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At least 451 records · Page 25Linked to original sources

Application of science-based restoration planning to a desert river system

Persistence of many desert river species is threatened by a suite of impacts linked to water infrastructure projects that provide human water security where water is scarce. Many desert rivers have undergone regime shifts from spatially and temporally dynamic ecosystems to more stable systems dominated by homogenous physical habitat. Restoration of desert river systems could aid in biodiversity conservation, but poses formidable challenges due to multiple threats and the infeasibility of recovery to pre-development conditions. The challenges faced in restoring desert rivers can be addressed by incorporating scientific recommendations into restoration planning efforts at multiple stages, as demonstrated here through an example restoration project. In particular, use of a watershed-scale planning process can identify data gaps and irreversible constraints, which aid in developing achievable restoration goals and objectives. Site-prioritization focuses limited the resources for restoration on areas with the greatest potential to improve populations of target organisms. Investment in research to understand causes of degradation, coupled with adoption of a guiding vision is critical for identifying feasible restoration actions that can enhance river processes. Setting monitoring as a project goal, developing hypotheses for expected outcomes, and implementing restoration as an experimental design will facilitate adaptive management and learning from project implementation. Involvement of scientists and managers during all planning stages is critical for developing process-based restoration actions and an implementation plan to maximize learning. The planning process developed here provides a roadmap for use of scientific recommendations in future efforts to recover dynamic processes in imperiled riverine ecosystems.

San Rafael River watershed↗

Metals fate and transport modelling in streams and watersheds: state of the science and USEPA workshop review

Metals pollution in surface waters from point and non-point sources (NPS) is a widespread problem in the United States and worldwide (Lofts et al. , 2007; USEPA, 2007). In the western United States, metals associated with acid mine drainage (AMD) from hardrock mines in mountainous areas impact aquatic ecosystems and human health (USEPA, 1997a; Caruso and Ward, 1998; Church et al. , 2007). Metals fate and transport modelling in streams and watersheds is sometimes needed for assessment and restoration of surface waters, including mining-impacted streams (Runkel and Kimball, 2002; Caruso, 2003; Velleux et al. , 2006). The Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP; Wool et al. , 2001), developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), is an example of a model used for such analyses. Other approaches exist and appropriate model selection depends on site characteristics, data availability and modelling objectives. However, there are a wide range of assumptions, input parameters, data requirements and gaps, and calibration and validation issues that must be addressed by model developers, users and decision makers. Despite substantial work on model development, their successful application has been more limited because they are not often used by decision makers for stream and watershed assessment and restoration. Bringing together scientists, model developers, users and decision makers should stimulate the development of appropriate models and improve the applicability of their results. To address these issues, the USEPA Office of Research and Development and Region 8 (Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming) hosted a workshop in Denver, Colorado on February 13–14, 2007. The workshop brought together approximately 35 experts from government, academia and consulting to address the state of the art for modelling metals fate and transport, knowledge gaps and future directions in metals modelling. It focused on modelling metals in high-altitude streams, rivers and watersheds impacted by mine waste that are common in the western United States and require remediation. For example, there are over 100 000 abandoned or inactive mining sites across the United States, encompassing over 500 000 acres of land that may eventually require characterization and remediation, including the possible application of stream or watershed metals fate and transport modelling (USEPA, 1997a). This article provides a general overview of the state of the science on modelling metals fate and transport in streams and watersheds, including a review of presentations and discussions at the USEPA workshop. It builds on previous summaries of metals fate and transport models in aquatic systems, including USEPA (1997b, 2007), Allen (2002), Paquin et al. (2003), Nordstrom (2004) and Maest et al. (2005).

Colorado↗

Evaluating the spatial variation of total mercury in young-of-year yellow perch (Perca flavescens), surface water and upland soil for watershed-lake systems within the southern Boreal Shield

The primary objective of this research is to investigate relationships between mercury in upland soil, lake water and fish tissue and explore the cause for the observed spatial variation of THg in age one yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) for ten lakes within the Superior National Forest. Spatial relationships between yellow perch THg tissue concentration and a total of 45 watershed and water chemistry parameters were evaluated for two separate years: 2005 and 2006. Results show agreement with other studies where watershed area, lake water pH, nutrient levels (specifically dissolved NO 3 − -N) and dissolved iron are important factors controlling and/or predicting fish THg level. Exceeding all was the strong dependence of yellow perch THg level on soil A-horizon THg and, in particular, soil O-horizon THg concentrations (Spearman ρ = 0.81). Soil B-horizon THg concentration was significantly correlated (Pearson r = 0.75) with lake water THg concentration. Lakes surrounded by a greater percentage of shrub wetlands (peatlands) had higher fish tissue THg levels, thus it is highly possible that these wetlands are main locations for mercury methylation. Stepwise regression was used to develop empirical models for the purpose of predicting the spatial variation in yellow perch THg over the studied region. The 2005 regression model demonstrates it is possible to obtain good prediction (up to 60% variance description) of resident yellow perch THg level using upland soil O-horizon THg as the only independent variable. The 2006 model shows even greater prediction ( r 2 = 0.73, with an overall 10 ng/g [tissue, wet weight] margin of error), using lake water dissolved iron and watershed area as the only model independent variables. The developed regression models in this study can help with interpreting THg concentrations in low trophic level fish species for untested lakes of the greater Superior National Forest and surrounding Boreal ecosystem.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Escherichia coli sampling reliability at a frequently closed Chicago beach: monitoring and management implications

Monitoring beaches for recreational water quality is becoming more common, but few sampling designs or policy approaches have evaluated the efficacy of monitoring programs. The authors intensively sampled water for E. coli ( N =1770) at 63rd Street Beach, Chicago for 6 months in 2000 in order to (1) characterize spatial-temporal trends, (2) determine between and within transect variation, and (3) estimate sample size requirements and determine sampling reliability. E. coli counts were highly variable within and between sampling sites but spatially and diurnally autocorrelated. Variation in counts decreased with water depth and time of day. Required number of samples was high for 70% precision around the critical closure level (i.e., 6 within or 24 between transect replicates). Since spatial replication may be cost prohibitive, composite sampling is an alternative once sources of error have been well defined. The results suggest that beach monitoring programs may be requiring too few samples to fulfill management objectives desired. As the recreational water quality national database is developed, it is important that sampling strategies are empirically derived from a thorough understanding of the sources of variation and the reliability of collected data. Greater monitoring efficacy will yield better policy decisions, risk assessments, programmatic goals, and future usefulness of the information.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Measuring environmental change in forest ecosystems by repeated soil sampling: a North American perspective

Environmental change is monitored in North America through repeated measurements of weather, stream and river flow, air and water quality, and most recently, soil properties. Some skepticism remains, however, about whether repeated soil sampling can effectively distinguish between temporal and spatial variability, and efforts to document soil change in forest ecosystems through repeated measurements are largely nascent and uncoordinated. In eastern North America, repeated soil sampling has begun to provide valuable information on environmental problems such as air pollution. This review synthesizes the current state of the science to further the development and use of soil resampling as an integral method for recording and understanding environmental change in forested settings. The origins of soil resampling reach back to the 19th century in England and Russia. The concepts and methodologies involved in forest soil resampling are reviewed and evaluated through a discussion of how temporal and spatial variability can be addressed with a variety of sampling approaches. Key resampling studies demonstrate the type of results that can be obtained through differing approaches. Ongoing, large-scale issues such as recovery from acidification, long-term N deposition, C sequestration, effects of climate change, impacts from invasive species, and the increasing intensification of soil management all warrant the use of soil resampling as an essential tool for environmental monitoring and assessment. Furthermore, with better awareness of the value of soil resampling, studies can be designed with a long-term perspective so that information can be efficiently obtained well into the future to address problems that have not yet surfaced.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

Social values for ecosystem services (SolVES): A GIS application for assessing, mapping, and quantifying the social values of ecosystem services-Documentation and user manual, version 1.0

In response to the need for incorporating quantified and spatially explicit measures of social values into ecosystem services assessments, the Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center, in collaboration with Colorado State University, has developed a geographic information system application, Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES). SolVES can be used to assess, map, and quantify the perceived social values of ecosystem services. SolVES derives a quantitative social values metric, the Value Index, from a combination of spatial and nonspatial responses to public attitude and preference surveys. SolVES also generates landscape metrics, such as average elevation and distance to water, calculated from spatial data layers describing the underlying physical environment. Using kernel density calculations and zonal statistics, SolVES derives and maps the 10-point Value Index and reports landscape metrics associated with each index value for social value types such as aesthetics, biodiversity, and recreation. This can be repeated for various survey subgroups as distinguished by their attitudes and preferences regarding public uses of the forests such as motorized recreation and logging for fuels reduction. The Value Index provides a basis of comparison within and among survey subgroups to consider the effect of social contexts on the valuation of ecosystem services. SolVES includes regression coefficients linking the predicted value (the Value Index) to landscape metrics. These coefficients are used to generate predicted social value maps using value transfer techniques for areas where primary survey data are not available. SolVES was developed, and will continue to be enhanced through future versions, as a public domain tool to enable decision makers and researchers to map the social values of ecosystem services and to facilitate discussions among diverse stakeholders regarding tradeoffs between different ecosystem services in a variety of physical and social contexts.

Open-File Report↗

ARkStorm@Tahoe: Stakeholder perspectives on vulnerabilities and preparedness for an extreme storm event in the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno, and Carson City region

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are strongly linked to extreme winter precipitation events in the Western U.S., accounting for 80 percent of extreme floods in the Sierra Nevada and surrounding lowlands. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ARkStorm extreme storm scenario for California to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to allow stakeholders to better explore and mitigate potential impacts. To explore impacts on natural resources and communities in montane and adjacent environments, we downscaled the scenario to the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno and Carson City region of northern Nevada and California. This ArkStorm@Tahoe scenario was presented at six stakeholder meetings, each with a different geographic and subject matter focus. Discussions were facilitated by the ARkStorm@Tahoe team to identify social and ecological vulnerabilities to extreme winter storms, science and information needs, and proactive measures that might minimize impacts from this type of event. Information collected in these meetings was used to develop a tabletop emergency response exercise and set of recommendations for increasing resilience to extreme winter storm events in both Tahoe and the downstream communities of Northern Nevada. Over 300 individuals participated in ARkStorm@Tahoe stakeholder meetings and the emergency response exercise, including representatives from emergency response, natural resource and ecosystem management, health and human services, public utilities, and businesses. Interruption of transportation, communications, and lack of power and backup fuel supplies were identified as the most likely and primary points of failure across multiple sectors and geographies, as these interruptions have cascading effects on natural and human systems by impeding emergency response efforts. Other key issues that arose in discussions included contamination risks to water supplies and aquatic ecosystems, especially in the Tahoe Basin and Pyramid Lake, interagency coordination, credentialing, flood management, and coordination of health and human services during such an event. Mitigation options were identified for each of the key issues. Several science needs were identified, particularly the need for improved flood inundation maps. Finally, key lessons learned were identified and may help to increase preparedness, response and recovery from extreme storms in the future.

Report↗

Availability of Ground-Water Data for California, Water Year 2005

The U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources, in cooperation with Federal, State, and local agencies, obtains a large amount of data pertaining to the ground-water resources of California each water year (October 1-September 30). These data constitute a valuable database for developing an improved understanding of the water resources of the State. This Fact Sheet serves as an index to ground-water data for water year 2005. The 2-page report contains a map of California showing the number of wells (by county) with available water-level and water-quality data for water year 2005 (fig. 2) and instructions for obtaining this and other ground-water information contained in the databases of the U.S. Geological Survey, California Water Science Center. From 1985 to 1993, data were published in the annual report 'Water Resources Data for California, Volume 5. Ground-Water Data'; prior to 1985, the data were published in U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Papers.

Fact Sheet↗

Post-Wildfire Hydrologic Hazards in the Wildland Urban Interface of Colorado and the Western United States

Following a wildfire, such as the 2002 Missionary Ridge fire, a number of hydrologic hazards may develop that can have an important impact on water resources, businesses, homes, reservoirs, roads, and utilities in the wildland urban interface (areas where homes and commercial developments are interspersed with wildlands) in mountainous areas of the Western United States. This fact sheet describes these hazards and identifies approaches to quantify them, thus enabling land and resource managers to plan for and mitigate the effects of these hazards. The fact sheet has been produced in association with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Fire Science Thrust program and the Colorado Front Range Demonstration Project (CFRDP). The current (2007) focus of the CFRDP is on the Three Lakes watershed in Grand County, Colorado, which has applicability to many similar forested, mountain areas in the Western United States.

Fact Sheet↗

Availability of Ground-Water Data for California, Water Year 2006

Introduction The U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources, in cooperation with Federal, State, and local agencies, obtains a large amount of data pertaining to the ground-water resources of California each water year (October 1-September 30). These data constitute a valuable database for developing an improved understanding of the water resources of the State. This Fact Sheet serves as an index to ground-water data for water year 2006. The 2-page report contains a map of California showing the number of wells (by county) with available water-level and water-quality data for water year 2006 (fig. 2) and instructions for obtaining this and other ground-water information contained in the databases of the U.S. Geological Survey, California Water Science Center. From 1985 to 1993, data were published in the annual report 'Water Resources Data for California, Volume 5. Ground-Water Data'; prior to 1985, the data were published in U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Papers.

Fact Sheet↗

Availability of Ground-Water Data for California, Water Year 2007

The U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources, in cooperation with Federal, State, and local agencies, obtains a large amount of data pertaining to the ground-water resources of California each water year (October 1-September 30). These data constitute a valuable database for developing an improved understanding of the water resources of the State. This Fact Sheet serves as an index to ground-water data for water year 2007. The 2-page report contains a map of California showing the number of wells (by county) with available water-level and water-quality data for water year 2007 (fig. 2) and instructions for obtaining this and other ground-water information contained in the databases of the U.S. Geological Survey, California Water Science Center. From 1985 to 1993, data were published in the annual report 'Water Resources Data for California, Volume 5. Ground-Water Data'; prior to 1985, the data were published in U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Papers.

Fact Sheet↗

Challenge theme 3: Protecting the environment and safeguarding human health: Chapter 5 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

Many of the diverse, fragile ecosystems of the United States–Mexican border region are reaching unsustainable levels because of rapid population growth and changes in land use. Water shortages and pollution, poor air quality, increased soil salinities, and pesticides and heavy metal contaminants are some of the many stressors that are degrading the quality of life in the Borderlands. Lack of water treatment and wastewater infrastructure on both sides of the United States–Mexican border contributes to elevated rates of various communicable diseases most commonly found in developing countries: tuberculosis, intestinal infections, and hepatitis. Chronic diseases (diabetes, cancer, and heart disease) also prevail at high rates along the border, resembling trends observed in developed countries. In addition, the subtropical climate of the Borderlands is particularly suited for vectors of tropical diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever.

United States-Mexico Borderlands↗

Quantifying anthropogenic contributions to century-scale groundwater salinity changes, San Joaquin Valley, California, USA

Total dissolved solids (TDS) concentrations in groundwater tapped for beneficial uses (drinking water, irrigation, freshwater industrial) have increased on average by about 100 mg/L over the last 100 years in the San Joaquin Valley, California (SJV). During this period land use in the SJV changed from natural vegetation and dryland agriculture to dominantly irrigated agriculture with growing urban areas. Century-scale salinity trends were evaluated by comparing TDS concentrations and major ion compositions of groundwater from wells sampled in 1910 (Historic) to data from wells sampled in 1993-2015 (Modern). TDS concentrations in subregions of the SJV, the southern (SSJV), western (WSJV), northeastern (NESJV), and southeastern (SESJV) were calculated using a cell-declustering method. TDS concentrations increased in all regions, with the greatest increases found in the SSJV and SESJV. Evaluation of the Modern data from the NESJV and SESJV found higher TDS concentrations in recently recharged (post-1950) groundwater from shallow (< 50 m) wells surrounded predominantly by agricultural land uses, while premodern (pre-1950) groundwater from deeper wells, and recently recharged groundwater from wells surrounded by mainly urban, natural, and mixed land uses had lower TDS concentrations, approaching the TDS concentrations in the Historic groundwater. For the NESJV and SESJV, inverse geochemical modeling with PHREEQC indicated that weathering of primary silicate minerals accounted for the majority of the increase in TDS concentrations, contributing more than nitrate from fertilizers and sulfate from soil amendments combined. Bicarbonate showed the greatest increase among major ions, resulting from enhanced silicate weathering due to recharge of irrigation water enriched in CO2 during the growing season. The results of this study demonstrate that large anthropogenic changes to the hydrologic regime, like massive development of irrigated agriculture in semi-arid areas like the SJV, can cause large changes in groundwater quality on a regional scale.

California↗

Biological responses of Pacific herring embryos to crude oil are quantifiable at exposure levels below conventional limits of quantitation for PAHs in water and tissues

Pacific herring ( Clupea pallasii ), a cornerstone of marine food webs, generally spawn on marine macroalgae in shallow nearshore areas that are disproportionately at risk from oil spills. Herring embryos are also highly susceptible to toxicity from chemicals leaching from oil stranded in intertidal and subtidal zones. The water-soluble components of crude oil trigger an adverse outcome pathway that involves disruption of the physiological functions of cardiomyocytes in the embryonic herring heart. In previous studies, impaired ionoregulation (calcium and potassium cycling) in response to specific polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) corresponds to lethal embryolarval heart failure or subtle chamber malformations at the high and low ends of the PAH exposure range, respectively. Sublethal cardiotoxicity, which involves an abnormal outgrowth (ballooning) of the cardiac ventricular chamber soon after hatching, subsequently compromises juvenile heart structure and function, leading to pathological hypertrophy of the ventricle and reduced individual fitness, measured as cardiorespiratory performance. Previous studies have not established a threshold for these sublethal and delayed-in-time effects, even with total (∑)PAH exposures as low as 29 ng/g of wet weight (tissue dose). Here, we extend these earlier findings showing that (1) cyp1a gene expression provides an oil exposure metric that is more sensitive than typical quantitation of PAHs via GC–MS and (2) heart morphometrics in herring embryos provide a similarly sensitive measure of toxic response. Early life stage injury to herring (impaired heart development) thus occurs below the quantitation limits for PAHs in both water and embryonic tissues as a conventional basis for assessing oil-induced losses to coastal marine ecosystems.

Environmental Science and Technology↗

Program design for San Francisco Bay Region environment and resources planning study

The "Program Design" for the San Francisco Bay Region Environment and Resources Planning Study represents a refinement, elaboration, and extension of the plans which formed the basis for the cooperative program between the Department of the Interior, Geological Survey, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Research and Technology, formally recognized in the Letter of Agreement of October 24, 1969, and begun January 1, 1970. From the first, the study was recognized as an experimental pilot study, and new developments in the state-of-the-art in the earth sciences and in urban and regional planning were recognized as necessary. Indeed, the development of a suitable structure for such a program was considered one of the important parts of the experiment. Consequently, one of the stated goals of the Letter of Agreement was to produce a Program Design.

California↗

Long-term water-quality constituent trends in the Little Arkansas River, south-central Kansas, 1995–2021

The Equus Beds aquifer and Cheney Reservoir are primary sources for the city of Wichita’s current (2023) water supply. The Equus Beds aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) project was developed by the city of Wichita in the early 1990s to meet future water demands using the Little Arkansas River as an artificial aquifer recharge water source during above-base-flow conditions. Little Arkansas River water is removed from the river at an ASR Facility intake structure, treated using National Primary Drinking Water Regulations as a guideline, and is infiltrated into the Equus Beds aquifer through recharge basins or injected into the aquifer through recharge wells for later use. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Wichita, completed this study to quantify and characterize Little Arkansas River water-quality data. Data in this report can be used to evaluate changing conditions, provide science-based information for decision making, and help meet regulatory requirements. Continuous (hourly) physicochemical properties were measured, and discrete water-quality samples were collected from three Little Arkansas River sites located along the easternmost extent of the Equus Beds aquifer during 1995 through 2021 over a range of streamflow conditions. The Little Arkansas River at Highway 50 near Halstead, Kansas, streamgage (U.S. Geological Survey station 07143672; hereafter referred to as the “Highway 50 site”) is located upstream from the other two sites, and the Little Arkansas River near Sedgwick, Kans., streamgage (U.S. Geological Survey station 07144100; hereafter referred to as the “Sedgwick site”) is located downstream from the other two sites; these two sites bracket most of the easternmost part of the Equus Beds aquifer. The Little Arkansas River upstream of ASR Facility near Sedgwick, Kans., streamgage (U.S. Geological Survey station 375350097262800; hereafter referred to as the “Upstream ASR site”) is located between the Highway 50 and Sedgwick sites, about 14.7 river miles (mi) downstream from the Highway 50 site, about 1.7 river mi upstream from the Sedgwick site, and immediately upstream from the ASR Facility intake structure. Surrogate models for water-quality constituents of interest (including bromide, dissolved organic carbon, 2-chloro-4-isopropylamino-6-amino- s -triazine [deethylatrazine], atrazine, and metolachlor) were updated or developed using continuously measured and concomitant discrete data. These surrogate models, along with previously developed regression models, were used to compute concentrations (at the Highway 50, Sedgwick, and Upstream ASR sites) and loads (at the Highway 50 and Sedgwick sites) during the study period. Federal criteria were used to evaluate water quality. Where applicable, water-quality data were compared to Federal national drinking-water regulations. Flow-normalized water-quality constituent trends were evaluated using Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) statistical models and water-quality trends were described using WRTDS bootstrap tests. Continuously computed primary ion concentrations were generally larger at the Highway 50 site compared to the Sedgwick site. During the study period, the Federal secondary maximum contaminant level (SMCL) for dissolved solids was exceeded 57 percent of the time at the Highway 50 site and 38 percent of the time at the Sedgwick site. Computed bromide concentrations were larger at the Highway 50 site and exceeded the city of Wichita treatment threshold about 70, 21, and 19 percent of the time at the Highway 50, Sedgwick, and Upstream ASR sites, respectively. Chloride concentrations exceeded the Federal SMCL about 16 percent of the time at the Highway 50 site and did not exceed the SMCL at the Sedgwick site. Continuous arsenic concentrations exceeded the Federal Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) 9 to 15 percent of the time at the Sedgwick and Highway 50 sites, respectively, during the study. Atrazine concentrations exceeded the Federal MCL 10 percent of the time at the Highway 50 and Sedgwick sites and 14 percent of the time at the Upstream ASR site during the study; computed glyphosate concentrations at the Sedgwick site never exceeded the MCL during the study. Little Arkansas River flow-normalized primary ion concentrations during 1995 through 2021 generally had downward trends and decreases were generally larger at the Highway 50 site compared to the Sedgwick site. Dissolved solids and chloride concentrations decreased at the Highway 50 and Sedgwick sites. Bromide had no trend at the Highway 50 site and a downward trend at the Sedgwick site. Nitrate plus nitrite and total phosphorus concentrations had upward trends at the Highway 50 site but downward trends at the Sedgwick site, whereas total organic carbon had upward trends at both sites. Nitrate plus nitrite, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total organic carbon fluxes had upward trends at the Highway 50 and Sedgwick sites. Suspended-sediment concentrations had an upward trend at the Highway 50 site and had no trend at the Sedgwick site. Arsenic concentrations had downward trends at the Highway 50 and Sedgwick sites. About one-quarter to one-half of the Little Arkansas River loads, including nutrients and sediment, were transported during 1 percent of the time during the study. Because streamflows are highly sensitive to climatic variation and an increase of extreme precipitation events in the Great Plains is expected, similar disproportionately large pollutant loading events may increase into the future. Continuous measurement of physicochemical properties in near-real time allowed characterization of Little Arkansas River surface water during conditions and time scales that would not have been possible otherwise and served as a complement to discrete water-quality sampling. Continuation of this water-quality monitoring will provide data to characterize changing conditions in the Little Arkansas River and possibly identify new and changing trends. Information in this report allows the city of Wichita to make informed municipal water-supply decisions using past and present water-quality conditions and trends in the watershed.

Kansas↗

Predicting water temperature dynamics of unmonitored lakes with meta-transfer learning

Most environmental data come from a minority of well-monitored sites. An ongoing challenge in the environmental sciences is transferring knowledge from monitored sites to unmonitored sites. Here, we demonstrate a novel transfer-learning framework that accurately predicts depth-specific temperature in unmonitored lakes (targets) by borrowing models from well-monitored lakes (sources). This method, meta-transfer learning (MTL), builds a meta-learning model to predict transfer performance from candidate source models to targets using lake attributes and candidates' past performance. We constructed source models at 145 well-monitored lakes using calibrated process-based (PB) modeling and a recently developed approach called process-guided deep learning (PGDL). We applied MTL to either PB or PGDL source models (PB-MTL or PGDL-MTL, respectively) to predict temperatures in 305 target lakes treated as unmonitored in the Upper Midwestern United States. We show significantly improved performance relative to the uncalibrated PB General Lake Model, where the median root mean squared error (RMSE) for the target lakes is 2.52°C. PB-MTL yielded a median RMSE of 2.43°C; PGDL-MTL yielded 2.16°C; and a PGDL-MTL ensemble of nine sources per target yielded 1.88°C. For sparsely monitored target lakes, PGDL-MTL often outperformed PGDL models trained on the target lakes themselves. Differences in maximum depth between the source and target were consistently the most important predictors. Our approach readily scales to thousands of lakes in the Midwestern United States, demonstrating that MTL with meaningful predictor variables and high-quality source models is a promising approach for many kinds of unmonitored systems and environmental variables.

Water Resources Research↗

Predicting the occurrence of chemicals of emerging concern in surface water and sediment across the U.S. portion of the Great Lakes Basin

Chemicals of emerging concern (CECs) are introduced into the aquatic environment via various sources, posing a potential risk to aquatic organisms. Previous studies have identified relationships between the presence of CECs in water and broad-scale watershed characteristics. However, relationships between the presence of CECs and source-related watershed characteristics have not been explored across the Great Lakes basin. Boosted regression tree (BRT) analyses were used to develop predictive models of CEC occurrence in water and sediment throughout 24 U.S. tributaries to the Great Lakes. Models were based on the distribution of both broad-scale and source-related watershed characteristics. Twenty-one upstream watershed characteristics, including land cover, number of permitted point sources, and distance to point sources were used to develop models predicting the probability of CEC occurrence in surface water and bottom sediment. Total accuracy of BRT models ranged from 66% to 94% for both matrices. All 21 watershed characteristics were important predictor variables in at least one surface-water model; twenty were important in at least one bottom-sediment model. Among the model variables, developed land use and distance to point sources were important predictors of the presence of CEC classes in both water and sediment. Although limitations exist, BRT models are one tool available for assessing vulnerability of fisheries and aquatic resources to CEC occurrences.

Great Lakes basin↗