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Results for “Sustainability”

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At least 433 records · Page 24Linked to original sources

USGS2009

Forecasting urban growth across the United States-Mexico border

The sister-city area of Nogales, Arizona, and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico, is known collectively as Ambos (both) Nogales. This area was historically one city and was administratively divided by the Gadsden Purchase in 1853. These arid-lands have limited and sensitive natural resources. Environmental planning can support sustainable development to accommodate the predicted influx of population. The objective of this research is to quantify the amount of predicted urban growth for the Ambos Nogales watershed to support future planning for sustainable development. Two modeling regimes are explored. Our goal is to identify possible growth patterns associated with the twin-city area as a whole and with the two cities modeled as separate entities. We analyzed the cross-border watershed using regression analysis from satellite images from 1975, 1983, 1996, and 2002 and created urban area classifications. We used these classifications as input to the urban growth model, SLEUTH, to simulate likely patterns of development and define projected conversion probabilities. Model results indicate that the two cities are undergoing very different patterns of change and identify locations of expected growth based on historical development. Growth in Nogales, Arizona is stagnant while the urban area in Nogales, Sonora is exploding. This paper demonstrates an application that portrays how future binational urban growth could develop and affect the environment. This research also provides locations of potential growth for use in city planning.

Computers, Environment and Urban Systems↗

USGS2013

Capacity, pressure, demand, and flow: A conceptual framework for analyzing ecosystem service provision and delivery

Ecosystem services provide an instinctive way to understand the trade-offs associated with natural resource management. However, despite their apparent usefulness, several hurdles have prevented ecosystem services from becoming deeply embedded in environmental decision-making. Ecosystem service studies vary widely in focal services, geographic extent, and in methods for defining and measuring services. Dissent among scientists on basic terminology and approaches to evaluating ecosystem services create difficulties for those trying to incorporate ecosystem services into decision-making. To facilitate clearer comparison among recent studies, we provide a synthesis of common terminology and explain a rationale and framework for distinguishing among the components of ecosystem service delivery, including: an ecosystem's capacity to produce services; ecological pressures that interfere with an ecosystem's ability to provide the service; societal demand for the service; and flow of the service to people. We discuss how interpretation and measurement of these four components can differ among provisioning, regulating, and cultural services. Our flexible framework treats service capacity, ecological pressure, demand, and flow as separate but interactive entities to improve our ability to evaluate the sustainability of service provision and to help guide management decisions. We consider ecosystem service provision to be sustainable when demand is met without decreasing capacity for future provision of that service or causing undesirable declines in other services. When ecosystem service demand exceeds ecosystem capacity to provide services, society can choose to enhance natural capacity, decrease demand and/or ecological pressure, or invest in a technological substitute. Because regulating services are frequently overlooked in environmental assessments, we provide a more detailed examination of regulating services and propose a novel method for quantifying the flow of regulating services based on estimates of ecological work. We anticipate that our synthesis and framework will reduce inconsistency and facilitate coherence across analyses of ecosystem services, thereby increasing their utility in environmental decision-making.

Ecological Complexity↗

USGS2022

Accessibility of environmental data for sharing: The role of UX in large cyberinfrastructure projects

Incorporating user experience (UX) testing when creating research cyberinfrastructure is often overlooked, but if left too late, the cost of retrofitting is considerable, and the very clients the cyberinfrastructure was built to serve may be lost. Successfully integrating UX testing into the product development cycle can be difficult but rewarding. This paper describes how UX evaluations were incorporated over ten years of operation of DataONE ( www.dataone.org ), a multi-sector science research cyberinfrastructure project created to support the discovery, access, and sustainability of data about life on Earth and the environment that sustains it. The diverse stakeholders in DataONE include data creators and users such as researchers and government workers across the broad scope of the earth and environmental sciences as well as those who hold and manage data such as libraries and data repositories. Between 2009 and 2019 DataONE members designed and constructed data management tools and services to fulfill the DataONE objectives. To assist in achieving its goals, a participatory design approach was used by establishing several largely volunteer and stakeholder-representative working groups, including the Usability and Assessment Working Group. This Working Group conducted over forty UX evaluations to assess the usability of DataONE products and websites at various stages of the development process. In addition to improving the usability of DataONE products, the UX evaluations fostered community involvement by building trust and engagement with the products being developed. The DataONE UX experience yields several important lessons which will improve the success of other projects. It is our conclusion that UX testing should be a mandatory part of the design of any cyberinfrastructure project.

Ecological Informatics↗

USGS2022

Long-term assessments are critical to determining persistence and shoreline protection from oyster reef nature-based coastal defenses

Nature-based coastal defense using bivalve reefs provides a potentially self-sustaining approach for regions facing high coastal land loss, relative sea level rise and increasing frequency and intensity of storms. Success of such nature-based coastal defense depends on the reef-building species' life history, habitat requirements, and ability to thrive through short-term and longer-term environmental variation, yet few projects have reported on outcomes beyond the first few years. In coastal Louisiana, USA, Crassostrea virginica (oyster) is an ecosystem engineer, creating self-sustaining, vertically accreting reefs that also provide ecosystem services. Here, we examine the short (< 3 years) and medium (> 10 years) term outcomes of experimental reefs constructed in 2009 for nature-based coastal defense in a Louisiana, USA estuarine lake. Oyster reef density, demography, along with adjacent salt marsh, and shoreline movement were compared at six fringing shoreline reefs and paired reference sites over the first three years post-construction (2009–2011), and a decade later (2019–2020). Oyster density measured in 2019–2020 (< 60 ind m −2 ) was less than 10% of density measured during 2009–2011 (> 1000 ind m −2 ). This density difference largely reflected a lack of new recruits and small oysters (< 75 mm shell height) in later samples, with adult oyster densities similar between 2011, 2019 and 2020. Lack of smaller oysters in recent sampling likely reflected the impact of multiple extended low salinity events in this region in recent years, including the record-breaking low salinity in 2019. No differences in shoreline characteristics were detected in marsh vegetation, soil properties or nutrient concentrations between reef and reference sites during early and later years. Similarly, shoreline erosion at both reef and reference sites immediately post-construction, and 10 years later, was high (~1 m y −1 ) indicating a lack of shoreline protection from these reefs. These findings highlight the need to consider both current and future conditions, including the effect of extreme years, when implementing nature-based coastal defense. On the other hand, the persistence of reproductive-sized oysters on the reef 10 years post creation, indicate reef resilience and potential for reef development and shoreline benefits, should better site conditions return in future years. Determining restoration success within variable and dynamic environments requires frequent monitoring which is required to understand responses to short and longer-term environmental variation.

Louisiana↗

USGS2013

Influence of management and precipitation on carbon fluxes in greatplains grasslands

Suitable management and sufficient precipitation on grasslands can provide carbon sinks. The net carbon accumulation of a site from the atmosphere, modeled as the Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP), is a useful means to gauge carbon balance. Previous research has developed methods to integrate flux tower data with satellite biophysical datasets to estimate NEP across large regions. A related method uses the Ecosystem Performance Anomaly (EPA) as a satellite-derived indicator of disturbance intensity (e.g., livestock stocking rate, fire, and insect damage). To better understand the interactions among management, climate, and carbon dynamics, we evaluated the relationship between EPA and NEP data at the 250 m scale for grasslands in the Central Great Plains, USA (ranging from semi-arid to mesic). We also used weekly estimates of NEP to evaluate the phenology of carbon dynamics, classified by EPA (i.e., by level of disturbance impact). Results show that the cumulative carbon balance over these grasslands from 2000 to 2008 was a weak net sink of 13.7 g C m −2 yr −1 . Overall, NEP increased with precipitation (R 2 = 0.39, P < 0.05) from west to east. Disturbance influenced NEP phenology; however, climate and biophysical conditions were usually more important. The NEP response to disturbance varies by ecoregion, and more generally by grassland type, where the shortgrass prairie NEP is most sensitive to disturbance, the mixed-grass prairie displays a moderate response, and tallgrass prairie is the least impacted by disturbance (as measured by EPA). Sustainable management practices in the tallgrass and mixed-grass prairie may potentially induce a period of average net carbon sink until a new equilibrium soil organic carbon is achieved. In the shortgrass prairie, management should be considered sustainable if carbon stocks are simply maintained. The consideration of site carbon balance adds to the already difficult task of managing grasslands appropriately to site conditions. Results clarify the seasonal and interannual dynamics of NEP, specifically the influence of disturbance and moisture availability.

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2010

Modeling the impacts of hunting on the population dynamics of red howler monkeys ( Alouatta seniculus )

Overexploitation of wildlife populations occurs across the humid tropics and is a significant threat to the long-term survival of large-bodied primates. To investigate the impacts of hunting on primates and ways to mitigate them, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model for a landscape that included hunted and un-hunted areas. We used the large-bodied neotropical red howler monkey ( Alouatta seniculus ) as our case study species because its life history characteristics make it vulnerable to hunting. We modeled the influence of different rates of harvest and proportions of landscape dedicated to un-hunted reserves on population persistence, population size, social dynamics, and hunting yields of red howler monkeys. In most scenarios, the un-hunted populations maintained a constant density regardless of hunting pressure elsewhere, and allowed the overall population to persist. Therefore, the overall population was quite resilient to extinction; only in scenarios without any un-hunted areas did the population go extinct. However, the total and hunted populations did experience large declines over 100 years under moderate and high hunting pressure. In addition, when reserve area decreased, population losses and losses per unit area increased disproportionately. Furthermore, hunting disrupted the social structure of troops. The number of male turnovers and infanticides increased in hunted populations, while birth rates decreased and exacerbated population losses due to hunting. Finally, our results indicated that when more than 55% of the landscape was harvested at high (30%) rates, hunting yields, as measured by kilograms of biomass, were less than those obtained from moderate harvest rates. Additionally, hunting yields, expressed as the number of individuals hunted/year/km 2 , increased in proximity to un-hunted areas, and suggested that dispersal from un-hunted areas may have contributed to hunting sustainability. These results indicate that un-hunted areas serve to enhance hunting yields, population size, and population persistence in hunted landscapes. Therefore, spatial regulation of hunting via a reserve system may be an effective management strategy for sustainable hunting, and we recommend it because it may also be more feasible to implement than harvest quotas or restrictions on season length.

Guárico↗

USGS2012

A modeling framework for integrated harvest and habitat management of North American waterfowl: Case-study of northern pintail metapopulation dynamics

We developed and evaluated the performance of a metapopulation model enabling managers to examine, for the first time, the consequences of alternative management strategies involving habitat conditions and hunting on both harvest opportunity and carrying capacity (i.e., equilibrium population size in the absence of harvest) for migratory waterfowl at a continental scale. Our focus is on the northern pintail ( Anas acuta ; hereafter, pintail), which serves as a useful model species to examine the potential for integrating waterfowl harvest and habitat management in North America. We developed submodel structure capturing important processes for pintail populations during breeding, fall migration, winter, and spring migration while encompassing spatial structure representing three core breeding areas and two core nonbreeding areas. A number of continental-scale predictions from our baseline parameterization (e.g., carrying capacity of 5.5 million, equilibrium population size of 2.9 million and harvest rate of 12% at maximum sustained yield [MSY]) were within 10% of those from the pintail harvest strategy under current use by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. To begin investigating the interaction of harvest and habitat management, we examined equilibrium population conditions for pintail at the continental scale across a range of harvest rates while perturbing model parameters to represent: (1) a 10% increase in breeding habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population (PR); and (2) a 10% increase in nonbreeding habitat quantity along in the Gulf Coast (GC). Based on our model and analysis, a greater increase in carrying capacity and sustainable harvest was seen when increasing a proxy for habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population. This finding and underlying assumptions must be critically evaluated, however, before specific management recommendations can be made. To make such recommendations, we require (1) extended, refined submodels with additional parameters linking influences of habitat management and environmental conditions to key life-history parameters; (2) a formal sensitivity analysis of the revised model; (3) an integrated population model that incorporates empirical data for estimating key vital rates; and (4) cost estimates for changing these additional parameters through habitat management efforts. We foresee great utility in using an integrated modeling approach to predict habitat and harvest management influences on continental-scale population responses while explicitly considering putative effects of climate change. Such a model could be readily adapted for management of many habitat-limited species.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2021

Dynamic Energy Budget modelling to predict eastern oyster growth, reproduction, and mortality under river management and climate change scenarios

Eastern oysters growing in deltaic Louisiana estuaries in the northern Gulf of Mexico must tolerate considerable salinity variation from natural climate variability (e.g., rainfall and stream run-off pushing isohalines offshore; tropical storms pushing isohalines inshore) and man-made diversions and siphons releasing freshwater from the Mississippi River. These salinity variations are predicted to increase with future climate change because of the increased frequency of stronger storms and also in response to proposed large-scale river diversions. Increased Mississippi River flow into coastal estuaries from river diversions, along with potential changes in rainfall and stream run-off from climate change will alter spatial and temporal salinity patterns. In this study we used an individual Dynamic Energy Budget model to predict growth and reproductive potential of eastern oysters across observed and simulated salinity gradients corresponding to different climate and river management scenarios. We used validated model outputs of salinity from a coupled hydrology-hydrodynamic model to assess the current impacts of Davis Pond diversion discharge on oysters located downstream. Under a high diversion discharge scenario oyster growth potential was reduced by 9%, 4%, and 1% in Upper, Mid, and Lower Bay locations, respectively, as compared to a limited discharge year. Reproductive outputs decreased by 34% and 2% in the Upper and Lower Bay locations, respectively, and increased by 2% at the Mid Bay site. In scenarios combining predicted increased temperature with the effect of diversions, all oysters located in the Upper and Mid Bay sites died due to severe summer conditions (high temperatures combined with low salinity). Overall, oysters in down-estuary locations, influenced by both estuarine river management and gulf conditions demonstrated significant tolerance to changing salinity and temperature conditions from diversions alone and when combined with climate change. In contrast, oysters located up-estuary, and exposed to more extreme salinity impacts from river management, demonstrated potentially lethal impacts through direct mortality, and reduced sustainability through decrease in reproductive effort. These predictions at the individual level may translate into less sustainable populations in the most extreme scenarios; restoration and production plans would benefit from accounting for these impacts on reproductive output particularly as decision makers seek to restore critical oyster areas.

Louisiana↗

USGS2024

Improving crop-specific groundwater use estimation in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain: Implications for integrated remote sensing and machine learning approaches in data-scarce regions

Study region The Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) in the United States (US). Study focus Understanding local-scale groundwater use, a critical component of the water budget, is necessary for implementing sustainable water management practices. The MAP is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the US and extracts more than 11 km 3 /year for irrigation activities. Consequently, groundwater-level declines in the MAP region pose a substantial challenge to water sustainability, and hence, we need reliable groundwater pumping monitoring solutions to manage this resource appropriately. New hydrological insights for the region We incorporate remote sensing datasets and machine learning to improve an existing lookup table-based model of groundwater use previously developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Here, we employ Distributed Random Forests, an ensemble machine learning algorithm to predict annual and monthly groundwater use (2014–2020) throughout this region at 1-km resolution, using pumping data from existing flowmeters in the Mississippi Delta. Our model compares favorably with the existing USGS model, with higher R 2 (0.51 compared to 0.42 in the previous model), and lower root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE)— 0.14 m and 0.09 m, respectively in our model, compared to 0.15 m and 0.1 m in the previous model. Therefore, this work advances our ability to predict groundwater use in regions with scarce or limited in-situ groundwater withdrawal data availability.

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies↗

USGS2015

Two magma bodies beneath the summit of Kilauea Volcano unveiled by isotopically distinct melt deliveries from the mantle

The summit magma storage reservoir of Kīlauea Volcano is one of the most important components of the magmatic plumbing system of this frequently active basaltic shield-building volcano. Here we use new high-precision Pb isotopic analyses of Kīlauea summit lavas—from 1959 to the active Halema‘uma‘u lava lake—to infer the number, size, and interconnectedness of magma bodies within the volcano's summit reservoir. From 1971 to 1982, the 206 Pb/ 204 Pb ratios of the lavas define two separate magma mixing trends that correlate with differences in vent location and/or pre-eruptive magma temperature. These relationships, which contrast with a single magma mixing trend for lavas from 1959 to 1968, indicate that Kīlauea summit eruptions since at least 1971 were supplied from two distinct magma bodies. The locations of these magma bodies are inferred to coincide with two major deformation centers identified by geodetic monitoring of the volcano's summit region: (1) the main locus of the summit reservoir &sim;2–4 km below the southern rim of Kīlauea Caldera and (2) a shallower magma body <2 km below the eastern rim of Halema‘uma‘u pit crater. Residence time modeling suggests that the total volume of magma within Kīlauea's summit reservoir during the late 20th century (1959–1982) was exceedingly small (&sim;0.1–0.5 km 3 ). Voluminous Kīlauea eruptions, such as the ongoing, 32-yr old Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō rift eruption (>4 km 3 of lava erupted), must therefore be sustained by a nearly continuous supply of new melt from the mantle. The model results show that a minimum of four compositionally distinct, mantle-derived magma batches were delivered to the volcano (at least three directly to the summit reservoir) since 1959. These melt inputs correlate with the initiation of energetic (1959 Kīlauea Iki) and/or sustained (1969–1974 Mauna Ulu, 1983-present Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō and 2008-present Halema‘uma‘u) eruptions. Thus, Kīlauea's eruptive behavior is partly tied to the delivery of new magma batches from the volcano's source region within the Hawaiian mantle plume.

Hawaii↗

USGS2018

Coastal knickpoints and the competition between fluvial and wave-driven erosion on rocky coastlines

Active margin coastlines are distinguished by rock erosion that acts in two different directions: waves erode the coast horizontally or landwards, a process that creates sea cliffs; and rivers and streams erode the landscape vertically via channel incision. The relative rates of each process exert a dominant control on coastline morphology. Using a model of river channel incision and sea-cliff retreat, we explore how terrestrial and marine erosion compete to shape coastal topography, and specifically what conditions encourage the development of coastal knickpoints (i.e., a river or stream channels that end at a raised sea-cliff edge). We then compare results to actual landscapes. Model results and observations show that coastal knickpoint development is strongly dependent on drainage basin area, where knickpoints typically occur in drainage basins smaller than 5 × 10 5 –6 × 10 6 m 2 , as well as channel geometry and sea-cliff retreat rate. In our study area, coastal knickpoints with persistent flow (waterfalls) are uncommon and form only within a small morphological window when 1) drainage basin area is large enough to sustain steady stream discharge, but not large enough to out-compete sea-cliff formation, 2) sea-cliff retreat is rapid, and 3) channel concavity is low so that channel slopes at the coast are high. This particular geomorphic combination can sustain sea-cliff formation even when streams tap into larger drainage basins with greater discharge and more stream power, and provides an initial explanation of why persistent coastal waterfalls are, along many coastlines, relatively rare features.

California↗

USGS2017

Viscous relaxation of Ganymede's impact craters: Constraints on heat flux

Measurement of crater depths in Ganymede’s dark terrain have revealed substantial numbers of unusually shallow craters indicative of viscous relaxation [see companion paper: Singer, K.N., Schenk, P. M., Bland, M.T., McKinnon, W.B., (2017). Relaxed impact craters on Ganymede: Regional variations and high heat flow. Icarus, submitted]. These viscously relaxed craters provide insight into the thermal history of the dark terrain: the rate of relaxation depends on the size of the crater and the thermal structure of the lithosphere. Here we use finite element simulations of crater relaxation to constrain the heat flux within the dark terrain when relaxation occurred. We show that the degree of viscous relaxation observed cannot be achieved through radiogenic heating alone, even if all of the relaxed craters are ancient and experienced the high radiogenic fluxes present early in the satellite’s history. For craters with diameter ≥ 10 km, heat fluxes of 40–50 mW m -2 − 2 "> can reproduce the observed crater depths, but only if the fluxes are sustained for ∼1 Gyr. These craters can also be explained by shorter-lived “heat pulses” with magnitudes of ∼100 mW m -2 − 2 "> and timescales of 10–100 Myr. At small crater diameters (4 km) the observed shallow depths are difficult to achieve even when heat fluxes as high as 150 mW m -2 − 2 "> are sustained for 1 Gyr. The extreme thermal conditions required to viscously relax small craters may indicate that mechanisms other than viscous relaxation, such as topographic degradation, are also in play at small crater diameters. The timing of the relaxation event(s) is poorly constrained due to the sparsity of adequate topographic information, though it likely occurred in Ganymede’s middle history (neither recently, nor shortly after satellite formation). The consistency between the timing and magnitude of the heat fluxes derived here and those inferred from other tectonic features suggests that a single event caused both Ganymede’s tectonic deformation and its crater relaxation. Future observations should permit more robust determination of the relative timing of the heating event that caused viscous relaxation.

Icarus↗

USGS2016

Managing adaptively for multifunctionality in agricultural systems

The critical importance of agricultural systems for food security and as a dominant global landcover requires management that considers the full dimensions of system functions at appropriate scales, i.e. multifunctionality. We propose that adaptive management is the most suitable management approach for such goals, given its ability to reduce uncertainty over time and support multiple objectives within a system, for multiple actors. As such, adaptive management may be the most appropriate method for sustainably intensifying production whilst increasing the quantity and quality of ecosystem services. However, the current assessment of performance of agricultural systems doesn’t reward ecosystem service provision. Therefore, we present an overview of the ecosystem functions agricultural systems should and could provide, coupled with a revised definition for assessing the performance of agricultural systems from a multifunctional perspective that, when all satisfied, would create adaptive agricultural systems that can increase production whilst ensuring food security and the quantity and quality of ecosystem services. The outcome of this high level of performance is the capacity to respond to multiple shocks without collapse, equity and triple bottom line sustainability. Through the assessment of case studies, we find that alternatives to industrialized agricultural systems incorporate more functional goals, but that there are mixed findings as to whether these goals translate into positive measurable outcomes. We suggest that an adaptive management perspective would support the implementation of a systematic analysis of the social, ecological and economic trade-offs occurring within such systems, particularly between ecosystem services and functions, in order to provide suitable and comparable assessments. We also identify indicators to monitor performance at multiple scales in agricultural systems which can be used within an adaptive management framework to increase resilience at multiple scales.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2016

To manage inland fisheries is to manage at the social-ecological watershed scale

Approaches to managing inland fisheries vary between systems and regions but are often based on large-scale marine fisheries principles and thus limited and outdated. Rarely do they adopt holistic approaches that consider the complex interplay among humans, fish, and the environment. We argue that there is an urgent need for a shift in inland fisheries management towards holistic and transdisciplinary approaches that embrace the principles of social-ecological systems at the watershed scale. The interconnectedness of inland fisheries with their associated watershed (biotic, abiotic, and humans) make them extremely complex and challenging to manage and protect. For this reason, the watershed is a logical management unit. To assist management at this scale, we propose a framework that integrates disparate concepts and management paradigms to facilitate inland fisheries management and sustainability. We contend that inland fisheries need to be managed as social-ecological watershed system (SEWS). The framework supports watershed-scale and transboundary governance to manage inland fisheries, and transdisciplinary projects and teams to ensure relevant and applicable monitoring and research. We discuss concepts of social-ecological feedback and interactions of multiple stressors and factors within/between the social-ecological systems. Moreover, we emphasize that management, monitoring, and research on inland fisheries at the watershed scale are needed to ensure long-term sustainable and resilient fisheries.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2021

Enhancing Great Lakes coastal ecosystems research by initiating engagement between scientists and decision-makers

A disconnect between scientific research and environmental management communities can be a detriment to both. In the case of Great Lakes coastal ecosystems, which are inherently complex and subject to uncertain effects of future climatic, environmental, and anthropogenic drivers, greater collaboration could be beneficial to their sustainability. We capture the challenges and opportunities identified by a scientist/decision-maker co-production workshop focused on the future environmental quality of Great Lakes coastal wetlands. We explain our path through the stakeholder workshop process, our challenges in translating meeting outcomes into actionable items, and lessons learned to bridge gaps between scientists and decision-makers. Additionally, we determine topics and directions identified by decision-makers that can be modeled with existing technologies and others that require further research. These topics may be incorporated into future research efforts and could serve as a shortlist of research priorities that were identified by decision-makers working with coastal wetland issues. Based on lessons learned during and after the workshop, we provide suggestions for bridging the gap between researchers and decision-makers, including sustained engagement between these groups and improved interaction through the beginning, duration, and end of research and/or management efforts.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2024

Evaluating seawater intrusion forecast uncertainty under climate change in the Pajaro Valley, California

Climate change and climate variability impacts such as rising sea levels have the potential to exacerbate seawater intrusion and the strain on coastal freshwater resources in already stressed groundwater basins such as those in the Pajaro Valley groundwater basin, California. Regional hydrologic models are often coupled with climate projections to forecast future hydrologic conditions and inform adaptive resources management strategies. However, there is high uncertainty in the future projections of water resources due to uncertainties from downscaling global general circulation models (GCMs) to local scale climate change projections, future land use changes, and the inherent uncertainty of developed hydrologic models. Future climate projections and the magnitude of their influence on modeled hydrologic drivers are highly variable. Therefore, to develop a forecast model, an ensemble of different projections can be used to capture a wider range of basin responses and the associated uncertainties in the modeled forecasts. Understanding the reliability and uncertainty of forecasts is important for developing climate adaptation strategies such as developing protective thresholds, particularly at the basin scale where the impacts are felt, and adaptation is implemented. To demonstrate this, an uncertainty analysis of groundwater level and seawater intrusion forecasts for the Pajaro Valley groundwater basin was performed using an ensemble of three future climate projections with the Pajaro Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (PVIHM) and the first-order second moment (FOSM) method. FOSM uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasts across a multi-GCM climate ensemble provides an upper and lower bound of potential impacts of climate change on sustainability targets related to mitigating seawater intrusion. The groundwater level forecasts’ narrow range of variability can help policymakers in adaptation planning by constraining possible outcomes to a focused range for risk-management decisions. However, less than one-third of groundwater level forecasts met the current protection thresholds to prevent chronic lowering of groundwater. Therefore, sustainability targets may need to be reassessed. Relative to groundwater level changes, the seawater intrusion forecasts had larger uncertainty due to the GCM climate projections and the simulated hydrologic response that were compounded by the propagation of scaling and bias from the GCMs and model simplifications in simulating the coastal boundary.

California↗

USGS2019

Globally detected volcanic lightning and umbrella dynamics during the 2014 eruption of Kelud, Indonesia

Volcanic lightning shows considerable promise as a monitoring and research tool to characterize explosive eruptions. Its key strengths are rapid and remote detection, because the radio signals produced by lightning can propagate thousands of km at the speed of light. Despite these tantalizing properties, the scientific work on volcanic lightning has only recently started gaining momentum. Much more is needed to understand what lightning reveals about the evolution of an eruption in near-real time. Here we examine the timing and energy release of lightning generated by the eruption of Kelud volcano in Indonesia on 13 February 2014, as detected by the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). The eruption column reached at least 26 km above sea level, representing the highest plume since the advent of global lightning networks in the last decade. Therefore, it provides valuable constraints on the electrification of end-member, sustained Plinian columns. We investigate the lightning in context with satellite images, photographs, and other published studies. Results show that the earliest satellite-detected activity was a thermal anomaly at ~15:46 UTC, corresponding to a directed blast at the onset of eruption (and only a few lightning strokes). Following a brief pause, the eruption produced a sustained column and umbrella cloud that spread outward into the tropical stratosphere. Rates of umbrella expansion provide an average mass eruption rate (MER) in the range of 8 × 10 7 –1 × 10 8 kg s −1 . A more nuanced picture emerges from the time-varying MERs (determined between each satellite pass), which show rapid intensification during the first hour of eruption, followed by constant MER for about an hour, and waning toward the end (after ~17:50 UTC). At this stage, decreasing flux into the umbrella cloud coincides with column instability and formation of pyroclastic density currents, as recorded by photos from the ground ~17:45 UTC. We infer that some of the erupted mass partitioned into ground-hugging currents, leading to a lower apparent MER. Interestingly, there is not a 1:1 correlation between lightning intensity and MER over the course of eruption. Stroke rates increase sharply within the first 30–40 min (during rapid intensification of the plume), and then drop below 2 strokes per min once the MER remains constant. This suggests that electrification was controlled by the rate of increase in MER—in other words, the acceleration of particles out of the vent. We also show that lightning stroke-rates and energies are greatest within 50 km of the vent, even when the ash cloud extends >200 km downwind, indicating that lightning was focused in the regions of highest particle concentration and turbulence. Overall, we conclude that abrupt changes in lightning rates are clearly linked to changes in eruption behavior, and that rapid detection could aid monitoring efforts to characterize eruption rates or styles.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2020

Application of airborne LiDAR and GIS in modeling trail erosion along the Appalachian Trail, New Hampshire, USA

Recreational activities can negatively affect protected area landscapes and resources and soil erosion is frequently cited as the most significant long-term impact to recreational trails. Comprehensive modeling of soil loss on trails can identify influential factors that managers can manipulate to design and manage more sustainable trails. Field measurements assessed soil loss as the mean vertical depth along 135 trail transects across the Appalachian Trail sampled along three 5km trail segments in the White Mountains National Forest of New Hampshire. Using LiDAR data to accurately measure terrain characteristics that influence trail erosion can improve predictive models of trail system soil loss. Borrowing from geomorphic and agricultural soil erosion models, this study evaluated a variety of terrain and hydrology characteristics to model trail soil loss at three spatial scales: transect, trail corridor, and watershed. The model for each spatial scale and a combined model are presented. The adjusted R2 explaining variation in soil loss is 0.57 using variables from all spatial scales, a substantial improvement on previous trail erosion models. Environmental and trail design factors such as slope and watershed flow length were found to be significantly correlated to soil loss and have implications for sustainable trail design and management.

New Hampshire↗