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USGS2011

Geologic map of the Ganiki Planitia quadrangle (V-14), Venus

The Ganiki Planitia (V-14) quadrangle on Venus, which extends from 25° N. to 50° N. and from 180° E. to 210° E., derives its name from the extensive suite of plains that dominates the geology of the northern part of the region. With a surface area of nearly 6.5 x 10 6 km 2 (roughly two-thirds that of the United States), the quadrangle is located northwest of the Beta-Atla-Themis volcanic zone and southeast of the Atalanta Planitia lowlands, areas proposed to be the result of large scale mantle upwelling and downwelling, respectively. The region immediately south of Ganiki Planitia is dominated by Atla Regio, a major volcanic rise beneath which localized upwelling appears to be ongoing, whereas the area just to the north is dominated by the orderly system of north-trending deformation belts that characterize Vinmara Planitia. The Ganiki Planitia quadrangle thus lies at the intersection between several physiographic regions where extensive mantle flow-induced tectonic and volcanic processes are thought to have occurred. The geology of the V-14 quadrangle is characterized by a complex array of volcanic, tectonic, and impact-derived features. There are eleven impact craters with diameters from 4 to 64 km, as well as four diffuse 'splotch' features interpreted to be the product of near-surface bolide explosions. Tectonic activity has produced heavily deformed tesserae, belts of complex deformation and rifts as well as a distributed system of fractures and wrinkle ridges. Volcanic activity has produced extensive regional plains deposits, and in the northwest corner of the quadrangle these plains host the initial (or terminal) 700 km of the Baltis Vallis canali, an enigmatic volcanic feature with a net length of ~7,000 km that is the longest channel on Venus. Major volcanic centers in V-14 include eight large volcanoes and eight coronae; all but one of these sixteen features was noted during a previous global survey. The V-14 quadrangle contains an abundance of minor volcanic features including individual shield volcanoes and localized fissure eruptions as well as many small annular structures and domes, which often serve as the source for local lava flows. The topographic and geophysical characteristics of the Ganiki Planitia quadrangle are less complex than the surface geology, but they yield equally valuable information about the region’s formation and evolution. Referenced to the mean planetary radius of 6051.84 km, the average elevation in the quadrangle is -0.26±0.86 km (2σ) with a full range of -2.58 km to 1.85 km. The highest 2.5 percent of elevations in the quadrangle (above 0.60 km) are associated primarily with the major tessera blocks and the peaks of a few volcanic edifices, whereas the lowest 2.5 percent (below -1.12 km) mostly occur within corona interiors and in the northwest corner of the quadrangle where the plains begin to merge into the Atalanta Planitia lowlands. At the ~4.6 km/pixel scale of the topography data, the mean point-to-point topographic slope is 0.63° and topographic slopes greater than 2° cover less than 5 percent of the region. Overall, the topography of the Ganiki Planitia quadrangle can be characterized as flat, low lying, and nearly devoid of abrupt topographic variation. Complementing this gentle topography, the geoid anomaly has a generally linear gradient that decreases north-northwest from a high of ~20 m at the southern edge of the quadrangle (the northern border of the Atla Regio anomaly) to a low of -30 to -40 m along the northern edge (Konopliv and others, 1999). The vertical component of the gravity anomaly varies from ~50 mGal to -40 mGal, and integrated analysis of the gravity and topography data indicates that dynamically supported regions and areas of thickened crust are both present within the quadrangle. Because the Ganiki Planitia quadrangle is a plains-dominated lowland area that lies between several major physiographic provinces (namely, Atla Regio, Atalanta Planitia, and Vinmara Planitia), a geologic map of the region may yield insight into a wide array of important problems in Venusian geology. The current mapping effort and analysis complements previous efforts to characterize aspects of the region’s geology, for example stratigraphy near parabolic halo crater sites, volcanic plains emplacement, wrinkle ridges, volcanic feature distribution, volcano deformation, coronae characteristics, lithospheric flexure, and various features along a 30±7.58° N. geotraverse. Our current research focuses on addressing four specific questions. Has the dominant style of volcanic expression within the quadrangle varied in a systematic fashion over time? Does the tectonic deformation within the quadrangle record significant regional patterns that vary spatially or temporally, and if so what are the scales, orientations and sources of the stress fields driving this deformation? If mantle upwelling and downwelling have played a significant role in the formation of Atla Regio and Atalanta Planitia as has been proposed, does the geology of Ganiki Planitia record evidence of northwest-directed lateral mantle flow connecting the two sites? Finally, can integration of the tectonic and volcanic histories preserved within the quadrangle help constrain competing resurfacing models for Venus?

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS2011

Predominant bacteria isolated from moribund Fusconaia ebena ebonyshells experiencing die-offs in Pickwick Reservoir, Tennessee River, Alabama

Mussel die-offs have been noted in recent years in Pickwick Reservoir, Tennessee River, Alabama. The primary affected species was Fusconaia ebena, but also affected to lesser degrees were Ellipsaria lineolata, Quadrula pustulosa, and Quadrula quadrula. These events were characterized by large numbers of empty shells—fresh-dead and live individuals that were presumed to be diseased because of weak and slow valve closure responses to external stimuli. Anecdotal evidence suggested the possible involvement of an etiological agent, such as a bacterial pathogen. The die-offs have occurred in Pickwick Reservoir (river miles 236–256) in sequential years during the past approximately 10 y. These timeframes have coincided with reduced basin inflows and warmer water temperatures. The majority of the moribund and freshly dead F. ebena were females possibly predisposed to infection and disease from ongoing reproductive activity. Affected and healthy-cohort mussels were collected to characterize the bacterial flora prior to, during, and after a July 2006 die-off, and during a subsequent die-off in September 2008. The numbers of total bacteria from both the 2006 and 2008 die-offs were significantly greater from the diseased specimens. For example, from the September 2008 die-off, the mean count from diseased F. ebena soft tissues was 9.75 × 10 6 cfu/g, which was more than 100 times greater (P = 0.025) than the mean from healthy cohorts (6.74 × 10 4 cfu/g). The predominant bacteria from affected F. ebena from July 2006 were Hafnia alvei and Aeromonas sobria, whereas from September 2008 the predominant bacteria were Enterobacter spp., Aeromonas schubertii, Aeromonas veronii bv. veronii, and Aeromonas veronii bv. sobria.

Alabama↗

USGS2009

Impacts of stormwater runoff in the Southern California Bight: Relationships among plume constituents

The effects from two winter rain storms on the coastal ocean of the Southern California Bight were examined as part of the Bight '03 program during February 2004 and February-March 2005. The impacts of stormwater from fecal indicator bacteria, water column toxicity, and nutrients were evaluated for five major river discharges: the Santa Clara River, Ballona Creek, the San Pedro Shelf (including the Los Angeles, San Gabriel, and Santa Ana Rivers), the San Diego River, and the Tijuana River. Exceedances of bacterial standards were observed in most of the systems. However, the areas of impact were generally spatially limited, and contaminant concentrations decreased below California Ocean Plan standards typically within 2-3 days. The largest bacterial concentrations occurred in the Tijuana River system where exceedances of fecal indicator bacteria were noted well away from the river mouth. Maximum nitrate concentrations (~40 ??M) occurred in the San Pedro Shelf region near the mouth of the Los Angeles River. Based on the results of general linear models, individual sources of stormwater differ in both nutrient concentrations and the concentration and composition of fecal indicator bacteria. While nutrients appeared to decrease in plume waters due to simple mixing and dilution, the concentration of fecal indicator bacteria in plumes depends on more than loading and dilution rates. The relationships between contaminants (nutrients and fecal indicator bacteria) and plume indicators (salinity and total suspended solids) were not strong indicating the presence of other potentially important sources and/or sinks of both nutrients and fecal indicator bacteria. California Ocean Plan standards were often exceeded in waters containing greater than 10% stormwater (<28-30 salinity range). The median concentration dropped below the standard in the 32-33 salinity range (1-4% stormwater) for total coliforms and Enterococcus spp. and in the 28-30 salinity range (10-16% stormwater) for fecal coliforms. Nutrients showed a similar pattern with the highest median concentrations in water with greater than 10% stormwater. Relationships between colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and salinity and between total suspended solids and beam attenuation indicate that readily measurable, optically active variables can be used as proxies to provide at least a qualitative, if not quantitative, evaluation of the distribution of the dissolved, as well as the particulate, components of stormwater plumes. In this context, both CDOM absorption and the beam attenuation coefficient can be derived from satellite ocean color measurements of inherent optical properties suggesting that remote sensing of ocean color should be useful in mapping the spatial areas and durations of impacts from these contaminants. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

Continental Shelf Research↗

USGS2011

Summary of November 2010 meeting to evaluate turbidite data for constraining the recurrence parameters of great Cascadia earthquakes for the update of national seismic hazard maps

This report summarizes a meeting of geologists, marine sedimentologists, geophysicists, and seismologists that was held on November 18–19, 2010 at Oregon State University in Corvallis, Oregon. The overall goal of the meeting was to evaluate observations of turbidite deposits to provide constraints on the recurrence time and rupture extent of great Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquakes for the next update of the U.S. national seismic hazard maps (NSHM). The meeting was convened at Oregon State University because this is the major center for collecting and evaluating turbidite evidence of great Cascadia earthquakes by Chris Goldfinger and his colleagues. We especially wanted the participants to see some of the numerous deep sea cores this group has collected that contain the turbidite deposits. Great earthquakes on the CSZ pose a major tsunami, ground-shaking, and ground-failure hazard to the Pacific Northwest. Figure 1 shows a map of the Pacific Northwest with a model for the rupture zone of a moment magnitude M w 9.0 earthquake on the CSZ and the ground shaking intensity (in ShakeMap format) expected from such an earthquake, based on empirical ground-motion prediction equations. The damaging effects of such an earthquake would occur over a wide swath of the Pacific Northwest and an accompanying tsunami would likely cause devastation along the Pacifc Northwest coast and possibly cause damage and loss of life in other areas of the Pacific. A magnitude 8 earthquake on the CSZ would cause damaging ground shaking and ground failure over a substantial area and could also generate a destructive tsunami. The recent tragic occurrence of the 2011 M w 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake highlights the importance of having accurate estimates of the recurrence times and magnitudes of great earthquakes on subduction zones. For the U.S. national seismic hazard maps, estimating the hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone has been based on coastal paleoseismic evidence of great earthquakes over the past 5,000 years. The instrumental catalog of earthquakes is of little use for constraining the hazard of the CSZ, because there are virtually no recorded earthquakes on most of the plate interface of the CSZ. There are no historical accounts in the past 150 years of large earthquakes on most of the CSZ. Until about 20 years ago, some interpreted this lack of recent and historical earthquakes as an indicator that the subduction zone was slipping aseismically and could not produce a great earthquake. The work of Brian Atwater and others, in the late 1980s and the 1990s (Atwater, 1987, 1992; Atwater and others, 1995; Nelson and others, 1996; Clague, 1997; Atwater and Hemphill-Haley, 1997; Atwater and others, 2004) demonstrated that submerged forests, buried soils, tsunami deposits, and liquefaction along and near the coast were compelling evidence of repeated great Cascadia earthquakes over at least the past 5,000 years. Atwater and Hemphill-Haley (1997) concluded from paleoseismic evidence at Willapa Bay, Washington, that great earthquakes ruptured the CSZ with an average recurrence time of about 500 years. The date of the last great CSZ earthquake, January 26, 1700, was established from historical records of the so-called orphan tsunami in Japan that is inferred to have been produced by this earthquake (Satake and others, 1996, 2003; Atwater and others, 2005) and is consistent with tree-ring data from drowned forests in Washington and Oregon. From modeling the observations of the tsunami, Satake and others (2003) estimated a moment magnitude of about 9.0 for this earthquake. Many other paleoseismic sites have been investigated along the Pacific Northwest coast from Vancouver Island to northern California and show evidence of great CSZ earthquakes. Nelson and others (2006) summarized the dates found from these studies and proposed correlations between sites indicating the extent of rupture for individual events. Dating of inferred tsunami deposits in Bradley Lake, Oregon by Kelsey and others (2005), as well as tsunami and subsidence evidence from Six Rivers, Oregon (Kelsey and others, 2002) and Coquille River (Witter and others, 2003), indicates that there were probably M w 8 ruptures in the southern portion of the CSZ in addition to the M w 9 events that rupture the whole length of the CSZ (Nelson and others, 2006). A parallel development over the past 20 years or more is the use of deep-sea turbidite deposits for identifying and dating great Cascadia earthquakes over the past 10,000 years (Adams, 1990; Goldfinger and others, 2003, 2008, in press; Goldfinger, 2011). Turbidites are sediment deposits in the deep ocean from turbidity currents, which are energetic flows of sediment and water along the continental shelf and slope. Adams (1990), using the counts of turbidites in deep-sea cores off the coast of Oregon and Washington collected and analyzed by Griggs (1969) and Griggs and others (1969), proposed that these turbidites were caused by the shaking of great Cascadia earthquakes. Part of his reasoning was that the number (13) of turbidite deposits that occurred since deposition of the Mazama Ash 7,000 years ago gave a recurrence time of about 500 years, consistent with that derived from the coastal submergence data. Adams (1990) also proposed the “confluence test” which evaluates the number of turbidites for submarine channels that form a confluence. He reported that the number of turbidites in the single downstream channel equaled the number in each of the tributary channels. He reasoned that this indicated that the turbidites in each tributary were simultaneously triggered and were, therefore, caused by a common forcing agent. He concluded that shaking from extended ruptures of great Cascadia earthquakes was the most likely cause of these turbidites. Based on the paleoseismic evidence of past great earthquakes, the hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone was included in the 1996 U.S. NSHM (Frankel and others, 1996), which were the basis for seismic provisions in the 2000 International Building Code. These hazard maps used the paleoseismic studies to constrain the recurrence rate of great CSZ earthquakes. Goldfinger and his colleagues have since collected many more deep ocean cores and done extensive analysis on the turbidite deposits that they identified in the cores (Goldfinger and others, 2003, 2008, in press; Goldfinger, 2011). Using their dating of the sediments and correlation of features in the logs of density and magnetic susceptibility between cores, they developed a detailed chronology of great earthquakes along the CSZ for the past 10,000 years (Goldfinger and others, in press). These correlations consist of attempting to match the peaks and valleys in logs of density and magnetic susceptibility between cores separated, in some cases, by hundreds of kilometers. Based on this work, Goldfinger and others (2003, 2008, in press) proposed that the turbidite evidence indicated the occurrence of great earthquakes (M w 8) that only ruptured the southern portion of the CSZ, as well as earthquakes with about M w 9 that ruptured the entire length of the CSZ. For the southernmost portion of the CSZ, Goldfinger and others (in press) proposed a recurrence time of M w 8 or larger earthquakes of about 230 years. This proposed recurrence time was shorter than the 500 year time that was incorporated in one scenario in the NSHM’s. It is important to note that the hazard maps of 1996 and later also included a scenario or set of scenarios with a shorter recurrence time for M w 8 earthquakes, using rupture zones that are distributed along the length of the CSZ (Frankel and others, 1996; Petersen and others, 2008). Originally, this scenario was meant to correspond to the idea that some of the 500-year averaged ruptures seen in the paleoseismic evidence could have been a series of M w 8 earthquakes that occurred over a short period of time (a few decades), rather than M w 9 earthquakes. Figure 2 shows the logic tree for the CSZ used in the 2008 NSHM’s (Petersen and others, 2008). This logic tree includes whole CSZ rupture earthquakes (M w 8.8–9.2) and partial CSZ rupture earthquakes (M w 8.0–8.7). In this latest version of the NSHM’s, the effective recurrence time of earthquakes on the CSZ with moment magnitudes greater than or equal to 8.0 over the various models is about 270 years (Petersen and others, 2008). This recurrence time applies to the entire CSZ, so that the hazard from great earthquakes was approximately equal along the whole zone, although the hazard estimates taper on the northern and southern ends of the CSZ, because of the way rupture zones of M w 8 earthquakes were distributed along the strike of the CSZ. The NSHM will be updated in 2013, as part of the standard update cycle that corresponds to the update cycle of the national model building codes that are based on the seismic hazard maps. A meeting was necessary to assemble a wide group of experts to hear Dr. Goldfinger explain his methodology for dating and correlating the turbidites and for developing the earthquake chronology. The overall goal of the workshop was to evaluate observations of turbidite deposits to provide constraints on the recurrence times and rupture extents of great Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes for the next update of the NSHM. Before the meeting, participants were supplied with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper of Goldfinger and others (in press), as well as material from Brian Atwater and Alan Nelson. The agenda of the meeting was developed by Art Frankel, with assistance from Chris Goldfinger, Brian Atwater, Alan Nelson, Mark Petersen, and Craig Weaver. The meeting was hosted by Chris Goldfinger of Oregon State University. We stress that it is difficult to evaluate in a two-day meeting the large amount of work that Goldfinger and his colleagues have done over the past 15 years or more. This meeting is the first step in a process that develops the inputs to the update of the national maps. The conclusions of this workshop will be discussed and possibly modified at the regional Pacific Northwest workshop for the hazard maps to be held in early 2012. Vetting new research results using informed expert opinion is an integral part of updating the national maps and does not reflect on the veracity of these results.

Cascadia↗

USGS2015

Real-time validation of the Dst Predictor model

The Dst Predictor model, which has been running real-time in the Space Weather Analysis and Forecast System (SWAFS), provides 1-hour and 4-hour forecasts of the Dst index. This is useful for awareness of impending geomagnetic activity, as well as driving other real-time models that use Dst as an input. In this report, we examine the performance of this forecast model in detail. When validating indices it should be noted that performance is only with respect to a reference index as they are derived quantities assumed to reﬂect a state of the magnetosphere that cannot be directly measured. In this case U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Deﬁnitive Dst is the reference index (Section 3). Whether or not the model better reﬂects the actual activity level is nearly impossible to discern and is outside the scope of this report. We evaluate the performance of the model by computing continuous predictant skill scores against USGS Deﬁnitive Dst values as “observations” (Section 4.2). The two sets of data are not well-correlated for both 1-hour and 4-hour forecasts. The Dst Predictor Prediction Efﬁciency for both the 1- and 4-hour forecasts suggests poor performance versus the climatological mean. However, the skill score against a nowcast persistence model is positive, suggesting value added by the Dst Predictor model. We further examine statistics for storm times (Section 4.3) with similar results: nowcast persistence performs worse than Dst Predictor. Dst Predictor is superior to the nowcast persistence model for the metric used in this study. We recommend continued use of the DstPredictor model for 1-and4-hour Dst predictions along with active study of other Dst forecast models that do not rely on nowcast inputs (Section 6). The lack of certiﬁed requirements makes further recommendations difﬁcult. A study of how the error in Dst translates to error in models and a better understanding of operational needs for magnetic storm warning are needed to determine such requirements. Nowcast persistence is often hard to beat for short term forecasts and speciﬁcation and Dst Predictor clearly performs well against that standard (with 1-hour and 4-hour skill-scores of 0.233 and 0.485 respectively), although poor in absolute terms (with1-hourand4-hour prediction efﬁciencies of-64.6and-43.1, respectively).

Air Force Research Laboratory Technical Report↗

USGS2012

Order and diversity in the modes of circum-Pacific earthquake recurrence

Recurrence characteristics of great circum-Pacific earthquakes and determinations of spatial distribution of seismic moment release are surveyed in order to delineate their general features and relate earthquake slip distribution to models of recurrent rupture. As noted by others, the pattern of moment release is typically very irregular, with strong concentrations in a few isolated regions of a much larger aftershock zone. Despite this complexity, rupture nucleation is notably systematic, with mainshock epicenter showing a strong tendency to locate in or immediately adjacent to identified regions of high moment release. This generalization suggests that earthquake recurrence is more likely to be controlled by maximum rather than average fault slip. Well-documented case histories from twelve plate boundary regions demonstrate that seismic strain release tends to be temporally well-ordered, while source dimensions, slip, and cumulative moment release vary considerably from cycle to cycle. On none of the segments studied do earthquakes consistently recur in nearly identical events. Instead, individual great earthquakes differ significantly from cycle to cycle or rerupture takes place in a sequence of two or more smaller events. Despite these differences the duration of the seismic cycle is approximately uniform. Furthermore, when strain release occurs in a sequence of large earthquakes, these events take place towards the end of the cycle and occur with increasing rupture length and magnitude. These ordered and irregular features of earthquake recurrence argue for the existence of corresponding elements on plate boundary faults. The ordered characteristics are identified with zones of concentrated moment release that slip comparable amounts in each cycle and have high shear strength. The irregular features are associated with intervening weaker regions that move in response to the stress concentration of dynamic rupture and slip by differing amounts in each event. Although these mechanistic associations are indirect and tentative, the features of recurrent behavior documented here have implications for long-term earthquake hazard assessment that are not dependent on the models proposed to explain them. Chief among these are the cycle-to-cycle differences among gap-filling events and the absence of shocks that fill major slip-deficient regions early in the seismic cycle.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2020

Documentation of Surface Fault Rupture and Ground‐Deformation Features Produced by the 4 and 5 July 2019 Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

The M w "> M w Mw 6.4 and M w "> M w Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence occurred on 4 and 5 July 2019 within the eastern California shear zone of southern California. Both events produced extensive surface faulting and ground deformation within Indian Wells Valley and Searles Valley. In the weeks following the earthquakes, more than six dozen scientists from government, academia, and the private sector carefully documented the surface faulting and ground‐deformation features. As of December 2019, we have compiled a total of more than 6000 ground observations; approximately 1500 of these simply note the presence or absence of fault rupture or ground failure, but the remainder include detailed descriptions and other documentation, including tens of thousands of photographs. More than 1100 of these observations also include quantitative field measurements of displacement sense and magnitude. These field observations were supplemented by mapping of fault rupture and ground‐deformation features directly in the field as well as by interpreting the location and extent of surface faulting and ground deformation from optical imagery and geodetic image products. We identified greater than 68 km of fault rupture produced by both earthquakes as well as numerous sites of ground deformation resulting from liquefaction or slope failure. These observations comprise a dataset that is fundamental to understanding the processes that controlled this earthquake sequence and for improving earthquake hazard estimates in the region. This article documents the types of data collected during postearthquake field investigations, the compilation effort, and the digital data products resulting from these efforts.

California↗

USGS2022

Multi-decadal sandbar response to flow management downstream from a large dam—The Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River in Marble and Grand Canyons, Arizona

Sandbars are an important resource in the Colorado River corridor in Marble and Grand Canyons, Arizona, downstream from Glen Canyon Dam. Sandbars provide aquatic and riparian habitat and are used as campsites by river runners and hikers. The study area is the Colorado River between Glen Canyon Dam and Diamond Creek, which is about 388 kilometers (241 miles) downstream from the dam. Closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963 and subsequent flow regulation reduced the sediment supply, limited the magnitude and frequency of floods, and increased the magnitude of baseflows. The result has been widespread erosion of sandbars and expansion of native and non-native vegetation on previously bare sand deposits in this debris-fan dominated canyon river. This study reports on the on-going long-term measurement program of Northern Arizona University, initiated in 1990 with the Bureau of Reclamation, and now also with the U.S. Geological Survey’s Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center. We report on all sandbar measurements made between 1990 and 2020 to demonstrate the multi-decadal response of the sandbar monitoring sites resulting from flow regulation by Glen Canyon Dam. Because only one study site is located in Glen Canyon, the 25 kilometer (15.5 miles) reach just below Glen Canyon Dam, analyses of sandbar response are only made for the next two canyon segments in the down-river direction, Marble Canyon (388 kilometers [99 miles]) and Grand Canyon (265 kilometers [165 miles]), respectively, where the majority of study sites are located. We show that a majority of monitoring sites increased in volume during a period of frequent controlled floods intended to rebuild sandbars. In the period from 2004 to 2020, which included seven controlled floods, a median discharge of 350 cubic meters per second (m 3 /s), and greater than average tributary sand inputs in more than half of the years, net deposition occurred at 86 percent of long-term monitoring sites. This period was preceded by a period of net erosion (1990–2003) when there was one controlled flood greater than the nominal powerplant capacity of 940 m 3 /s. During this period the median discharge from Glen Canyon Dam was 376 m 3 /s and greater than average sand inputs occurred in only 36 percent of those years. At the end of the monitoring period in 2020, 61 percent of the study sites measured since 1990 underwent a net increase in sand volume. For the entire 31-year period, these trends were statistically significant for all six sandbar types studied, indicating that increased frequency of controlled flooding maintained sandbar volume at the majority of sites monitored. These floods, also referred to as high-flow experiments (HFEs), are part of a decision-making protocol approved in 2012 for coordinating dam releases timed to occur following large sand inputs to the Colorado River by a major tributary. These findings are based on digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from approximately (~)1,800 repeat surveys of sandbar and channel bed topography made annually, or more frequently, at the 45 long-term monitoring sites, of which 31 have been monitored since 1990 and 14 were added between 1990 and 2008. This large collection of monitoring sites comprises just 7 to 9 percent of all sandbars in Marble and Grand Canyons, respectively. Nevertheless, when compared with measurements of a larger sample, these sites provide consistent characterization of average sandbar response, despite the local variability in channel and debris fan geometry. We use sand volume and normalized sand volume for tracking geomorphic changes of sandbars, because these metrics are sensitive to both changes in sandbar area and sandbar elevation. Based on checkpoint comparisons and repeat measurements, DEM elevation uncertainty was determined to be ±0.05 meter (m) and this uncertainty was used in a spatially uniform estimate of volume uncertainty. We find that the magnitudes of the topographic changes were substantially greater than the measurement uncertainty. Sandbars of similar type throughout both Marble and Grand Canyons have responded similarly during the period of the HFE protocol, despite variations in sand supply and longitudinal extent of those inputs. It should be noted that tributary-supplied sand to Glen Canyon is negligible, much of the riverbed is now armored with cobbles, and the channel bed degradation is irreversible in the current flow and sediment supply regime. Because all these HFEs have been conducted during periods of sediment enrichment, other factors such as vegetation and geomorphic setting are likely the primary causes of variation among the monitoring sites. A larger percentage of the sandbar population, predominantly located in narrow reaches where stage changes are greater, is composed of sandbar types that remain dynamic and consistently aggrade during HFEs. In contrast, wide reaches of the river corridor where stage change is not as great are characterized by sandbars that have been stabilized by vegetation and progressive aggradation during floods. In the former case, a majority of sandbars are likely to remain dynamic, requiring continued use of HFEs to achieve desired management goals. In the latter case, HFEs can do no better than replace the sediment eroded during normal dam operation between high-flow events, as they become less effective because of a diminishing amount of accommodation space available for deposition. Long-term sandbar trajectory and the continued effectiveness of HFEs are related to the differential vegetation establishment at each bar type. Future sandbar monitoring may need to consider the effects of riparian vegetation removal.

Arizona↗

USGS2021

A reassessment of Chao2 estimates for population monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee (YES) asked the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) to re-assess a technique used in annual population estimation and trend monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). This technique is referred to as the Chao2 approach and estimates the number of females with cubs-of-the-year (hereafter, females with cubs) and, in association with other demographic data, is used by the IGBST to produce annual population estimates. Females with cubs are an easily recognizable population segment, and trends for this reproductive segment of the population are assumed to be representative of trend for the entire population. The overarching objective of the analyses presented in this report was to provide a more accurate representation of the GYE grizzly bear population using the current methodologies in place. Specifically, we addressed two limitations of the current Chao2 approach: 1) underestimation bias associated with a distance criterion used to differentiate annual sightings of females with cubs into unique individuals and 2) limitations of the model-averaging approach to effectively distinguish among potential future population trajectories (decline, stability, and growth). The first issue addressed in this report is the underestimation bias associated with the rule set that Knight et al. (1995) developed to differentiate sightings of females with cubs into unique individuals (i.e., unique family groups). The rule set was originally designed to be conservative by reducing the risk of identifying more females with cubs than actually existed, primarily through use of a distance criterion of 30 km to separate sightings of unique females. This approach resulted in an underestimation bias, and previous research demonstrated that this bias increases with increasing number of females with cubs. Using location data from radio-marked females with cubs, we evaluated alternative distance criteria by simulating scenarios with varying numbers of true females with cubs and sightings. Findings from these analyses demonstrate that bias in estimates of females with cubs can be substantially reduced by changing the 30-km distance criterion in the rule set to 16 km, which produced relatively unbiased estimates. Findings also indicate, however, the importance of adaptability with regard to the distance criteria because of the complex relationships and biases among the various parameters involved in estimation of unique females with cubs. The total number of annual sightings and the true number of females with cubs play particularly important roles. Whereas these analyses remind us that there is no perfect approach to estimating the number of females with cubs from sightings under various scenarios, they provide us with new tools to determine when and how to adapt the monitoring program. The second issue we were tasked to investigate was the potential for improvement of the technique referred to as model-averaging, which serves to smooth relatively high variation in annual estimates. This technique was chosen by YES as the basis for monitoring the Yellowstone grizzly bear population, as described in the 2016 Conservation Strategy. This choice was made in part because the technique has been well documented and population estimates derived from counts of females with cubs are conservative. Using simulations of population trends, we demonstrate why the model-averaging technique currently used cannot distinguish between plausible future trend scenarios. As a suitable alternative to model averaging, we propose the use of generalized additive models (GAMs). Using a suite of simulated trend dynamics relevant to management, we demonstrate GAM performance for tracking trends in females with cubs within the context of the annual monitoring program. We demonstrate the ability to not only document directional changes in population trend but also patterns of stabilization or resiliency after such changes. Furthermore, the proposed monitoring framework provides objective measures useful for early detection of directional changes in trend. The new framework is flexible, allowing retrospective analysis of Chao2-based estimates and future applications to time series of other population metrics, such as vital rates. The aforementioned updates provide us with new tools to determine when and how to adapt the monitoring program. Within the context of current monitoring protocols and effort, and considering the full suite of simulations presented in this report and previous studies, the IGBST plans to incorporate the following changes to the population monitoring protocol: 1) modify the distance criterion, starting with 16 km under current sampling conditions and 2) revise the population monitoring framework using GAMs as the basis for smoothing of annual estimates and detecting trends and changes in trend. Implementation of the 16-km distance criterion combined with use of GAM techniques would affect some of the population metrics (e.g., annual population size and uncertainty, population trend, mortality rates) used to inform management responses. A primary consideration is that the 16-km distance criterion results in total population estimates derived from the Chao2 estimates that are greater than those we have reported in the past. This increase is due to a change in the implementation of the technique and more accurately represents the number of females with cubs in the GYE grizzly bear population. Additionally, interpretation of retrospective trend patterns may change due to the combination of a different distance criterion and enhanced trend monitoring based on the GAM approach we present here. Implementation will require relatively minor changes in the monitoring protocols described in Appendices B and C of the 2016 Conservation Strategy. Finally, we note that the IGBST has ongoing investigations into the merits of an Integrated Population Model (IPM), for which annual Chao2-based estimates are important input data. The IGBST plans to continue those investigations using the 16-km distance criterion to derive Chao2 estimates.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2017

Assessment of adult pallid sturgeon fish condition, Lower Missouri River—Application of new information to the Missouri River Recovery Program

During spring 2015, Nebraska Game and Parks Commission (NGPC) biologists noted that pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) were in poor condition during sampling associated with the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Project and NGPC’s annual pallid sturgeon broodstock collection effort. These observations prompted concerns that reduced fish condition could compromise reproductive health and population growth of pallid sturgeon. There was a further concern that compromised condition could possibly be linked to U.S. Army Corps of Engineers management actions and increase jeopardy to the species. An evaluation request was made to the Missouri River Recovery Program and the Effects Analysis Team was chartered to evaluate the issue. Data on all Missouri River pallid sturgeon captures were requested and received from the National Pallid Sturgeon Database. All data were examined for completeness and accuracy; 12,053 records of captures between 200 millimeters fork length (mm FL) and 1,200 mm FL were accepted. We analyzed condition using (1) the condition formula (Kn) from Shuman and others (2011); (2) a second Kn formulation derived from the 12,053 records (hereafter referred to as “Alternative Kn”); and (3) an analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) approach that did not rely on a Kn formulation. The Kn data were analyzed using group (average annual Kn) and individual (percentage in low, normal, and robust conditions) approaches. Using the Shuman Kn formulation, annual mean Kn was fairly static from 2005 to 2011 (although always higher in the upper basin), declined from 2012 to 2015, then remained either static (lower basin) or increasing (upper basin) in 2016. Under the Alternative Kn formulation, the upper basin showed no decline in Kn, whereas the lower basin displayed the same trend as the Shuman Kn formulation. Using both formulations, the individual approach revealed a more complex situation; at the same times and locations that there are fish in poor condition, there are nearby fish in normal or robust condition. The ANCOVA approach revealed that fish condition at size changed between 400 and 600 mm and that some of the apparent trend in low condition was caused by differences in sample size across the size range of the population (that is, greater catch of intermediate-sized fish compared to large fish). We examined basin, year, origin (hatchery compared to wild), segment, and size class for effects on condition and concluded that, since 2012, there has been an increase in the percentage of pallid sturgeon in low condition. There are basin, year, and segment effects; origin and size class do not seem to have an effect. The lower basin, in particular segment 9 (Platte River to Kansas River), had a high percentage of low-condition fish. Within the segment, there were bend-level effects, but the bend effect was not spatially contiguous. We concluded that existing data confirm concerns about declining fish condition, especially in the segments between Sioux City, Iowa, and Kansas City, Missouri. Although the evidence is strong that fish condition has been in decline from 2011 to 2015, additional analysis of individual fish histories may provide more confidence in this conclusion; such analysis was beyond the scope of this effort but is part of our recommendations. The most recent data in 2016 indicate that decline of condition may have leveled off; however, the length of record is insufficient to determine whether recent declines are within the background range of variation. We recommend that monitoring of fish condition should be increased and enhanced with additional health metrics. We also recommend that, should condition continue to decline, processes are deployed to bring low-condition adult fish into the hatchery to improve nutrition and condition. We could not determine the cause of declining fish condition with available data, but we compiled information on several dominant hypotheses in two main categories: inter- or intraspecific competition for resources and habitat conditions. Data are insufficient to indicate a specific causation or solution, and it is possible that multiple causes apply. We make recommendations for additional research that can be pursued to address uncertainties in trends in fish health as well as potential causes.

Missouri River↗

USGS2003

Ecology of selected marine communities in Glacier Bay: Zooplankton, forage fish, seabirds and marine mammals

We studied oceanography (including primary production), secondary production, small schooling fish (SSF), and marine bird and mammal predators in Glacier Bay during 1999 and 2000. Results from these field efforts were combined with a review of current literature relating to the Glacier Bay environment. Since the conceptual model developed by Hale and Wright (1979) ‘changes and cycles’ continue to be the underlying theme of the Glacier Bay ecosystem. We found marked seasonality in many of the parameters that we investigated over the two years of research, and here we provide a comprehensive description of the distribution and relative abundance of a wide array of marine biota. Glacier Bay is a tidally mixed estuary that leads into basins, which stratify in summer, with the upper arms behaving as traditional estuaries. The Bay is characterized by renewal and mixing events throughout the year, and markedly higher primary production than in many neighboring southeast Alaska fjords (Hooge and Hooge, 2002). Zooplankton diversity and abundance within the upper 50 meters of the water column in Glacier Bay is similar to communities seen throughout the Gulf of Alaska. Zooplankton in the lower regions of Glacier Bay peak in abundance in late May or early June, as observed at Auke Bay and in the Gulf of Alaska. The key distinction between the lower Bay and other estuaries in the Gulf of Alaska is that a second smaller peak in densities occurs in August. The upper Bay behaved uniformly in temporal trends, peaking in July. Densities had begun to decline in August, but were still more than twice those observed in that region in May. The highest density of zooplankton observed was 17,870 organisms/m3 in Tarr Inlet during July. Trends in zooplankton community abundance and diversity within the lower Bay were distinct from upper-Glacier Bay trends. Whereas the lower Bay is strongly influenced by Gulf of Alaska processes, local processes are the strongest influence in the upper-Bay. We identified 55 species of fish during this study (1999 and 2000) from beach seines, mid-water trawls, and rod and line catches. The diversity of physical, oceanographic, and glacial chronological conditions within Glacier Bay contribute a suite of factors that influence the distribution and abundance of fish. Accordingly, we observed significant differences in the abundance and distribution of fish within the Bay. Most significantly, abundance and diversity (primarily juvenile fish including walleye Pollock, eelblennies, and capelin) were greatest at the head of both the east and west arms where zooplankton abundance was greatest – in close proximity to tidewater glaciers and freshwater runoff. All of Glacier Bay and Icy Strait were surveyed hydroacoustically for plankton and fish during June 1999 surveys. Acoustically determined forage biomass was concentrated in relatively few important areas such as Pt. Adolphus, Berg Bay, on the Geikie-Scidmore shelf, around the Beardslee/Marble islands, and the upper arms of Glacier Bay. Forage biomass (primarily small schooling fish and euphausiids) was concentrated in shallow, nearshore waters; 50 % of acoustic biomass was found at depths < 35m, 80 % of biomass at depths < 80m. During our sampling, high density patches of prey were very rare, and less than 8 % of the area surveyed in Glacier Bay contained patch densities suitable (e.g., > 0.01 fish/m 3 ) for seabirds foraging on zooplankton and small schooling fish. Less than 1 % of the area contained patches suitable (e.g., >0.1 fish/m 3 ) for whales foraging on zooplankton and small schooling fish. High-density aggregations of 0.1-10 fish/m 3 were comprised mostly of schools containing capelin, pollock, herring or euphausiids (0.1-1 kg/m 3 ). During predator surveys (1999-2000), we observed 63 species of birds and 7 species of marine mammals. Seasonal distribution and abundance of these “apex” predators was highly variable by species. Glacier Bay supports high numbers of seabirds and marine mammals that consume zooplankton and small schooling fish. Nearshore areas had higher densities of both birds and marine mammals. Several areas, such as Pt. Adolphus, Berg Bay, on the Geikie-Scidmore shelf, the Beardslee/Marble islands, and the upper arms of Glacier Bay were focal points of small schooling fish and zooplankton consuming marine birds and mammals. Comparisons between surveys and a prior study (1991) suggested that the assemblage of birds and marine mammals in the Bay is undergoing change. Most notable was a clear decline in Brachyramphus spp. murrelets while other apex species are increasing or remaining stable. It should be noted that many of the birds and mammals observed during this project, e.g. mergansers, do not forage on zooplankton and small schooling fish; rather they forage on benthic fish and sessile invertebrates. While distribution and sampling data for these marine predator species are valid, this study did not sample benthic fish and sessile invertebrates. Thus, recommendations made by this project should be interpreted as generally specific to the zooplankton/small schooling fish marine food web components of the Glacier Bay Ecosystem.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

The United States National Climate Assessment - Alaska Technical Regional Report

The Alaskan landscape is changing, both in terms of effects of human activities as a consequence of increased population, social and economic development and their effects on the local and broad landscape; and those effects that accompany naturally occurring hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and tsunamis. Some of the most prevalent changes, however, are those resulting from a changing climate, with both near term and potential upcoming effects expected to continue into the future. Alaska's average annual statewide temperatures have increased by nearly 4°F from 1949 to 2005, with significant spatial variability due to the large latitudinal and longitudinal expanse of the State. Increases in mean annual temperature have been greatest in the interior region, and smallest in the State's southwest coastal regions. In general, however, trends point toward increases in both minimum temperatures, and in fewer extreme cold days. Trends in precipitation are somewhat similar to those in temperature, but with more variability. On the whole, Alaska saw a 10-percent increase in precipitation from 1949 to 2005, with the greatest increases recorded in winter. The National Climate Assessment has designated two well-established scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nakicenovic and others, 2001) as a minimum set that technical and author teams considered as context in preparing portions of this assessment. These two scenarios are referred to as the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios, which assume either a continuation of recent trends in fossil fuel use (A2) or a vigorous global effort to reduce fossil fuel use (B1). Temperature increases from 4 to 22°F are predicted (to 2070-2099) depending on which emissions scenario (A2 or B1) is used with the least warming in southeast Alaska and the greatest in the northwest. Concomitant with temperature changes, by the end of the 21st century the growing season is expected to lengthen by 15-25 days in some areas of Alaska, with much of that corresponding with earlier spring snow melt. Future projections of precipitation (30-80 years) over Alaska show an increase across the State, with the largest changes in the northwest and smallest in the southeast. Because of increasing temperatures and growing season length, however, increased precipitation may not correspond with increased water availability, due to temperature related increased evapotranspiration. The extent of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by about 10 percent since the late 1960s, with stronger trends noted since the late 1980s. Alaska has experienced similar trends, with a strong decrease in snow cover extent occurring in May. When averaged across the State, the disappearance of snow in the spring has occurred from 4 to 6 days earlier per decade, and snow return in fall has occurred approximately 2 days later per decade. This change appears to be driven by climate warming rather than a decrease in winter precipitation, with average winter temperatures also increasing by about 2.5°F. The extent of sea ice has been declining, as has been widely published in both national and scientific media outlets, and is projected to continue to decline during this century. The observed decline in annual sea ice minimum extent (September) has occurred more rapidly than was predicted by climate models and has been accompanied by decreases in ice thickness and in the presence of multi-year ice. This decrease was first documented by satellite imagery in the late 1970s for the Bering and Chukchi Seas, and is projected to continue, with the potential for the disappearance of summer sea ice by mid- to late century. A new phenomenon that was not reported in previous assessments is ocean acidification. Uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) by oceans has a significant effect on marine biogeochemistry by reducing seawater pH. Ocean acidification is of particular concern in Alaska, because cold sea water absorbs CO2 more rapidly than warm water, and a decrease in sea ice extent has allowed increased sea surface exposure and more uptake of CO2 into these northern waters. Ocean acidification will likely affect the ability of organisms to produce and maintain shell material, such as aragonite or calcite (calcium carbonate minerals structured from carbonate ions), required by many shelled organism, from mollusks to corals to microscopic organisms at the base of the food chain. Direct biological effects in Alaska further along the food chain have yet to be studied and may vary among organisms. Some of the potentially most significant changes to Alaska that could result from a changing climate are the effects on the terrestrial cryosphere - particularly glaciers and permafrost. Alaskan glaciers are changing at a rapid rate, the primary driver appearing to be temperature. Statewide, glaciers lost 13 cubic miles of ice annually from the 1950s to the 1990s, and that rate doubled in the 2000s. However, like temperature and precipitation, glacier ice loss is not spatially uniform; most glaciers are losing mass, yet some are growing (for example Hubbard Glacier in southeast Alaska). Alaska glaciers with the most rapid loss are those terminating in sea water or lakes. With this increasing rate of melt, the contribution of surplus fresh water entering into the oceans from Alaska's glaciers, as well as those in neighboring British Columbia, Canada, is approximately 20 percent of that contributed by the Greenland Ice Sheet. Permafrost degradation (that is, the thawing of ice-rich soils) is currently (2012) impacting infrastructure and surface-water availability in areas of both discontinuous and continuous ground ice. Over most of the State, the permafrost is warming, with increasing temperatures broadly consistent with increasing air temperatures. On the Arctic coastal plain of Alaska, permafrost temperatures showed some cooling in the 1950s and 1960s but have been followed by a roughly 5°F increase since the 1980s. Many areas in the continuous permafrost zone have seen increases in temperature in the seasonally active layer and a decrease in re-freezing rates. Changes in the discontinuous permafrost zone are initially much more observable due to the resulting thermokarst terrain (land surface formed as ice rich permafrost thaws), most notable in boreal forested areas. Climate warming in Alaska has potentially broad implications for human health and food security, especially in rural areas, as well as increased risk for injury with changing winter ice conditions. Additionally, such warming poses the potential for increasing damage to existing water and sanitation facilities and challenges for development of new facilities, especially in areas underlain by permafrost. Non-infectious and infectious diseases also are becoming an increasing concern. For example, from 1999 to 2006 there was a statistically significant increase in medical claims for insectbite reactions in five of six regions of Alaska, with the largest percentage increase occurring in the most northern areas. The availability and quality of subsistence foods, normally considered to be very healthy, may change due to changing access, changing habitats, and spoilage of meat in food storage cellars. These and other trends and potential outcomes resulting from a changing climate are further described in this report. In addition, we describe new science leadership activities that have been initiated to address and provide guidance toward conducting research aimed at making available information for policy makers and land management agencies to better understand, address, and plan for changes to the local and regional environment. This report cites data in both metric and standard units due to the contributions by numerous authors and the direct reference of their data.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2014 annual report

This is the seventh report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual activities conducted by the USGS for addressing specific management needs identified by WLCI partners. In FY2014, there were 26 projects, including a new one that was completed, two others that were also completed, and several that entered new phases or directions. The 26 projects fall into several categories: (1) synthesizing and analyzing existing data to identify current conditions on the landscape and using the data to develop models for projecting past and future landscape conditions; (2) monitoring indicators of ecosystem conditions and the effectiveness of on-the-ground habitat projects; (3) conducting research to elucidate the mechanisms underlying wildlife and habitat responses to changing land uses; (4) managing and making accessible the large number of databases, maps, and other products being developed; and (5) coordinating efforts among WLCI partners, helping them use USGS-developed decision-support tools, and integrating WLCI outcomes with future habitat enhancement and research projects. The new (completed) project was the development and publication of a public outreach piece for visitors of Fossil Butte National Monument. The final product was a USGS Fact Sheet that capitalized on previously collected elk-monitoring data to interpret the ecology of the Monument’s elk population and the importance of the Monument’s habitats to this highly visible wildlife species. One of the completed projects entailed developing and evaluating a synthetic approach to high-resolution satellite imagery for use in effectiveness monitoring, which culminated in a journal article. The other completed project was a coalescing of two similar tasks under data and information management that pertain to Web application development and the development of outreach and graphic products into a single integrated project that focuses on developing and maintaining/upgrading Web applications and other tools for visualizing, mapping, and using geospatial data. Major accomplishments for FY2014 included several publications, including Part B of an energy resources map that (with Part A) depicts coal, wind, oil, gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar energy production in the WLCI region. Two published works associated with sage-grouse included a Wildlife Monograph on prioritizing species’ habitats across large landscapes, multiple seasons, and novel areas (using sage-grouse in Wyoming as an example), and a USGS Data Series report that includes both the data used in the habitat-prioritization models and the habitat prioritization models developed for sage-grouse. Our Science Team also published a framework for conducting large, collaborative projects that rely on geospatial data, and a paper that describes the efficacy of fusing satellite data collected at various resolutions for measuring and monitoring vegetation changes. These products are all invaluable tools for maximizing the efficiency and effectiveness of managing species of concern, conducting future landscape-scale assessments, and monitoring status and trends of landscape conditions. Other highlights of FY2014 included a renewed effort to gather and analyze wildlife and habitat status and trend data for the WLCI Interagency Monitoring Database (IAMD) to assess long-term trends and cumulative effects associated with land-use and climate changes. Water-monitoring efforts included drilling four new groundwater-monitoring wells in the Green and New Fork River basins near the proposed Normally Pressured Lance Formation energy development, and continued data collection at established water-monitoring sites. Three additional wells were sampled as part of the Wyoming Groundwater Monitoring Network, bringing the total to 19 Network wells sampled in the WLCI region since 2010. Combined, these water-monitoring efforts can help to identify potential changes in water quality or levels that may result from land-use changes. Major terrestrial monitoring accomplishments included processing satellite imagery from 1985−2010 to develop a historical perspective of long-term vegetation changes, which can serve as a basis for monitoring current and future trends in sagebrush steppe. Such data are crucial tools for agencies tasked with sage-grouse management and conservation. The USGS WLCI Science Team also continued monitoring and testing methods for evaluating WLCI habitat treatments designed to promote aspen regeneration and enhance sage-grouse habitat, and to assess how those treatments influence invasive species distributions and ungulate herbivory. Highlights included analyzing field data collected to elucidate the relationships between sage-grouse habitat use and the proximity of energy infrastructure, and using new instruments to measure productivity responses of aspen woodlands to various factors. Numerous FY2014 accomplishments specifically addressed agency needs to manage and conserve Wyoming’s wildlife species of concern. A pygmy rabbit habitat model and Wyoming distribution map were completed to identify factors associated with rabbit habitat occupancy. Previous work on sage-grouse population dynamics was expanded to better understand the factors that drive long-term viability of sage-grouse populations and to develop a tool that helps to identify key factors limiting sage-grouse persistence in Wyoming. Field work and data analyses continued for elucidating the relationships between sagebrush songbird abundance and productivity, the intensity of energy development, and community dynamics of nest predators. For the mule deer study, mixed mountain shrublands important to migrating and wintering mule deer were mapped and delivered to WLCI partners. Additionally, the relationships between energy development and crucial winter habitat for mule deer were evaluated, and a new phase of work was implemented to better understand relationships between plant phenology and mule deer migration movements. Finally, initial analyses of data collected to evaluate fish-community composition in relation to habitat quality indicate that water quality, as measured by concentrations of hydrocarbons, water temperature, and others parameters, has been diminished in subwatersheds with higher levels of energy development. Overall, the outcomes and products of these wildlife studies contribute significantly to the information and tools needed for addressing effects of land-use changes on Wyoming’s species of concern. Finally, capabilities of the WLCI Web site and the USGS ScienceBase infrastructure were maintained and upgraded to help ensure access to and efficient use of all the WLCI data, products, assessment tools, and outreach materials that have been developed. Of particular note is the completion of three Web applications developed for mapping (1) the 1900−2008 progression of oil and gas development;(2) the predicted distributions of Wyoming’s Species of Greatest Conservation Need; and (3) the locations of coal and wind energy production, sage-grouse distribution and core management areas, and alternative routes for transmission lines within the WLCI region. Collectively, these applications tools provide WLCI planners and managers with powerful tools for better understanding the distributions of wildlife species and potential alternatives for energy development.

Wyoming↗