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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 415 records · Page 23Linked to original sources

USGS2022

Causality guided machine learning model on wetland CH4 emissions across global wetlands

Wetland CH 4 emissions are among the most uncertain components of the global CH 4 budget. The complex nature of wetland CH 4 processes makes it challenging to identify causal relationships for improving our understanding and predictability of CH 4 emissions. In this study, we used the flux measurements of CH 4 from eddy covariance towers (30 sites from 4 wetlands types: bog, fen, marsh, and wet tundra) to construct a causality-constrained machine learning (ML) framework to explain the regulative factors and to capture CH 4 emissions at sub-seasonal scale. We found that soil temperature is the dominant factor for CH 4 emissions in all studied wetland types. Ecosystem respiration (CO 2 ) and gross primary productivity exert controls at bog, fen, and marsh sites with lagged responses of days to weeks. Integrating these asynchronous environmental and biological causal relationships in predictive models significantly improved model performance. More importantly, modeled CH 4 emissions differed by up to a factor of 4 under a +1°C warming scenario when causality constraints were considered. These results highlight the significant role of causality in modeling wetland CH 4 emissions especially under future warming conditions, while traditional data-driven ML models may reproduce observations for the wrong reasons. Our proposed causality-guided model could benefit predictive modeling, large-scale upscaling, data gap-filling, and surrogate modeling of wetland CH 4 emissions within earth system land models.

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology↗

USGS1977

Landsat data availability from the EROS Data Center and status of future plans

The Department of Interior's EROS Data Center, managed by the U.S. Geological Survey, was established in 1972, in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, to serve as a principal dissemination facility for Landsat and other remotely Sensed data. Through the middle of 1977, the Center has supplied approximately 1.7 million copies of images from the more than 5 million images of the Earth's surface archived at the Center. Landsat accounted for half of these images plus approximately 5,800 computer-compatible tapes of Landsat data were also supplied to users. New methods for processing data products to make them more useful are being developed, and new accession aids for determining data availability are being placed in operation. The Center also provides assistance and training to resource specialists and land managers in the use of Landsat and other remotely sensed data. A Data Analysis Laboratory is operated at the Center to provide both digital and analog multispectral/multitemporal image analysis capabilities in support of the training and assistance programs. In addition to conventionally processed data products, radiometrically enhanced Landsat imagery are now available from the Center in limited quantities. In mid-1978, the Center will convert to an all-digital processing system for Landsat data that will provide improved products for user analysis in production quantities. The Department of Interior and NASA are currently studying concepts that use communication satellites to relay Landsat data between U.S. ground stations, Goddard Space Flight Center and the EROS Data Center which would improve the timeliness of data availability. The Data Center also works closely with the remote sensing programs and Landsat data receiving and processing facilities being developed in foreign countries.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1967

Volcanic hazards at Mount Rainier, Washington

Mount Rainier is a large stratovolcano of andesitic rock in the Cascade Range of western Washington. Although the volcano as it now stands was almost completely formed before the last major glaciation, geologic formations record a variety of events that have occurred at the volcano in postglacial time. Repetition of some of these events today without warning would result in property damage and loss of life on a catastrophic scale. It is appropriate, therefore, to examine the extent, frequency, and apparent origin of these phenomena and to attempt to predict the effects on man of similar events in the future. The present report was prompted by a contrast that we noted during a study of surficial geologic deposits in Mount Rainier National Park, between the present tranquil landscape adjacent to the volcano and the violent events that shaped parts of that same landscape in the recent past. Natural catastrophes that have geologic causes - such as eruptions, landslides, earthquakes, and floods - all too often are disastrous primarily because man has not understood and made allowance for the geologic environment he occupies. Assessment of the potential hazards of a volcanic environment is especially difficult, for prediction of the time and kind of volcanic activity is still an imperfect art, even at active volcanoes whose behavior has been closely observed for many years. Qualified predictions, however, can be used to plan ways in which hazards to life and property can be minimized. The prediction of eruptions is handicapped because volcanism results from conditions far beneath the surface of the earth, where the causative factors cannot be seen and, for the most part, cannot be measured. Consequently, long-range predictions at Mount Rainier can be based only on the past behavior of the volcano, as revealed by study of the deposits that resulted from previous eruptions. Predictions of this sort, of course, cannot be specific as to time and locale of future events, and clearly are valid only if the past behavior is, as we believe, a reliable guide. The purpose of this report is to infer the events recorded by certain postglacial deposits at Mount Rainier and to suggest what bearing similar events in the future might have on land use within and near the park. In addition, table 2 (page 22) gives possible warning signs of an impending eruption. We want to increase man's understanding of a possibly hazardous geologic environment around Mount Rainier volcano, yet we do not wish to imply for certain that the hazards described are either immediate or inevitable. However, we do believe that hazards exist, that some caution is warranted, and that some major hazards can be avoided by judicious planning. Most of the events with which we are concerned are sporadic phenomena that have resulted directly or indirectly from volcanic eruptions. Although no eruptions (other than steam emission) of the volcano in historic time are unequivocally known (Hopson and others, 1962), pyroclastic (air-laid) deposits of pumice and rock debris attest to repeated, widely spaced eruptions during the 10,000 years or so of postglacial time. In addition, the constituents of some debris flows indicate an origin during eruptions of molten rock; other debris flows, because of their large size and constituents, are believed to have been caused by steam explosions. Some debris flows, however, are not related to volcanism at all.

Washington↗

USGS2008

Improved tests reveal that the accelarating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant

We test the hypothesis that accelerating moment release (AMR) is a precursor to large earthquakes, using data from California, Nevada, and Sumatra. Spurious cases of AMR can arise from data fitting because the time period, area, and sometimes magnitude range analyzed before each main shock are often optimized to produce the strongest AMR signal. Optimizing the search criteria can identify apparent AMR even if no robust signal exists. For both 1950-2006 California-Nevada M ??? 6.5 earthquakes and the 2004 M9.3 Sumatra earthquake, we can find two contradictory patterns in the pre-main shock earthquakes by data fitting: AMR and decelerating moment release. We compare the apparent AMR found in the real data to the apparent AMR found in four types of synthetic catalogs with no inherent AMR. When spatiotemporal clustering is included in the simulations, similar AMR signals are found by data fitting in both the real and synthetic data sets even though the synthetic data sets contain no real AMR. These tests demonstrate that apparent AMR may arise from a combination of data fitting and normal foreshock and aftershock activity. In principle, data-fitting artifacts could be avoided if the free parameters were determined from scaling relationships between the duration and spatial extent of the AMR pattern and the magnitude of the earthquake that follows it. However, we demonstrate that previously proposed scaling relationships are unstable, statistical artifacts caused by the use of a minimum magnitude for the earthquake catalog that scales with the main shock magnitude. Some recent AMR studies have used spatial regions based on hypothetical stress loading patterns, rather than circles, to select the data. We show that previous tests were biased and that unbiased tests do not find this change to the method to be an improvement. The use of declustered catalogs has also been proposed to eliminate the effect of clustering but we demonstrate that this does not increase the statistical significance of AMR. Given the ease with which data fitting can find desired patterns in seismicity, future studies of AMR-like observations must include complete tests against synthetic catalogs that include spatiotemporal clustering.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2020

The induced Mw 5.0 March 2020 west Texas seismic sequence

On March 26, 2020, a M 5.0 earthquake occurred in the Delaware Basin, Texas, near the border between Reeves and Culberson Counties. This was the third largest earthquake recorded in Texas and the largest earthquake in the Central and Eastern United States since the three M 5.0–5.8 induced events in Oklahoma during 2016. Using multistation waveform template matching, we detect 3,940 earthquakes in the sequence with the first event in the area occurring in May 2018. The M 5.0 earthquake sequence occurred on a ENE (∼082°) normal fault dipping ∼37° toward the south. The earthquake caused 6 mm of oblique surface deformation, and geodetic slip inversion suggests slip was isolated above 6 km depth. We find that the sequence was most likely induced by nearby wastewater disposal operations, and seismicity rates in the region surrounding the M 5.0 will likely continue to increase in the future if disposal operations continue unaltered.

Texas↗

USGS2025

The National Park Service stratotype inventory

Introduction An Inventory of Stratigraphic Origins within the National Park Service The geologic history of Earth is recorded in layers or bodies of rock that are classified in a hierarchical order with several different categories of geologic units, including: supergroup, group, formation, member, bed, supersuite, suite, or complex. Geologists analyze and classify rock types based on properties that include lithology, texture, thickness, sedimentary structures, fossils, geographic or geospatial distribution, and age. In instances where new geologic units are proposed, a stratotype is assigned to a designated section, locality, or area of well-exposed rock that displays diagnostic characteristics for identification and correlation. Stratotypes are also namesakes, in that formally recognized rock units are named for the places where they were first described, measured, and mapped. Thus, a vast majority of the stratigraphic nomenclature alludes to geographic or geologic features. Some particularly recognizable examples (and their stratotype assignments) include the Paleoproterozoic Vishnu Schist (Vishnu Canyon in Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona), the Early Cambrian Harpers Formation (Harpers Ferry National Historical Park, West Virginia), and the Late Cretaceous Whitney Granodiorite (Mount Whitney in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, California). Beginning in 2020, the National Park Service (NPS) began a systematic effort to document the occurrence of stratotypes exposed within, partially within, and near NPS administrative boundaries. The NPS stratotype inventory project represents an important component of a geologic resource inventory, as these designations are vital to our national geologic heritage (herein referred to as “geoheritage”) and possess significant scientific, historic, educational, cultural, and aesthetic values. The geoheritage significance of stratotypes is analogous to libraries and museums, in that they are geologic landmarks of Earth history and record the prodigious forces and evolving life forms that define our understanding of the planet. These designated exposures preserve knowledge, represent comparative geologic references where previous observations can be re-examined or reinterpreted, and can serve as valuable educational tools for future geoscientists (Brocx and others, 2019). The NPS stratotype inventory includes the following: Documentation of designated stratotype exposures to confirm their geospatial occurrence within, partially within, and near NPS administrative boundaries, compiled from published reports and maps; Compilation and visualization of the precise geographic locations of the stratotype exposures; and Recommendations that address potential land and resource management issues associated with NPS stratotypes. By achieving these goals, this project helps to raise awareness of stratotypes as a geologic resource by educating NPS staff and the public so that they may better understand, recognize, and protect these important park resources. The focused approach adopted for conducting the stratotype inventories throughout the NPS has centered on the 32 Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) networks established by the NPS during the late 1990s (for more information on each network, see https://www.nps.gov/im/networks.htm). The I&M networks represent groups or clusters of park units that are based on shared geography and natural resource characteristics. The Greater Yellowstone I&M Network, encompassing Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area, Grand Teton National Park, John D. Rockefeller Jr. Memorial Parkway, and Yellowstone National Park, was used as the pilot network for initiating this stratotype inventory and was first published in November 2020 (Henderson and others, 2020). The 32d and final report on the Northeast Temperate I&M Network was published in October 2022 (Henderson and others, 2022). Currently, the NPS stratotype inventory project has identified more than 700 stratotypes within NPS administrative boundaries.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2010

The CEOS-Land Surface Imaging Constellation Portal for GEOSS: A resource for land surface imaging system information and data access

The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites is an international group that coordinates civil space-borne observations of the Earth, and provides the space component of the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS). The CEOS Virtual Constellations concept was implemented in an effort to engage and coordinate disparate Earth observing programs of CEOS member agencies and ultimately facilitate their contribution in supplying the space-based observations required to satisfy the requirements of the GEOSS. The CEOS initially established Study Teams for four prototype constellations that included precipitation, land surface imaging, ocean surface topography, and atmospheric composition. The basic mission of the Land Surface Imaging (LSI) Constellation [1] is to promote the efficient, effective, and comprehensive collection, distribution, and application of space-acquired image data of the global land surface, especially to meet societal needs of the global population, such as those addressed by the nine Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Societal Benefit Areas (SBAs) of agriculture, biodiversity, climate, disasters, ecosystems, energy, health, water, and weather. The LSI Constellation Portal is the result of an effort to address important goals within the LSI Constellation mission and provide resources to assist in planning for future space missions that might further contribute to meeting those goals.

earthzine, an IEEE online publication↗

USGS2015

End-of-winter snow depth variability on glaciers in Alaska

A quantitative understanding of snow thickness and snow water equivalent (SWE) on glaciers is essential to a wide range of scientific and resource management topics. However, robust SWE estimates are observationally challenging, in part because SWE can vary abruptly over short distances in complex terrain due to interactions between topography and meteorological processes. In spring 2013, we measured snow accumulation on several glaciers around the Gulf of Alaska using both ground- and helicopter-based ground-penetrating radar surveys, complemented by extensive ground truth observations. We found that SWE can be highly variable (40% difference) over short spatial scales (tens to hundreds of meters), especially in the ablation zone where the underlying ice surfaces are typically rough. Elevation provides the dominant basin-scale influence on SWE, with gradients ranging from 115 to 400 mm/100 m. Regionally, total accumulation and the accumulation gradient are strongly controlled by a glacier's distance from the coastal moisture source. Multiple linear regressions, used to calculate distributed SWE fields, show that robust results require adequate sampling of the true distribution of multiple terrain parameters. Final SWE estimates (comparable to winter balances) show reasonable agreement with both the Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model climate data set (9–36% difference) and the U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Benchmark Glaciers (6–36% difference). All the glaciers in our study exhibit substantial sensitivity to changing snow-rain fractions, regardless of their location in a coastal or continental climate. While process-based SWE projections remain elusive, the collection of ground-penetrating radar (GPR)-derived data sets provides a greatly enhanced perspective on the spatial distribution of SWE and will pave the way for future work that may eventually allow such projections.

Alaska↗

USGS2026

Sedimentological and geochemical characterization of lacustrine deposits of the Babouri-Figuil basin, northern Cameroon: Implications for source rocks distribution and petroleum exploration

The West and Central African Rift System (WCARS) refers to the series of Cretaceous rift basins where commercial hydrocarbon accumulations have been discovered. Some of the WCARS frontier basins are currently being investigated to increase our understanding of these basins in light of new commercial discoveries. The present study was performed in the Babouri-Figuil Basin (BFB), which is genetically related to the WCARS and constitutes an area of interest in terms of petroleum prospecting, where the distribution of petroleum source rocks and potential targets for petroleum exploration across the entire basin is poorly understood. For the current study, an integrated facies analysis along with organic and inorganic geochemical techniques were applied to the basin's Cretaceous deposits with the aim of reconstructing the paleodepositional environment, assessing factors that triggered the input of organic matter, and providing a spatial overview of the organic matter accumulation in the basin based on outcrop samples. An alluvial fan-lacustrine-braided river system is inferred from the facies analysis of the stratigraphic sequence consisting of conglomerate, sandstone, siltstone, limestone, marlstone, and claystone. Bulk analysis of organic matter reveals that black shale and massive claystone are the main prospective petroleum source rocks in the basin. Inorganic geochemical analyses reveal the influence of anoxic conditions, moderate to high primary productivity, and low terrigenous inputs in organic matter enrichment. The formations rich in organic matter are predominantly concentrated in the western and eastern parts of the basin which may represent areas with depressions, characterized by high accommodation space. In terms of the regional context of the WCARS rift basins, typical hydrocarbon exploration in the BFB may target basal-conglomerate, sandstone beds situated directly above or/and interbedded with the Lower Cretaceous source rocks, and the Upper Cretaceous sandstone beds. Basement rocks (granite, granodiorite, and gneisses) and oil shale deposits may represent potential unconventional hydrocarbon exploration. The current integrated study provides an insight that should guide future hydrocarbon exploration campaigns in the basin.

Babouri-Figuil basin↗

USGS1997

Late Mesozoic and Cenozoic thermotectonic evolution of the central Brooks Range and adjacent North Slope foreland basin, Alaska: Including fission track results from the Trans-Alaska Crustal Transect (TACT)

Apatite fission track data are used to evaluate the thermal and tectonic history of the central Brooks Range and the North Slope foreland basin in northern Alaska along the northern leg of the Trans-Alaska Crustal Transect (TACT). Fission track analyses of the detrital apatite grains in most sedimentary units resolve the timing of structures and denudation within the Brooks Range, ranging in scale from the entire mountain range to relatively small-scale folds and faults. Interpretation of the results indicates that rocks exposed within the central Brooks Range cooled rapidly from paleotemperatures 110° to 50°C during discrete episodes at ∼ 100±5 Ma, ∼60±4 Ma, and ∼24±3 Ma, probably in response to kilometer-scale denudation. North of the mountain front, rocks in the southern half of the foreland basin were exposed to maximum paleotemperatures 110°C in the Late Cretaceous to early Paleocene as a result of burial by Upper Jurassic and Cretaceous sedimentary rocks. Rapid cooling from these elevated paleotemperatures also occurred due to distinct episodes of kilometer-scale denudation at ∼60±4 Ma, 46±3 Ma, 35±2 Ma, and ∼24±3 Ma. Combined, the apatite analyses indicate that rocks exposed along the TACT line through the central Brooks Range and foreland basin experienced episodic rapid cooling throughout the Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic in response to at least three distinct kilometer-scale denudation events. Future models explaining orogenic events in northern Alaska must consider these new constraints from fission track thermochronology.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2001

Natural gas hydrates; vast resource, uncertain future

Gas hydrates are naturally occurring icelike solids in which water molecules trap gas molecules in a cagelike structure known as a clathrate. Although many gases form hydrates in nature, methane hydrate is by far the most common; methane is the most abundant natural gas. The volume of carbon contained in methane hydrates worldwide is estimated to be twice the amount contained in all fossil fuels on Earth, including coal.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2024

Mass-balance-consistent geological stock accounting: A new approach toward sustainable management of mineral resources

Global resource extraction raises concerns about environmental pressures and the security of mineral supply. Strategies to address these concerns depend on robust information on natural resource endowments, and on suitable methods to monitor and model their changes over time. However, current mineral resources and reserves reporting and accounting workflows are poorly suited for addressing mineral depletion or answering questions about the long-term sustainable supply. Our integrative review finds that the lack of a robust theoretical concept and framework for mass-balance (MB)-consistent geological stock accounting hinders systematic industry-government data integration, resource governance, and strategy development. We evaluate the existing literature on geological stock accounting, identify shortcomings of current monitoring of mine production, and outline a conceptual framework for MB-consistent system integration based on material flow analysis (MFA). Our synthesis shows that recent developments in Earth observation, geoinformation management, and sustainability reporting act as catalysts that make MB-consistent geological stock accounting increasingly feasible. We propose first steps for its implementation and anticipate that our perspective as “resource realists” will facilitate the integration of geological and anthropogenic material systems, help secure future mineral supply, and support the global sustainability transition.

Environmental Science and Technology↗

USGS2017

Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO 2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is to compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO 2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.

Biogeosciences↗

USGS2021

The Independent Volcanic Eruption Source Parameter Archive (IVESPA, version 1.0): A new observational database to support explosive eruptive column model validation and development

Eruptive column models are powerful tools for investigating the transport of volcanic gas and ash, reconstructing past explosive eruptions, and simulating future hazards. However, the evaluation of these models is challenging as it requires independent estimates of the main model inputs (e.g. mass eruption rate) and outputs (e.g. column height). There exists no database of independently estimated eruption source parameters (ESPs) that is extensive, standardized, maintained, and consensus-based. This paper introduces the Independent Volcanic Eruption Source Parameter Archive (IVESPA, ivespa.co.uk), a community effort endorsed by the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI) Commission on Tephra Hazard Modelling. We compiled data for 134 explosive eruptive events, spanning the 1902-2016 period, with independent estimates of: i) total erupted mass of fall deposits; ii) duration; iii) eruption column height; and iv) atmospheric conditions. Crucially, we distinguish plume top versus umbrella spreading height, and the height of ash versus sulphur dioxide injection. All parameter values provided have been vetted independently by at least two experts. Uncertainties are quantified systematically, including flags to describe the degree of interpretation of the literature required for each estimate. IVESPA also includes a range of additional parameters such as total grain size distribution, eruption style, morphology of the plume (weak versus strong), and mass contribution from pyroclastic density currents, where available. We discuss the future developments and potential applications of IVESPA and make recommendations for reporting ESPs to maximize their usability across different applications. IVESPA covers an unprecedented range of ESPs and can therefore be used to evaluate and develop eruptive column models across a wide range of conditions using a standardized dataset.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2009

Database of the geologic map of North America— Adapted from the map by J.C. Reed, Jr. and others (2005)

Introduction The Geological Society of America's (GSA) Geologic Map of North America (Reed and others, 2005a; 1:5,000,000) shows the geology of a significantly large area of the Earth, centered on North and Central America and including the submarine geology of parts of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. This map is now converted to a Geographic Information System (GIS) database that contains all geologic and base-map information shown on the two printed map sheets and the accompanying explanation sheet. We anticipate this map database will be revised at some unspecified time in the future, likely through the actions of a steering committee managed by the GSA and staffed by scientists from agencies including those responsible for the original map compilation. Regarding the use of this product, as noted by the map's compilers: “The Geologic Map of North America is an essential educational tool for teaching the geology of North America to university students and for the continuing education of professional geologists in North America and elsewhere. In addition, simplified maps derived from the Geologic Map of North America are useful for enlightening younger students and the general public about the geology of the continent.” With publication of this database, the preparation of any type of simplified map is made significantly easier. More important perhaps, the database provides a more accessible means to explore the map information and to compare and analyze it in conjunction with other types of information (for example, land use, soils, biology) to better understand the complex interrelations among factors that affect Earth resources, hazards, ecosystems, and climate.

Data Series↗

USGS2023

Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology Project—Science strategy

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts a wide variety of science that improves understanding of droughts and their effects on ecosystems and society. This work includes data collection and monitoring of aquatic and terrestrial systems; assessment and analysis of patterns, trends, drivers, and impacts of drought; development and application of predictive models; and delivery of information and decision-making tools to stakeholders. Stakeholders, which include Federal, Tribal, State, and local agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and others, use this information to anticipate, assess, react to, and mitigate drought conditions and impacts. There is no obvious near-term solution to reduce the frequency and severity of droughts or to mitigate drought impacts. Multidecadal drought is a “grand challenge” that benefits from integration of existing technologies, data, knowledge, and models across related and disparate disciplines, facilitated by new science and technology. In response, the USGS initiated a new integrated-science approach in the Colorado River Basin in 2020. The Colorado River Basin was specifically selected because of concerns about future drought and its consequences for the region. This document explains how the Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology (ASIST) project extends and enhances the science supported by USGS Mission Areas and Programs and articulates scientific gaps and stakeholder needs to identify and reduce drought risks. The approach seeks to answer complex Earth science questions developed in partnership with stakeholders about severe long-term drought. An integrated approach is required to tackle these complex questions, which any single science discipline cannot answer on its own. In addition to increased understanding of drought and drought effects in complex systems, the Colorado River Basin ASIST project was designed to improve efficiencies through rapid location of a broad array of data sources, assembly of model-ready multidisciplinary data, and delivery of actionable science to stakeholders at the speeds and scales needed for decision making. The project team identified the following actions needed for USGS to implement and advance an integrated science approach in the Colorado River Basin: (1) engage with stakeholders to document their needs and iteratively co-produce science and science delivery tools to address these needs, (2) integrate monitoring and observation systems developed by USGS and other agencies that track droughts and their effects, (3) collect and provide analysis-ready data to support integrated applications, (4) integrate data and model connections to predict multiple drought impacts, (5) conduct multidisciplinary coordination to improve interpretations, (6) leverage the knowledge base across USGS to enhance decision making, and (7) support the development of new integrated science approaches and technologies that provide analysis and management tools that can be used to adapt to the effects of drought in the Colorado River Basin. Proposals for initial short-term use-case projects were solicited, a subset of which was selected for funding to test implementation of these actions. Additionally, the project organized and convened a series of science and technology collaboration workshops in the USGS focused on challenges that were identified and prioritized by the short-term use-case projects and during the initial stakeholder analysis. These workshops were designed to bring together diverse perspectives to discuss science and technology challenges, stakeholder needs, capabilities, and knowledge gaps, with the goal of determining how the USGS can address challenges, identify future opportunities for continued engagement between participants, and inform the next steps for the Colorado River Basin ASIST project. Continuing to collaboratively engage with a wide range of stakeholders using an integrated approach will provide a suitable foundation of data and tools to formulate actionable intelligence for predicting droughts and informing adaptation to the effects of long-term drought in a holistic, timely, and effective manner.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

USGS2013

U.S. Geological Survey core science systems strategy: Characterizing, synthesizing, and understanding the critical zone through a modular science framework

Executive Summary Core Science Systems is a new mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that resulted from the 2007 Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges: U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007–2017.” This report describes the Core Science Systems vision and outlines a strategy to facilitate integrated characterization and understanding of the complex Earth system. The vision and suggested actions are bold and far-reaching, describing a conceptual model and framework to enhance the ability of the USGS to bring its core strengths to bear on pressing societal problems through data integration and scientific synthesis across the breadth of science. The context of this report is inspired by a direction set forth in the 2007 Science Strategy. Specifically, ecosystem-based approaches provide the underpinnings for essentially all science themes that define the USGS. Every point on Earth falls within a specific ecosystem where data, other information assets, and the expertise of USGS and its many partners can be employed to quantitatively understand how that ecosystem functions and how it responds to natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Every benefit society obtains from the planet— food, water, raw materials to build infrastructure, homes and automobiles, fuel to heat homes and cities, and many others— are derived from or affect ecosystems. The vision for Core Science Systems builds on core strengths of the USGS in characterizing and understanding complex Earth and biological systems through research, modeling, mapping, and the production of high quality data on the Nation’s natural resource infrastructure. Together, these research activities provide a foundation for ecosystem-based approaches through geologic mapping, topographic mapping, and biodiversity mapping. The vision describes a framework founded on these core mapping strengths that makes it easier for USGS scientists to discover critical information, share and publish results, and identify potential collaborations that transcend all USGS missions. The framework is designed to improve the efficiency of scientific work within USGS by establishing a means to preserve and recall data for future applications, organizing existing scientific knowledge and data to facilitate new use of older information, and establishing a future workflow that naturally integrates new data, applications, and other science products to make interdisciplinary research easier and more efficient. Given the increasing need for integrated data and interdisciplinary approaches to solve modern problems, leadership by the Core Science Systems mission will facilitate problem solving by all USGS missions in ways not formerly possible. The report lays out a strategy to achieve this vision through three goals with accompanying objectives and actions. The first goal builds on and enhances the strengths of the Core Science Systems mission in characterizing and understanding the Earth system from the geologic framework to the topographic characteristics of the land surface and biodiversity across the Nation. The second goal enhances and develops new strengths in computer and information science to make it easier for USGS scientists to discover data and models, share and publish results, and discover connections between scientific information and knowledge. The third goal brings additional focus to research and development methods to address complex issues affecting society that require integration of knowledge and new methods for synthesizing scientific information. Collectively, the report lays out a strategy to create a seamless connection between all USGS activities to accelerate and make USGS science more efficient by fully integrating disciplinary expertise within a new and evolving science paradigm for a changing world in the 21st century.

Circular↗

USGS2025

River ice controls permafrost bank erosion across an Arctic delta

Bank erosion in Arctic rivers helps shape channel geometry, mobilizes carbon from permafrost and influences sediment delivery to the Arctic Ocean. On Alaska's Arctic coastal plain, rivers begin flowing during snowmelt in late spring while extensive river ice persists in channels, such that hydraulics are altered and water is kept cool. The effects of river ice on permafrost bank erosion are poorly understood, primarily due to a dearth of field observations and a lack of river ice in existing models. To address this knowledge gap, we developed a numerical model to simulate the melt of substrate interstitial ice and bank collapse along individual permafrost river banks. We parameterize the model with field observations from riverbanks in three different channels on the Canning River delta, which are disparately impacted by river ice during snowmelt. We explore the bank erosion produced without river ice in the model and with modern river ice model scenarios that we drive with different stages and water temperature boundary conditions. We also compare predicted erosion rates to observations from satellite imagery to validate this approach. In the model, banks are idealized as vertical profiles that rise 1–2 m above the river bed and are comprised of silt- to sand-sized sediment with dense roots in the active layer. Underneath, we generalize bank ice content underneath the active layer to represent ice-rich permafrost on the river corridor boundaries. The model predicts that these ice-rich river banks can erode by 2–6 m/yr. Scenarios without ice underpredict erosion in the distributary channels. Scenarios with varying river ice for different deltaic channels produce erosion rates similar to observations. Our results suggest that the prolonged melt of thick river ice in a delta nonlinearly impacts permafrost bank erosion by blocking river discharge to certain branches, heightening stage across the distributary network and locally limiting river water warming. Given expected changes in air temperature and hydrology, future estimates of Arctic river bank erosion could be improved by considering river ice.

Alaska↗