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Results for “Ecological Modelling”

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At least 451 records · Page 25Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Biomonitoring using invasive species in a large Lake: Dreissena distribution maps hypoxic zones

Due to cultural eutrophication and global climate change, an exponential increase in the number and extent of hypoxic zones in marine and freshwater ecosystems has been observed in the last few decades. Hypoxia, or low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations, can produce strong negative ecological impacts and, therefore, is a management concern. We measured biomass and densities of Dreissena in Lake Erie, as well as bottom DO in 2014 using 19 high frequency data loggers distributed throughout the central basin to validate a three-dimensional hydrodynamic-ecological lake model. We found that a deep, offshore hypoxic zone was formed by early August, restricting the Dreissena population to shallow areas of the central basin. Deeper than 20 m, where bottom hypoxia routinely develops, only young of the year mussels were found in small numbers, indicating restricted recruitment and survival of young Dreissena . We suggest that monitoring Dreissena distribution can be an effective tool for mapping the extent and frequency of hypoxia in freshwater. In addition, our results suggest that an anticipated decrease in the spatial extent of hypoxia resulting from nutrient management has the potential to increase the spatial extent of profundal habitat in the central basin available for Dreissena expansion.

Lake Erie↗
USGS2003

Quantitative characterization of the regressive ecological succession by fractal analysis of plant spatial patterns

We studied the effect of grazing on the degree of regression of successional vegetation dynamic in a semi-arid Mediterranean matorral. We quantified the spatial distribution patterns of the vegetation by fractal analyses, using the fractal information dimension and spatial autocorrelation measured by detrended fluctuation analyses (DFA). It is the first time that fractal analysis of plant spatial patterns has been used to characterize the regressive ecological succession. Plant spatial patterns were compared over a long-term grazing gradient (low, medium and heavy grazing pressure) and on ungrazed sites for two different plant communities: A middle dense matorral of Chamaerops and Periploca at Sabinar-Romeral and a middle dense matorral of Chamaerops, Rhamnus and Ulex at Requena-Montano. The two communities differed also in the microclimatic characteristics (sea oriented at the Sabinar-Romeral site and inland oriented at the Requena-Montano site). The information fractal dimension increased as we moved from a middle dense matorral to discontinuous and scattered matorral and, finally to the late regressive succession, at Stipa steppe stage. At this stage a drastic change in the fractal dimension revealed a change in the vegetation structure, accurately indicating end successional vegetation stages. Long-term correlation analysis (DFA) revealed that an increase in grazing pressure leads to unpredictability (randomness) in species distributions, a reduction in diversity, and an increase in cover of the regressive successional species, e.g. Stipa tenacissima L. These comparisons provide a quantitative characterization of the successional dynamic of plant spatial patterns in response to grazing perturbation gradient. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Cabo de Gata Natural Park↗
USGS2011

Interagency partnering for weed prevention-- Progress on development of a National Early Detection and Rapid Response System for Invasive Plants in the United States

Over the past 50 years, experience has shown that interagency groups provide an effective forum for addressing various invasive species issues and challenges on multiple land units. However, more importantly, they can also provide a coordinated framework for early detection, reporting, identification and vouchering, rapid assessment, and rapid response to new and emerging invasive plants in the United States. Interagency collaboration maximizes the use of available expertise, resources, and authority for promoting early detection and rapid response (EDRR) as the preferred management option for addressing new and emerging invasive plants. Currently, an interagency effort is underway to develop a National EDRR System for Invasive Plants in the United States. The proposed system will include structural and informational elements. Structural elements of the system include a network of interagency partner groups to facilitate early detection and rapid response to new invasive plants, including the Federal Interagency Committee for the Management of Noxious and Exotic Weeds (FICMNEW), State Invasive Species Councils, State Early Detection and Rapid Response Coordinating Committees, State Volunteer Detection and Reporting Networks, Invasive Plant Task Forces, and Cooperative Weed Management Areas. Informational elements and products being developed include Regional Invasive Plant Atlases, and EDRR Guidelines for EDRR Volunteer Network Training, Rapid Assessment and Rapid Response, and Criteria for Selection of EDRR Species. System science and technical support elements which are provided by cooperating state and federal scientists, include EDRR guidelines, training curriculum for EDRR volunteers and agency field personnel, plant identification and vouchering, rapid assessments, as well as predictive modeling and ecological range studies for invasive plant species.

Book chapter↗
USGS2024

Potential for spatial coexistence of a transboundary migratory species and wind energy development

Global expansion in wind energy development is a notable achievement of the international community’s effort to reduce carbon emissions during energy production. However, the increasing number of wind turbines have unintended consequences for migratory birds and bats. Wind turbine curtailment and other mitigation strategies can reduce fatalities, but improved spatial and temporal data are needed to identify the most effective way for wind energy development and volant migratory species to coexist. Mexican free-tailed bats ( Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana ) account for a large proportion of known bat fatalities at wind facilities in the southwestern US. We examined the geographic concordance between existing wind energy generation facilities, areas of high wind potential amenable for future deployment of wind facilities, and seasonally suitable habitat for these bats. We used ecological niche modeling to determine species distribution during each of 4 seasons. We used a multi-criteria GIS-based approach to produce a wind turbine siting suitability map. We identified seasonal locations with highest and lowest potential for the species’ probability of occurrence, providing a potential explanation for the higher observed fatalities during fall migration. Thirty percent of 33,606 wind turbines within the southwestern US occurred in highly suitable areas for Mexican free-tailed bats, primarily in west Texas. There is also broad spatial overlap between areas of high wind potential and areas of suitable habitat for Mexican free-tailed bats. Because of this high degree of overlap, our results indicate that post-construction strategies, such as curtailing the timing of operations and deterrents, would be more effective for bat conservation than strategic siting of new wind energy installations.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2014

Temperature drives global patterns in forest biomass distribution in leaves, stems, and roots

Whether the fraction of total forest biomass distributed in roots, stems, or leaves varies systematically across geographic gradients remains unknown despite its importance for understanding forest ecology and modeling global carbon cycles. It has been hypothesized that plants should maintain proportionally more biomass in the organ that acquires the most limiting resource. Accordingly, we hypothesize greater biomass distribution in roots and less in stems and foliage in increasingly arid climates and in colder environments at high latitudes. Such a strategy would increase uptake of soil water in dry conditions and of soil nutrients in cold soils, where they are at low supply and are less mobile. We use a large global biomass dataset (>6,200 forests from 61 countries, across a 40 °C gradient in mean annual temperature) to address these questions. Climate metrics involving temperature were better predictors of biomass partitioning than those involving moisture availability, because, surprisingly, fractional distribution of biomass to roots or foliage was unrelated to aridity. In contrast, in increasingly cold climates, the proportion of total forest biomass in roots was greater and in foliage was smaller for both angiosperm and gymnosperm forests. These findings support hypotheses about adaptive strategies of forest trees to temperature and provide biogeographically explicit relationships to improve ecosystem and earth system models. They also will allow, for the first time to our knowledge, representations of root carbon pools that consider biogeographic differences, which are useful for quantifying whole-ecosystem carbon stocks and cycles and for assessing the impact of climate change on forest carbon dynamics.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2018

Hydrological regime and climate interactively shape riparian vegetation composition along the Colorado River, Grand Canyon

Question How closely do riparian plant communities track hydrological and climatic variation in space, and how do interactions among hydrological and climatic filters influence success of flow management strategies? Location Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA. Methods Multi‐year vegetation surveys were conducted across three hydrological zones – active channel, active floodplain and inactive floodplain – within each of 42 sandbars that vary geographically in temperature and precipitation along a 400‐km river segment. Ecological niche models were used to estimate locally optimal conditions of maximum inundation duration, elevation above daily peak flow, mean annual precipitation, and mean maximum and minimum temperature for 16 of the most abundant woody and 58 most abundant herbaceous plant species. These estimates were used to calculate community‐weighted mean (CWM) environmental preferences, which were used to determine how closely vegetation preferences tracked local variation in environmental factors, and to assess interactive responses of species and communities to variation in hydrology and climate. Results Communities closely tracked hydrological variation across zones, but less so within zones. Communities tracked variation in minimum temperature more closely than maximum temperature or precipitation. At the species level, woody plants that were more abundant in wetter hydrological conditions were also more abundant in wetter climatic conditions, and vice versa. This relationship was even stronger at the community level, where there were significant negative relationships between CWM preferences of inundation duration and temperature for both woody and herbaceous vegetation. Conclusions The climate‐hydrology linkages found in this system suggest that increasing temperatures and drought are likely to reduce the inundation tolerance of riparian vegetation within the Grand Canyon. Increasing the duration of high flow events would likely reduce the abundance of encroaching woody vegetation, but could also reduce the resilience of remaining vegetation to heat waves and drought. The reinforcing effects of climatic and hydrological filters are likely to generally result in greater sensitivity of species composition to environmental change than if those environmental filters acted independently. These results have implications for predicting resource responses to environmental change, as well as prescriptions for direct vegetation management to enhance resilience.

Colorado River, Grand Canyon↗
USGS2022

Resist, accept, and direct responses to biological invasions: A social–ecological perspective

Biological invasions represent an important and unique case of ecological transformation that can strongly influence species and entire ecosystems. Challenges in managing invasions arise on multiple fronts, ranging from diverse and often divergent values associated with native and introduced species, logistical constraints, and transformation via other change agents (e.g., climate and land-use change). We address biological invasions considering the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework for addressing ecological transformation. Because RAD is focused on decisions, we address both social and ecological factors that influence preferences for decision alternatives. We address social factors first as these can constrain the range of alternatives considered in an ecological context. Next, we address ecological dynamics by modeling trajectories from RAD alternatives in a two-species scenario involving impacts of introduced brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) on native bull trout ( S. confluentus ). Results reveal that decision alternatives aligned with each of the major components of RAD can produce positive outcomes. In a management context, these findings highlight the value of investing in early engagement to fully identify decision alternatives, formalizing models of system dynamics to understand ecological trajectories, and applying this knowledge to set the stage for longer term efforts to address biological invasions.

Fisheries Management and Ecology↗
USGS2009

Variable growth and longevity of yellow bullhead (Ameiurus natalis) in the Everglades of south Florida, USA

Yellow bullhead (Ictaluridae: Ameiurus natalis) is the most abundant ictalurid catfish in the Everglades of southern Florida, USA, and, as both prey and predator, is one of many essential components in the ecological-simulation models used in assessing restoration success in the Everglades. Little is known of its biology and life history in this southernmost portion of its native range; the present study provides the first estimates of age and growth from the Everglades. In total, 144 yellow bullheads of 97-312 mm total length (TL) were collected from canals and marshes of the Everglades between April 2000 and January 2001, and from October 2003 to February 2005. Fish were aged using cross-sections of pectoral spines and ranged from 1-12 years, with the maximum age almost twice that of any yellow bullhead previously reported. Yellow bullheads from south Florida grew relatively rapidly during their first 3 years, but after age 5 growth slowed and fish approached an asymptote of ???214 mm TL. Compared to other populations in the United States, yellow bullhead in the Everglades grew relatively slowly, were smaller at age overall, but survived to older ages. ?? 2009 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Journal of Applied Ichthyology↗
USGS2009

Divergence in an obligate mutualism is not explained by divergent climatic factors

Adaptation to divergent environments creates and maintains biological diversity, but we know little about the importance of different agents of ecological divergence. Coevolution in obligate mutualisms has been hypothesized to drive divergence, but this contention has rarely been tested against alternative ecological explanations. Here, we use a well-established example of coevolution in an obligate pollination mutualism, Yucca brevifolia and its two pollinating yucca moths, to test the hypothesis that divergence in this system is the result of mutualists adapting to different abiotic environments as opposed to coevolution between mutualists. ??? We used a combination of principal component analyses and ecological niche modeling to determine whether varieties of Y. brevifolia associated with different pollinators specialize on different environments. ??? Yucca brevifolia occupies a diverse range of climates. When the two varieties can disperse to similar environments, they occupy similar habitats. ??? This suggests that the two varieties have not specialized on distinct habitats. In turn, this suggests that nonclimatic factors, such as the biotic interaction between Y. brevifolia and its pollinators, are responsible for evolutionary divergence in this system. ?? New Phytologist (2009).

New Phytologist↗
USGS2008

Integrated monitoring and information systems for managing aquatic invasive species in a changing climate

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2016

Estimated use of water in the Delaware River Basin in Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania, 2010

The Delaware River Basin (DRB) was selected as a Focus Area Study in 2011 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) as part of the USGS National Water Census. The National Water Census is a USGS research program that focuses on national water availability and use and then develops new water accounting tools and assesses water availability at both the regional and national scales. One of the water management needs that the DRB study addressed, and that was identified by stakeholder groups from the DRB, was to improve the integration of state water use and water-supply data and to provide the compiled water use information to basin users. This water use information was also used in the hydrologic modeling and ecological components of the study. Instream and offstream water use was calculated for 2010 for the DRB based on information received from Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania. Water withdrawal, interbasin transfers, return flow, and hydroelectric power generation release data were compiled for 11 categories by hydrologic subregion, basin, subbasin, and subwatershed. Data availability varied by state. Site-specific data were used whenever possible to calculate public supply, irrigation (golf courses, nurseries, sod farms, and crops), aquaculture, self-supplied industrial, commercial, mining, thermoelectric, and hydroelectric power withdrawals. Where site-specific data were not available, primarily for crop irrigation, livestock, and domestic use, various techniques were used to estimate water withdrawals. Total water withdrawals in the Delaware River Basin were calculated to be about 7,130 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in 2010. Calculations of withdrawals by source indicate that freshwater withdrawals were about 4,130 Mgal/d (58 percent of the total) and the remaining 3,000 Mgal/d (42 percent) were from saline water. Total surface-water withdrawals were calculated to be 6,590 Mgal/d, or 92 percent of the total; about 54 percent (3,590 Mgal/d) of surface water withdrawn was freshwater. Total groundwater withdrawals were calculated to be 545 Mgal/d (8 percent of the total), all of which was freshwater. During 2010, calculated withdrawals by category, in decreasing order, were: thermoelectric power, 4,910 Mgal/d; public supply, 1,490 Mgal/d; self-supplied industrial, 350 Mgal/d; irrigation, 175 Mgal/d; self-supplied domestic, 117 Mgal/d; mining, 41.3 Mgal/d; aquaculture, 19.3 Mgal/d; livestock, 6.72 Mgal/d, and commercial, 5.89 Mgal/d. The amount of instream use for hydroelectric power generation purposes in 2010 was reported to be 273 Mgal/d for the Wallenpaupack Plant and 127 Mgal/d for the Mongaup River system. Total return flows in the DRB were 2,960 Mgal/d in 2010. Although municipal wastewater-treatment plants accounted for 539 (97 percent) of the return-flow sites, they accounted for about 70 percent of the total return flows in the DRB. There was limited information on return flows from thermoelectric power.

Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania↗
USGS2019

Riverscape correlates for distribution of threatened spotfin chub Erimonax monachus in the Tennessee River Basin, USA

Globally, aquatic biodiversity is imperiled at an increasing rate, especially in diversity hotspots such as the southeastern USA. The spotfin chub Erimonax monachus is a federally threatened minnow with a disjunct distribution resulting from numerous impoundments on the Tennessee River and its tributaries in the heart of the southeastern USA. Recovery actions required to remove federal protection for E. monachus are dependent on the establishment of additional populations within the historical range of the species, but little is known regarding macroscale habitat requirements that could guide conservation planning. We analyzed local- and network-scale watershed attributes to develop an ecological niche model (ENM) for E. monachus useful for directing conservation actions at sampled and unsampled sites across the Tennessee River Basin. We found E. monachus occurred most often in larger streams with large upstream catchment areas and minimal alteration to forested uplands, but all of these sites were in close proximity to high densities of downstream dams due to populations being restricted to large-stream habitat upstream of reservoirs. The ENM showed the highest probability of E. monachus occurrence among catchment locations with known extant populations; however, additional historical and previously unoccupied catchments showed potential for successful (re)introductions, provided that fine-scale habitats are appropriate. Our framework can be used to identify potential survey and (re)introduction sites for E. monachus as well as other rare riverine fishes and represents a method for identifying areas of high priority for conserving aquatic biodiversity.

Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Car↗
USGS2023

Enhancing the predictability of ecology in a changing world: A call for an organism-based approach

Ecology is usually very good in making descriptive explanations of what is observed, but is often unable to make predictions of the response of ecosystems to change. This has implications in a human-dominated world where a suite of anthropogenic stresses are threatening the resilience and functioning of ecosystems that sustain mankind through a range of critical regulating and supporting services. In ecosystems, cause-and-effect relationships are difficult to elucidate because of complex networks of negative and positive feedbacks. Therefore, being able to effectively predict when and where ecosystems could pass into different (and potentially unstable) new states is vitally important under rapid global change. Here, we argue that such better predictions may be reached if we focus on organisms instead of species, because organisms are the principal biotic agents in ecosystems that react directly on changes in their environment. Several studies show that changes in ecosystems may be accurately described as the result of changes in organisms and their interactions. Organism-based theories are available that are simple and derived from first principles, but allow many predictions. Of these we discuss Trait-based Ecology, Agent Based Models, and Maximum Entropy Theory of Ecology and show that together they form a logical sequence of approaches that allow organism-based studies of ecological communities. Combining and extending them makes it possible to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of groups of organisms in terms of how metabolic energy is distributed over areas, time, and resources. We expect that this “Organism-based Ecology” (OE) ultimately will improve our ability to predict ecosystem dynamics.

Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics↗
USGS2019

LANDFIRE remap prototype mapping effort: Developing a new framework for mapping vegetation classification, change, and structure

LANDFIRE (LF) National (2001) was the original product suite of the LANDFIRE program, which included Existing Vegetation Cover (EVC), Height (EVH), and Type (EVT). Subsequent refinements after feedback from data users resulted in updated products, referred to as LF 2001, that now served as LANDFIRE’s baseline datasets and are the basis for all subsequent LANDFIRE updates. These updates account for disturbances and vegetation transitions changes that may not represent current vegetation conditions. Therefore, in 2016 LANDFIRE initiated the Remap prototype to determine how to undertake a national-scale remap of the LANDFIRE primary vegetation datasets. EVC, EVH, and EVT were produced (circa 2015) via modeling for ecologically variable prototyping areas in the Pacific Northwest (NW) and Grand Canyon (GC). An error analysis within the GC suggested an overall accuracy of 52% (N = 800) for EVT, and a goodness of fit of 51% (N = 38) for percent cover (continuous EVC) and 53% (N = 38) for height (continuous EVH). The prototyping effort included a new 81-class map using the National Vegetation Classification (NVC) within the NW. This paper presents a narrative of the innovative methodologies in image processing and mapping used to create the new LANDFIRE vegetation products.

Fire↗
USGS2024

Evaluating spatially explicit management alternatives for an invasive species in a riverine network

Invasive species have substantial ecological and economic costs and removing them can require large investments by management agencies. Optimal spatial allocation of removal effort is critical for efficient and effective management of invasive species. Using a series of ecologically informed model simulations, we evaluated and compared different spatially explicit removal strategies for invasive rusty crayfish ( Faxonius rusticus ) in the John Day River, USA. We assessed strategies in terms of their performance on three likely management objectives: suppression (minimise overall population abundance), containment (minimise the spatial extent of invasion) and prevention (minimise spread into a specific area). We developed five spatial removal strategies to achieve those objectives, denoted as: Target Abundance (removal at locations with the highest population abundance), Target Growth (removal at locations with the highest population growth), Target Edges (removal at the most distant locations in the river), Target Downstream (removal at the most downstream invaded segments on the Mainstem), and Target Random (removal at randomly selected locations). Each strategy was assessed at various effort levels, referring to the number of spatial segments in the river in which removals were conducted, after seven years of management. We identified the alternative that best achieved each objective, based on decision criteria for risk-neutral and risk-averse decision-makers and further evaluated strategies based on Pareto efficiency, which identifies the set of alternatives for which an improvement on one objective cannot be had without a decline in performance on another. We found that Target Abundance and Target Growth strategies best achieved the suppression objective, for risk neutral and risk averse decision-makers, respectively and Target Downstream was always best in achieving the prevention objective across both types of decision-makers. No single strategy consistently performed best in terms of the containment objective. In terms of all three objectives, Target Downstream was consistently Pareto efficient across all levels of management effort and both decision criteria. The modelling framework we provided is adaptable to a variety of riverine invasive species to help assess and compare spatial management strategies.

Oregon↗
USGS2005

Sexual differentiation in the distribution potential of northern jaguars ( Panthera onca )

We estimated the potential geographic distribution of jaguars in the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico by modeling the jaguar ecological niche from occurrence records. We modeled separately the distribution of males and females, assuming records of females probably represented established home ranges while male records likely included dispersal movements. The predicted distribution for males was larger than that for females. Eastern Sonora appeared capable for supporting male and female jaguars with potential range expansion into southeastern Arizona. New Mexico and Chihuahua contained environmental characteristics primarily limited to the male niche and thus may be areas into which males occasionally disperse.

Arizona;Chihuahua;New Mexico;Sonora;Texas↗
USGS2019

Implications of climate scenarios for Badlands National Park resource management

Badlands National Park (BADL) hosts a myriad of natural and cultural resources, including bison and black-footed ferrets, the mixed grass prairie they live in, 37-75 million-year-old fossils, and historic buildings, trails, and roads. All are sensitive to climate, but anticipating precisely how each will be affected by climate change is difficult. In the face of this challenge, park resource managers must nevertheless make forward-looking decisions and take action to meet resource management goals. Fortunately, tools exist to identify strategies and actions likely to succeed under a range of potential future climate conditions. Two such tools—qualitative scenario planning and quantitative ecological simulation modeling—were used to anticipate management challenges and identify solutions for BADL and adjacent federal and tribal lands in the coming decades (through 2050). This brief summarizes and synthesizes results of this work. Although the brief focuses on BADL, it also includes several key insights gained from examining management approaches on adjacent lands.

South Dakota↗