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Results for “Ecosphere”

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At least 433 records · Page 24Linked to original sources

USGS2012

Interactions of tissue and fertilizer nitrogen on decomposition dynamics of lignin-rich conifer litter

High tissue nitrogen (N) accelerates decomposition of high-quality leaf litter in the early phases of mass loss, but the influence of initial tissue N variation on the decomposition of lignin-rich litter is less resolved. Because environmental changes such as atmospheric N deposition and elevated CO 2 can alter tissue N levels within species more rapidly than they alter the species composition of ecosystems, it is important to consider how within-species variation in tissue N may shape litter decomposition and associated N dynamics. Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii ) is a widespread lignin-rich conifer that dominates forests of high carbon (C) storage across western North America, and displays wide variation in tissue and litter N that reflects landscape variation in soil N. We collected eight unique Douglas-fir litter sources that spanned a two-fold range in initial N concentrations (0.67–1.31%) with a narrow range of lignin (29–35%), and examined relationships between initial litter chemistry, decomposition, and N dynamics in both ambient and N fertilized plots at four sites over 3 yr. High initial litter N slowed decomposition rates in both early (0.67 yr) and late (3 yr) stages in unfertilized plots. Applications of N fertilizer to litters accelerated early-stage decomposition, but slowed late-stage decomposition, and most strongly affected low-N litters, which equalized decomposition rates across litters regardless of initial N concentrations. Decomposition of N-fertilized litters correlated positively with initial litter manganese (Mn) concentrations, with litter Mn variation reflecting faster turnover of canopy foliage in high N sites, producing younger litterfall with high N and low Mn. Although both internal and external N inhibited decomposition at 3 yr, most litters exhibited net N immobilization, with strongest immobilization in low-N litter and in N-fertilized plots. Our observation for lignin-rich litter that high initial N can slow decomposition yet accelerate N release differs from findings where litter quality variation across species promotes coupled C and N release during decomposition. We suggest reevaluation of ecosystem models and projected global change effects to account for a potential decoupling of ecosystem C and N feedbacks through litter decomposition in lignin-rich conifer forests.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2012

Guidelines for a graph-theoretic implementation of structural equation modeling

Structural equation modeling (SEM) is increasingly being chosen by researchers as a framework for gaining scientific insights from the quantitative analyses of data. New ideas and methods emerging from the study of causality, influences from the field of graphical modeling, and advances in statistics are expanding the rigor, capability, and even purpose of SEM. Guidelines for implementing the expanded capabilities of SEM are currently lacking. In this paper we describe new developments in SEM that we believe constitute a third-generation of the methodology. Most characteristic of this new approach is the generalization of the structural equation model as a causal graph. In this generalization, analyses are based on graph theoretic principles rather than analyses of matrices. Also, new devices such as metamodels and causal diagrams, as well as an increased emphasis on queries and probabilistic reasoning, are now included. Estimation under a graph theory framework permits the use of Bayesian or likelihood methods. The guidelines presented start from a declaration of the goals of the analysis. We then discuss how theory frames the modeling process, requirements for causal interpretation, model specification choices, selection of estimation method, model evaluation options, and use of queries, both to summarize retrospective results and for prospective analyses. The illustrative example presented involves monitoring data from wetlands on Mount Desert Island, home of Acadia National Park. Our presentation walks through the decision process involved in developing and evaluating models, as well as drawing inferences from the resulting prediction equations. In addition to evaluating hypotheses about the connections between human activities and biotic responses, we illustrate how the structural equation (SE) model can be queried to understand how interventions might take advantage of an environmental threshold to limit Typha invasions. The guidelines presented provide for an updated definition of the SEM process that subsumes the historical matrix approach under a graph-theory implementation. The implementation is also designed to permit complex specifications and to be compatible with various estimation methods. Finally, they are meant to foster the use of probabilistic reasoning in both retrospective and prospective considerations of the quantitative implications of the results.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2012

Competition favors elk over beaver in a riparian willow ecosystem

Beaver (Castor spp.) conservation requires an understanding of their complex interactions with competing herbivores. Simulation modeling offers a controlled environment to examine long-term dynamics in ecosystems driven by uncontrollable variables. We used a new version of the SAVANNA ecosystem model to investigate beaver (C. canadensis) and elk (Cervus elaphus) competition for willow (Salix spp.). We initialized the model with field data from Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA, to simulate a 4-ha riparian ecosystem containing beaver, elk, and willow. We found beaver persisted indefinitely when elk density was <= 20 elk km (2). Beaver persistence decreased exponentially as elk density increased from 30 to 60 elk km(2), which suggests the presence of an ecological threshold. The interaction of beaver and elk herbivory shifted the size distribution of willow plants from tall to short when elk densities were >= 30 elk km (2). The loss of tall willow preceded rapid beaver declines, thus willow condition may predict beaver population trajectory in natural environments. Beaver were able to persist with slightly higher elk densities if beaver alternated their use of foraging sites in a rest-rotation pattern rather than maintained continuous use. Thus, we found asymmetrical competition for willow strongly favored elk over beaver in a simulated montane ecosystem. Finally, we discuss application of the SAVANNA model and mechanisms of competition relative to beaver persistence as metapopulations, ecological resistance and alternative state models, and ecosystem regulation.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2013

Deer density and disease prevalence influence transmission of Chronic Wasting Disease in White-tailed Deer

Host-parasite dynamics and strategies for managing infectious diseases of wildlife depend on the functional relationship between disease transmission rates and host density. However, the disease transmission function is rarely known for free-living wildlife, leading to uncertainty regarding the impacts of diseases on host populations and effective control actions. We evaluated the influence of deer density, landscape features, and soil clay content on transmission of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in young (<2-year-old) white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) in south-central Wisconsin, USA. We evaluated how frequency-dependent, density-dependent, and intermediate transmission models predicted CWD incidence rates in harvested yearling deer. An intermediate transmission model, incorporating both disease prevalence and density of infected deer, performed better than simple density- and frequency-dependent models. Our results indicate a combination of social structure, non-linear relationships between infectious contact and deer density, and distribution of disease among groups are important factors driving CWD infection in young deer. The landscape covariates % deciduous forest cover and forest edge density also were positively associated with infection rates, but soil clay content had no measurable influences on CWD transmission. Lack of strong density-dependent transmission rates indicates that controlling CWD by reducing deer density will be difficult. The consequences of non-linear disease transmission and aggregation of disease on cervid populations deserves further consideration.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2012

Context-dependent planktivory: interacting effects of turbidity and predation risk on adaptive foraging

By shaping species interactions, adaptive phenotypic plasticity can profoundly influence ecosystems. Predicting such outcomes has proven difficult, however, owing in part to the dependence of plasticity on the environmental context. Of particular relevance are environmental factors that affect sensory performance in organisms in ways that alter the tradeoffs associated with adaptive phenotypic responses. We explored the influence of turbidity, which simultaneously and differentially affects the sensory performance of consumers at multiple trophic levels, on the indirect effect of a top predator (piscivorous fish) on a basal prey resource (zooplankton) that is mediated through changes in the plastic foraging behavior of an intermediate consumer (zooplanktivorous fish). We first generated theoretical predictions of the adaptive foraging response of a zooplanktivore across wide gradients of turbidity and predation risk by a piscivore. Our model predicted that predation risk can change the negative relationship between intermediate consumer foraging and turbidity into a humped-shaped (unimodal) one in which foraging is low in both clear and highly turbid conditions due to foraging-related risk and visual constraints, respectively. Consequently, the positive trait-mediated indirect effect (TMIE) of the top predator on the basal resource is predicted to peak at low turbidity and decline thereafter until it reaches an asymptote of zero at intermediate turbidity levels (when foraging equals that which is predicted when the top predator is absent). We used field observations and a laboratory experiment to test our model predictions. In support, we found humped-shaped relationships between planktivory and turbidity for several zooplanktivorous fishes from diverse freshwater ecosystems with predation risk. Further, our experiment demonstrated that predation risk reduced zooplanktivory by yellow perch (Perca flavescens) at a low turbidity, but had no effect on consumption at an intermediate turbidity. Together, our theoretical and empirical findings show how the environmental context can govern the strength of TMIEs by influencing consumer sensory performance and how these effects can become realized in nature over wide environmental gradients. Additionally, our hump-shaped foraging curve represents an important departure from the conventional view of turbidity's effect on planktivorous fishes, thus potentially requiring a reconceptualization of turbidity's impact on aquatic food-web interactions.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2012

Changing restoration rules: exotic bivalves interact with residence time and depth to control phytoplankton productivity

Non-native species are a prevalent ecosystem stressor that can interact with other stressors to confound resource management and restoration. We examine how interactions between physical habitat attributes and a particular category of non-native species (invasive bivalves) influence primary production in aquatic ecosystems. Using mathematical models, we show how intuitive relationships between phytoplankton productivity and controllable physical factors (water depth, hydraulic transport time) that hold in the absence of bivalves can be complicated—and even reversed—by rapid bivalve grazing. In light-limited environments without bivalves, shallow, hydrodynamically “slow” habitats should generally have greater phytoplankton biomass and productivity than deeper, “faster” habitats. But shallower, slower environments can be less productive than deeper, faster ones if benthic grazing is strong. Moreover, shallower and slower waters exhibit a particularly broad range of possible productivity outcomes that can depend on whether bivalves are present. Since it is difficult to predict the response of non-native bivalves to habitat restoration, outcomes for new shallow, slow environments can be highly uncertain. Habitat depth and transport time should therefore not be used as indicators of phytoplankton biomass and production where bivalve colonization is possible. This study provides for ecosystem management a particular example of a broad lesson: abiotic ecosystem stressors should be managed with explicit consideration of interactions with other major (including biotic) stressors. We discuss the applicability and management implications of our models and results for a range of aquatic system types, with a case study focused on the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (California, USA). Simple mathematical models like those used here can illuminate interactions between ecosystem stressors and provide process-based guidance for resource managers as they develop strategies to augment valued populations, restore habitats, and manipulate ecosystem functions.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2013

Predicting breeding shorebird distributions on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska

The Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska is an important region for millions of migrating and nesting shorebirds. However, this region is threatened by climate change and increased human development (e.g., oil and gas production) that have the potential to greatly impact shorebird populations and breeding habitat in the near future. Because historic data on shorebird distributions in the ACP are very coarse and incomplete, we sought to develop detailed, contemporary distribution maps so that the potential impacts of climate-mediated changes and development could be ascertained. To do this, we developed and mapped habitat suitability indices for eight species of shorebirds (Black-bellied Plover [Pluvialis squatarola], American Golden-Plover [Pluvialis dominica], Semipalmated Sandpiper [Calidris pusilla], Pectoral Sandpiper [Calidris melanotos], Dunlin [Calidris alpina], Long-billed Dowitcher [Limnodromus scolopaceus], Red-necked Phalarope [Phalaropus lobatus], and Red Phalarope [Phalaropus fulicarius]) that commonly breed within the ACP of Alaska. These habitat suitability models were based on 767 plots surveyed during nine years between 1998 and 2008 (surveys were not conducted in 2003 and 2005), using single-visit rapid area searches during territory establishment and incubation (8 June, 1 July). Species specific habitat suitability indices were developed and mapped using presence-only modeling techniques (partitioned Mahalanobis distance) and landscape environmental variables. For most species, habitat suitability was greater at lower elevations (i.e., near the coast and river deltas) and lower within upland habitats. Accuracy of models was high for all species, ranging from 65 -98%. Our models predicted that the largest fraction of suitable habitat for the majority of species occurred within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, with highly suitable habitat also occurring within coastal areas of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge west to Prudhoe Bay.

Alaska↗

USGS2013

Moving across the border: Modeling migratory bat populations

The migration of animals across long distances and between multiple habitats presents a major challenge for conservation. For the migratory Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana), these challenges include identifying and protecting migratory routes and critical roosts in two countries, the United States and Mexico. Knowledge and conservation of bat migratory routes is critical in the face of increasing threats from climate change and wind turbines that might decrease migratory survival. We employ a new modeling approach for bat migration, network modeling, to simulate migratory routes between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding habitat in northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. We use the model to identify key migratory routes and the roosts of greatest conservation value to the overall population. We measure roost importance by the degree to which the overall bat population declined when the roost was removed from the model. The major migratory routes—those with the greatest number of migrants—were between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding roosts in Texas and the northern Mexican states of Sonora and Nuevo Leon. The summer breeding roosts in Texas, Sonora, and Nuevo Leon were the most important for maintaining population numbers and network structure – these are also the largest roosts. This modeling approach contributes to conservation efforts by identifying the most influential areas for bat populations, and can be used as a tool to improve our understanding of bat migration for other species. We anticipate this approach will help direct coordination of habitat protection across borders.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2013

Seasonal persistence of marine-derived nutrients in south-central Alaskan salmon streams

Spawning salmon deliver annual pulses of marine-derived nutrients (MDN) to riverine ecosystems around the Pacific Rim, leading to increased growth and condition in aquatic and riparian biota. The influence of pulsed resources may last for extended periods of time when recipient food webs have effective storage mechanisms, yet few studies have tracked the seasonal persistence of MDN. With this as our goal, we sampled stream water chemistry and selected stream and riparian biota spring through fall at 18 stations (in six watersheds) that vary widely in spawner abundance and at nine stations (in three watersheds) where salmon runs were blocked by waterfalls. We then developed regression models that related dissolved nutrient concentrations and biochemical measures of MDN assimilation to localized spawner density across these 27 stations. Stream water ammonium-N and orthophosphate-P concentrations increased with spawner density during the summer salmon runs, but responses did not persist into the following fall. The effect of spawner density on δ 15 N in generalist macroinvertebrates and three independent MDN metrics (δ 15 N, δ 34 S, and ω3:ω6 fatty acids) in juvenile Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma) was positive and similar during each season, indicating that MDN levels in biota increased with spawner abundance and were maintained for at least nine months after inputs. Delta 15 N in a riparian plant, horsetail (Equisetum fluviatile), and scraper macroinvertebrates did not vary with spawner density in any season, suggesting a lack of MDN assimilation by these lower trophic levels. Our results demonstrate the ready assimilation of MDN by generalist consumers and the persistence of this pulsed subsidy in these organisms through the winter and into the next growing season.

Alaska↗

USGS2013

Key landscape ecology metrics for assessing climate change adaptation options: Rate of change and patchiness of impacts

Under a changing climate, devising strategies to help stakeholders adapt to alterations to ecosystems and their services is of utmost importance. In western North America, diminished snowpack and river flows are causing relatively gradual, homogeneous (system-wide) changes in ecosystems and services. In addition, increased climate variability is also accelerating the incidence of abrupt and patchy disturbances such as fires, floods and droughts. This paper posits that two key variables often considered in landscape ecology—the rate of change and the degree of patchiness of change—can aid in developing climate change adaptation strategies. We use two examples from the “borderland” region of the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. In piñon-juniper woodland die-offs that occurred in the southwestern United States during the 2000s, ecosystem services suddenly crashed in some parts of the system while remaining unaffected in other locations. The precise timing and location of die-offs was uncertain. On the other hand, slower, homogeneous change, such as the expected declines in water supply to the Colorado River delta, will likely impact the entire ecosystem, with ecosystem services everywhere in the delta subject to alteration, and all users likely exposed. The rapidity and spatial heterogeneity of faster, patchy climate change exemplified by tree die-off suggests that decision-makers and local stakeholders would be wise to operate under a Rawlsian “veil of ignorance,” and implement adaptation strategies that allow ecosystem service users to equitably share the risk of sudden loss of ecosystem services before actual ecosystem changes occur. On the other hand, in the case of slower, homogeneous, system-wide impacts to ecosystem services as exemplified by the Colorado River delta, adaptation strategies can be implemented after the changes begin, but will require a fundamental rethinking of how ecosystems and services are used and valued. In sum, understanding how the rate of change and degree of patchiness of change will constrain adaptive options is a critical consideration in preparing for climate change.

Colorado River Delta↗

USGS2013

Plant responses, climate pivot points, and trade-offs in water-limited ecosystems

Plant species in dryland ecosystems are limited by water availability and may be vulnerable to increases in aridity. Methods are needed to monitor and assess the rate of change in plant abundance and composition in relation to climate, understand the potential for degradation in dryland ecosystems, and forecast future changes in plant species assemblages. I employ nearly a century of vegetation monitoring data from three North American deserts to demonstrate an approach to determine plant species responses to climate and critical points over a range of climatic conditions at which plant species shift from increases to decreases in abundance (climate pivot points). I assess these metrics from a site to regional scale and highlight how these indicators of plant performance can be modified by the physical and biotic environment. For example, shrubs were more responsive to drought and high temperatures on shallow soils with limited capacity to store water and fine-textured soils with slow percolation rates, whereas perennial grasses were more responsive to precipitation in sparse shrublands than in relatively dense grasslands and shrublands, where competition for water is likely more intense. The responses and associated climate pivot points of plant species aligned with their lifespan and structural characteristics, and the relationship between responses and climate pivot points provides evidence of the trade-off between the capacity of a plant species to increase in abundance when water is available and its drought resistance.

Arizona;New Mexico;Texas;Utah↗

USGS2013

Spatiotemporal variation in range-wide Golden-cheeked Warbler habitat

Habitat availability ultimately limits the distribution and abundance of wildlife species. Consequently, it is paramount to identify where wildlife habitat is and understand how it changes over time in order to implement large scale wildlife conservation plans. Yet, no work has quantified the degree of change in range-wide breeding habitat for the golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia), despite the species being listed as endangered by the U.S. federal government. Thus, using available geographic information system (GIS) data and Landsat satellite imagery we quantified range-wide warbler breeding habitat change from 1999-2001 to 2010-2011. We detected a 29% reduction in total warbler breeding habitat and found that warbler breeding habitat was removed and became more fragmented at uneven rates across the warbler’s breeding range during this time period. This information will assist researchers and managers in prioritizing breeding habitat conservation efforts for the species and provide a foundation for more realistic carrying capacity scenarios when modeling golden-cheeked warbler populations over time. Additionally, this study highlights the need for future work centered on quantifying golden-cheeked warbler movement rates and distances in order to assess the degree of connectivity between increasingly fragmented habitat patches.

Texas↗

USGS2014

Quantifying restoration effectiveness using multi-scale habitat models: implications for sage-grouse in the Great Basin

A recurrent challenge in the conservation of wide-ranging, imperiled species is understanding which habitats to protect and whether we are capable of restoring degraded landscapes. For Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a species of conservation concern in the western United States, we approached this problem by developing multi-scale empirical models of occupancy in 211 randomly located plots within a 40 million ha portion of the species' range. We then used these models to predict sage-grouse habitat quality at 826 plots associated with 101 post-wildfire seeding projects implemented from 1990 to 2003. We also compared conditions at restoration sites to published habitat guidelines. Sage-grouse occupancy was positively related to plot- and landscape-level dwarf sagebrush (Artemisia arbuscula, A. nova, A. tripartita) and big sagebrush steppe prevalence, and negatively associated with non-native plants and human development. The predicted probability of sage-grouse occupancy at treated plots was low on average (0.09) and not substantially different from burned areas that had not been treated. Restoration sites with quality habitat tended to occur at higher elevation locations with low annual temperatures, high spring precipitation, and high plant diversity. Of 313 plots seeded after fire, none met all sagebrush guidelines for breeding habitats, but approximately 50% met understory guidelines, particularly for perennial grasses. This pattern was similar for summer habitat. Less than 2% of treated plots met winter habitat guidelines. Restoration actions did not increase the probability of burned areas meeting most guideline criteria. The probability of meeting guidelines was influenced by a latitudinal gradient, climate, and topography. Our results suggest that sage-grouse are relatively unlikely to use many burned areas within 20 years of fire, regardless of treatment. Understory habitat conditions are more likely to be adequate than overstory conditions, but in most climates, establishing forbs and reducing cheatgrass dominance is unlikely. Reestablishing sagebrush cover will require more than 20 years using past restoration methods. Given current fire frequencies and restoration capabilities, protection of landscapes containing a mix of dwarf sagebrush and big sagebrush steppe, minimal human development, and low non-native plant cover may provide the best opportunity for conservation of sage-grouse habitats.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2014

Irruptive dynamics of introduced caribou on Adak Island, Alaska: an evaluation of Riney-Caughley model predictions

Large mammalian herbivores introduced to islands without predators are predicted to undergo irruptive population and spatial dynamics, but only a few well-documented case studies support this paradigm. We used the Riney-Caughley model as a framework to test predictions of irruptive population growth and spatial expansion of caribou ( Rangifer tarandus granti ) introduced to Adak Island in the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska in 1958 and 1959. We utilized a time series of spatially explicit counts conducted on this population intermittently over a 54-year period. Population size increased from 23 released animals to approximately 2900 animals in 2012. Population dynamics were characterized by two distinct periods of irruptive growth separated by a long time period of relative stability, and the catalyst for the initial irruption was more likely related to annual variation in hunting pressure than weather conditions. An unexpected pattern resembling logistic population growth occurred between the peak of the second irruption in 2005 and the next survey conducted seven years later in 2012. Model simulations indicated that an increase in reported harvest alone could not explain the deceleration in population growth, yet high levels of unreported harvest combined with increasing density-dependent feedbacks on fecundity and survival were the most plausible explanation for the observed population trend. No studies of introduced island Rangifer have measured a time series of spatial use to the extent described in this study. Spatial use patterns during the post-calving season strongly supported Riney-Caughley model predictions, whereby high-density core areas expanded outwardly as population size increased. During the calving season, caribou displayed marked site fidelity across the full range of population densities despite availability of other suitable habitats for calving. Finally, dispersal and reproduction on neighboring Kagalaska Island represented a new dispersal front for irruptive dynamics and a new challenge for resource managers. The future demography of caribou on both islands is far from certain, yet sustained and significant hunting pressure should be a vital management tool.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Nutrient additions to mitigate for loss of Pacific salmon: consequences for stream biofilm and nutrient dynamics

Mitigation activities designed to supplement nutrient and organic matter inputs to streams experiencing decline or loss of Pacific salmon typically presuppose that an important pathway by which salmon nutrients are moved to fish (anadromous and/or resident) is via nutrient incorporation by biofilms and subsequent bottom-up stimulation of biofilm production, which is nutrient-limited in many ecosystems where salmon returns have declined. Our objective was to quantify the magnitude of nutrient incorporation and biofilm dynamics that underpin this indirect pathway in response to experimental additions of salmon carcasses and pelletized fish meal (a.k.a., salmon carcass analogs) to 500-m reaches of central Idaho streams over three years. Biofilm standing crops increased 2–8-fold and incorporated marine-derived nutrients (measured using 15 N and 13 C) in the month following treatment, but these responses did not persist year-to-year. Biofilms were nitrogen (N) limited before treatments, and remained N limited in analog, but not carcass-treated reaches. Despite these biofilm responses, in the month following treatment total N load was equal to 33–47% of the N added to the treated reaches, and N spiraling measurements suggested that as much as 20%, but more likely 2–3% of added N was taken up by microbes. Design of biologically and cost-effective strategies for nutrient addition will require understanding the rates at which stream microbes take up nutrients and the downstream distance traveled by exported nutrients.

Idaho↗

USGS2014

Sea otters are recolonizing southern California in fits and starts

After near extinction as a result of the fur trade in the 1700s and 1800s, the southern sea otter slowly reoccupied the core of its range in central California. Range expansion beyond central California is seen as key to full recovery of otters, but the rate of expansion has been sporadic, raising concerns about habitat quality in southern California. To describe the range expansion of sea otters from central into southern California, we used skiff surveys, aerial surveys, and archival time-depth recorders from 2004 to 2013. These observations show that range expansion began when male otters swam southeast of Point Conception (Cojo Anchorage), perhaps to seek refuge from bad weather and to feed on unexploited resources. After several years of seasonal use by male groups, females began to use the area, leading to reproduction and a secondary increase in abundance. In contrast, a second male group that moved farther down the coast to Coal Oil Point stalled and retreated. Such range expansion and contraction can be explained by the social nature of sea otters, which acts to slow dispersal away from groups. Otter densities at Cojo Anchorage are now approaching equilibrium levels reported for central California. As in central California, otters rested in and near kelp forest habitat, but used deeper water for foraging. Together, these observations suggest habitat in the Santa Barbara Channel can still support sea otters, but range expansion of otters into southern California will be episodic due to social dynamics.

California↗

USGS2014

Host heterogeneity influences the impact of a non-native disease invasion on populations of a foundation tree species

Invasive pathogens are becoming increasingly important in forested ecosystems, yet they are often difficult to study because of their rapid transmission. The rate and extent of pathogen spread are thought to be partially controlled by variation in host characteristics, such as when host size and location influence susceptibility. Few host-pathogen systems, however, have been used to test this prediction. We used Port Orford cedar ( Chamaecyparis lawsoniana ), a foundation tree species in riparian areas of California and Oregon (USA), and the invasive oomycete Phytophthora lateralis to assess pathogen impacts and the role of host characteristics on invasion. Across three streams that had been infected for 13–18 years by P. lateralis , we mapped 2241 trees and determined whether they had been infected using dendrochronology. The infection probability of trees was governed by host size (diameter at breast height [DBH]) and geomorphic position (e.g., active channel, stream bank, floodplain, etc.) similarly across streams. For instance, only 23% of trees <20 cm DBH were infected, while 69% of trees ≥20 cm DBH were infected. Presumably, because spores of P. lateralis are transported downstream in water, they are more likely to encounter well-developed root systems of larger trees. Also because of this water-transport of spores, differences in infection probability were found across the geomorphic positions: 59% of cedar in the active channel and the stream bank (combined) were infected, while 23% of trees found on higher geomorphic types were infected. Overall, 32% of cedar had been infected across the three streams. However, 63% of the total cedar basal area had been killed, because the greatest number of trees, and the largest trees, were found in the most susceptible positions. In the active channel and stream bank, 91% of the basal area was infected, while 46% was infected across higher geomorphic positions. The invasion of Port Orford cedar populations by P. lateralis causes profound impacts to population structure and the invasion outcome will be governed by the heterogeneity found in host size and location. Models of disease invasion will require an understanding of how heterogeneity influences spread dynamics to adequately predict the outcome for host populations.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2015

Likelihood analysis of spatial capture-recapture models for stratified or class structured populations

We develop a likelihood analysis framework for fitting spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models to data collected on class structured or stratified populations. Our interest is motivated by the necessity of accommodating the problem of missing observations of individual class membership. This is particularly problematic in SCR data arising from DNA analysis of scat, hair or other material, which frequently yields individual identity but fails to identify the sex. Moreover, this can represent a large fraction of the data and, given the typically small sample sizes of many capture-recapture studies based on DNA information, utilization of the data with missing sex information is necessary. We develop the class structured likelihood for the case of missing covariate values, and then we address the scaling of the likelihood so that models with and without class structured parameters can be formally compared regardless of missing values. We apply our class structured model to black bear data collected in New York in which sex could be determined for only 62 of 169 uniquely identified individuals. The models containing sex-specificity of both the intercept of the SCR encounter probability model and the distance coefficient, and including a behavioral response are strongly favored by log-likelihood. Estimated population sex ratio is strongly influenced by sex structure in model parameters illustrating the importance of rigorous modeling of sex differences in capture-recapture models.

Ecosphere↗