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At least 451 records · Page 25Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Reevaluation of an adaptive management framework for invasive Grass Carp within Lake Erie

Objective Response efforts to control invasive species frequently require making decisions in the face of substantial uncertainty. Adaptive management, which emphasizes learning during the process of managing, can be useful in cases where uncertainty impedes the decision-making process. Here, we describe how technical and institutional learning led to reformulating decision-making elements, known as double-loop learning, and how uncertainty stemming from a lack of knowledge influenced the selection of alternative strategies in an ongoing adaptive management process for invasive Grass Carp Ctenopharyngodon idella in Lake Erie. Methods When response efforts began, little was known about the population dynamics, ecology, and biology of Grass Carp within the lake. The availability of funding for sustained response efforts was also unknown. A network population model was constructed that relied heavily on values and estimates from limited data to project adult Grass Carp abundance in Lake Erie and evaluate the ability of various response strategies to achieve the desired objectives. After this initial assessment, the collection of new information was emphasized as response efforts increased to aid future assessments. With this expanded knowledge and including additional input from stakeholders, we modified the population model, evaluated new response scenarios, refined objectives, and examined the influence of uncertainty (parameter and expert opinion) on Grass Carp response efforts. Results Under uncertainty of population model parameters and expert opinion, the value-of-information analysis revealed that uncertainties in spawning deterrent efficacy, survival, and the underlying stock–recruitment relationship were important and could change the preferred decision. The efficiency of spawning deterrents influenced the preferred decision outcome among alternative strategies, particularly when >80% of fish were allowed to pass and spawn, indicating that a deterrent may not be worth implementing if passing rates are above this threshold. Conclusions We thereby demonstrate the benefits for invasive species management programs of implementing learning and resolving uncertainties within an adaptive management framework to improve decision making.

Lake Erie↗
USGS2018

Hierarchical modeling assessment of the influence of watershed stressors on fish and invertebrate species in Gulf of Mexico estuaries

The northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) spans five U.S. states and encompasses estuaries that vary greatly in size, shape, upstream river input, eutrophication status, and biotic communities. Given the variability among these estuaries, assessing their biological condition relative to anthropogenic stressors is challenging, but important to regional fisheries management and habitat conservation initiatives. Here, a hierarchical generalized linear modeling approach was developed to predict species presence in bottom trawl samples, using data from 33 estuaries over a nineteen-year study period. This is the first GoM estuary assessment to leverage Gulf-wide trawl data to develop species-level indicators and a quantitative index of estuary disturbance. After controlling for sources of variability at the sampling event, estuary, state, and sampling program levels, our approach screened for statistically significant relationships between watershed-level anthropogenic stressors and fish and invertebrate species presence. Modeling results indicate species level indicators with sensitivities to landscape stressor gradients. The most influential stressors include total anthropogenic land use, crop land use, and the number of toxic release sites in upstream watersheds, as well as agriculture in the shoreline buffer, each of which was significantly related to between 21% and 39% of the 57 species studied. Averaging the effects of these influential stressors across species, we develop a quantitative estuary stress index that can be compared against benchmark conditions. In general, disturbance levels were greatest in estuaries west of the Mississippi delta and in highly developed estuaries in southwest Florida. Estuaries from the Florida panhandle to the eastern Mississippi delta had less anthropogenic stress.

Gulf of Mexico↗
USGS2015

Predicting Brook Trout occurrence in stream reaches throughout their native range in the eastern United States

The Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis is an important species of conservation concern in the eastern USA. We developed a model to predict Brook Trout population status within individual stream reaches throughout the species’ native range in the eastern USA. We utilized hierarchical logistic regression with Bayesian estimation to predict Brook Trout occurrence probability, and we allowed slopes and intercepts to vary among ecological drainage units (EDUs). Model performance was similar for 7,327 training samples and 1,832 validation samples based on the area under the receiver operating curve (∼0.78) and Cohen's kappa statistic (0.44). Predicted water temperature had a strong negative effect on Brook Trout occurrence probability at the stream reach scale and was also negatively associated with the EDU average probability of Brook Trout occurrence (i.e., EDU-specific intercepts). The effect of soil permeability was positive but decreased as EDU mean soil permeability increased. Brook Trout were less likely to occur in stream reaches surrounded by agricultural or developed land cover, and an interaction suggested that agricultural land cover also resulted in an increased sensitivity to water temperature. Our model provides a further understanding of how Brook Trout are shaped by habitat characteristics in the region and yields maps of stream-reach-scale predictions, which together can be used to support ongoing conservation and management efforts. These decision support tools can be used to identify the extent of potentially suitable habitat, estimate historic habitat losses, and prioritize conservation efforts by selecting suitable stream reaches for a given action. Future work could extend the model to account for additional landscape or habitat characteristics, include biotic interactions, or estimate potential Brook Trout responses to climate and land use changes.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse↗
USGS1997

Habitat use and feeding ecology of riverine juvenile American shad

We examined premigratory populations of American shad Alosa sapidissima in the upper Delaware River to determine habitat and microhabitat use, differential prey use among habitat types, and habitat suitability indices for this previously unmodeled life stage. Both seining and diving techniques were used to quantify juveniles in six habitat types with six physical habitat covariables. Plankton and drift samples also were compared with stomach contents within habitats. We found no relation between relative abundance of juveniles and habitat type, which suggests general use of most riverine habitats. Physical habitat variables likewise did not affect use of habitat within ranges recorded, with two exceptions: (1) a positive relationship between abundance and water temperature in riffles and (2) a positive relationship between abundance and percent submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) cover in SAV habitats. Opportunistic use of prey items was apparent; however, juveniles selected chironomid larvae and pupae and adult terrestrial insects and avoided ephemeropterans. Overlap between diets and available prey was high for most habitat types ( C λ mean = 0.71), especially for riffles ( C λ = 0.91). However, overlap for juveniles foraging at tributary mouths, where they strongly selected adult terrestrial insects, was low ( C λ = 0.49).

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2015

Trophic ontogeny of fluvial Bull Trout and seasonal predation on Pacific Salmon in a riverine food web

Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus are typically top predators in their host ecosystems. The Skagit River in northwestern Washington State contains Bull Trout and Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha populations that are among the largest in the Puget Sound region and also contains a regionally large population of steelhead O. mykiss (anadromous Rainbow Trout). All three species are listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Our objective was to determine the trophic ecology of Bull Trout, especially their role as predators and consumers in the riverine food web. We seasonally sampled distribution, diets, and growth of Bull Trout in main-stem and tributary habitats during 2007 and winter–spring 2008. Consumption rates were estimated with a bioenergetics model to (1) determine the annual and seasonal contributions of different prey types to Bull Trout energy budgets and (2) estimate the potential impacts of Bull Trout predation on juvenile Pacific salmon populations. Salmon carcasses and eggs contributed approximately 50% of the annual energy budget for large Bull Trout in main-stem habitats, whereas those prey types were largely inaccessible to smaller Bull Trout in tributary habitats. The remaining 50% of the energy budget was acquired by eating juvenile salmon, resident fishes, and immature aquatic insects. Predation on listed Chinook Salmon and steelhead/Rainbow Trout was highest during winter and spring (January–June). Predation on juvenile salmon differed between the two study years, likely due to the dominant odd-year spawning cycle for Pink Salmon O. gorbuscha . The population impact on ocean- and stream-type Chinook Salmon was negligible, whereas the impact on steelhead/Rainbow Trout was potentially very high. Due to the ESA-listed status of Bull Trout, steelhead, and Chinook Salmon, the complex trophic interactions in this drainage provide both challenges and opportunities for creative adaptive management strategies.

Washington↗
USGS2025

Revised length categories and standard weight equation for Northern Pikeminnow

Objective Length and weight indices (e.g., proportional size distribution, relative weight) provide standardized benchmarks that are useful for comparing groups of fish, identifying ecological interactions, and evaluating the effect of management actions. However, the current length categories and standard weight ( W s ) equation for Northern Pikeminnow Ptychocheilus oregonensis , a species of important management focus in the Pacific Northwest, were developed using limited data, unclear methods, and no validation. As such, we sought to revise the length categories and W s equation for Northern Pikeminnow. Methods We used the all-tackle world record to develop length categories for Northern Pikeminnow. We compiled data from 100,663 Northern Pikeminnow from 114 populations in Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia to develop a revised W s equation. Most fish were measured in fork length (FL), so we converted total lengths (TLs) to FLs using the equation TL = −2.301 + 0.916(FL); r 2 = 0.998. We used the regression line percentile, linear empirical percentile (EmP), and quadratic EmP methods to develop 50th percentile and 75th percentile W s equations. We then assessed length-related biases in our W s equations and the previously published equation. Results We propose minimum FLs of 17 cm (7 inches; stock), 26 cm (10 inches; quality), 35 cm (14 inches; preferred), 41 cm (16 inches; memorable), and 51 cm (20 inches; trophy) for proportional size distribution calculations. The previously published W s equation exhibited substantial length-related biases according to the Willis and weighted empirical quartile method tests. The EmP 50th-percentile W s equation was the only equation that we evaluated that did not exhibit length-related bias. The EmP 50th-percentile W s equation was the best performing equation (i.e., no length-related bias detected). The equation is log 10 ( W s ) = −5.258 + 3.135(FL), where W s is in grams and FL is in millimeters. The equation is valid for Northern Pikeminnow 90–580 mm FL. Conclusion The length categories, length conversion, and W s equation presented here will aid fisheries professionals in the study and management of Northern Pikeminnow populations.

British Columbia, Idaho, Montana, Oregon Washingto↗
USGS2014

Ecological and evolutionary patterns of freshwater maturation in Pacific and Atlantic salmonines

Reproductive tactics and migratory strategies in Pacific and Atlantic salmonines are inextricably linked through the effects of migration (or lack thereof) on age and size at maturity. In this review, we focus on the ecological and evolutionary patterns of freshwater maturation in salmonines, a key process resulting in the diversification of their life histories. We demonstrate that the energetics of maturation and reproduction provides a unifying theme for understanding both the proximate and ultimate causes of variation in reproductive schedules among species, populations, and the sexes. We use probabilistic maturation reaction norms to illustrate how variation in individual condition, in terms of body size, growth rate, and lipid storage, influences the timing of maturation. This useful framework integrates both genetic and environmental contributions to conditional strategies for maturation and, in doing so, demonstrates how flexible life histories can be both heritable and subject to strong environmental influences. We review evidence that the propensity for freshwater maturation in partially anadromous species is predictable across environmental gradients at geographic and local spatial scales. We note that growth is commonly associated with the propensity for freshwater maturation, but that life-history responses to changes in growth caused by temperature may be strikingly different than changes caused by differences in food availability. We conclude by exploring how contemporary management actions can constrain or promote the diversity of maturation phenotypes in Pacific and Atlantic salmonines and caution against underestimating the role of freshwater maturing forms in maintaining the resiliency of these iconic species.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗
USGS2022

Trout responses to stocking rates and river discharge within a southeast U.S. hydropeaking tailwater

Freshwater fish populations often exist in systems characterized by novel ecological processes resulting from human alteration. Salmonid populations embedded within coldwater sections of warmwater rivers are spatially constrained by habitat availability. Tailwater fish contend with fluctuating river discharges and density-dependent processes associated with fish stocking and exploitation. Salmonid populations sustained through stocking versus natural reproduction may respond differently to changes in hydrologic patterns (e.g., hydropeaking) as well as declines in fish abundance. We assessed differences between stocked (Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss ) and naturalized (Brown Trout Salmo trutta ) trout populations in Greers Ferry tailwater, Arkansas, regarding (1) spatial and temporal patterns of mean length, electrofishing catch rates, and relative condition following reduced number of stocked Rainbow Trout and (2) evidence that hydrologic characteristics and fish stocking intensity influenced relative condition. A 56% reduction in Rainbow Trout stocking did not result in systemwide change in mean length or relative abundance for Rainbow Trout or Brown Trout over the 16-year study period. Hydrologic variability, where river discharge spanned both reduced and elevated levels, positively influenced condition of both Rainbow Trout and Brown Trout. Assessment of survival of stocked Rainbow Trout may aid in further refining the timing and amount of stocking needed to sustain the population at a desired abundance. Further, assessing the influence of stocking fewer but perhaps larger (in terms of mean length) fish to meet management goals may be warranted. The persistent differences in relative abundance among river sections can inform management actions directed at Brown Trout, including harvest regulations. Such regulations may aid in reaching desired management goals, including abundance and mean length targets not observed after reduced stocking.

Arkansas↗
USGS2011

Development of a bioenergetics model for age-0 American shad

Bioenergetics modeling can be used as a tool to investigate the impact of non-native age-0 American shad ( Alosa sapidissima ) on reservoir and estuary food webs. The model can increase our understanding of how these fish influence lower trophic levels as well as predatory fish populations that feed on juvenile salmonids. Bioenergetics modeling can be used to investigate ecological processes, evaluate alternative research hypotheses, provide decision support, and quantitative prediction. Bioenergetics modeling has proven to be extremely useful in fisheries research (Ney et al. 1993,Chips and Wahl 2008, Petersen et al. 2008). If growth and diet parameters are known, the bioenergetics model can be used to quantify the relative amount of zooplankton or insects consumed by age-0 American shad. When linked with spatial and temporal information on fish abundance, model output can guide inferential hypothesis development to demonstrate where the greatest impacts of age-0 American shad might occur. Bioenergetics modeling is particularly useful when research questions involve multiple species and trophic levels (e.g. plankton communities). Bioenergetics models are mass-balance equations where the energy acquired from food is partitioned between maintenance costs, waste products, and growth (Winberg 1956). Specifically, the Wisconsin bioenergetics model (Hanson et al. 1997) is widely used in fisheries science. Researchers have extensively tested, reviewed, and improved on this modeling approach for over 30 years (Petersen et al. 2008). Development of a bioenergetics model for any species requires three key components: 1) determine physiological parameters for the model through laboratory experiments or incorporate data from a closely related species, 2) corroboration of the model with growth and consumption estimates from independent research, and 3) error analysis of model parameters. Wisconsin bioenergetics models have been parameterized for many of the salmonids and predatory fishes encountered in the lower Columbia River (Petersen and Ward 1999). The Wisconsin bioenergetics model has not been developed for American shad, however Limburg (1996) parameterized a simplified bioenergetics growth model for this species. A common application for the Wisconsin bioenergetics model is to estimate the consumption or growth of a fish population under different temperature and feeding scenarios (Ney 1993). One advantage of the bioenergetics approach is that consumption can be estimated without direct field measurements of predation rate (prey·predator -1 · day -1 ; Petersen and Ward 1999). Field estimates of fish consumption are time consuming and costly to determine, and estimates may show wide variance due to environmental and sampling variability. However, the consumption parameters used in a newly developed bioenergetics model must be verified with field and laboratory estimates of consumption (Ney 1993). The objective of this research was to parameterize a Wisconsin bioenergetics model for age-0 American shad using published physiological data on American shad and closely related alosine species. The American shad bioenergetics model will be used as a tool to explore various hypotheses about how age-0 American shad directly and indirectly affect Columbia River salmon through ecological interactions in lower Columbia River food webs. One over-arching focus of the larger research project was to identify potential interactions between age-0 American shad and juvenile salmonids, addressing potential outcomes through bioenergetics modeling scenarios. This report contains two bioenergetics modeling applications to demonstrate how these models can be used to address management questions and direct research effort. The first modeling application uses the American shad bioenergetics model described in this report to explore prey consumption by age-0 American shad (Chapter 1, this report). Dietary data on age-0 American shad and previously published reports on the diet of juvenile fall Chinook salmon (Rondorf et al. 1990, USGS unpublished data) suggested there might be considerable dietary overlap between these species in the lower Columbia River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was interested in using the American shad bioenergetics model to explore hypotheses concerning dietary overlap between age-0 American shad and emigrating fall Chinook salmon. The second modeling application uses the fall Chinook salmon bioenergetics model (Koehler et al. 2006) to explore the growth potential of juvenile fall Chinook salmon predating on age-0 American shad in the lower Columbia River. This modeling was based dietary information on a small number of age-0 fall Chinook salmon (n = 13) collected in John Day Reservoir in 1994 - 1996 (unpublished USGS data). Analysis of this dietary data found that these salmonids were feeding primarily on age-0 American shad (> 75% by weight).

Oregon↗
USGS2026

A novel method for quantifying streambed penetrability to inform benthic habitat assessment

Objective Penetrability of streambed sediments is important for the ecological functioning of many benthic organisms, yet there is ambiguity in terminology associated with this concept and there is no standardized method of penetrability measurement available to scientists and resource managers. The goal of our study was to better define the terms of compaction and penetrability as they relate to streambed substrate and to advance the measurement techniques for assessing penetrability of bed sediments in gravel-bed streams. Methods We tested the performance of a modified penetrometer method in 12 different substrate configurations in the laboratory and used the data to determine the relationship between penetration depth and substrate characteristics. We then simulated additional sampling effort and used bootstrapping methods to provide guidance on the number of samples required to achieve consistent results. Finally, we tested the device in a field setting to validate our laboratory and simulation results. Results Depth of penetration was negatively related to increasing substrate particle diameter and number of particle size-classes in both laboratory and field tests. Mean depth of penetration and CV stabilized after five samples, but variation remained high in scenarios containing large-grained particles. Conclusions Our results show that the device has application in gravel-bed streams but may require high amounts of sampling effort to capture variation in streams dominated by large substrate. We discuss the uses and limitations of this method for estimating substrate penetrability and provide guidance on interpretation of the estimates that it produces.

Transaction of the American Fisheries Society↗
USGS2022

Open removal models with temporary emigration and population dynamics to inform invasive animal management

Removal sampling data are the primary source of monitoring information for many populations (e.g., invasive species, fisheries). Population dynamics, temporary emigration, and imperfect detection are common sources of variation in monitoring data and are key parameters for informing management. We developed two open robust-design removal models for simultaneously modeling population dynamics, temporary emigration, and imperfect detection: a random walk linear trend model (estimable without ancillary information), and a 2-age class informed population model (InfoPM, closely related to integrated population models) that incorporated prior information for age-structured vital rates and relative juvenile availability. We applied both models to multiyear, removal trapping time-series of a large invasive lizard (Argentine black and white tegu, Salvator merianae ) in three management areas of South Florida to evaluate the effectiveness of management programs. Although estimates of the two models were similar, the InfoPMs generally returned more precise estimates, partitioned dynamics into births, deaths, net migration, and provided a decision support tool to predict population dynamics under different effort scenarios while accounting for uncertainty. Trends in tegu superpopulation abundance estimates were increasing in two management areas despite generally high removal rates. However, tegu abundance appeared to decline in the Core management area, where trapping density was the highest and immigration the lowest. Finally, comparing abundance predictions of no-removal scenarios to those estimated in each management area suggested significant population reductions due to management. These results suggest that local tegu population control via systematic trapping may be feasible with high enough trap density and limited immigration; and highlights the value of these trapping programs. We provided the first estimates of tegu abundance, capture probabilities, and population dynamics, which is critical for effective management. Furthermore, our models are applicable to a wide range of monitoring programs (e.g., carcass recovery or removal point-counts).

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2017

Bioenergetics models to estimate numbers of larval lampreys consumed by smallmouth bass in Elk Creek, Oregon

Nonnative fishes have been increasingly implicated in the decline of native fishes in the Pacific Northwest. Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu were introduced into the Umpqua River in southwest Oregon in the early 1960s. The spread of Smallmouth Bass throughout the basin coincided with a decline in counts of upstream-migrating Pacific Lampreys Entosphenus tridentatus . This suggested the potential for ecological interactions between Smallmouth Bass and Pacific Lampreys, as well as freshwater-resident Western Brook Lampreys Lampetra richardsoni . To evaluate the potential effects of Smallmouth Bass on lampreys, we sampled diets of Smallmouth Bass and used bioenergetics models to estimate consumption of larval lampreys in a segment of Elk Creek, a tributary to the lower Umpqua River. We captured 303 unique Smallmouth Bass (mean: 197 mm and 136 g) via angling in July and September. We combined information on Smallmouth Bass diet and energy density with other variables (temperature, body size, growth, prey energy density) in a bioenergetics model to estimate consumption of larval lampreys. Larval lampreys were found in 6.2% of diet samples, and model estimates indicated that the Smallmouth Bass we captured consumed 925 larval lampreys in this 2-month study period. When extrapolated to a population estimate of Smallmouth Bass in this segment, we estimated 1,911 larval lampreys were consumed between July and September. Although the precision of these estimates was low, this magnitude of consumption suggests that Smallmouth Bass may negatively affect larval lamprey populations.

Oregon↗
USGS2018

Brown trout in the Lees Ferry reach of the Colorado River—Evaluation of causal hypotheses and potential interventions

Over the period 2014–2016, the number of nonnative brown trout (Salmo trutta) captured during routine monitoring in the Lees Ferry reach of the Colorado River, downstream of Glen Canyon Dam, began increasing. Management agencies and stakeholders have questioned whether the increase in brown trout in the Lees Ferry reach represents a threat to the endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha), to the rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) sport fishery, or to other resources of concern. In this report, we evaluate the evidence for the expansion of brown trout in the Lees Ferry reach, consider a range of causal hypotheses for this expansion, examine the likely efficacy of several potential management interventions to reduce brown trout, and analyze the effects of those interventions on other resources of concern. The brown trout population at Lees Ferry historically consisted of a small number of large fish supported by low levels of immigration from downstream reaches. This population is now showing signs of sustained successful reproduction and is on the cusp of recruiting locally hatched fish into the spawning class, based on analysis with a new integrated population model. The proximate causes of this change in status are a large pulse of immigration in the fall of 2014 and higher reproductive rates in 2015–2017. The ultimate causes of this change are not clear. The pulse of immigrants from downstream reaches in fall 2014 may have been induced by three sequential high-flow releases from the dam in November of 2012–2014, but may also have been the result of a unique set of circumstances unrelated to dam operations. The increase in reproduction may have been the result of any number of changes, including an Allee effect, warmer water temperatures, a decrease in competition from rainbow trout, or fall high-flow releases. Correlations over space and time among predictor variables do not allow us to make a clear inference about the cause of the changes. Under a null causal model, and without any changes to management, we predict there is a 36-percent chance the brown trout population at Lees Ferry will not show sustained growth, and will remain around a mean size of 5,800 adults, near its current size; in contrast, we predict there is a 64-percent chance that the population has a positive intrinsic growth rate and will increase 3–10 fold over the next 20 years. A humpback chub population model linked to the brown trout model suggests an increase of brown trout of this magnitude could lead to declines in the minimum adult humpback chub population over the same time period. Forecasts of rainbow trout abundance, however, suggest that increased abundance of brown trout in the Lees Ferry reach does not pose a threat to the rainbow trout fishery there. There are interventions that may be effective in moderating the growth of the brown trout population in the Lees Ferry reach of the Colorado River. Across causal hypotheses, we predict that removal strategies (for example, a concerted electrofishing effort or an incentivized take program targeted at large brown trout) could reduce brown trout abundance by approximately 50 percent relative to status quo management. Reductions in the frequency or a change in the seasonal timing of high-flow releases from Glen Canyon Dam could be even more effective, but only under the causal hypotheses that involve effects of such releases on immigration or reproduction. Brown trout management flows— dam releases designed to strand young fish at a vulnerable stage—may be able to reduce brown trout abundance to some degree, but are not forecast to be the most effective strategy under any causal hypothesis. We predict that the alternative management interventions would have effects on other resource goals as well, and the pattern of these effects differs across causal hypotheses. The removal strategies would incur direct costs (on the order of $7 million over 20 years) and the mechanical removal strategy is unethical from the perspective of several tribes. The strategies that involve reducing the frequency of high-flow releases from Glen Canyon Dam would decrease the ability to transport and store sediment in the ecosystem, potentially undermining goals associated with sandbar building, recreation, and riparian vegetation, but would increase hydropower revenue. Trout management flows would reduce hydropower revenue. From the standpoint of humpback chub, the alternative strategies largely follow the effect on brown trout; when brown trout abundance is reduced, predation pressure decreases, and humpback chub viability is predicted to increase, but the variation in predicted chub viability is not large across strategies or causal hypotheses. To design a response to brown trout, management agencies will need to navigate both the tradeoffs among resources goals and the uncertainty in the causes of the brown trout expansion. Continued monitoring, possibly coupled with new research or experimental management actions that better inform demographic and ecological dynamics, can help to reduce the causal uncertainty.

Arizona↗
USGS2014

Developing and testing temperature models for regulated systems: a case study on the Upper Delaware River

Water temperature is an important driver of many processes in riverine ecosystems. If reservoirs are present, their releases can greatly influence downstream water temperatures. Models are important tools in understanding the influence these releases may have on the thermal regimes of downstream rivers. In this study, we developed and tested a suite of models to predict river temperature at a location downstream of two reservoirs in the Upper Delaware River (USA), a section of river that is managed to support a world-class coldwater fishery. Three empirical models were tested, including a Generalized Least Squares Model with a cosine trend (GLScos), AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). We also tested one mechanistic Heat Flux Model (HFM) that was based on energy gain and loss. Predictor variables used in model development included climate data (e.g., solar radiation, wind speed, etc.) collected from a nearby weather station and temperature and hydrologic data from upstream U.S. Geological Survey gages. Models were developed with a training dataset that consisted of data from 2008 to 2011; they were then independently validated with a test dataset from 2012. Model accuracy was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and index of agreement (d) statistics. Model forecast success was evaluated using baseline-modified prime index of agreement (md) at the one, three, and five day predictions. All five models accurately predicted daily mean river temperature across the entire training dataset (RMSE = 0.58–1.311, NSE = 0.99–0.97, d = 0.98–0.99); ARIMA was most accurate (RMSE = 0.57, NSE = 0.99), but each model, other than ARIMA, showed short periods of under- or over-predicting observed warmer temperatures. For the training dataset, all models besides ARIMA had overestimation bias (PBIAS = −0.10 to −1.30). Validation analyses showed all models performed well; the HFM model was the most accurate compared other models (RMSE = 0.92, both NSE = 0.98, d = 0.99) and the ARIMA model was least accurate (RMSE = 2.06, NSE = 0.92, d = 0.98); however, all models had an overestimation bias (PBIAS = −4.1 to −10.20). Aside from the one day forecast ARIMA model (md = 0.53), all models forecasted fairly well at the one, three, and five day forecasts (md = 0.77–0.96). Overall, we were successful in developing models predicting daily mean temperature across a broad range of temperatures. These models, specifically the GLScos, ANN, and HFM, may serve as important tools for predicting conditions and managing thermal releases in regulated river systems such as the Delaware River. Further model development may be important in customizing predictions for particular biological or ecological needs, or for particular temporal or spatial scales.

Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania↗
USGS2016

Do water level fluctuations influence production of walleye and yellow perch young-of-the-year in large northern lakes?

Many ecological processes depend on the regular rise and fall of water levels (WLs), and artificial manipulations to WL regimes can impair important ecosystem services. Previous research has suggested that differences in WL between late summer and early spring may alter the suitability of shoals used by Walleyes Sander vitreus for spawning. Other species, such as the Yellow Perch Perca flavescens , are unlikely to be affected in the same way by WL fluctuations because their spawning requirements are quite different. We used 11–23 years of data from six northern Minnesota lakes to assess the effects of WL fluctuations on the abundances of young-of-the-year (age-0) Walleyes and Yellow Perch. In two lakes (Rainy Lake and Lake Kabetogama), a change in WL management occurred in 2000, after which these lakes saw increased age-0 Walleye abundance, while the other study lakes experienced decreases or no change. Rainy Lake and Lake Kabetogama also had increases in age-0 Yellow Perch, but another study lake did also. We used partial least-squares regression to assess whether WL metrics were associated with variation in age-0 Walleye and Yellow Perch abundances, but WL metrics were seldom associated with age-0 abundance for either species. Our analysis suggested a potential influence of WL regulation on age-0 Walleye abundance, but we found no evidence that early spring access to spawning shoals was the mechanism by which this occurred.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2020

Investigating apparent misalignment of predator-prey dynamics: Great Lakes lake trout and sea lampreys

Interpreting ecological dynamics is challenging when observed patterns are not aligned with presumed models. Investigating possible sources of uncertainty is critical to understand the underlying system and ultimately inform management decisions. In this study, we used simulation to investigate the hypothesis that observed inconsistencies in Great Lakes lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) and sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) predator-prey dynamics were caused by measurement error in the abundance and predation metrics. When lake trout abundances increase and sea lamprey abundances decrease, predation rates are expected to decline (and vice versa). Occasionally predation rates do not change as expected, leading to an inconsistency in expected predator-prey dynamics. We used a Type II functional response model to align lake trout relative abundance, adult sea lamprey abundance, and sea lamprey marking rates of lake trout in each Great Lake. Then we added measurement error to each of the simulated metrics to see how it contributed to observed inconsistencies in the marking rates. The simulated inconsistency rate was far less than the observed inconsistency rate in Lakes Superior and Erie, indicating that measurement error was not primarily responsible for the misalignment of metrics, contrary to our hypothesis. Rather than ignoring these inconsistencies as unfortunate consequences of imperfect assessments, we recommend that future inconsistencies be scrutinized for possible mechanistic explanations. We suspect that predator-prey dynamics are being influenced by spatially structured within-lake components and the presence of alternative hosts, neither of which were accounted for in the functional response model we used.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2020

Use of underwater videography to quantify conditions utilized by endangered Moapa Dace While spawning

Advances in underwater camera technology provide an affordable means to quantify the environmental conditions under which fish spawn. This information is important for investigating spawning ecology, managing habitat, or providing information for captive breeding programs. We deployed 12 modified security cameras underwater to identify environmental conditions related to the spawning behavior of the critically endangered Moapa Dace Moapa coriacea , a Mojave Desert stream-dwelling cyprinid that had never been observed spawning and that had fallen to a low of 459 individual fish 4 years prior to this study. Camera sites were selected systematically along the stream to represent the variety of conditions available. We divided the field of view in front of each camera into a grid, and we estimated both the available environment and the habitat over which Moapa Dace showed spawning behavior. From over 4,000 10-min video clips that were randomly selected for analysis, 13 spawning events were identified. Using nonparametric contingency table analyses, we found that Moapa Dace selected depths between 30 and 34 cm, water velocities between 0.11 and 0.17 m/s, cobble substrate, and overhead instream cover. Although the recorded sample size of spawning events was small (13), our sample represents a large proportion of events given that the world's entire population of Moapa Dace at the time was approximately 650 fish distributed over multiple kilometers of stream length. Environmental conditions identified by this study were replicated in laboratory facilities to successfully propagate Moapa Dace for the first time in captivity. These propagation methods are now used in a management setting by the Nevada Department of Wildlife to maintain a captive population of this rare fish. Camera methods can be effective in helping to identify spawning conditions where water clarity is sufficient.

Nevada↗
USGS2008

Length variation in age-0 westslope cutthroat trout at multiple spatial scales

Phenotypic diversity provides ecological and evolutionary functions, stabilizing populations in variable environments. Although benefits of larger body size in juvenile fishes are well documented, size variation may have value as well. We explored the distribution of length and length variation in age-0 westslope cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi at three spatial scales: area (102 km2), stream (101 km2), and site (100 km2). In addition, we examined relationships between length variables (mean length and interquartile range of length) and instream (temperature and conductivity) and landscape (aspect, elevation, headwater distance, and valley width) variables that were expected to be associated with fish size. Conductivity was included as a surrogate for productivity. Most variation in mean length and interquartile range of fish length was found among areas (62.2% and 62.6%, respectively). Mean length also varied among streams and sites (21.9% and 15.8%, respectively). Similarly, interquartile range of fish length varied among streams and sites (19.1% and 18.3%, respectively). Both length variables were associated with temperature and elevation. Mean fish length was also associated with conductivity, but the association between interquartile length range and conductivity was weak. We conclude that the conservation of variation in phenotypic attributes, such as length, in westslope cutthroat trout may require conservation of viable populations across broad areas and across environmental gradients that are associated with growth. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗