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At least 451 records · Page 25Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Improved fish counting method accurately quantifies high‐density fish movement in dual‐frequency identification sonar data files from a coastal wetland environment

There are many ways to quantify fish movement through shallow‐water habitats, but most noninvasive methods (e.g., visual counts) are not effective in turbid coastal wetland waters of the Great Lakes. Dual‐frequency identification sonar (DIDSON) technology (Sound Metrics) offers a noninvasive, hydroacoustic‐based approach to characterize fish movement in wetlands and other habitats by collecting highly detailed fish movement data regardless of light and water quality conditions. High‐resolution data can be analyzed to estimate fish movement in areas where visual observations are difficult. However, enumerating a complex mix of fish sizes by manually counting fish visible in echogram files requires training and is very time consuming. Therefore, four counting techniques were tested to estimate fish abundance from DIDSON echograms that were collected at a hydrologically reconnected coastal wetland in the Great Lakes. Briefly, the four counting methods were (1) manually viewing the entire length of the echogram (full‐hour manual count), (2) manually viewing subsections of the echogram before generating fish estimates by per‐minute average (subsample manual count), (3) using Echoview automated software to generate automated estimates, and (4) using DIDSON viewer software to generate automated estimates. Over 800 echogram‐hours were recorded over a 9‐month period at an open‐flow water control structure connecting a coastal wetland to a tributary to Lake Erie. Commercial fish tracking software (Echoview) and custom software scripts from Milne Technologies were used to semi‐automate fish count estimates for a small subset of data. Semi‐automated software counts were compared to manual counts of identical data files to assess differences in accuracy, cost, processing time, and counter effort. Semi‐automated fish count estimates using Echoview and custom pre‐ and postprocessing software scripts did not differ from baseline manual counts, suggesting that the semi‐automated count process could be a reliable tool to increase efficiency when processing large DIDSON data sets.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2011

Effects of grade control structures on fish passage, biological assemblages, and hydraulic environments in western Iowa streams: a multidisciplinary review

Land use changes and channelization of streams in the deep loess region of western Iowa have led to stream channel incision, altered flow regimes, increased sediment inputs, decreased habitat diversity and reduced lateral connectivity of streams and floodplains. Grade control structures (GCSs) are built in streams to prevent further erosion, protect infrastructure and reduce sediment loads. However, GCS can have a detrimental impact on fisheries and biological communities. We review three complementary biological and hydraulic studies on the effects of GCS in these streams. GCS with steep (≥1:4 rise : run) downstream slopes severely limited fish passage, but GCS with gentle slopes (≤1:15) allowed greater passage. Fish assemblages were dominated by species tolerant of degradation, and Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI) scores were indicative of fair or poor biotic integrity. More than 50% of fish species had truncated distributions. After modification of GCS to reduce slopes and permit increased passage, IBI scores increased and several species were detected further upstream than before modification. Total macroinvertebrate density, biomass and taxonomic diversity and abundance of ecologically sensitive taxa were greater at GCS than in reaches immediately upstream, downstream or ≥1 km from GCS. A hydraulic study confirmed results from fish passage studies; minimum depths and maximum current velocities at GCS with gentle slopes (≤1:15) were more likely to meet minimum criteria for catfish passage than GCS with steeper slopes. Multidisciplinary approaches such as ours will increase understanding of GCS-associated factors influencing fish passage, biological assemblage structure and other ecological relationships in streams.

Iowa↗
USGS2013

Geospace environment modeling 2008--2009 challenge: D st index

This paper reports the metrics-based results of the D st index part of the 2008–2009 GEM Metrics Challenge. The 2008–2009 GEM Metrics Challenge asked modelers to submit results for four geomagnetic storm events and five different types of observations that can be modeled by statistical, climatological or physics-based models of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. We present the results of 30 model settings that were run at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center and at the institutions of various modelers for these events. To measure the performance of each of the models against the observations, we use comparisons of 1 hour averaged model data with the D st index issued by the World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto, Japan, and direct comparison of 1 minute model data with the 1 minute D st index calculated by the United States Geological Survey. The latter index can be used to calculate spectral variability of model outputs in comparison to the index. We find that model rankings vary widely by skill score used. None of the models consistently perform best for all events. We find that empirical models perform well in general. Magnetohydrodynamics-based models of the global magnetosphere with inner magnetosphere physics (ring current model) included and stand-alone ring current models with properly defined boundary conditions perform well and are able to match or surpass results from empirical models. Unlike in similar studies, the statistical models used in this study found their challenge in the weakest events rather than the strongest events.

Space Weather↗
USGS2002

Forensic applications of nitrogen and oxygen isotopes in tracing nitrate sources in urban environments

Ground and surface waters in urban areas are susceptible to nitrate contamination from septic systems, leaking sewer lines, and fertilizer applications. Source identification is a primary step toward a successful remediation plan in affected areas. In this respect, nitrogen and oxygen isotope ratios of nitrate, in conjunction with hydrologic data and water chemistry, have proven valuable in urban studies from Austin, Texas, and Tacoma, Washington. In Austin, stream water was sampled during stremflow and baseflow conditions to assess surface and subsurface sources of nitrate, respectively. In Tacoma, well waters were sampled in adjacent sewered and un-sewered areas to determine if locally high nitrate concentrations were caused by septic systems in the un-sewered areas. In both studies, sewage was identified as a nitrate source and mixing between sewage and other sources of nitrate was apparent. In addition to source identification, combined nitrogen and oxygen isotopes were important in determining the significance of denitrification, which can complicate source assessment by reducing nitrate concentrations and increasing ??15N values. The two studies illustrate the value of nitrogen and oxygen isotopes of nitrate for forensic applications in urban areas. ?? Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. on behalf of AEHS.

Environmental Forensics↗
USGS2017

Radiocarbon Ages and Environments of Deposition of the Wono and Trego Hot Springs Tephra Layers in the Pyramid Lake Subbasin, Nevada

Uncalibrated radiocarbon data from core PLC92B taken from Wizards Cove in the Pyramid Lake subbasin indicate that the Trego Hot Springs and Wono tephra layers were deposited 23,200 ?? 300 and 27,300 ??300 14C yr B.P. (uncorrected for reservoir effect). Sedimentological data from sites in the Pyramid Lake and Smoke Creek-Black Rock Desert subbasins indicate that the Trego Hot Springs tephra layer was deposited during a relatively dry period when Pyramid Lake was at or below its spill point (1177 m) to the Winnemucca Lake subbasin. The Wono tephra layer was deposited when lake depth was controlled by spill across Emerson Pass sill (1207 m) to the Smoke Creek-Black Rock Desert subbasin. 18O data from core PLC92B also support the concept that the Trego Hot Springs tephra fell into a relatively shallow Pyramid Lake and that the Wono tephra fell into a deeper spilling lake. ?? 1997 University of Washington.

Quaternary Research↗
USGS2005

Physical events, environments, and geological—Ecological interactions at Mount St. Helens: March 1980–2004

The diversity and intensity of volcanic processes during the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens affected a variety of ecosystems over a broad area and created an exceptional opportunity to study interactions of geophysical and ecological processes in dynamic landscapes. Within a few hours on the morning of May 18, 1980, a major explosive eruption of Mount St. Helens affected thousands of square kilometers by releasing a massive debris avalanche, a laterally directed volcanic blast, mudflows, pyroclastic flows, and widespread tephra fall (see Figure 1.1; Figures 3.1, 3.2; Table 3.1). These primary physical events killed organisms, removed or buried organic material and soil, and created new terrestrial and aquatic habitats. Despite these profound environmental changes, important legacies of predisturbance ecosystems, including live organisms, propagules, and organic and physical structures, persisted across much of the affected landscape. The physical characteristics of the volcanic processes (elevated temperature, impact force, abrasion, and depth of erosion and burial) in part determined the extent of mortality and the types and significance of biotic legacies in the posteruption landscape.

Washington↗
USGS2008

Occurrence of transformation products in the environment

Historically, most environmental occurrence research has focused on the parent compounds of organic contaminants. Research, however, has documented that the environmental transport of chemicals, such as pesticides and emerging contaminants, are substantially underestimated if transformation products are not considered. Although most examples described herein were drawn from research conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, such results are generally reflective of those found in other parts of the world. Results from a study of 51 streams in the Midwestern United States found that transformation products were seven of the ten most frequently detected pesticide compounds in late spring runoff (after application of pre-emergent herbicides), and nine of the ten most frequently detected compounds in fall season runoff (during and after harvest). In fact, 70% of the total herbicide concentration in water from the Mississippi River Basin was from transformation products. Results from a study of 86 municipal wells in Iowa found the frequency of detection increased from 17%, when pesticide parent compounds were considered, to 53%, when both parents and transformation products were considered. Transformation products were 12 of the 15 most frequently detected compounds for this groundwater study. Although studies on transformation products of synthetic organic compounds other than pesticides are not as common, wastewater treatment plant discharges have repeatedly been shown to contribute such transformation products to streams. In addition, select detergent transformation products have been commonly found in solid waste in the 1000's mg/kg. These findings and many others document that transformation products must be considered to fully assess the potential environmental occurrence of chemical contaminants and their transport and fate in various compartments of the hydrologic system. ?? 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry series↗
USGS2026

Beach nourishment morphodynamics in a high-energy U.S. West Coast environment

Dredged sediment from engineered inlets can be used to nourish coastlines adjacent to these inlets, serving as a beneficial alternative to offshore disposal. Effective strategies for beneficial use of dredged sediment, however, rely on understanding of local sediment transport. A beach nourishment project utilizing dredged sand was carried out at a highly energetic beach north of the Columbia River mouth (Washington, USA). Within two weeks of placement, during a moderately energetic period, a large part of the beach nourishment had eroded. To predict local hydro- and morphodynamics there, a XBeach model was used, validated with field observations of nearshore hydrodynamics and morphology. It showed that while the subaerial nourishment eroded rapidly, it is likely that the sediment is deposited around the inner bar and is still available to the morphological system of Benson Beach. Additionally, model simulations suggest the nourishment provided a buffer against erosion of the local dune system during its presence.

Washington↗
USGS1986

Seed germination patterns of Salvia mellifera in fire-prone environments

Salvia mellifera seeds from coastal sage, chaparral and desert scrub in southern California failed to germinate in the dark unless exposed to powdered charred wood. This pattern was observed for seeds given a one month stratification at 5 C and for ones not stratified and also for seeds incubated under continuous 23 C or a diurnal alternation of 13 C/23 C. Dark inhibition of germination was also overcome, but only in seeds from chaparral populations, if seeds were incubated on commercial potting soil under alternating 13 C/23 C. Seeds in the light germinated readily in all but one population from desert scrub vegetation. Germination of seeds from this population was markedly stimulated by dry heating of the seeds at either 70 C for 5 h or 115 C for 5 min. For all populations there were numerous significant interactions between incubation temperature, pre-chilling stratification, light, and heating/charred wood treatments. Timing of germination was remarkably consistent between populations; the vast majority of seeds germinated within the first week at 23 C (or 13 C/23 C) regardless of whether or not they had received a pre-chilling treatment.

Oecologia↗
USGS2016

Geochemistry of host rocks in the Howards Pass district, Yukon-Northwest Territories, Canada: implications for sedimentary environments of Zn-Pb and phosphate mineralization

Detailed lithogeochemical data are reported here on early Paleozoic sedimentary rocks that host the large Howards Pass stratiform Zn-Pb deposits in Yukon-Northwest Territories. Redox-sensitive trace elements (Mo, Re, V, U) and Ce anomalies in members of the Duo Lake Formation record significant environmental changes. During the deposition of lower footwall units (Pyritic siliceous and Calcareous mudstone members), bottom waters were anoxic and sulphidic, respectively; these members formed in a marginal basin that may have become increasingly restricted with time. Relative to lower members, a major environmental change is proposed for deposition of the overlying Lower cherty mudstone member, which contains phosphorite beds up to ∼0.8 m thick in the upper part, near the base of the Zn-Pb deposits. The presence of these beds, together with models for modern phosphorite formation, suggests P input from an upwelling system and phosphorite deposition in an upper slope or outer shelf setting. The overlying Active mudstone member contains stratabound to stratiform Zn-Pb deposits within black mudstone and gray calcareous mudstone. Data for unmineralized black mudstone in this member indicate deposition under diverse redox conditions from suboxic to sulphidic. Especially distinctive in this member are uniformly low ratios of light to heavy rare earth elements that are unique within the Duo Lake Formation, attributed here to the dissolution of sedimentary apatite by downward-percolating acidic metalliferous brines. Strata that overlie the Active member (Upper siliceous mudstone member) consist mainly of black mudstone with thin (0.5–1.5 cm) laminae of fine-grained apatite, recording continued deposition on an upper slope or outer shelf under predominantly suboxic bottom waters. Results of this study suggest that exploration for similar stratiform sediment-hosted Zn-Pb deposits should include the outer parts of ancient continental margins, especially at and near stratigraphic transitions from marginal basin facies to overlying slope or shelf facies.

Mineralium Deposita↗
USGS2025

Evaluation of polymer-based dust palliatives in soil and stormwater runoff in an arid environment

Dust palliatives are used to reduce fugitive dust in areas susceptible to erosion by wind and rain. In 2015, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) temporarily approved the use of polymer-based dust palliatives during the construction and operation of a solar energy facility and, in 2019, on a mining access road in Clark County, Nevada. The areas treated with palliative are habitat to the desert tortoise. The desert tortoise consumes water opportunistically from puddles, saturated soils, or by the collection of precipitation on their carapaces. Since little is known about the toxicity of polymeric substances to the desert tortoise, the BLM is concerned with the exposure of the desert tortoise to palliative in stormwater runoff. The BLM collaborated with the US Geological Survey (USGS) to evaluate the transport of butyl acrylate vinyl acetate (BA-VA), the copolymer ingredient in the dust palliatives applied in the study, away from areas of application. BA-VA concentrations were measured in soils treated with palliative up to 90 days post-treatment, after which the copolymer became undetectable (< 0.55 mg/g). BA-VA concentrations in all stormwater samples within and outside treated areas were consistently below detection (< 0.20 mg/mL). Although stormwater and treated soils eroded from the solar facility application area were found to have BA-VA concentrations below detection (< 0.55 mg/g), it is likely that some BA-VA (parent or degradation product) was transported with suspended material. It is also likely that the amount of BA-VA transported away from areas of application was a small fraction of that applied.

Nevada↗
USGS2002

The National Vegetation Classification Standard applied to the remote sensing classification of two semiarid environments

The National Vegetation Classification Standard (NVCS) was implemented at two US National Park Service (NPS) sites in Texas, the Padre Island National Seashore (PINS) and the Lake Meredith National Recreation Area (LM-NRA), to provide information for NPS oil and gas management plans. Because NVCS landcover classifications did not exist for these two areas prior to this study, we created landcover classes, through intensive ground and aerial reconnaissance, that characterized the general landscape features and at the same time complied with NVCS guidelines. The created landcover classes were useful for the resource management and were conducive to classification with optical remote sensing systems, such as the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM). In the LMNRA, topographic elevation data were added to the TM data to reduce confusion between cliff, high plains, and forest classes. Classification accuracies (kappa statistics) of 89.9% (0.89) and 88.2% (0.87) in PINS and LMNRA, respectively, verified that the two NPS landholdings were adequately mapped with TM data. Improved sensor systems with higher spectral and spatial resolutions will ultimately refine the broad classes defined in this classification; however, the landcover classifications created in this study have already provided valuable information for the management of both NPS lands. Habitat information provided by the classifications has aided in the placement of inventory and monitoring plots, has assisted oil and gas operators by providing information on sensitive habitats, and has allowed park managers to better use resources when fighting wildland fires and in protecting visitors and the infrastructure of NPS lands.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2024

Reducing uncertainty with iterative model updating parses effects of competition and environment on salamander occupancy

Making timely management decisions is often hindered by uncertainty. Monitoring reduces two key types of uncertainty. First, it serves to reduce structural uncertainty of how the system works and provides support for expectations of how a system works. Second, it serves to reduce parametric uncertainty of the drivers of system dynamics. By combining monitoring data and quantitative models, we can reduce structural and parametric uncertainty. To demonstrate this, we focus on the Shenandoah salamander ( Plethodon shenandoah ), a United States Federally Endangered Species. Early work suggested that P. shenandoah extinction risk results from competition with a conspecific ( Plethodon cinereus ). However, more recent work has found equivocal support for this claim, instead suggesting that abiotic factors, such as moisture and temperature, drive P. shenandoah persistence. Using long-term monitoring data, we find that while competition may play a part in P. shenandoah extinction risk, measures of surface moisture are better predictors of occupancy dynamics. Further, we find decreased detection rates of P. shenandoah when P. cinereus is present, suggesting a conflation of detection probability with actual competition, which cautions against making inference from unadjusted observations of occurrence. Using multiple lines of inquiry allows for more robust understanding of system drivers in the face of high uncertainty, increasing opportunities to manage extinction risk.

Virginia↗
USGS2002

A Geochemical Trophic Cascade in Yellowstone's Geothermal Environments

We contrast the geochemistry of the Madison drainage, which has high concentrations of geothermal features, with the Lamar drainage of Yellowstone National Park, USA, and trace the consequences of geochemical differences through abiotic and biotic linkages in the ecosystem. Waters in the geothermal-dominated drainage contained anomalously high levels of fluoride (F) and silica (SiO 2 ). Soils, stream sediments, and surface waters that interact or mix with geothermal waters, in turn, had elevated F and SiO 2 concentrations compared to similar samples from the Lamar drainage. The geochemical differences were reflected in the chemistry of forage plants, with some plants from geothermally influenced areas containing four- to eightfold higher concentrations of F and SiO 2 than similar plants in the Lamar drainage. Geothermal heat reduced snowpack, and we found that elk (Cervus elaphus) concentrated in these refugia as snowpack increased each winter. The consequent high dietary intake of F in animals associated with the geothermal areas was confirmed by the finding that bone samples from elk living in the Madison drainage contained sixfold higher concentrations of F than samples collected from animals wintering in the Lamar drainage. High F exposure resulted in compromised dentition due to fluoride toxicosis, which was undoubtedly exacerbated by the abrasive action of silica. The consequent accelerated and aberrant tooth wear resulted in early onset of senescence, reduced life span, and an abbreviated age structure. We speculate that these altered demographics, combined with spatial heterogeneity of snowpack, will result in increased vulnerability of this large herbivore population to wolf predation and less resiliency to compensate demographically for predation.

Wyoming↗
USGS2025

Soil moisture partitioning between under canopy and interspace environments in shrublands of the northern Chihuahuan Desert

Soil moisture is a key link between hydrologic and ecologic processes in desert shrublands. Understanding how soil moisture is spatially distributed in desert shrublands provides valuable insights into how shrubs use and impact limiting water resources, and how shrublands may respond to future meteorological and climate change. Our goals were to determine how soil moisture is partitioned between soil volumes under canopies and in the bare soil interspaces across multiple desert shrublands, and to evaluate the roles of physical soil properties, shrub-type characteristics, meteorology, and measurement resolution in influencing and observing variation in soil moisture partitioning. Utilizing two long-term soil moisture datasets (monthly resolution, 30 years, whole soil profile measurements; and 30 min resolution, 10 years, 10–30 cm measurements), we compared soil moisture partitioning across nine northern Chihuahuan Desert shrubland sites (three sites dominated by creosotebush [ Larrea tridentata ], three by honey mesquite [ Prosopis glandulosa ], and three by tarbush [ Flourensia cernua ]) in the Jornada Basin, southern New Mexico, USA. Over 30 years, monthly, whole profile data showed that soil moisture in mesquite shrublands was consistently higher in bare soil interspaces compared to under canopies, whereas soil moisture under and between shrubs was more similar in creosotebush and tarbush shrublands. Physical soil properties were linked as explanatory variables of long-term soil moisture partitioning (monthly whole profile dataset), whereas 30-minute data showed that shorter-term periods of higher precipitation promoted greater near surface soil moisture (10–30 cm) in bare soil interspaces that was not captured at monthly time steps. Thus, although the long-term average partitioning of soil moisture in these shrublands is strongly controlled by soil physical properties, soil moisture partitioning varies at shorter timescales (daily to weekly) in response to precipitation events. Moreover, shrub-type characteristics influenced soil moisture partitioning, with dense and tall mesquite shrubs having lower under canopy soil moisture than tarbush, and root architecture potentially influencing partitioning across creosotebush sites. These results illustrate diversity in soil moisture partitioning both between and within shrublands of the northern Chihuahuan Desert, and elucidate how physical soil properties, shrub-type characteristics, and meteorological variation interact to shape their soil moisture dynamics.

New Mexico↗
USGS2004

Analysis of coral mucus as an improved medium for detection of enteric microbes and for determining patterns of sewage contamination in reef environments

Traditional fecal indicator bacteria are often subject to a high degree of die-off and dilution in tropical marine waters, particularly in offshore areas such as coral reefs. Furthermore, these microbes are often not associated with human waste, and their presence may not be indicative of health risk. To address the offshore extent of wastewater contamination in the Florida Keys reef tract, we assayed coral surfaces for the presence of human-specific enteric viruses. The overlying water column and surface mucopolysaccharide (mucus) layers from scleractinian corals were sampled from three stations along a nearshore-to-offshore transect beginning at Long Key in the middle Florida Keys, USA. Samples were assayed for standard bacterial water quality indicators (fecal coliform bacteria and enterococci) and for human enteroviruses by direct reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The concentration of the bacterial indicators was greatest at the nearshore station in both the water column and corals, and decreased with distance from shore; no indicator bacteria were detected at the offshore station. Whereas human enteroviruses were not detected in any of the water column samples, they were detected in 50–80% of coral mucus samples at each station. These data provide evidence that human sewage is impacting the reef tract up to ~6.5 km from shore in the middle Florida Keys and that coral mucus is an efficient trap for viral markers associated with anthropogenic pollution.

Florida↗
USGS2014

Tidal and seasonal effects on survival rates of the endangered California clapper rail: Does invasive Spartina facilitate greater survival in a dynamic environment?

Invasive species frequently degrade habitats, disturb ecosystem processes, and can increase the likelihood of extinction of imperiled populations. However, novel or enhanced functions provided by invading species may reduce the impact of processes that limit populations. It is important to recognize how invasive species benefit endangered species to determine overall effects on sensitive ecosystems. For example, since the 1990s, hybrid Spartina ( Spartina foliosa × alterniflora ) has expanded throughout South San Francisco Bay, USA, supplanting native vegetation and invading mudflats. The endangered California clapper rail ( Rallus longirostris obsoletus ) uses the tall, dense hybrid Spartina for cover and nesting, but the effects of hybrid Spartina on clapper rail survival was unknown. We estimated survival rates of 108 radio-marked California clapper rails in South San Francisco Bay from January 2007 to March 2010, a period of extensive hybrid Spartina eradication, with Kaplan–Meier product limit estimators. Clapper rail survival patterns were consistent with hybrid Spartina providing increased refuge cover from predators during tidal extremes which flood native vegetation, particularly during the winter when the vegetation senesces. Model averaged annual survival rates within hybrid Spartina dominated marshes before eradication (Ŝ = 0.466) were greater than the same marshes posttreatment (Ŝ = 0.275) and a marsh dominated by native vegetation (Ŝ = 0.272). However, models with and without marsh treatment as explanatory factor for survival rates had nearly equivalent support in the observed data, lending ambiguity as to whether hybrid Spartina facilitated greater survival rates than native marshland. Conservation actions to aid in recovery of this endangered species should recognize the importance of available of high tide refugia, particularly in light of invasive species eradication programs and projections of future sea-level rise.

California↗
USGS2016

Sensitivity of the projected hydroclimatic environment of the Delaware River basin to formulation of potential evapotranspiration

The Delaware River Basin (DRB) encompasses approximately 0.4 % of the area of the United States (U.S.), but supplies water to 5 % of the population. We studied three forested tributaries to quantify the potential climate-driven change in hydrologic budget for two 25-year time periods centered on 2030 and 2060, focusing on sensitivity to the method of estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET) change. Hydrology was simulated using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (Williamson et al. 2015 ). Climate-change scenarios for four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used to derive monthly change factors for temperature (T), precipitation (PPT), and PET according to the energy-based method of Priestley and Taylor ( 1972 ). Hydrologic simulations indicate a general increase in annual (especially winter) streamflow (Q) as early as 2030 across the DRB, with a larger increase by 2060. This increase in Q is the result of (1) higher winter PPT, which outweighs an annual actual evapotranspiration (AET) increase and (2) (for winter) a major shift away from storage of PPT as snow pack. However, when PET change is evaluated instead using the simpler T-based method of Hamon ( 1963 ), the increases in Q are small or even negative. In fact, the change of Q depends as much on PET method as on time period or RCP. This large sensitivity and associated uncertainty underscore the importance of exercising caution in the selection of a PET method for use in climate-change analyses.

Climatic Change↗