 1997 flows, and (4) continuing subsidence of 1958 lava flows buried beneath 1997 flows. Our results provide insights into the postemplacement behavior of lava flows and have cautionary implications for the interpretation of inflation patterns at active volcanoes.

Alaska↗
USGS2004

Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: The example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius

We describe an event tree scheme to quantitatively estimate both long- and short-term volcanic hazard. The procedure is based on a Bayesian approach that produces a probability estimation of any possible event in which we are interested and can make use of all available information including theoretical models, historical and geological data, and monitoring observations. The main steps in the procedure are (1) to estimate an a priori probability distribution based upon theoretical knowledge, (2) to modify that using past data, and (3) to modify it further using current monitoring data. The scheme allows epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties to be dealt with in a formal way, through estimation of probability distributions at each node of the event tree. We then describe an application of the method to the case of Mount Vesuvius. Although the primary intent of the example is to illustrate the methodology, one result of this application merits special mention. The present emergency response plan for Mount Vesuvius is referenced to a maximum expected event (MEE), the largest out of all the possible eruptions within the next few decades. Our calculation suggest that there is a nonnegligible (1-20%) chance that the next eruption could be larger than that stipulated in the present MEE. The methodology allows all assumptions and thresholds to be clearly identified and provides a rational means for their revision if new data or information are obtained. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Mount Vesuvius↗
USGS2005

Significance of stress transfer in time-dependent earthquake probability calculations

A sudden change in stress is seen to modify earthquake rates, but should it also revise earthquake probability? Data used to derive input parameters permits an array of forecasts; so how large a static stress change is require to cause a statistically significant earthquake probability change? To answer that question, effects of parameter and philosophical choices are examined through all phases of sample calculations, Drawing at random from distributions of recurrence-aperiodicity pairs identifies many that recreate long paleoseismic and historic earthquake catalogs. Probability density funtions built from the recurrence-aperiodicity pairs give the range of possible earthquake forecasts under a point process renewal model. Consequences of choices made in stress transfer calculations, such as different slip models, fault rake, dip, and friction are, tracked. For interactions among large faults, calculated peak stress changes may be localized, with most of the receiving fault area changed less than the mean. Thus, to avoid overstating probability change on segments, stress change values should be drawn from a distribution reflecting the spatial pattern rather than using the segment mean. Disparity resulting from interaction probability methodology is also examined. For a fault with a well-understood earthquake history, a minimum stress change to stressing rate ratio of 10:1 to 20:1 is required to significantly skew probabilities with >80-85% confidence. That ratio must be closer to 50:1 to exceed 90-95% confidence levels. Thus revision to earthquake probability is achievable when a perturbing event is very close to the fault in question or the tectonic stressing rate is low.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2005

Rupture dynamics with energy loss outside the slip zone

Energy loss in a fault damage zone, outside the slip zone, contributes to the fracture energy that determines rupture velocity of an earthquake. A nonelastic two-dimensional dynamic calculation is done in which the slip zone is modeled as a fault plane and material off the fault is subject to a Coulomb yield condition. In a mode 2 crack-like solution in which an abrupt uniform drop of shear traction on the fault spreads from a point, Coulomb yielding occurs on the extensional side of the fault. Plastic strain is distributed with uniform magnitude along the fault, and it has a thickness normal to the fault proportional to propagation distance. Energy loss off the fault is also proportional to propagation distance, and it can become much larger than energy loss on the fault specified by the fault constitutive relation. The slip velocity function could be produced in an equivalent elastic problem by a slip-weakening friction law with breakdown slip Dc increasing with distance. Fracture energy G and equivalent Dc will be different in ruptures with different initiation points and stress drops, so they are not constitutive properties; they are determined by the dynamic solution that arrives at a particular point. Peak slip velocity is, however, a property of a fault location. Nonelastic response can be mimicked by imposing a limit on slip velocity on a fault in an elastic medium.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗