USGS ScienceSearch

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

1,665 records · Page 25Linked to original sources

The role of bedrock circulation depth and porosity in mountain streamflow response to prolonged drought

Quantitative understanding is lacking on how the depth of active groundwater circulation in bedrock affects mountain streamflow response to a multi‐year drought. We use an integrated hydrological model to explore the sensitivity of a variety of streamflow metrics to bedrock circulation depth and porosity under a plausible extreme drought scenario lasting up to 5 years. Endmember depth versus hydraulic conductivity relationships and porosity values for fractured crystalline rock are simulated. With drought, a deeper circulation system with higher drainable porosity more effectively buffers minimum flow and significantly limits perennial stream loss in comparison to a shallow circulation system. Streamflow buffering is accomplished through extensive groundwater storage loss. However, deeper circulation systems experience prolonged recovery from drought in comparison to storage‐limited shallow systems. Research highlights the importance of characterizing the deeper bedrock hydrogeology in mountainous watersheds to better understand and predict drought impacts on stream ecosystem health and water resource sustainability.

Colorado

Ground-water flow in the surficial aquifer system and potential movement of contaminants from selected waste-disposal sites at Naval Station Mayport, Florida

Ground-water flow through the surficial aquifer system at Naval Station Mayport near Jacksonville, Florida, was simulated with a two-layer finite-difference model as part of an investigation conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey. The model was calibrated to 229 water-level measurements from 181 wells during three synoptic surveys (July 17, 1995; July 31, 1996; and October 24, 1996). A quantifiable understanding of ground-water flow through the surficial aquifer was needed to evaluate remedial-action alternatives under consideration by the Naval Station Mayport to control the possible movement of contaminants from sites on the station. Multi-well aquifer tests, single-well tests, and slug tests were conducted to estimate the hydraulic properties of the surficial aquifer system, which was divided into three geohydrologic units�an S-zone and an I-zone separated by a marsh-muck confining unit. The recharge rate was estimated to range from 4 to 15 inches per year (95 percent confidence limits), based on a chloride-ratio method. Most of the simulations following model calibration were based on a recharge rate of 8 inches per year to unirrigated pervious areas. The advective displacement of saline pore water during the last 200 years was simulated using a particle-tracking routine, MODPATH, applied to calibrated steady-state and transient models of the Mayport peninsula. The surficial aquifer system at Naval Station Mayport has been modified greatly by natural and anthropogenic forces so that the freshwater flow system is expanding and saltwater is being flushed from the system. A new MODFLOW package (VAR1) was written to simulate the temporal variation of hydraulic properties caused by construction activities at Naval Station Mayport. The transiently simulated saltwater distribution after 200 years of displacement described the chloride distribution in the I-zone (determined from measurements made during 1993 and 1996) better than the steady-state simulation. The advective movement of contaminants from selected sites within the solid waste management units to discharge points was simulated using MODPATH. Most of the particles were discharged to the nearest surface-water feature after traveling less than 1,000 feet in the ground-water system. Most areas within 1,000 feet of a surface-water feature or storm sewer had traveltimes of less than 50 years, based on an effective porosity of 40 percent. Contributing areas, traveltimes, and pathlines were identified for 224 wells at Naval Station Mayport under steady-state and transient conditions by back-tracking a particle from the midpoint of the wetted screen of each well. Traveltimes to contributing areas that ranged between 15 and 50 years, estimated by the steady-state model, differed most from the transient traveltime estimates. Estimates of traveltimes and pathlines based on steady-state model results typically were 10 to 20 years more and about twice as long as corresponding estimates from the transient model. The models differed because the steady-state model simulated 1996 conditions when Naval Station Mayport had more impervious surfaces than at any earlier time. The expansion of the impervious surfaces increased the average distance between contributing areas and observation wells.

Florida

Characterizing changes in postfire debris-flow hazard as burned areas recover

Emergency assessments of postfire debris-flow hazards that are performed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provide estimates of debris-flow likelihood and rainfall triggering conditions that are used for evaluating and managing runoff-generated debris-flow hazards in recently burned areas throughout the western United States. Although the immediate postfire period, within roughly one year after fire, is typically the most susceptible to runoff-generated debris flows, the hazard evolves in time and space as the burned area recovers. The recovery trajectory a given burned area will take depends on local climate and weather and can be difficult to predict. Some burned areas recover quickly, whereas others experience debris flows for multiple years after fire. As a result, extending our ability to update debris-flow likelihood estimates and rainfall thresholds based on observed recovery of the burned area would be beneficial. We present a method for multi-year runoff-generated debris-flow hazard assessment that leverages the USGS “M1” debris-flow likelihood model and integrates updated, satellite-derived, normalized burn ratio data to estimate vegetation recovery. We predict recovery-aware rainfall thresholds and validate them against a multi-year debris-flow hazard prediction and could be adapted for use with other debris-flow models that incorporate burn severity data.

Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Washing

Rapid fault healing from cementation controls the dynamics of deep slow slip and tremor

Despite its status as one of the most important discoveries in geophysics, the physical mechanism(s) responsible for slow slip events (SSEs) are not well understood. Here, we synthesize observations of deep SSEs in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and argue that rapid, cohesive fault strengthening may control the dynamics of deep SSEs. Cohesive strength is frequently ignored in constitutive laws used to describe fault rheology in numerical simulations of earthquakes and SSEs alike. To demonstrate its importance, we perform and analyze a suite of petrological experiments that simulate fault healing under representative pressure and temperature conditions. We show that significant cohesive strength recovery caused by dissolution-precipitation processes occurs on timescales of just a few hours. Together, our experimental and observational results support the idea that cohesion is a key component of fault strength under SSE conditions and highlight the need for its inclusion in both future experiments and numerical models of fault slip.

British Columbia, Washington

Static and dynamic strain in the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake

During the 1886 Mw 7.3 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake, three railroads emanating from the city were exposed to severe shaking. Expansion joints in segmented railroad tracks are designed to allow railroad infrastructure to withstand a few parts in 10,000 of thermoelastic strain. We show that, in 1886, transient contractions exceeding this limiting value buckled rails, and transient extensions pulled rails apart. Calculated values for dynamic strain in the meizoseismal region are in reasonable agreement with those anticipated from the relation between strain and moment magnitude proposed by Barbour et al. (2021) and exceed estimated tectonic strain released by the earthquake by an order of magnitude. Almost all of the documented disturbances of railroad lines, including evidence for shortening of the rails, can thus be ascribed to the effects of dynamic strain changes, not static strain. Little or no damage to railroads was reported outside the estimated 10 −4 dynamic strain contour. The correspondence between 10 −3 and 2×10 −4 contours of dynamic strain and Mercalli intensity 9 and 8, anticipated from the dependence of each quantity on peak ground velocity, suggests it may be possible to use railroad damage to quantitatively estimate shaking intensity. At one location, near Rantowles, ≈20 km west of Charleston, a photograph of buckled track taken one day after the earthquake has been cited as evidence for shallow dextral slip and has long focused a search for a causal fault in this region. Photogrammetric analysis reveals that the buckle was caused by transient contraction of <10 cm with no dextral offset. Our results further weaken the evidence for faulting in the swamps and forests south of the Ashley River in 1886, hitherto motivated by the photograph and limited macroseismic evidence for high‐intensity shaking.

South Carolina

Inference of pattern-based geological CO2 sequestration and oil recovery potential in a commingled main pay and residual oil zone CO2-EOR flood

Several detailed studies have shown that residual oil zones (ROZs) can present significant resources for additional hydrocarbon recovery as well as subsurface carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration via enhanced oil recovery by injecting CO 2 (CO 2 -EOR). Field development strategies included new wells drilled dedicated to main pay zones (MPZ) and ROZs, or existing wells in MPZs deepened to ROZs for commingled injection-production using different well patterns. The latter presented a challenge when discerning the injection and production from each of the zones, and for subsequent quantification of CO 2 sequestration and EOR potential from different patterns and from the field. In this paper, an innovative method for analyzing commingled injections and productions from MPZs and ROZs, with application to pattern-based data from four staggered line drive patterns in Wasson Field's Denver Unit, Texas, USA, was developed. Decline curve and ratio-trend methods were used as means of history-matching and forecasting. Cumulative production-time and cumulative production-rate data for oil, gas, and water, as well as water-oil ratio (WOR) and gas-oil ratio (GOR), were analyzed along with injection data for time intervals covering major injection events in MPZ, or MPZ and ROZ combined. A combined analysis enabled inference of allocation of fluids into different zones during WAG (water alternating gas) injection and thereby estimation of CO 2 storage, utilization, and retention in different zones as a function of total injection. Results show that ROZs generally present higher CO 2 sequestration potential compared to MPZs, and a comparable incremental oil recovery factor of ∼20%, on average. Results based on ratio analysis further show that while the WOR trend of the pattern production is mostly dominated and controlled by ROZ, GOR is controlled by both intervals. Although the method relying on decline curves and the approach used in zonal fluid allocations are subject to their limitations, this study presents a practical and innovative well-pattern-based method to infer and forecast CO 2 sequestration and oil recovery quantities and fluid ratios from MPZs and ROZs in commingled operations and highlight the added potential offered by ROZs.

Texas

Earth Mapping Resources Initiative protocols—Sampling hard-rock mine waste and perpetual mine water sources

Supporting the overarching goal to evaluate critical minerals nationwide, the mine waste characterization effort in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Mapping Resources Initiative has created a series of protocols to standardize sampling carried out under this effort by the participating State geological surveys and their cooperators. The protocols are based on published, reviewed methods that can be deployed in the field. The protocols include (1) collecting and processing composite samples of mine and mill waste, including tailings, waste rock, gangue, heap leach piles, ore stockpiles, slag, or other mineralized and processed materials and (2) collecting and preserving water samples from perpetual or long-term mine water sources. The protocols also specify information to document on field sheets and detail the collection of geospatial data. The analytical methods used by the USGS and USGS contract laboratories are described in this report, including the data delivery pathway for USGS-derived data.

Scientific Investigations Report

Central Valley Hydrologic Model version 2 (CVHM2): Decision support tool for groundwater and land subsidence management

The San Joaquin Valley (SJV) of California is one of the world’s most productive agricultural regions. Reliance on groundwater has led to some of the greatest rates of human-induced land subsidence in the world in the 20th century, as well as more recently. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has recently developed an integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model, the Central Valley Hydrologic Model 2 (CVHM2), that represents the major components of the hydrologic system of California’s Central Valley. In this study, CVHM2 was applied as a decision support tool while simulating various management strategies to mitigate the land subsidence caused by the extraction of groundwater. CVHM2 was extended through to 2073 and applied to simulate management scenarios in terms of three primary drivers and their impact on subsidence along the Delta–Mendota Canal (DMC), a critical piece of infrastructure in the western SJV. The drivers considered were agricultural water demands, managed aquifer recharge (MAR), and changes in future climate. The results show that future subsidence is most sensitive to water demands, second most sensitive to future changes in climate, and relatively insensitive to MAR when it is applied as a surface application in the western SJV. However, we demonstrate via proof-of-concept scenarios that the MAR is capable of arresting subsidence when implemented via injection below the Corcoran Clay Member of the Tulare Formation instead of as a surface application. We also examine the uncertainty that is the result of climate variability and how to use the tool to identify the most appropriate strategies to constrain future subsidence to acceptable levels.

California

Invasion of perennial sagebrush steppe by shallow-rooted exotic cheatgrass reduces stable forms of soil carbon in a warmer but not cooler ecoregion

Soil organic carbon ('SOC') in drylands comprises nearly a third of the global SOC pool and has relatively rapid turnover and thus is a key driver of variability in the global carbon cycle. SOC is also a sensitive indicator of longer-term directional change and disturbance-responses of ecosystem C storage. Biome-scale disruption of the dryland carbon cycle by exotic annual grass invasions (mainly Bromus tectorum, 'Cheatgrass') threatens carbon storage and corresponding benefits to soil hydrology and nutrient retention. Past studies on cheatgrass impacts mainly focused on total C, and of the few that evaluated SOC, none compared the very different fractions of SOC, such as relatively unstable particulate organic carbon (POC) or relatively stable, mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC). We measured SOC and its POC and MAOC constituents in the surface soils of sites that had sagebrush canopies but differed in whether their understories had been invaded by cheatgrass or not, in both warm and relatively colder ecoregions of the western USA. MAOC stocks were 36.1% less in the 0–10 cm depth and 46.1% less in the 10–20 cm depth in the cheatgrass-invaded stands compared to the uninvaded stands of the warmer Colorado Plateau, but not in the cooler and more carbon-rich Wyoming Basin ecoregion. In plots where cheatgrass increased SOC, it was via unstable POC. These findings indicate that cheatgrass effects on the distribution of soil carbon among POC and MAOC fractions may vary among ecoregions, and that cheatgrass can reduce forms of carbon that are otherwise considered stable and 'secure', i.e. sequestered.

Environmental Research Communications

Estimating earthquake source depth using teleseismic broadband waveform modeling at the USGS National Earthquake Information Center

The U.S. Geologic Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) monitors global seismicity, producing a catalog of earthquake source parameters in near-real-time to provide information that can help mitigate the societal impact of earthquakes. The NEIC commonly relies on teleseismic observations to constrain earthquake source parameters (e.g., location, depth, magnitude, and mechanism) due to a lack of local and regional observations. For these ‘teleseismic’ events, depth phase (i.e., pP , sP ) arrival time observations provide the best estimate on source depth. However, depth phases are often difficult to accurately identify and/or pick. Therefore, NEIC relies on waveform modeling, such as those determined from W-phase ( M ww ), body wave ( M wb ), and regional ( M wr ) moment tensor estimations, to provide constraints on source depth. While depth estimates from these approaches are informative, higher frequency observations provide more precise estimates because depth phases are more prominently observed at higher frequencies. Here, we present NEIC’s relatively high-frequency (~0.04 to 1 Hz) teleseismic waveform modeling approach, termed Synthetic Depth Phase Modeling (SynDepth), for determining source depth. SynDepth was developed to provide NEIC with a tool that enables rapid, accurate, and quantifiable estimates of earthquake source depth in cases where locator depths are not reliable. This relatively simple and fast procedure searches over 1 km-incremented source depths and an expanding triangular source-time function to find the best-fitting solution. We compare automatic SynDepth solutions for a dataset of 1,216 earthquakes (M5.5-M7.6) between 2017 and 2021 to NEIC-derived depth estimates from other methods. Our approach provides a robust depth estimate for earthquakes lacking local arrival time data, and it minimizes the need for analyst review of depth-phase picks ( pP , sP ) or using predefined ‘fixed’ depths.

Seismological Research Letters

Fairweather transform boundary Oligocene to present orogenesis: Fairweather Range vertical extrusion and rotation of the Yakutat microplate at ca. 3 Ma

Oblique-slip along transform fault boundaries is often partitioned between a strike-slip system and thrust faults that accommodate contraction. However, topography along the Yakutat-North American transform (Fairweather fault), is asymmetric with low-terrain above active thrusts on the western, Yakutat side of the transform and high topography on the continental side with peaks >4500 m (Mount Fairweather: 4671 m) to the west of the Border Ranges fault, limited recorded earthquakes >M4, and no apparent reverse faults to generate the highest terrain. In this study we compile, for the first time, published U-Pb zircon, 40 Ar/ 39 Ar and K-Ar (hornblende, muscovite, and biotite) and U-Th/He and fission-track (zircon and apatite) bedrock ages (109) from 75 samples to investigate the exhumation history of the Fairweather Range region, complemented by a published detrital sample (ZFT and AFT) and 13 new 40 Ar/ 39 Ar (hornblende, biotite, and K-feldspar) ages on 9 bedrock samples from both sides of the Fairweather fault. Additionally, we examined published seismicity and geodetic data of the Fairweather region and assessed if plate paleo-vectors correlate with the cooling history of the Fairweather Range. Cooling age, seismic, and block-motion patterns indicate the Fairweather Range has been vertically extruded between the Fairweather and the Border Ranges faults as a coherent block since ca. 25 Ma. The pre-6 Ma Pacific plate motion (N30°W) aligns with the N33°W strike of the Fairweather Fault whereas a hypothetical pre-6 Ma Yakutat microplate paleo-vector of (N39°W) does not: indicating a post-6 Ma timing for Yakutat microplate counter-clockwise rotation (9°). We infer that rotation and impingement of the Yakutat microplate along the Fairweather fault at ca. 3 Ma led to the development of the Fairweather restraining bend and increased cooling rates. The resultant thickened Fairweather welt and the ∼30 km thick southeast end of the Yakutat microplate compounded double-indenter tectonics into Alaska's southeast convergent corner

Tectonophysics

Relationship between peak and cumulative ground motions from 49 Mw 3-6 earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area

We examine the relationship between peak ground velocity (PGV) and cumulative absolute displacement (CAD) for 49 M w 3 – 6 earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and gain insight into the spatiotemporal partitioning of seismic energy in ground motion records with respect to source, path, and site effects. PGV and CAD are positively correlated, but there can be large deviations from the average trend. For example, ground motion records with either very long duration resonance or short pulse-like motions will have higher or lower CAD, respectively, but could have very similar PGV. We perform principal component analysis (PCA) on PGV-CAD for >7000 records in the SFBA with the goal of investigating what influences positive or negative anomalies in cumulative motions. PCA rotates the PGV-CAD datapoints into two principal components, where the one with the larger variance, which we call the “primary intensity” represents mostly the distance-dependence of ground motion amplitudes. The other principal component, which we call the “excess motion”, represents the deviation from cumulative motions that would be typical for a ground motion record with a given PGV. The excess motion will be positive in the case of records with long duration ringing and will be negative for short duration pulse-like ground motions. We find that excess motion is generally positive at sites in sedimentary basins and in soft sediments around the SF Bay. Excess motion is generally negative in the very near field, as well as at sites on hard bedrock. We discuss the findings here in terms of implications for seismic hazard applications and other wave propagation phenomena.

California

Use of precariously balanced rocks to constrain postglacial earthquake magnitudes in New England, United States

We use the age and fragility of 13 precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and southwestern Maine to evaluate the estimated probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) from the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), and also develop a map of maximum postglacial earthquake magnitudes in the region. The PBRs are erratic boulders left behind by the retreat of the Laurentide ice sheet between 13 and 18 ka, and published ice retreat maps are used to estimate their fragility ages. The fragilities and ages of the rocks appear to be consistent with the NSHM, in that the estimated earthquake magnitudes and resulting ground motions that would topple them are only expected on timescales longer than their fragility ages. This result, on the North American passive margin, contrasts with PBR studies at active plate boundaries, where the PBR constraints imply large reductions to estimated PSH. It may be that the PBRs are not old enough in the eastern United States to reveal the same PSH modeling issues as those revealed in the plate boundary settings. The study provides constraints on maximum magnitudes of postglacial earthquakes across much of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and southwestern Maine, with the constraints limited to the ages of the PBRs.

Maine. Massachusetts, New Hampshire

Ground magnetic and VLF studies at Midnite uranium mine, Stevens County, Washington

Ground magnetic and E-mode VLF measurements were made at more than 200 stations at the Midnite uranium Mine, Stevens County, Washington. The equipment was found to be light and foolproof, and each set of data was collected in one day, exclusive of surveying and marking the station points. The maps of contoured magnetic and VLF data resembled geologic maps of the area, showing many common features, as well as a few unique features on each map. Each showed some evidence of a small normal fault cutting the region; taken together, the evidence for this fault was judged to be much stronger, so that further structural details were inferred. Because of soil cover and inadequate outcrops, the presence of this fault had hitherto been unsuspected. A target area for further uranium mineralization north of the fault was indicated by this quick, inexpensive geophysical survey. The drilling program which Midnite Mine management had underway at that time had already outlined a mineralized zone in the indicated area.

Washington

Early Miocene volcanic rocks and associated tectonics, Lava Hills and southern Bristol Mountains, California

Volcanic rocks of latest Oligocene to early Miocene age form an east-west belt across part of the central eastern Mojave Desert from the Whipple Mountains on the east to the Rosamond Hills on the west. We term this the central belt because it is separated from northern and southern belts by swaths with no volcanic rocks. Limited geochronologic data indicate that much of the belt is latest Oligocene and early Miocene in age, about 24 to 19 Ma, a finding that is consistent with these rocks being overlain by the 18.8 Ma Peach Spring Tuff in many places. We describe Miocene geology in a central area of the belt, in the Lava Hills, southern Bristol Mountains, and southern Old Dad Mountains. Sedimentary basins formed coeval with early andesite to rhyolite volcanism, progressing from fluvial and lacustrine tuffaceous sandstone to volcanic lavas, tuffs, and breccias, indicating that early basins formed proximal to volcanic edifices. Higher strata are fluvial and lacustrine with lavas punctuating the sequence. Although basins may partly have been formed within topographic lows bounded by volcanic domes, plateaus, and stratovolcanoes, consistent stratigraphic sections over wide areas indicate that tectonic basin evolution affected broad areas. The volcanic section is capped by local basalt flows and the regional Peach Spring Tuff. Limited data on normal faults support interpretations of early extensional basin development caused by northeast-southwest oriented stretching. Later extension caused stratal rotations, tilting early deposits down to the southwest. This tilted and subsequently beveled basin architecture was overlain by the youngest volcanic deposits, primarily rhyolite and basalt. The Peach Spring Tuff, 18.8 Ma, lies within this upper unit. Similar stratigraphic and structural relations are exposed in the nearby Marble Mountains and Van Winkle Mountain sections, reinforcing that a broad area underwent similar volcanism and tectonism. In our study area the upper unit is only very gently tilted except near dextral strike-slip faults of the eastern California shear zone. These late Miocene to Recent faults are represented as four main fault zones spaced about 5 km apart, representing distributed shear north of the Bristol Lake basin.

California

Volcanic gas monitoring

Introduction As magma rises through the crust, decreasing pressure conditions allow volatiles to exsolve from the magma. These volatiles then migrate upward through the crust, where they can be stored at shallower levels or escape to the atmosphere. Rising magma also heats rock masses beneath volcanic centers, causing water in shallow aquifers and hydrothermal systems to boil and release additional gases and steam (see chapter F , this volume; Ingebritsen and Hurwitz, 2024). The chemistry and quantity of gases that reach the surface during periods of quiescence or volcanic unrest can reveal that gas-rich magma is ascending, crystallizing, or alternatively stalling, with important implications for volcanic hazard (for example, Sutton and others, 1992; Aiuppa and others, 2007, 2021; Werner and others, 2009, 2011, 2012; Moretti and others, 2013; de Moor and others, 2016; Lewicki and others, 2019; Edmonds and others, 2022; Kern and others, 2022; Kunrat and others, 2022). Most volcanoes in Alaska and the western United States are characterized by weak degassing, with one or more low-temperature fumaroles (typically near the local boiling temperature of water) and connect to a deeper and sometimes extensive hydrothermal system (for example, McGee and others, 2001; Symonds and others, 2003a, b). Hydrothermal systems will affect the chemistry of rising gases exsolved from deeper magma (Symonds and others, 2001), including sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), hydrogen chloride (HCl), and water vapor (for example, Doukas and Gerlach, 1995; Gerlach and others, 1998, 2008; Symonds and others, 2001; Werner and others, 2013). As an example, depending on factors such as temperature, pressure, and oxidation state, rising SO 2 will react with groundwater to form hydrogen sulfide (H 2 S) gas, dissolved sulfate (SO 4 2− ), or elemental sulfur (Christenson, 2000; Symonds and others, 2001; Werner and others, 2008). The reaction and dissolution of SO 2 into shallow groundwater is commonly referred to as scrubbing, and can reduce the likelihood that ascending, degassing magma can be detected. Carbon dioxide, however, in addition to exsolving from magma early in the ascent process, is not easily removed by hydrothermal fluids (Lowenstern, 2001). As scrubbing and other processes take place, the SO 2 /H 2 S, CO 2 /SO 2 , and CO 2 /H 2 S ratios may change. High rates of SO 2 emission indicate that magma has moved to relatively shallow levels in the volcano and that the system has heated up enough to establish dry pathways from depth to the surface. Monitoring multiple gas species and the total output of those species is thereby useful for volcano monitoring during both periods of quiescence, to establish background degassing conditions, and during unrest, when gas geochemistry and emission rates can provide information on changing conditions, such as magma ascent. To provide context for multidisciplinary volcano forecasts, we focus on the following two key required capabilities: (1) characterizing baseline geochemistry and gas discharge from volcanoes and volcanic regions and (2) monitoring changes in gas geochemistry and discharge to inform forecasts of volcanic eruptions and their effects. Sufficient baseline data must be collected to identify and interpret anomalous degassing associated with volcanic unrest (for example, Sorey and others, 1998; Rouwet and others, 2014). Differences in volcano type, baseline degassing rates, local hydrology, and geography (for example, high versus low latitude) will result in a different baseline for each volcano. Volcanoes of any threat level that exhibit one or more degassing phenomena would ideally be monitored by techniques needed to establish baseline degassing data, with the sampling frequency of baseline data dictated by the threat level (table E1). Additional monitoring techniques become necessary during periods of unrest. In general, three of the most important techniques for gas monitoring are (1) direct sampling of fumarole, spring, and soil gases for laboratory geochemical measurements, (2) measurements of the chemical composition of the volcanic plume and emission rates of major gas species (for example, H 2 O, CO 2 , SO 2 , and H 2 S) by satellite, airborne, or ground-based techniques, and (3) measurements of diffuse emissions of CO 2 and other gases through soils. Various methods and instruments may be useful both for baseline studies and during unrest.

Scientific Investigations Report

Evidence for nonlocal sediment transport on hillslopes from fault scarp morphology

Hillslope sediment transport processes such as bioturbation, rainsplash, and granular mechanics occur across the entire planet. Yet, it remains uncertain how these small-scale processes act together to shape landscapes. Longstanding hillslope diffusion theory posits that hillslope processes are spatially limited, whereas new concepts of nonlocal sediment transport argue otherwise. However, each theory produces subtly different, but distinct, predictions for the evolution of fault scarps. We use the topographic change of fault scarps to demonstrate that hillslope processes produce nonlocal sediment transport. Analysis of a global compilation of 340 dated single-earthquake scarp profiles reveals a statistically significant ( p < 0.05 ) relationship between scarp age and scarp asymmetry, here defined as the ratio of imaginary to real components of the Fourier transform of absolute slope. Numerical simulations show that nonlocal models predict this relationship, whereas hillslope diffusion models do not. To further investigate this result, we examined the depositional geometry of a well-exposed colluvial wedge along the Wasatch fault in central Utah, United States. Our quantitative comparison between the exposure and numerical simulations reveals better agreement with the nonlocal model. Nonlocal sediment transport theory appears to best capture the physics of how hillslope processes shape fault scarps, yet hillslope diffusion provides a useful approximation in many cases. As the processes that act on fault scarps are nearly identical to those acting on hillslopes, our results provide evidence supporting nonlocality as a generalized model of hillslope sediment transport.

Utah

Post-glacial stratigraphy and late Holocene record of great Cascadia earthquakes in Ozette Lake, Washington, USA

Ozette Lake is an ~100-m-deep coastal lake located along the outer coast of the Olympic Peninsula (Washington, USA); it is situated above the locked portion of the northern Cascadia megathrust but also relatively isolated from active crustal faults and intraslab earthquakes. Here we present a suite of geophysical and geological evidence for earthquake-triggered mass transport deposits (MTDs) and related turbidite deposition in Ozette Lake since ca. 14 ka. Comprehensive high-resolution bathymetry data, seismic reflection profiles, and sediment cores are used to characterize the post-glacial stratigraphic framework and examine paleoseismic evidence in the lacustrine sediments. Stacked sequences of MTDs along the steep eastern flanks of the lake appear to grade basin-ward from thick, chaotic, blocky masses to thin, parallel-bedded turbidite beds. The discrete turbidite event layers are separated by fine-grained (silt and clay) lake sedimentation. The event layers are observed throughout the lake, but the physical characteristics of the deposits vary considerably depending on proximity to primary depocenters, steep slopes, and subaqueous deltas. A total of 30–34 event deposits are observed in the post-glacial record. Radiometric dating was used to reconstruct a detailed sedimentation history over the last ~5.5 k.y., develop an age model, and estimate the recurrence (365–405 yr) for the most recent 12 event layers. Based on sedimentological characteristics, temporal overlap with other regional paleoseismic chronologies, and recurrence estimates, at least 10 of the dated event layers appear to be sourced from slope failures triggered by intense shaking during megathrust ruptures; the recurrence interval for these 10 events is 440–560 yr. Thus, Ozette Lake contains one of the longest and most robust geological records of repeated shaking along the northern Cascadia subduction zone.

Washington