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At least 433 records · Page 24Linked to original sources

USGS2012

Potential climate-induced runoff changes and associated uncertainty in four Pacific Northwest estuaries

As part of a larger investigation into potential effects of climate change on estuarine habitats in the Pacific Northwest, we estimated changes in freshwater inputs into four estuaries: Coquille River estuary, South Slough of Coos Bay, and Yaquina Bay in Oregon, and Willapa Bay in Washington. We used the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to model watershed hydrological processes under current and future climatic conditions. This model allowed us to explore possible shifts in coastal hydrologic regimes at a range of spatial scales. All modeled watersheds are located in rainfall-dominated coastal areas with relatively insignificant base flow inputs, and their areas vary from 74.3 to 2,747.6 square kilometers. The watersheds also vary in mean elevation, ranging from 147 meters in the Willapa to 1,179 meters in the Coquille. The latitudes of watershed centroids range from 43.037 degrees north latitude in the Coquille River estuary to 46.629 degrees north latitude in Willapa Bay. We calibrated model parameters using historical climate grid data downscaled to one-sixteenth of a degree by the Climate Impacts Group, and historical runoff from sub-watersheds or neighboring watersheds. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values for daily flows in calibration sub-watersheds ranged from 0.71 to 0.89. After calibration, we forced the PRMS models with four North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program climate models: Canadian Regional Climate Model-(National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Climate System Model version 3, Canadian Regional Climate Model-Canadian Global Climate Model version 3, Hadley Regional Model version 3-Hadley Centre Climate Model version 3, and Regional Climate Model-Canadian Global Climate Model version 3. These are global climate models (GCMs) downscaled with regional climate models that are embedded within the GCMs, and all use the A2 carbon emission scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. With these climate-forcing outputs, we derived the mean change in flow from the period encompassing the 1980s (1971-1995) to the period encompassing the 2050s (2041-2065). Specifically, we calculated percent change in mean monthly flow rate, coefficient of variation, top 5 percent of flow, and 7-day low flow. The trends with the most agreement among climate models and among watersheds were increases in autumn mean monthly flows, especially in October and November, decreases in summer monthly mean flow, and increases in the top 5 percent of flow. We also estimated variance in PRMS outputs owing to parameter uncertainty and the selection of climate model using Latin hypercube sampling. This analysis showed that PRMS low-flow simulations are more uncertain than medium or high flow simulations, and that variation among climate models was a larger source of uncertainty than the hydrological model parameters. These results improve our understanding of how climate change may affect the saltwater-freshwater balance in Pacific Northwest estuaries, with implications for their sensitive ecosystems.

Oregon;Washington↗

USGS2013

Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink-footed geese: cooperator report

This document describes progress to date on the development of a harvest‐management strategy for maintaining pink‐footed goose abundance near their target level by providing for sustainable harvests in Norway and Denmark. Many goose populations in western Europe have increased dramatically in recent decades. The Svalbard population of pink‐footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) is a good example, increasing from about 10 thousand individuals in the early 1960’s to roughly 80 thousand today. Although these geese are a highly valued resource, the growing numbers of geese are causing agricultural conflicts in wintering and staging areas. The African‐Eurasian Waterbird Agreement (AEWA; http://www.unep‐aewa.org/) calls for means to manage populations which cause conflicts with certain human economic activities. We compiled relevant demographic and weather data and specified an annual‐cycle model for pink-footed geese that reconciles the different dates of monitoring activities and the timing of harvest-management decisions. We then developed dynamic models for survival and reproductive processes and parameterized them using available data. By combining varying hypotheses about survival and reproduction, we developed a suite of nine models that represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent, and the extent to which spring temperatures are important. These nine models varied significantly in their predictions of the harvest required to stabilize current population size, ranging from a low of about 500 to a high of about 17 thousand. For comparison, the harvest in Norway and Denmark was about 11 thousand in 2011 and the population increased from 70 to 80 thousand. We relied on the passive form of adaptive management in formulating a harvest strategy. In passive adaptive management, alternative population models and their associated weights of evidence are explicitly considered in the development of an optimal harvest strategy. Unlike active adaptive management, however, there is no explicit consideration of how harvest management actions could reduce uncertainty as to the most appropriate model of population dynamics. In optimizing a harvest strategy, we assumed equal probabilities for all nine models and assumed relatively course control over harvest. We used a management objective that seeks to maximize sustainable harvest, but avoids harvest decisions that are expected to result in a subsequent population size different than the population goal of 60 thousand. Optimal harvest strategies were calculated using stochastic dynamic programming, and Monte Carlo simulations were used to investigate expected strategy performance. The optimal passive adaptive‐management strategy is expected to maintain mean population size near 60 thousand, regardless of the most appropriate model. However, mean harvest rates and harvests varied substantially depending on the most appropriate model of population dynamics. With an average number of days above freezing in May in Svalbard, optimal harvest rates (i.e., the proportion of the population to be harvested in autumn) increase rapidly once there are more than about 50 thousand birds in the population. Generally, optimal harvests were on the order of 10 – 20 thousand for population sizes > 60 thousand, and 0 – 5 thousand for population sizes < 60 thousand. For the observations of young of 15.4 thousand and adults of 54.6 thousand in autumn 2010, and 10 days above freezing in May 2011 (a relatively warm spring compared to the average of about 7), the optimal harvest rate in autumn of 2011 would have been 0.16, or a harvest of about 14 thousand. Based on the optimal strategy, hunting‐season closures would be required as the number of adults in the autumn population falls below about 52 thousand, regardless of the number of young in the population. As the number of adults and young decrease, the number of warm days in May required to keep the hunting season open increases. We also investigated the ability of the optimal strategy to stabilize the population at around 60 thousand birds, assuming varying values of the maximum harvest rate that could be implemented. Harvest strategies that contained a maximum harvest rate of 0.16 (equivalent to a harvest of about 17 thousand) were effective at stabilizing the population at 60 thousand within 4‐5 years, regardless of climate scenario. Harvest strategies with a maximum harvest rate of 0.12 (harvest ≈ 13 thousand) were also able to stabilize the population near 60 thousand, although it took more time. Harvest strategies with a maximum harvest rate of 0.08 (harvest ≈ 8 thousand) were unsuccessful at stabilizing the population at 60 thousand. Continued monitoring of the pink‐footed goose population on an annual basis is critical to an informed harvest management strategy. At a minimum, the ground census in November should be continued to determine population size and proportion of young. Continued estimates of harvest from Norway and Denmark are also necessary to help judge the credibility of the alternative population models. However, an adaptive management process that relies on periodic updating of model weights will depend on acquiring either estimates of the realized harvest rate of adults or the age composition of the harvest. We also recommend that a census conducted during spring migration be operationalized, and that estimates of survival based on mark‐recapture data be updated. Finally, the International Working Group has expressed a desire to adopt a three‐year cycle of decision making related to the regulation of pink‐footed goose harvests. The idea is that once a target harvest level is adopted, it would remain in place for three years, after which time population status would be assessed and a potentially new management action chosen. We have developed a preliminary framework to implement a three‐year cycle using stochastic dynamic programming, and we hope to have it fully operational later this year . We note, however, that application of this 3‐year framework will still require annual resource monitoring and assessments to facilitate learning, and to allow managers the opportunity to respond to any unforeseen change in resource conditions.

Report↗

USGS2014

Regional regression equations for the estimation of selected monthly low-flow duration and frequency statistics at ungaged sites on streams in New Jersey

Regional regression equations were developed for estimating monthly flow-duration and monthly low-flow frequency statistics for ungaged streams in Coastal Plain and non-coastal regions of New Jersey for baseline and current land- and water-use conditions. The equations were developed to estimate 87 different streamflow statistics, which include the monthly 99-, 90-, 85-, 75-, 50-, and 25-percentile flow-durations of the minimum 1-day daily flow; the August–September 99-, 90-, and 75-percentile minimum 1-day daily flow; and the monthly 7-day, 10-year (M7D10Y) low-flow frequency. These 87 streamflow statistics were computed for 41 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) with 20 or more years of record and 167 low-flow partial-record stations in New Jersey with 10 or more streamflow measurements. The regression analyses used to develop equations to estimate selected streamflow statistics were performed by testing the relation between flow-duration statistics and low-flow frequency statistics for 32 basin characteristics (physical characteristics, land use, surficial geology, and climate) at the 41 streamgages and 167 low-flow partial-record stations. The regression analyses determined drainage area, soil permeability, average April precipitation, average June precipitation, and percent storage (water bodies and wetlands) were the significant explanatory variables for estimating the selected flow-duration and low-flow frequency statistics. Streamflow estimates were computed for two land- and water-use conditions in New Jersey—land- and water-use during the baseline period of record (defined as the years a streamgage had little to no change in development and water use) and current land- and water-use conditions (1989–2008)—for each selected station using data collected through water year 2008. The baseline period of record is representative of a period when the basin was unaffected by change in development. The current period is representative of the increased development of the last 20 years (1989–2008). The two different land- and water-use conditions were used as surrogates for development to determine whether there have been changes in low-flow statistics as a result of changes in development over time. The State was divided into two low-flow regression regions, the Coastal Plain and the non-coastal region, in order to improve the accuracy of the regression equations. The left-censored parametric survival regression method was used for the analyses to account for streamgages and partial-record stations that had zero flow values for some of the statistics. The average standard error of estimate for the 348 regression equations ranged from 16 to 340 percent. These regression equations and basin characteristics are presented in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) StreamStats Web-based geographic information system application. This tool allows users to click on an ungaged site on a stream in New Jersey and get the estimated flow-duration and low-flow frequency statistics. Additionally, the user can click on a streamgage or partial-record station and get the “at-site” streamflow statistics. The low-flow characteristics of a stream ultimately affect the use of the stream by humans. Specific information on the low-flow characteristics of streams is essential to water managers who deal with problems related to municipal and industrial water supply, fish and wildlife conservation, and dilution of wastewater.

New Jersey↗

USGS2021

U.S. Geological Survey landscape science strategy 2020–2030

Across our Nation, multiple Federal, State, Tribal, and local governments are working with stakeholders and landowners to restore, conserve, and manage lands and resources to benefit fish, wildlife, and people. One of the largest Federal efforts is led by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), with multiple DOI agencies working to conserve and manage public lands, resources, and cultural heritage for the benefit and enjoyment of current and future generations. As a science provider within the DOI, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has an important role in developing actionable science products that can inform decision making on public lands and across all of our Nation’s landscapes. Our landscapes and resources are undergoing continual change from a complex and interacting suite of stressors that include traditional and nontraditional land uses, a changing climate, a dynamic economy, and a culturally diverse and ever-changing society. Landscape science seeks to understand how the physical, biological, and social components of ecosystems and landscapes interact with each other and are affected by these stressors across local to global scales. The USGS has developed this landscape science strategy to focus and strengthen the agency’s efforts to inform critical conservation, restoration, and management decisions for American landscapes. The strategy directly supports the overarching 21st-century science strategy of the USGS and expands our perspective and focus on partnerships, including with internal, external, traditional, and nontraditional partners. The vision for USGS landscape science is to integrate multiple disciplines and approaches to create and deliver relevant, timely, and scientifically sound products that enable our partners to make informed decisions about how to manage complex interacting natural and human systems across changing American landscapes. This strategy seeks to leverage the expertise, data, analytical capacity, and tools of the agency and to strengthen integration of science efforts across programs and scales. A cornerstone of the strategy is working closely with landowners and resource managers to identify the science that is needed to inform management actions, and then working collaboratively with those same partners to coproduce science and data products that are timely, practical, and useful for their decision making. Many individual efforts within the USGS already embrace landscape science ideas and practices. With the development of this strategy, we are seeking to build on these efforts and to focus agency attention and expertise on expanding, connecting, and institutionalizing core practices and approaches for landscape science that produces actionable science products and tools that decision makers can use to help conserve and manage American landscapes.

Circular↗

USGS2017

Skagit River coho salmon life history model—Users’ guide

Natural resource management is conducted in the context of multiple anthropogenic stressors and is further challenged owing to changing climate. Experiments to determine the effects of climate change on complex ecological systems are nearly impossible. However, using a simulation model to synthesize current understanding of key ecological processes through the life cycle of a fish population can provide a platform for exploring potential effects of and management responses to changing conditions. Potential climate-change scenarios can be imposed, responses can be observed, and the effectiveness of potential actions can be evaluated. This approach is limited owing to future conditions likely deviating in range and timing from conditions used to create the model so that the model is expected to become obsolete. In the meantime, however, the modeling process explicitly states assumptions, clarifies information gaps, and provides a means to better understand which relationships are robust and which are vulnerable to changing climate by observing whether and why model output diverges from actual observations through time. The purpose of the model described herein is to provide such a decision-support tool regarding coho ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) salmon for the Sauk-Suiattle Indian Tribe of Washington State. The Skagit coho salmon model is implemented in a system dynamics format and has three primary stocks—(1) predicted smolts, (2) realized smolts, and (3) escapement. “Predicted smolts” are the number of smolts expected based on the number of spawners in any year and the Ricker production curve. Pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha ) return to the Skagit River in odd years, and when they overlap with juvenile rearing coho salmon, coho smolt production is substantially higher than in non-pink years. Therefore, the model uses alternative Ricker equations to predict smolts depending on whether their juvenile year was a pink or non-pink year. The stock “realized smolts” is calculated based on the expected effect of streamflow conditions to alter the productivity predicted by the Ricker curve. Adverse conditions include scouring flow events that occur when redds are present; high-flow events during winter on juveniles, which can cause fish displacement and adverse water turbidity; and extremely low flows in summer. The stock “escapement” represents the fish remaining after accounting for ocean mortality and harvest. Ocean mortality has been linked with indices of ocean conditions, which are related to ocean biological productivity. Ocean survival also may have a density-dependent component such that lower survival is associated with higher numbers of smolts. The model allows the user to change certain model parameters and inputs, and choose among alternative predictors for certain modeled relations.

Washington↗

USGS2015

Long-term effects of wildfire on greater sage-grouse - integrating population and ecosystem concepts for management in the Great Basin

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereinafter, sage-grouse) are a sagebrush obligate species that has declined concomitantly with the loss and fragmentation of sagebrush ecosystems across most of its geographical range. The species currently is listed as a candidate for federal protection under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Increasing wildfire frequency and changing climate frequently are identified as two environmental drivers that contribute to the decline of sage-grouse populations, yet few studies have rigorously quantified their effects on sage-grouse populations across broad spatial scales and long time periods. To help inform a threat assessment within the Great Basin for listing sage-grouse in 2015 under the ESA, we conducted an extensive analysis of wildfire and climatic effects on sage-grouse population growth derived from 30 years of lek-count data collected across the hydrographic Great Basin of Western North America. Annual (1984–2013) patterns of wildfire were derived from an extensive dataset of remotely sensed 30-meter imagery and precipitation derived from locally downscaled spatially explicit data. In the sagebrush ecosystem, underlying soil conditions also contribute strongly to variation in resilience to disturbance and resistance to plant community changes (R&R). Thus, we developed predictions from models of post-wildfire recovery and chronic effects of wildfire based on three spatially explicit R&R classes derived from soil moisture and temperature regimes. We found evidence of an interaction between the effects of wildfire (chronically affected burned area within 5 kilometers of a lek) and climatic conditions (spring through fall precipitation) after accounting for a consistent density-dependent effect. Specifically, burned areas near leks nullifies population growth that normally follows years with relatively high precipitation. In models, this effect results in long-term population declines for sage-grouse despite cyclic periods of high precipitation. Based on 30-year projections of burn and recovery rates, our population model predicted steady and substantial long-term declines in population size across the Great Basin. Further, example management scenarios that may help offset adverse wildfire effects are provided by models of varying levels of fire suppression and post-wildfire restoration that focus on areas especially important to sage-grouse populations. These models illustrate how sage-grouse population persistence likely will be compromised as sagebrush ecosystems and sage-grouse habitat are degraded by wildfire, especially in a warmer and drier climate, and by invasion of annual grasses that can increase wildfire frequency and size in the Great Basin.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2005

Simulated ground-water flow for a pond-dominated aquifer system near Great Sandy Bottom Pond, Pembroke, Massachusetts

A ground-water flow simulation for a 66.4-square-mile area around Great Sandy Bottom (GSB) Pond (105 acres) near Pembroke, Massachusetts, was developed for use by local and State water managers to assess the yields for public water supply of local ponds and wells for average climatic and drought conditions and the effects of water withdrawals on nearby water levels and streamflows. Wetlands and ponds cover about 30 percent of the study area and the aquifer system is dominated by interactions between ground water and the ponds. The three largest surface-water bodies in the study area are Silver Lake (640 acres), Monponsett Pond (590 acres), and Oldham Pond (236 acres). The study area is drained by tributaries of the Taunton River to the southwest, the South and North Rivers to the northeast, and the Jones River to the southeast. In 2002, 10.8 million gallons per day of water was exported from ponds and 3.5 million gallons per day from wells was used locally for public supply. A transient ground-water-flow model with 69 monthly stress periods spanning the period from January 1998 through September 2003 was calibrated to stage at GSB Pond and nearby Silver Lake and streamflow and water levels collected from September 2002 through September 2003. The calibrated model was used to assess hydrologic responses to a variety of water-use and climatic conditions. Simulation of predevelopment (no pumping or export) average monthly (1949-2002) water-level conditions caused the GSB Pond level to increase by 6.3 feet from the results of a simulation using average 2002 pumping for all wells, withdrawals, and exports. Most of this decline can be attributed to pumping, withdrawals, and exports of water from sites away from GSB Pond. The effects of increasing the export rate from GSB Pond by 1.25 and 1.5 times the 2002 rate were a lowering of pond levels by a maximum of 1.6 and 2.8 feet, respectively. Simulated results for two different drought conditions, one mild drought similar to that of 1979-82 and a more severe drought similar to that of 1963-66, but with current (2002) pumping, were compared to results for average monthly recharge conditions (1949-2002). Simulated mild drought conditions showed a reduction of GSB Pond level of about 1.3 feet and a lower streamflow of about 1.7 percent in the nearby stream. Simulated severe drought conditions reduced the pond level at GSB Pond by almost 7 feet and lowered streamflow by about 37 percent. Varying cranberry-irrigation practices had little effect on simulated GSB Pond water levels, but may be important in other ponds. The model was most sensitive to changes in areal recharge. An increase and decrease of 22 percent in recharge produced changes in the GSB Pond water level of +1.4 feet and -2.4 feet, respectively. The accuracy of simulation results was best in the central portion of the study area in the immediate location of GSB Pond. The model was developed with the study-area boundary far enough away from the GSB Pond area that the boundary would have minimal effect on the water levels in GSB Pond, nearby ponds, and the underlying aquifer system. The model is best suited for use by local and State water managers to assess the effects of different withdrawal scenarios for wells and ponds near GSB Pond and for general delineation of areas contributing recharge to wells and ponds in the vicinity of GSB Pond. The model in its current form may not be well suited to detailed analyses of water budgets and flow patterns for parts of the study area farther from GSB Pond without further investigation, calibration, and data collection.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2024

Geomorphic change, hydrology, and hydraulics of Caulks Creek, Wildwood, Missouri

Caulks Creek is a small stream that flows through the city of Wildwood in western St. Louis County, Missouri. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Wildwood, has documented historical and recent geomorphic change along Caulks Creek, simulated the hydrologic and hydraulic response of Caulks Creek to a variety of design storm scenarios, and simulated bank retreat resulting from fluvial erosion and mass failure processes. Six study reaches were selected for monitoring geomorphic change based on known locations of erosion issues documented by the city of Wildwood. Recent short-term rates and patterns of geomorphic change in the study reaches, with a focus on bank retreat, were determined from repeat terrestrial light detection and ranging surveys and field observations of the six study reaches. Historical aerial photographs of the study reaches were analyzed to determine long-term rates of bank retreat and channel widening. In general, rapid bank retreat and widening was observed at the outer banks of meander bends and where banks are unforested. Short-term bank retreat varied substantially within individual study reaches, across the study area, and during the study period from no change to as much as 16 feet of retreat between consecutive surveys (5 to 8 months). The field surveys and visual observations indicated that bank retreat occurs episodically owing to a combination of fluvial erosion and mass failure processes, as well as freezing and thawing cycles. Long-term rates of bank retreat ranged from 0.6 to 4.4 feet per year. Hydrologic and hydraulic models of Caulks Creek were used to quantify the peak, volume, and timing of the flow response and the spatial distribution of hydraulic drivers of erosion (velocity and shear stress) along Caulks Creek for design storm scenarios that represent current (as of this publication) and projected future climate. The projected climate conditions resulted in higher peak flows compared to current conditions, including 6 to 21 percent for the year 2050 and 10 to 42 percent for the year 2099 at the downstream end of the study area. Additionally, for a given design storm, projected climate change is predicted to result in faster flows with greater shear stress, as well as more within-stream variability in velocity and shear stress. Many factors affect the velocity and shear stress at a given location, but in general, somewhat fast velocities and high shear stresses tended to occur where the channel is relatively narrow and straight. The velocity and shear stress in the study reaches (known areas of widening and bank retreat) were not particularly high, at least in part owing to the relatively large widths and high sinuosity of the present-day channel in these reaches. The potential mitigating effect of adding runoff storage to the basin also was examined for a selection of design storm scenarios. Additional runoff storage was more effective at mitigating peak flows and total runoff volumes for higher-frequency, lower-intensity storms than for lower-frequency, higher-intensity storms. The additional storage also resulted in an overall reduction in velocity (by as much as 28 percent) and shear stress (by as much as 40 percent) in the study area. However, the effect of the additional storage on peak flows, total runoff volumes, velocity, and shear stress decreased with distance downstream through the study area. For the simulated scenarios, added runoff storage was effective at mitigating the increases in peak flows, total runoff volumes, velocity, and shear stress caused by projected climate change. Lastly, the bank stability and toe erosion model (BSTEM) was used to predict bank erosion and potential bank failure surfaces at five locations along Caulks Creek for a selection of design storm scenarios. The lower-frequency, higher-magnitude design storms resulted in more bank retreat than the higher-frequency, lower-magnitude design storms, though the magnitude of the difference was site dependent. Although scenarios with additional storage were not directly simulated in BSTEM, it is likely that the additional storage would result in reduced bank retreat compared to the same design storm with existing storage, based on the hydraulic modeling results for scenarios with added runoff storage.

Missouri↗

USGS2009

Relations between Municipal Water Use and Selected Meteorological Parameters and Drought Indices, East-Central and Northeast Florida

Water-use data collected between 1992 and 2006 at eight municipal water-supply utilities in east-central and northeast Florida were analyzed to identify seasonal trends in use and to quantify monthly variations. Regression analyses were applied to identify significant correlations between water use and selected meteorological parameters and drought indices. Selected parameters and indices include precipitation (P), air temperature (T), potential evapotranspiration (PET), available water (P-PET), monthly changes in these parameters (Delta P, Delta T, Delta PET, Delta(P-PET), the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Selected utilities include the City of Daytona Beach (Daytona), the City of Eustis (Eustis), Gainesville Regional Utilities (GRU), Jacksonville Electric Authority (JEA), Orange County Utilities (OCU), Orlando Utilities Commission (OUC), Seminole County Utilities (SCU), and the City of St. Augustine (St. Augustine). Water-use rates at these utilities in 2006 ranged from about 3.2 million gallons per day at Eustis to about 131 million gallons per day at JEA. Total water-use rates increased at all utilities throughout the 15-year period of record, ranging from about 4 percent at Daytona to greater than 200 percent at OCU and SCU. Metered rates, however, decreased at six of the eight utilities, ranging from about 2 percent at OCU and OUC to about 17 percent at Eustis. Decreases in metered rates occurred because the number of metered connections increased at a greater rate than did total water use, suggesting that factors other than just population growth may play important roles in water-use dynamics. Given the absence of a concurrent trend in precipitation, these decreases can likely be attributed to changes in non-climatic factors such as water-use type, usage of reclaimed water, water-use restrictions, demographics, and so forth. When averaged for the eight utilities, metered water-use rates depict a clear seasonal pattern in which rates were lowest in the winter and greatest in the late spring. Averaged water-use rates ranged from about 9 percent below the 15-year daily mean in January to about 11 percent above the daily mean in May. Water-use rates were found to be statistically correlated to meteorological parameters and drought indices, and to be influenced by system memory. Metered rates (in gallons per day per active metered connection) were consistently found to be influenced by P, T, PET, and P-PET and changes in these parameters that occurred in prior months. In the single-variant analyses, best correlations were obtained by fitting polynomial functions to plots of metered rates versus moving-averaged values of selected parameters (R2 values greater than 0.50 at three of eight sites). Overall, metered water-use rates were best correlated with the 3- to 4-month moving average of Delta T or Delta PET (R2 values up to 0.66), whereas the full suite of meteorological parameters was best correlated with metered rates at Daytona and least correlated with rates at St. Augustine. Similarly, metered rates were substantially better correlated with moving-averaged values of precipitation (significant at all eight sites) than with single (current) monthly values (significant at only three sites). Total and metered water-use rates were positively correlated with T, PET, Delta P, Delta T, and Delta PET, and negatively correlated with P, P-PET, Delta (P-PET), PDSI, and SPI. The drought indices were better correlated with total water-use rates than with metered rates, whereas metered rates were better correlated with meteorological parameters. Multivariant analyses produced fits of the data that explained a greater degree of the variance in metered rates than did the single-variant analyses. Adjusted R2 values for the 'best' models ranged from 0.79 at JEA to 0.29 at St. Augustine and exceeded 0.60 at five of eight sites. The amount of available water (P-PET) was the si

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2019

The hydrologic system of the south Florida peninsula—Development and application of the Biscayne and Southern Everglades Coastal Transport (BISECT) model

The Biscayne and Southern Everglades Coastal Transport (BISECT) model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey under the Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystem Studies Initiative to evaluate, both separately and in conjunction, the likely effects on surface-water stages and flows, hydroperiod, and groundwater levels and salinity in south Florida of (1) a vertical Biscayne aquifer barrier to maintain higher wetland levels, (2) possible future changes to current water-management practices, and (3) sea-level rise. The BISECT model is a combination of the Tides and Inflows to the Mangrove Everglades (TIME) and Biscayne models of the western and eastern parts of south Florida including Everglades National Park, the southern Miami-Dade urban area, and the Biscayne Bay coast and simulates hydrodynamic surface-water flow and three-dimensional groundwater conditions dynamically for the period 1996–2004 by using the Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density-Dependent System (FTLOADDS) simulator. BISECT includes a number of parameter and algorithmic refinements that improve simulation results relative to the TIME and Biscayne models and represents the hydrologic system more explicitly, including (1) improved topographic representations, (2) refined Manning’s friction coefficients, (3) improved evapotranspiration computation through spatially variable albedo, (4) increased vertical aquifer discretization, and (5) extension of the western boundary farther offshore. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that simulated flows into Long Sound have a different pattern of response to tidal amplitude, wind, and frictional resistance changes than do other coastal streams in the model; flows at Broad River and Lostmans River are most sensitive to tidal amplitude, wind, and frictional resistance changes; and flow to the Everglades coastal streams is substantially affected by surface-water/groundwater interactions in the eastern urban areas. Insight into the hydrologic system came from scenario simulations that represent proposed management actions, such as grouting of the aquifer to prevent seepage from the wetlands and changes to water deliveries proposed by the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), and projected sea-level rise. These scenario management changes are considered separately to isolate their specific effects and also in conjunction with sea-level rise. Scenario simulations show that (1) attempts to prevent seepage from the wetlands by grouting the aquifer along the L 31N levee produce minimal effects on surface-water levels; (2) the increased water deliveries proposed in the CERP redistribute flow to the northwestern coastal part of the study area with a minimal reduction to the southeast and a more substantial reduction in flows in the intervening coastal zones, mitigating some sea-level rise effects; (3) sea-level rise has a larger effect on the hydrology (water levels, flow, and salinity) than does CERP restoration; and (4) support for ecological models and hydrologic studies can be provided by applying BISECT to scenarios influenced by climatic and anthropogenic changes or by meteorological variability, such as extreme wet or dry periods.

Florida↗

USGS2018

Promoting synergy in the innovative use of environmental data—Workshop summary

From December 2 to 4, 2015, NatureServe and the U.S. Geological Survey organized and hosted a biodiversity and ecological informatics workshop at the U.S. Department of the Interior in Washington, D.C. The workshop objective was to identify user-driven future directions and areas of collaboration in advanced applications of environmental data applied to forecasting and decision making for the sustainability of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Substantial effort to recruit attendees from diverse Federal, State, and private sector organizations successfully attracted participants from 20 Federal agencies and 48 different institutions in the academic, nonprofit, State government, and commercial sectors; the total number of attendees ranged from 100 to 144 during the 3-day workshop. The first one-half of the workshop was divided into 7 plenary sessions and 3 sets of lightning talk sessions organized by sector, providing 48 oral and visual plenary presentations that shared diverse perspectives on biodiversity and ecological informatics, including original biospatial analyses from 6 graduate student map contest winners. The second one-half of the workshop focused on 10 breakout sessions with participant-driven themes from the environmental data sphere and concluded with an address by the Director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The workshop was structured to encourage interactivity. About 80–90 percent of attendees provided direct feedback using clicker devices for specific questions related to biodiversity and ecological data uses and needs, and 10 breakout session leaders shared the highlights of their group discussions during the final workshop plenary sessions. Participants were encouraged to use the Twitter hashtag #ShareUrData. Over lunch on day 2 there were 20 simultaneous presentations of tools and apps during a special “Tools Café” session. The 10 participant-defined breakout session topics are listed below: Ecosystem services and ecological indicators Inventory and monitoring Biogeographic map of the Nation Pollinators Invasive species Remote sensing Drivers of agricultural change Citizen science Climate Hydrology and watersheds Numerous common themes that emerged from the workshop include the following: The vital importance of completing foundational environmental datasets that are nationally consistent and are essential to multiple sectors, such as the Soil Survey Geographic database high-resolution soils data, a minimum 5-meter resolution digital elevation model, national hydrographic data, high-resolution land cover data, time series high-resolution spatial climate data from historical to future time steps, and a national wetland inventory. Improved, nationally consistent environmental datasets (integrated with targeted observations) will dramatically advance forecasting capacity and support early warning systems (that is, drought, forest disease); however, multiagency coordination should focus on decision support tools that convey appropriate actions and responses to adapt to, and mitigate, potential negative consequences. Digitizing and providing access to the vast stores of underused historical data that can be leveraged for this purpose is of national importance. Modern computational techniques and the ever-increasing flow of environmental data from ground and remote observations can support improved understanding of environmental change. Success of understanding patterns of change for decision making requires establishing baselines from which change can be measured. The value of digitized historical data is greater than ever before. There is a need to recognize the multifaceted potential of citizen science to engage the public in resource stewardship, to create the next generation of science, technology, engineering, math, and environmental leaders, and to have sufficient field personnel to monitor environmental trends, including early detection of alien invasive species, phenological shifts, shifting distribution and abundance of indicator species, and species inventories. The Federal government has an essential role in creating the infrastructure to dramatically improve mobilization of citizen science (and other) data by fostering the following: creation of data standards, creation of nationally consistent framework datasets, vertical integration of observation data, visualization and dissemination of aggregated datasets, and calculation and communication of derived trends. Current and near future trends in the availability of remotely sensed data (rapid expansion of satellite fleets and drones) is revolutionizing access to near-real-time ecological data. Targeted integration with ground-based observations and instrumentation has an extremely valuable role in validating remotely sensed data, filling data gaps, improving data quality, and fully realizing the potential of the near-real-time monitoring of environmental indicator trends. Integrated management of environmental data at the landscape scale is required even as specific actions on the ground are largely local in nature. The workshop highlighted numerous success stories; however, almost every breakout group pointed out the still-too-fragmented nature of the current data landscape. Management and delivery of the necessary data, tools, and analyses to sustain our Nation’s environmental capital must be a collaborative effort between Federal, State, and local governments, academia, nonprofits, and the commercial sector, even though the responsibilities of each sector are different.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2016

Establishing links between streamflow and ecological integrity in the Sudbury River (Northeastern U.S.)

With increased pressure from a growing human population, managers are challenged to understand how novel disturbances (e.g., climate change, increased water withdrawals, urbanization) may affect natural resources. The Sudbury River is a National Wild and Scenic River located in suburban Boston, Massachusetts (Northeastern US) with myriad impairments (e.g., mainstem impoundments, withdrawals, and urbanization) that is under increasing pressure from hydrologic alteration. We sampled fish, mussel, and macroinvertebrate assemblages in the Sudbury River and used species traits to investigate potential effects of past and future flow alteration on biota. Analysis of 33 years of stream gage data indicates continued hydrologic alteration of the Sudbury River, likely related to increased urbanization and water withdrawals over that time. These changes include a roughly 200% increase in rise rates of flows, an approximate 65% decrease in 1-day minimum flows, and a trend towards increasing high flow pulse counts. Biotic sampling in summer of 2014 demonstrated that the Sudbury River is now dominated by generalist species. Of five mussel species sampled, all are generalists in their habitat requirements. Though one mussel species of special concern was sampled, the most abundant species collected were the widespread Eastern elliptio (58%) and Eastern lampmussel (40%). We used the target fish community (TFC) model to assess the degree to which the fish assemblage deviated from that expected for a river with similar zoogeographic and physical features. Overall, the current community has a 22.7% similarity to the TFC. Of the four fluvial specialist species present in the TFC, only fallfish was sampled in our study. While the TFC showed that the historical assemblage was likely dominated by fluvial specialist and fluvial dependent species, the current assemblage is overwhelmingly dominated by macrohabitat generalists (90.6% of fishes sampled). These results are consistent with other studies that show shifts in assemblages from fluvial specialists to habitat generalists with hydrologic alteration. If the current trends continue, it is likely that biotic assemblages will experience increasing pressure from hydrologic alteration. While hydrologic alteration is likely impacting biotic assemblages in the Sudbury River, other factors such as high temperatures, low dissolved oxygen, high nutrients, low availability of high-quality habitat, and poor habitat connectivity may also be negatively impacting biotic assemblages. Comparisons to other rivers and a complete longitudinal habitat survey could help to identify availability of unique habitats and representativeness of this study. While this study suggests impacts of flow on biota, future studies with quantitative, habitat-specific sampling during different flow levels could help to directly identify links between hydrologic alteration and biotic impairment in the Sudbury River.

Massachussetts↗

USGS2021

Water-quality trends of urban streams in Independence, Missouri, 2005–18

The U.S. Geological Survey and the city of Independence, Missouri, Water Pollution Control Department has studied the water quality and ecological condition of urban streams within Independence since 2005. Selected physical properties, nutrients, chloride, fecal indicator bacteria (Escherichia coli and total coliform), total dissolved solids, and suspended-sediment concentration data for base-flow and stormflow samples were used to document temporal trends in concentrations and flow-weighted concentrations; and annual loads were computed and investigated for selected nutrients, chloride, and suspended sediment. The six study sites included in this report are located on five urban streams: Rock Creek, a tributary in the city that drains to the Missouri River; three tributaries of the Little Blue River within the city (East Fork Little Blue River, Adair Creek, and Spring Branch Creek); and two sites on the main stem of the Little Blue River (one upstream from the city and one downstream from the three tributaries). Many factors such as population, land use, and climate, and combinations of these factors contributed to the significant changes in the concentrations and transport of nutrients, chloride, fecal indicator bacteria, and suspended sediment in the urban streams within Independence. The population of Independence and the amount of developed land in the urban watersheds remained unchanged during the 2005–18 study. Differences were noted in precipitation and in streamflow during the study. Annual precipitation and streamflow were separated into two time periods within the study—period 1 (2006–10), having greater annual streamflow and precipitation, and period 2 (2011–18), having about 30 percent lower annual streamflow and less precipitation. Streamflow was an important factor in the transport of nitrogen, phosphorus, chloride, and suspended sediment from the urban watersheds. Changes in data collection methodology during the study period and improvements to the city stormwater and wastewater infrastructure also could have contributed to some of the trends. Between 2009 and 2015, more than 35 million dollars of improvements were made to stormwater and wastewater infrastructure within the city. These improvements, such as additional sewage overflow holding tanks, removal of septic tanks, and improved and expanded sanitary sewer lines and storm overflows, also could have affected the decreased nutrients and fecal indicator bacteria trends among the urban streams in the study area. Models were used for analyzing streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations and loads to determine if the water quality changed significantly during the study period. Trends in concentration data at four sites were analyzed using a statistical package called R–QWTREND and trends in load data were analyzed at six sites using a statistical package called Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season-Kalman filter (WRTDS–K); both developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and publicly available for use. Statistically significant trends in flow-weighted nutrient concentrations and loads generally were downward during the study period. The only nutrient compound with a statistically significant upward trend in flow-weighted concentration was dissolved orthophosphate as phosphorus at the Rock Creek site and the upstream site on the Little Blue River. A statistically significant downward trend in annual dissolved ammonia load was identified at the downstream Little Blue River site. A significant upward linear trend in annual orthophosphate as phosphorus load was identified on Adair Creek. A statistically significant upward trend in dissolved chloride concentrations was identified at the downstream Little Blue River site. Road salt application near the site during the winter could have resulted in higher concentrated runoff during wet weather conditions. Annual chloride loads significantly decreased in Adair Creek and Spring Branch Creek. The mean annual chloride load transported in the drier (2011–18) period 2 was significantly less than during the wetter (2006–10) period 1, indicating that trends in precipitation runoff are an important factor in trends in annual transport of chloride. Statistically significant downward trends in flow-weighted fecal indicator bacteria Escherichia coli (E. coli) population densities were noted for Rock Creek and the down-stream site on the Little Blue River. However, no trend was identified in E. coli population density at the upstream Little Blue River site. The downward trend in E. coli population density at the downstream site could be a result of decreased streamflow and precipitation over the study period, storage of fecal indicator bacteria in the Little Blue River streambed within the study area, die-off of fecal indicator bacteria during travel from upstream to downstream, changes in the sample collection methodology, improvements to the city’s storm-water and wastewater infrastructures, or a combination of these factors. The statistically significant downward trend in suspended-sediment concentration identified at the upstream Little Blue River site could be affected by the decreased streamflow and precipitation during the study period, by changes in sampling methods within the study period, and by the decrease in construction and urban land development upstream from the city. No statistically significant change was indicated in the annual suspended-sediment load transported from Independence to the Little Blue River during the study period. More than one-half the suspended sediment transported in the Little Blue River originated in the watershed upstream from Independence. The Little Blue River and many of its tributaries that drain Independence have been designated as recreational waters classified for whole-body contact class B and secondary contact recreation, and some have been listed as impaired for E. coli by the Missouri Department of Natural Resources from urban runoff and storm sewers. Observations were made among the available E. coli population density data for both Little Blue River sites to further understand water-quality conditions over the study period. Both Little Blue River sites had similar medians and geometric means for the recreational season (April through October) and during the full study period, both of which are greater than the regulatory population density for both recreational classes. The Little Blue River drainage area nearly doubles in size from the upstream to downstream site; therefore, the consistent geometric mean and median of E. coli population densities at the upstream and downstream Little Blue River sites could be primarily due to the larger volume of streamflow creating a dilution effect. Other possible factors could be storage of fecal indicator bacteria in stream bed sediments, die-off of fecal indicator bacteria during transport, improvements to the city’s wastewater and stormwater infrastructure, changes to sampling methodology, or a combination of these factors. Specific sources of the E. coli are currently (2019) unknown.

Missouri↗

USGS2010

Water-the Nation's Fundamental Climate Issue A White Paper on the U.S. Geological Survey Role and Capabilities

Of all the potential threats posed by climatic variability and change, those associated with water resources are arguably the most consequential for both society and the environment (Waggoner, 1990). Climatic effects on agriculture, aquatic ecosystems, energy, and industry are strongly influenced by climatic effects on water. Thus, understanding changes in the distribution, quantity and quality of, and demand for water in response to climate variability and change is essential to planning for and adapting to future climatic conditions. A central role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) with respect to climate is to document environmental changes currently underway and to develop improved capabilities to predict future changes. Indeed, a centerpiece of the USGS role is a new Climate Effects Network of monitoring sites. Measuring the climatic effects on water is an essential component of such a network (along with corresponding effects on terrestrial ecosystems). The USGS needs to be unambiguous in communicating with its customers and stakeholders, and with officials at the Department of the Interior, that although modeling future impacts of climate change is important, there is no more critical role for the USGS in climate change science than that of measuring and describing the changes that are currently underway. One of the best statements of that mission comes from a short paper by Ralph Keeling (2008) that describes the inspiration and the challenges faced by David Keeling in operating the all-important Mauna Loa Observatory over a period of more than four decades. Ralph Keeling stated: 'The only way to figure out what is happening to our planet is to measure it, and this means tracking changes decade after decade and poring over the records.' There are three key ideas that are important to the USGS in the above-mentioned sentence. First, to understand what is happening requires measurement. While models are a tool for learning and testing our understanding, they are not a substitute for observations. The second key idea is that measurement needs to be done over a period of many decades. When viewing hydrologic records over time scales of a few years to a few decades, trends commonly appear. However, when viewed in the context of many decades to centuries, these short-term trends are recognized as being part of much longer term oscillations. Thus, while we might want to initiate monitoring of important aspects of our natural resources, the data that will prove to be most useful in the next few years are those records that already have long-term continuity. USGS streamflow and groundwater level data are excellent examples of such long-term records. These measured data span many decades, follow standard protocols for collection and quality assurance, and are stored in a database that provides access to the full period of record. The third point from the Keeling quote relates to the notion of ?poring over the records.? Important trends will not generally jump off the computer screen at us. Thoughtful analyses are required to get past a number of important but confounding influences in the record, such as the role of seasonal variation, changes in water management, or influences of quasi-periodic phenomena, such as El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). No organization is better situated to pore over the records than the USGS because USGS scientists know the data, quality-assure the data, understand the factors that influence the data, and have the ancillary information on the watersheds within which the data are collected. To fulfill the USGS role in understanding climatic variability and change, we need to continually improve and strengthen two of our key capabilities: (1) preserving continuity of long-term water data collection and (2) analyzing and interpreting water data to determine how the Nation's water resources are changing. Understanding change in water resources

Circular↗

USGS2008

An evaluation of selected extraordinary floods in the United States reported by the U.S. Geological Survey and implications for future advancement of flood science

Thirty flood peak discharges determine the envelope curve of maximum floods documented in the United States by the U.S. Geological Survey. These floods occurred from 1927 to 1978 and are extraordinary not just in their magnitude, but in their hydraulic and geomorphic characteristics. The reliability of the computed discharge of these extraordinary floods was reviewed and evaluated using current (2007) best practices. Of the 30 flood peak discharges investigated, only 7 were measured at daily streamflow-gaging stations that existed when the flood occurred, and 23 were measured at miscellaneous (ungaged) sites. Methods used to measure these 30 extraordinary flood peak discharges consisted of 21 slope-area measurements, 2 direct current-meter measurements, 1 culvert measurement, 1 rating-curve extension, and 1 interpolation and rating-curve extension. The remaining four peak discharges were measured using combinations of culvert, slope-area, flow-over-road, and contracted-opening measurements. The method of peak discharge determination for one flood is unknown. Changes to peak discharge or rating are recommended for 20 of the 30 flood peak discharges that were evaluated. Nine floods retained published peak discharges, but their ratings were downgraded. For two floods, both peak discharge and rating were corrected and revised. Peak discharges for five floods that are subject to significant uncertainty due to complex field and hydraulic conditions, were re-rated as estimates. This study resulted in 5 of the 30 peak discharges having revised values greater than about 10 percent different from the original published values. Peak discharges were smaller for three floods (North Fork Hubbard Creek, Texas; El Rancho Arroyo, New Mexico; South Fork Wailua River, Hawaii), and two peak discharges were revised upward (Lahontan Reservoir tributary, Nevada; Bronco Creek, Arizona). Two peak discharges were indeterminate because they were concluded to have been debris flows with peak discharges that were estimated by an inappropriate method (slope-area) (Big Creek near Waynesville, North Carolina; Day Creek near Etiwanda, California). Original field notes and records could not be found for three of the floods, however, some data (copies of original materials, records of reviews) were available for two of these floods. A rating was assigned to each of seven peak discharges that had no rating. Errors identified in the reviews include misidentified flow processes, incorrect drainage areas for very small basins, incorrect latitude and longitude, improper field methods, arithmetic mistakes in hand calculations, omission of measured high flows when developing rating curves, and typographical errors. Common problems include use of two-section slope-area measurements, poor site selection, uncertainties in Manning’s n -values, inadequate review, lost data files, and insufficient and inadequately described high-water marks. These floods also highlight the extreme difficulty in making indirect discharge measurements following extraordinary floods. Significantly, none of the indirect measurements are rated better than fair, which indicates the need to improve methodology to estimate peak discharge. Highly unsteady flow and resulting transient hydraulic phenomena, two-dimensional flow patterns, debris flows at streamflow-gaging stations, and the possibility of disconnected flow surfaces are examples of unresolved problems not well handled by current indirect discharge methodology. On the basis of a comprehensive review of 50,000 annual peak discharges and miscellaneous floods in California, problems with individual flood peak discharges would be expected to require a revision of discharge or rating curves at a rate no greater than about 0.10 percent of all floods. Many extraordinary floods create complex flow patterns and processes that cannot be adequately documented with quasi-steady, uniform one-dimensional analyses. These floods are most accurately described by multidimensional flow analysis. Within the U.S. Geological Survey, new approaches are needed to collect more accurate data for floods, particularly extraordinary floods. In recent years, significant progress has been made in instrumentation for making direct discharge measurements. During this same period, very little has been accomplished in advancing methods to improve indirect discharge measurements. Greater use of paleoflood hydrology could fill many shortcomings of U.S. Geological Survey flood science today, such as enhanced knowledge of flood frequency. Additional links among flood runoff, storm structure, and storm motion would provide more insight to flood hazards. Significant improvement in understanding flood processes and characteristics could be gained from linking radar rainfall estimation and hydrologic modeling. Additionally, more could be done to provide real-time flood-hazard warnings with linked rainfall/runoff and flow models. Several important recommendations are made to improve the flood-documentation capability of the U.S. Geological Survey. When very large discharges are measured by current meter or hydroacoustics, water-surface slope should be measured as well. This measurement would allow validation of roughness values that can significantly extend the discharge range of verified Manning’s n for 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional flow analyses. At least two of the floods investigated may have had flow so unstable that large waves affected the interpretation of high-water marks. Instability criteria should be considered for hydraulic analysis of large flows in high-gradient, smooth channels. The U.S. Geological Survey needs to modernize its toolbox of field and office practices for making future indirect discharge measurements. These practices could include, first and foremost, a new peak-flow file database that allows greater description and interpretation of flow events, such as stability criteria in high-gradient, smooth channels, debris flow documentation, and details of flood genesis (hurricane, snowmelt, rain-on-snow, dam failure, and the like). Other modernized practices could include (a) establishment of calibrated stream reaches in chronic flash flood basins to expedite indirect computation of flow; (b) development of process-based theoretical rating curves for streamflow-gaging stations; (c) adoption of step-backwater models as the standard surface-water modeling tool for U.S. Geological Survey field offices; (d) development and support for multidimensional flow models capable of describing flood characteristics in complex terrain and high-gradient channels; (e) greater use of the critical-depth method in appropriate locations; (f) deployment of non-contact instruments to directly measure large floods, rather than attempting to reconstruct them; (g) increased use of paleoflood hydrology; and (h) assurance that future collection of hydro-climatic data meets the needs of more robust watershed models.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS1989

Studies of geology and hydrology in the Basin and Range Province, Southwestern United States, for isolation of high-level radioactive waste - Basis of characterization and evaluation

The geologic and hydrologic factors in selected regions of the Basin and Range province were examined to identify prospective areas for further study that may provide isolation of high-level radioactive waste from the accessible environment. The six regions selected for study were characterized with respect to the following guidelines: (1) Potential repository media; (2) Quaternary tectonic conditions; (3) climatic change and geomorphic processes; (4) ground-water conditions; (5) ground-water quality; and (6) mineral and energy resources. The repository medium will function as the first natural barrier to radionuclide travel by virtue of associated slow ground-water velocity. The principal rock types considered as host media include granitic, intermediate, and mafic intrusive rocks; argillaceous rocks; salt and anhydrite; volcanic mudflow (laharic) breccias; some intrusive rhyolitic plugs and stocks; partially zeolitized tuff; and metamorphic rocks. In the unsaturated zone, the permeability and hydrologic properties of the rocks and the hydrologic setting are more important than the rock type. Media ideally should be permeable to provide drainage and should have a minimal water flux The ground-water flow path from a repository to the accessible environment needs to present major barriers to the transport of radionuclides. Factors considered in evaluating the ground-water conditions include ground-water traveltimes and quality, confining beds, and earth materials favorable for retardation of radionuclides. Ground-water velocities in the regions were calculated from estimated hydraulic properties of the rocks and gradients. Because site-specific data on hydraulic properties are not available, data from the literature were assembled and synthesized to obtain values for use in estimating ground-water velocities. Hydraulic conductivities for many rock types having granular and fracture permeability follow a log-normal distribution. Porosity for granular and very weathered crystalline rock tends to be normally distributed; porosity of fractured crystalline rock probably follows a log-normal distribution. The tectonic setting needs to prevent an increase in radionuclides to the accessible environment. Data on historic seismicity and heat flow, Quaternary faults, volcanism, and uplift were used to assess the tectonic conditions. Long-term late Cenozoic rates of vertical crustal movement in the Basin and Range province range from less than 2 meters per 104 years to greater than 20 meters per 104 years. Shortterm rates of vertical movement may be more than an order of magnitude greater, based on geodetic leveling. Changes in tectonic and climatic processes may potentially cause changes in hydrologic conditions and geomorphology that could affect the integrity of a deep, mined repository either adversely or beneficially. The transition from a full-glacial climate to the current interglacial condition has occurred within the past 15,000 years. Reconstructions of the last full-glacial climate indicate that, at that time, there was greater water availability for runoff and vegetation growth than there is now. Based on the increased water availability and depending on seasonal distribution of precipitation, on soil characteristics, on topography, and on other characteristics, ground-water recharge during the full-glacial climate is estimated to have been possibly 2 to 10 or more times the modern rate. During the full-glacial climate, more than 100 lakes occupied closed basins in the province. Any increase in ground-water recharge and refilling of Pleistocene lakes will tend to decrease the distance of ground-water flow and its time of travel. The unsaturated zone this zone is considered a potential host medium where the thickness is greater than 150 m will be decreased by these changes. In contrast, incision of streams and other geomorphic, tectonic, or climatically induced changes that lower the ground-water discharge level will tend to increase the thickness of the unsaturated zone. Aggradation in basinal troughs may either decrease or increase the thickness of the unsaturated zone. Aggradation in basins that causes the ground-water discharge level to rise will tend to decrease the thickness of unsaturated zone in the adjacent uplands; aggradation in basins where the ground-water discharge level remains the same or is lowered will increase the unsaturated thickness of basin fill. Records show that, throughout late Cenozoic time in the Basin and Range province, continued vertical crustal movements have tended to maintain mountain ranges and closed basins, whereas aggradation of the basins and erosion of the mountain ranges have tended to decrease the topographic relief. Maximum rates of denudation for small basins in areas climatically similar to the Basin and Range province are about 2 meters per 104 years. For sites unaffected by stream incision and scarp retreat, a conservative estimate of erosion affecting long-term changes in depth of burial would appear to be 2 meters per 104 years, or, equal to the long-term rate of vertical crustal movement where greater than 2 meters per 104 years. The response of the ground-water conditions to climatic and geomorphically induced boundary conditions is significant from the points of: (1) The potential maximum change in the ground-water flow system; (2) the time of response of the ground-water system; and (3) the present state of the ground-water system as a result of past changes. Effects of longterm climatic and tectonic changes on hydrologic and geomorphic conditions differ from area to area, and rates of change of geomorphic and hydrologic conditions may vary significantly. Therefore, sitespecific studies need to be made to assess the long-term integrity of deep, mined repositories.

Arizona, California, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Te↗

USGS2017

Hydrogeology and simulation of groundwater flow and analysis of projected water use for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer, western and central Oklahoma

This report describes a study of the hydrogeology and simulation of groundwater flow for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer in western and central Oklahoma conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board. The report (1) quantifies the groundwater resources of the Canadian River alluvial aquifer by developing a conceptual model, (2) summarizes the general water quality of the Canadian River alluvial aquifer groundwater by using data collected during August and September 2013, (3) evaluates the effects of estimated equal proportionate share (EPS) on aquifer storage and streamflow for time periods of 20, 40, and 50 years into the future by using numerical groundwater-flow models, and (4) evaluates the effects of present-day groundwater pumping over a 50-year period and sustained hypothetical drought conditions over a 10-year period on stream base flow and groundwater in storage by using numerical flow models. The Canadian River alluvial aquifer is a Quaternary-age alluvial and terrace unit consisting of beds of clay, silt, sand, and fine gravel sediments unconformably overlying Tertiary-, Permian-, and Pennsylvanian-age sedimentary rocks. For groundwater-flow modeling purposes, the Canadian River was divided into Reach I, extending from the Texas border to the Canadian River at the Bridgeport, Okla., streamgage (07228500), and Reach II, extending downstream from the Canadian River at the Bridgeport, Okla., streamgage (07228500), to the confluence of the river with Eufaula Lake. The Canadian River alluvial aquifer spans multiple climate divisions, ranging from semiarid in the west to humid subtropical in the east. The average annual precipitation in the study area from 1896 to 2014 was 34.4 inches per year (in/yr). A hydrogeologic framework of the Canadian River alluvial aquifer was developed that includes the areal and vertical extent of the aquifer and the distribution, texture variability, and hydraulic properties of aquifer materials. The aquifer areal extent ranged from less than 0.2 to 8.5 miles wide. The maximum aquifer thickness was 120 feet (ft), and the average aquifer thickness was 50 ft. Average horizontal hydraulic conductivity for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer was calculated to be 39 feet per day, and the maximum horizontal hydraulic conductivity was calculated to be 100 feet per day. Recharge rates to the Canadian River alluvial aquifer were estimated by using a soil-water-balance code to estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater recharge and a water-table fluctuation method to estimate localized recharge rates. By using daily precipitation and temperature data from 39 climate stations, recharge was estimated to average 3.4 in/yr, which corresponds to 8.7 percent of precipitation as recharge for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer from 1981 to 2013. The water-table fluctuation method was used at one site where continuous water-level observation data were available to estimate the percentage of precipitation that becomes groundwater recharge. Estimated annual recharge at that site was 9.7 in/yr during 2014. Groundwater flow in the Canadian River alluvial aquifer was identified and quantified by a conceptual flow model for the period 1981–2013. Inflows to the Canadian River alluvial aquifer include recharge to the water table from precipitation, lateral flow from the surrounding bedrock, and flow from the Canadian River, whereas outflows include flow to the Canadian River (base-flow gain), evapotranspiration, and groundwater use. Total annual recharge inflows estimated by the soil-water-balance code were multiplied by the area of each reach and then averaged over the simulated period to produce an annual average of 28,919 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) for Reach I and 82,006 acre-ft/yr for Reach II. Stream base flow to the Canadian River was estimated to be the largest outflow of groundwater from the aquifer, measured at four streamgages, along with evapotranspiration and groundwater use, which were relatively minor discharge components. Objectives for the numerical groundwater-flow models included simulating groundwater flow in the Canadian River alluvial aquifer from 1981 to 2013 to address groundwater use and drought scenarios, including calculation of the EPS pumping rates. The EPS for the alluvial and terrace aquifers is defined by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board as the amount of fresh water that each landowner is allowed per year per acre of owned land to maintain a saturated thickness of at least 5 ft in at least 50 percent of the overlying land of the groundwater basin for a minimum of 20 years. The groundwater-flow models were calibrated to water-table altitude observations, streamgage base flows, and base-flow gain to the Canadian River. The Reach I water-table altitude observation root-mean-square error was 6.1 ft, and 75 percent of residuals were within ±6.7 ft of observed measurements. The average simulated stream base-flow residual at the Bridgeport streamgage (07228500) was 8.8 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s), and 75 percent of residuals were within ±30 ft 3 /s of observed measurements. Simulated base-flow gain in Reach I was 8.8 ft 3 /s lower than estimated base-flow gain. The Reach II water-table altitude observation root-mean-square error was 4 ft, and 75 percent of residuals were within ±4.3 ft of the observations. The average simulated stream base-flow residual in Reach II was between 35 and 132 ft 3 /s. The average simulated base-flow gain residual in Reach II was between 11.3 and 61.1 ft 3 /s. Several future predictive scenarios were run, including estimating the EPS pumping rate for 20-, 40-, and 50-year life of basin scenarios, determining the effects of current groundwater use over a 50-year period into the future, and evaluating the effects of a sustained drought on water availability for both reaches. The EPS pumping rate was determined to be 1.35 acre-feet per acre per year ([acre-ft/acre]/yr) in Reach I and 3.08 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach II for a 20-year period. For the 40- and 50-year periods, the EPS rate was determined to be 1.34 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach I and 3.08 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach II. Storage changes decreased in tandem with simulated groundwater pumping and were minimal after the first 15 simulated years for Reach I and the first 8 simulated years for Reach II. Groundwater pumping at year 2013 rates for a period of 50 years resulted in a 0.2-percent decrease in groundwater-storage volumes in Reach I and a 0.6-percent decrease in the groundwater-storage volumes in Reach II. The small changes in storage are due to groundwater use by pumping, which composes a small percentage of the total groundwater-flow model budgets for Reaches I and II. A sustained drought scenario was used to evaluate the effects of a hypothetical 10-year drought on water availability. A 10-year period was chosen where the effects of drought conditions would be simulated by decreasing recharge by 75 percent. In Reach I, average simulated stream base flow at the Bridgeport streamgage (07228500) decreased by 58 percent during the hypothetical 10-year drought compared to average simulated stream base flow during the nondrought period. In Reach II, average simulated stream base flows at the Purcell streamgage (07229200) and Calvin streamgage (07231500) decreased by 64 percent and 54 percent, respectively. In Reach I, the groundwater-storage drought scenario resulted in a storage decline of 30 thousand acre-feet, or an average decline in the water table of 1.2 ft. In Reach II, the groundwater-storage drought scenario resulted in a storage decline of 71 thousand acre-feet, or an average decline in the water table of 2.0 ft.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2018

Factors affecting long-term trends in surface-water quality in the Gwynns Falls watershed, Baltimore City and County, Maryland, 1998–2016

Factors affecting water-quality trends in urban streams are not well understood, despite current regulatory requirements and considerable ongoing investments in gray and green infrastructure. To address this gap, long-term water-quality trends and factors affecting these trends were examined in the Gwynns Falls, Maryland, watershed during 1998–2016 in cooperation with Blue Water Baltimore. Data on water-quality constituents and potential factors of influence were obtained from multiple sources and compiled for analysis, with a focus on data collected as part of the National Science Foundation funded Long-Term Ecological Research project, the Baltimore Ecosystem Study. Variability in climate (specifically, precipitation) and land cover can overwhelm actions taken to improve water quality and can present challenges for meeting regulatory goals. Analysis of land cover during 2001–11 in the Gwynns Falls watershed indicated minimal change during the study time frame; therefore, land-cover change is likely not a factor affecting trends in water quality. However, a modest increase in annual precipitation and a significant increase in winter precipitation were apparent in the region. A higher proportion of runoff producing storms was observed in the winter and a lower proportion in the summer, indicating that climate change may affect water quality in the watershed. The increase in precipitation was not reflected in annual or seasonal trends of streamflow in the watershed. Nonetheless, these precipitation changes may exacerbate the inflow and infiltration of water to gray infrastructure and reduce the effectiveness of green infrastructure. For streamflow and most water-quality constituents examined, no discernable trends were noted over the timeframe examined. Despite the increases in precipitation, no trends were observed for annual or seasonal discharge at the various sites within the study area. In some locations, nitrate, phosphate, and total nitrogen show downward trends, and total phosphorus and chloride show upward trends. Sanitary sewer overflows (gray infrastructure) and best management practices (green infrastructure) were identified as factors affecting water-quality change. The duration of sanitary sewer overflows was positively correlated with annual loads of nutrients and bacteria, and the drainage area of best management practices was negatively correlated with annual loads of phosphate and sulfate. Results of the study indicate that continued investments in gray and green infrastructure are necessary for urban water-quality improvement. Although this outcome is not unexpected, long-term datasets such as the one used in this study, allow the effects of gray and green infrastructures to be quantified. Results of this study have implications for the Gwynns Falls watershed and its residents and Baltimore City and County managers. Moreover, outcomes are relevant to other watersheds in the metropolitan region that do not have the same long-term dataset. Further, this study has established a framework for ongoing statistical analysis of primary factors affecting urban water-quality trends as regulatory programs mature.

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