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Communications during fire events are complex. Nevertheless, training fire information officers to plan fire communications before events, and to communicate during fires in a way that accurately and promptly informs residents in fire-affected areas, can increase effectiveness, reduce anxiety, ensure residents have accurate information on which to act, help them make better decisions, and possibly save lives.
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This report details the application of the chains of consequences method within the postfire hazard context after the 2021 Cedar Creek and Muckamuck Fires around Okanogan County, Washington. The U.S. Geological Survey Social and Economic Analysis branch convened 20 stakeholders with content- and context-specific knowledge related to these fires and their postfire hazards in an April 2023 Postfire Hazards Chains of Consequences Workshop. Guided by U.S. Geological Survey facilitators, workshop participants identified the cascading consequences of a specific postfire hazard scenario before brainstorming interventions to reduce the likelihood and severity of those consequences. The participants worked across disciplinary boundaries to identify gaps in understanding around cascading postfire hazard consequences and to brainstorm multidisciplinary interventions.
This study utilized native chaparral and sage scrub shrubs to evaluate the impact of light summer irrigation on live fuel moisture content (LFMC) and predicted fire behavior. As to be expected LFMC varied markedly throughout the year being over 100% in winter in all species and treatments but differed markedly by treatment in the summer and fall. For most species lightly irrigated plants had the highest LFMC in the summer and fall, followed by thinned treatments and controls. These differences in moisture content coupled with structural differences in the vegetation contributed to expected differences in flame length and rate of spread. Lightly irrigated native shrubs planted around homes can reduce fire hazard and at the same time increase faunal diversity and other desirable features of utilizing native vegetation.
Accurate estimation of fuels is essential for wildland fire simulations as well as decision-making related to land management. Numerous research efforts have leveraged remote sensing and machine learning for classifying land cover and mapping forest vegetation species. In most cases that focused on surface fuel mapping, the spatial scale of interest was smaller than a few hundred square kilometers; thus, many small-scale site-specific models had to be created to cover the landscape at the national scale. The present work aims to develop a large-scale surface fuel identification model using a custom deep learning framework that can ingest multimodal data. Specifically, we use deep learning to extract information from multispectral signatures, high-resolution imagery, and biophysical climate and terrain data in a way that facilitates their end-to-end training on labeled data. A multi-layer neural network is used with spectral and biophysical data, and a convolutional neural network backbone is used to extract the visual features from high-resolution imagery. A Monte Carlo dropout mechanism was also devised to create a stochastic ensemble of models that can capture classification uncertainties while boosting the prediction performance. To train the system as a proof-of-concept, fuel pseudo-labels were created by a random geospatial sampling of existing fuel maps across California. Application results on independent test sets showed promising fuel identification performance with an overall accuracy ranging from 55% to 75%, depending on the level of granularity of the included fuel types. As expected, including the rare—and possibly less consequential—fuel types reduced the accuracy. On the other hand, the addition of high-resolution imagery improved classification performance at all levels.
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The Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (WAFWA) to satisfy the 45-day report requirement identified in Cooperative Agreement (F13AC00353) between WAFWA and the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) submit this “Gap Report”. This report summarizes the policy, fiscal and science challenges that land managers encounter related to the control and reduction of the invasive plant/fire complex, especially as it relates to the threaten or endangered species listing status of the Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ). While this Gap Report identifies 22 technical, policy, planning and funding gaps, it should be considered a “work in-progress”. To address this effort a Wildfire/Invasive Initiative Work Group (WG) was formed. The WG consist of nationally recognized experts in fire ecology, Sage-grouse ecology and management, range management and plant ecology. The WG developed this Gap Report and will be developing the final report for this Cooperative Agreement. Thus, as the WG evaluates the wildfire/invasive issue and makes recommendation to address scientific and management shortcomings, additional gaps will be identified and included in the final report. Within this report, the WG has suggested the top 5 gaps. However, the actual priority of what should be addressed first will depend on the significance and sequence of the limiting factor, available funding, current work, roles and responsibilities of the specific agencies, etc. The WG will continue to meet on a regular basis to further develop and expand this list of gaps. Additionally, the WG will offer specific options to address the identified gaps. However, the WG recommends that the FWS, possibly through the State/Federal (Western Governors Association) Sage Grouse Task Force or the National Sage-grouse Executive Oversight Committee, establish a Subcommittee to specifically review this Gap Report and develop a multi-agency approach on how to address each gap. The WG will continue to endeavor to establish a priority list and identify the “low hanging fruit” that can be addressed in the short-term to affect the listing decision. Additionally, the WG will propose a longer-term strategy. However, to successfully establish such a strategy it will take buy-in and commitment at the highest levels in federal and state governments. In an effort to provide managers an opportunity to address the most important issues this coming fiscal year, we offer the following top 5 gaps. Beyond these top 5, the WG has identified 17 additional gaps that should be evaluated by both federal and state agencies as a means to help better manage the wildfire/invasive threat in the west.
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No abstract available.