SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

1,666 records · Page 23Linked to original sources

USGS2026

Geologic map of pre-Middle Jurassic basement rocks beneath the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains in Florida

Much of the southeastern United States, including all of Florida, is covered by flat-lying sedimentary strata of the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains which have accumulated since Middle Jurassic time. The pre-Middle Jurassic rocks that underlie these coastal plains in Florida, here collectively referred to as “basement,” are known only from a relatively small number of boreholes. This scientific investigations map presents an interpretation of the basement geology in a 1:1,000,000-scale subsurface geologic map with supporting text, data, and figures. The subsurface mapping methodology integrates petrographic, geochronological, thermochronological, geochemical, and mineralogical analyses of drill cores and cuttings in the context of regional geophysical data. The pre-Middle Jurassic rocks of Florida consist of the Gondwanan (West African) Suwannee terrane which was accreted to Laurentia during the Alleghanian orogeny and subsequently intruded by Permian granites, superposed by early Mesozoic rift basins, and partially overlain by bimodal Jurassic volcanic rocks. The younger basement components, specifically the Southwest Florida volcanic province, North Florida tholeiites, early Mesozoic rift basins, and Alleghanian granitoids, have correlative and contemporaneous units throughout the Appalachian orogen. In contrast, Florida’s older basement rocks, including Paleozoic siliciclastic strata of the Suwannee basin, North Florida volcanic series, Osceola and Gaskin intrusive complexes, and the St. Lucie Metamorphic Complex, have neither surface exposures nor unequivocal correlates. Major structures include early Mesozoic normal faults and northwest-striking transfer zones such as the Jay fault. Many of these faults define the boundaries of subbasins within the South Georgia rift system. Top-of-basement structure contours show gentle arches and embayments that are also recognized in overlying coastal plain strata.

Florida↗

USGS2025

An exploration of the relative influence of physical models for Omori’s law

Omori’s law states that the rate of aftershocks decays as a function of inverse time. There are multiple physical explanations that we reduce into a nonlinear mixed effects relation of three terms: (1) a Rate/State expression that can account for static/dynamic and viscoelastic triggering caused directly by the mainshock, (2) a fluid diffusion triggering term, and (3) a randomized secondary triggering (cascade) term. We fit free physical-model parameters to an observed aftershock sequence through two nonlinear regression methods to find the relative contributions of physics-based models in an observed aftershock sequence. Results from both methods show that Rate/State models overpredict aftershock rates by ∼0–30%. Secondary aftershocks cause a net negative contribution (seismicity rate reduction that corrects overprediction by other terms) ranging between ∼0 and 30%. All regression solutions yield negative secondary triggering contributions without being guided to do so. A physical explanation for this is that aftershock occurrence relieves stress from the crust, ultimately causing the sequence to extinguish itself. Fluid diffusion triggering contributions range from ∼0 to 20%. Diffusion processes are observed to be shorter in time than the full duration of an aftershock sequence and they are also spatially limited, diminishing their influence. Our results apply to an aftershock decay curve from the 2016 Central Apennines earthquake sequence, meaning that our specific results may not be general. Our primary conclusion is that any one physical model cannot alone fit the observed sequence as well as the combination of three we investigated.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗

USGS2026

Deep groundwater total dissolved solids mapping in the Dakota Group, Williston Basin, USA

Growing concern about the quantity of available freshwater around the world has led to interest in surveying groundwater total dissolved solids (TDS) below water well depths. Deep TDS has not been systematically mapped, and there is much to learn about the distribution and controls on deeper groundwater. In sedimentary basins across the United States, groundwater resources often overlie hydrocarbon resources, providing an opportunity to use borehole geophysical data collected for hydrocarbons to characterize groundwater and pore space resources. This study adapts a recently developed subsurface geostatistical and geophysical modeling approach to continuously map groundwater TDS, porosity, and temperature in the Dakota Group of the Williston Basin—an undercharacterized regional aquifer system overlying deeper hydrocarbon reservoirs. Groundwater TDS in the Dakota Group ranges from approximately 4800 to 26,900 mg/L. TDS patterns are stratified with higher TDS in the lower and upper Dakota Group, and relatively lower TDS in the middle Dakota Group. The lower TDS in the middle zone may represent a preferential regional flow path for lower-TDS meteoric recharge from the west. The alternating pattern of TDS may also be evidence of higher-TDS inflows into the Dakota Group from underlying and potentially from overlying aquifers. Porosity is lower near the center of the Williston Basin and tends to be higher to the east, which may be related to grain size distributions. The new regional TDS and porosity modeling serves as a quantitative reference for water users and provides supporting evidence for hypotheses on Dakota Group recharge.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2026

Dynamic drainage reorganization in Eastern Tibet: Insights from the Yangtze River first bend

The modern drainage network of eastern Tibet is widely believed to have developed through a series of river capture and flow reversal events; however, the timing and mechanisms driving this reorganization remain contentious. Among these events, the river capture that formed the First Bend of the Yangtze River (YFB) stands out as both iconic and particularly debated. Here we present sedimentary provenance data from the Late Miocene–Quaternary Dali Basin, located south of the YFB, which indicate that a southward-flowing Jinsha River (i.e., the present-day upper Yangtze River) sourced sediment to the Dali basin at ∼7.4–6.4 Ma in a drainage configuration different from that of today. Because this interval postdates the initial establishment of a near-modern Jinsha River system prior to the Miocene, our results imply at least two discrete fluvial reorganizations occurred at the YFB—one preceding ∼7.4 Ma and another following ∼6.4 Ma. By integrating these findings with landscape evolution modeling, we infer that the initiation of rapid uplift of the Yulong-Haba Mountains and the Diancang Shan may have been responsible for these drainage reorganizations. These results underscore that Cenozoic drainage systems on the eastern Tibetan Plateau have evolved dynamically on a short timescale of ∼10 5 –10 6 -year, rather than remaining in a long-term stationary configuration on ∼10 7 -year timescales.

eastern Tibetan Plateau, first bend of the Yangtze↗

USGS2025

Insights and strategic opportunities from the USGS 2024 Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) Interagency Workshop

Introduction In 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published Circular 1490 titled, “Integrated Science for the Study of Perfluoroalkyl and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) in the Environment: A Strategic Science Vision for the U.S. Geological Survey” (Tokranov and others, 2021). Circular 1490 was created to be a resource for USGS scientists prioritizing and planning research related to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and to be a guide for developing partnerships with other scientists, State and Federal agencies, and stakeholders engaged in PFAS research and management and mitigation of the environmental and human-health effects of PFAS. This USGS PFAS Strategic Science Vision document was intended to be the foundation for a “living strategic vision,” periodically providing updates on the state of USGS PFAS research, emerging PFAS data gaps and needs, and progress on interagency and stakeholder PFAS partnerships and priorities. To meet this objective, the USGS planned to host an Interagency and Stakeholder PFAS Workshop every 2–3 years. During September 10–12, 2024, the USGS hosted the first Interagency and Stakeholder PFAS Workshop in Reston, Virginia. The Workshop brought together experts from other Federal agencies (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Food and Drug Administration, Department of Defense [Air Force, Army]), State agencies (Washington Fish and Wildlife, Virginia Department of Transportation), and academia (Harvard University, University of Maryland) to address key challenges relating to the measurement and modeling of PFAS and the implications for environmental health. Participants engaged in in-depth discussions centered around six pivotal topics related to PFAS: (1) sampling protocols, methods and interpretation; (2) environmental sources, source apportionment, and occurrence; (3) environmental fate and transport; (4) human and wildlife exposure routes and risk; (5) bioconcentration, bioaccumulation, and biomagnification; and (6) ecotoxicology and effects. Each topic had three breakout sessions. A recurrent theme of workshop discussions was how data on a nationwide scale for PFAS occurrence in various environmental matrices, including air, water, food crops, biota, soil, and streambed sediment could help to advance scientific understanding. Participants noted significant geospatial data gaps, particularly in the midwestern and southern United States and the Pacific Northwest. PFAS data collection tends to be more robust along the eastern seaboard and in California. Participants stressed how enhancing the integration of large and small datasets across various agencies could help to support national scale understanding of PFAS. To address these gaps, attendees suggested leveraging datasets from Federal entities like the USGS and the U.S. Department of Defense, State agencies, and municipal utility services to develop predictive contaminant detection and transport models. Improved coordination between water quality programs and USGS research could help to facilitate access to valuable data, leading to comprehensive databases that inform PFAS point (wastewater treatment plants and landfills) and nonpoint (runoff from land, atmospheric deposition, food packaging) sources, environmental transport mechanisms, environmental detection and concentrations, potential exposure routes, and health effects on different biota, including humans. A specific request was made to develop a map demarking the depth of modern (1953 or later) groundwater, which is susceptible to surface-derived anthropogenic (that is, human-made) contamination, based on tritium-age dating. Emphasis was placed on incorporation of hydrology, groundwater flow paths, groundwater–surface water interactions, and landscape factors in predictive statistical models as a step to improve contaminant source identification and tracking. Molecular fingerprinting approaches garnered attention as techniques to link specific PFAS mixtures detected in a sample to environmental sources and levels in biota (Dávila-Santiago and others, 2022). Integrating data from abiotic (that is, water, soil, and air) and biotic (that is, living organisms) systems identified as a research opportunity. For example, understanding the composition of soils and sediments, which include a mixture of mineral, plant, and animal components, could advance understanding of exposure pathways. The discussions highlighted opportunities to explore and understand the potential redistribution and biotic exposures of PFAS from biosolid and wastewater treatment plant effluent land application practices, in addition to atmospheric releases and discharges from landfill and wastewater treatment plants. Participants identified research gaps surrounding how these sources may contribute to contamination and may affect surrounding ecosystems, including a better definition of anthropogenic background concentrations. Moving forward, the collection of co-occurrence data was noted as a means to improve understanding of complex mixtures and to leverage companion modeling efforts focused on areas with high and low contamination levels to identify areas of concern and unaffected resources. Participants emphasized how centralized USGS databases and the establishment of sample-metadata archives can help to ensure that samples are preserved and accessible for future research. In conclusion, the workshop participants identified opportunities to bridge data gaps and improve measurement techniques, modeling frameworks, databases, and communication, to enhance the understanding of PFAS and their effects on environmental and human health. Upon completion of the workshop, participants indicated an interest in developing strategic data collection, modeling, and analytical approaches to address these challenges.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2025

Characterizing the scale of regional landslide triggering from storm hydrometeorology

Rainfall strongly affects landslide triggering; however, understanding how storm characteristics relate to the severity of landslides at the regional scale has thus far remained unclear, despite the societal benefits that would result from defining this relationship. As mapped landslide inventories typically cover a small region relative to a storm system, here we develop a dimensionless index for landslide-inducing rainfall, A * , based on extremes of modeled soil water relative to its local climatology. We calibrate A * using four landslide inventories, comprising over 11 000 individual landslides over four unique storm events, and find that a common threshold can be applied to estimate regional shallow-landslide-triggering potential across diverse climatic regimes in California (USA). We then use the spatial distribution of A * , along with topography, to calculate the landslide potential area (LPA) for nine landslide-inducing storm events over the past 20 years, and we test whether atmospheric metrics describing the strength of landfalling storms, such as integrated water vapor transport, correlate with the magnitude of hazardous landslide-inducing rainfall. We find that although the events with the largest LPA do occur during exceptional atmospheric river (AR) storms, the strength of landfalling atmospheric rivers does not scale neatly with landslide potential area, and even exceptionally strong ARs may yield minimal landslide impacts. Other factors, such as antecedent soil moisture driven by storm frequency and mesoscale precipitation features within storms, are instead more likely to dictate the patterns of landslide-generating rainfall throughout the state.

California↗

USGS2025

A high-resolution 3-D P-wave velocity structure of the south-central Cascadia subduction zone from wide-angle shore-crossing seismic refraction data

This study addresses a significant gap in understanding the features of the south-central Cascadia subduction zone, a region characterized by complex geologic, tectonic, and seismic transitions both offshore and onshore. Unlike other segments along this margin, this area lacks a 3-D velocity model to delineate its structural and geological features on a fine scale. To address this void, we developed a high-resolution 3-D P-wave velocity model using active source seismic data from ship-borne seismic shots recorded on temporary and permanent onshore seismic stations and ocean-bottom seismometers. Our model shows velocity variations across the region with distinct velocity-depth profiles for the Siletz, Franciscan, and Klamath terranes in the overlying plate. We identified seaward dipping high-velocity static backstops associated with the Siletz and Klamath terranes, situated near the shoreline and further inland, respectively. Regions of reduced crustal velocity are associated with crustal faults. Moreover, there is significant along-strike depth variation in the subducting slab, which is about 4 km deeper near the thick, dense Siletz terrane and becomes shallower near the predominantly less-dense Franciscan terrane. This highlights a sudden tectonic and geologic transition at the southern boundary of the Siletz terrane. Our velocity model also indicates slightly increased hydration, though still minimal, in both the oceanic crust and the upper mantle of the subducting plate compared to other parts of the margin.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2026

Multi-site evaluation of a postfire debris-flow runout forecast method

Postfire debris flows pose a hazard to human life, property, and infrastructure when they travel from steep source areas to urbanized alluvial fans or other developed areas. Existing methods for rapid (<1 week) postfire debris-flow hazard assessment document the increase in the likelihood and size of debris flows as the magnitude of high-intensity rain necessary to initiate debris flows increases but do not indicate the extent of downstream debris-flow runout. Although many models for the simulation of debris-flow motion are available, there is no established approach for using these models to delineate locations susceptible to postfire debris-flow runout that (a) is feasible to use at the spatial scale of an entire fire; (b) is appropriate for runout onto unconfined areas; (c) reproduces observed relations between runout and rainfall intensity; and (d) characterizes inherent uncertainty in runout, even without spatiotemporally variable rainfall. We propose and evaluate a method for generating postfire debris-flow runout hazard maps that has all the above qualities. Selection of case studies prioritized events triggered by a range of rainfall intensities, locations within and outside of southern California, and observed runout onto unconfined topography. Qualitative and quantitative assessment of performance for four events indicate that simulation results broadly match observations albeit with some discrepancies at a scale larger than structure or land parcel level (approximately 20-m by 20-m). The method may be used to identify potentially hazardous areas immediately following a fire and to provide approximate runout forecasts when a storm is imminent.

Arizona, California↗

USGS2025

False positives in the identification of dynamic earthquake triggering

Dynamic earthquake triggering is commonly identified through the temporal correlation between increased seismicity rates and global earthquakes that are possible triggering events. However, correlation does not imply causation. False positives may occur when unrelated seismicity rate changes coincidently occur at around the time of candidate triggers. We investigate the expected false positive rate in Southern California with global M ≥ 6 earthquakes as candidate triggers. We compute the false positive rate by applying the statistical tests used by DeSalvio and Fan (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487 to synthetic earthquake catalogs with no real dynamic triggering. We find a false positive rate of ∼3.5%–8.5% when realistic earthquake clustering is present, consistent with the 95% confidence typically used in seismology. However, when this false positive rate is applied to the tens of thousands of spatial-temporal windows in Southern California tested in DeSalvio and Fan (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487 , thousands of false positives are expected. The expected false positive occurrence is large enough to explain the observed apparent triggering following 70% of large global earthquakes (DeSalvio & Fan, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487 ), without requiring any true dynamic triggering. Aside from the known triggering from the nearby El Mayor-Cucapah, Mexico, earthquake, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the reported triggering are indistinguishable from random false positives. This implies that best practice for dynamic triggering studies that depend on temporal correlation is to estimate the false positive rate and investigate whether the observed apparent triggering is distinguishable from the correlations that may occur by chance.

JGR Solid Earth↗

USGS2026

Hazard potential of compound flooding from rainfall, storm surge, and groundwater in coastal New York and Connecticut

Compound flood events, the co-occurrence of multiple flood drivers, can result in flood hazard potential exceeding that of any single driver alone. To evaluate compound flooding in a semi-urbanized coastal area, historical records dating back to 1970 are used to study the co-occurrences of high precipitation, storm surge, and shallow groundwater conditions along the coastlines of New York and Connecticut. Joint return periods for coincident precipitation-surge events were computed using statistical dependence models and compared to the assumption of independence as a ratio, referred to here as a return period adjustment. Results indicate distinct seasonality where compound events in the area disproportionately occur in the cold season between October and April. Return period adjustments range from a factor of 1 to almost 9, demonstrating the range in precipitation-storm surge dependence across the study area. Across all 24 station triad locations, groundwater levels were elevated during times of precipitation- surge co-occurrence, reflecting the tendency for coastal storms and shallow groundwater conditions to co-occur seasonally. The result is a pseudo-trivariate compound flood hazard score and corresponding hazard map that integrates dependence between daily precipitation-surge events and overall monthly groundwater levels (as a precondition) into a relative compound hazard score. The location with the highest compound flood hazard score is on the south shore of Long Island, as well as locations across coastal Connecticut where groundwater levels compound the co-occurrence of heavy precipitation and storm surge.

Connecticut, New York↗

USGS2025

To heal or not to heal?: 1. The effect of pore fluid pressure on the frictional healing behavior of lithologies in Oklahoma

The competition between fault healing (i.e., re-strengthening) and fault loading determines the timing and magnitude of fault failure within the seismic cycle. Repeating earthquakes can give observational estimates of fault healing rates, however, it is difficult to link laboratory studies of frictional healing and observed healing rates from repeating earthquakes in part because of uncertainty in lithology at depth. Due to well-constrained and relatively simple geology, earthquakes in Oklahoma can be linked to the granitic basement rock and to the Arbuckle Group, which is primarily composed of dolomite at earthquake depths. Here, we conduct friction experiments to measure healing rates of the two earthquake-bearing lithologies at confining pressures representative of earthquake depths and pore pressures ranging from 0% to 80% of the confining pressure. We measure frictional healing by executing slide-hold-slide tests with hold times ranging from 3 s to 3000 s. The friction experiments on the Troy Granite indicate that pore fluid pressure does not greatly affect healing rate. On the other hand, the dolomite of the Arbuckle Group exhibits decreased healing with increased pore fluid pressure, with weakening at the highest pore pressure. We hypothesize that this is due to an increase in dissolution of dolomite at high pore pressures/low effective normal stress. These healing rates are used in the companion paper to understand the moment-recurrence time behavior of repeating earthquakes in Prague, Oklahoma. This work has implications for possible enhanced dissolution and weakening behavior of the Arbuckle Group during wastewater injection activities.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2024

The dominance and growth of shallow groundwater resources in continuous permafrost environments

Water is a limited resource in Arctic watersheds with continuous permafrost because freezing conditions in winter and the impermeability of permafrost limit storage and connectivity between surface water and deep groundwater. However, groundwater can still be an important source of surface water in such settings, feeding springs and large aufeis fields that are abundant in cold regions and generating runoff when precipitation is rare. Whether groundwater is sourced from suprapermafrost taliks or deeper regional aquifers will impact water availability as the Arctic continues to warm and thaw. Previous research is ambiguous about the role of deep groundwater, leading to uncertainty regarding Arctic water availability and changing water resources. We analyzed chemistry and residence times of spring, stream, and river waters in the continuous permafrost zone of Alaska, spanning the mountains to the coastal plain. Water chemistry and age tracers show that surface waters are predominately sourced from recent precipitation and have short (<50 y) subsurface residence times. Remote sensing indicates trends in the areal extent of aufeis over the last 37 y, and correlations between aufeis extent and previous year summer temperature. Together, these data indicate that surface waters in continuous permafrost regions may be impacted by short flow paths and shallow suprapermafrost aquifers that are highly sensitive to climatic and hydrologic change over annual timescales. Despite the lack of connection to regional aquifers, continued warming and permafrost thaw may promote deepening of the shallow subsurface aquifers and creation of shallow taliks, providing some resilience to Arctic freshwater ecosystems.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS2026

From collision to subduction: Thermal-kinematic inversions constrain plate boundary structure and dip-slip activity in southwestern New Zealand

Constraints on three-dimensional fault system geometry and kinematics are required to understand both long-term tectonics and contemporary seismic hazard. In many cases, these parameters must be inferred from a combination of different data or analyses. Here, we invert low-temperature thermochronological data to quantitatively parameterize both the crustal-scale geometry and late Cenozoic dip-slip activity of the plate boundary system in southwest New Zealand. We find that the modern transpressive plate boundary system has accommodated the bulk of Australian-Pacific Plate convergence since establishment in the middle Miocene-early Pliocene. Shortening has occurred via (a) dextral-reverse slip on the moderate angle, listric central Alpine Fault décollement, and (b) reverse-slip on either the sharply curved, anti-listric northern Puysegur subduction interface or low-angle offshore thrust fault system that splays from the high-angle southern Alpine Fault at depth. We resolve late Cenozoic shortening rates on these structures that are indistinguishable, and interpret these to reflect the transfer of convergent deformation outboard of the predominantly strike-slip southern Alpine Fault. Our work helps elucidate the transition from strain localized oblique continental collision to strain partitioned subduction. We also provide an estimate of the across-strike width of the central-southern Alpine Fault section boundary at seismogenic depths. This is the first quantitative constraint on the geometry of a structural feature inferred to have arrested several major prehistoric earthquakes. This study furthers understanding of fault structure and dip-slip kinematics along the greatest sources of seismic hazard in and offshore of southwest New Zealand.

South Island↗

USGS2025

Relationship of atmospheric nitrogen deposition to soil nitrogen cycling along an elevation gradient in the Colorado Front Range

Microbial processing of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition regulates the retention and mobilization of N in soils, with important implications for water quality. Understanding the links between N deposition, microbial communities, N transformations, and water quality is critical as N deposition shifts toward reduced N and remains persistently high in many regions. Here, we investigated these connections along an elevation transect in the Colorado Front Range. Although rates of N deposition and pools of extractable N increased down the elevation transect, soil microbial communities and N transformation rates did not follow clear elevational patterns. The subalpine microbial community was distinct, corresponding to a high C:N ratio and low pH, while the microbial communities at the lower elevation sites were all very similar. Net nitrification, mineralization, and nitrification potential rates were highest at the Plains (1,700 m) and Montane (2,527 m) sites, suggesting that these ecosystems mobilize N. In contrast, the net immobilization of N observed at the Foothills (1,978 m) and Subalpine (3,015 m) sites suggests that these ecosystems retain N deposition. The contrast in N transformation rates between the plains and foothills, both of which receive elevated N deposition, may be due to spatial heterogeneity not captured in this study and warrants further investigation. Stream N concentrations from the subalpine to the foothills were consistently low, indicating that these soils are currently able to process and retain N deposition, but this may be disrupted if drought, wildfire, or land-use change alter the ability of the soils to retain N.

Colorado↗

USGS2024

Seismicity zoning at Coso geothermal field and stress changes from fluid production and migration

The Coso geothermal field is a major geothermal power production site in the western United States. It has been observed that low-magnitude seismic events ( M < 3.71) are unevenly distributed in three distinct zones, namely, nearfield (<3 km), midfield (3–6 km), and farfield (> 6 km) from the Coso geothermal plant. These zones exhibit distinct changes in earthquake location before and during geothermal production episodes that began in 1986. After 1986, the midfield region of the main flank experiences a significantly lower seismicity rate than the surrounding areas before production episodes. During 2014–2019, the farfield earthquakes cluster in the eastern and western parts of the greater Coso area, which is discernably different from how those pre-production earthquake events were distributed along the conjugate NW-SE and SW-NW trending structures across the main flank. Here, we analyze the stage of stress with finite-element-based poroelastic simulations to illustrate how the spatiotemporal evolution of the seismicity is associated with the pattern of stress perturbations caused by fluid migration amid the operations of geothermal power plants. Generally, ∼70% of co-production seismicity is found in zones of increased Coulomb stress between 2014 and 2019 at >99% confidence. Meanwhile, the midfield zone of seismic paucity overlaps with the zone of decreasing pore-fluid pressure. Overall, the results provide a physical explanation of how decadal geothermal operations at Coso have perturbed stress-field changes and contributed to the evolving characteristic seismic pattern, shedding insights into assessing the seismic hazard in other geothermal settings.

California↗

USGS2025

Do Graviquakes exist?

The “Graviquake” model, proposed in 2015 as an alternative to the elastic dislocation model, posits that normal faults are passive features dominated by coseismic gravitational collapse into a dilated crustal wedge, and that normal faulting is fundamentally distinct from strike‐slip and reverse faulting. Developed using finite‐element modeling before the 2016 central Apennines earthquake sequence, the model was revamped based on interpreted Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data from these events and used as evidence for a gravitational collapse episode. However, this interpretation relies on miscalculated elevation changes and is not corroborated by independent geophysical and seismological observations. Our analysis exposes fundamental flaws in the Graviquake model. By assuming that faults are passive players, it underrepresents the dynamic role of strain accumulation and release in rocks adjacent to faults. The hypothesized rapid expulsion of overpressurized fluids appears inconsistent with observed diffusion rates and lacks supporting seismological evidence. Part of the uplifted–subsided volume imbalance is likely an artifact arising from data processing, and in part is a transient effect due to the delayed response of the lower crust. Moment tensor analyses detect no isotropic components indicative of gravitational collapse, and observed ground motion and stress‐drop levels remain fully consistent with elastic dislocation theory. In addition, finite‐element modeling of normal faulting replicates observed surface deformation without invoking a collapsing wedge. The Graviquake model proposes a representation of normal‐faulting mechanics that differs significantly from established models and observations. Gravity does play a role in normal faulting, but the elastic dislocation theory remains the definitive framework of fault mechanics. Reinterpreting the 2016 earthquakes as a cascade of gravitational episodes, based on incorrect data processing and modeling, fails to substantiate the Graviquake hypothesis. Persistence in advocating this model could mislead seismic hazard assessment and undermine our understanding of normal faulting.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2026

Widespread landslide activity in an extreme wet season and implications for regional sediment management, eastern San Francisco Bay area, California

Watershed sediment production is expected to increase in a warmer future with more extreme rain, with cascading effects throughout drainage and sediment-transport networks. This study investigated landscape-scale sediment movement in the eastern San Francisco Bay area, California, USA, during the extreme 2016–2017 wet season that brought major rainfall, landslides, and flooding. Mapping 8,928 landslides across a 1,050-km 2 study area revealed new sediment yield of 510–956 t/km 2 , equivalent to denudation of 193–361 mm/ky. These results correspond closely to long-term denudation rates in the northern and central California Coast Ranges, indicating that mass wasting in very wet years dominates long-term sediment mobilization. However, due to long residence times in drainage networks, the 2017 landslides contributed at most ∼1%–2% of the estimated locally derived fluvial sediment transport to San Francisco Bay. Although the amount of sediment mobilized did not threaten municipal water supplies, small rangeland impoundments in this mixed-use landscape lost storage capacity to new sedimentation. Considering regional sediment supply and demand, even the exceptionally large sediment delivery in an extreme wet year cannot meet the need for sediment to accrete tidal wetlands in the bay. To keep pace with rising sea levels, this abnormally high terrestrial sediment input would need to occur in 50 of the next 75 years, an unlikely occurrence due to the prevalence of recent drought years. Shoreline protection and restoration in the bay would need additional sources of sediment, such as through management of dredged sediment through beneficial-reuse programs.

California↗

USGS2026

Patterns and drivers of cliff erosion in Big Sur, California, USA using repeat photogrammetry, 2017–2023

Seacliff erosion in steep terrain poses major risks to transportation and critical infrastructure. In Big Sur, California, USA, seacliff erosion threatens the sustainability of the central coast stretch of California State Route 1, a transportation corridor that is critical to the region's economy. Published cliff retreat rates for the region range from 1 to 40 cm yr −1 , highlighting that high-resolution, process-based studies could enhance understanding of the causes of spatial and temporal variability. We quantified cliff erosion and investigated its drivers along ∼13 km of the Big Sur coastline at week–month timescales during the late fall to early spring wet seasons between January 2017 and June 2023 by analyzing 3D point clouds developed from aerial imagery using four-dimensional structure-from-motion (4D SfM) photogrammetry techniques. We calculated cliff face retreat rates of 2.23 ± 3.06 cm yr −1 (mean ±1 σ ), an order of magnitude lower than long-term estimated rates for the region (which included large deep-seated landslides), but in line with short-term rates reported across California. Change detection imagery comparison, cliff profiles through time, and statistical analysis reveal a cyclical cliff evolution process in which erosion by wave action at the cliff base destabilizes the cliff and primes it for subsequent failure during precipitation events. Although more erosion by volume could be attributed to precipitation-induced increases in soil moisture (784 m 3 km −1 yr −1 ) compared with erosion attributed to wave power (282 m 3 km −1 yr −1 ), our observations underscore the coupled nature of these processes in driving cliff evolution, consistent with established theory and observations.

California↗