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At least 433 records · Page 24Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Experimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants

Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2018

Change in dominance determines herbivore effects on plant biodiversity

Herbivores alter plant biodiversity (species richness) in many of the world’s ecosystems, but the magnitude and the direction of herbivore effects on biodiversity vary widely within and among ecosystems. One current theory predicts that herbivores enhance plant biodiversity at high productivity but have the opposite effect at low productivity. Yet, empirical support for the importance of site productivity as a mediator of these herbivore impacts is equivocal. Here, we synthesize data from 252 large-herbivore exclusion studies, spanning a 20-fold range in site productivity, to test an alternative hypothesis—that herbivore-induced changes in the competitive environment determine the response of plant biodiversity to herbivory irrespective of productivity. Under this hypothesis, when herbivores reduce the abundance (biomass, cover) of dominant species (for example, because the dominant plant is palatable), additional resources become available to support new species, thereby increasing biodiversity. By contrast, if herbivores promote high dominance by increasing the abundance of herbivory-resistant, unpalatable species, then resource availability for other species decreases reducing biodiversity. We show that herbivore-induced change in dominance, independent of site productivity or precipitation (a proxy for productivity), is the best predictor of herbivore effects on biodiversity in grassland and savannah sites. Given that most herbaceous ecosystems are dominated by one or a few species, altering the competitive environment via herbivores or by other means may be an effective strategy for conserving biodiversity in grasslands and savannahs globally.

Nature Ecology & Evolution↗
USGS2003

Roads as conduits for exotic plant invasions in a semiarid landscape

Roads are believed to be a major contributing factor to the ongoing spread of exotic plants. We examined the effect of road improvement and environmental variables on exotic and native plant diversity in roadside verges and adjacent semiarid grassland, shrubland, and woodland communities of southern Utah (U.S.A.). We measured the cover of exotic and native species in roadside verges and both the richness and cover of exotic and native species in adjacent interior communities (50 m beyond the edge of the road cut) along 42 roads stratified by level of road improvement (paved, improved surface, graded, and four-wheel-drive track). In roadside verges along paved roads, the cover of Bromus tectorum was three times as great (27%) as in verges along four-wheel-drive tracks (9%). The cover of five common exotic forb species tended to be lower in verges along four-wheel-drive tracks than in verges along more improved roads. The richness and cover of exotic species were both more than 50% greater, and the richness of native species was 30% lower, at interior sites adjacent to paved roads than at those adjacent to four-wheel-drive tracks. In addition, environmental variables relating to dominant vegetation, disturbance, and topography were significantly correlated with exotic and native species richness and cover. Improved roads can act as conduits for the invasion of adjacent ecosystems by converting natural habitats to those highly vulnerable to invasion. However, variation in dominant vegetation, soil moisture, nutrient levels, soil depth, disturbance, and topography may render interior communities differentially susceptible to invasions originating from roadside verges. Plant communities that are both physically invasible (e.g., characterized by deep or fertile soils) and disturbed appear most vulnerable. Decision-makers considering whether to build, improve, and maintain roads should take into account the potential spread of exotic plants.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2026

A review of extraction techniques for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances in graminaceous plants

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a wide-ranging class of manufactured chemicals that are environmentally persistent. Due to their ubiquity and resistance to degradation, PFAS readily bioaccumulate in a variety of environmental matrices and elicit a range of toxicological impacts. Despite an increase in research into these compounds, there is a clear gap in consensus on extraction techniques to quantify many PFAS in certain environmental media, particularly at critical points in agricultural food systems such as pasture grasses and feedstocks. Developing methods for more comprehensive and accurate extraction of PFAS in plant tissues is crucial for the biomonitoring of PFAS contamination in these ecosystems. This review seeks to identify relevant information pertaining to the partitioning of PFAS in plant matrices and evaluate the performance of previously established methods for the extraction of PFAS in graminaceous plants. Evaluated methods varied widely in extraction techniques, limits of detection and accuracy. This review provides a framework for enhancing PFAS analysis by tailoring extraction and cleanup strategies to both complex plant matrices and diverse analyte properties. Standardizing these methodologies will provide the high-quality data essential for ecotoxicologists and policymakers to accurately map the metabolic fate and ecological risks of these pollutants across food webs.

Critical Reviews in Analytical Chemistry↗
USGS2016

The effects of landscape position on plant species density: Evidence of past environmental effects in a coastal wetland

Here we propose that an important cause of variation in species density may be prior environmental conditions that continue to influence current patterns. In this paper we investigated the degree to which species density varies with location within the landscape, independent of contemporaneous environmental conditions. The area studied was a coastal marsh landscape subject to periodic storm events. To evaluate the impact of historical effects, it was assumed that the landscape position of a plot relative to the river's mouth ('distance from sea') and to the edge of a stream channel ('distance from shore') would correlate with the impact of prior storm events, an assumption supported by previous studies. To evaluate the importance of spatial location on species density, data were collected from five sites located at increasing distances from the river's mouth along the Middle Pearl River in Louisiana. At each site, plots were established systematically along transects perpendicular to the shoreline. For each of the 175 Plots, we measured elevation, soil salinity, percent of plot recently disturbed, percent of sunlight captured by the plant canopy (as a measure of plant abundance), and plant species density. Structural equation analysis ascertained the degree to which landscape position variables explained variation in species density that could not be explained by current environmental indicators. Without considering landscape variables, 54% of the variation in species density could be explained by the effects of salinity, flooding, and plant abundance. When landscape variables were included, distance from shore was unimportant but distance from sea explained an additional 12% of the variance in species density (R2 of final model = 66%). Based on these results it appears that at least some of the otherwise unexplained variation in species density can be attributed to landscape position, and presumably previous storm events. We suggest that future studies may gain additional insight into the factors controlling current patterns of species density by examining the effects of position within the landscape.

Écoscience↗
USGS2016

Response of a subarctic salt marsh plant community to grubbing and grazing by captive lesser snow geese

F oraging intensity and faecal inputs are important determinants of plant community response to herbivory. We used captive adult lesser snow geese ( Anser caerulescens caerulescens ), which feed on both above- and below-ground plant tissues, to manipulate foraging intensity and faecal inputs to plots in a sedge meadow in spring, 1996. We measured plant and soil characteristics throughout the growing season of 1996 and in August 1997. We analysed three contrasts: grazed plots versus ungrazed controls, plots with a short period of feeding (3 goose-hours) versus plots with a long period of feeding (6 goose-hours), and grazed plots with faeces versus grazed plots without faeces. Although grazed plots had an order of magnitude higher foraging intensity than that imposed by wild geese in the marsh, there was no effect of feeding on biomass or nitrogen concentration in the dominant species, Carex ramenskii and Triglochin maritimum , after one and two growing seasons. The amount of forage removed by geese did not differ between plots grazed for long and short periods, indicating that geese were able to remove little additional biomass after 3 hours due to low availability. Therefore, the amount of biomass removed by geese was a better indicator of foraging intensity than the time geese fed on plots. The presence of faeces had no effect on biomass or nitrogen concentration in Carex ramenskii or Triglochin maritimum , or on rates of net nitrogen mineralization in soils. Thus, faeces did not appear to increase nitrogen availability for plants in this marsh, probably because faecal density was low.

Écoscience↗
USGS2004

Implications of hydrologic variability on the succession of plants in Great Lakes wetlands

Primary succession of plant communities directed toward a climax is not a typical occurrence in wetlands because these ecological systems are inherently dependent on hydrology, and temporal hydrologic variability often causes reversals or setbacks in succession. Wetlands of the Great Lakes provide good examples for demonstrating the implications of hydrology in driving successional processes and for illustrating potential misinterpretations of apparent successional sequences. Most Great Lakes coastal wetlands follow cyclic patterns in which emergent communities are reduced in area or eliminated by high lake levels and then regenerated from the seed bank during low lake levels. Thus, succession never proceeds for long. Wetlands also develop in ridge and swale terrains in many large embayments of the Great Lakes. These formations contain sequences of wetlands of similar origin but different age that can be several thousand years old, with older wetlands always further from the lake. Analyses of plant communities across a sequence of wetlands at the south end of Lake Michigan showed an apparent successional pattern from submersed to floating to emergent plants as water depth decreased with wetland age. However, paleoecological analyses showed that the observed vegetation changes were driven largely by disturbances associated with increased human settlement in the area. Climate-induced hydrologic changes were also shown to have greater effects on plant-community change than autogenic processes. Other terms, such as zonation, maturation, fluctuations, continuum concept, functional guilds, centrifugal organization, pulse stability, and hump-back models provide additional means of describing organization and changes in vegetation; some of them overlap with succession in describing vegetation processes in Great Lakes wetlands, but each must be used in the proper context with regard to short- and long-term hydrologic variability.

Aquatic Ecosystem Health & Management↗
USGS2026

The effect of solar energy development on plant diversity across spatial scales

Utility-scale solar energy development is a novel and rapidly expanding land-use with largely unknown consequences for plant diversity. Construction disturbance and associated increases in environmental heterogeneity in solar facilities relative to undisturbed ecosystems can affect plant diversity at multiple spatial scales. We assessed the effects of modified construction methods, designed to reduce impacts of a utility-scale solar facility, on plant diversity across spatial scales (1–4000 m 2 ) in the Mojave Desert, USA one year after construction. Vegetation surveys across three soil–vegetation types revealed that species richness and evenness were largely unaffected by solar infrastructure at local scales in two of the three soil–vegetation types, but in creosote bush ( Larrea tridentata )-white bursage ( Ambrosia dumosa ) communities with deep soils, both metrics increased. Beta diversity remained unchanged by solar infrastructure while gamma diversity (4000 m 2 ) increased or had a small reduction depending on the soil–vegetation type. These results suggest that low-impact construction can have neutral to positive effects on plant diversity.

Nevada↗
USGS2017

Using publicly available data to quantify plant–pollinator interactions and evaluate conservation seeding mixes in the Northern Great Plains

Concern over declining pollinators has led to multiple conservation initiatives for improving forage for bees in agroecosystems. Using data available through the Pollinator Library (npwrc.usgs.gov/pollinator/), we summarize plant–pollinator interaction data collected from 2012–2015 on lands managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and private lands enrolled in U.S. Department of Agriculture conservation programs in eastern North Dakota (ND). Furthermore, we demonstrate how plant–pollinator interaction data from the Pollinator Library and seed cost information can be used to evaluate hypothetical seeding mixes for pollinator habitat enhancements. We summarize records of 314 wild bee and 849 honey bee ( Apis mellifera L.) interactions detected on 63 different plant species. The wild bee observations consisted of 46 species, 15 genera, and 5 families. Over 54% of all wild bee observations were represented by three genera ― Bombus , Lassioglossum , and Melissodes . The most commonly visited forbs by wild bees were Monarda fistulosa , Sonchus arvensis , and Zizia aurea . The most commonly visited forbs by A. mellifera were Cirsium arvense , Melilotus officinalis , and Medicago sativa . Among all interactions, 13% of A. mellifera and 77% of wild bee observations were made on plants native to ND. Our seed mix evaluation shows that mixes may often need to be tailored to meet the unique needs of wild bees and managed honey bees in agricultural landscapes. Our evaluation also demonstrates the importance of incorporating both biologic and economic information when attempting to design cost-effective seeding mixes for supporting pollinators in a critically important part of the United States.

Environmental Entomology↗
USGS2021

The ecology and evolution of synchronized reproduction in long-lived plants

Populations of many long-lived plants exhibit spatially synchronized seed production that varies extensively over time, so that seed production in some years is much higher than on average, while in others, it is much lower or absent. This phenomenon termed masting or mast seeding has important consequences for plant reproductive success, ecosystem dynamics and plant–human interactions. Inspired by recent advances in the field, this special issue presents a series of articles that advance the current understanding of the ecology and evolution of masting. To provide a broad overview, we reflect on the state-of-the-art of masting research in terms of underlying proximate mechanisms, ontogeny, adaptations, phylogeny and applications to conservation. While the mechanistic drivers and fitness consequences of masting have received most attention, the evolutionary history, ontogenetic trajectory and applications to plant–human interactions are poorly understood. With increased availability of long-term datasets across broader geographical and taxonomic scales, as well as advances in molecular approaches, we expect that many mysteries of masting will be solved soon. The increased understanding of this global phenomenon will provide the foundation for predictive modelling of seed crops, which will improve our ability to manage forests and agricultural fruit and nut crops in the Anthropocene.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗
USGS2022

Functional composition of plant communities mediates biomass effects on ecosystem service recovery across an experimental dryland restoration network

Land degradation can result in a loss of critical ecosystem services that we often seek to restore through re-establishment of desired plant communities. Trait-based approaches have the potential to target specific ecosystem services based on associations between the functional composition of plant communities and ecosystem properties that serve as indicators of those services. The effect of functional composition on ecosystem recovery may depend on the amount of restored plant biomass, itself a supporting service frequently targeted in restoration efforts. Yet, interactions between functional composition and biomass are not formally integrated into trait-based analytical frameworks. We tested the hypothesis that functional composition of plant communities both drives, and interacts with, biomass production to influence indicators of soil functioning and weed suppression across a network of degraded dryland restoration experiments. This networked approach allowed us to identify generalized effects of functional composition on ecosystem recovery across a range of dryland climate conditions. Climate had a substantial effect on ecosystem indicators, with weed cover and soil surface stability increasing in more arid climates, water infiltration increasing with precipitation, and aggregate structure increasing with less freezing. After accounting for climate effects across study sites, we found significant effects of community-weighted mean (CWM) trait values on biomass, particularly a positive effect of leaf carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, and of CWM-biomass interactions on other ecosystem indicators. Cover of exotic species was reduced in restored communities with a combination of low leaf dry matter content and high biomass, soil water infiltration increased with lower specific root length and high biomass, and soil aggregate stability increased with higher root dry matter content and high biomass, among other effects. Functional diversity had no significant effects on any ecosystem indicators. Synthesis : The influence of community functional composition on ecosystem properties increases with community biomass, particularly in disturbed or low productivity systems. This suggests that active management should not only focus on trait values that optimize individual ecosystem indicators but also how those functional strategies are complementary or counter to those that increase biomass.

Functional Ecology↗
USGS2014

Using a network modularity analysis to inform management of a rare endemic plant in the northern Great Plains, USA

1. Analyses of flower-visitor interaction networks allow application of community-level information to conservation problems, but management recommendations that ensue from such analyses are not well characterized. Results of modularity analyses, which detect groups of species (modules) that interact more with each other than with species outside their module, may be particularly applicable to management concerns. 2. We conducted modularity analyses of networks surrounding a rare endemic annual plant, Eriogonum visheri , at Badlands National Park, USA, in 2010 and 2011. Plant species visited were determined by pollen on insect bodies and by flower species upon which insects were captured. Roles within modules (network hub, module hub, connector and peripheral, in decreasing order of network structural importance) were determined for each species. 3. Relationships demonstrated by the modularity analysis, in concert with knowledge of pollen species carried by insects, allowed us to infer effects of two invasive species on E. visheri . Sharing a module increased risk of interspecific pollen transfer to E. visheri . Control of invasive Salsola tragus , which shared a module with E. visheri , is therefore a prudent management objective, but lack of control of invasive Melilotus officinalis , which occupied a different module, is unlikely to negatively affect pollination of E. visheri . Eriogonum pauciflorum may occupy a key position in this network, supporting insects from the E. visheri module when E. visheri is less abundant. 4. Year-to-year variation in species' roles suggests management decisions must be based on observations over several years. Information on pollen deposition on stigmas would greatly strengthen inferences made from the modularity analysis. 5. Synthesis and applications: Assessing the consequences of pollination, whether at the community or individual level, is inherently time-consuming. A trade-off exists: rather than an estimate of fitness effects, the network approach provides a broad understanding of the relationships among insect visitors and other plant species that may affect the focal rare plant. Knowledge of such relationships allows managers to detect, target and prioritize control of only the important subset of invasive species present and identify other species that may augment a rare species' population stability, such as E. pauciflorum in our study.

South Dakota↗
USGS2025

The relative influence of geographic and environmental factors on rare plant translocation outcomes

Conservation translocations are an established method for reducing the extinction risk of plant species through intentional movement within or outside the indigenous range. Unsuitable environmental conditions at translocation recipient sites and a lack of understanding of species–environment relationships are often identified as critical barriers to translocation success. However, previous syntheses have drawn these inferences from analyses of qualitative feedback rather than quantitative environmental data. In this study, we use a data set of 235 translocations conducted in the US to understand the influences of geographic and environmental factors on three metrics of translocation success: population persistence, next-generation recruitment and next-generation maturity. We use random forest models to quantify the relative importance of geographic and environmental factors that characterize dissimilarity between source and recipient locations, the position of recipient sites relative to species' ranges and niche metrics derived from these ranges. We also compare the importance of these variables with more conventional predictors (e.g. founder population size). Our results indicate that geographic and environmental variables can be as insightful as conventional variables for predicting plant translocation outcomes. The climate suitability of recipient sites, estimated using species distribution models, was the strongest relative predictor of whether a population persisted, with populations situated in more suitable climates displaying greater persistence. Next-generation recruitment and maturity were best predicted by niche metrics; species in more biotically limiting environments, including tropical regions and soils with high relative nutrient retention, as well as species with the broadest precipitation niches, were the least likely to attain these next-generation benchmarks. Synthesis and applications . Our study is one of the first to quantify the important role of spatial and climatic factors in rare plant translocation outcomes. We provide a novel geographic and environmental perspective on outcomes in plant translocations and demonstrate opportunities to improve translocation success not only by adhering to established best practice guidelines but also by integrating spatial modelling approaches into planning and management processes.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2025

Short-term ecological effects of solar energy development depend on plant community, soil type, and disturbance intensity

Solar energy is rapidly growing to decarbonize the electrical grid. Maintaining ecosystem function with solar energy generation can be promoted through construction methods that minimize negative impacts on soils and vegetation. However, the disturbance created by less-impactful construction methods at utility-scale solar energy (USSE) facilities and the ecosystem responses remain relatively unknown. We monitored soils and vegetation before and after the USSE build-out to assess the short-term impacts of construction on soils and vegetation at the Gemini Solar Project in the Mojave Desert. The facility was constructed with methods intended to be less impactful than traditional techniques. Our goal was to answer three questions: (1) What are the short-term effects of construction on soils and vegetation? (2) Do construction effects vary by the initial plant community and soil type? and (3) Does disturbance intensity from construction affect soil and vegetation response? We found strong evidence that the construction of the Gemini facility increased bare soil and soil compaction, and decreased dark biocrust cover and soil stability in the short term. For every 1% increase in disturbance intensity, we found a 0.23% increase in bare soil cover and a 0.10% decrease in dark biocrust cover. Plant responses varied more than soil responses and depended on the initial plant community and soil type, with decreases in plant canopy cover highest in sandy soils dominated by creosote bush ( Larrea tridentata ) and white bursage ( Ambrosia dumosa ) shrubs. Synthesis and applications : Many impacts of USSE facility construction depend on the underlying vegetation and soils and the level of disturbance intensity. The use of less-impactful construction methods, including a combination of overland travel and drive-and-crush examined in our study, can ameliorate negative effects relative to traditional construction practices and provide a pathway to maintain ecosystem function.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2014

Functional diversity supports the physiological tolerance hypothesis for plant species richness along climatic gradients

1. The physiological tolerance hypothesis proposes that plant species richness is highest in warm and/or wet climates because a wider range of functional strategies can persist under such conditions. Functional diversity metrics, combined with statistical modeling, offer new ways to test whether diversity-environment relationships are consistent with this hypothesis. 2. In a classic study by R. H. Whittaker (1960), herb species richness declined from mesic (cool, moist, northerly) slopes to xeric (hot, dry, southerly) slopes. Building on this dataset, we measured four plant functional traits (plant height, specific leaf area, leaf water content and foliar C:N) and used them to calculate three functional diversity metrics (functional richness, evenness, and dispersion). We then used a structural equation model to ask if ‘functional diversity’ (modeled as the joint responses of richness, evenness, and dispersion) could explain the observed relationship of topographic climate gradients to species richness. We then repeated our model examining the functional diversity of each of the four traits individually. 3. Consistent with the physiological tolerance hypothesis, we found that functional diversity was higher in more favorable climatic conditions (mesic slopes), and that multivariate functional diversity mediated the relationship of the topographic climate gradient to plant species richness. We found similar patterns for models focusing on individual trait functional diversity of leaf water content and foliar C:N. 4. Synthesis. Our results provide trait-based support for the physiological tolerance hypothesis, suggesting that benign climates support more species because they allow for a wider range of functional strategies.

Oregon↗
USGS2022

Primary production responses to extreme changes in North American Monsoon precipitation vary by elevation and plant functional composition through time

Primary production in dryland ecosystems is limited by water availability and projected to be strongly affected by future shifts in seasonal precipitation. Warm-season precipitation derived from the North American Monsoon contributes 40% of annual precipitation to dryland ecosystems in the southwestern U.S. and is projected to become more variable. However, there is large uncertainty on whether this variability will be expressed as either extreme wet or dry years and how primary production of different plant functional types will respond across widespread elevation gradients in this region. We experimentally imposed extreme drought and water addition treatments from 2016 – 2020, during which ambient warm-season precipitation declined to reach historic lows, to understand production sensitivity of dominant plant functional types along a 1,000 m elevation gradient. We found that the production responses of plant functional types to monsoon precipitation extremes were dependent on the number of treatment years that occurred across sites along the elevation gradient. C 4 perennial grasses were most responsive to precipitation manipulation treatments, followed by C 3 perennial grasses and annuals, while perennial forbs and shrubs had weak or no responses. C 4 perennial grass reductions due to extreme drought were generally stronger or occurred earlier at low elevation sites, while multi-year extreme drought extended negative effects to C 3 perennial grasses at high elevation, and all sites showed delayed responses to multi-year water addition. We found that the sensitivity of C 3 perennial grass production differed for extreme drought and water addition compared to ambient precipitation at one site, but other sites and plant functional types had similar sensitivities to the different treatment types. Synthesis . The upward advance of primary production responsiveness from single- to multi-year extreme changes in warm-season precipitation suggests more immediate shifts in functional composition and carbon cycling at low elevation, while high elevation ecosystems may become less resistant as the effects of extreme precipitation compound through time.

Arizona↗
USGS2025

Daily fluctuating flows affect riparian plant species distributions from local to regional scales

Aims The number of hydropower dams has grown globally over recent decades, with significant impacts on downstream riparian plant communities. Many of these dams generate daily fluctuating flows known as hydropeaking to meet sub-daily variation in energy demands. Hydropeaking can significantly impact riparian plant communities, with obligate riparian species tending to experience the greatest negative effects on habitat suitability. Whether this pattern holds in arid biomes where daily soil moisture enhancements could benefit some plants is an open question. Location Colorado River, Grand Canyon, Western USA. Methods We used occurrence records to model species responses to variation in daily flow fluctuations across 32 689 river segments in the Western United States. We then applied estimates of hydropeaking responses derived from those models to understanding the abundance and fine scale hydrologic niches of riparian plant species in the Colorado River ecosystem downstream of Glen Canyon Dam, which has experienced vegetation expansion attributed to river regulation, including hydropeaking that began in 1964. Results At the regional scale, species with greater wetland dependence exhibited increasingly negative responses to hydropeaking across 1 496 species, consistent with previous studies at smaller scales. At the local scale of the Colorado River, we found that species inhabiting near-channel habitat characterized by daily inundation and exposure had positive modeled responses to hydropeaking, consistent with a long history of selection for species tolerant of hydropeaking. In contrast, species inhabiting the zone immediately above peak daily river stage had negative modeled responses to hydropeaking, suggesting that they are being excluded from otherwise suitable habitat nearer the channel. Conclusions These results demonstrate that hydropeaking can impact species distributions from local to regional scales by excluding obligate wetland species and reducing habitat suitability for some facultative wetland species. These results from an arid river system are consistent with those reported from other biomes.

Arizona↗
USGS2013

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

Conservation Biology↗