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At least 415 records · Page 23Linked to original sources

Numerical modeling of circulation and wave dynamics along the shoreline of Shinnecock Indian Nation in Long Island, New York

The Shinnecock Indian Nation on Long Island, New York, faces challenges of shoreline retreat, saltwater intrusion, and flooding of the Tribal lands under changing climate and rising sea level. However, understanding of the dynamics of tidal circulation and waves and their impacts on the Shinnecock Indian Nation’s shoreline remains limited. This numerical study employs the integrated modeling capabilities of the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-FLOW and the spectral-wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) to investigate the circulation and wave dynamics along the shoreline of Shinnecock Indian Nation. The results of the 1-year long simulation indicate the majority of wind waves approach the Shinnecock Nation shorelines at normal wave angles, with yearly averaged offshore wave height of around 0.2 meter, maximum wave height reaching 0.65 meter, and yearly averaged offshore wave power of approximately 50 watts per meter. Boulders, acting as natural barriers, have been placed along the shoreline to reduce erosive wave forcing. Simulation results indicate the boulders to the north end effectively attenuate wave energy and reduce annual wave power, while the boulders near the two tidal ponds adjacent to the Tribal cemetery only have a slight influence on wave energy. There are large spatial variabilities in wave attenuation and current velocity reduction by the boulders. The model framework developed in this study can be utilized for the optimal design of nature-based solutions, guiding decisions on the placement of living shoreline structures and determining their optimal size. This study further identifies data and knowledge gaps as well as future research opportunities that can enhance the performance of numerical models and contribute to the scientific understanding of coastal processes and facilitate the optimal design of hybrid living shorelines in the future to achieve the maximum protective efficacy. This research can help to inform strategies for safeguarding vulnerable coastal communities and promoting resilience and sustainability of shoreline along the Shinnecock Indian Nation.

New York↗

Tropical and subtropical coral reefs

Global declines in coral cover persist, owing to increasing ocean temperatures associated with climate change, continued coastal development, pollution, sedimentation, diseases and the destruction and overextraction of marine resources (through fishing and coral harvesting). These stressors have an impact on coral biodiversity, reef-associated fauna and the architectural complexity of reef frameworks, compromising the food security and livelihoods of the millions of people who depend on these ecosystems (virtually certain, well established). The frequency and severity of disturbances caused by heatwaves, disease outbreaks and tropical storms have increased (virtually certain, established but incomplete), curtailing the recovery time between such disturbances. This pattern is projected to continue on its current trajectory (at best) or accelerate (very likely). The ecosystem services provided by coral reefs are substantial, not only in terms of biodiversity, but also in terms of direct economic benefits (including coastal protection, livelihoods for millions and nurseries for commercial species), as well as less tangible benefits, such as cultural and aesthetic (intrinsic) value (virtually certain, well established). Conservation, restoration and regeneration efforts are under way on a global scale, but few initiatives are implemented on a long-term, sustainable basis, with socioeconomic considerations, such as livelihoods, taken into account (virtually certain, well established). A wide range of approaches and tools is being developed, many of which are designed to mitigate or halt reef declines. These are often restricted to local reef-wide projects, however, and the potential for upscaling is sometimes criticized (unresolved). Documented results are also almost always undermined by a clear disconnect between these and other policy decisions, such as the extraction and burning of fossil fuels and coastal development (likely). Regardless of scalability concerns, all programmes need to be embedded within a broader evidence-based conservation framework. Global efforts are required to facilitate reef ecosystem survival and continued function by reducing emissions and ongoing climate change (virtually certain, established but incomplete). The reefs of today will not be the reefs of tomorrow (virtually certain) and shifting baselines need to be considered when setting objectives with respect to conservation, restoration and regeneration (virtually certain, established but incomplete).

Report↗

Significance of headwater streams and perennial springs in ecological monitoring in Shenandoah National Park

Shenandoah National Park has been monitoring water chemistry and benthic macroinvertebrates in stream ecosystems since 1979. These monitoring efforts were designed to assess the status and trends in stream condition associated with atmospheric deposition (acid rain) and changes in forest health due to gypsy moth infestations. The primary objective of the present research was to determine whether the current long-term macroinvertebrate and water-quality monitoring program in Shenandoah National Park was failing to capture important information on the status and trends in stream condition by not sufficiently representing smaller, headwater streams. The current benthic-macroinvertebrate and water-chemistry sampling designs do not include routine collection of data from streams with contributing watershed areas smaller than 100 hectares, even though these small streams represent the overwhelming proportion of total stream length in the park. In this study, we sampled headwater sites, including headwater stream reaches (contributing watershed area approximately 100 hectares (ha) and perennial springs, in the park for aquatic macroinvertebrates and water chemistry and compared the results with current and historical data collected at long-term ecological monitoring (LTEM) sites on larger streams routinely sampled as part of ongoing monitoring efforts. The larger purpose of the study was to inform ongoing efforts by park managers to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the current aquatic monitoring program in light of other potential stressors (for example, climate change) and limited resources. Our results revealed several important findings that could influence management decisions regarding long-term monitoring of park streams. First, we found that biological indicators of stream condition at headwater sites and perennial springs generally were more indicative of lower habitat quality and were more spatially variable than those observed at sites on routinely monitored larger streams. We hypothesized that poorer stream condition observed in smaller streams was due to stream drying that occurs more frequently in headwater areas. We also found that biological and water-chemistry measures responded differently to landscape drivers. Variation in most biological endpoints was driven primarily by stream size and was only secondarily associated with bedrock geology. In contrast, water chemistry showed essentially the opposite pattern, with underlying geology explaining much of the variation and stream size being of secondary importance. Therefore, expanding the LTEM program to include headwater areas would yield substantially different biological information, whereas broad inferences regarding spatial patterns in water chemistry would probably not change. Although significant differences in community composition were observed among streams of different sizes, no taxa were unique to headwater sites. All taxa collected at the 45 headwater sites also had been collected at one or more LTEM sites during one or more years. This observation indicates that headwater sites in the park may be structured by biotic nestedness; consequently, focusing management efforts on preserving the species pool at the larger LTEM sites would likely result in the protection of most taxa parkwide. Finally, linkages (correlations) between water chemistry and biological measures of stream condition were signficantly stronger when assessed at the LTEM sites than when assessed at the springs or headwater sites, indicating that conditions at downstream sites may be better indicators of water-quality trends.

Virginia↗

Current and future potential ecosystem services of the Nisqually River Delta: An assessment approach for Puget Sound estuaries and USFWS coastal refuges

The Nisqually River Delta, located in South Puget Sound, contains a rich mosaic of different coastal habitat types. The goal of this project was to quantify ecosystem services — benefits that wildlife or ecosystems provide to people — that are priorities for the Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge, the Nisqually Indian Tribe, and the surrounding communities. We modeled how change in these habitats from sea level rise (SLR) or management activities like restoration could affect ecosystem services in the future. We focused on changes to three main ecosystem services: soil carbon accumulation, birdwatching visitation, and juvenile Chinook salmon growth rates, which served as a proxy for fishery production. A habitat and carbon model projected that after 100 years, most high salt marsh would remain with < 1m SLR, but a substantial area would convert to low salt marsh and mudflat with ≥ 1m SLR. Total carbon accumulation would plateau or decline with ≥ 1m SLR, yet economic value of carbon accumulation would continue to rise over time, suggesting that the value of this ecosystem service is resilient to SLR. Birdwatching visitation was greatest in winter months and was positively related to area of forested wetland, emergent wetland, aquatic vegetation bed (e.g., eelgrass) and mudflat and open access (areas freely accessible to the public). Increases in forested wetland may lead to greater increases in visitation compared to other habitat types. All three ecosystem services increased with increases in forested wetland and emergent wetland, and tradeoffs among services occurred with increases in aquatic vegetation bed and mudflat. While both prey-rich salt marshes and eelgrass meadows facilitate salmon growth, loss of salt marsh led to declines in juvenile salmon weight. In conversation with USFWS managers, we identified practical ways to incorporate ecosystem services into adaptive management frameworks that support climate adaptation decision making. Our study illustrated how accounting for ecosystem services helps managers make decisions that greatly benefit wildlife and people, communicate the societal value of decisions, and increase local engagement and participation.

Washington↗

Climate-driven state shifts in the Prairie Pothole Region: Assessing future impacts relevant to the management of wetland habitats critical to waterfowl

Embedded within the North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are millions of small, depressional wetlands that annually support 50–80% of the continent’s waterfowl production. We recently assembled evidence that demonstrates a change towards a wetter climate that is driving a shift in the state of the region’s wetland ecosystems. This ecological state-shift has been primarily the result of a sustained wet climate that has influenced timing and magnitude of surface-water inputs to wetlands, connections to groundwater, and inputs of dissolved salts. As climate influences continue to change in the PPR, it is important to understand the potential of these changes to impact wetland habitats important for waterfowl production. Previous model simulations of prairie-pothole wetlands under future climate scenarios projected decreases in the ability of wetlands to facilitate waterfowl production throughout the majority of what is currently the most productive portion of the region. Results from these modeling efforts also suggested that suitable waterfowl breeding-habitat would be limited mostly to the southeastern portion of the PPR, a portion of the region in which most depressional wetlands (> 90%) have been drained. Thus, if these modeled outcomes materialize, a significant restoration effort would be needed in the southeastern PPR to support waterfowl production. However, the models used in earlier efforts were developed from a small number of wetlands using data from a relatively dry period and did not allow for changing mechanisms influencing surface-water, groundwater and dissolved salt inputs to prairie-pothole wetlands. The primary objective of our research is to improve our understanding of future climate change on impacts to wetland ecosystems and breeding waterfowl habitat in the PPR. We used a newly developed Pothole Hydrology Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS) model to estimate wetland ecosystem responses to 32 distinct climate models under 2 different emissions scenarios. Unlike previous wetland hydrology models, the PHyLiSS model allows for shifting hydrological and geochemical mechanisms influencing wetland ecosystems. We modeled one average-sized seasonal wetland basin at 18 different geographic locations (hereafter “sites”) across the PPR with 3 sites represented for each of 6 ecoregions coincident to early research. We applied the PHyLiSS model using historical daily precipitation and temperature data from 1982–2015 and developed linear models relative to ponded water depth in the simulated wetlands and the observed regional WBPHS May Pond count number for 16 of the 18 sites. Based on the output of 32 climate models and 2 emission scenarios we found a projected change in May pond numbers from -23% to +.02% when comparing the most recent climate period (1989–2018) to the end of the 21 st century (2070–2099). We also found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds will shift in the future. These results suggest that management and conservation strategies for wetlands in the PPR should continue to focus on areas where high densities of intact wetland basins support large numbers of breeding duck pairs.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗

Hydrology of Sanpete Valley, Sanpete and Juab Counties, Utah, and simulation of ground-water flow in the valley-fill aquifer

The surface-and ground-water hydrology of Sanpete Valley and the San Pitch River drainage basin, Sanpete and Juab Counties, Utah, was studied to define the current conditions of the hydrologic system, to detect causes for downstream changes in water quality in the San Pitch River and in areas of high concentration of dissolved solids in ground water, and to determine the possible effects of present changes in irrigation methods and possible future increased ground-water withdrawals from the valley-fill aquifer. Measurements of water levels in wells show responses to climatic variation. The dissolved-solids concentration of water from the San Pitch River increases downstream. Principal areas of ground water with high concentrations of dissolved solids occur downgradient from outcrops of rocks of Jurassic and Tertiary age. One local-scale ground-water flow system discharges small volumes of water with high concentrations of dissolved solids to the San Pitch River southwest of Ephraim. Although ground water occurs in both valley-fill and consolidated-rock aquifers in the study area, more hydrologic information is available for the valley-fill aquifer. The valley-fill aquifer consists primarily of fine-grained silt and clay in the center of the valley and coarser deposits along the margin of the valley. Surface- water inflow to the valley is estimated to be about 152,000 acre-feet per year. Recharge to the valley-fill aquifer is estimated to be between 74,000 and 103,000 acre-feet per year. A three-dimensional, ground-water flow model was developed to better define present ground-water conditions and to determine possible effects of future changes in ground-water withdrawals from the valley-fill aquifer. Computer simulation results indicate the possibility of recharge to the valleyfill aquifer as subsurface inflow from consolidated-rock aquifers. Simulation of water-level changes during the late 1980's indicate that some of the declines could have been caused by conversion from flood irrigation to sprinkler irrigation. Predictive simulations using three times the average pumping rates indicate possible water-level declines of as much as 70 feet.

Utah↗

Simulated effects of sea-level rise on the shallow, fresh groundwater system of Assateague Island, Maryland and Virginia

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed a three-dimensional groundwater-flow model for Assateague Island in eastern Maryland and Virginia to assess the effects of sea-level rise on the groundwater system. Sea-level rise is expected to increase the altitude of the water table in barrier island aquifer systems, possibly leading to adverse effects to ecosystems on the barrier islands. The potential effects of sea-level rise were evaluated by simulating groundwater conditions under sea-level-rise scenarios of 20 centimeters (cm), 40 cm, and 60 cm. Results show that as sea level rises, low-lying areas of the island originally represented as receiving freshwater recharge in the baseline scenario are inundated by saltwater. This change from freshwater recharge to saltwater decreases the overall amount of freshwater recharging the system. As the water table rises in response to the higher sea levels, freshwater flow out of the system changes, with more freshwater leaving as submarine groundwater discharge and less freshwater leaving as seeps and evapotranspiration. At the current land-surface altitude, as much as 50 percent of the island may be inundated with a 60-cm rise in sea level, and the low-lying marshes may change from freshwater to saltwater. Groundwater levels at 32 wells were monitored for as long as 12 months between October 2014 and September 2015 on Assateague Island. Results from objective classification analysis of 14 shallow monitoring wells show two dominant processes affecting groundwater levels in two different settings on the island. On the western side of the island, between the primary dune and the inland bays, water levels clearly respond to precipitation events. This side of the island is more protected from ocean tides and typically is more vegetated than the eastern side. On the eastern side of the island, between the Atlantic Ocean and the primary dune, water levels clearly respond to tidal events. Specific conductance was measured at four wells, two on the western part of the island and two on the eastern part of the island. Specific conductance values in the two wells west of the primary dune show episodic decreases, coinciding with precipitation events. Specific conductance values in the two wells on the eastern side of the primary dune show episodic increases, coinciding with high-tide events. These high frequency monitoring data are intended to aid in designing a monitoring network that can document both short-term and long-term hydrologic processes on Assateague Island National Seashore. This study uses a modeling approach consistent with models developed for Gateway National Recreation Area, Sandy Hook Unit (New Jersey) and Fire Island National Seashore (New York). Combined, these models are meant to improve the regional capabilities for predicting climate-change effects on barrier islands and provide resource managers with a common set of tools for adaptation and mitigation of potentially adverse effects of sea-level rise.

Maryland, Virginia↗

Evaluating an improved systems approach to wetland crediting: Consideration of wetland ecosystem services

The Chesapeake Bay Agreement (CBA) has numerous direct goals for improving habitat, living resources, and water quality, conserving lands, engaging communities and addressing a changing climate. To date, the progress toward the wetlands outcome (creation/ restoration of 85,000 acres and enhancement of 150,000 acres) has been very slow and the outcome is projected to be off course for 2025. Two specific confounding issues arise in efforts to achieve the Bay wetlands goal: 1) the idea that restoration is driven, and incentivized and accounted for, in order to meet the TMDL’s water quality (WQ) benefits, leaving habitat benefits undervalued; and 2) there is often tension between competing restoration priorities and financial resources among different Best Management Practice (BMP) types that include wetlands, such as wetland restoration/creation/rehabilitation, stream restoration, and the creation or restoration of forest buffers. The collaborative workshop “ Evaluating an Improved Systems Approach to Wetland Crediting: Consideration of Wetland Ecosystem Services ” was held March 22-23, 2022 to explore the wetland accounting system and provide insight on improved approaches to promote wetland projects toward the wetlands outcome. Four sessions were organized around topics of 1) Accounting, 2) Landscape Systems Approach, 3) Wetlands Projects and Co-Benefits, and 4) Management Implications and Recommendation Development with 21 presentations, Q and A and facilitated discussions. Acknowledgement of the limitations of the current management framework to achieve significant gains in wetland area supports the conclusion that absent significant adaptive management of wetlands efforts, any outcome for net wetlands gains beyond 2025 will be similarly confounded. Workshop findings included suggestions for how to approach restoration projects at a systems level (e.g., creek, shoreline reach, watershed) in order to maximize synergies for multiple ecological outcomes and ecosystem services. Recommendations for improvement on existing efforts, as well as new processes, tools and partnerships are suggested from the workshop’s analysis of the state of the science as considerations to increase implementation of wetlands projects.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

Coastal landforms and processes at the Cape Cod National Seashore, Massachusetts—A primer

Anyone who spends more than a few days on Cape Cod (the Cape) quickly becomes a coastal geologist, quickly learning the rhythms of daily tides and the seasonal cycles of beaches growing and being swept away by storms; swimmers and surfers track how the breakers appear, and dog-walkers notice the hard-packed sand blanketed overnight by an airy layer that leaves deep labored tracks. Careful observers whose paths wander to the ocean&rsquo;s edge will observe many of the landforms and coastal processes described in this book and if we have done our job well, the stories told here will seem familiar. Watchful experience brings insights; indeed, this is how scientists and perhaps how artists work, describing patterns that explain and predict. When is the next high tide? What will the winter bring? Where do we build, fish, swim? How do wind and waves offshore in the North Atlantic help arrange the plants and dunes and hollows on the beach? And most of all, as human animals drawn to live and play on the edge of the ocean, how do we get the benefits of this complex natural system of geology and biology? How do we affect coastal processes; how is the coast changing now and how is the coast likely to change in years ahead with climate warming and climate change? This book is about the highly dynamic coastal landforms of Cape Cod&mdash;the beaches, bluffs, spits, dunes, barrier beaches, estuaries, and salt marshes. What they are, why they are where they are, how they behave with respect to the greater Cape Cod coastal system&mdash;how the landforms respond to day-to-day and long-term geologic processes, such as waves and currents, change in sediment transport, relative sea-level rise, and meteorological processes such as hurricanes, nor&rsquo;easters, and cold front passages. It is also about how the landforms got to be where they are and the way they are and where they are headed in the near future with the predicted effects of global climate warming and change. Our objective is to provide a single source of understandable and readable scientific information for those who live, play, and work on outer Cape Cod and at the Cape Cod National Seashore, as well as to provide an introduction to Cape Cod&rsquo;s coastal landforms for anyone with an interest in Earth science and nature who wants a better understanding of coastal systems and processes. Basic to an understanding of coastal landforms is the fact that they work together&mdash;they interact&mdash;as elements of many systems, and therefore our ultimate concern is not the individual landform itself but rather the geologic systems that make up Cape Cod and the Cape Cod National Seashore. Much of this discussion can be applied as well to Nantucket, Martha&rsquo;s Vineyard, and other coastal regions. The coast of outer Cape Cod, about 15,000 years old and about 30 miles (mi; 50 kilometers [km]) long, is but a tiny piece of the global Earth system that operates within a much larger realm of space and time. Cape Cod&rsquo;s coastal landforms are temporary holding patterns within a continual interplay of land, sea, atmosphere, climate, ice, and life, including a variety of human activities that both affect and are affected by these processes. These interactions produce the landforms, and the landforms alter the interactions. The resulting landforms provide habitats for a wide variety of coastal plants and animals. The habitats along with their inhabitants and the interacting environmental factors controlling them constitute the Cape&rsquo;s complex and varied ecosystems. But for now, we are here to enjoy it. We welcome you to delight and wonder at the perpetually changing handshake between the ocean and shore at New England&rsquo;s Great Beach.

Massachusetts↗

Identifying bird and reptile vulnerabilities to climate change in the southwestern United States

Current and future breeding ranges of 15 bird and 16 reptile species were modeled in the Southwestern United States. Rather than taking a broad-scale, vulnerability-assessment approach, we created a species distribution model (SDM) for each focal species incorporating climatic, landscape, and plant variables. Baseline climate (1940–2009) was characterized with Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data and future climate with global-circulation-model data under an A1B emission scenario. Climatic variables included monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation; landscape variables included terrain ruggedness, soil type, and insolation; and plant variables included trees and shrubs commonly associated with a focal species. Not all species-distribution models contained a plant, but if they did, we included a built-in annual migration rate for more accurate plant-range projections in 2039 or 2099. We conducted a group meta-analysis to (1) determine how influential each variable class was when averaged across all species distribution models (birds or reptiles), and (2) identify the correlation among contemporary (2009) habitat fragmentation and biological attributes and future range projections (2039 or 2099). Projected changes in bird and reptile ranges varied widely among species, with one-third of the ranges predicted to expand and two-thirds predicted to contract. A group meta-analysis indicated that climatic variables were the most influential variable class when averaged across all models for both groups, followed by landscape and plant variables (birds), or plant and landscape variables (reptiles), respectively. The second part of the meta-analysis indicated that numerous contemporary habitat-fragmentation (for example, patch isolation) and biological-attribute (for example, clutch size, longevity) variables were significantly correlated with the magnitude of projected range changes for birds and reptiles. Patch isolation was a significant trans-specific driver of projected bird and reptile ranges, suggesting that strategic actions should focus on restoration and enhancement of habitat at local and regional scales to promote landscape connectivity and conservation of core areas.

Open-File Report↗

U.S. Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center Science and Operational Plan

Climate change challenges many of the basic assumptions routinely used by conservation planners and managers, including the identification and prioritization of areas for conservation based on current environmental conditions and the assumption those conditions could be controlled by management actions. Climate change will likely alter important ecosystem drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain current environmental conditions into the future. Additionally, the potential for future conservation of non-conservation lands may be affected by climate change, which further complicates resource planning. Potential changes to ecosystem drivers, as a result of climate change, highlight the need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change. The U.S. Congress, recognized the potential effects of climate change and authorized the creation of the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) in 2008. The directive of the NCCWSC is to produce science that supports resource-management agencies as they anticipate and adapt to the effects of climate change on fish, wildlife, and their habitats. On September 14, 2009, U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Secretary Ken Salazar signed Secretarial Order 3289 (amended February 22, 2010), which expanded the mandate of the NCCWSC to address climate-change-related impacts on all DOI resources. Secretarial Order 3289 "Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America's Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources," established the foundation of two partner-based conservation science entities: Climate Science Centers (CSC) and their primary partners, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC). CSCs and LCCs are the Department-wide approach for applying scientific tools to increase the understanding of climate change, and to coordinate an effective response to its impacts on tribes and the land, water, ocean, fish and wildlife, and cultural-heritage resources that DOI manages. The NCCWSC is establishing a network of eight DOI CSCs (Alaska, Southeast, Northwest, North Central, Pacific Islands, Southwest, Northeast, and South Central) that will work with a variety of partners and stakeholders to provide resource managers the tools and information they need to help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The Southeast CSC, a federally led research collaboration hosted by North Carolina State University, was established in 2010. The Southeast CSC brings together the expertise of federal and university scientists to address climate-change priority needs of federal, state, non-governmental, and tribal resource managers. This document is the first draft of a science and operational plan for the Southeast CSC. The document describes operational considerations, provides the context for climate-change impacts in the Southeastern United States, and establishes six major science themes the Southeast CSC will address in collaboration with partners. This document is intended to be reevaluated and modified as partner needs change.

Open-File Report↗

Biological review of 82 species of coral petitioned to be included in the Endangered Species Act

list 83 coral species as threatened or endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The petition was based on a predicted decline in available habitat for the species, citing anthropogenic climate change and ocean acidification as the lead factors among the various stressors responsible for the potential decline. The NMFS identified 82 of the corals as candidate species, finding that the petition provided substantive information for a potential listing of these species. The NMFS established a Biological Review Team (BRT) to prepare this Status Review Report that examines the status of these 82 candidate coral species and evaluates extinction risk for each of them. This document makes no recommendations for listing, as that is a separate evaluation to be conducted by the NMFS. The BRT considered two major factors in conducting this review. The first factor was the interaction of natural phenomena and anthropogenic stressors that could potentially contribute to coral extinction. After extensive review of available scientific information, the BRT considers ocean warming, disease, and ocean acidification to be the most influential threats in posing extinction risks to the 82 candidate coral species between now and the year 2100. Threats of local origin but having widespread impact, such as sedimentation, nutrient enrichment, and fishing, were considered of medium importance in determining extinction risks. It is acknowledged that many other threats (e.g., physical damage from storms or ship groundings, invasive species or predator outbreaks, collection and trade) also negatively affect corals, often acutely and dramatically, but generally at relatively small local scales. These local threats were considered to be of limited scope and not deemed to contribute appreciably to the risk of species extinction, except in those special cases where species have restricted geographic or habitat ranges or species have already undergone precipitous population declines such that these local threats further contribute to depensatory processes that can magnify extinction risks (e.g., feedback-loops whereby individual survival decreases with smaller population size). The BRT acknowledges that local and global threats operate on different time scales and, though there is high confidence in the general progression of some key global threats, such as ocean warming and ocean acidification, there is much less certainty in the timing and spatial patterns of these threats. There is also substantial uncertainty in the abilities of the 82 candidate coral species to tolerate or adapt to each of the threats examined, as well as uncertainty in the dynamics of multiple simultaneous stresses. The BRT specifically identified increasing human population levels and the intensity of their collective human consumption as the root drivers of almost all global and local threats to coral species. In evaluating future threat impacts, the BRT attempted to project current trends, without assumptions of future policy changes or technological advances that could potentially alter the projections used in this analysis.

NOAA Technical Memorandum↗

Polar Bear Population Status in the Southern Beaufort Sea

Polar bears depend entirely on sea ice for survival. In recent years, a warming climate has caused major changes in the Arctic sea ice environment, leading to concerns regarding the status of polar bear populations. Here we present findings from long-term studies of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) region of the U.S. and Canada, which are relevant to these concerns. We applied open population capture-recapture models to data collected from 2001 to 2006, and estimated there were 1,526 (95% CI = 1,211; 1,841) polar bears in the SBS region in 2006. The number of polar bears in this region was previously estimated to be approximately 1,800. Because precision of earlier estimates was low, our current estimate of population size and the earlier ones cannot be statistically differentiated. For the 2001-06 period, the best fitting capture-recapture model provided estimates of total apparent survival of 0.43 for cubs of the year (COYs), and 0.92 for all polar bears older than COYs. Because the survival rates for older polar bears included multiple sex and age strata, they could not be compared to previous estimates. Survival rates for COYs, however, were significantly lower than estimates derived in earlier studies (P = 0.03). The lower survival of COYs was corroborated by a comparison of the number of COYs per adult female for periods before (1967-89) and after (1990-2006) the winter of 1989-90, when warming temperatures and altered atmospheric circulation caused an abrupt change in sea ice conditions in the Arctic basin. In the latter period, there were significantly more COYs per adult female in the spring (P = 0.02), and significantly fewer COYs per adult female in the autumn (P < 0.001). Apparently, cub production was higher in the latter period, but fewer cubs survived beyond the first 6 months of life. Parallel with declining survival, skull measurements suggested that COYs captured from 1990 to 2006 were smaller than those captured before 1990. Similarly, both skull measurements and body weights suggested that adult males captured from 1990 to 2006 were smaller than those captured before 1990. The smaller stature of males was especially notable because it corresponded with a higher mean age of adult males. Male polar bears continue to grow into their teens, and if adequately nourished, the older males captured in the latter period should have been larger than those captured earlier. In western Hudson Bay, Canada, a significant decline in population size was preceded by observed declines in cub survival and physical stature. The evidence of declining recruitment and body size reported here, therefore, suggests vigilance regarding the future of polar bears in the SBS region.

Open-File Report↗

Regression models of monthly water-level change in and near the Closed Basin Division of the San Luis Valley, south-central Colorado

The Bureau of Reclamation is developing a water-resource project, the Closed Basin Division, in the San Luis Valley of south-central Colorado that is designed to salvage unconfined ground water that currently is discharged as evapotranspiration. The water table in and near the 130,000-acre Closed Basin Division area will be lowered by an annual withdrawal of as much as 100,000 acre-feet of ground water from the unconfined aquifer. The legislation authorizing the project limits resulting drawdown of the water table in preexisting irrigation and domestic wells outside the Closed Basin Division to a maximum of 2 feet. Water levels in the closed basin in the northern part of the San Luis Valley historically have fluctuated more than 2 feet in response to water-use practices and variation of climatically controlled recharge and discharge. Declines of water levels in nearby wells that are caused by withdrawals in the Closed Basin Division can be quantified if water-level fluctuations that result from other water-use practices and climatic variations can be estimated. This study was done to evaluate water-level change at selected observation wells in and near the Closed Basin Division. Regression models of monthly water-level change were developed to predict monthly water-level change in 46 selected observation wells. Predictions of monthly water-level change are based on one or more of the following: elapsed time, cosine and sine functions with an annual period, streamflow depletion of the Rio Grande, electrical use for agricultural purposes, runoff into the closed basin, precipitation, and mean air temperature. Regression models for five of the wells include only an intercept term and either an elapsed-time term or terms determined by the cosine and sine functions. Regression models for the other 41 wells include 1 to 4 of the 5 other variables, which can vary from month to month and from year to year. Serial correlation of the residuals was detected in 24 of the regression models. These models also include an autoregressive term to account for serial correlation in the residuals. The adjusted coefficient of determination (Ra2) for the 46 regression models range from 0.08 to 0.89, and the standard errors of estimate range from 0.034 to 2.483 feet. The regression models of monthly water- level change can be used to evaluate whether post-1985 monthly water-level change values at the selected observation wells are within the 95-percent confidence limits of predicted monthly water-level change.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Assessing spatial variability of nutrients, phytoplankton, and related water-quality constituents in the California Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta at the landscape scale—2018 high resolution mapping surveys

Executive Summary This study examined the abundance and distribution of nutrients and phytoplankton in the tidal aquatic environments of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta) and Suisun Bay, comprising three spatial surveys conducted in May, July, and October of 2018 that used continuous underway high frequency sampling and measurements onboard a high-speed boat to characterize spatial variation across the extent of the Delta. The method used involves simultaneously collecting information about the concentration and spatial distribution of all major nutrient forms with analogous information about the major classes of phytoplankton and associated water-quality conditions. The results showed substantial variation across space and time, providing an unprecedented snapshot of the dynamic environmental processes that shape the ways nutrients interact with and affect aquatic habitats in the Delta. The purposes of this study were to improve our understanding of how hydrodynamics, landscape features, and aquatic primary productivity interact to drive nutrient cycling and transport in the Delta and to provide insights into the underlying processes most directly responsible for the conditions at the time of this study, and thus into the range of conditions that may be expected following the wide array of prospective future changes to the Delta. One major anticipated change at the time of this study was the planned upgrade to the Sacramento Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant, but the study also informs our understanding of potential effects from other changes to the Delta, such as those caused by other nutrient-management actions, flow actions, large-scale wetland restoration, drought, flood, levee failure, and changes to water management. Nutrient loading is the primary driver of nutrient concentrations in the Delta, but several other major drivers interact to shape their distribution and effects: geomorphology, hydrodynamics, landscape features, and aquatic productivity. Hydrodynamics affect timescales of transport and dilution of nutrient loads in the Delta. During transit through the system, channel geometry, tidal mixing, and water exports affect hydrodynamics in diverse ways that influence water-residence and transport times, thereby markedly affecting the range of times during which natural internal cycling can alter nutrient concentrations and forms. Channel geometry and location shape tidal energy and river currents into these observed dynamics. Interactions with Delta aquatic landscapes such as herbaceous tidal marsh, submerged aquatic vegetation, and large expanses of intertidal or subtidal sediments (all highly productive landscapes) exert demand on available nutrient supplies but can also simultaneously transform and generate nutrients. Finally, while phytoplankton require nutrients to sustain production and thus are a potential nutrient sink, the amount and form of nutrients also can influence the occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that adversely affect aquatic organisms as well as affect the occurrence of beneficial algal blooms that result in production of algae that are favorable for imperiled Delta pelagic aquatic food webs. The surveys revealed a complex mosaic of spatial variation, with nutrient concentrations varying from near zero to well above concentrations considered eutrophic; nutrient concentrations were more often related to the extent of hydrologic transport and mixing than to specific geographic locations or to specific landscape features. Similarly, the surveys identified phytoplankton abundance ranging from near detection to the level of large phytoplankton blooms, with large variation in phytoplankton community composition. Although the study occurred during a period of low bloom activity, phytoplankton productivity appeared to be the strongest potential sink for inorganic nutrients in the Delta, indicating that it is a larger control on nutrient concentrations and distribution than previously understood. Cycling and transformation within the water column only appeared to substantially lower total nutrient concentrations at the longest estimated transport timescales. Contrary to expectations, we did not observe substantial nutrient depletion near landscape-scale features such as open-water habitats, submerged aquatic vegetation beds, extensive wetlands, or exposed sediments, indicating that these habitat types did not act as major sinks for nutrients in the Delta during these surveys. These results indicated that nutrient reduction efforts may have the greatest effect on pelagic phytoplankton productivity in the more productive reaches of the Delta and estuary, but these effects are unlikely to be magnified by changes to nutrient loss within the Delta over conceivable changes in flow conditions, Delta water management actions, or large-scale wetland restoration activities. Nevertheless, local processes were shown to cause substantial loss, and thus integrating of nutrient effects with other indicators of aquatic habitat conditions will help inform planning future actions at specific sites. Finally, we note that the primary contribution of this study was intended to be the survey data themselves. Aside from the results highlighted in this report, the surveys are a benchmark against which future environmental change may be evaluated, including changes to nutrient management or water exports, drought, large-scale wetland restoration, and climate change. Further, although we highlight some of the main findings from the surveys in this report, the necessarily limited scope precludes examination of many topics for which these surveys may be highly informative. To facilitate the utility of these data to stakeholders, managers, and researchers, we have released the data online (Bergamaschi and others, 2020) and created an online data exploration portal ( https:​//ca.water​.usgs.gov/​bay-​delta/​2018-​delta-​wide-​mapping-​surveys.html ) where users may query the surveys in a variety of ways to test hypotheses, examine relationships, assess spatial trends, and download data. The data exploration portal is intended to be an immersive experience that allows users to gain greater understanding of the complex interactions that shape Delta aquatic environments. This report is intended as a companion to the portal, allowing the reader to challenge and further explore the highlighted findings. This study was a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Delta Regional Monitoring Program, with additional funding provided from U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Matching Funds Program.

California↗

A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for all native Hawaiian plants

In Hawaiʽi and elsewhere, research efforts have focused on two main approaches to determine the potential impacts of climate change on individual species: estimating species vulnerabilities and projecting responses of species to expected changes. We integrated these approaches by defining vulnerability as the inability of species to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., tolerate projected changes, endure in microrefugia, or migrate to new climate-compatible areas, but excluding evolutionary adaptation). To operationalize this response-based definition of species vulnerability within a landscape-based analysis, we used current and future climate envelopes for each species to define zones across the landscape: the toleration zone; the microrefugia zone; and the migration zone. Using these response zones we calculated a diverse set of factors related to habitat area, quality, and distribution for each species, including the amount of habitat protection and fragmentation and areas projected to be lost to sea-level rise. We then calculated the probabilities of each species exhibiting these responses using a Bayesian network model and determined the overall climate change vulnerability of each species by using a vulnerability index. As a first iteration of a response-based species vulnerability assessment (VA), our landscape-based analysis effectively integrates species-distribution models into a Bayesian network-based VA that can be updated with improved models and data for more refined analyses in the future. Our results show that the species most vulnerable to climate change also tend to be species of conservation concern due to non-climatic threats (e.g., competition and predation from invasive species, land-use change). Also, many of Hawaiʽi’s taxa that are most vulnerable to climate change share characteristics with species that in the past were found to be at risk of extinction due to non-climatic threats (e.g., archipelago endemism, single-island endemism). Of particular concern are the numerous species that have no compatible-climate areas remaining by the year 2100. Species primarily associated with dry forests have higher vulnerability scores than species from any other habitat type. When examined at taxonomic levels above species, low vulnerabilities are concentrated in families and genera of generalists (e.g., ferns or sedges) and typically associated with mid-elevation wet habitats. Our results replicate findings from other regions that link higher species vulnerability with decreasing range size. This species VA is possibly the largest in scope ever conducted in the United States with over 1000 species considered, 319 of which are listed as endangered or threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, filling a critical knowledge gap for resource managers in the region. The information in this assessment can help prioritize species for special conservation actions, guide the management of conservation areas, inform the selection of research and monitoring priorities, and support adaptive management planning and implementation.

Hawai'i↗

Demography and population status of polar bears in western Hudson Bay

We evaluated the demography and population status of the Western Hudson Bay (WH) polar bear subpopulation for the period 1984-2011, using live-recapture data from research studies and management actions, and dead-recovery data from polar bears harvested for subsistence purposes or removed during human-bear conflicts. We used a Bayesian implementation of multistate capture-recapture models, coupled with a matrix-based demographic projection model, to integrate several types of data and to incorporate sampling uncertainty, and demographic and environmental stochasticity across the polar bear life cycle. This approach allowed for estimation of a suite of vital rates, including survival and reproduction. These vital rates were used to parameterize a Bayesian population model to evaluate population trends and project potential population outcomes under different environmental scenarios. Survival of female polar bears of all age classes was significantly correlated with sea ice conditions; particularly with the timing of sea ice break-up in the spring and formation in the fall and the interaction of the two. This is consistent with previous findings linking body condition and survival of WH polar bears to environmental changes associated with climatic warming and supports the ecological dependence of polar bears on the availability of sea ice. Survival of male polar bears was not correlated with sea ice conditions. This was likely because a higher proportion of mortality for males was caused by humans rather than by natural factors. For example, approximately 73% of mortality for young male bears (i.e., 5-9 years old) was due to direct human-caused removals, largely because of sex selectivity in the subsistence harvest. The declining trend in size of the WH subpopulation over the period 1987-2004 was similar to a previous analysis (Regehr et al. 2007), suggesting consistency between the two demographic evaluations. Point estimates of abundance were somewhat lower using the updated statistical approach. It is important to recognize that the analyzed data were not collected in a manner that is optimal for estimating abundance and that the goal of the current analysis was to estimate vital rates and demographic trends. Estimates of population growth rate were also derived using a Bayesian population model based on estimated survival and reproductive rates from the multistate capture-recapture model. For the recent decade 2001-2011, the growth rate of the female segment of the population was 1.02 (95% CI = 0.98-1.06). Apparently stable to positive population growth for females may be due in large part to nonlinearity (i.e., short-term stability) in the long-term observed and forecasted trend toward earlier sea ice break-up in western Hudson Bay. The 2011 abundance estimate from this analysis was 806 bears with a 95% Bayesian credible interval of 653-984. This is lower than, but broadly consistent with, the abundance estimate of 1,030 (95% confidence interval = 745-1406) from a 2011 aerial survey (Stapleton et al. 2014). The capture-recapture and aerial survey approaches have different spatial and temporal coverage of the WH subpopulation and, consequently, the effective study population considered by each approach is different.

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Managed aquifer recharge in snow-fed river basins: What, why and how?

What does climate change mean for snow-fed river basins? Climate change poses unique challenges in snow-fed river basins across the western United States because the majority of water supply originates as snow (Dettinger, Udall, & Georgakakos, 2015). In the Sierra Nevada, recent observations include changes in snow accumulation and snowmelt, and shifts in peak streamflow timing (Barnhart et al., 2016; Hatchett et al., 2017; Kim & Jain, 2010; McCabe, Wolock, & Valentin, 2018; Mote, Li, Lettenmaier, Xiao, & Engel, 2018). Such changes upstream alter surface water deliveries downstream, as well as groundwater recharge utilized as both primary and supplemental water supply (Godsey et al., 2014; Harpold, 2016; Jasechko et al., 2014). basin where snowmelt runoff produces substantial water supply to meet diverse agricultural, environmental and urban water demand (Figure 1). The East and West Forks join at the confluence of the Carson River near the north end of the Carson Valley, a rich agricultural region (40,000 acres) that grows primarily alfalfa hay. The majority of irrigators rely on surface water delivered through a network of earthen ditches constructed in the mid-19th and early 20th centuries. Flow through these earthen networks and the practice of flood irrigation contribute significantly to groundwater recharge. Because no upstream surface water reservoirs exist, snowpack that accumulates through winter and melts slowly through spring has acted as a “natural” reservoir, providing ample supply through the summer irrigati agricultural, environmental and urban water demand (Figure 1). The East and West Forks join at the confluence of the Carson River near the north end of the season. Some irrigators have permitted access to supplemental groundwater that is useful during periods of drought for augmenting shortfalls in surface water delivery. Groundwater is the primary source of municipal and industrial water supply for surrounding communities (e.g., Carson City, Minden, Gardnerville, Dayton). Across the basin, water use is highly regulated through federal, tribal, state and local water-sharing agreements based on prior appropriation doctrine (Wilds, 2014). Carson River surface water allocations follow the Alpine Decree, initiated by the United States Department of Interior in 1925 and signed into law in 1980, following 55 years of litigation, to adjudicate surface water rights to individual parties (NDWP, 1999). The Alpine Decree acknowledges return flows to lower river segments, and thus each river segment is distributed autonomously. This means that the most junior water right on an upper segment can be fulfilled before considering the most senior water right on a lower segment. Ultimately, the ruling is at the discretion of the Federal Water Master to satisfy the needs of each water right Downstream of Carson Valley, surface water flows are stored in Lahontan Reservoir, the nation’s first desert reclamation project (est. 1906), where releases are managed to meet the Newland’s Project irrigation water demand and for environmental use on the Stillwater National Wildlife Refuge. Flows from the Carson River are supplemented through diversions from the Truckee River via the Truckee Canal, resulting in a trans-basin water supply system. How is the Water for the Seasons research program informing snow-fed river basin communities? In the Truckee-Carson River System, researchers and local water managers are working together to assess climate change impacts to water supply and explore how model simulations can produce useful information to support local climate adaptation. Twelve key water managers represent agricultural, environmental, urban and regulatory water-use communities, and bring to the table diverse input and perspectives on how to adapt to climate change. Hydrologists use this input to craft scenarios and simulations that meet the information needs of local water managers. Biannual workshops provide an opportunity for information exchange, where researchers and key water managers generate new knowledge of river system function. That is, researchers share results of models that examine the physical potential, and managers validate the on-the-ground potential, further informing the research process. Coincident to this research program, the region faced a prolonged drought period (2012-2016) with historically low snowpack, followed by a historic wet year (2017) that brought winter and spring flooding as a result of atmospheric river storm events (Sterle et al., 2019). For the Carson River, an important observation made by managers was that peak streamflow that had traditionally coincided with peak irrigation demands, had shifted to earlier in the spring, with summer baseflow also decreasing (Sterle & Singletary, 2017). Managers shared with researchers concerns over potential future impacts that changing snowpack will have on surface water deliveries and reliance on groundwater, as the region’s population and economy continue to grow. During workshops that occurred over this period, local water managers and researchers discussed ways to evaluate water distribution and use that honors the existing legal framework and accounts for changing snowpack regimes (amount, rain versus snow, timing). In response to managers growing interest, researchers introduced the concept of managed aquifer recharge as one potential strategy to adapt and enhance regional water sustainability. What is managed aquifer recharge? Simply stated, managed aquifer recharge is the intentional recharge of structures to spread water over agricultural lands, allowing water to naturally infiltrate into the groundwater system (Bouwer, 1999; Niswonger et al., 2017). The latter may occur during the irrigation season by applying excess water, or during the nonirrigation season when evapotranspiration losses are low. Figure 2 illustrates managed aquifer recharge in a snow-fed river basin, where streamflow generated from snowmelt runoff is diverted to agricultural lands to recharge the aquifer. Such flood irrigation practices, including water delivery through earthen ditch networks, provide incidental but significant aquifer recharge through seepage and deep drainage beneath fields (Niswonger, Allander, & Jeton, 2014). The effects of managed aquifer recharge can vary depending on the location and intensity of practice. For example, implementing managed aquifer recharge water into the groundwater system (Dillon, 2009). This differs from the incidental recharge that may occur as part of normal irrigation practices. Managed recharge may occur by injection into the aquifer through existingwells, or by using existing conveyance adjacent to/along the river’s floodplain has the potential to enhance late-season instream flows due to increased return flows, resulting in greater downstream deliveries as well as improving ecological conditions (Niswonger et al., 2017). Implementing managed aquifer recharge away from the river’s floodplain has the potential to enhance groundwater supply which is increasingly relied upon during surface water shortage (Green et al., 2011), by storing water in available aquifer space in the deep aquifer. At the basin scale, managed aquifer recharge may lead to regional groundwater sustainability. Is the Carson River Basin a candidate for managed aquifer recharge? The physical limitations to implementing managed aquifer recharge in the Carson River Basin hinges on three key factors. The first factor relates to the physical connectivity between rivers and streams, and the irrigation delivery network of canals and ditches that divert water to agricultural lands (Niswonger et al., 2017). In the Carson River Basin the mechanisms for getting water to fields is already in place. Thus, intentionally routing high flows that occur in wet years through this system during the nonirrigation season would mimic what occurs naturally during the irrigation season. The second factor relates to the occurrence of atmospheric river storm events that deliver large amounts of precipitation to the region, much greater than average (Dettinger et al., 2015). With increased frequency and intensity projected under a warmer climate, such events have the potential to produce excess water over short periods of time that could be stored through mechanisms such as managed aquifer recharge (Niswonger et al., 2017). The third factor relates to the change in snowpack accumulation and shifts in snowmelt timing observed elsewhere in the Sierra Nevada (e.g., Godsey et al., 2014; Mote et al., 2018). Having a mechanism in place to maximize use of earlier snowmelt and shifts in streamflow timing could be advantageous and enhance regional groundwater sustainability. As part of the Water for the Seasons study, a hypothetical scenario was developed to determine the feasibility of managed aquifer recharge in the Carson River Basin, assuming no legal constraints. During “wet” or above-average water years, irrigators in the Upper Carson Valley would divert high flows and spread water over agricultural lands during the nonirrigation season. Assuming flows are abundant and “early,” diversions would begin prior to the growing season, when water would otherwise flow downstream to the Lahontan Reservoir. During “dry” years or drought periods, when surface water availability is less, irrigators in the Upper Carson Valley could augment surface water shortages with groundwater, allowing available surface water flows to flow downstream. Researchers hypothesize the amount of water has the potential to boost baseflow to support environmental instream flows, for example. What concerns have local water managers expressed? The hypothetical managed aquifer recharge scenario was presented to water managers in a workshop setting. Presentations included an overview of the hydrologic and operations modeling tools used to evaluate managed aquifer recharge by simulating the timing and distribution of water in the upper watershed. Specifically, in the Upper Carson Valley, a hydrologic model (GSFLOW) simulates streamflow driven by snowmelt, and surface and groundwater interactions, while a river basin operations model (MODSIM) allocates water according to the prior appropriation doctrine in the basin (see Figure 1) (Morway, Niswonger, & Triana, 2016; Niswonger et al., 2017). Integrating these two modeling tools advances the evaluation of climate impacts on water availability in agricultural communities and the resulting impacts of alternative management strategies (Morway et al., 2016). When asked about the viability of managed aquifer recharge, the perspectives of 11 managers varied (Figure 3). Regardless of rating, all managers questioned, “How would thisreally work?” Several managers questioned whether models could simulate the connectivity between surface and groundwater to accurately quantify changes to instream flow. Others raised concerns that managed aquifer recharge violates the Alpine Decree and Nevada Water Law. Still others requested researchers consider alternatives that could work within the confines of current (2019) water law. Managers posed specific questions that should be considered when evaluating the potential for managed aquifer recharge. For example: What triggers implementation of managed aquifer recharge?How “high” or “low” must annual flows be to initiate managed aquifer recharge? When in the water year is this determined? Where exactly in the Carson Valley is managed aquiferre charge possible? For example, what areas away from the floodplain could ensure long-term storage? Can model simulations quantify potential benefits and consequences system-wide?Would this information support decision-making, such as permitting of additional supplemental groundwater rights? How are researchers going to address managers’ research questions? Managers’ perspectives help to validate the on-the-ground potential of particular strategies and further refine alternative management scenarios. For example, understanding that managers are concerned with oversaturated fields helps researchers to define conditions in the model, such as what defines a wet versus “too” wet type of year and where to focus irrigation for managed aquifer recharge. Incorporating these nuances provides more accurate quantification of the potential benefits and consequences for users across the basin. Modeling is underway to simulate managed aquifer recharge scenarios and explore basin-wide implications. Researchers and local water managers will convene to collaboratively review results and further assess whether this or other strategies could work under the confines of existing water law. Subsequent fact sheets will present these findings.

Nevada↗