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At least 451 records · Page 25Linked to original sources

USGS2021

Climate-mediated changes to linked terrestrial and marine ecosystems across the northeast Pacific coastal temperate rainforest margin

Coastal margins are important areas of materials flux that link terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Consequently, climate-mediated changes to coastal terrestrial ecosystems and hydrologic regimes have high potential to influence nearshore ocean chemistry and food web dynamics. Research from tightly coupled, high-flux coastal ecosystems can advance understanding of terrestrial–marine links and climate sensitivities more generally. In the present article, we use the northeast Pacific coastal temperate rainforest as a model system to evaluate such links. We focus on key above- and belowground production and hydrological transport processes that control the land-to-ocean flow of materials and their influence on nearshore marine ecosystems. We evaluate how these connections may be altered by global climate change and we identify knowledge gaps in our understanding of the source, transport, and fate of terrestrial materials along this coastal margin. Finally, we propose five priority research themes in this region that are relevant for understanding coastal ecosystem links more broadly.

BioScience↗

USGS2017

Developing multi-model ensemble projections of ecologically relevant climate variables for Puerto Rico and the US Caribbean

The global increases in surface air temperature are the most widespread and direct consequence of anthropogenic climate change. However, while 21st century temperatures are projected to increase in the Caribbean, the low variability and high average temperatures suggest that impacts on ecosystems and water resources are more likely through changes to the availability, timing, and pattern of moisture. The lack of local-scale climate model information that can resolve the complex topography and small scale climate features hinders the development of robust adaptation strategies. The goal of this project was to develop a suite of local-scale climate projections using dynamic downscaling to aid the development of adaptation strategies in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). This project began by engaging the ecologists, hydrologists, and conservation biologists in the region to determine the most valuable types of information to aid research and decision making. The final product provides projections of future climate at a 2km horizontal resolution based on three global climate models and two regional climate models for a scenario with high greenhouse gas emissions. Results from the projections suggest that for Puerto Rico, annual temperature would increase between 1°C and 1.3°C by mid-century with larger temperature increases located in the interior portion of the island. Precipitation totals decrease for much of the island with island average decline between 12% and 19%, with some potentially large localized decreases exceeding 30%. The projected changes for the USVI are dominated by the surrounding ocean environment. The resulting projections will be provided to stakeholders in the region via the USGS and the CLCC.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2011

Envisioning the future of wildlife in a changing climate: Collaborative learning for adaptation planning

Natural resource managers are tasked with assessing the impacts of climate change on conservation targets and developing adaptation strategies to meet agency goals. The complex, transboundary nature of climate change demands the collaboration of scientists, managers, and stakeholders in this effort. To share, integrate, and apply knowledge from these diverse perspectives, we must engage in social learning. In 2009, we initiated a process to engage university researchers and agency scientists and managers in collaborative learning to assess the impacts of climate change on terrestrial fauna in the state of Wisconsin, USA. We constructed conceptual Bayesian networks to depict the influence of climate change, key biotic and abiotic factors, and existing stressors on the distribution and abundance of 3 species: greater prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus cupido ), wood frog ( Lithobates sylvaticus ), and Karner blue butterfly ( Plebejus melissa samuelis ). For each species, we completed a 2-stage expert review that elicited dialogue on information gaps, management opportunities, and research priorities. From our experience, collaborative network modeling proved to be a powerful tool to develop a common vision of the potential impacts of climate change on conservation targets.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2023

Body mass dynamics in wintering mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Body mass in overwintering waterfowl is an important fitness attribute as it affects winter survival, timing of spring migration, and subsequent reproductive success. Recent research in Europe and the western United States indicates body mass of mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) has increased from the late 1960s to early 2000s. The underlying mechanism is currently unknown; however, researchers hypothesize that increases are due to a more benign winter climate, increased food availability through natural and artificial flooding, introgression of wild mallard populations by game-farm mallards, or shifting of wintering distributions northward. Further investigation of factors related to winter mallard body mass increases and whether this phenomenon is occurring in other major flyways could increase understanding of intrinsic and extrinsic variables influencing waterfowl fitness. Here, we analyzed mallard body mass in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley from 1979 to 2021 to determine sources of temporal variation. We measured hunter-harvested mallards from private hunting clubs, public hunting areas, and duck-plucking businesses. Mallard body mass increased by approximately 6% among all age-sex classes from 1979 to 2021. Average mallard mass increased by about 1.5% per decade but varied substantially among years. Within years, body mass was related to rainfall and river gage height; mallards had greater mass after periods of increased rainfall or river flooding, likely due to increased food availability. Mallard body mass had a marginal negative relationship with severe cold weather (derived using a weather severity index [WSI]). While body mass increased after wet periods within years, there was no relationship of mallard body mass with wet vs dry years, low vs high flood years, or hot vs cold years. Additionally, there was no detectable change in rainfall, river discharge, or temperature from 1979 to 2021. This indicates that rainfall and river height may influence mallard body mass within years, but may not be the primary factor responsible for mass increases over time. Our research confirms changes in mallard body mass are widespread and within-season precipitation and flooding account for much of the observed annual variation. Future research investigating specific mechanisms, such as introgression of game-farm mallard DNA and climate change , may clarify their contribution to mallard body mass change over time.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2011

Multidisciplinary approaches to climate change questions

Multidisciplinary approaches are required to address the complex environmental problems of our time. Solutions to climate change problems are good examples of situations requiring complex syntheses of ideas from a vast set of disciplines including science, engineering, social science, and the humanities. Unfortunately, most ecologists have narrow training, and are not equipped to bring their environmental skills to the table with interdisciplinary teams to help solve multidisciplinary problems. To address this problem, new graduate training programs and workshops sponsored by various organizations are providing opportunities for scientists and others to learn to work together in multidisciplinary teams. Two examples of training in multidisciplinary thinking include those organized by the Santa Fe Institute and Dahlem Workshops. In addition, many interdisciplinary programs have had successes in providing insight into climate change problems including the International Panel on Climate Change, the Joint North American Carbon Program, the National Academy of Science Research Grand Challenges Initiatives, and the National Academy of Science. These programs and initiatives have had some notable success in outlining some of the problems and solutions to climate change. Scientists who can offer their specialized expertise to interdisciplinary teams will be more successful in helping to solve the complex problems related to climate change.

Book chapter↗

USGS2000

Integration of a numerical model and remotely sensed data to study urban/rural land surface climate processes

Simulation of urban/rural land surface climate processes using boundary layer climate models requires accurate input data with regard to surface thermal and radiative properties. The research reported here resulted in development of a procedure to integrate the satellite-derived surface biophysical parameters with a boundary layer climate model for simulating spatial surface energy exchange. The procedure was tested through spatial surface energy balance simulation of an urban/rural landscape in eastern Nebraska. The modeled surface temperature and net radiation were compared to those derived from the concurrent satellite data. The errors of the modeled surface temperature were small, and were mainly attributed to uncertainties in the estimation of surface moisture availability and satellite-derived surface radiant temperature. Modeled net radiation was also in agreement with the values calculated from satellite data. Modeled turbulent heat fluxes were in general agreement as compared to those reported in the literature, but the model tended to overestimate the latent heat flux for most rural land cover types. It was concluded that by incorporation of satellite-derived surface physical parameters into a boundary layer model, simulation of spatial land surface climate processes was much improved. The method and procedures developed from this study can be utilized in other boundary layer climate models.

Nebraska↗

USGS2025

One-hundred fundamental, open questions to integrate methodological approaches in lake ice research

The rate of technological innovation within aquatic sciences outpaces the collective ability of individual scientists within the field to make appropriate use of those technologies. The process of in situ lake sampling remains the primary choice to comprehensively understand an aquatic ecosystem at local scales; however, the impact of climate change on lakes necessitates the rapid advancement of understanding and the incorporation of lakes on both landscape and global scales. Three fields driving innovation within winter limnology that we address here are autonomous real-time in situ monitoring, remote sensing, and modeling. The recent progress in low-power in situ sensing and data telemetry allows continuous tracing of under-ice processes in selected lakes as well as the development of global lake observational networks. Remote sensing offers consistent monitoring of numerous systems, allowing limnologists to ask certain questions across large scales. Models are advancing and historically come in different types (process-based or statistical data-driven), with the recent technological advancements and integration of machine learning and hybrid process-based/statistical models. Lake ice modeling enhances our understanding of lake dynamics and allows for projections under future climate warming scenarios. To encourage the merging of technological innovation within limnological research of the less-studied winter period, we have accumulated both essential details on the history and uses of contemporary sampling, remote sensing, and modeling techniques. We crafted 100 questions in the field of winter limnology that aim to facilitate the cross-pollination of intensive and extensive modes of study to broaden knowledge of the winter period.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2017

Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota

Simulation models can represent complexities of the real world and serve as virtual laboratories for asking “what if…?” questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. However, simulation models have limited relevance to real-world applications when designed without input from people who could use the simulated scenarios to inform their decisions. Here, we report on a state-and-transition simulation model of vegetation dynamics that was coupled to a scenario planning process and co-produced by researchers, resource managers, local subject-matter experts, and climate change adaptation specialists to explore potential effects of climate scenarios and management alternatives on key resources in southwest South Dakota. Input from management partners and local experts was critical for representing key vegetation types, bison and cattle grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate change and management on rangeland productivity and composition given the paucity of published data on many of these topics. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between grazer density and vegetation composition, as well as between the short- and long-term costs of invasive species management. It also pointed to impactful uncertainties related to the effects of fire and grazing on vegetation. More broadly, a scenario-based approach to model co-production bracketed the uncertainty associated with climate change and ensured that the most important (and impactful) uncertainties related to resource management were addressed. This cooperative study demonstrates six opportunities for scientists to engage users throughout the modeling process to improve model utility and relevance: (1) identifying focal dynamics and variables, (2) developing conceptual model(s), (3) parameterizing the simulation, (4) identifying relevant climate scenarios and management alternatives, (5) evaluating and refining the simulation, and (6) interpreting the results. We also reflect on lessons learned and offer several recommendations for future co-production efforts, with the aim of advancing the pursuit of usable science.

South Dakota↗

USGS2023

Mesocarnivores of western rangelands

There are 22 species of mesocarnivores (carnivores weighing < 15 kg) belonging to five families that live in rangelands of the western United States. Mesocarnivores are understudied relative to large carnivores but can have significant impacts on ecosystems and human dimensions. In this chapter, we review the current state of knowledge about the biology, ecology, and human interactions of the mesocarnivores that occupy the rangelands of the central and western United States. In these two regions, mesocarnivores may serve as the apex predator in areas where large carnivores no longer occur, and can have profound impacts on endemic prey, disease ecology, and livestock production. Some mesocarnivore species are valued because they are harvested for food and fur, while others are considered nuisance species because they can have negative impacts on ranching. Many mesocarnivores have flexible life history strategies that make them well-suited for future population growth or range expansion as western landscapes change due to rapid human population growth, landscape development, and alterations to ecosystems from climate change; however other mesocarnivores continue to decline. More research on this important guild is needed to understand their role in western working landscapes.

Book chapter↗

USGS2012

Global Change and the Function and Distribution of Wetlands

The Global Change Ecology and Wetlands book series will highlight the latest research from the world leaders in the field of climate change in wetlands. Global Change and the Function and Distribution of Wetlands highlights information of importance to wetland ecologists. The chapters include syntheses of international studies on the effects of drought on function and regeneration in wetlands, sea level rise and the distribution of mangrove swamps, former distributions of swamp species and future lessons from paleoecology, and shifts in atmospheric emissions across geographical regions in wetlands. Overall, the book will contribute to a better understanding of the potential effects of climate change on world wetland distribution and function.

Book↗

USGS2014

Nitrogen deposition effects on diatom communities in lakes from three National Parks in Washington State

The goal of this study was to document if lakes in National Parks in Washington have exceeded critical levels of nitrogen (N) deposition, as observed in other Western States. We measured atmospheric N deposition, lake water quality, and sediment diatoms at our study lakes. Water chemistry showed that our study lakes were ultra-oligotrophic with ammonia and nitrate concentrations often at or below detection limits with low specific conductance (−1 year −1 and were variable both within and across the parks. Diatom assemblages in a single sediment core from Hoh Lake (Olympic National Park) displayed a shift to increased relative abundances of Asterionella formosa and Fragilaria tenera beginning in the 1969–1975 timeframe, whereas these species were not found at the remaining (nine) sites. These diatom species are known to be indicative of N enrichment and were used to determine an empirical critical load of N deposition, or threshold level, where changes in diatom communities were observed at Hoh Lake. However, N deposition at the remaining nine lakes does not seem to exceed a critical load at this time. At Milk Lake, also in Olympic National Park, there was some evidence that climate change might be altering diatom communities, but more research is needed to confirm this. We used modeled precipitation for Hoh Lake and annual inorganic N concentrations from a nearby National Atmospheric Deposition Program station, to calculate elevation-corrected N deposition for 1980–2009 at Hoh Lake. An exponential fit to this data was hindcasted to the 1969–1975 time period, and we estimate a critical load of 1.0 to 1.2 kg N ha −1 year −1 for wet deposition for this lake.

Washington↗

USGS2020

Long term persistence of aspen in snowdrift-dependent ecosystems

Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) forests throughout the western United States have experienced significant mortality in recent decades, much of which has been influenced by climate variability, especially drought. In the western portion of its range, where most precipitation arrives during winter as snowfall and summers are dry, snowdrifts that persist into the growing season provide soil moisture recharge that sustain many aspen groves that are important locations of biodiversity within the landscape. There is growing concern that reduced snowpack due to climate change may reduce the long-term persistence and productivity of aspen communities in these regions. In this study, we evaluated the potential for climate change and drought to reduce or eliminate isolated aspen communities in southwestern Idaho. We used a landscape simulation model integrated with inputs from an empirically derived biogeochemical model of growth, and a species distribution model of regeneration to forecast how changes in climate, declining snowpack, and competition with a conifer species is likely to affect aspen occupancy over the next 85-years. We found that simulated reductions in snowpack depth (and associated increases in climatic water deficit) caused a reduction in aspen persistence; aspen occupancy was reduced under all high emissions climate scenarios. Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) occupancy also declined under all future climates. Aspen regeneration declined over the course of all simulations, with an ensemble ratio of mortality/establishment increasing over the course of both low and high emissions climate scenarios. Climate-induced mortality of aspen clones increased in frequency under all climate scenarios and, under the most severe emissions scenarios, contributed to a substantial decline of aspen cover. Our research suggests that snowbanks will be an important determinant of long-term persistence of aspen under changing climate in the region.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS2002

Economic and ecological impacts of abrupt climate change

M ost studies of the potential ecological and economic impacts of climate change and greenhouse warming have focused on scenarios that involve gradual climate change. Accumulating evidence from the paleosciences, however, shows that the patterns of change suggested by projections of future climate change are not representative of past climatic changes or of the transitions between different climatic regimes. In particular, many recent paleostudies indicate that current climate is much more stable than were climates in earlier periods.

Book chapter↗

USGS2007

Paleoecology and ecosystem restoration: Case studies from Chesapeake Bay and the Florida Everglades

Climate extremes that cause droughts, floods, or large temperature fluctuations can complicate ecosystem restoration efforts focused on local and regional human disturbance. Restoration targets are often based primarily on monitoring data and modeling simulations, which provide information on species' short-term response to disturbance and environmental variables. Consequently, the targets may be unsustainable under the spectrum of natural variability inherent in the system or under future climate change. Increasingly, ecologists and restoration planners recognize the value of the long temporal perspective provided by paleoecological data. Advances in paleoclimatology, including better climate proxy methods and temporal resolution, contribute to our understanding of ecosystem response to anthropogenic and climatic forcing at all time scales. We highlight paleoecological research in the Chesapeake Bay and the Florida Everglades and summarize the resulting contributions to restoration planning. Integration of paleoecological, historic, monitoring, and modeling efforts will lead to the development of sustainable, adaptive management strategies for ecosystem restoration.

Delaware, Florida, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvani↗

USGS2010

Framework for ecological monitoring on lands of Alaska National Wildlife Refuges and their partners

National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska and throughout the U.S. have begun developing a spatially comprehensive monitoring program to inform management decisions, and to provide data to broader research projects. In an era of unprecedented rates of climate change, monitoring is essential to detecting, understanding, communicating and mitigating climate-change effects on refuge and other resources under the protection of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and requires monitoring results to address spatial scales broader than individual refuges. This document provides guidance for building a monitoring program for refuges in Alaska that meets refuge-specific management needs while also allowing synthesis and summary of ecological conditions at the ecoregional and statewide spatial scales.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

Surface-water radon-222 distribution along the west-central Florida shelf

In February 2009 and August 2009, the spatial distribution of radon-222 in surface water was mapped along the west-central Florida shelf as collaboration between the Response of Florida Shelf Ecosystems to Climate Change project and a U.S. Geological Survey Mendenhall Research Fellowship project. This report summarizes the surface distribution of radon-222 from two cruises and evaluates potential physical controls on radon-222 fluxes. Radon-222 is an inert gas produced overwhelmingly in sediment and has a short half-life of 3.8 days; activities in surface water ranged between 30 and 170 becquerels per cubic meter. Overall, radon-222 activities were enriched in nearshore surface waters relative to offshore waters. Dilution in offshore waters is expected to be the cause of the low offshore activities. While thermal stratification of the water column during the August survey may explain higher radon-222 activities relative to the February survey, radon-222 activity and integrated surface-water inventories decreased exponentially from the shoreline during both cruises. By estimating radon-222 evasion by wind from nearby buoy data and accounting for internal production from dissolved radium-226, its radiogenic long-lived parent, a simple one-dimensional model was implemented to determine the role that offshore mixing, benthic influx, and decay have on the distribution of excess radon-222 inventories along the west Florida shelf. For multiple statistically based boundary condition scenarios (first quartile, median, third quartile, and maximum radon-222 inshore of 5 kilometers), the cross-shelf mixing rates and average nearshore submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) rates varied from 100.38 to 10-3.4 square kilometers per day and 0.00 to 1.70 centimeters per day, respectively. This dataset and modeling provide the first attempt to assess cross-shelf mixing and SGD on such a large spatial scale. Such estimates help scale up SGD rates that are often made at 1- to 10-meter resolution to a coarser but more regionally applicable scale of 1- to 10-kilometer resolution. More stringent analyses and model evaluation are required, but results and analyses presented in this report provide the foundation for conducting a more rigorous statistical assessment.

Florida↗

USGS2019

GRACE storage change characteristics (2003–2016) over major surface basins and principal aquifers in the Conterminous United States

In this research, we characterized the changes in Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment’s (GRACE) monthly total water storage anomaly (TWSA) in 18 surface basins and 12 principal aquifers in the Conterminous United States (CONUS) over 2003–2016. Regions with high variability in storage were identified. Ten basins and 4 aquifers showed significant change in storage. Eight surface basins and 8 aquifers were found to show decadal stability in storage. A pixel-based analysis of storage showed that New England basin and North Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer showed the largest area under positive storage change. Whereas, the Lower Colorado basin and California aquifers showed largest area under negative change. This study found that historically wetter regions (with more storage) are becoming wetter and dryer regions (with less storage) are becoming dryer. Fourier analysis of the GRACE data showed that while all basins exhibited prominent annual periodicities, significant sub-annual and multi-annual cycles also exist in some basins. The storage turnover period was estimated to range between 6 to 12 months. The primary explanatory variable (PEV) of TWSA was identified for each region. This study provides new insights on several aspects of basin or aquifer storage that are important for understanding basin/aquifer hydrology.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2014

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers support disaster risk reduction while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we explore the dominant modes of East African rainfall variability, links between these modes and sea surface temperatures, and a simple index-based monitoring-prediction system suitable for drought early warning.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗