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At least 451 records · Page 25Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Water quality and algal community dynamics of three deepwater lakes in Minnesota utilizing CE-QUAL-W2 models

Water quality, habitat, and fish in Minnesota lakes will potentially be facing substantial levels of stress in the coming decades primarily because of two stressors: (1) land-use change (urban and agricultural) and (2) climate change. Several regional and statewide lake modeling studies have identified the potential linkages between land-use and climate change on reductions in the volume of suitable lake habitat for coldwater fish populations. In recent years, water-resource scientists have been making the case for focused assessments and monitoring of sentinel systems to address how these stress agents change lakes over the long term. Currently in Minnesota, a large-scale effort called “Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment” is underway that includes a focus on monitoring basic watershed, water quality, habitat, and fish indicators of 24 Minnesota sentinel lakes across a gradient of ecoregions, depths, and nutrient levels. As part of this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, developed predictive water quality models to assess water quality and habitat dynamics of three select deepwater lakes in Minnesota. The three lakes (Lake Carlos in Douglas County, Elk Lake in Clearwater County, and Trout Lake in Cook County) were assessed under recent (2010–11) meteorological conditions. The three selected lakes contain deep, coldwater habitats that remain viable during the summer months for coldwater fish species. Hydrodynamics and water-quality characteristics for each of the three lakes were simulated using the CE-QUAL-W2 model, which is a carbon-based, laterally averaged, two-dimensional water-quality model. The CE-QUAL-W2 models address the interaction between nutrient cycling, primary production, and trophic dynamics to predict responses in the distribution of temperature and oxygen in lakes. The CE-QUAL-W2 models for all three lakes successfully predicted water temperature, on the basis of the two metrics of absolute mean error and root mean square error, using measured inputs of water temperature and nutrients. One of the main calibration tools for CE-QUAL-W2 model development was the vertical profile temperature data, available for all three lakes. For all three lakes, the absolute mean error and root mean square error were less than 1.0 degree Celsius and 1.2 degrees Celsius, respectively, for the different depth ranges used for vertical profile comparisons. In Lake Carlos, simulated water temperatures compared better to measured water temperatures in the epilimnion than in the hypolimnion. The reverse was true for the other two lakes, Elk Lake and Trout Lake, where the simulated results were slightly better for the hypolimnion than the epilimnion. The model also was used to approximate the location of the thermocline throughout the simulation periods, approximately April to November, in all three lake models. Deviations between the simulated and measured water temperatures in the vertical lake profile commonly were because of an offset in the timing of thermocline shifts rather than the simulated results missing thermocline shifts altogether.

Minnesota↗
USGS2016

Collision and displacement vulnerability among marine birds of the California Current System associated with offshore wind energy infrastructure

With growing climate change concerns and energy constraints, there is an increasing need for renewable energy sources within the United States and globally. Looking forward, offshore wind-energy infrastructure (OWEI) has the potential to produce a significant proportion of the power needed to reach our Nation’s renewable energy goal. Offshore wind-energy sites can capitalize open areas within Federal waters that have persistent, high winds with large energy production potential. Although there are few locations in the California Current System (CCS) where it would be acceptable to build pile-mounted wind turbines in waters less than 50 m deep, the development of technology able to support deep-water OWEI (>200 m depth) could enable wind-energy production in the CCS. As with all human-use of the marine environment, understanding the potential impacts of wind-energy infrastructure on the marine ecosystem is an integral part of offshore wind-energy research and planning. Herein, we present a comprehensive database to quantify marine bird vulnerability to potential OWEI in the CCS (see https://doi.org/10.5066/F79C6VJ0 ). These data were used to quantify marine bird vulnerabilities at the population level. For 81 marine bird species present in the CCS, we created three vulnerability indices: Population Vulnerability, Collision Vulnerability, and Displacement Vulnerability. Population Vulnerability was used as a scaling factor to generate two comprehensive indicies: Population Collision Vulnerability (PCV) and Population Displacement Vulnerability (PDV). Within the CCS, pelicans, terns (Forster’s [ Sterna forsteri ], Caspian [ Hydroprogne caspia ], Elegant [ Thalasseus elegans ], and Least Tern [ Sternula antillarum ]), gulls (Western [ Larus occidentalis ] and Bonaparte’s Gull [ Chroicocephalus philadelphia ]), South Polar Skua ( Stercorarius maccormicki ), and Brandt’s Cormorant ( Phalacrocorax penicillatus ) had the greatest PCV scores. Brown Pelican ( Pelicanus occidentalis ) had the greatest overall PCV score. Some alcids (Scripps’s Murrelet [ Synthliboramphus scrippsi ], Marbled Murrelet [ Brachyramphus marmoratus ], and Tufted Puffin [ Fratercula cirrhata ]), terns (Elegant and Least Lern), and loons (Yellow-billed [ Gavia adamsii ] and Common Loon [ G. immer ]) had the greatest PDV scores. Ashy Storm-Petrel ( Oceanodroma homochroa ) had the greatest overall PDV score. To help inform decisions that will impact seabird conservation, vulnerability assessment results can now be combined with recent marine bird at-sea distribution and abundance data for the CCS to evaluate vulnerability areas where OWEI development is being considered. Lastly, it is important to note that as new information about seabird behavior and populations in the CCS becomes available, this database can be easily updated and modified.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2006

Water-Table Levels and Gradients, Nevada, 1947-2004

In 1999, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency began a program to protect the quality of ground water in areas other than ground-water protection areas. These other sensitive ground water areas (OSGWA) are areas that are not currently, but could eventually be, used as a source of drinking water. The OSGWA program specifically addresses existing wells that are used for underground injection of motor-vehicle waste. To help determine whether a well is in an OSGWA, the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection needs statewide information on depth to water and the water table, which partly control the susceptibility of ground water to contamination and contaminant transport. This report describes a study that used available maps and data to create statewide maps of water-table and depth-to-water contours and surfaces, assessed temporal changes in water-table levels, and characterized water-table gradients in selected areas of Nevada. A literature search of published water-table and depth-to-water contours produced maps of varying detail and scope in 104 reports published from 1948 to 2004. Where multiple maps covered the same area, criteria were used to select the most recent, detailed maps that covered the largest area and had plotted control points. These selection criteria resulted in water-table and depth-to-water contours that are based on data collected from 1947 to 2004 being selected from 39 reports. If not already available digitally, contours and control points were digitized from selected maps, entered into a geographic information system, and combined to make a statewide map of water-table contours. Water-table surfaces were made by using inverse distance weighting to estimate the water table between contours and then gridding the estimates. Depth-to-water surfaces were made by subtracting the water-table altitude from the land-surface altitude. Water-table and depth-to-water surfaces were made for only 21 percent of Nevada because of a lack of information for 49 of 232 basins and for most consolidated-rock hydrogeologic units. Depth to water is commonly less than 50 feet beneath valley floors, 50 to 500 feet beneath alluvial fans, and more than 500 feet in some areas such as north-central and southern Nevada. In areas without water-table information, greasewood and mapped ground-water discharge areas are good indicators of depth to water less than 100 feet. The average difference between measured depth to water and depth to water estimated from surfaces was 90 feet. More recent and detailed information may be needed than that presented in this report to evaluate a specific site. Temporal changes in water-table levels were evaluated for 1,981 wells with 10 or more years between the first depth-to-water measurement and last measurement made since 1990. The greatest increases in depth to water occurred where the first measurement was less than 200 feet, where the time between first and last measurements was 40 years or less, and for wells between 100 and 600 feet deep. These characteristics describe production wells where ground water is fairly shallow in recently developing areas such as the Las Vegas and Reno metropolitan areas. In basins with little pumping, 90 percent of the changes during the past 100 years are within ?20 feet, which is about the natural variation in the water table due to changes in the climate and recharge. Gradients in unconsolidated sediments of the Great Basin are generally steep near mountain fronts, shallow beneath valley floors, and depend on variables such as the horizontal hydraulic conductivity of adjacent consolidated rocks and recharge. Gradients beneath alluvial fans and valley floors at 58 sites were correlated with selected variables to identify those variables that are statistically related. Water-table measurements at three sites were used to characterize the water table between the valley floor and consolidated rock. Water-table gradients beneath alluvial fan

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2013

Determination of flow losses in the Cape Fear River between B. Everett Jordan Lake and Lillington, North Carolina, 2008-2010

During 2008-2010, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a hydrologic investigation in cooperation with the Triangle J Council of Governments Cape Fear River Flow Study Committee and the North Carolina Division of Water Resources to collect hydrologic data in the Cape Fear River between B. Everett Jordan Lake and Lillington in central North Carolina to help determine if suspected flow losses occur in the reach. Flow loss analyses were completed by summing the daily flow releases at Jordan Lake Dam with the daily discharges at Deep River at Moncure and Buckhorn Creek near Corinth, then subtracting these values from the daily discharges at Cape Fear River at Lillington. Examination of long-term records revealed that during 10,227 days of the 1983-2010 water years, 408 days (4.0 percent) had flow loss when conditions were relatively steady with respect to the previous day's records. The flow loss that occurred on these 40 days ranged from 0.49 to 2,150 cubic feet per second with a median flow loss of 37.2 cubic feet per second. The months with the highest number of days with flow losses were June (16. percent), September (16.9 percent), and October (19.4 percent). A series of synoptic discharge measurements made on six separate days in 2009 provided "snapshots" of overall flow conditions along the study reach. The largest water diversion is just downstream from the confluence of the Haw and Deep Rivers, and discharges substantially decrease in the main stem downstream from the intake point. Downstream from Buckhorn Dam, minimal gain or loss between the dam and Raven Rock State Park was noted. Analyses of discharge measurements and ratings for two streamgages-one at Deep River at Moncure and the other at Cape Fear River at Lillington-were completed to address the accuracy of the relation between stage and discharge at these sites. The ratings analyses did not indicate a particular time during the 1982-2011 water years in which a consistent bias occurred in the computations of discharge records that would indicate false flow losses. A total of 34 measured discharges at a streamgage on the Haw River below B. Everett Jordan Lake near Moncure were compared with the reported hourly flow releases from Jordan Lake Dam. Because 28 of 34 measurements were within plus or minus 10 percent of the hourly flow releases reported by the U.S Army Corps of Engineers, use of the current discharge computation tables for reporting Jordan Lake Dam flow releases is generally supported. A stage gage was operated on the Cape Fear River at Buckhorn Dam near Corinth to collect continuous stage-only records. Throughout the study period, flow over the dam was observed along its length, and flow loss within the study reach is not attributed to river-level fluctuations at the dam. Water-use information and (or) data were obtained for five industrial facilities, a regional power utility, two municipalities, one small hydropower facility on the Deep River, and one quarry operation also adjacent to the Deep River. The largest water users are the regional power producer, a small hydropower operation, and the two municipalities. The total water-use diversions for these facilities range from almost 25.5 to 38.5 cubic feet per second (39.5 to 59.5 million gallons per day) during the winter and summer periods, respectively. This range is equivalent to 69 to 104 percent of the 37 cubic feet per second median flow loss. The Lockville hydropower station is on the Deep River about 1 mile downstream from the streamgage near Moncure. Run-of-river operations at the facility do not appear to affect flow losses in the study reach. The largest water user in the study area is a regional power producer at a coal-fired power-generation plant located immediately adjacent to the Cape Fear River just downstream from the confluence of the Haw an Deep Rivers. Comparisons of daily water withdrawals, sup-plied by the regional power producer, and discharge records at a streamgage on the diversion canal indicated many days when consumption exceeded the producer's estimates for the cooling towers. Uncertainty surrounding reasonable estimates of consumption remained in effect at the end of the study. Data concerning evaporative losses were compiled using two approaches-an analysis of available pan-evaporation data from a National Weather Service cooperative observer station in Chapel Hill, North Carolina; and a compilation of reference open-water evaporation computed by the State Climate Office of North Carolina. The potential flow loss by evaporation from the main stem and the Deep River was estimated to be in the range of 4 to 14 cubic feet per second during May through October, equivalent to 10 to 38 percent of the 37 cubic feet per second median flow loss. Daily water-use diversions and evaporation losses were compared to flow-loss occurrences during the period April 2008 through September 2010. In comparing the surface-water, water-use, and evaporation data compiled for 2008-2010, it is evident that documented water diversions combined with flow losses by open-water evaporation can exceed the net flow gain in the study area and result in flow losses from the reach. Analysis of data from a streamgage downstream from the regional power plant on the diversion canal adjacent to the Cape Fear River provided insight into the occurrence of an apparent flow loss at the streamgage at Lillington. Assessment of the daily discharges and subsequent hydrographs for the canal streamgage indicated at least 24 instances during the study when the flows suddenly changed by magnitudes of 100 to more that 200 cubic feet per second, resulting in a noted time-lag effect on the downstream discharges at the Lillington streamgage, beginning 8 to 16 hours after the sudden flow change. A fiber-optic distributed temperature-sensing survey was conducted on the Cape Fear River at the Raven Rock State Park reach August 12-14, 2009, to determine if the presence of diabase dikes were preferentially directing groundwater discharge. No temperature anomalies of colder water were measured during the survey, which indicated that at the time of the survey that particular reach of the Cape Fear River was a "no-flow" or losing stream. An aerial thermal-infrared survey was conducted on the Haw and Cape Fear Rivers on February 27, 2010, from Jordan Lake Dam to Lillington to qualitatively delineate areas of groundwater discharge on the basis of the contrast between warm groundwater discharge and cold surface-water temperatures. Dis-charge generally was noted as diffuse seepage, but in a few cases springs were detected as inflow at a discrete point of discharge. Two reaches of the Cape Fear River (regional power plant and Bradley Road reaches) were selected for groundwater monitoring with a transect of piezometers installed within the flood plain. Groundwater-level altitudes at these reaches were analyzed for 1 water year (October 1, 2009, to September 30, 2010). Data collected as part of this study represent only a brief period of time and may not represent all conditions and all years; however, the data indicate that, during the dry summer months, the Cape Fear River within the study area is losing an undetermined quantity of water through seepage. Analyses completed during this investigation indicate a study reach with complex flow patterns affected by numerous concurrent factors resulting in flow losses. The causes of flow loss could not be solely attributed to any one factor. Among the factors considered, the occurrences of water diversions and evaporative losses were determined to be sufficient on some days (particularly during the base-flow period) to exceed the net gain in flows between the upstream and downstream ends of the study area. Losses by diversions and evaporation can exceed the median flow loss of 3 cubic feet per second, which indicates that flow loss from the study reach is real. Groundwater data collected during 2009-2010 indicate the possibility of localized flow loss during the summer, particularly in the impounded reach above Buckhorn Dam. However, no indication of unusual patterns was noted that would cause substantial flow loss by groundwater and surface-water interaction at the river bottom.

North Carolina↗
USGS2023

Simulation of future streamflow and irrigation demand based on climate and urban growth projections in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, North Carolina and South Carolina, 2055–65

Water resources in the coastal region of North Carolina and South Carolina (Coastal Carolinas) are currently under stress from competing ecological and societal needs. Projected changes in climate and population are expected to place even more stress on water resources in the region. The Coastal Carolinas Focus Area Study was initiated by the U.S. Geological Survey Water Availability and Use Science Program’s National Water Census to investigate these stressors and their effects on water resources for the Coastal Carolinas. As part of that study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to investigate future streamflow and irrigation demand under six scenarios for the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, which flow through the Coastal Carolinas and into the Atlantic Ocean. For each river basin, historical (2000 through 2014) Soil and Water Assessment Tool models were minimally calibrated, and future (2055 through 2065) scenario models were developed based on three alternative global climate models, two alternative urban growth projections, and water-use projections that correspond to each global climate model and urban growth projection pair. The river basins were delineated into 2,928 and 5,678 subbasins for the Cape Fear and Pee Dee, respectively, each approximately 2.6 square miles (mi 2 ) in size. The best available water-use and wastewater discharge data were used for historical model calibration. The models simulated monthly mean streamflow with median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.53 (n = 36) and 0.61 (n = 33) in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, respectively. Average percent bias was −4.8 percent for the Cape Fear River Basin and −1.2 percent for the Pee Dee River Basin. Catchments for streamgages chosen for model calibration that were small (less than 100 mi 2 ) to medium (100–1,000 mi 2 ) in area tended to perform better than larger catchments (greater than 1,000 mi 2 ). Historical models were used to develop future model scenarios by replacing historical weather, land-use, and water-use input datasets with projected datasets. One small, gaged catchment was selected to illustrate how the models can be used to evaluate the relative differences in simulated streamflow resulting from alternative global climate models and urban growth projections. For the selected catchment, future climate projections had a much greater influence on simulated streamflow than urban growth projections. Simulated cumulative monthly mean streamflow results for this catchment differed by 26 percent under alternative global climate models and differed by 2.4 percent under alternative urban growth projections. Irrigation demand was modeled for subbasins with cropland. Simulated differences in irrigation demand were more pronounced and widespread across the model domain under the alternative future climate scenarios compared to alternative urban growth scenarios. The calibrated and future scenario models have the capability to run on a daily time step and simulate streamflow and irrigation demand for thousands of small subbasins in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins. The models and underlying datasets enable future analyses for large and small areas within the basins.

North Carolina, South Carolina↗
USGS1984

Origin and geochemistry of Cretaceous deep-sea black shales and multicolored claystones, with emphasis on Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 530, southern Angola Basin

Deep-water sedimentary sequences of mid-Cretaceous age, rich in organic carbon, have been recovered at many DSDP sites in the Atlantic Ocean. Most of these sequences have a marked cyclicity in amount of organic carbon resulting in interbedded multicolored shale, marlstone, and (or) limestone that have cycle periods of 20,000 to 100,000 years and average 40,000 to 50,000 years. These cycles may be related to some climatic control on influx of terrigenous organic matter and sediment, rates of upwelling and sea-surface production of organic matter, and preservation of organic matter related to deeper-water dissolved oxygen concentration. These variations in supply of organic matter had pronounced effects on the potential of the sediment for subsequent diagenetic changes and geochemical partitioning in adjacent beds. Many trace elements are enriched in organic-carbon-rich lithologies relative to interbedded organic-carbon-poor lithologies. Elements that are most commonly enriched are Cr, Ni, V, Cu, Zn, and Mo. The association of high traceelement concentrations with organic matter may be the result of concentration of these elements by organisms or by chemical sorption and precipitation processes under anoxic conditions. Detailed trace-element profiles from organiccarbon-rich strata at Site 530 suggest that there may be differential mobility of trace elements, with diffusion of some elements over distances of at least tens of meters. The sequence of trace-element mobility, from highest to lowest, is approximately Ba, Mn, Pb, Ni, Co, Cr, Cu, Zn, V, Cd, and Mo. Slowly deposited, oxidized clays directly overlying some black shale sequences are enriched in some metals, particularly Fe, Mn, Zn, and Cu, relative to normal pelagic clays, and this enrichment may be the result of upward migration of metals in pore waters during compaction or diffusion from the underlying black shale. Most depositional models that have been used to explain the accumulation of the organic-carbon-rich strata imply that reducing conditions in the sediments (and therefore the increased degree of preservation of organic matter) were the result of anoxic or near-anoxic conditions in oceanic bottom waters, or in a midwater oxygen-minimum zone. Evidence from several DSDP sites in the Atlantic, however, indicate that some of these middle Cretaceous "black shale" beds may be the result of variations in rate of supply of organic matter that produced anoxia or near-anoxia within midwater oxygen-minimum zones and possibly, under extreme conditions, throughout much of the bottomwater mass. Although bottom-water anoxia may have occurred during periods of organic-carbon-rich strata, it was not necessarily the only cause for accumulation of these strata. The main reason for the accumulation of organic-carbonrich strata was an increase in the relative amount of organic debris being deposited. Some of this organic debris was derived from continental-margin areas of increased production, accumulation, and preservation of organic matter from marine, terrestrial, or mixed sources and transported to slope and basinal sites by turbidity currents.

Initial Reports of the D.S.D.P.↗
USGS2011

Simulated changes in salinity in the York and Chickahominy Rivers from projected sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay

As a result of climate change and variability, sea level is rising throughout the world, but the rate along the east coast of the United States is higher than the global mean rate. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Newport News, Virginia, conducted a study to evaluate the effects of possible future sea-level rise on the salinity front in two tributaries to Chesapeake Bay, the York River, and the Chickahominy/James River estuaries. Numerical modeling was used to represent sea-level rise and the resulting hydrologic effects. Estuarine models for the two tributaries were developed and model simulations were made by use of the Three-Dimensional Hydrodynamic-Eutrophication Model (HEM-3D), developed by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science. HEM-3D was used to simulate tides, tidal currents, and salinity for Chesapeake Bay, the York River and the Chickahominy/James River. The three sea-level rise scenarios that were evaluated showed an increase of 30, 50, and 100 centimeters (cm). Model results for both estuaries indicated that high freshwater river flow was effective in pushing the salinity back toward Chesapeake Bay. Model results indicated that increases in mean salinity will greatly alter the existing water-quality gradients between brackish water and freshwater. This will be particularly important for the freshwater part of the Chickahominy River, where a drinking-water-supply intake for the City of Newport News is located. Significant changes in the salinity gradients for the York River and Chickahominy/James River estuaries were predicted for the three sea-level rise scenarios. When a 50-cm sea-level rise scenario on the York River during a typical year (2005) was used, the model simulation showed a salinity of 15 parts per thousand (ppt) at river kilometer (km) 39. During a dry year (2002), the same salinity (15 ppt) was simulated at river km 45, which means that saltwater was shown to migrate 6 km farther upstream during a dry year than a typical year. The same was true of the Chickahominy River for a 50-cm sea-level rise scenario but to a greater extent; a salinity of 4 ppt was simulated at river km 13 during a typical year and at river km 28 during a dry year, indicating that saltwater migrated 15 km farther upstream during a dry year. Near a drinking-water intake on the Chickahominy River, for a dry year, salinity is predicted to more than double for all three sea-level rise scenarios, relative to a typical year. During a typical year at this location, salinity is predicted to increase to 0.006, 0.07, and more than 2 ppt for the 30-, 50-, and 100-cm rise scenarios, respectively.

Virginia↗
USGS2012

Simulation of groundwater conditions and streamflow depletion to evaluate water availability in a Freeport, Maine, watershed

In order to evaluate water availability in the State of Maine, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Maine Geological Survey began a cooperative investigation to provide the first rigorous evaluation of watersheds deemed "at risk" because of the combination of instream flow requirements and proportionally large water withdrawals. The study area for this investigation includes the Harvey and Merrill Brook watersheds and the Freeport aquifer in the towns of Freeport, Pownal, and Yarmouth, Maine. A numerical groundwater- flow model was used to evaluate groundwater withdrawals, groundwater-surface-water interactions, and the effect of water-management practices on streamflow. The water budget illustrates the effect that groundwater withdrawals have on streamflow and the movement of water within the system. Streamflow measurements were made following standard USGS techniques, from May through September 2009 at one site in the Merrill Brook watershed and four sites in the Harvey Brook watershed. A record-extension technique was applied to estimate long-term monthly streamflows at each of the five sites. The conceptual model of the groundwater system consists of a deep, confined aquifer (the Freeport aquifer) in a buried valley that trends through the middle of the study area, covered by a discontinuous confining unit, and topped by a thin upper saturated zone that is a mixture of sandy units, till, and weathered clay. Harvey and Merrill Brooks flow southward through the study area, and receive groundwater discharge from the upper saturated zone and from the deep aquifer through previously unknown discontinuities in the confining unit. The Freeport aquifer gets most of its recharge from local seepage around the edges of the confining unit, the remainder is received as inflow from the north within the buried valley. Groundwater withdrawals from the Freeport aquifer in the study area were obtained from the local water utility and estimated for other categories. Overall, the public-supply withdrawals (105.5 million gallons per year (Mgal/yr)) were much greater than those for any other category, being almost 7 times greater than all domestic well withdrawals (15.3 Mgal/yr). Industrial withdrawals in the study area (2.0 Mgal/yr) are mostly by a company that withdraws from an aquifer at the edge of the Merrill Brook watershed. Commercial withdrawals are very small (1.0 Mgal/yr), and no irrigation or other agricultural withdrawals were identified in this study area. A three-dimensional, steady-state groundwater-flow model was developed to evaluate stream-aquifer interactions and streamflow depletion from pumping, to help refine the conceptual model, and to predict changes in streamflow resulting from changes in pumping and recharge. Groundwater levels and flow in the Freeport aquifer study area were simulated with the three-dimensional, finite-difference groundwater-flow modeling code, MODFLOW-2005. Study area hydrology was simulated with a 3-layer model, under steady-state conditions. The groundwater model was used to evaluate changes that could occur in the water budgets of three parts of the local hydrologic system (the Harvey Brook watershed, the Merrill Brook watershed, and the buried aquifer from which pumping occurs) under several different climatic and pumping scenarios. The scenarios were (1) no pumping well withdrawals; (2) current (2009) pumping, but simulated drought conditions (20-percent reduction in recharge); (3) current (2009) recharge, but a 50-percent increase in pumping well withdrawals for public supply; and (4) drought conditions and increased pumping combined. In simulated drought situations, the overall recharge to the buried valley is about 15 percent less and the total amount of streamflow in the model area is reduced by about 19 percent. Without pumping, infiltration to the buried valley aquifer around the confining unit decreased by a small amount (0.05 million gallons per day (Mgal/d)), and discharge to the streams increased by about 8 percent (0.3 Mgal/d). A 50-percent increase in pumping resulted in a simulated decrease in streamflow discharge of about 4 percent (0.14 Mgal/d). Streamflow depletion in Harvey Brook was evaluated by use of the numerical groundwater-flow model and an analytical model. The analytical model estimated negligible depletion from Harvey Brook under current (2009) pumping conditions, whereas the numerical model estimated that flow to Harvey Brook decreased 0.38 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) because of the pumping well withdrawals. A sensitivity analysis of the analytical model method showed that conducting a cursory evaluation using an analytical model of streamflow depletion using available information may result in a very wide range in results, depending on how well the hydraulic conductivity variables and aquifer geometry of the system are known, and how well the aquifer fits the assumptions of the model. Using the analytical model to evaluate the streamflow depletion with an incomplete understanding of the hydrologic system gave results that seem unlikely to reflect actual streamflow depletion in the Freeport aquifer study area. In contrast, the groundwater-flow model was a more robust method of evaluating the amount of streamflow depletion that results from withdrawals in the Freeport aquifer, and could be used to evaluate streamflow depletion in both streams. Simulations of streamflow without pumping for each measurement site were compared to the calibratedmodel streamflow (with pumping), the difference in the total being streamflow depletion. Simulations without pumping resulted in a simulated increase in the steady-state flow rate of 0.38 ft 3 /s in Harvey Brook and 0.01 ft 3 /s in Merrill Brook. This translates into a streamflow-depletion amount equal to about 8.5 percent of the steady-state base flow in Harvey Brook, and an unmeasurable amount of depletion in Merrill Brook. If pumping was increased by 50 percent and recharge reduced by 20 percent, the amount of streamflow depletion in Harvey Brook could reach 1.41 ft 3 /s.

Maine↗
USGS2012

Evaluation of long-term water-level declines in basalt aquifers near Mosier, Oregon

The Mosier area lies along the Columbia River in northwestern Wasco County between the cities of Hood River and The Dalles, Oregon. Major water uses in the area are irrigation, municipal supply for the city of Mosier, and domestic supply for rural residents. The primary source of water is groundwater from the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG) aquifers that underlie the area. Concerns regarding this supply of water arose in the mid-1970s, when groundwater levels in the orchard tract area began to steadily decline. In the 1980s, the Oregon Water Resources Department (OWRD) conducted a study of the aquifer system, which resulted in delineation of an administrative area where parts of the Pomona and Priest Rapids aquifers were withdrawn from further appropriations for any use other than domestic supply. Despite this action, water levels continued to drop at approximately the same, nearly constant annual rate of about 4 feet per year, resulting in a current total decline of between 150 and 200 feet in many wells with continued downward trends. In 2005, the Mosier Watershed Council and the Wasco Soil and Water Conservation District began a cooperative investigation of the groundwater system with the U.S. Geological Survey. The objectives of the study were to advance the scientific understanding of the hydrology of the basin, to assess the sustainability of the water supply, to evaluate the causes of persistent groundwater-level declines, and to evaluate potential management strategies. An additional U.S. Geological Survey objective was to advance the understanding of CRBG aquifers, which are the primary source of water across a large part of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. In many areas, significant groundwater level declines have resulted as these aquifers were heavily developed for agricultural, municipal, and domestic water supplies. Three major factors were identified as possible contributors to the water-level declines in the study area: (1) pumping at rates that are not sustainable, (2) well construction practices that have resulted in leakage from aquifers into springs and streams, and (3) reduction in aquifer recharge resulting from long-term climate variations. Historical well construction practices, specifically open, unlined, uncased boreholes that result in cross-connecting (or commingling) multiple aquifers, allow water to flow between these aquifers. Water flowing along the path of least resistance, through commingled boreholes, allows the drainage of aquifers that previously stored water more efficiently. The study area is in the eastern foothills of the Cascade Range in north central Oregon in a transitional zone between the High Cascades to the west and the Columbia Plateau to the east. The 78-square mile (mi 2 ) area is defined by the drainages of three streams - Mosier Creek (51.8 mi 2 ), Rock Creek (13.9 mi 2 ), and Rowena Creek (6.9 mi 2 ) - plus a small area that drains directly to the Columbia River.The three major components of the study are: (1) a 2-year intensive data collection period to augment previous streamflow and groundwater-level measurements, (2) precipitation-runoff modeling of the watersheds to determine the amount of recharge to the aquifer system, and (3) groundwater-flow modeling and analysis to evaluate the cause of groundwater-level declines and to evaluate possible water resource management strategies. Data collection included the following: 1. Water-level measurements were made in 37 wells. Bi-monthly or quarterly measurements were made in 30 wells, and continuous water-level monitoring instruments were installed in 7 wells. The measurements principally were made to capture the seasonal patterns in the groundwater system, and to augment the available long-term record. 2. Groundwater pumping was measured, reported, or estimated from irrigation, municipal and domestic wells. Flowmeters were installed on 74 percent of all high-capacity irrigation wells in the study area. 3. Borehole geophysical data were collected from a known commingling well. These data measured geologic properties and vertical flow through the well. 4. Streamflow measurements were made in Rock, Rowena, and Mosier Creeks. A long-term recording stream-gaging station was reestablished on Mosier Creek to provide a continuous record of streamflow. Streamflow measurements also were made along the creeks periodically to evaluate seasonal patterns of exchange between streams and the groundwater system. Major findings from the study include: 1. Annual average precipitation ranges from 20 to 54 inches across the study area with an average value of about 30 inches. Based on rainfall-runoff modeling, about one-third of this water infiltrates into the aquifer system. 2. Currently, about 3 percent of the water infiltrated into the groundwater system is extracted for municipal, agricultural, and rural residential use. The remainder of the water flows through the aquifer system, discharging into local streams and the Columbia River. About 80 percent of recent pumping supports crop production. The city of Mosier public supply wells account for about 10 percent of total pumping, with the remaining 10 percent being pumped from the private wells of rural residents. 3. Groundwater-flow simulation results indicate that leakage through commingling wells is a significant and likely the dominant cause of water level declines. Leakage patterns can be complex, but most of the leaked water likely flows out the CRBG aquifer system through very permeable sediments into Mosier Creek and its tributary streams in the OWRD administrative area. Model-derived estimates attribute 80-90 percent of the declines to commingling, with pumping accounting for the remaining 10-20 percent. Although decadal trends in precipitation have occurred, associated changes in aquifer recharge are likely not a significant contributor to the current water level declines. 4. As many as 150 wells might be commingling. To evaluate whether or not the local combination of geology and well construction have resulted in aquifer commingling at a particular well, the well needs to be tested by measuring intraborehole flow. During geophysical testing of one known commingling well, the flow rate through the well between aquifers ranged between 70 and 135 gallons per minute (11-22 percent of total annual pumping in the study area). Historically, when aquifer water levels were 150-200 feet higher, this flow rate would have been correspondingly higher. 5. Because aquifer commingling through well boreholes is likely the dominant cause of aquifer declines, flow simulations were conducted to evaluate the benefit of repairing wells in specified locations and the benefit of recharging aquifers using diverted flow from study area creeks. As part of this analysis, maps were generated that show which areas are more vulnerable to commingling. These maps indicate that the value of repairing wells in the area generally coincident with the OWRD administrative area is higher than in areas farther upstream in the watershed. Simulation results also indicate that artificial recharge of the aquifers using diverted creek water will not significantly improve water levels in the aquifer system unless at least some commingling wells are repaired first. Repairs would entail construction of wells in a manner that prevents commingling of multiple aquifers. The value of artificially recharging the aquifers improves as more wells are repaired because the aquifer system more efficiently stores water.

Oregon↗
USGS2001

Hydrogeologic framework and geochemistry of the intermediate aquifer system in parts of Charlotte, De Soto, and Sarasota counties, Florida

The hydrogeologic framework underlying the 600-square-mile study area in Charlotte, De Soto, and Sarasota Counties, Florida, consists of the surficial aquifer system, the intermediate aquifer system, and the Upper Floridan aquifer. The hydrogeologic framework and the geochemical processes controlling ground-water composition were evaluated for the study area. Particular emphasis was given to the analysis of hydrogeologic and geochemical data for the intermediate aquifer system. Flow regimes are not well understood in the intermediate aquifer system; therefore, hydrogeologic and geochemical information were used to evaluate connections between permeable zones within the intermediate aquifer system and between overlying and underlying aquifer systems. Knowledge of these connections will ultimately help to protect ground-water quality in the intermediate aquifer system. The hydrogeology was interpreted from lithologic and geophysical logs, water levels, hydraulic properties, and water quality from six separate well sites. Water-quality samples were collected from wells located along six ground-water flow paths and finished at different depth intervals. The selection of flow paths was based on current potentiometric-surface maps. Ground-water samples were analyzed for major ions; field parameters (temperature, pH, specific conductance, and alkalinity); stable isotopes (deuterium, oxygen-18, and carbon-13); and radioactive isotopes (tritium and carbon-14). The surficial aquifer system is the uppermost aquifer, is unconfined, relatively thin, and consists of unconsolidated sand, shell, and limestone. The intermediate aquifer system underlies the surficial aquifer system and is composed of clastic sediments interbedded with carbonate rocks. The intermediate aquifer system is divided into three permeable zones, the Tamiami/Peace River zone (PZ1), the Upper Arcadia zone (PZ2), and the Lower Arcadia zone (PZ3). The Tamiami/Peace River zone (PZ1) is the uppermost zone and is the thinnest and generally, the least productive zone in the intermediate aquifer system. The Upper Arcadia zone (PZ2) is the middle zone and productivity is generally higher than the overlying permeable zone. The Lower Arcadia zone (PZ3) is the lowermost permeable zone and is the most productive zone in the intermediate aquifer system. The intermediate aquifer system is underlain by the Upper Floridan aquifer, which consists of a thick, stratified sequence of limestone and dolomite. The Upper Floridan aquifer is the most productive aquifer in the study area; however, its use is generally restricted because of poor water quality. Interbedded clays and fine-grained clastics separate the aquifer systems and permeable zones. The hydraulic properties of the three aquifer systems are spatially variable. Estimated trans-missivity and horizontal hydraulic conductivity varies from 752 to 32,900 feet squared per day and from 33 to 1,490 feet per day, respectively, for the surficial aquifer system; from 47 to 5,420 feet squared per day and from 2 to 102 feet per day, respectively, for the Tamiami/Peace River zone (PZ1); from 258 to 24,633 feet squared per day and from 2 to 14 feet per day, respectively, for the Upper Arcadia zone (PZ2); from 766 to 44,900 feet squared per day and from 10 to 201 feet per day, respectively, for the Lower Arcadia zone (PZ3); and from 2,350 to 7,640 feet squared per day and from 10 to 41 feet per day, respectively, for the Upper Floridan aquifer. Confining units separating the aquifer systems have leakance coefficients estimated to range from 2.3 x 10-5 to 5.6 x 10-3 feet per day per foot. Strata composing the confining unit separating the Upper Floridan aquifer from the intermediate aquifer system are substantially more permeable than confining units separating the permeable zones in the intermediate aquifer system or separating the surficial aquifer and intermediate aquifer systems. In Charlotte, Sarasota, and western De Soto Counties, hydraulic head generally increases with depth indicating an upward flow potential. Elsewhere, head decreases with depth indicating a downward flow potential. During September 1998, relatively small head differences occurred between the Upper Floridan aquifer and Lower Arcadia zone (PZ3) in the intermediate aquifer system (up to 5 feet) whereas relatively larger head differences occurred between permeable zones of the intermediate aquifer system and the surficial aquifer system (as much as 8 feet). The hydraulic connection between the surficial aquifer system, the intermediate aquifer system and associated permeable units, and the Upper Floridan aquifer is variable in the study area. Clay beds within the confining units can limit the degree of hydraulic connection between aquifer systems and permeable zones; however, facies changes within the units may result in local hydraulic connection with overlying and underlying aquifers. Generally, better hydraulic connection exists between the Upper Floridan aquifer and the Lower Arcadia zone (PZ3) than exists between the permeable zones of the intermediate aquifer system and the surficial aquifer system. Several important findings about flow patterns in the intermediate aquifer system have been supported by combining geochemical modeling with hydraulic head data. Vertical flow from underlying aquifers is significant in the chemical evolution of water in the intermediate aquifer system. Flow patterns derived only from potentiometric-surface maps may be misleading because flow paths are presumed to be lateral. Recent flow patterns delineated strictly based on potentiometric-surface maps do not represent predevelopment ground-water flow paths. The chemical composition of intermediate aquifer waters most likely reflects predevelopment conditions. Areas where geochemical models indicate large amounts of upward flow may actually be areas where discontinuity of the permeable zone exists, thereby limiting lateral flow. Water in the intermediate aquifer system varies widely in chemical composition, but generally fits into one of two categories. At inland sites, water is a mixed ion or mixed cation-bicarbonate type. Sites closer to the coast have a sodium-chloride or mixed cation-chloride type water. Water within the same permeable zone of the intermediate aquifer system does not have a distinct chemical composition throughout the study area. Water in the surficial aquifer system, which is a calcium bicarbonate type, is more dilute than water from underlying aquifers. The chemical composition of water from the Upper Floridan aquifer is variable in the study area with no dominant cation present. Most water from the surficial aquifer system has isotopically lighter deuterium and oxygen-18 values than water from the intermediate aquifer system or the Upper Floridan aquifer. Water from the surficial aquifer system most likely represents a mixture of meteoric water, with an isotopically light composition, and ground water that has been recharged by water that has undergone evaporation, with an enriched isotopic composition. Water from the intermediate aquifer system and the Upper Floridan aquifer may be the result of recharge that occurred under different climatic conditions than present conditions. Water from the three aquifer systems have isotopically distinct carbon-13 signatures of dissolved inorganic carbon, which is related to the evolution of inorganic carbon. Water from the intermediate aquifer system and Upper Floridan aquifer is probably greater than 10,000 years old. Age dating indicates that water in some parts of these aquifers may be greater than 20,000 years old. Thus, the aquifer systems may have been recharged under different hydraulic conditions than currently observed.

Florida↗
USGS2004

Pocomoke Sound Sedimentary and Ecosystem History

Summary of Results: Pocomoke Sound Sediment and Sediment Processes Transport of sediment from coastal marshes. Analyses of pollen and foraminifera from surface sediments in Pocomoke Sound suggest that neither the upstream forested wetlands nor coastal marshes bordering the sound have contributed appreciably to particulate matter in the 10- to 1000-micron size range that is currently being deposited in the sound. Sediment processes derived from short-lived isotope. Analyses of beryllium-7, cesium-137 and lead-210 and redox sensitive elements from Pocomoke sediments showed that there has been a significant increase in anthropogenic elements since the late 1940's when the Delmarva Peninsula became more accessible from the Baltimore-Washington region. Cesium-137 was found to be a useful tool to determine changes in sedimentation within the system. Three major stages of sedimentation occurred. Before 1950, the system was equilibrium with the agriculture activity in the watershed, whereas urbanization and agricultural activity changes during and immediately preceding World War II resulted in increased sediment flux. Around 1970, the sediment flux diminished and there was an apparent increase in bank erosion sediment to the deeper parts of the system. Rates of sediment deposition. Radiocarbon, lead-210, and pollen dating of sediment cores from Pocomoke Sound indicate relatively continuous deposition of fine-grained sediments in the main Pocomoke channel at > ~7 m water depths. Mean sediment accumulation rates during the past few centuries were relatively high (>1 cm yr -1 ). The ages of coarser-grained sediments (sands) blanketing the shallow (< ~ 7 m water depth) flanks of Pocomoke Sound are not well constrained but were probably deposited discontinuously. Impacts of land-use on benthic biota. The Pocomoke Sound paleoecological record shows that in the 1940-50s and again in the 1970-80s, the sound experienced unprecedented changes in the benthic assemblages of both ostracodes and foraminifera that can be attributed to degradation in water quality. These changes represent perturbations to the natural variability in faunal assemblages, which are normally driven by climatically influenced changes in salinity regimes. Changes in 20th century benthic communities were characterized by the rise to dominance of facultative anaerobic taxa tolerant of hypoxia and detrital-feeding species, reflecting increased influx of organic matter, and perhaps greater turbidity. Results support the hypothesis of Orth et al. (2002) and Orth and Moore (1983) that unprecedented changes to the bay ecosystem affected submerged aquatic vegetation in the Tangiers-Pocomoke region prior to large-scale monitoring began in the 1970s and 80s. Comparison of Pocomoke paleoecological record with those from the mainstem bay indicate that environmental degradation during the 20th century was nearly synchronous bay-wide within the limits of sediment core chronology (10-20 years). Stable isotopic evidence for decadal water quality changes. Stable isotopic records from benthic foraminifera in Pocomoke Sound sediment cores, especially oxygen isotopes, document regional decadal and centennial climate processes which influence salinity and water quality over the past few centuries. These results provide indirect evidence for discharge-driven changes in freshwater and presumably river-borne sediment from the watershed to the sound. They are consistent with studies in the mainstem indicating the important influence of climatic and hydrological processes on water quality. Pollen evidence for high sedimentation and vegetation change during colonial land clearance. Pollen assemblages from sediment cores in Pocomoke Sound document high sedimentation rates (0.7->4.0 cm yr -1 ) at most sites throughout the Sound in post-Colonial time. These results confirm those from other regions of the bay that land-clearance increased the flux of river-borne sediment to certain r

Open-File Report↗
USGS1974

Geologic and hydrologic considerations for various concepts of high-level radioactive waste disposal in conterminous United States

The purpose of this investigation is to evaluate and identify which geohydrologic environments in conterminous United States are best suited for various concepts or methods of underground disposal of high-level radioactive wastes and to establish geologic and hydrologic criteria that are pertinent to high-level waste disposal. The unproven methods of disposal include (1) a very deep drill hole (30,000-50,000 ft or 9,140-15,240 m), (2) a matrix of (an array of multiple) drill holes (1,000-20,000 ft or 305-6,100 m), (3) a mined chamber (1,000-10,000 ft or 305-3,050 m), (4) a cavity with separate manmade structures (1,000-10,000 ft or 305-3,050 m), and (5) an exploded cavity (2,000-20,000 ft or 610-6,100 m) o The geohydrologic investigation is made on the presumption that the concepts or methods of disposal are technically feasible. Field and laboratory experiments in the future may demonstrate whether or not any of the methods are practical and safe. All the conclusions drawn are tentative pending experimental confirmation. The investigation focuses principally on the geohydrologic possibilities of several methods of disposal in rocks other than salt. Disposal in mined chambers in salt is currently under field investigation, and this disposal method has been intensely investigated and evaluated by various workers under the sponsorship of the Atomic Energy Commission. Of the various geohydrologic factors that must be considered in the selection of optimum waste-disposal sites, the most important is hydrologic isolation to assure that the wastes will be safely contained within a small radius of the emplacement zone. To achieve this degree of hydrologic isolation, the host rock for the wastes must have very low permeability and the site must be virtually free of faults. In addition, the locality should be in (1) an area of low seismic risk where the possibility of large earthquakes rupturing the emplacement zone is very low, (2) where the possibility- of flooding by rise is very low, (3) where a possible return of glacial or pluvial climate will not cause potentially hazardous changes in surface- or ground-water regimens, and (4) where danger of exhumation by erosion is nil. The geographic location for an optimum site is one that is far removed from major drainages, lakes, and oceans, where population density is low, and where the topographic relief is gentle in order to avoid steep surface-water drainage gradients that would allow rapid distribution of contaminants in case of accident. The most suitable medium for the unproven deep drill-hole, matrix-holes, and exploded-cavity methods appears to be crystalline rocks, either intrusive igneous or metamorphic because of their potentially low permeabilities and high mechanical strengths. Salt (either in thick beds or stable domes), tuff, and possibly shale appear to be suitable for mined chambers and cavities with separate manmade structures. Salt appears to be suitable because of its very low permeability, high thermal conductivity, and natural plasticity. Tuff and shale appear suitable because of their very low permeabilities and high ion-exchange capacities. Sedimentary rocks other than shale and volcanic rocks, exclusive of tuff, are considered to be generally unsuitable for waste emplacement because of their potentially high permeabilities. Areas that appear to satisfy most geohydrologic requirements for the deep drill hole and the matrix holes include principally (1) the stable continental interior where the sedimentary cover is thin or absent, (2) the shield area of the North-Central States, and (3) the metamorphic belt of Eastern United States--primarily the Piedmont. These areas are possibly suitable also for the exploded cavity and the mined chamber because the possibility of finding rock with very- permeability at depths from 1,000? feet (305? m) to 20,000 feet (6,100 m) appears to be high. The Basin and Range province of Western United States, particula

Open-File Report↗
USGS2009

Assessment of Ground-Water Resources in the Seacoast Region of New Hampshire

Numerical ground-water-flow models were developed for a 160-square-mile area of coastal New Hampshire to provide insight into the recharge, discharge, and availability of ground water. Population growth and increasing water use prompted concern for the sustainability of the region's ground-water resources. Previously, the regional hydraulic characteristics of the fractured bedrock aquifer in the Seacoast region of New Hampshire were not well known. In the current study, the ground-water-flow system was assessed by using two different models developed and calibrated under steady-state seasonal low-flow and transient monthly conditions to ground-water heads and base-flow discharges. The models were, (1) a steady-state model representing current (2003-04) seasonal low-flow conditions used to simulate current and future projected water use during low-flow conditions; and (2) a transient model representing current average and estimated future monthly conditions over a 2-year period used to simulate current and future projected climate-change conditions. The analysis by the ground-water-flow models indicates that the Seacoast aquifer system is a transient flow system with seasonal variations in ground-water flow. A pseudosteady- state condition exists in the fall when the steady-state model was calibrated. The average annual recharge during the period analyzed, 2000-04, was approximately 51 percent of the annual precipitation. The average net monthly recharge rate between 2003 and 2004 varied from 5.5 inches per month in March, to zero in July, and to about 0.3 inches per month in August and September. Recharge normally increases to about 2 inches per month in late fall and early winter (November through December) and declines to about 1.5 inches per month in late winter (January and February). About 50 percent of the annual recharge coincides with snowmelt in the spring (March and April), and 20 percent occurs in the late fall and early winter (November through February). Net recharge, calculated as infiltration of precipitation minus evapotranspiration, can be negative during summer months (particularly July). Regional bulk hydraulic conductivities of the bedrock aquifer were estimated to be about 0.1 to 1.0 feet per day. Estimated hydraulic conductivities in model areas representing the Rye Complex and the Kittery Formation were higher (0.5 to 1 foot per day) than in areas representing the Eliot Formation, the Exeter Diorite, and the Newburyport Complex, which have estimated hydraulic conductivities of 0.1 to 0.2 foot per day. A northeast-southwest regional anisotropy of about 5:1 was estimated in some areas of the model; this pattern is parallel to the regional structural trend and predominant fracture orientation. In areas of the model with more observation data, the upper and lower 95-percent confidence intervals for the estimated bedrock hydraulic conductivity were about half an order of magnitude above and below the parameter, respectively, and the estimated confidence intervals for estimated specific storage were within an order of magnitude of the parameter. In areas of the model with few data points, or few stresses, confidence intervals were several orders of magnitude. Estimated model parameters and their confidence intervals are a function of the conceptual model design, observation data, and the weights placed on the data. The amount of recharge that enters the bedrock aquifer at a specific point depends on (1) the location of the point in the flow field; (2) the hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock (or the connectivity of fractures); and (3) the stresses within the bedrock aquifer. In addition, ground water stored in unconsolidated overburden sediments, including till and other fine-grained sediments, may constitute a large percentage of the water available from storage to the bedrock aquifer. Recharge into the bedrock aquifer at a point can range from zero to nearly all the recharge at the surface dependin

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2020

One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model: A MODFLOW based conjunctive-use simulation software

The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Modular Ground-Water Flow Model (MODFLOW-2005) is a computer program that simulates groundwater flow by using finite differences. The MODFLOW-2005 framework uses a modular design that allows for the easy development and incorporation of new features called processes and packages that work with or modify inputs to the groundwater-flow equation. A process solves a flow equation or set of equations. For example, the central part of MODFLOW is the groundwater-flow process that solves the groundwater-flow equation; the surface-water routing process is an additional process that solves the surface-water flow equation. Packages are code related to the groundwater-flow process. For example, the subsidence package modifies the groundwater-flow process by including aquifer compaction effects on flow. With the development of new packages and processes, the MODFLOW-2005 base framework diverged into multiple independent versions designed for specific simulation needs. This divergence limited each independent MODFLOW release to its specific purpose, so that there was no longer a single, comprehensive, general-purpose hydraulic-simulation framework. The MODFLOW One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM, also informally known as OneWater) is an integrated hydrologic flow model that combines multiple MODFLOW-2005 variants in one cohesive simulation software; changes were made to enable multiple capabilities in one code. This fusion of the MODFLOW-2005 versions resulted in a simulation software that can be used to address and analyze a wide class of conjunctive-use, water-management, water-food-security, and climate-crop-water scenarios. As a second core version of MODFLOW-2005, MF-OWHM maintains backward compatibility with existing MODFLOW-2005 versions, with features that include the following: Process-based simulation. Saturated groundwater flow (three-dimensional). Surface-water flow (one- and two-dimensional). Stream and river flow. Lake and reservoir storage. Landscape simulation and irrigated agriculture. Land-use and crop simulation. Root uptake of groundwater. Actual evapotranspiration. Estimated irrigation demand. Reservoir operations. Aquifer compaction and subsidence by vertical model-grid deformation. Seawater intrusion by a sharp-interface assumption. Karst-aquifer and fractured-bedrock flow. Turbulent and laminar-pipe network flow. Unsaturated groundwater flow (one-dimensional). Internal linkages among the processes that couple hydraulic head, flow, and deformation. Redesigned code for faster simulation, increased user-input options, easier model updates, and more robust error reporting than in previous models. MF-OWHM is a MODFLOW-2005 based integrated hydrologic model that can simulate and analyze varying environmental conditions to allow for the evaluation of management options from many components of human and natural water movement through a physically based, supply and demand framework. The term “integrated,” in the context of this report, refers to the tight coupling of groundwater flow, surface-water flow, landscape processes, aquifer compaction and subsidence, reservoir operations, and conduit (karst) flow. Another benefit of this integrated hydrologic model is that models developed to run by MODFLOW-2005, MODFLOW-NWT, MODFLOW-CFP, or MODFLOW-FMP can also be simulated with MF-OWHM. At the time of this report’s publication, MF-OWHM version 2 (MF-OWHM2) does not include a direct internal simulation of snowmelt, advanced mountainous watershed rainfall-runoff simulation, detailed shallow soil-moisture accounting, or atmospheric moisture content. Atmospheric moisture may be accounted for indirectly by, optionally, specifying a pan-evaporation rate, reference evapotranspiration, and precipitation. These features are not included to ensure that simulation runtime remains short enough to enable the use of automated methods of calibrating model parameters to field observations, which typically require many simulation model runs. The MF-OWHM approach is to include as much detail as possible to simulate hydrological processes, providing the simulation runtimes remain reasonable enough to allow for robust parameter estimation and model calibration. To represent both natural and human-influenced flow, MF-OWHM integrates physically based flow processes derived from MODFLOW-2005 in a supply and demand framework. From this integration, the physically based movement of groundwater, surface water, imported water, and precipitation serve as supply to meet consumptive demands associated with irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture, natural vegetation, and urban water uses. Water consumption is determined by balancing the available water supply with water demand, leading to the concept of a demand-driven, supply-constrained simulation. The MF-OWHM Supply-and-Demand Framework is especially useful for the analysis of agricultural water use, where there are often few data available to describe changes in land-use through time, such as crop type and distribution, and the associated changes in groundwater pumpage. This framework attempts to satisfy each land-use water demand with available water supplies—that is, groundwater uptake, precipitation, and irrigation. An option provided in MF-OWHM2 is to automatically increase groundwater pumping for irrigation, which often is unknown, by the calculated residual between demand and the other available sources of supply. From large- to small-scale applications, the physically based supply and demand framework provides key capabilities for simulating and analyzing historical, current, and future conjunctive-use of surface water and groundwater. To achieve the physically based supply and demand framework, the MODFLOW-2005 standard of no inter-package and -process communication was relaxed for MF-OWHM2. Traditional MODFLOW simulation models required that all packages and processes interact through the groundwater-flow equation or by removing the water flow from the simulation domain. For example, the MODFLOW-2005 representation of a groundwater well extracts water from the groundwater-flow equation (by subtraction) and removes it from the simulation domain. This feature is available in the MF-OWHM framework, but options have been added to allow the specification of a use or destination of pumped groundwater within the model domain, for example, it can be used for irrigation, managed aquifer recharge, or return-flow to streams.

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS2016

Assessment of groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system From Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey began a multiyear regional assessment of groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain (NACP) aquifer system in 2010 as part of its ongoing regional assessments of groundwater availability of the principal aquifers of the Nation. The goals of this national assessment are to document effects of human activities on water levels and groundwater storage, explore climate variability effects on the regional water budget, and provide consistent and integrated information that is useful to those who use and manage the groundwater resource. As part of this nationwide assessment, the USGS evaluated available groundwater resources within the NACP aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to northeastern North Carolina. The northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province depends heavily on groundwater to meet agricultural, industrial, and municipal needs. The groundwater assessment of the NACP aquifer system included an evaluation of how water use has changed over time; this evaluation primarily used groundwater budgets and development of a numerical modeling tool to assess system responses to stresses from future human uses and climate trends. This assessment focused on multiple spatial and temporal scales to examine changes in groundwater pumping, storage, and water levels. The regional scale provides a broad view of the sources and demands on the system with time. The sub-regional scale provides an evaluation of the differing response of the aquifer system across geographic areas allowing for closer examination of the interaction between different aquifers and confining units and the changes in these interactions under pumping and recharge conditions in 2013 and hydrologic stresses as much as 45 years in the future. By focusing on multiple scales, water-resource managers may utilize this study to understand system response to changes as they affect the system as a whole. The NACP aquifer system extends from Long Island to northeastern North Carolina, and includes aquifers primarily within New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina. The seaward-dipping sedimentary wedge that underlies the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province forms a complex groundwater system. Although the NACP aquifer system is recognized by the U.S. Geological Survey as one of the smallest of the 66 principal aquifer systems in the Nation, it ranks 13th overall in terms of total groundwater withdrawals and is 7th in population served. Despite abundant precipitation [about 45 inches per year (in/yr)], the supply of fresh surface water in this region is limited because many of the surface waters in this area are brackish estuaries, contributing to why many communities in the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province rely heavily on groundwater to meet their water needs. Increases in population and changes in land use during the past 100 years have resulted in diverse increased demands for freshwater throughout the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province with groundwater serving as a vital source of drinking water for the nearly 20 million people who live in the region. Total groundwater withdrawal in 2013 was estimated to be about 1,300 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) and accounts for about 40 percent of the drinking water supply with the densely populated areas tending to have the highest rates of withdrawals and, therefore, being most susceptible to effects from these withdrawals over time. Water levels in many of the confined aquifers are decreasing by as much as 2 feet per year (ft/yr) in response to extensive development and subsequent increased withdrawals throughout the region. Total water-level decreases (drawdowns) are more than 100 feet (ft) in some aquifers from their predevelopment (before 1900) levels. These drawdowns extend across state lines and under the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays, creating the potential for interstate aquifer management issues. Regional water-resources managers in the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province face challenges beyond competing local domestic, industrial, agricultural, and environmental demands for water. Large changes in regional water use have made the State-level management of aquifer resources more difficult because of hydrologic effects that extend beyond State boundaries. The northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province is underlain by a wedge of unconsolidated to partially consolidated sediments that are typically thousands of feet thick along the coastline with a maximum thickness of about 10,000 ft near the edge of the continental shelf. The NACP aquifer system consists of nine confined aquifers and nine confining units capped by an unconfined surficial aquifer that is bounded laterally from the west by the contact between Coastal Plain sediments and the upland Piedmont bedrock. This aquifer system extends to the east to the limit of the Continental Shelf, however, the boundary between fresh and saline groundwater is considered to be much closer to the shoreline and varies vertically by aquifer. Precipitation over the region for average conditions from 2005 to 2009 is about 61,800 Mgal/d, but about 70 percent of it is lost to evapotranspiration resulting in an inflow of about 19,600 Mgal/d entering the groundwater system as aquifer recharge. Most of this recharge enters the aquifer system and flows through the shallow unconfined aquifer and either discharges to streams or directly to coastal waters without reaching the deep, confined aquifer system. In addition to recharge from precipitation, other sources of water include the return of wastewater from domestic septic systems of about 240 Mgal/d, about 60 Mgal/d of water released from storage in the confined system, and about 30 Mgal/d of lateral inflow at the boundary between freshwater and saltwater in response to pumping for conditions in 2013. The outflow needed to balance the inflows was subdivided between streamflow, discharge to tidal portions of streams, and coastal discharge. The hydrologic budget developed for current [2013] conditions determined that 93 percent of the total outflow was to surface waters with about 70 percent divided evenly between streamflow and shallow coastal discharge and 23 percent as discharge to tidal waters. The remaining 7 percent of the total outflow components include withdrawals from both the surficial and confined aquifers of the groundwater system. The groundwater availability assessment of the NACP aquifer system highlights the importance of analyses at both the regional and local scales to understand how changes in land use, water use, and climate have affected groundwater resources and how these resources may change in the future. The investigation included assessments of the regional changes in water levels and budgets across State lines, the importance of considering storage change in the confining units, the response of the aquifer system to a continuation of current [2013] hydrologic stresses into the future, and the potential effects of climate change and sea-level rise on the aquifer system. The Potomac aquifer group includes two of the most widely used aquifers in the NACP aquifer system, the Potomac-Patapsco and Potomac-Patuxent regional aquifers, providing about 24 percent of the total groundwater used in the region. Withdrawals from large pumping centers in this deep, confined aquifer group have resulted in substantial decreases in water-levels across state lines, particularly between southern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina as well as between southern New Jersey and northern Delaware where water levels in the Potomac-Patapsco aquifer have decreased by as much as 200 ft and 50 ft, respectively from predevelopment to current [2013] conditions. This response in water levels also is reflected in changes in water budgets where, for example, about 20 percent of the total response to pumping in Virginia is met by inducing flow from adjacent States. Understanding and quantifying these hydrologic effects that extend beyond State boundaries is critical for the State- and regional-level management of aquifer resources. The cumulative storage loss from the intervening confining units throughout the entire NACP aquifer system was about 35 percent of the total storage loss from predevelopment to current [2013] conditions. In geographic areas such as Delmarva Peninsula, Maryland, and New Jersey, the water released from storage in the confining units makes up the majority of the total storage release from the groundwater system and is becoming proportionally more important over time as the surficial aquifer approaches equilibrium with respect to pumping and recharge stresses as of 2013. Storage loss from the confining units is of particular concern because, unlike in the sands that comprise the confined aquifers, water removed from the clayey confining unit sediments cannot be replenished as these units gradually compress. This non-recoverable storage loss, if great enough, can result in land subsidence where these units are thick and the release from storage is relatively large and contributes to increased concerns for sea-level rise in areas such as the lower portion of the Chesapeake Bay. Groundwater usage increased dramatically in the NACP aquifer system during post-World War II era from the mid-1940s to early the 1980s, with withdrawals increasing from about 400 Mgal/d to more than 1,300 Mgal/d. Although groundwater withdrawals have been relatively constant since the early 1980s, about half of the total groundwater withdrawn from the NACP aquifer system since 1900 was withdrawn in the past 30 years. An analysis of the response of the groundwater system to a continuation of the current [2013] pumping for an additional 30 years into the future shows that the flow system continues to adjust in terms of changes in water budget components, water levels, and the boundary between freshwater and saltwater as it approaches equilibrium. The largest change in water budget components is the reduction in the amount of water released from storage. Across the entire NACP aquifer system, the reduction of storage release from 7 to 4 percent of the total water budget change is accounted for by reductions in groundwater discharge to streams and coastal waters. Locally, a similar response is calculated for each of the geographic areas except for Virginia where the amount of water released from storage accounts for about 25 percent of the total change in water budget. This finding suggests that the groundwater flow system in Virginia is not approaching equilibrium under the current [2013] stresses and, therefore, water levels will continue to decrease even if the pumping remains constant. An analysis of the change in water levels in the Potomac-Patapsco aquifer as pumping is continued 30 years into the future reveals that the largest decreases in water levels throughout the NACP aquifer system will occur in the southern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina parts of the study area. It is these areas that also see the greatest potential for increased lateral movement of saline groundwater in the deep, confined portion of the groundwater flow system in response to a continuation of the current [2013] pumping rates. The potential effects of long-term climate change and variability on the hydrologic system and availability of water resources in the NACP aquifer system continue to be of serious societal concern. These concerns include the effects of changes in aquifer recharge and in sea-level rise on the groundwater flow system. An assessment of the potential effects of a prolonged drought during current [2013] pumping conditions indicated that the reductions in recharge associated with droughts, including additional irrigation withdrawals required to meet increased crop water demand, have the greatest effects on water levels and streamflows in the surficial aquifer, and changes in water levels in the confined aquifers primarily resulted from the increased withdrawals associated with increased irrigation pumping; this response was most apparent in the Delmarva Peninsula. These results suggest that water levels may not be susceptible to the effects of droughts in the confined aquifers of the NACP aquifer system not used for irrigation, unlike in the unconfined surficial aquifer. A second analysis also was conducted to assess the effects of sea-level rise on the groundwater system throughout the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province because recent analyses of the relative rates of sea-level rise along the Atlantic coast indicate that the Mid-Atlantic region represents a hot spot with anomalously higher rates of sea-level rise than observed elsewhere in the United States. Groundwater levels rose from 0 to 3 ft in response to a 3-ft simulated change in sea-level position, with the largest response occurring along the shoreline and away from non-tidal streams. About 37 percent (or 10,000 square miles) of the area of the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province may experience about a 0.5-ft or more increase in water levels with the 3-ft increase in sea-level position, whereas about 18 percent (almost 5,000 square miles) of land of the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province may experience a 2-ft or more increase in water levels with the 3-ft increase in sea-level position. These increases in the water table are of particular concern in low-lying areas where the unsaturated (vadose) zone is already thin, thus creating concerns for groundwater inundation of subsurface infrastructure, such as basements, septic systems, and subway systems. This increase in the water table also will likely alter the distribution of groundwater discharge to surface-water bodies thus increasing groundwater flow to streams that would have otherwise discharged directly to coastal waters. Throughout the NACP aquifer system, this redistribution of groundwater discharge results in an additional 2 percent of base flow in streams. Although the increases in groundwater discharge to streams (and corresponding decreases in discharge to coastal waters) calculated for the entire NACP aquifer system and its geographic areas represent only a small increase compared with current [2013] conditions, this redistribution of groundwater discharge from the coast to streams locally can alter the delivery of freshwater input to coastal receiving waters and have ecohydrological implications on the sensitive ecosystems which rely on a balance of groundwater discharge and surface-water flow.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Ca↗
USGS2017

Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrologic and water-quality conditions, and estimation of water budgets through 2013, Chester County, Pennsylvania

An evaluation of trends in hydrologic and water quality conditions and estimation of water budgets through 2013 was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority. Long-term hydrologic, meteorologic, and biologic data collected in Chester County, Pennsylvania, which included streamflow, groundwater levels, surface-water quality, biotic integrity, precipitation, and air temperature were analyzed to determine possible trends or changes in hydrologic conditions. Statistically significant trends were determined by applying the Kendall rank correlation test; the magnitudes of the trends were determined using the Sen slope estimator. Water budgets for eight selected watersheds were updated and a new water budget was developed for the Marsh Creek watershed. An average water budget for Chester County was developed using the eight selected watersheds and the new Marsh Creek water budget. Annual and monthly mean streamflow, base flow, and runoff were analyzed for trends at 10 streamgages. The periods of record at the 10 streamgages ranged from 1961‒2013 to 1988‒2013. The only statistically significant trend for annual mean streamflow was for West Branch Brandywine Creek near Honey Brook, Pa. (01480300) where annual mean streamflow increased 1.6 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) per decade. The greatest increase in monthly mean streamflow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 47 ft 3 /s per decade. No statistically significant trends in annual mean base flow or runoff were determined for the 10 streamgages. The greatest increase in monthly mean base flow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 26 ft 3 /s per decade. The magnitude of peaks greater than a base streamflow was analyzed for trends for 12 streamgages. The period of record at the 12 stream gages ranged from 1912‒2012 to 2004–11. Fifty percent of the streamgages showed a small statistically significant increase in peaks greater than the base streamflow. The greatest increase was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) during 1962‒2012; the increase was 1.8 ft 3 /s per decade. There were no statistically significant trends in the number of floods equal to or greater than the 2-year recurrence interval flood flow. Twenty‒one monitoring wells were evaluated for statistically significant trends in annual mean water level, minimum annual water level, maximum annual water level, and annual range in water-level fluctuations. For four wells, a small statistically significant increase in annual mean water level was determined that ranged from 0.16 to 0.7 feet per decade. There was poor or no correlation between annual mean groundwater levels and annual mean streamflow and base flow. No correlation was determined between annual mean groundwater level and annual precipitation. Despite rapid population growth and land-use change since 1950, there appears to have been little or no detrimental effects on groundwater levels in 21 monitoring wells. Long-term precipitation and temperature data were available from the West Chester (1893‒2013) and Phoenixville, Pa. (1915‒2013) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather stations. No statistically significant trends in annual mean precipitation or annual mean temperature were determined for either station. Both weather stations had a significant decrease in the number of days per year with precipitation greater than or equal to 0.1 inch. Annual mean minimum and maximum temperatures from the NOAA Southeastern Piedmont Climate Division increased 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (F) per decade between 1896 and 2014. The number of days with a maximum temperature equal to or greater than 90 degrees F increased at West Chester and decreased at Phoenixville. No statistically significant trend was determined for annual snowfall amounts. Data from 1974 to 2013 for three stream water-quality monitors in the Brandywine Creek watershed were evaluated. The monitors are on the West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617), East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870), and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). Statistically significant upward trends were determined for annual mean specific conductance at all three stations, indicating the total dissolved solids load has been increasing. If the current trend continues, the annual mean specific conductance could almost double from 1974 to 2050. The increase in specific conductance likely is due to increases in chloride concentrations, which have been increasing steadily over time at all three stations. No correlation was found between monthly mean specific conductance and monthly mean streamflow or base flow. Statistically significant upward trends in pH were determined for all three stations. Statistically significant upward trends in stream temperature were determined for East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870) and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). The stream water-quality data indicate substantial increases in the minimum daily dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Brandywine Creek over time. The Chester County Index of Biotic Integrity (CC-IBI) determined for 1998‒2013 was evaluated for the five biological sampling sites collocated with streamgages. CC-IBI scores are based on a 0‒100 scale with higher scores indicating better stream quality. Statistically significant upward trends in the CC-IBI were determined for West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617) and East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870). No correlation was found between the CC-IBI and streamflow, precipitation, or stream specific conductance, pH, temperature, or dissolved oxygen concentration. A Chester County average water budget was developed using the nine estimated watershed water budgets. Average precipitation was 48.4 inches, and average streamflow was 21.4 inches. Average runoff and base flow were 8.3 and 13.1 inches, respectively, and average evapotranspiration and estimation of errors was 27.2 inches."

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2015

Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment

The Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment was conducted in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The overall goals of the BLM Rapid Ecoregional Assessments (REAs) are to identify important ecosystems and wildlife habitats at broad spatial scales; identify where these resources are at risk from Change Agents, including development, wildfire, invasive species, disease and climate change; quantify cumulative effects of anthropogenic stressors; and assess current levels of risk to ecological resources across a range of spatial scales and jurisdictional boundaries by assessing all lands within an ecoregion. There are several components of the REAs. Management Questions, developed by the BLM and stakeholders for the ecoregion, identify the regionally significant information needed for addressing land-management responsibilities. Conservation Elements represent regionally significant species and ecological communities that are of management concern. Change Agents that currently affect or are likely to affect the condition of species and communities in the future are identified and assessed. REAs also identify areas that have high conservation potential that are referred to as &ldquo;large intact areas.&rdquo; At the ecoregion level, the ecological value of large intact areas is based on the assumption that because these areas have not been greatly altered by human activities (such as development), they are more likely to contain a variety of plant and animal communities and to be resilient and resistant to changes resulting from natural disturbances such as fire, insect outbreaks, and disease. The Wyoming Basin Ecoregion encompasses approximately 133,656 square kilometers (51,604.87 square miles), including portions of Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, and Montana. The Wyoming Basin has some of the highest quality wildlife habitats remaining in the Intermountain West. The wide variety of habitats includes intermountain basins dominated by sagebrush shrublands interspersed with deciduous and conifer woodlands and montane or subalpine forests at higher elevations. The Wyoming Basin also supports ranching and agricultural operations that are important to the region&rsquo;s economy and vital to conserving habitats for wildlife. The region also contains abundant energy resources, including large natural gas reserves and areas of high wind-energy potential. Combined with increased residential and industrial development, fast-paced energy development is resulting in notable land-use changes, including habitat loss and fragmentation. In the Wyoming Basin REA, we evaluated the following seven communities as Conservation Elements: streams and rivers, wetlands, riparian forests and shrublands, sagebrush steppe, desert shrublands, foothill shrublands and woodlands, and mountain forests and alpine zones. We evaluated a total of 14 species and species assemblages as Conservation Elements: aspen forests and woodlands, five-needle pine forests and woodlands, juniper woodlands, cutthroat trout, three-species fish assemblage, northern leatherside chub, sauger, spadefoot assemblage, greater sage-grouse, golden eagle, ferruginous hawk, sagebrush-obligate birds, pygmy rabbit, and mule deer. We evaluated Management Questions (Core and Integrated) for each species and community for the Wyoming Basin REA. Core Management Questions address primary management issues, including (1) where is the Conservation Element, and what are its key ecological attributes (characteristics of species and communities that may affect their long-term persistence or viability); (2) what and where are the Change Agents; and (3) how do the Change Agents affect the key ecological attributes? Integrated Management Questions synthesize the Core Management Questions as follows: (1) where are the areas with high landscape-level ecological values; (2) where are the areas with high landscape-level risks; and (3) where are the potential areas for conservation, restoration, and development? The associated maps and key findings for each Management Question are summarized for each Conservation Element in individual chapters. Additional chapters on landscape intactness and an REA synthesis are included.

Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2018

Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins Geohydrology and optimal water resources management—Developed using density dependent solute transport and optimization models

Groundwater has been a part of the city of Santa Barbara’s water-supply portfolio since the 1800s; however, since the 1960s, the majority of the city’s water has come from local surface water, and the remainder has come from groundwater, State Water Project, recycled water, increased water conservation, and as needed, seawater desalination. Although groundwater from the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins only accounts for a small percentage of the long-term supply, it is an important source of supplemental water during times of surface-water shortages. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, production wells extracted additional groundwater to compensate for drought related water-delivery shortfalls from other sources; in response, water levels declined substantially in the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins (below sea level in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin). In coastal basins that have groundwater extraction near shore, seawater intrusion is often a problem. Seawater intrusion in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin is thought to be more limited than in other coastal basins because of an offshore fault that acts as a partial barrier to groundwater flow. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, seawater intrusion was observed in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin, as indicated by increased chloride concentrations at several monitoring wells that ranged from 200 ft to 1,300 ft from the ocean and as close as 2,900 ft to the nearest pumping well. This demonstrated that seawater can intrude into the Santa Barbara groundwater basin when groundwater levels fall below sea level near the coast. The city of Santa Barbara is interested in developing a better understanding of the sustainability of its groundwater supplies. In 2014, California adopted historic legislation to manage its groundwater: the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). The SGMA requires the development and implementation of “Groundwater Sustainability Plans” in 127 priority groundwater basins; although Santa Barbara was not a designated priority basin, the city is taking steps to achieve sustainability. Sustainability was defined in the SGMA in terms of avoiding undesirable results: significant and unreasonable groundwater-level declines, reduction in groundwater storage, seawater intrusion, water-quality degradation, land subsidence, and surface-water depletion. In this project, a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the city of Santa Barbara, sustainable yield is defined as the volume of groundwater that can be pumped from storage without causing water-level drawdowns and the associated increases in seawater intrusion (as indicated by increases in measured chloride concentrations) at selected wells. In order to estimate the sustainability of Santa Barbara’s groundwater basins, a three-dimensional density-dependent groundwater-flow and solute-transport model (the Santa Barbara Flow and Transport Model, or SBFTM) was developed on the basis of an existing groundwater-flow model. To simulate seawater intrusion to the Santa Barbara Basin under various management strategies, the SBFTM uses the USGS code SEAWAT to simulate salinity transport and variable-density flow. The completed SBFTM was coupled with a management optimization tool, in this case a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, to determine optimal pumping strategies that maximize the sustainable yield and at the same time satisfy user-defined drawdown and chloride-concentration constraints. As part of this study, a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model was developed to quantify the extent and hydrogeologic characteristics of the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins and to help define the discretization and hydraulic properties used in the SBFTM. The development of the hydrogeologic framework model required the collection and reconciliation of geologic and geophysical data from existing maps, reports, and databases, along with geologic and hydrologic data from recently drilled wells. These data were integrated into a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model that defines the stratigraphy and geometry of the aquifer zones and the major geologic structures in the basin. The hydrogeologic framework model also quantifies the variation in sediment grain size within each aquifer zone as the percentage of coarse-grained sediment. Previous studies indicated that there are two principal water-producing zones in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin, the upper and lower producing zones; an additional thin, productive zone was identified as part of this study. This “middle producing zone” is not as areally extensive as the upper and lower producing zones and only exists in the coastal part of Storage Unit I. These producing zones are bounded at depth by less productive shallow, middle, and deep zones. Two versions of the SBFTM were constructed: an initial-condition model and a modern transient model. The initial-condition model is a long-term transient model that simulates flow and solute-transport conditions during a period with limited anthropogenic influences preceeding the modern transient model. The simulation-transient model simulates flow and transport conditions from 1929 through 2013; however, because of data availability, the focus of the model calibration was 1972–2013. The SBFTM was calibrated to measured groundwater levels and drawdown, as well as measured chloride concentrations and change in concentrations, using a combination of automated and trial-and-error parameter-estimation techniques. A sensitivity analysis indicated that, in general, the SBFTM was most sensitive to recharge- and pumping-distribution parameters, specifically those controlling the amount of small-catchment recharge and the distribution of water extraction by hydrogeologic layer for production wells. The model was also sensitive to parameters controlling stream-recharge rates, horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, and porosity. From 1929 to 1971, most of the water entering the area represented by the SBFTM was from creek and small-catchment recharge, and the majority of water leaving the SBFTM area was from pumping, discharge to creeks, and drains. In addition, about 37 percent of the total pumpage came from a net reduction in groundwater storage. From 1972 to 2013, the amount of water entering and leaving the SBFTM was fairly similar as that from 1929 to 1971, except the reduction in pumpage added about 17,000 acre-ft of water to storage. During this later period, there were also times of storage loss. For example, during July 1990, a month when approximately 705 acre-ft of groundwater was pumped in the study area, the pumpage was much greater than all sources of recharge combined, and about 382 acre-ft of water was removed from groundwater storage. Simulated hydraulic heads replicated the observed data to an acceptable matching of the measured water-level, flow direction, and vertical gradients. Simulated hydrographs for selected wells were in good agreement with the measured data, with an average residual of -2.7 ft and a standard deviation of 14.5 ft, indicating that the simulated heads, on average, underestimated the observed water levels. An examination of the model fit indicated that most of the discrepancies were lower simulated heads at wells proximal to production well sites. The simulated chloride concentrations reasonably matched the rising limbs of the measured breakthrough curves in terms of timing and magnitude; however, the simulation overestimated the chloride concentrations on the falling limbs. The overestimation of low chloride concentrations was attributed to the model overestimating the advance of the chloride front during periods of heavy pumping and underestimating the retreat of the chloride front during periods of low pumping. These simulation errors would result in a conservative response by local water managers to seawater intrusion. The SBFTM was used to develop a collection of predictive simulations optimized to produce pumping schedules that maximize yield, subject to a set of constraints and competing objectives. The simulations were grouped as scenarios that differed in their time horizon, initial conditions for groundwater levels and chloride concentrations, as well as precipitation, which was incorporated into the model through simulated recharge. Overall, five scenarios were developed in a multi-objective framework to obtain optimal pumping rates for all of the wells managed by the city, while minimizing excessive drawdown and seawater intrusion. For the current study, complexities in the simulation model and the optimization formulation required additional considerations. Incorporating the solute-transport equations to simulate chloride transport added a highly nonlinear process that is solved iteratively in each time step of the groundwater-flow model. These nonlinearities, coupled with the highly refined grid in the current model, creates challenges for many traditional optimization methods. Therefore, an optimization method was needed that could address nonlinear relationships as well as a very large problem size. Lastly, the optimization problem was reformulated to include multiple objectives without requiring convergence to a single solution. This approach, guided by the city’s objectives, allowed the maximum extraction of information from the complex simulation. Borg, a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, was chosen as the optimization algorithm for this study for several reasons: (1) it is very computationally efficient; (2) it can run in parallel; (3) it requires little user input; and (4) it can solve for multiple competing objectives. The first three points allow the algorithm to proceed toward the optimal solutions at the fastest possible rate. The fourth point is advantageous for large, complex optimization problems because it is difficult to formulate the optimization problem in a way that produces only one optimal solution. The problem formulation consisted of four competing objectives and a constraint set in accordance with the main concerns of the city. The objectives were maximizing total pumpage, minimizing seawater intrusion, minimizing total drawdown in production wells, and minimizing the maximum drawdown. The constraints were pump capacity, meeting drinking-water standards for chloride, maintaining a specified minimum flowrate to a groundwater treatment plant, and maintaining minimum water levels in pumping wells. The decision variables either were quarterly pumpage by well or total pumpage by basin. Five optimization scenarios were developed that allow the decision makers to evaluate a range of optimal solutions for a variety of water levels and chloride concentrations as well as potential future climatic conditions. Three scenarios (1, 2, and 5) were multi-objective optimization formulations that allowed for variations in management preferences and climatic conditions. The other two scenarios (3 and 4) were designed to examine the optimization results to answer specific questions. Scenario 1 described the best-case sustainable yield assuming a “full” basin (that is, high initial water levels) and typical climate conditions for 10 years. Scenario 2 also started with a “full” basin; however, this was followed by a 10-year drought. Scenario 3 determined if an “empty” basin (that is, low initial water levels) would recover to full conditions (1998 conditions) given climate assumptions and optimal pumping schedules from scenarios 1 and 2. Scenario 4 was designed to produce decision rules that can be used by water managers to help choose an optimal pumping schedule based on measured water-level or chloride data. Scenario 5 identified future pumping schedules based on short-term climate variations during a 2-year management horizon. The results from scenarios 1 and 2 described the differences in maximum pumpage in the basin under typical and dry long-term climate projections, respectively. The scenario 1 results indicated the maximum 10-year pumpage of the basin was about 31,300 acre-ft under typical conditions and controlling simulated seawater intrusion and drawdowns. For scenario 2, less recharge over the 10-year dry climate produced a maximum pumpage estimate of 30,000 acre-ft to control seawater intrusion and drawdowns. The larger pumpage for scenario 1 resulted in more seawater intrusion, but less total drawdown, compared to that of scenario 2. Results for scenarios 3 and 4 showed the basin’s response to management actions combined with climate projections. Both scenarios used the optimal pumping schedules and the 10-year climates from scenarios 1 and 2. The scenario 3 results showed that under minimal pumping, the basin did not fully recover to 1998 water levels within 10 years under either climate scenario. The relatively larger recharge from the typical climate resulted in less drawdown at coastal monitoring wells after the 10-year recovery period than that from the dry climate. The location of the seawater intrusion front was not appreciably different between the scenarios, however. Scenario 4 used the optimal results from scenarios 1 and 2 to produce decision-rule curves that illustrated the pumpage for each basin, given measured levels of chloride concentration or drawdown. This allowed the use of additional measurements at monitoring wells to assess future management decisions on the basis of the sensitivity of observations of drawdown and seawater intrusion to various pumping rates. Scenario 5 allowed managers to investigate the effects of short-term climate variations on optimal pumping schedules. Three specific 2-year simulations were optimized: typical-to-dry (scenario 5A), dry-to-typical (scenario 5B), and dry-to-dry (scenario 5C). The most noteable result from scenario 5 was the overall reduction in optimal pumpage for most schedules in scenario 5C, when the climate is simulated as dry-to-dry. There are also many optimal pumping schedules that produced an overall increase in waterlevels over the two-year simulation period, regardless of climatic condition. Similar to scenario 2, the scenario 5C results represents conservative yield estimates under a minimal-precipitation climatic condition.

California↗