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USGS2008

Temporal Differences in Flow Depth and Velocity Distributions and Hydraulic Microhabitats Near Bridges of the Lower Platte River, Nebraska, 1934-2006

As part of a collaborative study of the cumulative impacts on stream and riparian ecology of water and channel management practices in the lower Platte River, Nebraska, this report describes a study by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Lower Platte South Natural Resources District that summarizes: (1) temporal differences in distribution of streamflow depth, velocity, and microhabitats among five discrete 11-water-year periods 1934-44, 1951-61, 1966-76, 1985-95, and 1996-2006, and (2) the effects of bridge proximity on distribution of streamflow depth, velocity, and microhabitat of the Platte River when cross sections were measured at a similar discharge. The scope of the study included the four presently (2008) active streamflow-gaging stations located near bridges over the lower Platte River at North Bend, near Leshara, near Ashland, and at Louisville, Nebraska, and the most downstream streamflow-gaging station within the central Platte River segment near Duncan, Nebraska. Generally, in cases where temporal differences in streamflow depth and velocity were evident, at least one of the water-year periods from 1934 through 1995 had deeper streamflow than the recent water-year period (1996-2006). Temporal differences in distributions of streamflow depth were not strongly associated with differences in either climatic conditions or the maximum peak flow that occurred prior to the latest discharge measurement during each period. The relative cross-sectional area of most hydraulic niches did not differ among the water-year periods. Part of this apparent uniformity likely was an artifact of the broad microhabitat classification used for this study. In cases where temporal differences in relative cross-sectional area of hydraulic niches were evidenced, the differences occurred during high- and low-flow conditions, not during median flow conditions. The temporal differences in relative cross-sectional area were found more frequently for hydraulic niches defined by moderate and fast velocities than for hydraulic niches defined by slow velocities. Generally, any significant increase or decrease in the relative cross-sectional areas of hydraulic niches during the water-year periods from 1934 through 1995 had disappeared during the most recent water-year period, 1996-2006. Deep-Swift niche was the predominant hydraulic niche for all near-bridge sites on the lower Platte River for high- and median-flow conditions. The Deep-Swift niche also was the predominant niche for the near-bridge sites near Ashland and at Louisville for low-flow conditions; for the near-bridge sites at North Bend and near Leshara, streamflow cross-sectional areas during low-flow conditions were shared among the Shallow-Moderate, Intermediate-Moderate, Intermediate-Swift, and Deep-Swift hydraulic niches. For the near-bridge site near Duncan, the site farthest downstream in the central Platte River system, the Deep-Swift hydraulic niche was predominant only during high-flow conditions; during median- and low-flow conditions the relative cross-sectional area was shared among the Shallow-Slow, Shallow-Moderate, Intermediate-Moderate, and Intermediate-Swift hydraulic niches. Significant temporal differences in the relative cross-sectional area of the Deep-Swift hydraulic niche were found for sites near the two farthest downstream bridges near Ashland and at Louisville, but only for low-flow conditions. The Deep-Swift microhabitat was of special interest because it is the preferred hydraulic habitat during the adult life of the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). Temporal differences in relative cross-sectional areas of the Glide low-flow geomorphic microhabitat that contained the Deep-Swift hydraulic niche also indicated that relative cross-sectional areas of the Glide during the 1951-61 and 1996-2006 water-year periods were lower than during the 1966-76 period. The temporal differences indicated that any significant temporal chang

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2021

Vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning for projected changes in water quality and quantity for protected areas in the upper Midwest

Climate change and the extreme weather associated with it can be a major challenge to natural resource managers charged with the protection, restoration, recovery, and management of wetlands and wildlife habitats. Forecasting the potential impacts of climate changes will be important for decision-makers and land managers seeking to minimize impacts to habitats, infrastructure, and wildlife populations and prepare for the future. In collaboration with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) managers, we developed a climate change vulnerability assessment to spatially evaluate climate vulnerabilities across the Midwest region. To create the vulnerability assessment, we convened resource managers and scientists working across the region to determine the components and scope of the vulnerability assessment. The vulnerability assessment was watershed-based and composed of 15 indicators of climate change and five indicators that reflect the capacity of a watershed to buffer against the effects of climate change. The indicators were selected by FWS managers to have broad applicability across systems and programs in the FWS. To facilitate usability, we created an online application that allows users to generate customizable vulnerability assessments. We then integrated the assessment into a process for engaging in climate change adaptation thinking as a precursor to formal planning, implementation, and monitoring of adaptation actions. The process we designed focused on understanding the components of the system, assessing climate change vulnerabilities, creating and describing possible climate change scenarios, and identifying impacts and adaptation options for each scenario. We piloted this process in a virtual workshop setting with FWS managers and biologists on the topic of managed wetland systems. This work is currently being used by the FWS to better understand regional vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies and to advance integration of climate science into formal planning processes.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗

USGS1980

Hydrologic evaluation of a hypothetical coal-mining site near Chrisney, Spencer County, Indiana

Protecting the water resources of the Nation is a major emphasis of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act, PL 95-87. Permanent regulations established for this Act by the Office of Surface Mining (OSM) require the issuance of a permit before mining begins. An application for a mining permit must include an assessment of the hydrologic characteristics of the mining site and adjacent area, and a projection of the potential impacts of mining activities on surface water and ground water. OSM's permanent regulations and guidelines provide little insight on the "how to" aspect of making the required hydrologic assessment. This investigation was completed to improve the understanding of the kinds of information needed to make such assessments by: (a) reviewing the regulations to determine what hydrologic information is required; (b) preparing an example hydrologic assessment based on the regulations; and (c) using the experience gained in (a) and (b) to identify areas lacking or needing additional data to make the required assessment. Hydrologic data for the study area were obtained from published and unpublished reports, maps, aerial photographs, personal interviews with residents in the area of the hypothetical mine site, and discussions with experts in the field. Where data were unavailable, "synthetic" data were generated by extrapolation from proximate or similar watersheds and (or) by assumptions based on experience or theory. Some field data were collected to corroborate and augment information originating from all these sources.

Indiana↗

USGS2014

Agricultural conversion without external water and nutrient inputs reduces terrestrial vegetation productivity

Driven by global population and standard of living increases, humanity co-opts a growing share of the planet's natural resources resulting in many well-known environmental trade-offs. In this study, we explored the impact of agriculture on a resource fundamental to life on Earth: terrestrial vegetation growth (net primary production; NPP). We demonstrate that agricultural conversion has reduced terrestrial NPP by ~7.0%. Increases in NPP due to agricultural conversion were observed only in areas receiving external inputs (i.e., irrigation and/or fertilization). NPP reductions were found for ~88% of agricultural lands, with the largest reductions observed in areas formerly occupied by tropical forests and savannas (~71% and ~66% reductions, respectively). Without policies that explicitly consider the impact of agricultural conversion on primary production, future demand-driven increases in agricultural output will likely continue to drive net declines in global terrestrial productivity, with potential detrimental consequences for net ecosystem carbon storage and subsequent climate warming.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2003

Lake belt study area: High-resolution seismic-reflection survey, Miami-Dade County Florida

Executive Summary The Northwest Dade County Freshwater Lake Plan Area (commonly referred to as the Lake Belt Area) is vital to the future planning and development of southeastern Florida. This area is located within one of the most environmentally sensitive parts of the state – the eastern borders of the Everglades National Park (ENP). The Lake Belt Area and Water Conservation Area BB (WCA BB) provide half of the limestone mining resources used in the state every year. Starting in the mid-1800s canals and levees were built in the area to drain and help develop economic and water resources including protection from floods and droughts. These construction projects have changed the natural water flow (hydropattern and hydroperiod) through the hydrologic system. Changes to the hydropattern and hydroperiod of the area have also had an adverse impact by disrupting the normal breeding patterns of species within the Everglades ecosystem

Florida↗

USGS2007

Age Determination of the Remaining Peat in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, USA

Introduction The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta of California was once a 1,400 square kilometer (km2) tidal marsh, which contained a vast layer of peat ranging up to 15 meters (m) thick (Atwater and Belknap, 1980). Because of its favorable climate and highly fertile peat soils, the majority of the Delta was drained and reclaimed for agriculture during the late 1800s and early 1900s. Drainage of the peat soils changed the conditions in the surface layers of peat from anaerobic (having no free oxygen present) to aerobic (exposed to the atmosphere). This change in conditions greatly increased the decomposition rate of the peat, which consists largely of organic (plant) matter. Thus began the process of land-surface subsidence, which initially was a result of peat shrinkage and compaction, and later largely was a result of oxidation by which organic carbon in the peat essentially vaporized to carbon dioxide (Deverel and others, 1998; Ingebritsen and Ikehara, 1999). Because of subsidence, the land-surface elevation on farmed islands in the Delta has decreased from a few meters to as much as 8 m below local mean sea level (California Department of Water Resources, 1995; Steve Deverel, Hydrofocus, Inc., written commun., 2007). The USGS, in collaboration with the University of California at Davis, and Hydrofocus Inc. of Davis, California, has been studying the formation of the Delta and the impact of wetland reclamation on the peat column as part of a project called Rates and Evolution of Peat Accretion through Time (REPEAT). The purpose of this report is to provide results on the age of the remaining peat soils on four farmed islands in the Delta.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2022

Diatom influence on the production characteristics of hydrate-bearing sediments: Examples from Ulleung Basin, offshore South Korea

The Ulleung Basin Gas Hydrate field expeditions in 2007 (UBGH1) and 2010 (UBGH2) sought to assess the Basin's gas hydrate resource potential. Coring operations in both expeditions recovered evidence of gas hydrate, primarily as fracture-filling (or vein type) morphologies in mainly silt-sized, fine-grained sediment, but also as pore-occupying hydrate in the coarser-grained layers of interbedded sand and fine-grained systems. A commonality across many of these occurrences is the presence of diatoms in the fine-grained sediment. Here we tested fine-grained sediment (median grain size <12.5 μm) associated with hydrate occurrences at four UBGH2 sites (UBGH2-2-2, UBGH2-3, UBGH2-6 and UBGH2-11) to investigate potential impacts of diatoms on efforts to extract methane from hydrate, or to tap hydrocarbon reservoirs beneath hydrate-bearing sediment. Two key considerations are: the extent to which diatoms control sediment mechanical properties, and the extent to which pore-water freshening, which occurs as gas hydrate breaks down during resource extraction, alters the diatom control on sediment mechanical properties. We conducted experiments to measure sediment index properties, sedimentation behavior and compressibility to address these considerations. We relied on scanning electron microscope (SEM) imagery and X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) to characterize the sediment mineralogy. Our high-level findings are that at the ∼20–45% (by volume) diatom concentrations observed at these UBGH2 sites, sediment compressibility increases with diatom content, but diatoms only appear to increase porosity and permeability at the highest diatom concentration (∼45%). Our measurements suggest in situ compression indices of 0.35–0.55 and permeabilities on the order of 0.01milliDarcies (1 × 10 −17 m 2 ) can be anticipated at these sites. Importantly, these properties are not expected to vary significantly upon pore water freshening that accompanies gas hydrate dissociation during production.

East Sea, Ulleung Basin↗

USGS2021

Permafrost promotes shallow groundwater flow and warmer headwater streams

The presence of permafrost influences the flow paths of water through Arctic landscapes and thereby has the potential to impact stream discharge and thermal regimes. Observations from eleven headwater streams in Alaska showed that July water temperatures were higher in catchments with more near‐surface permafrost. We apply a fully coupled cryohydrology model to investigate if the impact of permafrost on flow path depth could cause the same pattern in temperatures of groundwater discharging from hillslopes to streams. The model simulates surface energy and water balances, snow, and subsurface water and energy balances for two‐dimensional hillslope model cases with varying permafrost extent. We find that hillslopes with continuous permafrost have more shallow flow paths and twice as high rates of evapotranspiration, compared to hillslopes with no permafrost. For our simulated cases, 6.7 % of the horizontal water flux moves through the top organic soil layers when there is continuous permafrost, while only 0.5 % moves through organic layers without permafrost. The deeper flow paths in permafrost‐free simulations buffer seasonal temperature extremes, so that summer groundwater discharge temperatures are highest with continuous permafrost. Our results suggest that permafrost thawing alters groundwater flow paths and can lead to decreases in summer stream temperatures and reductions in evapotranspiration in headwater catchments. These changes are of potential importance for stream biotic components of ecosystems, however, the full impact remains unknown.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Design and methods of the Southeast Stream Quality Assessment (SESQA), 2014

During 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) assessed stream quality across the Piedmont and southern Appalachian Mountain regions of the southeastern United States. This Southeast Stream Quality Assessment (SESQA) simultaneously characterized watershed and stream-reach water-quality stressors along with instream biological conditions, in order to better understand regional stressor-effects relations. The goal of SESQA is to provide communities and policymakers with information about those human and environmental factors that have the greatest impact on stream quality across the region. The SESQA design focused on hydrologic alteration and urbanization because of their importance as ecological stressors of particular concern to Southeast region resource managers. Streamflow and land-use data were used to identify and select sites representing gradients in urbanization and streamflow alteration across the region. One hundred fifteen sites were selected and sampled for as many as 10 weeks during April, May, and June 2014 for contaminants, nutrients, and sediment. This water-quality “index” period culminated with an ecological survey of habitat, periphyton, benthic macroinvertebrates, and fish at all sites. Sediment was collected during the ecological survey for analysis of sediment chemistry and toxicity testing. Of the 115 sites, 59 were on streams in watersheds with varying degrees of urban land use, 5 were on streams with multiple confined animal feeding operations, and 13 were reference sites with little or no development in their watersheds. The remaining 38 “hydro” sites were on streams in watersheds with relatively little agricultural or urban development but with hydrologic alteration, such as a dam or reservoir. This report provides a detailed description of the SESQA study components, including surveys of ecological conditions, routine water sampling, deployment of passive polar organic compound integrative samplers for pesticides and contaminants of emerging concern, and synoptic sediment sampling and toxicity testing at all urban, confined animal feeding operation, and reference sites. Continuous water-quality monitoring and daily pesticide sampling efforts conducted at a subset of urban sites are also described.

Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, ↗

USGS2012

Ground water and climate change

As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

Nature Climate Change↗

USGS2012

Simulation of groundwater and surface-water resources and evaluation of water-management alternatives for the Chamokane Creek basin, Stevens County, Washington

A three-dimensional, transient numerical model of groundwater and surface-water flow was constructed for Chamokane Creek basin to better understand the groundwater-flow system and its relation to surface-water resources. The model described in this report can be used as a tool by water-management agencies and other stakeholders to quantitatively evaluate the effects of potential increases in groundwater pumping on groundwater and surface-water resources in the basin. The Chamokane Creek model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) integrated model, GSFLOW. GSFLOW was developed to simulate coupled groundwater and surface-water resources. The model uses 1,000-foot grid cells that subdivide the model domain by 102 rows and 106 columns. Six hydrogeologic units in the model are represented using eight model layers. Daily precipitation and temperature were spatially distributed and subsequent groundwater recharge was computed within GSFLOW. Streamflows in Chamokane Creek and its major tributaries are simulated in the model by routing streamflow within a stream network that is coupled to the groundwater-flow system. Groundwater pumpage and surface-water diversions and returns specified in the model were derived from monthly and annual pumpage values previously estimated from another component of this study and new data reported by study partners. The model simulation period is water years 1980-2010 (October 1, 1979, to September 30, 2010), but the model was calibrated to the transient conditions for water years 1999-2010 (October 1, 1998, to September 30, 2010). Calibration was completed by using traditional trial-and-error methods and automated parameter-estimation techniques. The model adequately reproduces the measured time-series groundwater levels and daily streamflows. At well observation points, the mean difference between simulated and measured hydraulic heads is 7 feet with a root-mean-square error divided by the total difference in water levels of 4.7 percent. Simulated streamflow was compared to measured streamflow at the USGS streamflow-gaging station-Chamokane Creek below Falls, near Long Lake (12433200). Annual differences between measured and simulated streamflow for the site ranged from -63 to 22 percent. Calibrated model output includes a 31-year estimate of monthly water budget components for the hydrologic system. Five model applications (scenarios) were completed to obtain a better understanding of the relation between groundwater pumping and surface-water resources. The calibrated transient model was used to evaluate: (1) the connection between the upper- and middle-basin groundwater systems, (2) the effect of surface-water and groundwater uses in the middle basin, (3) the cumulative impacts of claims registry use and permit-exempt wells on Chamokane Creek streamflow, (4) the frequency of regulation due to impacted streamflow, and (5) the levels of domestic and stockwater use that can be regulated. The simulation results indicated that streamflow is affected by existing groundwater pumping in the upper and middle basins. Simulated water-management scenarios show streamflow increased relative to historical conditions as groundwater and surface-water withdrawals decreased.

Washington↗

USGS2019

Freshwater availability in Guam with projected changes in climate

Guam receives 85 to 116 inches of rain a year, two-thirds of which has historically fallen during the wet season. On average, three tropical storms and one typhoon pass within 80 nautical miles of Guam each year, generally during the rainy season. Both drought and flooding can impact freshwater supply and the associated infrastructure. Department of Defense (DoD) installations and non-military populations on Guam share freshwater resources, which will be impacted by changes in demographics, freshwater demand, and climate. This DoD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) funded study evaluated potential climate impacts on freshwater supplies in Guam, and identified methods of increasing the water distribution system’s resilience.

Cooperator Report↗

USGS2010

Estimating salinity intrusion effects due to climate change along the Grand Strand of the South Carolina coast

The ability of water-resource managers to adapt to future climatic change is especially challenging in coastal regions of the world. The East Coast of the United States falls into this category given the high number of people living along the Atlantic seaboard and the added strain on resources as populations continue to increase, particularly in the Southeast. Increased temperatures, changes in regional precipitation regimes, and potential increased sea level would have a great impact on existing hydrological systems in the region. Six reservoirs in North Carolina discharge into the Pee Dee River, which flows 160 miles through South Carolina to the coastal communities near Myrtle Beach, SC. During the Southeast’s record-breaking drought from 1998 to 2002, salinity intrusions inundated a coastal municipal freshwater intake, limiting water supplies. Salinity intrusion results from the interaction of three principal forces - streamflow, mean tidal water levels, and tidal range. To analyze, model, and simulate hydrodynamic behaviors at critical coastal streamgages along the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway (AIW) near Myrtle Beach, SC, data-mining techniques were applied to over 20 years of hourly streamflow, coastal water-quality, and water-level data. Artificial neural network (ANN) models were trained to learn the variable interactions that cause salinity intrusions. Streamflow from the 12,700 square-mile Pee Dee River Basin that flows into the AIW are input to the model as time-delayed variables and accumulated tributary inflows. Tidal inputs to the models were obtained by decomposing tidal water-level data into a “periodic” signal of tidal range and a “chaotic” signal of mean water levels. The ANN models were able to convincingly reproduce historical behaviors and generate alternative scenarios of interest. To evaluate the impact of climate change on salinity intrusion, inputs of streamflows and mean tidal water levels were modified to incorporate estimated changes in precipitation patterns and sea-level rise appropriate for the Southeastern United States. Changes in mean tidal water levels were changed parametrically for various sea-level rise conditions. Preliminary model results at the U.S. Geological Survey Pawleys Island streamgage (station 02110125) near a municipal freshwater intake indicate that a sea-level rise of 1 foot (ft, 30.5 centimeters [cm]) would double the frequency of water with a specific conductance value of 2,000 microsiemens per centimeter close to 4 percent. A 2 ft (61 cm) sea-level rise would quadruple the frequency to 9 percent.

South Carolina↗

USGS2023

Modeling, mapping, and measuring the risk of freshwater invasive species across Alaska

Freshwater ecosystems of the Alaskan Arctic and Subarctic provide resources that are culturally, ecologically, and economically invaluable. Presently, these regions are relatively free of the impacts from invasive species compared to southern latitudes. To date, there have been relatively few verified introductions of aquatic invasive species (AIS) to freshwater ecosystems in Alaska. The expanding list and distribution of AIS has led to significant negative ecological and economic impacts (e.g., waterweed Elodea nuttalli ; E. canadensis and northern pike Esox Lucius introduced outside its native range in Alaska). Escalating human activity across Alaskan lands and waters, coupled with rapidly shifting environmental conditions, increases the potential for new species introductions and subsequent establishment. Creating a proactive framework for well-informed decision-making and action can improve the effectiveness of prevention efforts and bolster decision support tools that help resource managers direct limited resources. Prioritizing AIS that may be introduced and become established, as well as the locations at highest risk of invasion, is foundational to building a proactive invasive species management framework in Alaska. This project sought to identify and prioritize AIS known to be invasive in the contiguous United States, evaluate current and future habitat suitability for AIS in Alaska, and assess potential for AIS to be transported to habitats across Alaska, utilizing similar assessment methods as implemented for Bering Sea marine invasive species and non-native plants in Alaska. To accomplish this goal, the objectives of the project were to: 1) develop a formal ranked list of potential AIS to freshwater systems of Alaska; 2) assess the level of establishment risk for potential AIS by developing habitat suitability models for waterbodies across Alaska; and 3), identify potential pathways and specific vectors for high-risk AIS to invade Alaska and develop a framework for how vector analysis will be completed to understand transport risk. Overall, our goal is horizon scanning which is defined by Roy et al. (2019) as “a systematic examination of potential threats and opportunities, within a given context, and likely future developments, which are at the margin of current thinking and planning.” The scans include pathway analyses and risk screening of species present at pathway origin points, with a focus on identifying species at high risk of being introduced, becoming established, spreading, and causing harm. We refined a list of 28 AIS from a list of hundreds based on characterizations of species’ invasiveness and species’ proximity to Alaska (USGS 2020; GBIF 2022). Next, we evaluated the relative invasiveness of individual species to create an initial AIS ranking. We sought to characterize habitat suitability of AIS by selecting variables that were continental in scale, covering North America to include Alaska as well as the lower 48 states comparing natural discharge, sub-basin average terrain slope (degrees), average silt fraction, average organic carbon, lithological class, and human footprint in sub-basin in 2009. We estimated AIS habitat suitability across the entire state of Alaska using the physiological tolerances of the AIS (Appendix 2). We also evaluated pathways and vectors for the introduction of AIS (Appendix 2). Many pathways and vectors considered did not meet the criteria for Alaska or freshwater systems. Of the 28 ranked species that we categorized as very high, high, and moderate levels of invasiveness; all three risk groups included fish and mollusks (Appendix 2). One commonality of the very high-invasiveness-ranked species was the availability of Ecological Risk Screening Summary documents (USFWS, 2022) produced by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), except for the goldfish ( Carassius auratus ) and the New Zealand mudsnail ( Potamopyrgus antipodarum ). The Ecological Risk Screening Summary is now available for New Zealand mudsnails. In general, fish species often ranked very high or high in invasiveness and included sportfish and aquarium fish, suggesting the importance of pathways such as aquarium trade, fishing industry, intentional (but illegal) introductions of sportfishes and aquarium fishes for establishment. The technique we used for habitat suitability models necessitated aquatic environmental datasets that were continental in scale, which was often interpolated from very coarse resolution source data layers, particularly in Alaska. Better spatial data representing aquatic environments would likely improve this approach. While the lack of introductions in Alaska and nearby provinces and states is encouraging, the lack of occurrence data for the focal species also created complications for habitat suitability modeling. Despite the challenges, the habitat suitability models indicated limited suitability for warmwater species while some species, such as Brook trout (S alvelinus fontinalis ), have high habitat suitability across Alaska no matter what threshold approach is taken. Some environmental predictors were more important than others. Specifically, the most important predictor variable, ‘frost free days,’ was critical for 15 out of 28 species as expected due to harsh winter conditions in Arctic and Subarctic regions. The second most important predictor was ‘subbasin land surface runoff’, a variable that indicates the amount of discharge and runoff, while the third most important predictor was ‘snow cover’ another indication of winter conditions. Overall, the ability to understand the effect of future climate scenarios on the establishment of AIS was challenging. A detailed dataset of freshwater temperatures and water chemistry (e.g., pH, calcium) would greatly improve the ability to predict invasiveness of freshwater species to Alaska’s ecosystems on a regional basis. Future studies may benefit from a more focused geographic scope examining a group of subbasins or a regional basin rather than the entire state. These drainages could be selected based upon the mostly likely locations of introduction pathways. The two most prevalent pathway risks for AIS are in-state transfer and stowaways/contaminants. Although there are examples of introductions from other pathways, the risk is somewhat mitigated by Alaska’s climate and regulations. However, variable application of protocols for inspection and cleaning of fishing gear, watercraft, and other similar items while traveling into Alaska as well as transferring from waterbody to waterbody within the state creates a substantial risk in introducing invasive species. We plot cumulative invasive vulnerability for all subbasins and for the top 10% of subbasins (Appendix 3).

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Decision analysis to support development of the Glen Canyon Dam long-term experimental and management plan

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and Argonne National Laboratory, completed a decision analysis to use in the evaluation of alternatives in the Environmental Impact Statement concerning the long-term management of water releases from Glen Canyon Dam and associated management activities. Two primary decision analysis methods, multicriteria decision analysis and the expected value of information, were used to evaluate the alternative strategies against the resource goals and to evaluate the influence of uncertainty. A total of 18 performance metrics associated with 8 out of 12 resource goals (fundamental objectives) were developed by the Bureau of Reclamation and National Park Service in partnership with subject-matter teams composed of Federal, State, tribal, and private experts. A total of 19 long-term strategies associated with 7 alternatives were developed by the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, Argonne National Laboratory, U.S. Geological Survey, and Cooperating Agencies. The 19 long-term strategies were evaluated against the 18 performance metrics using a series of coupled simulation models, taking into account the effects of several important sources of uncertainty. A total of 27 Federal, State, tribal, and nongovernmental agencies were invited by the Assistant Secretary of Interior to participate in a swing-weighting exercise to understand the range of perspectives about how to place relative value on the resource goals and performance metrics; 14 of the 27 chose to participate. The results of the swing-weighting exercise were combined with the evaluation of the alternatives to complete a multicriteria decision analysis. The effects of uncertainty on the ranking of long-term strategies were evaluated through calculation of the value of information. The alternatives and their long-term strategies differed across performance metrics, producing unavoidable tradeoffs; thus, there was no long-term strategy that was dominated by another across all performance metrics. When the performance of each alternative was weighted across performance metrics, three alternatives (B, D, and G) were top-ranked depending on the set of weights proposed: Alternative B was favored by those stakeholders that placed a high value on hydropower; Alternative G was favored by those stakeholders that placed a high value on the restoration of natural processes, like beachbuilding and natural vegetation; and Alternative D was favored by the remaining stakeholders. Surprisingly, these rankings were not sensitive to the critical uncertainties that were evaluated; that is, the choice of a preferred long-term strategy was sensitive to the value-based judgment about how to place relative weight on the resource goals but was not sensitive to the uncertainties in the system dynamics that were evaluated in this analysis. The one area of uncertainty that did slightly affect the ranking of alternatives was the long-term pattern of hydrological input; because of this sensitivity, some attention to the possible effects of climate change is warranted. The results of the decision analysis are meant to serve as only one of many sources of information that can be used to evaluate the alternatives proposed in the Environmental Impact Statement. These results only focus on those resource goals for which quantitative performance metrics could be formulated and evaluated; there are other important aspects of the resource goals that also need to be considered. Not all the stakeholders who were invited to participate in the decision analysis chose to do so; thus, the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and U.S. Department of Interior may want to consider other input.

Arizona↗

USGS2021

A Next Generation Lunar Orbiter mission

The Moon is the scientific foundation for our knowledge of the early evolution and impact history of the terrestrial planets. Over the last decades the lunar science community has made significant progress in addressing key lunar science and exploration goals, while defining many new high-priority scientific questions regarding the formation and evolution of the Moon. On a broad scale, the last Planetary Decadal Survey defined three scientific objectives to guide studies of the inner planets and Moon. These objectives address the origins and diversity of terrestrial planets, the evolution of life on terrestrial planets, and climate processes on Earth-like planets [1]. Many of these objectives carry forward into exploration goals of a renewed lunar human exploration program, and urgently addressing these objectives will enable the rapid development of exploration plans. A large (Flagship or New Frontiers class) Next Generation Lunar Orbiter (NGLO) mission would address the last Planetary Decadal Survey objective of understanding the origin and diversity of terrestrial planets by studying the geochemistry and geology of the Moon at an unparalleled resolution compared to other lunar mission datasets. Also, NGLO would address the objective of studying the evolution of life on terrestrial planets by furthering knowledge about the composition and distribution of volatile elements on the lunar surface and better characterizing the past and present-day impact rates in the inner Solar System in order to better understand the original delivery of water to Earth. Key exploration goals, including identifying the nature and distribution of lunar volatiles (i.e., water, ice), mapping and characterizing potentially valuable lunar resources, and establishing a human presence on the Moon, also would be addressed by NGLO.

Bulletin of the AAS↗

USGS2006

Bioindicators from Mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis) Sampled from the Imperial Valley in Southern California

The Sonny Bono Salton Sea National Wildlife Refuge (SSNWR) is located 64 km north of the Mexican border at the southern end of the Salton Sea in California's Imperial Valley. Freshwater ponds and managed habitats at the SSNWR, Calipatria, Calif. are supplied with Colorado River water that carries compounds from upstream sources. Components include municipal and industrial discharges, agricultural drainage, and sewage plant inputs. Aquatic animals in these ecosystems are continuously exposed to multiple constituents, several of which have been demonstrated to be associated with hormonal disturbances. We investigated possible endocrine impacts to fish in the Imperial Valley, Calif., by addressing the null hypothesis that aquatic species in impacted sites did not exhibit evidence of endocrine disruption as compared with those from nonimpacted sites. The results presented are intended to provide managers with science-based information and interpretations about the condition of the animals in their ecosystems for the minimization of potential adverse effects to trust fish and wildlife resources and for the maximization of available water resources.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2001

South China Sea

The South China Sea is poorly understood in terms of its marine biota, ecology and the human impacts upon it. What is known is most often contained in reports and workshop and conference documents that are not available to the wider scientific community. The South China Sea has an area of some 3.3 million km 2 and depths range from the shallowest coastal fringe to 5377 m in the Manila Trench. It is also studded with numerous islets, atolls and reefs many of which are just awash at low tide. It is largely confined within the Tropic of Cancer and, therefore, experiences a monsoonal climate being influenced by the Southwest Monsoon in summer and the Northeast Monsoon in winter. The South China Sea is a marginal sea and, therefore, largely surrounded by land. Countries that have a major influence on and claims to the sea include China, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, although Thailand, Indonesia and Taiwan have some too. The coastal fringes of the South China Sea are home to about 270 million people that have had some of the fastest developing and most vibrant economies on the globe. Consequently, anthropogenic impacts, such as over-exploitation of resources and pollution, are anticipated to be huge although, in reality, relatively little is known about them. The Indo-West Pacific biogeographic province, at the centre of which the South China Sea lies, is probably the world's most diverse shallow-water marine area. Of the three major nearshore habitat types, i.e., coral reefs, mangroves and seagrasses, 45 mangrove species out of a global of 51, most of the currently recognised 70 coral genera and 20 of 50 known seagrass species have been recorded from the South China Sea. The island groups of the South China Sea are all disputed and sovereignty is claimed over them by a number of countries. Conflicts have in recent decades arisen over them because of perceived national rights. It is perhaps because of this that so little research has been undertaken on the South China Sea. What data are available, however, and if Hong Kong is used , as it is herein, as an indicator of what the perturbations of other regional cities upon the South China Sea are like, then it is impacted grossly and an ecological disaster has probably already, but unknowingly, happened.

Marine Pollution Bulletin↗