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At least 451 records · Page 25Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Wildlife associates of nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus) burrows in Arkansas

The Nine-banded Armadillo ( Dasypus novemcinctus ) is a widespread burrowing species with an expanding geographic range across the southeastern and midwestern United States. Armadillos dig numerous, large burrows within their home ranges and these burrows are likely used by a diverse suite of wildlife species as has been reported for other burrowing ecosystem engineers such as Gopher Tortoises ( Gopherus polyphemus ), Desert Tortoises ( Gopherus agassizi ), and Black-tailed Prairie Dogs ( Cynomys ludovicianus ). We used motion-triggered game cameras at 35 armadillo burrows in 4 ecoregions of Arkansas and documented 19 species of mammals, 4 species of reptile, 1 species of amphibian, and 40 species of bird interacting with burrows. Bobcat ( Lynx rufus ), Coyote ( Canis latrans ), Eastern Cottontail ( Sylvilagus floridanus ), Gray Fox ( Urocyon cinereoargenteus ), Gray Squirrel ( Sciurus carolinensis ), Northern Raccoon ( Procyon lotor ), Virginia Opossum ( Didelphis virginiana ), and unidentified rodents (mice and rats) were documented using burrows in all four ecoregions. We documented wildlife hunting, seeking shelter, rearing young in, and taking over and modifying armadillo burrows. The rate of use was highest in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley, a landscape dominated by agriculture, where natural refugia may be limited and rodents are abundant. Armadillo burrows are clearly visited and used by numerous wildlife species to fulfill various life stage requirements, and this list will likely expand if more attention is devoted to understanding the role of armadillos burrows. Armadillos are important ecosystem engineers, and their ecological role warrants more investigation and attention as opposed to only being viewed and managed as agricultural and garden pests.

Arkansas↗
USGS2022

Life history strategies of stream fishes linked to predictors of hydrologic stability

Life history theory provides a framework to understand environmental change based on species strategies for survival and reproduction under stable, cyclical, or stochastic environmental conditions. We evaluated environmental predictors of fish life history strategies in 20 streams intersecting a national park within the Potomac River basin in eastern North America. We sampled stream sites during 2018–2019 and collected 3801 individuals representing 51 species within 10 taxonomic families. We quantified life history strategies for species from their coordinates in an ordination space defined by trade-offs in spawning season duration, fecundity, and parental care characteristic of opportunistic, periodic, and equilibrium strategies. Our analysis revealed important environmental predictors: Abundance of opportunistic strategists increased with low-permeability soils that produce flashy runoff dynamics and decreased with karst terrain (carbonate bedrock) where groundwater inputs stabilize stream flow and temperature. Conversely, abundance of equilibrium strategists increased in karst terrain indicating a response to more stable environmental conditions. Our study indicated that fish community responses to groundwater and runoff processes may be explained by species traits for survival and reproduction. Our findings also suggest the utility of life history theory for understanding ecological responses to destabilized environmental conditions under global climate change.

Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia↗
USGS2022

Using a multi-model ensemble approach to determine biodiversity hotspots with limited occurrence data in understudied areas: An example using freshwater mussels in México

Species distribution models (SDMs) are an increasingly important tool for conservation particularly for difficult-to-study locations and with understudied fauna. Our aims were to (1) use SDMs and ensemble SDMs to predict the distribution of freshwater mussels in the Pánuco River Basin in Central México; (2) determine habitat factors shaping freshwater mussel occurrence; and (3) use predicted occupancy across a range of taxa to identify freshwater mussel biodiversity hotspots to guide conservation and management. In the Pánuco River Basin, we modeled the distributions of 11 freshwater mussel species using an ensemble approach, wherein multiple SDM methodologies were combined to create a single ensemble map of predicted occupancy. A total of 621 species-specific observations at 87 sites were used to create species-specific ensembles. These predictive species ensembles were then combined to create local diversity hotspot maps. Precipitation during the warmest quarter, elevation, and mean temperature were consistently the most important discriminatory environmental variables among species, whereas land use had limited influence across all taxa. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first freshwater mussel-focused research to use an ensemble approach to determine species distribution and predict biodiversity hotspots. Our study can be used to guide not only current conservation efforts but also prioritize areas for future conservation and study.

Pánuco↗
USGS2022

Co-occurrence models fail to infer underlying patterns of avoidance and aggregation when closure is violated

Advances in multi-species monitoring have prompted an increase in the use of multi-species occupancy analyses to assess patterns of co-occurrence among species, even when data were collected at scales likely violating the assumption that sites were closed to changes in the occupancy state for the target species. Violating the closure assumption may lead to erroneous conclusions related to patterns of co-occurrence among species. Occurrence for two hypothetical species was simulated under patterns of avoidance, aggregation, or independence, when the closure assumption was either met or not. Simulated populations were sampled at two levels ( N = 250 or 100 sites) and two scales of temporal resolution for surveys. Sample data were analyzed with conditional two-species occupancy models, and performance was assessed based on the proportion of simulations recovering the true pattern of co-occurrence. Estimates of occupancy were unbiased when closure was met, but biased when closure violations occurred; bias increased when sample size was small and encounter histories were collapsed to a large-scale temporal resolution. When closure was met and patterns of avoidance and aggregation were simulated, conditional two-species models tended to correctly find support for non-independence, and estimated species interaction factors (SIF) aligned with predicted values. By contrast, when closure was violated, models tended to incorrectly infer a pattern of independence and power to detect simulated patterns of avoidance or aggregation that decreased with smaller sample size. Results suggest that when the closure assumption is violated, co-occurrence models often fail to detect underlying patterns of avoidance or aggregation, and incorrectly identify a pattern of independence among species, which could have negative consequences for our understanding of species interactions and conservation efforts. Thus, when closure is violated, inferred patterns of independence from multi-species occupancy should be interpreted cautiously, and evidence of avoidance or aggregation is likely a conservative estimate of true pattern or interaction.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2022

Open removal models with temporary emigration and population dynamics to inform invasive animal management

Removal sampling data are the primary source of monitoring information for many populations (e.g., invasive species, fisheries). Population dynamics, temporary emigration, and imperfect detection are common sources of variation in monitoring data and are key parameters for informing management. We developed two open robust-design removal models for simultaneously modeling population dynamics, temporary emigration, and imperfect detection: a random walk linear trend model (estimable without ancillary information), and a 2-age class informed population model (InfoPM, closely related to integrated population models) that incorporated prior information for age-structured vital rates and relative juvenile availability. We applied both models to multiyear, removal trapping time-series of a large invasive lizard (Argentine black and white tegu, Salvator merianae ) in three management areas of South Florida to evaluate the effectiveness of management programs. Although estimates of the two models were similar, the InfoPMs generally returned more precise estimates, partitioned dynamics into births, deaths, net migration, and provided a decision support tool to predict population dynamics under different effort scenarios while accounting for uncertainty. Trends in tegu superpopulation abundance estimates were increasing in two management areas despite generally high removal rates. However, tegu abundance appeared to decline in the Core management area, where trapping density was the highest and immigration the lowest. Finally, comparing abundance predictions of no-removal scenarios to those estimated in each management area suggested significant population reductions due to management. These results suggest that local tegu population control via systematic trapping may be feasible with high enough trap density and limited immigration; and highlights the value of these trapping programs. We provided the first estimates of tegu abundance, capture probabilities, and population dynamics, which is critical for effective management. Furthermore, our models are applicable to a wide range of monitoring programs (e.g., carcass recovery or removal point-counts).

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2022

Foraging habitat selection of shrubland bird community in tropical dry forest

Habitat loss due to increasing anthropogenic disturbance is the major driver for bird population declines across the globe. Within the Eastern Ghats of India, shrubland bird communities are threatened by shrinking of suitable habitats due to increased anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. The development of an effective habitat management strategy is hampered by the absence of data for this bird community. To address this knowledge gap, we examined foraging sites for 14 shrubland bird species, including three declining species, in three study areas representing the shrubland type of forest community in the Eastern Ghats. We recorded microhabitat features within an 11 m radius of observed foraging points and compared these data with similar data from random plots. We used chi-square to test the association between plant species and bird species for sites where they were observed foraging. We observed significant differences between foraging sites of all the study species and random plots, thus indicating selection for foraging habitat. Using linear discriminant analysis, we found that the microhabitat features important for the bird species were shrub density, vegetational height, vertical foliage stratification, grass height, and percent rock cover. Our results show that diet guild and foraging strata influence the foraging microhabitat selection of a species (e.g., ground-foraging species differed significantly from other species). Except for two species, all focal birds were associated with at least one plant species. The plant-bird association was based on foraging, structural, or behavioral preferences. Several key factors affecting foraging habitat such as shrub density can be actively managed at the local scale. Strategic and selective harvesting of forest products and a spatially and temporally controlled livestock grazing regime may allow regeneration of scrubland and create conditions favorable to birds.

Andhra Pradesh↗
USGS2022

Partial observability and management of ecological systems

The actual state of ecological systems is rarely known with certainty, but management actions must often be taken regardless of imperfect measurement (partial observability). Because of the difficulties in accounting for partial observability, it is usually treated in an ad hoc fashion, or simply ignored altogether. Yet incorporating partial observability into decision processes lends a realism that has the potential to improve ecological outcomes significantly. We review frameworks for dealing with partial observability, focusing specifically on dynamic ecological systems with Markovian transitions, i.e., transitions among system states that are influenced by the current system state and management action over time. Fully observable states are represented in an observable Markov decision process (MDP), whereas obscure or hidden states are represented in a partially observable process (POMDP). POMDPs can be seen as a natural extension of observable MDPs. Management under partial observability generalizes the situation for complete observability, by recognizing uncertainty about the system's state and incorporating sequential observations associated with, but not the same as, the states themselves. Decisions that otherwise would depend on the actual state must be based instead on state probability distributions (“belief states”). Partial observability requires adaptation of the entire decision process, including the use of belief states and Bayesian updates, valuation that includes expectations over observations, and optimal strategy that identifies actions for belief states over a continuous belief space. We compare MDPs and POMDPs and highlight POMDP applications to some common ecological problems. We clarify the structure and operations, approaches for finding solutions, and analytic challenges of POMDPs for practicing ecologists. Both observable and partially observable MDPs can use an inductive approach to identify optimal strategies and values, with a considerable increase in mathematical complexity with POMDPs. Better understanding of POMDPs can help decision makers manage imperfectly measured ecological systems more effectively.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2022

Decision support for aquatic restoration based on species-specific responses to disturbance

Disturbances to aquatic habitats are not uniformly distributed within the Great Lakes and acute effects can be strongest in nearshore areas where both landscape and within lake effects can have strong influence. Furthermore, different fish species respond to disturbances in different ways. A means to identify and evaluate locations and extent of disturbances that affect fish is needed throughout the Great Lakes. We used partial Canonical Correspondence Analysis to separate “natural” effects on nearshore assemblages from disturbance effects. Species-specific quadratic models of fish abundance as functions of in-lake disturbance or watershed-derived disturbance were developed separately for each of 35 species and lakewide predictions mapped for Lake Erie. Most responses were unimodal and more species decreased in abundance with increasing watershed disturbance than increased. However, eight species increased in abundance with current in-lake disturbance conditions. Optimum Yellow Perch ( Perca flavescens ) abundance occurred at in-lake disturbance values less than the gradient mean, but decreased continuously from minimum watershed disturbance to higher values. Bands of optimum in-lake conditions occurred throughout the eastern and western portions of the Lake Erie nearshore zone; some areas were less disturbed than desirable. However, watershed-derived disturbance conditions were generally poor for Yellow Perch throughout the lake. In contrast, optimum Smallmouth Bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) abundance occurred at in-lake disturbance values greater than the gradient mean and continuously increased with increasing watershed disturbance. Smallmouth Bass responses to disturbance indicated that most of the nearshore zone was less disturbed than is desirable and were most abundant in areas that the Yellow Perch response indicated were highly disturbed. Mapping counts of species response models that agreed on the disturbance level in each spatial unit of the nearshore zone showed a fine-scale mosaic of areas in which habitat restoration may benefit many or few species. This tool may assist managers in prioritizing conservation and restoration efforts and evaluating environmental conditions that may be improved.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2022

Predator movements in relation to habitat features reveal vulnerability of duck nests to predation

Nest predation is the main cause of nest failure for ducks. Understanding how habitat features influence predator movements may facilitate management of upland and wetland breeding habitats that reduces predator encounter rates with duck nests and increases nest survival rates. For 1618 duck nests, nest survival increased with distance to phragmites ( Phragmites australis ), shrubs, telephone poles, human structures, and canals, but not for four other habitat features. Using GPS collars, we tracked 25 raccoons ( Procyon lotor ) and 16 striped skunks ( Mephitis mephitis ) over 4 years during waterfowl breeding and found marked differences in how these predators were located relative to specific habitat features; moreover, the probability of duck nests being encountered by predators differed by species. Specifically, proximity to canals, wetlands, trees, levees/roads, human structures, shrubs, and telephone poles increased the likelihood of a nest being encountered by collared raccoons. For collared skunks, nests were more likely to be encountered if they were closer to canals, trees, and shrubs, and farther from wetlands and human structures. Most predator encounters with duck nests were attributable to a few individuals; 29.2% of raccoons and 38.5% of skunks were responsible for 95.6% of total nest encounters. During the central span of duck nesting (April 17–June 14: 58 nights), these seven raccoons and five skunks encountered >1 nest on 50.8 ± 29.2% (mean ± SD) and 41.5 ± 28.3% of nights, respectively, and of those nights individual raccoons and skunks averaged 2.60 ± 1.28 and 2.50 ± 1.09 nest encounters/night, respectively. For collared predators that encountered >1 nest, a higher proportion of nests encountered by skunks had evidence of predation (51.9 ± 26.6%) compared to nests encountered by raccoons (22.3 ± 17.1%). Because duck eggs were most likely consumed as raccoons and skunks opportunistically discovered nests, managing the habitat features those predators most strongly associated with could potentially reduce rates of egg predation.

California↗
USGS2022

Simple statistical models can be sufficient for testing hypotheses with population time series data

Time-series data offer wide-ranging opportunities to test hypotheses about the physical and biological factors that influence species abundances. Although sophisticated models have been developed and applied to analyze abundance time series, they require information about species detectability that is often unavailable. We propose that in many cases, simpler models are adequate for testing hypotheses. We consider three relatively simple regression models for time series, using simulated and empirical (fish and mammal) datasets. Model A is a conventional generalized linear model of abundance, model B adds a temporal autoregressive term, and model C uses an estimate of population growth rate as a response variable, with the option of including a term for density dependence. All models can be fit using Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods. Simulation results demonstrated that model C tended to have greater support for long-lived, lower-fecundity organisms (K life-history strategists), while model A, the simplest, tended to be supported for shorter-lived, high-fecundity organisms (r life-history strategists). Analysis of real-world fish and mammal datasets found that models A, B, and C each enjoyed support for at least some species, but sometimes yielded different insights. In particular, model C indicated effects of predictor variables that were not evident in analyses with models A and B. Bayesian and frequentist models yielded similar parameter estimates and performance. We conclude that relatively simple models are useful for testing hypotheses about the factors that influence abundance in time-series data, and can be appropriate choices for datasets that lack the information needed to fit more complicated models. When feasible, we advise fitting datasets with multiple models because they can provide complementary information.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2022

Genomic divergence, local adaptation, and complex demographic history may inform management of a popular sportfish species complex

The Neosho Bass ( Micropterus velox ), a former subspecies of the keystone top-predator and globally popular Smallmouth Bass ( M. dolomieu ), is endemic and narrowly restricted to small, clear streams of the Arkansas River Basin in the Central Interior Highlands (CIH) ecoregion, USA. Previous studies have detected some morphological, genetic, and genomic differentiation between the Neosho and Smallmouth Basses; however, the extent of neutral and adaptive divergence and patterns of intraspecific diversity are poorly understood. Furthermore, lineage diversification has likely been impacted by gene flow in some Neosho populations, which may be due to a combination of natural biogeographic processes and anthropogenic introductions. We assessed: (1) lineage divergence, (2) local directional selection (adaptive divergence), and (3) demographic history among Smallmouth Bass populations in the CIH using population genomic analyses of 50,828 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) obtained through ddRAD-seq. Neosho and Smallmouth Bass formed monophyletic clades with 100% bootstrap support. We identified two major lineages within each species. We discovered six Neosho Bass populations (two nonadmixed and four admixed) and three nonadmixed Smallmouth Bass populations. We detected 29 SNPs putatively under directional selection in the Neosho range, suggesting populations may be locally adapted. Two populations were admixed via recent asymmetric secondary contact, perhaps after anthropogenic introduction. Two other populations were likely admixed via combinations of ancient and recent processes. These species comprise independently evolving lineages, some having experienced historical and natural admixture. These results may be critical for management of Neosho Bass as a distinct species and may aid in the conservation of other species with complex biogeographic histories.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2022

Pleistocene–Holocene vicariance, not Anthropocene landscape change, explains the genetic structure of American black bear (Ursus americanus) populations in the American Southwest and northern Mexico

The phylogeography of the American black bear ( Ursus americanus ) is characterized by isolation into glacial refugia, followed by population expansion and genetic admixture. Anthropogenic activities, including overharvest, habitat loss, and transportation infrastructure, have also influenced their landscape genetic structure. We describe the genetic structure of the American black bear in the American Southwest and northern Mexico and investigate how prehistoric and contemporary forces shaped genetic structure and influenced gene flow. Using a suite of microsatellites and a sample of 550 bears, we identified 14 subpopulations organized hierarchically following the distribution of ecoregions and mountain ranges containing black bear habitat. The pattern of subdivision we observed is more likely a product of postglacial habitat fragmentation during the Pleistocene and Holocene, rather than a consequence of contemporary anthropogenic barriers to movement during the Anthropocene. We used linear mixed-effects models to quantify the relationship between landscape resistance and genetic distance among individuals, which indicated that both isolation by resistance and geographic distance govern gene flow. Gene flow was highest among subpopulations occupying large tracts of contiguous habitat, was reduced among subpopulations in the Madrean Sky Island Archipelago, where montane habitat exists within a lowland matrix of arid lands, and was essentially nonexistent between two isolated subpopulations. We found significant asymmetric gene flow supporting the hypothesis that bears expanded northward from a Pleistocene refugium located in the American Southwest and northern Mexico and that major highways were not yet affecting gene flow. The potential vulnerability of the species to climate change, transportation infrastructure, and the US–Mexico border wall highlights conservation challenges and opportunities for binational collaboration.

Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2022

Scat as a source of DNA for population monitoring

Sampling fecal droppings (scat) to genetically identify individual animals is an established method for monitoring mammal populations and could be highly useful for monitoring reptile populations. Whereas existing protocols for obtaining DNA from reptile scat focus on analyses of whole, fresh scat deposited during animal handling, the collection of scat naturally deposited by reptiles in situ, as required for non-invasive population monitoring, requires protocols to extract highly degraded DNA. Using surface swabs from such scats can reduce PCR inhibition, ecological impacts of removing scat, and zoonotic risks. We report on three related but independently designed studies of DNA analyses from scat swabs of herbivorous reptiles under natural desert conditions: two free-ranging desert tortoise species (Agassiz's desert tortoise, Gopherus agassizii , California, US, and Morafka's desert tortoise, G. morafkai , Arizona, US) and the common chuckwalla (Sauromalus atar ) (Arizona, US, and Sonora, MX). We analyzed samples from both tortoise species with the same set of 16 microsatellites and chuckwalla samples with four mtDNA markers; studies also varied in swab preservation medium and DNA extraction method. Microsatellite amplification success per sample, defined as ≥9 loci with amplification, varied between studies, with 15% for Agassiz's desert tortoise and 42% Morafka's desert tortoise. For chuckwallas, we successfully amplified and sequenced 50% of samples. We recovered fragments up to 400 bp for tortoises and 980 bp for chuckwallas from scat swab samples. This study demonstrates that genotypes can successfully be obtained from swabs of herbivorous reptile scat collected in the field under natural environmental conditions and emphasizes that repeat amplifications are necessary for genetic identification of individuals from non-invasive samples.

Arizona, California↗
USGS2014

Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multi-state models: A comparison to capture-recapture approaches

Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers ( Setophaga caerulescens ) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive data collection efforts (such as capture–recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales.

New Hampshire↗
USGS2022

Flyway-scale GPS tracking reveals migratory routes and key stopover and non-breeding locations of lesser yellowlegs

Many populations of long-distance migrant shorebirds are declining rapidly. Since the 1970s, the lesser yellowlegs ( Tringa flavipes ) has experienced a pronounced reduction in abundance of ~63%. The potential causes of the species' decline are complex and interrelated. Understanding the timing of migration, seasonal routes, and important stopover and non-breeding locations used by this species will aid in directing conservation planning to address potential threats. During 2018–2022, we tracked 118 adult lesser yellowlegs using GPS satellite tags deployed on birds from five breeding and two migratory stopover locations spanning the boreal forest of North America from Alaska to Eastern Canada. Our objectives were to identify migratory routes, quantify migratory connectivity, and describe key stopover and non-breeding locations. We also evaluated predictors of southbound migratory departure date and migration distance. Individuals tagged in Alaska and Central Canada followed similar southbound migratory routes, stopping to refuel in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America, whereas birds tagged in Eastern Canada completed multi-day transoceanic flights covering distances of >4000 km across the Atlantic between North and South America. Upon reaching their non-breeding locations, lesser yellowlegs populations overlapped, resulting in weak migratory connectivity. Sex and population origin were significantly associated with the timing of migratory departure from breeding locations, and body mass at the time of GPS-tag deployment was the best predictor of southbound migratory distance. Our findings suggest that lesser yellowlegs travel long distances and traverse numerous political boundaries each year, and breeding location likely has the greatest influence on migratory routes and therefore the threats birds experience during migration. Further, the species' dependence on wetlands in agricultural landscapes during migration and the non-breeding period may make them vulnerable to threats related to agricultural practices, such as pesticide exposure.

Ecology and Evolution: Nature Notes↗
USGS2022

Divergent responses of butterflies and bees to burning and grazing management in tallgrass prairies

Butterflies and bees contribute significantly to grassland biodiversity and play important roles as pollinators and herbivores. Grassland conservation and management must be seen through the lens of insect conservation and management if these species are to thrive. In North America, grasslands are a product of climate and natural disturbances such as fire and grazing. These natural disturbances have changed considerably since European colonization and subsequent landscape fragmentation. The aim of this study was to better understand the impacts of fire and grazing management on butterfly and bee communities in tallgrass prairie, enabling land managers and conservationists to better protect and manage remnant prairie. We examined butterfly and bee abundance, species richness, and diversity in Minnesota tallgrass prairies managed by grazing or fire. In 2016 and 2017, we surveyed butterflies, bees, vegetation, and surrounding land use at 20 remnant prairies (10 burned and 10 grazed) with known management histories. Butterfly and bee abundance at our study sites were significantly negatively correlated. Butterfly abundance, but not species richness, was higher in burned than grazed prairies, and prairie-associated grass-feeding butterflies were more abundant at sites with higher plant species richness. Bee abundance was unrelated to management type but was higher at sites with sandier soils; bee species richness was positively associated with forb frequency. These findings highlight the challenges of designing management plans tailored to wide groups of pollinators and the potential pitfalls of using one group of pollinators as indicators for another. They also point to the importance of a mosaic of management practices across the prairie landscape.

Minnesota↗
USGS2022

Demographic effects of a megafire on a declining prairie grouse in the mixed-grass prairie

Recent studies have documented benefits of small, prescribed fire and wildfire for grassland-dependent wildlife, such as lesser prairie-chickens ( Tympanuchus pallidicintus ), but wildlife demographic response to the scale and intensity of megafire (wildfire >40,000 ha) in modern, fragmented grasslands remains unknown. Limited available grassland habitat makes it imperative to understand if increasing frequency of megafires could further reduce already declining lesser prairie-chicken populations, or if historical evolutionary interactions with fire make lesser prairie-chickens resilient. To evaluate lesser prairie-chicken demographic response to megafires, we compared lek counts, nest density, and survival rates of adults, nests, and chicks before (2014–2016) and after (2018–2020) a 2017 megafire in the mixed-grass prairie of Kansas, USA (Starbuck fire ~254,000 ha). There was a 67% decline in attending males on leks post-fire and a 57% decline in occupied leks post-fire. Despite population declines as indicated by lek counts, adult female breeding season survival ( Ŝ ) was similar pre- ( Ŝ = 0.65 ± 0.08 [SE]) and post-fire (0.61 ± 0.08), as was chick survival (pre-fire: 0.23 ± 0.07; post-fire: 0.27 ± 0.11). Nest survival appeared lower post-fire (pre-fire: 0.38 ± 0.06; post-fire: 0.20 ± 0.06), but did not differ at the 95% confidence interval. Nest density of marked females declined 73% in areas burned by megafire. Although lesser prairie-chickens persisted in the study area and we documented minimal effects on most demographic rates, reduced lesser prairie-chicken abundance and reproductive output suggests full recovery may take >3 years. Increased propensity for megafire resulting from suppression of smaller fires, compounded by climate change and woody encroachment, may impose a short-term (3–5 year) threat to already declining lesser prairie-chicken populations.

Kansas, Oklahoma↗
USGS2022

Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030

White-nose syndrome has been decimating populations of several bat species since its first occurrence in the Northeastern United States in the winter 2006–2007. The spread of the disease has been monitored across the continent through the collaboration of many organizations. Inferring the rate of spread of the disease and predicting its arrival at new locations is critical when assessing the current and predicting the future status and trends of bat species. We developed a model of disease spread that simultaneously achieves high-predictive performance, computational efficiency, and interpretability. We modeled white-nose syndrome spread using Gaussian process variations to infer the spread rate of the disease front, identify areas of anomalous time of arrival, and provide future forecasts of the expected time of arrival throughout North America. Cross-validation of model predictive performance identified a stationary Gaussian process without an additional residual error process as the best-supported model. Results indicated that white-nose syndrome is likely to spread throughout the entire continental United States by 2030. These annually updatable model predictions will be useful in determining the horizon over which disease management actions must take place as well as in status and trend assessments of disease-affected bats.

Ecology and Evolution↗