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Results for “Ecological Modelling”

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At least 433 records · Page 24Linked to original sources
USGS2010

Modeling the impacts of hunting on the population dynamics of red howler monkeys ( Alouatta seniculus )

Overexploitation of wildlife populations occurs across the humid tropics and is a significant threat to the long-term survival of large-bodied primates. To investigate the impacts of hunting on primates and ways to mitigate them, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model for a landscape that included hunted and un-hunted areas. We used the large-bodied neotropical red howler monkey ( Alouatta seniculus ) as our case study species because its life history characteristics make it vulnerable to hunting. We modeled the influence of different rates of harvest and proportions of landscape dedicated to un-hunted reserves on population persistence, population size, social dynamics, and hunting yields of red howler monkeys. In most scenarios, the un-hunted populations maintained a constant density regardless of hunting pressure elsewhere, and allowed the overall population to persist. Therefore, the overall population was quite resilient to extinction; only in scenarios without any un-hunted areas did the population go extinct. However, the total and hunted populations did experience large declines over 100 years under moderate and high hunting pressure. In addition, when reserve area decreased, population losses and losses per unit area increased disproportionately. Furthermore, hunting disrupted the social structure of troops. The number of male turnovers and infanticides increased in hunted populations, while birth rates decreased and exacerbated population losses due to hunting. Finally, our results indicated that when more than 55% of the landscape was harvested at high (30%) rates, hunting yields, as measured by kilograms of biomass, were less than those obtained from moderate harvest rates. Additionally, hunting yields, expressed as the number of individuals hunted/year/km 2 , increased in proximity to un-hunted areas, and suggested that dispersal from un-hunted areas may have contributed to hunting sustainability. These results indicate that un-hunted areas serve to enhance hunting yields, population size, and population persistence in hunted landscapes. Therefore, spatial regulation of hunting via a reserve system may be an effective management strategy for sustainable hunting, and we recommend it because it may also be more feasible to implement than harvest quotas or restrictions on season length.

Guárico↗
USGS1997

Prey patchiness and larval fish growth and survival: inferences from an individual-based model

We used an individual-based simulation model to evaluate how prey patchiness and fish swimming behavior affect larval fish survival and mortality source (predation or starvation). Simulations revealed that cohort survival increased linearly with greater average patch residence times and that patch residence times for individual fish with different fates (survived, starved, eaten) diverged substantially during the first few days of feeding. Further, by examining the interaction of patch spatial distribution (uniform random versus clumped) with three possible swimming behaviors, we found that swimming behavior, via its effect on prey encounter and feeding rates, affected both cohort survival rates and whether fish died from predation or starvation, but that the spatial distribution of patches (fine-scale (100s m)) only influenced whether fish died from predation or starvation. Within a particular patch spatial arrangement, however, patch intensity (division of food between patches and non-patches) had a major effect on survival. Except at high food levels, fish did not survive when there were no patches, suggesting that average, well-mixed prey densities will not support sufficiently rapid growth for survival. As patch intensity increased, survival increased to a maximum and then declined, with peak survival occurring at higher patch intensity as average food concentration declined. Finally, the degree of patchiness also determined the intensity of selection on growth rates. In patchier environments, there was stronger selection for fast growth rates leading to eight-fold differences in average cohort growth rates after only three days of growth. In general, survival was not directly related to fast cohort growth the best survival occurred with high average prey densities and weak patchiness. Prey patchiness, by influencing the average as well as the variance in individual growth rates, can have a substantial impact on survival rates of larval fish cohorts.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2020

Estimating the drivers of species distributions with opportunistic data using mediation analysis

Ecological occupancy modeling has historically relied on high-quality, low-quantity designed-survey data for estimation and prediction. In recent years, there has been a large increase in the amount of high-quantity, unknown-quality opportunistic data. This has motivated research on how best to combine these two data sources in order to optimize inference. Existing methods can be infeasible for large datasets or require opportunistic data to be located where designed-survey data exist. These methods map species occupancies, motivating a need to properly evaluate covariate effects (e.g., land cover proportion) on their distributions. We describe a spatial estimation method for supplementarily including additional opportunistic data using mediation analysis concepts. The opportunistic data mediate the effect of the covariate on the designed-survey data response, decomposing it into a direct and indirect effect. A component of the indirect effect can then be quickly estimated via regressing the mediator on the covariate, while the other components are estimated through a spatial occupancy model. The regression step allows for use of large quantities of opportunistic data that can be collected in locations with no designed-survey data available. Simulation results suggest that the mediated method produces an improvement in relative MSE when the data are of reasonable quality. However, when the simulated opportunistic data are poorly correlated with the true spatial process, the standard, unmediated method is still preferable. A spatiotemporal extension of the method is also developed for analyzing the effect of deciduous forest land cover on red-eyed vireo distribution in the southeastern United States and find that including the opportunistic data do not lead to a substantial improvement. Opportunistic data quality remains an important consideration when employing this method, as with other data integration methods.

eastern United States↗
USGS2016

Predicting thermally stressful events in rivers with a strategy to evaluate management alternatives

Water temperature is an important factor in river ecology. Numerous models have been developed to predict river temperature. However, many were not designed to predict thermally stressful periods. Because such events are rare, traditionally applied analyses are inappropriate. Here, we developed two logistic regression models to predict thermally stressful events in the Delaware River at the US Geological Survey gage near Lordville, New York. One model predicted the probability of an event >20.0 °C, and a second predicted an event >22.2 °C. Both models were strong (independent test data sensitivity 0.94 and 1.00, specificity 0.96 and 0.96) predicting 63 of 67 events in the >20.0 °C model and all 15 events in the >22.2 °C model. Both showed negative relationships with released volume from the upstream Cannonsville Reservoir and positive relationships with difference between air temperature and previous day's water temperature at Lordville. We further predicted how increasing release volumes from Cannonsville Reservoir affected the probabilities of correctly predicted events. For the >20.0 °C model, an increase of 0.5 to a proportionally adjusted release (that accounts for other sources) resulted in 35.9% of events in the training data falling below cutoffs; increasing this adjustment by 1.0 resulted in 81.7% falling below cutoffs. For the >22.2 °C these adjustments resulted in 71.1% and 100.0% of events falling below cutoffs. Results from these analyses can help managers make informed decisions on alternative release scenarios.

New York↗
USGS2022

The hydroclimate niche: A tool for predicting and managing riparian plant community responses to streamflow seasonality

Habitat suitability is a consequence of interacting environmental factors. In riparian ecosystems, suitable plant habitat is influenced by interactions between stream hydrology and climate, hereafter referred to as “hydroclimate”. We tested the hypothesis that hydroclimate variables would improve the fit of ecological niche models for a suite of riparian species using occurrence data from the western United States. We focus on the climate conditions (temperature, precipitation and vapor pressure deficit) during the months of lowest and highest streamflow as integrative hydroclimate metrics of resource and stress levels. We found that the inclusion of hydroclimate variables improved model fit for all species in the western USA dataset. We then tested the utility of the improved habitat suitability models by projecting them onto a regulated segment of the Colorado River to assess potential impacts of streamflow seasonality on vegetation metrics of management concern. Species frequency derived from independent survey data in the Colorado River segment was significantly higher for species with predicted suitable habitat than for species without predicted suitable habitat. Under different simulated hydrographs for the Colorado River, overall species richness was predicted to be greatest with peak streamflows during summer, and native-to-non-native species ratios were predicted to be greatest with lowest streamflows in winter. Summer high flows were particularly associated with higher predicted habitat suitability for species that have increased in cover over recent decades (e.g., Pluchea sericea, Baccharis species). We conclude that hydroclimate covariates can be useful tools for predicting how riparian vegetation communities respond to changes in the seasonal timing of low and high streamflows.

River Research and Applications↗
USGS2014

Abdominally implanted satellite transmitters affect reproduction and survival rather than migration of large shorebirds

Satellite telemetry has become a common technique to investigate avian life-histories, but whether such tagging will affect fitness is a critical unknown. In this study, we evaluate multi-year effects of implanted transmitters on migratory timing and reproductive performance in shorebirds. Shorebirds increasingly are recognized as good models in ecology and evolution. That many of them are of conservation concern adds to the research responsibilities. In May 2009, we captured 56 female Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa limosa during late incubation in The Netherlands. Of these, 15 birds were equipped with 26-g satellite transmitters with a percutaneous antenna (7.8 % ± 0.2 SD of body mass), surgically implanted in the coelom. We compared immediate nest survival, timing of migration, subsequent nest site fidelity and reproductive behaviour including egg laying with those of the remaining birds, a comparison group of 41 females. We found no effects on immediate nest survival. Fledging success and subsequent southward and northward migration patterns of the implanted birds conformed to the expectations, and arrival time on the breeding grounds in 2010–2012 did not differ from the comparison group. Compared with the comparison group, in the year after implantation, implanted birds were equally faithful to the nest site and showed equal territorial behaviour, but a paucity of behaviours indicating nests or clutches. In the 3 years after implantation, the yearly apparent survival of implanted birds was 16 % points lower. Despite intense searching, we found only three eggs of two implanted birds; all were deformed. A similarly deformed egg was reported in a similarly implanted Whimbrel Numenius phaeopus returning to breed in central Alaska. The presence in the body cavity of an object slightly smaller than a normal egg may thus lead to egg malformation and, likely, reduced egg viability. That the use of implanted satellite transmitters in these large shorebirds reduced nesting propensity and might also lead to fertility losses argues against the use of implanted transmitters for studies on breeding biology, and for a careful evaluation of the methodology in studies of migration.

Friesl↗
USGS2009

Top 10 principles for designing healthy coastal ecosystems like the Salish Sea

Like other coastal zones around the world, the inland sea ecosystem of Washington (USA) and British Columbia (Canada), an area known as the Salish Sea, is changing under pressure from a growing human population, conversion of native forest and shoreline habitat to urban development, toxic contamination of sediments and species, and overharvest of resources. While billions of dollars have been spent trying to restore other coastal ecosystems around the world, there still is no successful model for restoring estuarine or marine ecosystems like the Salish Sea. Despite the lack of a guiding model, major ecological principles do exist that should be applied as people work to design the Salish Sea and other large marine ecosystems for the future. We suggest that the following 10 ecological principles serve as a foundation for educating the public and for designing a healthy Salish Sea and other coastal ecosystems for future generations: (1) Think ecosystem: political boundaries are arbitrary; (2) Account for ecosystem connectivity; (3) Understand the food web; (4) Avoid fragmentation; (5) Respect ecosystem integrity; (6) Support nature's resilience; (7) Value nature: it's money in your pocket; (8) Watch wildlife health; (9) Plan for extremes; and (10) Share the knowledge.

British Columbia, Washington↗
USGS1980

Demography of the Everglade kite: Implications for population management

Simple deterministic and stochastic population modelsi are used to examine the demographic patterns of the Everglade Kite population. These efforts are directed at making inferences about the evolution of the kite life-history pattern, and at providing guidelines for the management of the kite population. The Everglade Kite has apparently evolved high adult survival rates, in partial response to a variable reproductive output. Proper management of this population should include the protection of adults from catastrophic mortality sources, and the provision of adequate water-levels to ensure reproductive success.

Florida↗
USGS1982

Optimal stochastic control in natural resource management: Framework and examples

A framework is presented for the application of optimal control methods to natural resource problems. An expression of the optimal control problem appropriate for renewable natural resources is given and its application to Markovian systems is presented in some detail. Three general approaches are outlined for determining optimal control of infinite time horizon systems and three examples from the natural resource literature are used for illustration.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2013

Cold-seep habitat mapping: high-resolution spatial characterization of the Blake Ridge Diapir seep field

Relationships among seep community biomass, diversity, and physiographic controls such as underlying geology are not well understood. Previous efforts to constrain these relationships at the Blake Ridge Diapir were limited to observations from piloted deep-submergence vehicles. In August 2012, the autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) Sentry collected geophysical and photographic data over a 0.131 km2 area at the Blake Ridge Diapir seeps. A nested survey approach was used that began with a regional or reconnaissance-style survey using sub-bottom mapping systems to locate and identify seeps and underlying conduits. This survey was followed by AUV-mounted sidescan sonar and multibeam echosounder systems mapping on a mesoscale to characterize the seabed physiography. At the most detailed survey level, digital photographic imaging was used to resolve sub-meter characteristics of the biology. Four pockmarks (25–70 m diameter) were documented, each supporting chemosynthetic communities. Concentric zonation of mussels and clams suggests the influence of chemical gradients on megafaunal distribution. Data collection and analytical techniques used here yield high-resolution habitat maps that can serve as baselines to constrain temporal evolution of seafloor seeps, and to inform ecological niche modeling and resource management.

Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Ocea↗
USGS2006

Population momentum across vertebrate life histories

Population abundance is critically important in conservation, management, and demographic theory. Thus, to better understand how perturbations to the life history affect long-term population size, we examined population momentum for four vertebrate classes with different life history strategies. In a series of demographic experiments we show that population momentum generally has a larger effect on long-term population size for organisms with long generation times than for organisms with short generation times. However, patterns between population momentum and generation time varied across taxonomic groups and according to the life history parameter that was changed. Our findings indicate that momentum may be an especially important aspect of population dynamics for long-lived vertebrates, and deserves greater attention in life history studies. Further, we discuss the importance of population momentum in natural resource management, pest control, and conservation arenas. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2008

Estimated home ranges can misrepresent habitat relationships on patchy landscapes

Home ranges of animals are generally structured by the selective use of resource-bearing patches that comprise habitat. Based on this concept, home ranges of animals estimated from location data are commonly used to infer habitat relationships. Because home ranges estimated from animal locations are largely continuous in space, the resource-bearing patches selected by an animal from a fragmented distribution of patches would be difficult to discern; unselected patches included in the home range estimate would bias an understanding of important habitat relationships. To evaluate potential for this bias, we generated simulated home ranges based on optimal selection of resource-bearing patches across a series of simulated resource distributions that varied in the spatial continuity of resources. For simulated home ranges where selected patches were spatially disjunct, we included interstitial, unselected cells most likely to be traveled by an animal moving among selected patches. We compared characteristics of the simulated home ranges with and without interstitial patches to evaluate how insights derived from field estimates can differ from actual characteristics of home ranges, depending on patchiness of landscapes. Our results showed that contiguous home range estimates could lead to misleading insights on the quality, size, resource content, and efficiency of home ranges, proportional to the spatial discontinuity of resource-bearing patches. We conclude the potential bias of including unselected, largely irrelevant patches in the field estimates of home ranges of animals can be high, particularly for home range estimators that assume uniform use of space within home range boundaries. Thus, inferences about the habitat relationships that ultimately define an animal's home range can be misleading where animals occupy landscapes with patchily distributed resources.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2008

Monitoring waterbird abundance in wetlands: The importance of controlling results for variation in water depth

Wetland use by waterbirds is highly dependent on water depth, and depth requirements generally vary among species. Furthermore, water depth within wetlands often varies greatly over time due to unpredictable hydrological events, making comparisons of waterbird abundance among wetlands difficult as effects of habitat variables and water depth are confounded. Species-specific relationships between bird abundance and water depth necessarily are non-linear; thus, we developed a methodology to correct waterbird abundance for variation in water depth, based on the non-parametric regression of these two variables. Accordingly, we used the difference between observed and predicted abundances from non-parametric regression (analogous to parametric residuals) as an estimate of bird abundance at equivalent water depths. We scaled this difference to levels of observed and predicted abundances using the formula: ((observed - predicted abundance)/(observed + predicted abundance)) ?? 100. This estimate also corresponds to the observed:predicted abundance ratio, which allows easy interpretation of results. We illustrated this methodology using two hypothetical species that differed in water depth and wetland preferences. Comparisons of wetlands, using both observed and relative corrected abundances, indicated that relative corrected abundance adequately separates the effect of water depth from the effect of wetlands. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2011

Resolving structural uncertainty in natural resources management using POMDP approaches

In recent years there has been a growing focus on the uncertainties of natural resources management, and the importance of accounting for uncertainty in assessing management effectiveness. This paper focuses on uncertainty in resource management in terms of discrete-state Markov decision processes (MDP) under structural uncertainty and partial observability. It describes the treatment of structural uncertainty with approaches developed for partially observable resource systems. In particular, I show how value iteration for partially observable MDPs (POMDP) can be extended to structurally uncertain MDPs. A key difference between these process classes is that structurally uncertain MDPs require the tracking of system state as well as a probability structure for the structure uncertainty, whereas with POMDPs require only a probability structure for the observation uncertainty. The added complexity of the optimization problem under structural uncertainty is compensated by reduced dimensionality in the search for optimal strategy. A solution algorithm for structurally uncertain processes is outlined for a simple example in conservation biology. By building on the conceptual framework developed for POMDPs, natural resource analysts and decision makers who confront structural uncertainties in natural resources can take advantage of the rapid growth in POMDP methods and approaches, and thereby produce better conservation strategies over a larger class of resource problems.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2011

Adaptive resource management and the value of information

The value of information is a general and broadly applicable concept that has been used for several decades to aid in making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Yet there are relatively few examples of its use in ecology and natural resources management, and almost none that are framed in terms of the future impacts of management decisions. In this paper we discuss the value of information in a context of adaptive management, in which actions are taken sequentially over a timeframe and both future resource conditions and residual uncertainties about resource responses are taken into account. Our objective is to derive the value of reducing or eliminating uncertainty in adaptive decision making. We describe several measures of the value of information, with each based on management objectives that are appropriate for adaptive management. We highlight some mathematical properties of these measures, discuss their geometries, and illustrate them with an example in natural resources management. Accounting for the value of information can help to inform decisions about whether and how much to monitor resource conditions through time.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2016

Integrating biology, field logistics, and simulations to optimize parameter estimation for imperiled species

Conservation of imperiled species often requires knowledge of vital rates and population dynamics. However, these can be difficult to estimate for rare species and small populations. This problem is further exacerbated when individuals are not available for detection during some surveys due to limited access, delaying surveys and creating mismatches between the breeding behavior and survey timing. Here we use simulations to explore the impacts of this issue using four hypothetical boreal toad ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ) populations, representing combinations of logistical access (accessible, inaccessible) and breeding behavior (synchronous, asynchronous). We examine the bias and precision of survival and breeding probability estimates generated by survey designs that differ in effort and timing for these populations. Our findings indicate that the logistical access of a site and mismatch between the breeding behavior and survey design can greatly limit the ability to yield accurate and precise estimates of survival and breeding probabilities. Simulations similar to what we have performed can help researchers determine an optimal survey design(s) for their system before initiating sampling efforts.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2017

Using optimal transport theory to estimate transition probabilities in metapopulation dynamics

This work considers the estimation of transition probabilities associated with populations moving among multiple spatial locations based on numbers of individuals at each location at two points in time. The problem is generally underdetermined as there exists an extremely large number of ways in which individuals can move from one set of locations to another. A unique solution therefore requires a constraint. The theory of optimal transport provides such a constraint in the form of a cost function, to be minimized in expectation over the space of possible transition matrices. We demonstrate the optimal transport approach on marked bird data and compare to the probabilities obtained via maximum likelihood estimation based on marked individuals. It is shown that by choosing the squared Euclidean distance as the cost, the estimated transition probabilities compare favorably to those obtained via maximum likelihood with marked individuals. Other implications of this cost are discussed, including the ability to accurately interpolate the population's spatial distribution at unobserved points in time and the more general relationship between the cost and minimum transport energy.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2020

Spatial conservation planning under uncertainty using modern portfolio theory and nash bargaining solution

In recent years, researchers from interdisciplinary teams involving ecologists, economists and operations re- searchers collaborated to provide decision support tools to address the challenges of preserving biodiversity by optimizing the design of reserves. The goal of this paper is to further advance this area of research and provide new solutions to solve complex Spatial Conservation Planning (SCP) problems under uncertainty that consider risk preferences of decision makers. Our approach employs modern portfolio theory to address uncertainties in SCP problems, and involves two conflicting objectives: maximizing return and minimizing risk. We apply concepts from game theory such as the Nash bargaining solution to directly compute a desirable Pareto-optimal solution for the proposed bi-objective optimization formulation in natural resource management problems. We demonstrate with numerical examples that by directly computing a Nash bar- gaining solution, a Binary Quadratically Constrained Quadratic Program (BQCQP) can be solved. We show that our approach (implementable with commercial solvers such as CPLEX) can effectively solve the proposed BQCQP for much larger problems than previous approaches published in the ecological literature. Optimal solutions for problems with less than 400 parcels can be computed within a minute. Near optimal solutions (within at most 0.2% gap from an optimal solution) for high-dimensional problems involving up to 800 parcels can be computed within 8 hours on a standard computer. We have presented a new approach to solve SCP optimization problems while considering uncertainty and risk tolerance of decision makers. Our new approach expands considerably the applicability of such SCP optimization methods to address real conservation problems.

Ecological Modelling↗