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Quantifying methane emissions from a rich fen with uncrewed aircraft systems in boreal Alaska

Thawing of permafrost in northern latitudes is accelerating, potentially releasing substantial amounts of methane (CH 4 ) as forested permafrost plateaus transition into wetlands. This ecosystem shift alters the carbon exchange between the soil and atmosphere, influencing the permafrost-carbon feedback. Monitoring these changes may require measurement platforms operating across varied spatial and temporal scales. Recent advancements in small uncrewed aircraft systems (sUAS) enable high resolution CH 4 flux quantification in remote, complex terrains; however, comparisons with established methods such as eddy covariance flux towers remain limited. We used a hexacopter sUAS to quantify CH 4 emissions from the Alaska Peatland Experiment, a wetland within the Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest. Using an ensemble of methods to define the background CH 4 concentration, along with near surface emissions from soil chambers, helped constrain our flux estimates. The sUAS method yielded an average flux of 0.0077 ± 0.0019 mol s −1 CH 4 , within a factor of two concurrent tower-derived total source flux estimates (0.0036 ± 0.00042 mol s −1 CH 4 ). To assess spatial drivers of observed fluxes, we conducted a 2D footprint analysis and overlaid the results with high-resolution hyperspectral land cover classification, quantifying vegetative contributions within each footprint. This revealed higher fen representation in sUAS measurements (73.8%) than in tower footprints (58.8%), and lower tussock meadow representation (15.6% and 30.3%, respectively). These differences were consistent with known variation in vegetation-specific CH 4 emissions. Our results highlight that combining footprint modeling with land cover characterization can enhance interpretations of CH 4 fluxes and guide cross-platform comparisons.

JGR Atmospheres

Characterization of change in tree cover state and condition over the conterminous United States

Variability in the effects of disturbances and extreme climate events can lead to changes in tree cover over time, including partial or complete loss, with diverse ecological consequences. It is therefore critical to identify in space and time the change processes that lead to tree cover change. Studies of change are often hampered by the lack of data capable of consistently detecting different types of change. Using the Landsat satellite record to create a long time-series of land cover and land cover change, the U.S. Geological Survey Land Change Monitoring Assessment and Projection (LCMAP) project has made an annual time series of land cover across the conterminous United States for the period 1985 to 2018. Multiple LCMAP products analyzed together with map validation reference plots provide a robust basis for understanding tree cover change. In LCMAP (Collection 1.2), annual change detection is based on harmonic model breaks calculated at each Landsat pixel from the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm. The results showed that the majority of CCDC harmonic model breaks (signifying change) indicated partial tree cover loss (associated with management practices such as tree cover thinning) as compared to complete tree cover loss (associated with practices like clearcut harvest or fire disturbance). Substantially fewer occurrences of complete tree cover loss were associated with change in land cover state. The area of annual tree cover change increased after the late 1990s and stayed high for the rest of the study period. The reference data showed that tree harvest dominated across the conterminous United States. The majority of tree cover change occurred in evergreen forests. Large estimates of disturbance-related tree cover change indicated that tree cover loss may have previously been underreported due to omission of partial tree cover loss in prior studies. This has considerable implications for forest carbon accounting along with tracking ecosystem goods and services.

Forests

Miocene evolution of the Humboldt Current

Diatom records from the East Pisco Basin (EPB) of southern Peru and offshore Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 682 A reveal stepwise increases in the primary productivity of the Humboldt Current during the middle and late Miocene. Although diatoms are present back through the late middle Eocene, successively enhanced diatom production occurs during the Miocene in four steps. The first step between 14.2 and 13.8 Ma marks the onset of diatom deposition in the Pisco-0 sequence. A second step at ∼12.9 Ma coincides with a major drop in global sea level during which diatom deposition ceased in the EPB but continued in ODP 682 A as well as in Chile, Ecuador, and Colombia. Beginning at 10.4 to 10.0 Ma, a major increase in diatom sedimentation rates in both the EPB and in ODP 682 A signals an abrupt intensification of the Humboldt Current productivity, which may be related to the closure of the Central American Seaway to deeper water circulation. A fourth step coincides with the transgressive deposition of the diatom-rich Pisco-2 sequence at 8.4 Ma and is enhanced by the onset of the global Late Miocene Biogenic Bloom (8.0–4.5 Ma). Between 7 and 6 Ma, common subtropical diatoms in ODP 682 A contrast with high diatom deposition rates in the EPB, suggesting variable El Niño-La Niña conditions. During this time, fossil vegetation evidence from southern Peru supports the presence of seasonal periods of enhanced rainfall typical of El Niño conditions. The Miocene trend of increasing sea mammal diversity in the EPB parallels these steps, further supporting stepwise enhancement of primary productivity in the Humboldt Current during the Miocene.

Humboldt Current

Patterns and drivers of cliff erosion in Big Sur, California, USA using repeat photogrammetry, 2017–2023

Seacliff erosion in steep terrain poses major risks to transportation and critical infrastructure. In Big Sur, California, USA, seacliff erosion threatens the sustainability of the central coast stretch of California State Route 1, a transportation corridor that is critical to the region's economy. Published cliff retreat rates for the region range from 1 to 40 cm yr −1 , highlighting that high-resolution, process-based studies could enhance understanding of the causes of spatial and temporal variability. We quantified cliff erosion and investigated its drivers along ∼13 km of the Big Sur coastline at week–month timescales during the late fall to early spring wet seasons between January 2017 and June 2023 by analyzing 3D point clouds developed from aerial imagery using four-dimensional structure-from-motion (4D SfM) photogrammetry techniques. We calculated cliff face retreat rates of 2.23 ± 3.06 cm yr −1 (mean ±1 σ ), an order of magnitude lower than long-term estimated rates for the region (which included large deep-seated landslides), but in line with short-term rates reported across California. Change detection imagery comparison, cliff profiles through time, and statistical analysis reveal a cyclical cliff evolution process in which erosion by wave action at the cliff base destabilizes the cliff and primes it for subsequent failure during precipitation events. Although more erosion by volume could be attributed to precipitation-induced increases in soil moisture (784 m 3 km −1 yr −1 ) compared with erosion attributed to wave power (282 m 3 km −1 yr −1 ), our observations underscore the coupled nature of these processes in driving cliff evolution, consistent with established theory and observations.

California

Simulated effects of future water availability and protected species habitat in a perennial wetland, Santa Barbara County, California

This study evaluates the potential water availability in Barka Slough and the effects of changing hydrological conditions on the aquatic habitat of five protected species. Barka Slough is a historically perennial wetland at the downstream western end of the San Antonio Creek Valley watershed (SACVW). A previously published hydrologic model of the SACVW for 1948–2018 was extended to include 2019–2021 and then modified to simulate the future years of 2022–2051. Two models simulating the future years of 2022–2051 were constructed, each with different climate inputs: (1) a repeated historical climate and (2) a 2070-centered Drier Extreme Warming climate (2070 DEW). The model with the 2070 DEW climate had warmer temperatures and an increase in average annual precipitation driven by larger, albeit more infrequent, precipitation events than the model with the historical climate. Simulated groundwater pumpage resulted in cumulative groundwater storage depletion and groundwater-level decline in Barka Slough in both future models. The simulations indicate that Barka Slough may transition from a perennial to an ephemeral wetland. Streamflow, stream disconnection, and depth to groundwater are key habitat metrics for federally listed species in Barka Slough. Future seasonal conditions for each metric are more likely to affect federally listed species’ habitats under 2070 DEW climatic conditions. Future seasonal streamflow volume may negatively impact unarmored threespine stickleback ( Gasterosteus aculeatus williamsoni ) and tidewater goby ( Eucyclogobis newberryi) habitats. Future seasonal stream disconnection may negatively impact the unarmored threespine stickleback habitat. Future groundwater-level decline may negatively impact Gambel’s watercress ( Nasturtium gambelii ) and La Graciosa thistle ( Cirsium scariosum var. loncholepis ) habitats and could influence the ability to use Barka Slough as a restoration or reintroduction site for these species. Results from this study can be used to inform water management decisions to sustain future groundwater availability in the SACVW.

California

Simulation of groundwater flow in Wake County, North Carolina, 2000 through 2070

In 2019, the U.S. Geological Survey and Wake County Environmental Services began a collaborative study to evaluate groundwater resources and long-term groundwater availability in the county’s fractured-rock groundwater system. Wake County, in central North Carolina, is experiencing rapid population growth, associated land development, and changing water use. Hydrogeologic data including groundwater levels, aquifer testing, borehole fracture flow measurements, water-quality samples, and groundwater age-dating tracers were collected, along with findings from previous investigations, to help inform a conceptual model of the flow system used to develop a modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model (MODFLOW) for simulating historical and future groundwater conditions from 2000 to 2070. Hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity ranges were estimated from 17 slug tests and 21 borehole-flow measurements. Groundwater-quality analytical results from 19 sampling sites indicate that oxidation-reduction (redox) conditions varied within the regolith and bedrock and that minimal evaporation occurred before recharge entered the groundwater system. Age dating revealed mixtures of older and younger water, ranging from the 1940s to the 1990s—indicating variable flow pathways of recharge within permeable bedrock fracture zones. To simplify the complex fractured-rock groundwater system, two layers representing the regolith and the fractured bedrock were used in the MODFLOW model. Model calibration included parameter estimation and provided a reasonable fit to observed groundwater levels and estimated stream base flows. The model forecast scenarios incorporated future climate-model data for two emissions scenarios with land cover change projections to simulate potential impacts to future groundwater levels, recharge, and base flows. Recharge and base flow projections were largely within historical ranges, with no apparent long-term trends, but did indicate a slight downward shift in median values—likely, in part, because of differences in spatial resolution of input climate datasets. Seasonal patterns were consistent with historical data, with projections of possible increases in future winter recharge. Model limitations are discussed, and additional monitoring and model refinement needs are highlighted to support decision making for local groundwater management.

North Carolina

Rare earth element-mineralized carbonatite in the Bear Lodge Alkaline Complex, USA—Ore genesis implications from fluid inclusion characterization

Rare earth element (REE) resources of the Bear Lodge Alkaline Complex, Wyoming, are hosted in variably leached carbonatite spatially related to diatreme breccia pipes. We investigated the genesis of REE and lesser-known gold resources through fluid inclusion analysis of carbonatite, fluorite breccia, and smoky quartz vein samples. Physicochemical characteristics of inclusion-trapped fluids were evaluated using petrography, microthermometry, Raman spectroscopy, decrepitate mound analysis, energy-dispersive spectroscopy, laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, and noble gas isotope analysis. Microthermometry results reveal three fluid types that affected carbonatite dikes within deeper zones that escaped near-surface, ore-grade REE enrichment: (1) high-temperature (330–432°C) magmatic fluid captured in fine-grained calcite; (2) REE-enriched alkali bicarbonate-sulfate brine; and (3) low-temperature (117–182°C) diluted magmatic or meteoric water. Multiphase brine-like inclusions contain burbankite, nahcolite, strontianite, celestine and alkali sulfate daughter crystals, linking them to early burbankite mineralization. Peripheral smoky quartz and fluorite occurrences at Smith Ridge, 1.5 km from the central carbonatite dike swarm, contain primary inclusions that are Cl-poor and rich in Na-HCO 3 -SO 4 , similar to secondary and pseudosecondary inclusions in carbonatites. Helium isotopes reveal a MORB-like source for carbonatite samples and an older crust signature at Smith Ridge, consistent with the proximal ridge-top exposures of Archean granite. Results from this fluid inclusion study coupled with previous studies of carbonatite mineral paragenesis, show that light REEs (LREEs) were not mobilized great distances. Instead, burbankite crystallized within carbonatite from alkali bicarbonate fluids. With sodium retained in early burbankite, outward-emanating fluids enriched in potassium relative to sodium (higher K:Na) resulted in potassium–ferric iron metasomatism of silicate host rocks. This alkali fractionation was accompanied by fractionation of LREEs and heavy REEs (HREEs), with LREEs dominating the central carbonatite resources. In contrast, areas of peripheral REE mineralization at Bear Lodge are commonly characterized by higher HREE:LREE ratios. The K:Na ratio of associated fenites or alteration assemblages could be indicative of early crystallized burbankite in carbonatites and REE fractionation processes potentially leading to areas of concentrated HREEs with greater supply vulnerabilities.

South Dakota, Wyoming

Hydrogeologic conceptual model of groundwater occurrence and brine discharge to the Dolores River in the Paradox Valley, Montrose County, Colorado

Salinity, or total dissolved solids (TDS), of the Colorado River is a major concern in the southwestern United States where the river provides water to about 40 million people for municipal and industrial use and is used to irrigate about 5.5 million acres of land. Much of the salinity in the Colorado River Basin is derived from natural interactions of surface water and groundwater with various geologic materials (rocks, soils, and alluvial deposits). The Dolores River in southwest Colorado is a major tributary of the Colorado River that historically accounts for about 6 percent of the salinity load to the Upper Colorado River Basin with the Paradox Valley being the primary source of salinity to the Dolores River. The Paradox Valley, one of several salt-anticline valleys in the region, is a fault-bounded topographic basin aligned with and exposing an underlying salt-anticline core. Salt deposits in the Pennsylvanian Paradox Formation of the Hermosa Group form an elongated salt diapir oriented northwest to southeast that is up to 12,000 feet (ft) thick beneath the present valley floor. Surface erosion, groundwater circulation, and weathering during Tertiary and Quaternary valley formation contributed to development of a cap rock, collapse features, breccia, and brine at the top of the exposed salt diapir. Today (2023), brine occurring in the brecciated cap rock and underlying salt deposits is in hydraulic connection with an overlying freshwater alluvial aquifer, and depending on seasonal river stage and hydrologic conditions, the brine discharges to the Dolores River causing the observed increase in salinity as the river crosses the Paradox Valley. To reduce salinity concentrations in the Dolores River, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) operates the Paradox Valley Unit (PVU). The PVU project consists of nine shallow brine pumping wells near the Dolores River and one deep disposal well where the brine is injected for disposal. When operational, the PVU pumping wells extract brine from the base of the alluvial aquifer that is piped and injected into a deep disposal well about 3 miles southwest of the PVU. The PVU became fully operational July 1, 1996, and by 2015, operation of the PVU had reduced salinity concentrations in the Dolores River by as much as 70 percent compared to pre-PVU conditions. In response to a 4.5 magnitude earthquake, injection operations, and thus PVU pumping, were ceased from March 2019 to June 2022. A trial period of PVU operation began in June 2022 with a reduced injection rate, and thus PVU pumping rate, of about two-thirds capacity to gather additional information and guide future operational decisions. In cooperation with Reclamation, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed this report to present the current (2023) understanding of groundwater and brine occurrence and discharge to the Dolores River in the Paradox Valley. Results from the compilation of spatial datasets, groundwater sampling and age dating, and aquifer tests are presented to provide improved understanding of the Paradox Valley hydrogeology, to supply datasets for a numerical groundwater-flow and brine-transport model, and to support future operations of the PVU. The hydrogeologic data provided herein, along with the most recent loading analysis for the Dolores River in the Paradox Valley, and a previous conceptual model for brine discharge to the river are used to present a conceptual understanding of groundwater occurrence in the Paradox Valley.

Colorado

Factors affecting the distribution of water-bearing fractures in the bedrock aquifers of West Virginia

Bedrock aquifers cover 23,601 square miles within the State of West Virginia and comprise 97.4 percent of the surficial area within the State; the remaining 2.6 percent (621 square miles) consists of alluvial sand-and-gravel and glacial outwash aquifers bordering the State’s major rivers. While West Virginia’s alluvial aquifers have been studied extensively, bedrock aquifers have only been characterized for studies completed in a few areas in Jefferson, McDowell, and Monroe Counties. Bedrock aquifers are water supplies for public supply, agriculture, industry, and residential homeowner use. In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection Division of Water and Waste Management, provides a statewide assessment of the occurrence and distribution of fractures within bedrock aquifers of the State and the various topographic, physiographic, and lithologic influences controlling the occurrence and distribution of bedrock fractures. The results of this study provide an increased understanding of the distribution of fractures in bedrock aquifers in West Virginia and help to verify trends that have been suspected for many years but were never well documented or verified by data. The results confirmed that the density of fractures and those that were determined to be water bearing decrease significantly with depth. A statistically significant difference in the density of fractures was observed at a depth of 215 feet for wells in the Appalachian Plateaus Physiographic Province’s and in the Valley and Ridge Physiographic Province’s aquifers; a higher density of fractures and water-bearing fractures were above a depth of 215 feet than below that depth. This is an important consideration when drilling wells for residential, commercial, industrial, or agricultural water supply. Abandoned underground coal mines are commonly believed to form large pools of water in the interconnected mine entries in abandoned room and pillar coal mines. Such pools of water can and do exist in abandoned underground coal mines, but many mines lack open entries and are held up by overburden strata and pillars that can collapse and form aquifers comprised of vast interconnected rubble zones (gob), especially in older mines. Data assessed for this study showed that shale-corrected values of effective porosity for limestone aquifers in West Virginia had a median value of 2 percent and an average value of 4 percent and generally are mineralized with low effective porosity. Argillaceous or sandy limestone has a median shale-corrected porosity of 4 percent and an average shale-corrected porosity of 5 percent. The median and average shale-corrected porosity of sandstone aquifers was estimated to be 14 percent, but the median shale-corrected porosity for argillaceous or calcareous sandstone was 5 percent and the average shale-corrected porosity for argillaceous or calcareous sandstone was 6 percent. Even though shale has a relatively high total sonic porosity compared to other lithologies, shale and siltstone had relatively low shale-corrected porosity, ranging from 0 to 2 percent. Well yields were previously documented to be highest in valley settings, lowest on hilltops, and intermediate on hillsides. Transmissivity data provided by this study confirm this general pattern within the Appalachian Plateaus Province; however, the Valley and Ridge Province does not follow this pattern. While still lowest on hilltop settings, the highest well yields were in hillside settings. The trend for the Valley and Ridge Province was likely skewed because of 9 high-yield wells specifically targeting deeper thin limestone units, such as the Tonoloway and Helderberg Limestones, at depths with transmissivity in excess of 2,000 feet squared per day in Mineral County, West Virginia, or targeting karst aquifers in Berkeley, Jefferson, or Greenbrier Counties, West Virginia. Finally, water-bearing fractures have been hypothesized to comprise a small number of all fractures within a typical bedrock well in West Virginia. Data collected for this study support this theory. A total of 3,403 fractures were identified during this study; 3,151 (92.6 percent) of those fractures are low-transmissive, and only 252 (7.4 percent) fractures are water-bearing. Even though a well may contain many fractures, less than 8 percent are considered water-bearing fractures.

West Virginia

Development of vegetation based soil quality indices for mineralized terrane in arid and semi-arid regions

Soil quality indices (SQIs) are often management driven and attempt to describe key relationships between above- and below-ground parameters. In terrestrial systems, indices that were initially developed and modified for agroecosystems have been applied to non-agricultural systems in increasing number. We develop an SQI in arid and semi-arid ecosystems of the Western US impacted by different types of geologic mineralization using the relationship between vegetation community parameters and soil abiotic and biotic properties. We analyze these relations in soils associated with three different mineralization types: podiform chromite, Cu/Mo porphyry, and acid-sulfate gold vein systems at four different sites in California and Nevada. Soil samples were collected from undisturbed soils in both mineralized and nearby unmineralized substrates as well as from waste rock and tailings. Aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), canopy cover and shrub density were measured for the vegetative communities. Minimum data sets were developed based on correlations between the soil and vegetation parameters, refined using principal components analysis, scored using non-linear functions, and combined into an overall SQI. The indices are comprised of one or two microbial parameters and three to six abiotic parameters, the latter consisting of nutrients and metals. Given the preliminary development of this approach, the parameters and combinations to arrive at an SQI for a given site cannot at this time be correlated or compared with that of another site. This SQI approach provides a means of quantifying disturbed ecosystem recovery resulting from mining, and could be applied to other disturbances in a way that readily distills the information for potential use by land managers. However, severely disturbed areas with little to no aboveground biomass, such as unreclaimed tailings, have likely crossed an ecological threshold that precludes the use of this type of monitoring tool.

California

Aboveground carbon stocks across a hydrological gradient: Ghost forests to non-tidal freshwater forested wetlands

Upper estuarine forested wetlands (UEFWs) play an important role in the sequestration of atmospheric carbon (C), which is facilitated by their position at the boundary of terrestrial and maritime environments but threatened by sea level rise. This study assessed the change in aboveground C stocks along the estuarine–riverine hydrogeomorphic gradient spanning salt-impacted freshwater tidal forested wetlands to freshwater forested wetlands in seasonally tidal and nontidal landscape positions. Standing stocks of C in forested wetlands were measured along two major coastal river systems, the Winyah Bay in South Carolina and the Savannah River in Georgia (USA), replicating and expanding a previous study to allow the assessment of change over time. Aboveground C stocks on these systems averaged 172.9 Mg C ha −1 , comparable to those found in UEFWs across the globe and distinct from the terrestrial forested ecosystems they are often considered to be a part of during large-scale C inventory efforts. Groundwater salinity conditions as low as 1.3 ppt were observed in conjunction with losses of aboveground C. When viewed in context alongside expected sea level rise and corresponding saltwater intrusion estimates, these data suggest a marked decrease in aboveground C stocks in forested wetlands situated in and around tidal estuaries.

Georgia, South Carolina

U-Pb scheelite ages of tungsten and antimony mineralization in the Stibnite-Yellow Pine district, central Idaho

The Stibnite-Yellow Pine district contains the largest antimony resource in the United States, as well as significant gold, and is a historic producer of tungsten. Application of in situ laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) direct dating of scheelite from two Au-Sb-W ore deposits, Yellow Pine and Hangar Flats, yielded an older group of U-Pb ages in the range of 60.0 ± 2.8 to 57.0 ± 1.1 Ma and a younger U-Pb age for scheelite intergrown with stibnite of 47.4 ± 1.1 Ma. These in situ analyses were calibrated by isotope dilution-thermal ionization mass spectrometry (ID-TIMS) U-Pb lower intercept ages of two coarsely crystalline scheelite samples that yielded ages of 57.52 ± 0.22 and 56.62 ± 0.16 Ma. Scheelite of the latter age is of sufficient quality to serve as a primary reference material for LA-ICP-MS scheelite U-Pb geochronology. The group of older U-Pb scheelite ages agrees with 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages of 56.9 ± 1.2 to 56.38 ± 0.54 Ma on adularia from Yellow Pine and Hangar Flats, whereas the younger U-Pb scheelite age is similar to an 40 Ar/ 39 Ar age of 46.00 ± 0.40 Ma on adularia from an epithermal gold-silver deposit in the adjacent Thunder Mountain caldera. Our results indicate that the main stage of tungsten mineralization occurred at ca. 57 Ma, whereas the main stage of antimony mineralization occurred at ca. 47 Ma—thereby providing first-time age constraints for antimony and tungsten mineralization in the Stibnite-Yellow Pine district.

Idaho

Landsliding follows signatures of wildfire history and vegetative regrowth in a steep coastal shrubland

Five years after the deadly and destructive 9 January 2018 Montecito debris flows (Santa Barbara County, California, USA), an atmospheric river storm on 9 January 2023 triggered widespread landsliding that affected many of the same drainages in the Santa Ynez Mountains. Using high-resolution aerial imagery, we identified >10,000 landslides over an ∼160 km 2 area. Most of the landslides were shallow (<1 m in depth) translational debris slides that initiated on steep (∼40°), south-facing hillslopes, with the highest incidence of landsliding in a sandstone-dominated bedrock unit. The landslides mobilized into debris flows and delivered substantial quantities of sediment downstream, which contributed to costly infrastructure impairments. We detected order-of-magnitude differences in landslide density across the study area that could not be attributed to variations in geomorphology (topographic aspect and slope), geology (bedrock type), or hydrology (seasonal antecedent rainfall, peak hourly storm rainfall intensity, total storm rainfall), which are usually considered relevant factors for shallow landsliding. Rather, we found that vegetation regrowth following wildfire was likely a relevant factor associated with the highly variable landslide densities. Hillslopes with less and different types of vegetation regrowth after fire appear to have been more susceptible to shallow landslides. We identify a possible vegetation control on postfire landsliding, which highlights an opportunity for hypothesis testing using more advanced techniques to track the evolution of vegetation cover and vegetation type in steep shrubland environments following wildfire.

California

Assessment of extreme subsurface hydrologic conditions captured during atmospheric river storms in the San Francisco Bay area (California, USA) with applications to shallow landslide early warning

An increase in soil pore water pressure is the typical trigger for the majority of landslides caused by rainfall. Atmospheric river storms, common to the west coast of North America during the winter season, can deliver landslide triggering rainfall resulting in severe impacts to coastal communities. Using a network of hydrologic monitoring stations situated within landslide-prone terrain in the San Francisco Bay area of California (USA), we assess the meteorologic conditions and resulting hydrologic and landslide response resulting from eight consecutive storm events that caused thousands of shallow landslides during the winter of 2022–2023. We find disparate hydrological responses and resultant degrees of observed landsliding ranging from < 1 landslide/km2 to 18 landslides/km2 at the monitoring sites that reflect the interplay and differences between rainfall delivery, subsurface hydrological characteristics, and geotechnical properties at each site. Antecedent soil moisture from both early season rainfall and the first storm in the sequence played a critical role in setting up some hillslopes for failure. Subsequent storms then generated elevated pore water pressures for several hours with associated landsliding. However, we find that the occurrence of widespread landsliding required not only sufficient pore water pressure magnitude in susceptible hillslopes, but also full and prolonged effective soil saturation throughout hillslope profiles. Landslides may still occur at lower values and durations of effective saturation but are likely to be less extensive regionally. We present these findings within the context of research directions and improvements to landslide early warning systems first suggested by researchers 40 years ago.

California

Strong shaking from past Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes encoded in coastal landforms

Strong earthquakes along subduction zones are often devastating events, but sparse records along some tectonic margins limit our understanding of seismic hazards. Constraining shaking intensities is critical, especially in subduction zones with infrequent but large-magnitude earthquakes like the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ), where the lack of recorded ground motions has led to uncertainty in the severity and potential impacts of future earthquakes. Here we fill this observational gap with a novel inventory of quantitative estimates of past shaking intensities from geotechnical modeling of coastal landforms. One hundred fifty-four deep-seated landslides and 65 fragile geologic features constrain minimum and maximum peak ground accelerations, respectively. These estimates are broadly consistent with model predictions of M9 ruptures, suggesting strong shaking of 0.4–0.8 g during past CSZ earthquakes. Local discrepancies between our geologic shaking constraints and earthquake simulations may inform past rupture behavior, leading to better predictions of shaking intensity for future earthquakes.

California, Oregon, Washington

Comparison of two approaches for determining ground-water discharge and pumpage in the lower Arkansas River Basin, Colorado, 1997-98

In March 1994, the Colorado Division of Water Resources (CDWR) adopted “Rules Governing the Measurement of Tributary Ground Water Diversions Located in the Arkansas River Basin” (Office of the State Engineer, 1994); these initial rules were amended in February 1996 (Office of the State Engineer, 1996). The amended rules require users of wells that divert tributary ground water to annually report the water pumped monthly by each well. The rules allow a well owner to report the pumpage measured by a totalizing flowmeter (TFM) or pumpage determined from electrical power data and a power conversion coefficient (PCC) (Hurr and Litke, 1989). Opinions by representatives of the State of Kansas, presented before the Special Master hearing a court case [State of Kansas v. State of Colorado, No. 105 Original (1996)] concerning post-Compact well pumping, stated that the PCC approach does not provide the same level of accuracy and reliability as a TFM when used to determine pumpage. In 1997, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the CDWR, began a 2-year study to compare ground-water pumpage estimates made using the TFM and the PCC approaches. The study area was along the Arkansas River between Pueblo, Colorado, and the Colorado-Kansas State line (fig. 1). The two approaches for estimating ground-water discharge and pumpage were compared for more than 100 wells completed in the alluvial aquifer of the Arkansas River Basin. The TFM approach uses an inline flowmeter to directly measure instantaneous discharge and the total volume of water pumped at a well. The PCC approach uses electrical power consumption records and a power conversion coefficient to estimate the pumpage at ground-water wells. This executive summary describes the results of the comparison of the two approaches. Specifically, (1) the differences in instantaneous discharge measured with three portable flowmeters and measured with an inline TFM are evaluated, and the statistical differences in paired instantaneous discharge between the two approaches are determined; (2) short- and long-term variations in the PCC’s are presented; (3) differences in pumpage between the two approaches are evaluated, and the statistical differences in pumpage between the two approaches are determined; (4) potential sources of discrepancy between pumpage estimates are discussed; and (5) differences in total network pumpage using the two approaches are presented. During the irrigation seasons of 1997 and 1998, instantaneous discharge and electrical power demand were measured at randomly selected wells to determine PCC’s. At more than 100 wells, the PCC’s determined during the 1998 season were applied to total electrical power consumption data that was recorded between the initial and final readings at each network well site in 1998 to estimate total ground-water pumpage. At each site, an inline TFM was installed in a full-flowing, acceptable test section of pipe on the discharge side of the pump where the measurement of discharge was made. Measurements of instantaneous ground-water discharge also were made using three different types of portable flowmeters. The average velocity multiplied by the cross-sectional area of the discharge pipe was used to compute the discharge in gallons per minute. Whenever possible, discharge measurements were made at each network site using all three types of portable flowmeters.

Colorado

Natural source zone depletion of crude oil in the subsurface: Processes controlling mass losses of individual compounds

At many petroleum hydrocarbon spill sites, residual spilled product forms a long-term source of groundwater contamination. The phrase source zone natural depletion is used to refer to the mass loss rates. Overall mass lost under environmental conditions was analyzed using conservative biomarker concentrations for a 1979 oil spill in northern Minnesota, USA. After 40–41 years, an average of 50% of the mass was lost with values ranging from 22% to 57% depending on location. It is also important to understand the composition changes in the source. To understand controls on the losses of individual compounds, concentrations of volatile hydrocarbons in oil samples were compared with aqueous solubilities, and pore-space oil saturations. The results of the comparison show that losses of the oil compounds were controlled by pore-space oil saturations, solubility, and susceptibility to degradation under methanogenic conditions. Compounds that degrade under methanogenic conditions, including toluene, o -xylene, and n -alkanes are more depleted compared to benzene, ethylbenzene, and m - and p -xylene for which losses are dominated by dissolution. These rates and compound-specific behaviors form a foundation for improved modeling approaches and risk analyses.

Minnesota

Mapping potential sensitivity to hydrogeomorphic change in the UMRS riverscape

In 2020 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of the Upper Mississippi River Restoration (UMRR) Program, began a new project to characterize potential hydrogeomorphic change associated with hydrogeomorphic units (HGUs) and their catenae (units linked by their association with sediment sources and flow origins). The goal of the project was to develop a geographic information system (GIS) database of HGUs for the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) available to both scientists and river managers working on UMRR studies and HREP planning and design studies. The characterization was based on a hydrogeomorphic change hierarchical classification developed previously for the UMRS. The products were generated with automated techniques in a GIS using systemic datasets. Landforms were mapped from the 2015 UMRS topobathymetric dataset with geomorphon (shape-based) tools tailored for the large riverscape, valley bottom environments in the UMRS. A clustering analysis was applied to the resulting landforms to identify HGUs associated with zones of perennial low flows, bankfull flows, and overbank floodplains. Catenae were assembled based on the proximity of the units to the main channel, tributary mouths, and side channels from previously published aquatic areas (USACE, 2018) coupled with least-cost flowpath linkages between potential sediment origins and planform change units developed by Rogala, Fitzpatrick, and Henderson (2020). These GIS-based analyses were successful at identifying a range of HGUs using an automated technique with available data across the entire riverscape, with emphasis on those that have the potential for hydrogeomorphic change. Most of the resulting features are depositional, as expected in a large river system. However, this is the first attempt of linking tributary inputs, side channel erosion and levee breaches with their depositional counterparts. The approach was successfully piloted in Pools 8 and 10 in the Upper Impounded Reach and Pool 14 in the Lower Impounded Reach, with next steps for application in reaches of the unimpounded section and Illinois River. This report emphasizes results from Pool 10, which was the focus of most of our attention during the pilot phase.

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