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USGS2019

Exposure and potential effects of pesticides and pharmaceuticals in protected streams of the US National Park Service southeast Region

Globally protected areas offer refugia for a broad range of taxa including threatened and endangered species. The United States National Park Service (NPS) manages public lands to preserve biodiversity, but increasing park visitation and development of surrounding landscapes increase exposure to and effects from bioactive contaminants. The risk (exposure and hazard) to NPS protected-stream ecosystems within the highly urbanized southeast region (SER) from bioactive contaminants was assessed in five systems based on 334 pesticide and pharmaceutical analytes in water and 119 pesticides in sediment. Contaminant mixtures were common across all sampled systems, with approximately 24% of the unique analytes (80/334) detected at least once and 15% (49/334) detected in half of the surface-water samples. Pharmaceuticals were observed more frequently than pesticides, consistent with riparian buffers and concomitant spatial separation from non-point pesticide sources in four of the systems. To extrapolate exposure data to biological effects space, site specific cumulative exposure-activity ratios (ΣEAR) were calculated for detected surface-water contaminants with available ToxCast data; common exceedances of a 0.001 ΣEAR effects-screening threshold raise concerns for molecular toxicity and possible, sub-lethal effects to non-target, aquatic vertebrates. The results illustrate the need for continued management of protected resources to reduce contaminant exposure and preserve habitat quality, including prioritization of conservation practices (riparian buffers) near stream corridors and increased engagement with upstream/up-gradient property owners and municipal wastewater facilities.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, ↗

USGS2020

Resolving selenium exposure risk: Spatial, temporal, and tissue-specific variability of an endemic fish in a large, dynamic estuary

Estuaries provide critical habitat for a vast array of fish and wildlife but are also a nexus for core economic activities that mobilize and concentrate contaminants that can threaten aquatic species. Selenium (Se), an essential element and potent reproductive toxin, is enriched in parts of the San Francisco Estuary (SFE) to levels known to cause toxicity, yet the risk of Se to species that inhabit the SFE is not well understood. We quantified Se concentrations in muscle, liver and ovary of the demersal cyprinid Sacramento Splittail from six regions in the SFE at three time points to evaluate Se exposure risk. Selenium levels exceeded proposed EPA criteria in ovary and thresholds of concern for liver in 15% and 20%, respectively, of fish collected in the fall of 2010, preceding the discovery of juvenile Splittail displaying a high incidence (>40%) of spinal deformities characteristic of Se toxicity, and again in 2011. No exceedances were detected in muscle tissue. Selenium concentrations varied significantly among regions for muscle (F 5,113 = 20.49, p < 0.0001), liver (F 5,113 = 28.4, p < 0.0001) and ovary (F 5,112 = 19.3, p < 0.0001) but did not vary between the wet and dry years, nor were they influenced by foraging trophic level or prey selection. Foraging location along the salinity gradient, defined by δ 34 S values, explained regional Se exposures in Splittail. Relationships between tissues varied among regions for muscle and liver and muscle and ovary, but a single global relationship could be defined for ovary and liver Se concentrations. Our results suggest that the proposed EPA Se criteria for muscle tissue in Splittail may be under-protective as it would not have predicted exceedances in liver or ovary tissue and that the relationship between muscle tissue and ovary and liver may be Se concentration and seasonal dependent.

California↗

USGS2020

Time scales of arsenic variability and the role of high-frequency monitoring at three water-supply wells in New Hampshire, USA

Groundwater geochemistry, redox process classification, high-frequency physicochemical and hydrologic measurements, and climate data were analyzed to identify controls on arsenic (As) concentration changes. Groundwater was monitored in two public-supply wells (one glacial aquifer and one bedrock aquifer), and one bedrock-aquifer domestic well in New Hampshire, USA, from 2014 to 2018 to identify time scales of and controls on As concentration changes. Concentrations of As and other geochemical constituents were measured bimonthly. Specific conductance (SC), pH, dissolved oxygen, and pumping rate/water level were measured at high frequency (every 5 to 15 min). Median (and 95% confidence interval) As concentrations at the three wells were 4.1 (3.7–4.6), 18.9 (17.2–23.6), and 37.5 (30.4–42.9) μg/L. Arsenic variability in each of the three wells, in relative standard deviation, ranged from 9 to 12%. Median quarterly As concentrations were highest in all wells in the spring. The bedrock-aquifer public-supply well As concentration increased over the period of study while pumping rate decreased. In the public-supply wells, As variability was correlated with SC and pH, and As species were related to SC, pH, pumping, precipitation, and changes in redox process. Specific conductance also had a seasonal pattern in the two public-supply wells and was correlated with Na and Cl. Excess Na in water samples suggests possible ion exchange with dissolved Ca, creating more capacity to dissolve CaCO 3 from calcareous rocks, which can increase pH and in turn, As concentrations in wells. High-frequency monitoring data are cost effective to collect, which could be advantageous in other parts of the United States and in the many parts of the world where glacial aquifers are in direct contact with other water supply aquifers or where water from different aquifers have potential to mix.

New Hampshire↗

USGS2020

The assessment and remediation of mercury contaminated sites: A review of current approaches

Remediation of mercury (Hg) contaminated sites has long relied on traditional approaches, such as removal and containment/capping. Here we review contemporary practices in the assessment and remediation of industrial-scale Hg contaminated sites and discuss recent advances. Significant improvements have been made in site assessment, including the use of XRF to rapidly identify the spatial extent of contamination, Hg stable isotope fractionation to identify sources and transformation processes, and solid-phase characterization (XAFS) to evaluate Hg forms. The understanding of Hg bioavailability for methylation has been improved by methods such as sequential chemical extractions and porewater measurements, including the use of diffuse gradient in thin-film (DGT) samplers. These approaches have shown varying success in identifying bioavailable Hg fractions and further study and field applications are needed. The downstream accumulation of methylmercury (MeHg) in biota is a concern at many contaminated sites. Identifying the variables limiting/controlling MeHg production—such as bioavailable inorganic Hg, organic carbon, and/or terminal electron acceptors (e.g. sulfate, iron) is critical. Mercury can be released from contaminated sites to the air and water, both of which are influenced by meteorological and hydrological conditions. Mercury mobilized from contaminated sites is predominantly bound to particles, highly correlated with total sediment solids (TSS), and elevated during stormflow. Remediation techniques to address Hg contamination can include the removal or containment of Hg contaminated materials, the application of amendments to reduce mobility and bioavailability, landscape/waterbody manipulations to reduce MeHg production, and food web manipulations through stocking or extirpation to reduce MeHg accumulated in desired species. These approaches often rely on knowledge of the Hg forms/speciation at the site, and utilize physical, chemical, thermal and biological methods to achieve remediation goals. Overall, the complexity of Hg cycling allows many different opportunities to reduce/mitigate impacts, which creates flexibility in determining suitable and logistically feasible remedies.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2020

The method controls the story - Sampling method impacts on the detection of pore-water nitrogen concentrations in streambeds

Biogeochemical gradients in streambeds are steep and can vary over short distances often making adequate characterisation of sediment biogeochemical processes challenging. This paper provides an overview and comparison of streambed pore-water sampling methods, highlighting their capacity to address gaps in our understanding of streambed biogeochemical processes. This work reviews and critiques available pore-water sampling techniques to characterise streambed biogeochemical conditions, including their characteristic spatial and temporal resolutions, and associated advantages and limitations. A field study comparing three commonly-used pore-water sampling techniques (multilevel mini-piezometers, miniature drivepoint samplers and diffusive equilibrium in thin-film gels) was conducted to assess differences in observed nitrate and ammonium concentration profiles. Pore-water nitrate concentrations did not differ significantly between sampling methods ( p -value = 0.54) with mean concentrations of 2.53, 4.08 and 4.02 mg l − 1 observed with the multilevel mini-piezometers, miniature drivepoint samplers and diffusive equilibrium in thin-film gel samplers, respectively. Pore-water ammonium concentrations, however, were significantly higher in pore-water extracted by multilevel mini-piezometers (3.83 mg l − 1 ) and significantly lower where sampled with miniature drivepoint samplers (1.05 mg l − 1 , p -values <0.01). Differences in observed pore-water ammonium concentration profiles between active (suction: multilevel mini-piezometers) and passive (equilibrium; diffusive equilibrium in thin-film gels) samplers were further explored under laboratory conditions. Measured pore-water ammonium concentrations were significantly greater when sampled by diffusive equilibrium in thin-film gels than with multilevel mini-piezometers (all p -values ≤0.02). The findings of this study have critical implications for the interpretation of field-based research on hyporheic zone biogeochemical cycling and highlight the need for more systematic testing of sampling protocols. For the first time, the impact of different active and passive pore-water sampling methods is addressed systematically here, highlighting to what degree the choice of pore-water sampling methods affects research outcomes, with relevance for the interpretation of previously published work as well as future studies.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2020

Preferential elution of ionic solutes in melting snowpacks: Improving process understanding through field observations and modeling in the Rocky Mountains

The preferential elution of ions from melting snowpacks is a complex problem that has been linked to temporary acidification of water bodies. However, the understanding of these processes in snowpacks around the world, including the polar regions that are experiencing unprecedented warming and melting, remains limited despite being instrumental in supporting climate change adaptation. In this study, data collected from a snowmelt lysimeter and snowpits at meadow and forest-gap sites in a high elevation watershed in Colorado were combined with the PULSE multi-phase snowpack chemistry model to investigate the controls of meltwater chemistry and preferential elution. The snowdepth at the meadow site was 64% of that at the forest-gap site, and the snowmelt rate was greater there (meadow snowpit) due to higher solar irradiance. Cations such as Ca 2+ and NH 4 + "> 4+ were deposited mostly within the upper layers of both the meadow and forest-gap snowpacks, and acid anions such as NO 3 − "> 3− and SO 4 2 − "> 42− were more evenly distributed. The snow ion concentrations were generally greater at the forest-gap snowpit, except for NH 4 + "> 4+ , which indicates that wind erosion of wet and dry deposited ions from the meadow may have reduced concentrations of residual snow. Furthermore, at the forest-gap site, snow interception and scavenging processes such as sublimation, ventilation, and throughfall led to particular ion enrichment of Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , K + , Cl − , SO 4 2 − "> 42− and NO 3 − "> 3− . Model simulations and observations highlight that preferential elution is enhanced by low snowmelt rates, with the model indicating that this is due to lower dilution rates and increased contact time and area between the percolating meltwater and the snow. Results suggest that low snowmelt rates can cause multiple early meltwater ionic pulses for ions subject to lower ion exclusion. Ion exclusion rates at the grain-size level have been estimated for the first time.

Colorado↗

USGS2020

Estimating burn severity and carbon emissions from a megafire in boreal forests of China

Wildfires, especially those of large size, worsen air quality and alter the carbon cycle through combustion of large quantities of biomass and release of carbon into the atmosphere. The Black Dragon fire, which occurred in 1987 in the boreal forests of China is among the top five of such megafires ever recorded in the world. With over 30 years of accumulation of data and availability of new greenhouse gas emission accounting methods, carbon emissions from this megafire can now be estimated with improved precision and greater spatial resolution. To do this, we combined field and remote sensing data to map four burn severity classes and calculated combustion efficiency in terms of the biomass immediately consumed in the fire. Results of the study showed that 1.30 million hectares burned and 52% of that area burned with high severity. The emitted carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e), accounted for approximately 10% of total fossil fuel emissions from China in 1987, along with CO (2%–3% of annual anthropogenic CO emissions from China) and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) contributing to the atmospheric pollutants. Our study provides an important basis for carbon emission estimation and understanding the impacts of megafires.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2020

Fluxes of agricultural nitrogen and metolachlor metabolites are highly correlated in a first order stream in Maryland, USA

Nitrogen pollution in watersheds containing significant cropland area is generally problematic. Conservation practices intended to reduce nitrate-N (NO3--N) export from watersheds are being implemented by many regions without necessary tools to assess effectiveness of these abatement tools. A commonly used herbicide metolachlor degrades in the vadose zone of croplands to form two metabolites (metolachlor ethane sulfonic acid (MESA) and metolachlor oxanilic acid (MOXA)) which are both highly soluble in soils. Study of metabolite fates in a first order watershed provided evidence that transport of these metabolites to stream water is highly correlated to transport of the agricultural NO3--N that also forms in the cropland vadose zone. Linear models describing the relationships of stream flux of MESA and MOXA to NO3--N flux generated goodness of fit values of 0.93 and 0.82 respectively. These findings support a conclusion that both MESA and MOXA act as excellent transport analogs of NO3- and become strongly correlated to agricultural NO3--N leaching from the cropland vadose zone. Moreover, their use as conservative tracers in agricultural watersheds can provide valuable information concerning movement and fate of agricultural nitrogen at watershed scales of observation.

Maryland↗

USGS2020

Estimation of nonlinear water-quality trends in high-frequency monitoring data

Recent advances in high-frequency water-quality sensors have enabled direct measurements of physical and chemical attributes in rivers and streams nearly continuously. Water-quality trends can be used to identify important watershed-scale changes driven by natural and anthropogenic influences. Statistical methods to estimate trends using high-frequency data are lacking. To address this gap, an evaluation of the generalized additive model (GAM) approach to test for trends in high-frequency data was conducted. Our proposed framework includes methods for handling serial correlation, trend estimation and slope-change detection, and trend interpretation at arithmetic scale for log-transformed variables. Water-temperature and turbidity data, representing two analytes with different temporal patterns, collected from the James River at Cartersville, Virginia, USA, were chosen for this analysis. Results indicated that the model, including flow, season, time covariates, and interaction between flow and season performed well for both analytes. The same model structure was applied to specific conductance data, collected from a small highly urbanized watershed, with satisfactory model performance. The water temperature GAM results indicated that the significant decreasing-then-increasing patterns after 2012 were mainly driven by air temperature changes. The turbidity trend was not significant over time. The specific conductance results showed a consistently upward trend over the last decade due to ever-increasing urbanization in the small watershed. This study suggests that the GAM method has great potential as a useful tool for trend analysis on high-frequency data, and for informing watershed managers of hydro-climatic and human influences on water quality by detecting crucial signal variation over time.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2020

Daily stream samples reveal highly complex pesticide occurrence and potential toxicity to aquatic life

Transient, acutely toxic concentrations of pesticides in streams can go undetected by fixed-interval sampling programs. Here we compare temporal patterns in occurrence of current-use pesticides in daily composite samples to those in weekly composite and weekly discrete samples of surface water from 14 small stream sites. Samples were collected over 10–14 weeks at 7 stream sites in each of the Midwestern and Southeastern United States. Samples were analyzed for over 200 pesticides and degradates by direct aqueous injection liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry. Nearly 2 and 3 times as many unique pesticides were detected in daily samples as in weekly composite and weekly discrete samples, respectively. Based on exceedances of acute-invertebrate benchmarks (AIB) and(or) a Pesticide Toxicity Index (PTI) >1, potential acute-invertebrate toxicity was predicted at 11 of 14 sites from the results for daily composite samples, but was predicted for only 3 sites from weekly composites and for no sites from weekly discrete samples. Insecticides were responsible for most of the potential invertebrate toxicity, occurred transiently, and frequently were missed by the weekly discrete and composite samples. The number of days with benthic-invertebrate PTI ≥0.1 in daily composite samples was inversely related to Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) richness at the sites. The results of the study indicate that short-term, potentially toxic peaks in pesticides frequently are missed by weekly discrete sampling, and that such peaks may contribute to degradation of invertebrate community condition in small streams. Weekly composite samples underestimated maximum concentrations and potential acute-invertebrate toxicity, but to a lesser degree than weekly discrete samples, and provided a reasonable approximation of the 90th percentile total concentrations of herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides, suggesting that weekly composite sampling may be a compromise between assessment needs and cost.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2020

The response of stream ecosystems in the Adirondack region of New York to historical and future changes in atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen

The present-day acid-base chemistry of surface waters can be directly linked to contemporary observations of acid deposition; however, pre-industrial conditions are key to predicting the potential future recovery of stream ecosystems under decreasing loads of atmospheric sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition. The integrated biogeochemical model PnET-BGC was applied to 25 forest watersheds that represent a range of acid sensitivity in the Adirondack region of New York, USA to simulate the response of streams to past and future changes in atmospheric S and N deposition, and calculate the target loads of acidity for protecting and restoring stream water quality and ecosystem health. Using measured data, the model was calibrated and applied to simulate soil and stream chemistry at all study sites. Model hindcasts indicate that historically stream water chemistry in the Adirondacks was variable, but inherently sensitive to acid deposition. The median model-simulated acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) of the streams was projected to be 55 μeq L −1 before the advent of anthropogenic acid deposition (~1850), decreasing to minimum values of 10 μeq L −1 around the year 2000. The median simulated ANC increased to 13 μeq L −1 by 2015 in response to decreases in acid deposition that have occurred over recent decades. Model projections suggest that simultaneous decreases in sulfate, nitrate and ammonium deposition are more effective in restoring stream ANC than individual decreases in sulfur or nitrogen deposition. However, the increases in stream ANC per unit equivalent decrease in S deposition is greater compared to decreases in N deposition. Using empirical algorithms, fish community density and biomass are projected to increase under several deposition-control scenarios that coincide with increases in stream ANC. Model projections suggest that even under the most aggressive deposition-reduction scenarios, stream chemistry and fisheries will not fully recover from historical acidification by 2200.

New York↗

USGS2020

Estuarine submerged aquatic vegetation habitat provides organic carbon storage across a shifting landscape

Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) thrives across the estuarine salinity gradient providing valuable ecosystem services. Within the saline portion of estuaries, seagrass areas are frequently cited as hotspots for their role in capturing and retaining organic carbon (C org ). Non-seagrass SAV, located in the fresh to brackish estuarine areas, may also retain significant soil C org , yet their role remains unquantified. Given rapidly occurring landscape and salinity changes due to human and natural disturbances, landscape level carbon pool estimates from estuarine SAV habitat blue carbon estimates are needed. We assessed C org stocks in SAV habitat soils from estuarine freshwater to saline habitats (interior deltaic) to saline barrier islands (Chandeleur Island) within the Mississippi River Delta Plain (MRDP), Louisiana, USA. SAV habitats contain C org stocks equivalent to those reported for other estuarine vegetation types (seagrass, salt marsh, mangrove). Interior deltaic SAV C org stocks (231.6 ± 19.5 Mg C org ha −1 ) were similar across the salinity gradient, and significantly higher than at barrier island sites (56.6 ± 10.4 Mg C org ha −1 ). Within the MRDP, shallow water SAV habitat covers up to an estimated 28,000 ha, indicating that soil C org storage is potentially 6.4 ± 0.1 Tg representing an unaccounted C org pool. Extrapolated across Louisiana, and the Gulf of Mexico, this represents a major unaccounted pool of soil C org . As marshes continue to erode, the ability of coastal SAV habitat to offset some of the lost carbon sequestration may be valuable. Our estimates of C org sequestration rates indicated that conversion of eroding marsh to potential SAV habitat may help to offset the reduction of C org sequestration rates. Across Louisiana, we estimated SAV to offset this loss by as much as 79,000 Mg C yr −1 between the 1960s and 2000s.

Louisiana↗

USGS2020

Mixed organic and inorganic tapwater exposures and potential effects in greater Chicago area, USA

Safe drinking water at the point of use (tapwater, TW) is a public-health priority. TW exposures and potential human-health concerns of 540 organics and 35 inorganics were assessed in 45 Chicago area United States (US) homes in 2017. No US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) enforceable Maximum Contaminant Level(s) (MCL) were exceeded in any residential or water treatment plant (WTP) pre-distribution TW sample. Ninety percent (90%) of organic analytes were not detected in treated TW, emphasizing the high quality of the Lake Michigan drinking-water source and the efficacy of the drinking-water treatment and monitoring. Sixteen (16) organics were detected in >25% of TW samples, with about 50 detected at least once. Low-level TW exposures to unregulated disinfection byproducts (DBP) of emerging concern, per/polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), and three pesticides were ubiquitous. Common exceedances of non-enforceable EPA MCL Goal(s) (MCLG) of zero for arsenic [As], lead [Pb], uranium [U]), bromodichloromethane, and tribromomethane suggest potential human health concerns and emphasize the continuing need for improved understanding of cumulative effects of low-concentration mixtures on vulnerable sub-populations. Because DBP dominated TW organics, residential TW concentrations are potentially predictable with expanded pre-distribution DBP monitoring. However, several TW chemicals, notably Pb and several infrequently detected organic compounds, were not readily explained by pre distribution samples, illustrating the need for continued broad inorganic/organic TW characterization to support consumer assessment of acceptable risk and point-of-use treatment options.

Illinois↗

USGS2020

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2020

The relation of geogenic contaminants to groundwater age, aquifer hydrologic position, water type, and redox conditions in Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plain aquifers, eastern and south-central USA

Groundwater age distributions developed from carbon-14 (14C), tritium (3H), and helium-4 (4He) concentrations, along with aquifer hydrologic position, water type, and redox conditions, were compared to geogenic contaminants of concern (GCOC) from 252 public-supply wells in six Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plain unconsolidated-sediment aquifers. Concentrations of one or more GCOCs in 168 (67%) wells exceeded MCLs (maximum contaminant levels), SMCLs (secondary MCLs), or HBSLs (health-based screening levels). Human-health benchmark thresholds (MCLs or HBSLs) were exceeded in 31 (12%) wells, and included 0.8% for fluoride (F), 2.4% for arsenic (As), 4% for lead-210 (210Pb), and 4.8% for polonium-210 (210Po). Values of pH increase with age and were outside the SMCL in 31% of wells (23% < 6.5 and 7.5% > 8.5, SMCL). Among GCOCs with concentrations that increased significantly with groundwater age, the frequency of sentry threshold exceedances (i.e., one-half of MCL, SMCL, or HBSL) included 40% for dissolved solids (DS), 12% for chloride (Cl), 3.6% for F, 4.4% for As, and 9.1% for 210Po. Iron (Fe) concentrations did not correlate with groundwater age but exceeded sentry thresholds in 29% of wells. Groundwater age, water types, redox, pH, and GCOCs varied because of unique hydrogeologic features of the aquifers (recharge locations and geometry). As expected, primarily confined aquifers had young, oxic, low to near-neutral pH water near the outcrop (recharge area), and older, reduced, high pH water deeper and farther along flow paths. However, unique aquifer hydrogeologic conditions, such as multiple-recharge zones produced anomalous patterns of young and old groundwater at varying depths and locations along flow paths. Evidence for this variability is seen in disequilibrium patterns in the progression of the chemical evolution of groundwater with hydrologic position. When hydrogeologic differences are considered, groundwater age combined with hydrologic-position data, can provide a strong basis for inferring potential occurrence of GCOCs.

Gulf Coastal Plain aquifers↗

USGS2020

Economic, land use, and ecosystem services impacts of Rwanda's Green Growth Strategy: An application of the IEEM+ESM platform

We develop and link the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform to ecosystem services modeling (ESM). The IEEM+ESM Platform is an innovative decision-making framework for exploring complex public policy goals and elucidating synergies and trade-offs between alternative policy portfolios. The IEEM+ESM approach is powerful in its ability to shed light on (i) change in land use and ecosystem services driven by public policy and the supply and demand responses of businesses and households; and (ii) impacts on standard economic indicators of concern to Ministries of Finance such as gross domestic product and employment, as well as changes in wealth and ecosystem services. The IEEM+ESM approach is being adopted rapidly and by the end of 2020, IEEM+ESM Platforms will be implemented for about 25 countries. To demonstrate the insights generated by the IEEM+ESM approach, we apply it to the analysis of alternative green growth strategies in Rwanda, a country that has made strong progress in reducing poverty and enhancing economic growth in the last 15 years. The case of Rwanda is particularly compelling as it faces intense pressure on its natural capital base and ecosystem services, already with the highest population density in Africa, which is projected to double by 2050. In applying IEEM+ESM and comparing the outcomes of Rwanda’s green growth policies, increasing fertilization of agricultural crops shows the largest economic gains but also trade-offs in environmental quality reflected through higher nutrient export and reduced water quality. Combining crop fertilization with forest plantations better balances critical ecosystem services and their role in underpinning economic development as Rwanda progresses toward its target of middle-income status by 2035. This application to Rwanda’s green growth strategy demonstrates the value-added of the IEEM+ESM approach in generating results that speak to both economic outcomes and impacts on market and non-market ecosystem services.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2020

Time-dependent accumulation of Cd, Co, Cu, Ni, and Zn in mayfly and caddisfly larvae in experimental streams: Metal sensitivity, uptake pathways, and mixture toxicity

Conceptual and quantitative models were developed to assess time-dependent processes in four sequential experimental stream studies that determined abundances of natural communities of mayfly and caddisfly larvae dosed with single metals (Cd, Co, Cu, Ni, Zn) or multiple metals (Cd+Zn, Co+Cu, Cu+Ni, Cu+Zn, Ni+Zn, Cd+Cu+Zn, Co+Cu+Ni, Cu+Ni+Zn). Metal mixtures contained environmentally relevant metal ratios found in mine drainage. Free metal ion concentrations, accumulation of metals by periphyton, and metal uptake by four families of aquatic insect larvae were either measured (Brachycentridae) or predicted (Ephemerellidae, Heptageniidae, Hydropsychidae) using equilibrium and biodynamic models. Toxicity functions, which included metal accumulations by larvae and metal potencies, were linked to abundances of the insect families. Model results indicated that mayflies accumulated more metal than caddisflies and the relative importance of metal uptake by larvae via dissolved or dietary pathways highly depended on metal uptake rate constants for each insect family and concentrations of metals in food and water. For solution compositions in the experimental streams, accumulations of Cd, Cu, and Zn in larvae occurred primarily through dietary uptake, whereas uptake of dissolved metal was more important for Co and Ni accumulations. Cd, Cu, and Ni were major contributors to toxicity in metal mixtures and for metal ratios examined. Our conceptual approach and quantitative results should aid in designing laboratory experiments and field studies that evaluate metal uptake pathways and metal mixture toxicity to aquatic biota.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2020

Forecasting water demand across a rapidly urbanizing region

Urban growth and climate change together complicate planning efforts meant to adapt to increasingly scarce water supplies. Several studies have independently examined the impacts of urban planning and climate change on water demand, but little attention has been given to their combined impact. Here we forecast urban water demand using a Geographically Weighted Regression model informed by socio-economic, environmental and landscape pattern metrics. The purpose of our study is to evaluate how future scenarios of population densities and climate warming will jointly affect water demand across two rapidly growing U.S. states (North Carolina and South Carolina). Our forecasts indicate that regional water demand by 2065 will increase by 37%–383% relative to the baseline in 2010, across all scenarios of change. Our results show future water demand will increase under rising temperatures, but could be ameliorated by policies that promote higher density development and urban infill. These water-efficient land use policies show a 5% regional reduction in water demand and up to 25% reduction locally for counties with the highest expected population growth by 2065. For rural counties experiencing depopulation, the land use policies we considered are insufficient to significantly reduce water demand. For expanding communities seeking to increase their adaptive capacity to changing socio-environmental conditions, our framework can assist in developing sustainable solutions.

North Carolina, South Carolina↗