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At least 433 records · Page 24Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Landscape-scale determinants of native and nonnative Great Plains fish distributions

Aim Landscape-scale factors may have differential effects on the distribution of native and non-native fishes and may help explain invasion success and species declines. Location Great Plains, Wyoming, USA Methods We used hierarchical Bayesian mixture models and constrained ordination techniques to evaluate associations between landscape-scale factors on native and non-native fish species richness, reproductive guilds and individual species distributions. Results Predicted responses between landscape-scale factors and native and non-native fish species richness were similar, except non-native fish species richness that was positively associated with density of oil and gas wells. Non-native fish species richness was also positively associated with native fish species richness. Spawning guild composition differed between native and non-native fishes. Canonical correspondence analysis revealed that the most abundant non-native and only a few native species were positively associated with oil and gas wells. Main conclusions The similar relationships between native and non-native fish species richness are likely evidence that they share similar ecological rules, which supports that non-native species become naturalized and they may be affected by the same environmental factors that determine distribution of native species.

Diversity and Distributions↗

USGS2016

Occupancy dynamics in human-modified landscapes in a tropical island: implications for conservation design

Aim Avian communities in human-modified landscapes exhibit varying patterns of local colonization and extinction rates, determinants of species occurrence. Our objective was to model these processes to identify habitat features that might enable movements and account for occupancy patterns in habitat matrices between the Guanica and Susua forest reserves. This knowledge is central to conservation design, particularly in ever changing insular landscapes. Location South-western Puerto Rico. Methods We used a multiseason occupancy modelling approach to quantify seasonal estimates of occupancy, and colonization and extinction rates of seven resident avian species surveyed over five seasons from January 2010 to June 2011. We modelled parameters by matrix type, expressions of survey station isolation, quality, amount of forest cover and context (embedded in forest patch). Results Seasonal occupancy remained stable throughout the study for all species, consistent with seasonally constant colonization and extinction probabilities. Occupancy was mediated by matrix type, higher in reserves and forested matrix than in the urban and agricultural matrices. This pattern is in accord with the forest affinities of all but an open-habitat specialist. Puerto Rican Spindalis ( Spindalis portoricensis ) exhibited high occupancy in the urban matrix, highlighting the adaptability of some insular species to novel environments. Highest colonization rates occurred when perching structures were at ≤ 500 m. Survey stations with at least three fruiting tree species and 61% forest cover exhibited lowest seasonal extinction rates. Main conclusions Our work identified habitat features that influenced seasonal probabilities of colonization and extinction in a human-modified landscape. Conservation design decisions are better informed with increased knowledge about interpatch distances to improve matrix permeability, and habitat features that increase persistence or continued use of habitat stepping stones. A focus on dynamic processes is valuable because conservation actions directly influence colonization and extinction rates, and thus, a quantitative means to gauge their benefit.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2018

Relationships between landscape constraints and a crayfish assemblage with consideration of competitor presence

Aim Crayfish are globally diverse and one of the most important taxa in North American streams. Despite their importance, many species are of conservation concern and efforts to improve conditions are limited. Here, we address two major impediments to improving conditions: (a) our lack of knowledge of the interplay among natural landscape and human-induced changes; and (b) a very limited understanding of how species interactions affect overall crayfish distributions. Location Ozark Highlands ecoregion, USA. Methods We used both existing data and field-collected data to examine the relationships between 12 Faxonius species and physicochemical variables at multiple spatial scales. Data were analysed using a generalized linear mixed model. After fitting our environmental variables, we also considered possible relationships between species considered strong competitors and species occurrence. Results Our results indicated that elevation, lithology, an interaction between drainage area and anthropogenic disturbance, and the presence of strong competitors were associated with Faxonius occurrences. Faxonius occurrences were associated with assemblage-structuring variables: lithology and elevation. More interestingly, we found several patterns of interactions between drainage area and disturbance. The most common pattern among several species was a decline in occurrence in larger drainages when disturbance was high; however, longpincered crayfish ( Faxonius longidigitus ) was more likely to occupy large drainages as disturbance increased. Additionally, the presence of species considered strong competitors resulted in lower occurrence probability for many species, including two of the species classified as competitors. Main conclusions In addition to identifying the relationships between native species and assemblage-structuring variables, we show how the probability of species occurrences relate to interactions between disturbance and natural landscape features. Further, our results suggest competitor presence also plays a role in structuring distributions at the stream segment scale. Our findings emphasize the value of considering both competitor presence and interactions among landscape variables and disturbances in structuring crayfish assemblages.

Arkansas, Missouri↗

USGS2022

Defining an epidemiological landscape that connects movement ecology to pathogen transmission and pace-of-life

Pathogen transmission depends on host density, mobility and contact. These components emerge from host and pathogen movements that themselves arise through interactions with the surrounding environment. The environment, the emergent host and pathogen movements, and the subsequent patterns of density, mobility and contact form an ‘epidemiological landscape’ connecting the environment to specific locations where transmissions occur. Conventionally, the epidemiological landscape has been described in terms of the geographical coordinates where hosts or pathogens are located. We advocate for an alternative approach that relates those locations to attributes of the local environment. Environmental descriptions can strengthen epidemiological forecasts by allowing for predictions even when local geographical data are not available. Environmental predictions are more accessible than ever thanks to new tools from movement ecology, and we introduce a ‘movement-pathogen pace of life’ heuristic to help identify aspects of movement that have the most influence on spatial epidemiology. By linking pathogen transmission directly to the environment, the epidemiological landscape offers an efficient path for using environmental information to inform models describing when and where transmission will occur.

Ecology Letters↗

USGS2023

Landscape diversity promotes stable food-web architectures in large rivers

Uncovering relationships between landscape diversity and species interactions is crucial for predicting how ongoing land-use change and homogenization will impact the stability and persistence of communities. However, such connections have rarely been quantified in nature. We coupled high-resolution river sonar imaging with annualized energetic food webs to quantify relationships among habitat diversity, energy flux, and trophic interaction strengths in large-river food-web modules that support the endangered Pallid Sturgeon. Our results demonstrate a clear relationship between habitat diversity and species interaction strengths, with more diverse foraging landscapes containing higher production of prey and a greater proportion of weak and potentially stabilizing interactions. Additionally, rare patches of large and relatively stable river sediments intensified these effects and further reduced interaction strengths by increasing prey diversity. Our findings highlight the importance of landscape characteristics in promoting stabilizing food-web architectures and provide direct relevance for future management of imperilled species in a simplified and rapidly changing world.

Ecology Letters↗

USGS2011

Landscape controls on the timing of spring, autumn, and growing season length in mid-Atlantic forests

The timing of spring leaf development, trajectories of summer leaf area, and the timing of autumn senescence have profound impacts to the water, carbon, and energy balance of ecosystems, and are likely influenced by global climate change. Limited field-based and remote-sensing observations have suggested complex spatial patterns related to geographic features that influence climate. However, much of this variability occurs at spatial scales that inhibit a detailed understanding of even the dominant drivers. Recognizing these limitations, we used nonlinear inverse modeling of medium-resolution remote sensing data, organized by day of year, to explore the influence of climate-related landscape factors on the timing of spring and autumn leaf-area trajectories in mid-Atlantic, USA forests. We also examined the extent to which declining summer greenness (greendown) degrades the precision and accuracy of observations of autumn offset of greenness. Of the dominant drivers of landscape phenology, elevation was the strongest, explaining up to 70% of the spatial variation in the onset of greenness. Urban land cover was second in importance, influencing spring onset and autumn offset to a distance of 32 km from large cities. Distance to tidal water also influenced phenological timing, but only within ~5 km of shorelines. Additionally, we observed that (i) growing season length unexpectedly increases with increasing elevation at elevations below 275 m; (ii) along gradients in urban land cover, timing of autumn offset has a stronger effect on growing season length than does timing of spring onset; and (iii) summer greendown introduces bias and uncertainty into observations of the autumn offset of greenness. These results demonstrate the power of medium grain analyses of landscape-scale phenology for understanding environmental controls on growing season length, and predicting how these might be affected by climate change.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2007

Landscape heterogeneity shapes predation in a newly restored predator-prey system

Because some native ungulates have lived without top predators for generations, it has been uncertain whether runaway predation would occur when predators are newly restored to these systems. We show that landscape features and vegetation, which influence predator detection and capture of prey, shape large-scale patterns of predation in a newly restored predator-prey system. We analysed the spatial distribution of wolf (Canis lupus) predation on elk (Cervus elaphus) on the Northern Range of Yellowstone National Park over 10 consecutive winters. The influence of wolf distribution on kill sites diminished over the course of this study, a result that was likely caused by territorial constraints on wolf distribution. In contrast, landscape factors strongly influenced kill sites, creating distinct hunting grounds and prey refugia. Elk in this newly restored predator-prey system should be able to mediate their risk of predation by movement and habitat selection across a heterogeneous risk landscape. ?? 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Ecology Letters↗

USGS2008

Movements of wintering Dunlin Calidris alpina and changing habitat availability in an agricultural wetland landscape

Few studies have assessed how the dynamics of wetland bird movements relate to changing resource availability, particularly at more than one spatial scale. Within western Oregon's Williamette Valley, we examined winter resident Dunlin Calidris alpina movements in relation to a decrease in availability of preferred shorebird foraging habitat from early to late winter of 1999-2000. By tracking movements of 15 (early winter) and 12 (late winter) radiomarked individuals, we calculated home ranges and characterized presence/absence of a preference for shorebird foraging habitat during each winter period. Between periods, we compared: (1) percentage of shorebird habitat in home ranges to its availability in the landscape (regional preference), (2) percentage of radio locations in shorebird habitat to its availability within home ranges (local preference) and (3) relative use of roost sites. Concurrent with a 75% decrease in available shorebird habitat from early to late winter, average home range sizes increased by a factor of 3.8. At a regional scale, home ranges in early winter included a significantly greater percentage of shorebird foraging habitat than was available in the wider landscape. However, by late winter, the percent of shorebird habitat in home ranges did not match availability in the landscape. At the local scale, for both winter periods Dunlin were located in shorebird foraging habitat more often than expected given availability of habitat within home ranges [Correction added after online pub-lication 23 May 2008: sentence amended]. An increase in the number of roosts used from early to late winter implies possible reliance on additional sites in late winter for foraging opportunities. Results suggest that wet, unvegetated habitat is sought by Dunlin throughout winter, but individuals could not select home ranges in late winter that fully compensated for seasonal loss of habitat. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Ibis↗

USGS2017

Movements of four native Hawaiian birds across a naturally fragmented landscape

Animals often increase their fitness by moving across space in response to temporal variation in habitat quality and resource availability, and as a result of intra and inter-specific interactions. The long-term persistence of populations and even whole species depends on the collective patterns of individual movements, yet animal movements have been poorly studied at the landscape level. We quantified movement behavior within four native species of Hawaiian forest birds in a complex lava-fragmented landscape: Hawai‛i ‘amakihi Chlorodrepanis virens , ‘oma‘o Myadestes obscurus , ‘apapane Himatione sanguinea , and ‘i‘iwi Drepanis coccinea . We evaluated the relative importance of six potential intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of movement behavior and patch fidelity: 1) forest fragment size, 2) the presence or absence of invasive rats ( Rattus sp.), 3) season, 4) species, 5) age, and 6) sex. The study was conducted across a landscape of 34 forest fragments varying in size from 0.07 to 12.37 ha, of which 16 had rats removed using a treatment-control design. We found the largest movements in the nectivorous ‘apapane and ‘i‘iwi, intermediate levels in the generalist Hawai‛i ‘amakihi, and shortest average movement for the ‘oma‘o, a frugivore. We found evidence for larger patch sizes increasing patch fidelity only in the ‘oma‘o, and an effect of rat-removal increasing patch fidelity of Hawai‛i ‘amakihi only after two years of rat-removal. Greater movement during the non-breeding season was observed in all species, and season was an important factor in explaining higher patch fidelity in the breeding season for ‘apapane and ‘i‘iwi. Sex was important in explaining patch fidelity in ‘oma‘o only, with males showing higher patch fidelity. Our results provide new insights into how these native Hawaiian species will respond to a changing environment, including habitat fragmentation and changing distribution of threats from climate change.

Journal of Avian Biology↗

USGS2024

Examining inter-regional and intra-seasonal differences in wintering waterfowl landscape associations among Pacific and Atlantic flyways

The Central Valley of California (CVC) and Mid-Atlantic (MA) in the U.S. are both critical sites for nationwide food security, and many waterfowl species annually, especially during the winter, providing feeding and roosting locations for a variety of species. Mapping waterfowl distributions, using NEXRAD, may aid in the adaptive management of important waterfowl habitat and allow various government agencies to better understand the interface between wild and domestic birds and commercial agricultural practices. We used 9 years (2014–2023) of data from the US NEXRAD network to model winter waterfowl relative abundance in the CVC and MA as a function of weather, temporal period, environmental conditions, and landcover characteristics using boosted regression tree modelling. We were able to quantify the variability in effect size of 28 different covariates across space and time within two geographic regions which are critical to nationwide waterfowl management and host a high density of nationally important commercial agriculture. In general, weather, geographic (distance to features), and landcover condition (wetness index) predictors had the strongest relative effect on predicting wintering waterfowl relative abundance in both regions, while effects of land cover composition were more regionally and temporally specific. Increased daily mean temperature was a major predictor of increasing relative waterfowl abundance in both regions throughout the winter. Increasing precipitation had differing effects within regions, increasing relative waterfowl abundance in the MA, while decreasing in general within the CVC. Increasing relative waterfowl abundance in the CVC are strongly tied to the flooding of the landscape and rice availability, whereas waterfowl in the MA, where water is less limiting, are generally governed by waste grain availability and emergent wetland on the landscape. Waterfowl relative abundance in the MA was generally higher nearer to the Atlantic coast and lakes, while in the CVC they were higher nearer to lakes. Our findings promote a better understanding of spatial associations of waterfowl to landscape features and may aid in conservation and biosecurity management protocols.

California, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, North ↗

USGS2022

Species-specific responses to landscape features shaped genomic structure within Alaska galliformes

Aim Connectivity is vital to the resiliency of populations to environmental change and stochastic events, especially for cold-adapted species as Arctic and alpine tundra habitats retract as the climate warms. We examined the influence of past and current landscapes on genomic connectivity in cold-adapted galliformes as a critical first step to assess the vulnerability of Alaska ptarmigan and grouse to environmental change. We hypothesize that the mosaic of physical features and habitat within Alaska promoted the formation of genetic structure across species. Location Alaska, United States of America. Taxa Ptarmigan and Grouse (Galliformes: Tetraoninae). Methods We collected double digest restriction-site-associated DNA sequence data from six ptarmigan and grouse species ( N = 13–145/species) sampled across multiple ecosystems up to ~10 degrees of latitude. Spatial genomic structure was analysed using methods that reflect different temporal scales: (1) principal components analysis to identify major trends in the distribution of genomic variation; (2) maximum likelihood clustering analyses to test for the presence of multiple genomic groupings; (3) shared co-ancestry analyses to assess contemporary relationships and (4) effective migration surfaces to identify regions that deviate from a null model of isolation by distance. Results Levels of genomic structure varied across species (Φ ST =0.009–0.042). Three general patterns of structure emerged: (1) east-west partition located near the Yukon-Tanana uplands; (2) north-south split coinciding with the Alaska Range and (3) northern group near the Brooks Range. Species-specific patterns were observed; not all landscape features were barriers to gene flow for all ptarmigan and grouse and temporal contrasts were detected at the Brooks Range. Main conclusions Within Alaska galliformes, patterns of genomic structure coincide with physiographic features and highlight the importance of physical and ecological barriers in shaping how genomic diversity is arrayed across the landscape. Lack of concordance in spatial patterns indicates that species behaviour and habitat affinities play key roles in driving the contrasting patterns of genomic structure.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Gravel-bed river floodplains are the ecological nexus of glaciated mountain landscapes

Gravel-bed river floodplains in mountain landscapes disproportionately concentrate diverse habitats, nutrient cycling, productivity of biota, and species interactions. Although stream ecologists know that river channel and floodplain habitats used by aquatic organisms are maintained by hydrologic regimes that mobilize gravel-bed sediments, terrestrial ecologists have largely been unaware of the importance of floodplain structures and processes to the life requirements of a wide variety of species. We provide insight into gravel-bed rivers as the ecological nexus of glaciated mountain landscapes. We show why gravel-bed river floodplains are the primary arena where interactions take place among aquatic, avian, and terrestrial species from microbes to grizzly bears and provide essential connectivity as corridors for movement for both aquatic and terrestrial species. Paradoxically, gravel-bed river floodplains are also disproportionately unprotected where human developments are concentrated. Structural modifications to floodplains such as roads, railways, and housing and hydrologicaltering hydroelectric or water storage dams have severe impacts to floodplain habitat diversity and productivity, restrict local and regional connectivity, and reduce the resilience of both aquatic and terrestrial species, including adaptation to climate change. To be effective, conservation efforts in glaciated mountain landscapes intended to benefit the widest variety of organisms need a paradigm shift that has gravel-bed rivers and their floodplains as the central focus and that prioritizes the maintenance or restoration of the intact structure and processes of these critically important systems throughout their length and breadth.

Science Advances↗

USGS2024

Fault activity in the San Gabriel Mountains, southern California, USA: Insights from landscape morphometrics, erosion rates, and fault-slip rates

Many studies use landscape form to determine spatial patterns of tectonic deformation, and these are particularly effective when paired with independent measures of rock uplift and erosion. Here, we use morphometric analyses and 10 Be catchment-averaged erosion rates, together with reverse slip rates from the Sierra Madre−Cucamonga fault zone, to reveal patterns in uplift, erosion, and fault activity in the range front of the San Gabriel Mountains in southern California, USA. Our analysis tests two prevailing hypotheses: (1) the range front of the San Gabriel Mountains is at steady state, in which rock uplift balances erosion and topographic elevations are stable throughout time, and (2) that west-to-east increases in elevation, relief, erosion rate, and stream-channel steepness across the interior of the massif reflect a parallel reverse-slip rate gradient on the range-bounding Sierra Madre−Cucamonga fault zone. We show that although deviations from steady state occur, the range-front hillslopes and stream channels are typically both well-connected and adjusted to patterns in Quaternary uplift driven by motion on the range-front fault network. Accordingly, landscape morphometrics, 10 Be erosion rates, and model erosion rates effectively image spatial and temporal patterns in uplift. Interpreted jointly, these data reveal comparable peak slip rates on the Sierra Madre−Cucamonga fault zone and show that they do not monotonically increase from west to east. Thus, the eastward-increasing gradients developed within the interior of the massif are not solely related to reverse slip on the range-front faults. Evaluated on shorter length scales (<10 km), morphometric data corroborate earlier descriptions of the Sierra Madre−Cucamonga fault zone as multiple individual faults or fault sections, with slip rates tapering toward fault tips. We infer that these patterns imply the predominance of independent fault or fault section ruptures throughout the Quaternary, though data cannot rule out the possibility of large, connected Sierra Madre−Cucamonga fault zone ruptures. Deeper in the hanging wall of the Sierra Madre−Cucamonga fault zone, secondary faults accommodate range-front uplift. Motion on these faults may contribute to active uplift of the highest topography within the massif, in addition to partly reconciling differences between geologic and geodetic Sierra Madre−Cucamonga fault zone reverse-slip rates. This study provides a new, unified perspective on tectonics and landscape evolution in the San Gabriel Mountains.

California↗

USGS2014

The Late Cretaceous Middle Fork caldera, its resurgent intrusion, and enduring landscape stability in east-central Alaska

Dissected caldera structures expose thick intracaldera tuff and, uncommonly, cogenetic shallow plutons, while remnants of correlative outflow tuffs deposited on the pre-eruption ground surface record elements of ancient landscapes. The Middle Fork caldera encompasses a 10 km × 20 km area of rhyolite welded tuff and granite porphyry in east-central Alaska, &sim;100 km west of the Yukon border. Intracaldera tuff is at least 850 m thick. The K-feldspar megacrystic granite porphyry is exposed over much of a 7 km × 12 km area having 650 m of relief within the western part of the caldera fill. Sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe with reverse geometry (SHRIMP-RG) analyses of zircon from intracaldera tuff, granite porphyry, and outflow tuff yield U-Pb ages of 70.0 ± 1.2, 69.7 ± 1.2, and 71.1 ± 0.5 Ma (95% confidence), respectively. An aeromagnetic survey indicates that the tuff is reversely magnetized, and, therefore, that the caldera-forming eruption occurred in the C31r geomagnetic polarity chron. The tuff and porphyry have arc geochemical signatures and a limited range in SiO 2 of 69 to 72 wt%. Although their phenocrysts differ in size and abundance, similar quartz + K-feldspar + plagioclase + biotite mineralogy, whole-rock geochemistry, and analytically indistinguishable ages indicate that the tuff and porphyry were comagmatic. Resorption of phenocrysts in tuff and porphyry suggests that these magmas formed by thermal rejuvenation of near-solidus or solidified crystal mush. A rare magmatic enclave (54% SiO 2 , arc geochemical signature) in the porphyry may be similar to parental magma and provides evidence of mafic magma and thermal input. The Middle Fork is a relatively well preserved caldera within a broad region of Paleozoic metamorphic rocks and Mesozoic plutons bounded by northeast-trending faults. In the relatively downdropped and less deeply exhumed crustal blocks, Cretaceous–Early Tertiary silicic volcanic rocks attest to long-term stability of the landscape. Within the Middle Fork caldera, the granite porphyry is interpreted to have been exposed by erosion of thick intracaldera tuff from an asymmetric resurgent dome. The Middle Fork of the North Fork of the Fortymile River incised an arcuate valley into and around the caldera fill on the west and north and may have cut down from within an original caldera moat. The 70 Ma land surface is preserved beneath proximal outflow tuff at the west margin of the caldera structure and beneath welded outflow tuff 16–23 km east-southeast of the caldera in a paleovalley. Within &sim;50 km of the Middle Fork caldera are 14 examples of Late Cretaceous (?)–Tertiary felsic volcanic and hypabyssal intrusive rocks that range in area from <1 km 2 to &sim;100 km 2 . Rhyolite dome clusters north and northwest of the caldera occupy tectonic basins associated with northeast-trending faults and are relatively little eroded. Lava of a latite complex, 12–19 km northeast of the caldera, apparently flowed into the paleovalley of the Middle Fork of the North Fork of the Fortymile River. To the northwest of the Middle Fork caldera, in the Mount Harper crustal block, mid-Cretaceous plutonic rocks are widely exposed, indicating greater total exhumation. To the southeast of the Middle Fork block, the Mount Veta block has been uplifted sufficiently to expose a ca. 68–66 Ma equigranular granitic pluton. Farther to the southeast, in the Kechumstuk block, the flat-lying outflow tuff remnant in Gold Creek and a regionally extensive high terrace indicate that the landscape there has been little modified since 70 Ma other than entrenchment of tributaries in response to post–2.7 Ma lowering of base level of the Yukon River associated with advance of the Cordilleran ice sheet.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Movement behavior in a dominant ungulate underlies successful adjustment to a rapidly changing landscape following megafire

Background Movement plays a key role in allowing animal species to adapt to sudden environmental shifts. Anthropogenic climate and land use change have accelerated the frequency of some of these extreme disturbances, including megafire. These megafires dramatically alter ecosystems and challenge the capacity of several species to adjust to a rapidly changing landscape. Ungulates and their movement behaviors play a central role in the ecosystem functions of fire-prone ecosystems around the world. Previous work has shown behavioral plasticity is an important mechanism underlying whether large ungulates are able to adjust to recent changes in their environments effectively. Ungulates may respond to the immediate effects of megafire by adjusting their movement and behavior, but how these responses persist or change over time following disturbance is poorly understood. Methods We examined how an ecologically dominant ungulate with strong site fidelity, Columbian black-tailed deer ( Odocoileus hemionus columbianus ), adjusted its movement and behavior in response to an altered landscape following a megafire. To do so, we collected GPS data from 21 individual female deer over the course of a year to compare changes in home range size over time and used resource selection functions (RSFs) and hidden Markov movement models (HMMs) to assess changes in behavior and habitat selection. Results We found compelling evidence of adaptive capacity across individual deer in response to megafire. Deer avoided exposed and severely burned areas that lack forage and could be riskier for predation immediately following megafire, but they later altered these behaviors to select areas that burned at higher severities, potentially to take advantage of enhanced forage. Conclusions These results suggest that despite their high site fidelity, deer can navigate altered landscapes to track rapid shifts in encounter risk with predators and resource availability. This successful adjustment of movement and behavior following extreme disturbance could help facilitate resilience at broader ecological scales.

California↗

USGS2022

Modeled interactions of mountain pine beetle and wildland fire under future climate and management scenarios for three western US landscapes

Mountain pine beetle (MPB) is a native disturbance agent across most pine forests in the western US. Climate changes will directly and indirectly impact frequencies and severities of MPB outbreaks, which can then alter fuel characteristics and wildland fire dynamics via changes in stand structure and composition. To investigate the importance of MPB to past and future landscape dynamics, we used the mechanistic, spatially explicit ecosystem process model FireBGCv2 to quantify interactions among climate, MPB, wildfire, fire suppression, and fuel management under historical and projected future climates for three western US landscapes. We compared simulated FireBGCv2 output from three MPB modules (none, simple empirical, and complex mechanistic) using three focus variables and six exploratory variables to evaluate the importance of MPB to landscape dynamics.

Fire Ecology↗

USGS2016

Latent spatial models and sampling design for landscape genetics

We propose a spatially-explicit approach for modeling genetic variation across space and illustrate how this approach can be used to optimize spatial prediction and sampling design for landscape genetic data. We propose a multinomial data model for categorical microsatellite allele data commonly used in landscape genetic studies, and introduce a latent spatial random effect to allow for spatial correlation between genetic observations. We illustrate how modern dimension reduction approaches to spatial statistics can allow for efficient computation in landscape genetic statistical models covering large spatial domains. We apply our approach to propose a retrospective spatial sampling design for greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) population genetics in the western United States.

Annals of Applied Statistics↗

USGS2014

Mapping large-area landscape suitability for honey bees to assess the influence of land-use change on sustainability of national pollination services

Pollination is a critical ecosystem service affected by various drivers of land-use change, such as policies and programs aimed at land resources, market values for crop commodities, local land-management decisions, and shifts in climate. The United States is the world's most active market for pollination services by honey bees, and the Northern Great Plains provide the majority of bee colonies used to meet the Nation's annual pollination needs. Legislation requiring increased production of biofuel crops, increasing commodity prices for crops of little nutritional value for bees in the Northern Great Plains, and reductions in government programs aimed at promoting land conservation are converging to alter the regional landscape in ways that challenge beekeepers to provide adequate numbers of hives for national pollination services. We developed a spatially explicit model that identifies sites with the potential to support large apiaries based on local-scale land-cover requirements for honey bees. We produced maps of potential apiary locations for North Dakota, a leading producer of honey, based on land-cover maps representing (1) an annual time series compiled from existing operational products and (2) a realistic scenario of land change. We found that existing land-cover products lack sufficient local accuracy to monitor actual changes in landscape suitability for honey bees, but our model proved informative for evaluating effects on suitability under scenarios of land change. The scenario we implemented was aligned with current drivers of land-use change in the Northern Great Plains and highlighted the importance of conservation lands in landscapes intensively and extensively managed for crops.

PLoS ONE↗