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Introduction

The inevitable increase in demand and continuing depletion of accessible oil and gas resources during the 21st century will cause greater dependence on energy minerals such as coal, uranium, and unconventional sources of oil and natural gas to satisfy our increasing energy needs. The Energy Minerals Division (EMD) of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) is a membership-based technical interest group with goals to: (1) advance the science of geology, especially as it relates to exploration, discovery, and production of mineral resources and subsurface gas and liquids (other than conventional oil and gas) for energy-related purposes; (2) foster the spirit of scientific research; (3) disseminate information related to the geology of energy minerals and the associated technology of energy mineral resources extraction; and (4) advance the professional wellbeing of its members. This article contains a brief summary of some of the 2006 annual committee reports presented to the EMD Leadership. These reports are available to the EMD Membership at http://emd.aapg.org/members_only. This collection of short reports is presented here by the EMD as a service to the general geologic community and to simulate interest in the focus technical areas of EMD.

Natural Resources Research↗

Volatility of bitumen prices and implications for the industry

Sustained crude oil price increases have led to increased investment in and production of Canadian bitumen to supplement North American oil supplies. For new projects, the evaluation of profitability is based on a prediction of the future price path of bitumen and ultimately light/medium crude oil. This article examines the relationship between the bitumen and light crude oil prices in the context of a simple error-correction economic-adjustment model. The analysis shows bitumen prices to be significantly more volatile than light crude prices. Also, the dominant effect of an oil price shock on bitumen prices is immediate and is amplified, both in absolute terms and percentage price changes. It is argued that the bitumen industry response to such market risks will likely be a realignment toward vertical integration via new downstream construction, mergers, or on a de facto basis by the establishment of alliances. ?? 2008 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Natural Resources Research↗

Evaluation of procedures for prediction of unconventional gas in the presence of geologic trends

This study extends the application of local spatial nonparametric prediction models to the estimation of recoverable gas volumes in continuous-type gas plays to regimes where there is a single geologic trend. A transformation is presented, originally proposed by Tomczak, that offsets the distortions caused by the trend. This article reports on numerical experiments that compare predictive and classification performance of the local nonparametric prediction models based on the transformation with models based on Euclidean distance. The transformation offers improvement in average root mean square error when the trend is not severely misspecified. Because of the local nature of the models, even those based on Euclidean distance in the presence of trends are reasonably robust. The tests based on other model performance metrics such as prediction error associated with the high-grade tracts and the ability of the models to identify sites with the largest gas volumes also demonstrate the robustness of both local modeling approaches. ?? International Association for Mathematical Geology 2009.

Natural Resources Research↗

An Analysis of the Published Mineral Resource Estimates of the Haji-Gak Iron Deposit, Afghanistan

The Haji-Gak iron deposit of eastern Bamyan Province, eastern Afghanistan, was studied extensively and resource calculations were made in the 1960s by Afghan and Russian geologists. Recalculation of the resource estimates verifies the original estimates for categories A (in-place resources known in detail), B (in-place resources known in moderate detail), and C 1 (in-place resources estimated on sparse data), totaling 110.8 Mt, or about 6% of the resources as being supportable for the methods used in the 1960s. C 2 (based on a loose exploration grid with little data) resources are based on one ore grade from one drill hole, and P 2 (prognosis) resources are based on field observations, field measurements, and an ore grade derived from averaging grades from three better sampled ore bodies. C 2 and P 2 resources are 1,659.1 Mt or about 94% of the total resources in the deposit. The vast P 2 resources have not been drilled or sampled to confirm their extent or quality. The purpose of this article is to independently evaluate the resources of the Haji-Gak iron deposit by using the available geologic and mineral resource information including geologic maps and cross sections, sampling data, and the analog-estimating techniques of the 1960s to determine the size and tenor of the deposit.

Haji-Gak iron deposit in Eastern Afghanistan↗

The discourses of incidents: Cougars on Mt. Elden and in Sabino Canyon, Arizona

Incidents are relatively short periods of intensified discourse that arise from public responses to symbolically important actions by public officials, and an important part of the conflict that increasingly surrounds state wildlife management in the West. In an effort to better understand incidents as a facet of this conflict, we analyzed the discourses of two incidents in Arizona that were precipitated by the intended removal of cougars by managers in response to public safety concerns. We used newspaper content, 1999–2007, to elucidate seminal patterns of public discourses and discourse coalitions as well as differences in discursive focus between incident periods and background periods. Cougars were mentioned in newspaper articles 13–33 times more often during incidents compared with background periods. State wildlife agency commissioners and hunters were part of a discourse coalition that advocated killing cougars to solve problems, blamed cougars and those who promoted the animals’ intrinsic value and sought to retain power to define and solve cougar-related problems. Personnel from affected state and federal agencies expressed a similar discourse. Environmentalists, animal protection activists, and some elected officials were of a coalition that defined “the problem” primarily in terms of people’s behaviors, including behaviors associated with current institutional arrangements. This discourse advocated decentralizing power over cougar management. The discourses reflected different preferences for the allocations of power and use of lethal versus non-lethal methods, which aligned with apparent core beliefs and participants’ enfranchisement or disenfranchisement by current state-level management power arrangements.

Arizona↗

A bright spot analysis of inland recreational fisheries in the face of climate change: Learning about adaptation from small successes

Inland recreational fisheries have social, economic, and ecological importance worldwide but these fisheries are increasingly challenged by the diverse effects of climate change. Coupled with other anthropogenic stressors, climate change has contributed to declines in freshwater biodiversity of greater severity than those observed across marine or terrestrial taxa. At a macro level, inland fisheries are experiencing declines. There are, however, a number of success stories, or ‘bright spots,’ in inland recreational fisheries management, where innovative approaches are leading to increases in social and ecological well-being in the face of climate change. Cases such as these are important sources of inspiration and learning about adaptation to climate and environmental change. In this article, we analyze 11 examples of such ‘bright spots’ drawn from multiple jurisdictions around the world from which we extracted lessons that might apply to fisheries management challenges beyond the region and context of each case. Collectively, these bright spots highlight adaptive initiatives that allow for recreational fisheries management to mitigate to stressors associated with current and future climate change. Examples identified include community-based restoration projects, collaborative and adaptive approaches to short-term fisheries closures, transdisciplinary large-scale conservation projects, and conservation-minded efforts by individuals and communities. By highlighting examples of ‘small wins’ within inland recreational fisheries management, this review contributes to the idea that a ‘positive future’ for inland recreational fisheries in the face of climate change is possible and highlights potential strategies to adapt to current and future climate scenarios.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗

Climate and soil texture influence patterns of forb species richness and composition in big sagebrush plant communities across their spatial extent in the western US

Article for outlet: Plant Ecology. Abstract: Big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) plant communities are widespread non-forested drylands in western North American and similar to all shrub steppe ecosystems world-wide are composed of a shrub overstory layer and a forb and graminoid understory layer. Forbs account for the majority of plant species diversity in big sagebrush plant communities and are important for ecosystem function. Few studies have explored the geographic patterns of forb species richness and composition and their relationships with environmental variables in these communities. Our objectives were to examine the small and large-scale spatial patterns in forb species richness and composition and the influence of environmental variables. We sampled forb species richness and composition along transects at 15 field sites in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming, built species-area relationships to quantify differences in forb species richness at sites, and used Principal Components Analysis and nonmetric multidimensional scaling to identify relationships among environmental variables and forb species richness and composition. We found that species richness was most strongly correlated with soil texture, while species composition was most related to climate. The combination of climate and soil texture influences water availability, with important consequences for forb species richness and composition, which suggests climate-change induced modification of soil water availability may have important implications for plant species diversity in the future. Our paper is the first to our knowledge to examine forb biodiversity patterns in big sagebrush ecosystems in relation to environmental factors across the big sagebrush region.

Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Wy↗

Current advances in coastal wetland elevation dynamics: Introduction to the special issue

The thematic issue entitled, “Current Advances in Coastal Wetland Elevation Dynamics,” draws on topics from two special sessions at the CERF 2021 conference plus additional recent research describing scientific insights gained from the Surface Elevation Table–Marker Horizon (SET–MH) method and its application across the globe to quantify and understand subsurface process influences on wetland elevation change and wetland responses to sea-level rise. The findings group articles within each of five thematic topics. (1) A 30-year retrospective on the scientific insights gained on surface and shallow subsurface process dynamics. (2) Investigations of the subsurface soil process influences on wetland elevation. (3) How the scientific community applies the SET–MH method to quantify and understand wetland responses to RSLR and other environmental drivers such as altered hydrology and sediment supply. (4) How SET–MH data are used in long-term monitoring networks at different geographic scales. (5) Pairing the SET-MH method with (a) survey techniques to increase lateral coverage of wetland elevation trends and (b) geodetic measurements to increase vertical coverage of vertical land motion.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

High-frequency Rayleigh-wave method

High-frequency (≥2 Hz) Rayleigh-wave data acquired with a multichannel recording system have been utilized to determine shear (S)-wave velocities in near-surface geophysics since the early 1980s. This overview article discusses the main research results of high-frequency surface-wave techniques achieved by research groups at the Kansas Geological Survey and China University of Geosciences in the last 15 years. The multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW) method is a non-invasive acoustic approach to estimate near-surface S-wave velocity. The differences between MASW results and direct borehole measurements are approximately 15% or less and random. Studies show that simultaneous inversion with higher modes and the fundamental mode can increase model resolution and an investigation depth. The other important seismic property, quality factor ( Q ), can also be estimated with the MASW method by inverting attenuation coefficients of Rayleigh waves. An inverted model (S-wave velocity or Q ) obtained using a damped least-squares method can be assessed by an optimal damping vector in a vicinity of the inverted model determined by an objective function, which is the trace of a weighted sum of model-resolution and model-covariance matrices. Current developments include modeling high-frequency Rayleigh-waves in near-surface media, which builds a foundation for shallow seismic or Rayleigh-wave inversion in the time-offset domain; imaging dispersive energy with high resolution in the frequency-velocity domain and possibly with data in an arbitrary acquisition geometry, which opens a door for 3D surface-wave techniques; and successfully separating surface-wave modes, which provides a valuable tool to perform S-wave velocity profiling with high-horizontal resolution.

Earth Science↗

Foreword: function, classification and management of Asian wetlands

Asian wetland conservation is critical for future environmental protection in the region, but these wetlands are understudied. In particular, there is a lack of research studies published in English due to the limited access of Asian researchers to western scientific journals. This special feature of Wetlands showcases primary research conducted in Asian wetlands and was sponsored by various agencies of the U.S. and Chinese governments including the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of State, and The State Forestry Administration of the People’s Republic of China. The featured articles should be of great value to wetland scientists, managers and policy-makers with an interest in the conservation of Asian wetlands.

Wetlands↗

Hydrology of prairie wetlands: Understanding the integrated surface-water and groundwater processes

Wetland managers and policy makers need to make decisions based on a sound scientific understanding of hydrological and ecological functions of wetlands. This article presents an overview of the hydrology of prairie wetlands intended for managers, policy makers, and researchers new to this field (e.g., graduate students), and a quantitative conceptual framework for understanding the hydrological functions of prairie wetlands and their responses to changes in climate and land use. The existence of prairie wetlands in the semi-arid environment of the Prairie-Pothole Region (PPR) depends on the lateral inputs of runoff water from their catchments because mean annual potential evaporation exceeds precipitation in the PPR. Therefore, it is critically important to consider wetlands and catchments as highly integrated hydrological units. The water balance of individual wetlands is strongly influenced by runoff from the catchment and the exchange of groundwater between the central pond and its moist margin. Land-use practices in the catchment have a sensitive effect on runoff and hence the water balance. Surface and subsurface storage and connectivity among individual wetlands controls the diversity of pond permanence within a wetland complex, resulting in a variety of eco-hydrological functionalities necessary for maintaining the integrity of prairie-wetland ecosystems.

Wetlands↗

Tidal wetland resilience to increased rates of sea level rise in the Chesapeake Bay: Introduction to the special feature

The papers in this Special Feature are the result of the first Marsh Resilience Summit in the Chesapeake Bay region, which occurred in February 2019. The Chesapeake Bay region has one of the highest rates of relative sea level rise in the U.S., jeopardizing over 1000 km 2 of tidal wetlands along with other coastal lands. The goal of the Summit and this collection of articles is to analyze tidal wetland response to accelerating sea level rise and the effect their response will have on adaptation planning for surrounding communities. Ten Summit presenters share their research in this Special Feature. In this Introduction, we summarize their findings on evaluating restoration potential at the site-specific level, measuring and projecting marsh migration and erosions rates, describing impacts of wetland migration on a marsh dependent animal, effects on human communities, and finally the roles of property owners and government on future tidal wetland extent. These contributions demonstrate that tidal marsh distribution is dynamic in response to sea level rise, and that social, legal, and policy tools can be used and further developed to enable opportunities for restoring or conserving wetlands when stakeholders are engaged effectively. The papers here and feedback from Summit participants illuminate diverse priorities, research unknowns, and next steps for land use planning toward resilience of the Chesapeake Bay region that also can inform global communities.

Maryland, Virgina↗

Agent-based models for collective animal movement: Proximity-induced state switching

Animal movement is a complex phenomenon where individual movement patterns can be influenced by a variety of factors including the animal’s current activity, available terrain and habitat, and locations of other animals. Motivated by modeling grizzly bear movement in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, this article presents an agent-based model represented in a state-space framework for collective animal movement. The novel contribution of this work is a collective animal movement model that captures interactions between animals that can trigger changes in movement patterns, such as when a dominant grizzly bear may cause another subordinate bear to temporarily leave an area. The modeling framework enables learning different movement patterns through a state-space representation with particle-MCMC methods for fully Bayesian model fitting and the prediction of future animal movement behaviors.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmen↗

Restoration at the landscape scale as a means of mitigation and adaptation to climate change

Purpose of Review Although landscape-scale restoration efforts are gaining traction worldwide, their success is generally unknown. We review landscape-scale restorations to gain insight to whether focal ecological outcomes have been achieved, in the face of changing environmental conditions. Recent Findings Only 9% of the 477 articles that resulted from our search were studies of landscape-scale restorations. The majority (73%) of the landscape restorations from our study have occurred since the 1990s, indicating that this type of restoration has gained in popularity in the last 30 years. Furthermore, 67% of these restoration studies occurred in a single country: China. Many scientific studies have addressed the ability of a species to shift ranges with climate change, yet few of the landscape-scale restoration studies used for our study addressed this question. Instead, 87% of the studies focused on ecosystem function, rather than community-level processes, as a result of restoration. Summary There is a clear need for more research to be undertaken on the ecological outcomes of landscape-scale restorations to understand whether they enable species and communities to shift their ranges or adapt to climate change. Conservation practitioners could utilize our decision matrix as a tool to guide restoration of individual sites within a landscape context, as well as current and future climatic conditions, to guide ecological outcomes of interest. Optimal biodiversity maintenance requires habitat conservation in concert with restoration activities at the landscape scale, and the latter, likely increasingly so in a world of changing climate.

Current Landscape Ecology Reports↗

Oil development and conservation in Arctic America

As in his earlier article to which reference is made, the author stresses the need for more background information and a much greater research effort before problems of environmental protection from oil developments in northern Alaska can be effectively tackled. Meanwhile, there are indications that the earlier estimates of around ten thousand million barrels should be raised—perhaps to about five times as much. There has moreover been a great increate also in the known and probable gas reserves in northern Canada—particularly in the Arctic Archipelago. In spite of planned automation, people will be needed for development—including Eskimos and Indians, whose interests will be widely protected under the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act of December 1971. The International Biological Programme ‘Tundra Biome’ projects have accumulated much new information, including the results to be expected from disturbing the tundra seriously, and means of preventing or repairing damage to it. There is much interest in Alaska and Canada in protection of the northern environment, and in the former the US National Environmental Policy Act is already leading to stricter control of some developments.

Biological Conservation↗

Quantitative analysis of saltwater-freshwater relationships in groundwater systems-A historical perspective

Although much progress has been made toward the mathematical description of saltwater-freshwater relationships in groundwater systems since the late 19th century, the advective and dispersive mechanisms involved are still incompletely understood. This article documents the major historical advances in this subject and summarizes the major direction of current studies. From the time of Badon Ghyben and Herzberg, it has been recognized that density is important in mathematically describing saltwater-freshwater systems. Other mechanisms, such as hydrodynamic dispersion, were identified later and are still not fully understood. Quantitative analysis of a saltwater-freshwater system attempts to mathematically describe the physical system and the important mechanisms using reasonable simplifications and assumptions. This paper, in developing the history of quantitative analysis discusses many of these simplifications and assumptions and their effect on describing and understanding the phenomenon.

Journal of Hydrology↗

A remote sensing based vegetation classification logic for global land cover analysis

This article proposes a simple new logic for classifying global vegetation. The critical features of this classification are that 1) it is based on simple, observable, unambiguous characteristics of vegetation structure that are important to ecosystem biogeochemistry and can be measured in the field for validation, 2) the structural characteristics are remotely sensible so that repeatable and efficient global reclassifications of existing vegetation will be possible, and 3) the defined vegetation classes directly translate into the biophysical parameters of interest by global climate and biogeochemical models. A first test of this logic for the continental United States is presented based on an existing 1 km AVHRR normalized difference vegetation index database. Procedures for solving critical remote sensing problems needed to implement the classification are discussed. Also, some inferences from this classification to advanced vegetation biophysical variables such as specific leaf area and photosynthetic capacity useful to global biogeochemical modeling are suggested.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

Further discussions on the relationship between cumulated intercepted solar radiation and crop growth

A strong correlation exists between intercepted solar radiation and crop growth. We cautioned that many derivations of the functional relationship between solar energy and biomass use cumulated data, and therefore have logical and arithmetic weaknesses. We examined the growth response of plants to solar energy by using rates of change, of both interception and growth. Our analysis revealed that measurements of light interception can only establish the relationship a posteriori. Replacing interception data with normalized random numbers did not change the quality of the relations. Several scientists have contested our views. This article reconfirms the general validity of our analysis and of our conclusions, that it is not possible to determine plant growth on the sole basis of intercepted solar energy.

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology↗