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USGS2016

Where is the hot rock and where is the ground water— Using CSAMT to map beneath and around Mount St. Helens

We have observed several new features in recent controlled-source audio-frequency magnetotelluric (CSAMT) soundings on and around Mount St. Helens, Washington State, USA. We have identified the approximate location of a strong electrical conductor at the edges of and beneath the 2004–08 dome. We interpret this conductor to be hot brine at the hot-intrusive-cold-rock interface. This contact can be found within 50 meters of the receiver station on Spine 5, which extruded between April and July of 2005. We have also mapped separate regional and glacier-dome aquifers, which lie one atop the other, out to considerable distances from the volcano.

Washington↗

USGS1991

New evidence on the hydrothermal system in Long Valley caldera, California, from wells, fluid sampling, electrical geophysics, and age determinations of hot-spring deposits

Data collected since 1985 from test drilling, fluid sampling, and geologic and geophysical investigations provide a clearer definition of the hydrothermal system in Long Valley caldera than was previously available. This information confirms the existence of high-temperature (> 200??C) reservoirs within the volcanic fill in parts of the west moat. These reservoirs contain fluids which are chemically similar to thermal fluids encountered in the central and eastern parts of the caldera. The roots of the present-day hydrothermal system (the source reservoir, principal zones of upflow, and the magmatic heat source) most likely occur within metamorphic basement rocks beneath the western part of the caldera. Geothermometer-temperature estimates for the source reservoir range from 214 to 248??C. Zones of upflow of hot water could exist beneath the plateau of moat rhyolite located west of the resurgent dome or beneath Mammoth Mountain. Lateral flow of thermal water away from such upflow zones through reservoirs in the Bishop Tuff and early rhyolite accounts for temperature reversals encountered in most existing wells. Dating of hot-spring deposits from active and inactive thermal areas confirms previous interpretations of the evolution of hydrothermal activity that suggest two periods of extensive hot-spring discharge, one peaking about 300 ka and another extending from about 40 ka to the present. The onset of hydrothermal activity around 40 ka coincides with the initiation of rhyolitic volcanism along the Mono-Inyo Craters volcanic chain that extends beneath the caldera's west moat. ?? 1991.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2015

Density dependence, whitebark pine, and vital rates of grizzly bears

Understanding factors influencing changes in population trajectory is important for effective wildlife management, particularly for populations of conservation concern. Annual population growth of the grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA has slowed from 4.2–7.6% during 1983–2001 to 0.3–2.2% during 2002–2011. Substantial changes in availability of a key food source and bear population density have occurred. Whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ), the seeds of which are a valuable but variable fall food for grizzly bears, has experienced substantial mortality primarily due to a mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae ) outbreak that started in the early 2000s. Positive growth rates of grizzly bears have resulted in populations reaching high densities in some areas and have contributed to continued range expansion. We tested research hypotheses to examine if changes in vital rates detected during the past decade were more associated with whitebark pine decline or, alternatively, increasing grizzly bear density. We focused our assessment on known-fate data to estimate survival of cubs-of-the-year (cubs), yearlings, and independent bears (≥2 yrs), and reproductive transition of females from having no offspring to having cubs. We used spatially and temporally explicit indices for grizzly bear density and whitebark pine mortality as individual covariates. Models indicated moderate support for an increase in survival of independent male bears over 1983–2012, whereas independent female survival did not change. Cub survival, yearling survival, and reproductive transition from no offspring to cubs all changed during the 30-year study period, with lower rates evident during the last 10–15 years. Cub survival and reproductive transition were negatively associated with an index of grizzly bear density, indicating greater declines where bear densities were higher. Our analyses did not support a similar relationship for the index of whitebark pine mortality. The results of our study support the interpretation that slowing of population growth during the last decade was associated more with increasing grizzly bear density than the decline in whitebark pine. Grizzly bear density and its potential effect on vital rates and population trajectory warrant consideration for management of the grizzly bear population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2011

Variations in eruption style during the 1931 A.D. eruption of Aniakchak volcano, Alaska

The 1931 A.D. eruption of Aniakchak volcano, Alaska, progressed from subplinian to effusive eruptive style and from trachydacite to basaltic andesite composition from multiple vent locations. Eyewitness accounts and new studies of deposit stratigraphy provide a combined narrative of eruptive events. Additional field, compositional, grain size, componentry, density, and grain morphology data document the influences on changing eruptive style as the eruption progressed. The eruption began on 1 May 1931 A.D. when a large subplinian eruption column produced vesicular juvenile-rich tephra. Subsequent activity was more intermittent, as magma interacted with groundwater and phreatomagmatic ash and lithic-rich tephra was dispersed up to 600 km downwind. Final erupted products were more mafic in composition and the eruption became more strombolian in style. Stratigraphic evidence suggests that two trachydacitic lava flows were erupted from separate but adjacent vents before the phreatomagmatic phase concluded and that basaltic andesite lava from a third vent began to effuse near the end of explosive activity. The estimated total bulk volume of the eruption is 0.9 km 3 , which corresponds to approximately 0.3 km 3 of magma. Eruption style changes are interpreted as follows: (1) a decrease in magma supply rate caused the change from subplinian to phreatomagmatic eruption; (2) a subsequent change in magma composition caused the transition from phreatomagmatic to strombolian eruption style. Additionally, the explosion and effusion of a similar magma composition from three separate vents indicates how the pre-existing caldera structure controlled the pathway of shallow magma ascent, thus influencing eruption style.

Alaska↗

USGS1997

Sedimentary history and mass flow structures of Chryse and Acidalia Planitiae, Mars

Geologic mapping and crater counting in Chryse and Acidalia Planitiae (GAP) reveal five major sedimentary deposits of Hesperian to Early Amazonian age, including (1) a mass flow deposited during the Early Hesperian near Deuteronilus Mensae (northeast of the map region) that may have resulted from the carving of Kasei Valles, >3000 km southwest of the exposed part of the deposit; (2) knobby plains material consisting of channel (likely; from Simud and Tiu Valles and possibly Ares and Shalbatana Valles) and mass-wasting deposits in central and eastern CAP; (3) material largely from Maja and Ares Valles emplaced in at least western and southern CAP (outcrops in southern Chryse Planitia developed thermokarst); (4) a thin mass flow covering much of southern Chryse Planitia that emanated from Simud and Tiu Valles; and (5) a thick, extensive (perhaps >3500 km across) mass flow deposit in central and northern CAP derived from accumulation and backflow of the preceding thin mass flow or perhaps melting of polar deposits. Other possible deposits may not be recognizable owing to burial by younger materials or a lack of morphologic signature. Various associated landforms appear to be consistent with the mass flow interpretations, including lobate and linear scarps along deposit edges, fractures related to desiccation of thick sediments, troughs, and ridges near the edges of the deposit indicative of secondary mass movement and deformation, pitted domes and fissure-fed flows possibly formed by sedimentary (mud) eruptions, and longitudinal channel grooves perhaps formed by roller vortices. No convincing evidence for paleoshorelines or stagnant ice sheets is found in CAP. These findings suggest that mass flow and hyperconcentrated flooding may have been the predominant processes of outflow-channel dissection in CAP. Elsewhere in the northern plains, similar landforms are prevalent. The mass flow interpretation does not require either multiple episodes of extraordinarily high water-discharge rates achieved by freeing huge volumes of water from the crust, repetitive recycling of immense volumes of water into highland aquifers at the heads of Chryse channels, or profound climate change. Mars Pathfinder will most likely land on and inspect the surface of the thin mass flow that originated from the canyons of Simud and Tiu Valles.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2012

Recent movement on the Garlock Fault as suggested by water level fluctuations in a well in Fremont Valley, California

Water levels have been continuously recorded since March 1978 in a well in Fremont Valley, where several strands of the adjacent Garlock fault zone have exhibited both left-lateral displacement and components of normal displacement. Differences in water levels indicate that a fault segment lies between the observation well and a nearby irrigation well. During the 4-year recording period, six sharp fluctuations, or “spikes,” were noted. These fluctuations, occurring over 2- to 4-day periods, have amplitudes of 15–30 cm. They appear to be the result of creep events on a nearby fault. Two types of creep events are plausible: (1) normal slip on an en echelon trace of the Garlock fault less than 300 m south of the well, with the north side up relative to Fremont Valley or (2) left-lateral slip on the same fault. Because of the nature of the fluctuations we favor the latter interpretation. Dislocation models utilizing exponential, arc tangent, and skewed cosine functions were used to analyze the water level fluctuations, associated pressure distribution, and fault displacements. The results suggest that creep on the fault ranges from several millimeters to a centimeter for individual events. Estimates of cumulative creep for the period 1978–1982 range from 20 to 50 mm, depending on the particular model employed.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2012

Strategies for soil quality assessment using VNIR gyperspectral spectroscopy in a western Kenya Chronosequence

Visible and near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (VNIRS) is a rapid and nondestructive method that can predict multiple soil properties simultaneously, but its application in multidimensional soil quality (SQ) assessment in the tropics still needs to be further assessed. In this study, VNIRS (350–2500 nm) was employed to analyze 227 air-dried soil samples of Ultisols from a soil chronosequence in western Kenya and assess 16 SQ indicators. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) was validated using the full-site cross-validation method by grouping samples from each farm or forest site. Most suitable models successfully predicted SQ indicators (R 2 ≥ 0.80; ratio of performance to deviation [RPD] ≥ 2.00) including soil organic matter (OM LOI ), active C, Ca, cation exchange capacity (CEC), and clay. Moderately-well predicted indicators (0.50 ≤ R 2 < 0.80; 1.40 ≤ RPD < 2.00) were water stable aggregation (WSA), Cu, silt, Mg, pH, sand, water content at permanent wilting point (Θ pwp ), and field capacity (Θ fc ). Poorly predicted indicators (R 2 < 0.50; RPD < 1.40) were EC, S, P, available water capacity (AWC), K, Zn, and penetration resistance. Combining VNIRS with selected field- and laboratory-measured SQ indicator values increased predictability. Furthermore, VNIRS showed moderate to substantial agreement in predicting interpretive SQ scores and a composite soil quality index (CSQI) especially when combined with directly measured SQ indicator values. In conclusion, VNIRS has good potential for low cost, rapid assessment of physical and biological SQ indicators but conventional soil chemical tests may need to be retained to provide comprehensive SQ assessments.

Western Kenya↗

USGS2009

A preliminary study of older hot spring alteration in Sevenmile Hole, Grand Canyon of the Yellowstone River, Yellowstone Caldera, Wyoming

Erosion in the Grand Canyon of the Yellowstone River, Yellowstone Caldera (640 ka), Wyoming, has exposed a cross section of older hydrothermal alteration in the canyon walls. The altered outcrops of the post-collapse tuff of Sulphur Creek (480 ka) extend from the canyon rim to more than 300 m beneath it. The hydrothermal minerals are zoned, with an advanced argillic alteration consisting of an association of quartz (opal) + kaolinite ± alunite ± dickite, and an argillic or potassic alteration association with quartz + illite ± adularia. Disseminated fine-grained pyrite or marcasite is ubiquitous in both alteration types. These alteration associations are characteristic products of shallow volcanic epithermal environments. The contact between the two alteration types is about 100 m beneath the rim. By analogy to other active geothermal systems including active hydrothermal springs in the Yellowstone Caldera, the transition from kaolinite to illite occurred at temperatures in the range 150 to 170 °C. An 40 Ar/ 39 Ar age on alunite of 154,000 ± 16,000 years suggests that hydrothermal activity has been ongoing since at least that time. A northwest-trending linear array of extinct and active hot spring centers in the Sevenmile Hole area implies a deeper structural control for the upflowing hydrothermal fluids. We interpret this deeper structure to be the Yellowstone Caldera ring fault that is covered by the younger tuff of Sulphur Creek. The Sevenmile Hole altered area lies at the eastern end of a band of hydrothermal centers that may mark the buried extension of the Yellowstone Caldera ring fault across the northern part of the Caldera.

Wyoming↗

USGS1996

A depositional model for the Taylor coal bed, Martin and Johnson counties, eastern Kentucky

This study investigated the Taylor coal bed in Johnson and Martin counties, eastern Kentucky, using field and petrographic techniques to develop a depositional model of the coal bed. Petrography and chemistry of the coal bed were examined. Multiple benches of the Taylor coal bed were correlated over a 10 km distance. Three sites were studied in detail. The coal at the western and eastern sites were relatively thin and split by thick clastic partings. The coal at the central site was the thickest and unsplit. Two major clastic partings are included in the coal bed. Each represents a separate and distinct fluvial splay. The Taylor is interpreted to have developed on a coastal plain with periodic flooding from nearby, structurally-controlled fluvial systems. Doming is unlikely due to the petrographic and chemical trends, which are inconsistent with modern Indonesian models. The depositional history and structural and stratigraphic setting suggest contemporaneous structural influence on thickness and quality of the Taylor coal bed in this area.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

USGS2011

A distribution-based parameterization for improved tomographic imaging of solute plumes

Difference geophysical tomography (e.g. radar, resistivity and seismic) is used increasingly for imaging fluid flow and mass transport associated with natural and engineered hydrologic phenomena, including tracer experiments, in situ remediation and aquifer storage and recovery. Tomographic data are collected over time, inverted and differenced against a background image to produce ‘snapshots’ revealing changes to the system; these snapshots readily provide qualitative information on the location and morphology of plumes of injected tracer, remedial amendment or stored water. In principle, geometric moments (i.e. total mass, centres of mass, spread, etc.) calculated from difference tomograms can provide further quantitative insight into the rates of advection, dispersion and mass transfer; however, recent work has shown that moments calculated from tomograms are commonly biased, as they are strongly affected by the subjective choice of regularization criteria. Conventional approaches to regularization (Tikhonov) and parametrization (image pixels) result in tomograms which are subject to artefacts such as smearing or pixel estimates taking on the sign opposite to that expected for the plume under study. Here, we demonstrate a novel parametrization for imaging plumes associated with hydrologic phenomena. Capitalizing on the mathematical analogy between moment-based descriptors of plumes and the moment-based parameters of probability distributions, we design an inverse problem that (1) is overdetermined and computationally efficient because the image is described by only a few parameters, (2) produces tomograms consistent with expected plume behaviour (e.g. changes of one sign relative to the background image), (3) yields parameter estimates that are readily interpreted for plume morphology and offer direct insight into hydrologic processes and (4) requires comparatively few data to achieve reasonable model estimates. We demonstrate the approach in a series of numerical examples based on straight-ray difference-attenuation radar monitoring of the transport of an ionic tracer, and show that the methodology outlined here is particularly effective when limited data are available.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS1979

Vector analysis of chemical variation in the lavas of Parícutin volcano, Mexico

Compositional variations in the lavas of Parícutin volcano, Mexico, have been examined by an extended method of Q-mode factor analysis. Each sample composition is treated as a vector projected from an original eight-dimensional space into a vector system of three dimensions. The compositions represented by the vectors after projection are closely similar to the original compositions except for Na2O and Fe2O3. The vectors in the three-dimensional system cluster about three different planes that represent three stages of compositional change in the Parícutin lavas. Because chemical data on the compositions of the minerals in the lavas are presently lacking, interpretations of the mineral phases that may have been involved in fractional crystallization are based on CIPW norm calculations. Changes during the first stage are attributed largely to the fractional crystallization of plagioclase and olivine. Changes during the second stage can be explained by the separation of plagioclase and pyroxene. Changes during the final stage may have resulted mostly from the assimilation of a granitic material, as previously proposed by R. E. Wilcox.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe↗

USGS2005

Reply to “Commentary: Assessment of past infiltration fluxes through Yucca Mountain on the basis of the secondary mineral record—Is it a viable methodology?” by Y.V. Dublyansky and S.Z. Smirnov

Many of the comments by Dublyansky and Smirnov (2005) on Marshall et al. (2003) reflect a longstanding debate over the origin of secondary calcite and opal deposits found in cavities and on fracture surfaces at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, site of a proposed high-level nuclear waste repository (US Department of Energy, 2001). These comments require consideration of data and interpretations beyond the scope of Marshall et al. (2003). Dublyansky et al. (2004) and Dublyansky et al. (2005) also have commented on papers published by Whelan et al. (2002) and Wilson et al. (2003), and we will refer to the replies to those comments (Whelan et al., 2004, Wilson and Cline, 2005) in addressing the comments that go beyond the scope of Marshall et al. (2003).

Nevada↗

USGS2020

Paired air-water annual temperature patterns reveal hydrogeological controls on stream thermal regimes at watershed to continental scales

Despite decades of research into air and stream temperature dynamics, paired air-water annual temperature signals have been underutilized to characterize watershed processes. Annual stream temperature dynamics are useful in classifying fundamental thermal regimes and can enhance process-based interpretation of stream temperature controls, including deep and shallow groundwater discharge, when paired with air signals. In this study, we investigated multi-scale variability in annual paired air-water temperature patterns using sine-wave linear regressions of multi-year daily temperature data from streams of various sizes. A total of 311 sites from two spatially intensive regional datasets (Shenandoah National Park and Olympic Experimental State Forest) and a spatially extensive national dataset spanning the contiguous United States (U.S. Geological Survey gages) were evaluated. We calculated three annual air-water thermal metrics (mean ratio, phase lag, and amplitude ratio) to deduce the influence of groundwater and other watershed processes on stream thermal regimes at multiple spatial scales. Site-specific values of the three annual air-water thermal metrics ranged from 0.69 to 5.29 (mean ratio), −9 to 40 days (phase lag), and 0.29 to 1.12 (amplitude ratio). Regional patterns in the annual thermal metrics revealed persistent yet spatially variable influences of shallow groundwater discharge and high levels of thermal variability within watersheds, indicating the importance of local hydrogeological controls on stream temperature. Furthermore, annual thermal metric patterns from the regional datasets were generally concordant with the national dataset suggesting the utility of these annual thermal metrics for analysis at multiple scales. Analysis of the national dataset showed that previously defined thermal regimes based on water temperature alone could be further refined using air-water metrics and these metrics were related to physiographic watershed characteristics such as contributing area, elevation, and slope. This research demonstrates the importance of spatial scale and heterogeneity for inferring hydrological process in streams and provides guidance for the interpretation of annual air-water temperature metrics that can be efficiently applied to the growing database of multi-year temperature records. Results from this research can aid in the prediction of future thermal habitat suitability for coldwater-adapted species at ecologically and management-relevant spatial scales with readily available data.

Continental United States↗

USGS2010

Internal structure, fault rocks, and inferences regarding deformation, fluid flow, and mineralization in the seismogenic Stillwater normal fault, Dixie Valley, Nevada

Outcrop mapping and fault-rock characterization of the Stillwater normal fault zone in Dixie Valley, Nevada are used to document and interpret ancient hydrothermal fluid flow and its possible relationship to seismic deformation. The fault zone is composed of distinct structural and hydrogeological components. Previous work on the fault rocks is extended to the map scale where a distinctive fault core shows a spectrum of different fault-related breccias. These include predominantly clast-supported breccias with angular clasts that are cut by zones containing breccias with rounded clasts that are also clast supported. These are further cut by breccias that are predominantly matrix supported with angular and rounded clasts. The fault-core breccias are surrounded by a heterogeneously fractured damage zone. Breccias are bounded between major, silicified slip surfaces, forming large pod-like structures, systematically oriented with long axes parallel to slip. Matrix-supported breccias have multiply brecciated, angular and rounded clasts revealing episodic deformation and fluid flow. These breccias have a quartz-rich matrix with microcrystalline anhedral, equant, and pervasively conformable mosaic texture. The breccia pods are interpreted to have formed by decompression boiling and rapid precipitation of hydrothermal fluids whose flow was induced by coseismic, hybrid dilatant-shear deformation and hydraulic connection to a geothermal reservoir. The addition of hydrothermal silica cement localized in the core at the map scale causes fault-zone widening, local sealing, and mechanical heterogeneities that impact the evolution of the fault zone throughout the seismic cycle. ?? 2010.

Journal of Structural Geology↗

USGS2003

An empirical approach to inversion of an unconventional helicopter electromagnetic dataset

A helicopter electromagnetic (HEM) survey acquired at the U.S. Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) used a modification of a traditional mining airborne method flown at low levels for detailed characterization of shallow waste sites. The low sensor height, used to increase resolution, invalidates standard assumptions used in processing HEM data. Although the survey design strategy was sound, traditional interpretation techniques, routinely used in industry, proved ineffective. Processed data and apparent resistivity maps were severely distorted, and hence unusable, due to low flight height effects, high magnetic permeability of the basalt host, and the conductive, three-dimensional nature of the waste site targets.To accommodate these interpretation challenges, we modified a one-dimensional inversion routine to include a linear term in the objective function that allows for the magnetic and three-dimensional electromagnetic responses in the in-phase data. Although somewhat ad hoc, the use of this term in the inverse routine, referred to as the shift factor, was successful in defining the waste sites and reducing noise due to the low flight height and magnetic characteristics of the host rock. Many inversion scenarios were applied to the data and careful analysis was necessary to determine the parameters appropriate for interpretation, hence the approach was empirical. Data from three areas were processed with this scheme to highlight different interpretational aspects of the method. Wastes sites were delineated with the shift terms in two of the areas, allowing for separation of the anthropomorphic targets from the natural one-dimensional host. In the third area, the estimated resistivity and the shift factor were used for geological mapping. The high magnetic content of the native soil enabled the mapping of disturbed soil with the shift term. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Journal of Applied Geophysics↗

USGS1994

Seismic images of a tectonic subdivision of the Greenville Orogen beneath lakes Ontario and Erie

New seismic data from marine air-gun and Vibroseis profiles in Lake Ontario and Lake Erie provide images of subhorizontal Phanerozoic sediments underlain by a remarkable series of easterly dipping reflections that extends from the crystalline basement to the lower crust. These reflections are interpreted as structural features of crustal-scale subdivisions within the Grenville Orogen. Broadly deformed, imbricated, and overlapping thrust sheets within the western Central Metasedimentary Belt are succeeded to the west by a complex zone of easterly dipping, apparent thrust faults that are interpreted as a southwest subsurface extension of the boundary zone between the Central Metasedimentary Belt and the Central Gneiss Belt. The interpreted Central Metasedimentary Belt boundary zone has a characteristic magnetic anomaly that provides a link from the adjacent ends of lakes Ontario and Erie to structures exposed 150&ensp;km to the north. Less reflective, west-dipping events are interpreted as structures within the eastern Central Gneiss Belt. The seismic interpretation augments current tectonic models that suggest the exposed ductile structures formed at depth as a result of crustal shortening along northwest-verging thrust faults. Relatively shallow reflections across the boundary region suggest local, Late Proterozoic extensional troughs containing post-Grenville sediments, preserved possibly as a result of pre-Paleozoic reactivation of basement structures.

Lake Erie, Lake Ontario↗

USGS1974

Lunar highlands volcanism implications from Luna 20 and Apollo 16

Highlands materials sampled at the Apollo 16 and Luna 20 sites represent units of distinctive morphology that are widespread on the lunar nearside. Samples from the Apollo 16 site represent hilly and furrowed materials of the Descartes highlands and Cayley Formation. Materials were collected by Luna 20 from terrain resembling the Descartes terrain. Most photogeologic interpretations of these units favored volcanic origins, but the samples fail to support this interpretation. Luna 20 soil fragments are mainly glassy microbreccia with lithic inclusions of fine-grained hornfels; less than 3 percent of the fragments have textures of volcanic rocks, and most of these are likely crystalline products of impact melting. Apollo 16 soils formed on ejecta derived from a plutonic anorthosite-norite-troctolite suite. The similarity of Luna 20 soils indicates that these too formed as regolith on ejecta of anorthosite-norite-troctolitc composition. Interpretation of the samples from the two locations now suggests that hilly and furrowed terrains, previously thought to be of volcanic origin, are impact ejecta; in view of the plutonic nature of the source rocks and their extensive fusion and metamorphism, it is likely that the ejecta were derived from multiring basins. At one point, the Apollo 16 site, the Cayley Formation is composed of basin ejecta.

Journal of Research of the U.S. Geological Survey↗

USGS2017

Interactions of estuarine shoreline infrastructure with multiscale sea level variability

Sea level rise increases the risk of storms and other short‐term water‐rise events, because it sets a higher water level such that coastal surges become more likely to overtop protections and cause floods. To protect coastal communities, it is necessary to understand the interaction among multiday and tidal sea level variabilities, coastal infrastructure, and sea level rise. We performed a series of numerical simulations for San Francisco Bay to examine two shoreline scenarios and a series of short‐term and long‐term sea level variations. The two shoreline configurations include the existing topography and a coherent full‐bay containment that follows the existing land boundary with an impermeable wall. The sea level variability consists of a half‐meter perturbation, with duration ranging from 2 days to permanent (i.e., sea level rise). The extent of coastal flooding was found to increase with the duration of the high‐water‐level event. The nonlinear interaction between these intermediate scale events and astronomical tidal forcing only contributes ∼1% of the tidal heights; at the same time, the tides are found to be a dominant factor in establishing the evolution and diffusion of multiday high water events. Establishing containment at existing shorelines can change the tidal height spectrum up to 5%, and the impact of this shoreline structure appears stronger in the low‐frequency range. To interpret the spatial and temporal variability at a wide range of frequencies, Optimal Dynamic Mode Decomposition is introduced to analyze the coastal processes and an inverse method is applied to determine the coefficients of a 1‐D diffusion wave model that quantify the impact of bottom roughness, tidal basin geometry, and shoreline configuration on the high water events

Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans↗