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USGS2013

AMAP Assessment 2013: Arctic Ocean acidification

This assessment report presents the results of the 2013 AMAP Assessment of Arctic Ocean Acidification (AOA). This is the first such assessment dealing with AOA from an Arctic-wide perspective, and complements several assessments that AMAP has delivered over the past ten years concerning the effects of climate change on Arctic ecosystems and people. The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) is a group working under the Arctic Council. The Arctic Council Ministers have requested AMAP to: - produce integrated assessment reports on the status and trends of the conditions of the Arctic ecosystems; - identify possible causes for the changing conditions; - detect emerging problems, their possible causes, and the potential risk to Arctic ecosystems including indigenous peoples and other Arctic residents; and to - recommend actions required to reduce risks to Arctic ecosystems. This report provides the accessible scientific basis and validation for the statements and recommendations made in the Arctic Ocean Acidification Assessment Summary for Policy-makers that was delivered to Arctic Council Ministers at their meeting in Kiruna, Sweden in May 2011 and the related AMAP State of the Arctic Environment report Arctic Ocean Acidification 2013: An Overview . It includes extensive background data and references to the scientific literature, and details the sources for figures reproduced in the overview report. Whereas the Summary for Policy-makers report contains recommendations that focus mainly on policy-relevant actions concerned with addressing the consequences of AOA, the conclusions and recommendations presented in this report also cover issues of a more scientific nature, such as proposals for filling gaps in knowledge, and recommendations relevant to future monitoring and research work. The AOA assessment was conducted between 2010 and 2013 by an international group of over 60 experts. Lead authors were selected based on an open nomination process coordinated by AMAP. A similar process was used to select international experts who independently reviewed this report. Information contained in this report is fully references and based on first and foremost peer-reviewed and published results of research and monitoring undertaken since 2006. It also incorporates some new (unpublished) information from monitoring and research conducted according to well-established and documented national and international standards of quality assurance/quality control protocols. Care has been taken to ensure that no critical probability statements are based on non-peer-reviewed materials. Access to reliable and up-to-date information is essential for the development of science-based decision-making regarding ongoing changes in the Arctic and their global implications. The AOA assessment summary reports and films have therefore been developed specifically for policy-makers, summarizing the main findings of the AOA assessment. The AOA lead authors have confirmed that both this report and its derivative products accurately and fully reflect their scientific assessment. The AOA reports and the films are freely available from the AMAP Secretariat and on the AMAP website: www.amap.no, and their use for educational purposes is encouraged. AMAP would like to express its appreciation to all experts who have contributed their time, efforts and data, in particular the lead authors who coordinated the production of this report. Thanks are also due to the reviewers who contributed to the AOA peer-review process and provided valuable comments that helped to ensure the quality of the report. A list of the main contributors is included at the start of each chapter. The list is not comprehensive. Specifically, it does not include the many national institutes, laboratories and organizations, and their staff, which have been involved in various countries in AOA-related monitoring and research. Apologies, and no lesser thanks are given to any individuals unintentionally omitted from the list. The support from the Arctic countries and non-Arctic countries implementing research and monitoring in the Arctic is vital to the success of AMAP. The AMAP work is essentially based on ongoing activities within these countries, and the countries that provide the necessary support for most the experts involved in the preparation of the AMAP assessments. In particular, AMAP would like to acknowledge Norway for taking the lead-country role in this assessment and thank Canada, Norway, Sweden, USA and the Nordic Council of Ministers for their financial support to the AOA work. The AMAP Working Group is pleased to present its assessment to the Arctic Council and the international science community. Richard Bellerby (AOA assessment Chair) Russel Shearer (AMAP Chair) Lars-Otto Reiersen (AMAP Executive Secretary) Oslo, May 2013

Report↗
USGS2020

Spatial fingerprint of younger dryas cooling and warming in eastern North America

The Younger Dryas (YD, 12.9–11.7 ka) is the most recent, near-global interval of abrupt climate change with rates similar to modern global warming. Understanding the causes and biodiversity effects of YD climate changes requires determining the spatial fingerprints of past temperature changes. Here we build pollen-based and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether-based temperature reconstructions in eastern North America (ENA) to better understand deglacial temperature evolution. YD cooling was pronounced in the northeastern United States and muted in the north central United States. Florida sites warmed during the YD, while other southeastern sites maintained a relatively stable climate. This fingerprint is consistent with an intensified subtropical high during the YD and demonstrates that interhemispheric responses were more complex spatially in ENA than predicted by the bipolar seesaw model. Reduced-amplitude or antiphased millennial-scale temperature variability in the southeastern United States may support regional hotspots of biodiversity and endemism.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2021

Climate change is creating a mismatch between protected areas and suitable habitats for frogs and birds in Puerto Rico

Climate change is altering the spatial distribution of many species around the world. In response, we need to identify and protect suitable areas for a large proportion of the fauna so that they persist through time. This exercise must also evaluate the ability of existing protected areas to provide safe havens for species in the context of climate change. Here, we combined passive acoustic monitoring, semi-automatic species identification models, and species distribution models of 21 bird and frog species based on past (1980–1989), present (2005–2014), and future (2040–2060) climate scenarios to determine how species distributions relate to the current distribution of protected areas in Puerto Rico. Species detection/non-detection data were acquired across ~ 700 sampling sites. We developed always-suitable maps that characterized suitable habitats in all three time periods for each species and overlaid these maps to identify regions with high species co-occurrence. These distributions were then compared with the distribution of existing protected areas. We show that Puerto Rico is projected to become dryer by 2040–2060, and precipitation in the warmest quarter was among the most important variables affecting bird and frog distributions. A large portion of always-suitable areas (ASA) is outside of protected areas (> 80%), and the percent of protected areas that overlaps with always-suitable areas is larger for bird (75%) than frog (39%) species. Our results indicate that present protected areas will not suffice to safeguard bird and frog species under climate change; however, the establishment of larger protected areas, buffer zones, and connectivity between protected areas may allow species to find suitable niches to withstand environmental changes.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS1957

On the postglacial history of the Devils Lake Region, North Dakota

Devils and Stump lakes in eastern North Dakota have been diminishing in area more or less continuously since the land around them was settled in the 1880's. Desiccations similar to the current one have occurred at least once and possibly two or more times in the past and are indicated directly and indirectly by tree stumps recently uncovered as the lake water receded and by lacustrine deposits containing buried soils and vertebrate remains. The lake levels seem to respond in a very sensitive manner to slight climatic changes. Probably the present desiccation and certainly the ones in the past are the result of changes toward a drier and warmer climate. The first may have been synchronous with the Thermal Maximum. A high abandoned strand line and associated lacustrine deposits containing buried soils and vertebrate remains indicate at least one period in the postglacial past, possibly following the Thermal Maximum, that was wetter and cooler than the present. A second desiccation, more definitely established and based on the radiocarbon dating of a tree stump, occurred less than 700 years ago, possibly during the sixteenth century.

North Dakota↗
USGS2015

Comment on "Donders, T.H. 2014. Middle Holocene humidity increase in Florida: climate or sea-level? Quaternary Science Reviews 103:170-174."

Donders (2014) has recently proposed that the climate of Florida became progressively wetter over the past 5000 years in response to a marked strengthening of the El Niño regime. This reconstruction is largely based on a re-analysis of pollen records from regions north of Lake Okeechobee ( Fig. 1 ) using a new set of pollen transfer functions. Donders concluded that a latitudinal gradient in precipitation prevailed across Florida since the mid Holocene, but the overall trend was toward progressively wetter conditions from 5000 cal BP to the present. Donders (2014) also proposed that this climatic trend extended across South Florida despite contrary paleo-records from the Everglades. In particular he singled out the Northeast Shark River Slough (NESRS) record of Glaser et al. (2013) as an atypical local signal of paleo-environmental change that was biased by a misinterpretation of the ecology of pine and Amaranthaceae (Amaranth family). In response to this direct critique of our paleo-environmental interpretation, we wish to point out that: Our interpretation of the NESRS sedimentary sequence (site 4, Fig. 1 A) was based on multiple lines of evidence that all indicate a shift from wetter to drier (i.e. less wet) conditions that occurred after 2800 cal BP. A similar climatic shift from wetter to less wet conditions was reported for this time interval from other sites in the Everglades ( Willard et al., 2006 and Willard and Bernhardt, 2011 ) and also from the Caribbean region to the east ( Hodell et al., 1991 , Hodell et al., 1995 and Higuera-Gundy et al., 1999 ). The NESRS site is located in an area where runoff collected from a 10,000 km 2 wetland prior to 1900 AD when most of the drainage from the Everglades was channeled to the sea through the narrow Shark River Slough. The sedimentary sequence at the NESRS site should therefore contain an integrated record of hydrological change across the pre-historical Everglades ( Glaser et al., 2012 ). In addition this essentially non-forested wetland is well suited to accumulate a representative sample of the regional pollen rain in its sediments (e.g. Jaccobson and Bradshaw, 1981 and Prentice, 1985 ).

Florida↗
USGS2017

Beyond exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity: A response based ecological framework to assess species climate change vulnerability

As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integrate multiple sources of information by utilizing a framework that distinguishes factors relevant to species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, this framework was originally developed for human systems, and its use to evaluate species vulnerability has serious practical and theoretical limitations. By instead defining vulnerability as the degree to which a species is unable to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., toleration of projected changes, migration to new climate-compatible areas, enduring in microrefugia, and evolutionary adaptation), we can bring VAs into the realm of ecological science without applying borrowed abstract concepts that have consistently challenged species-centric research and management. This response-based framework to assess species vulnerability to climate change allows better integration of relevant ecological data and past research, yielding results with much clearer implications for conservation and research prioritization.

Climate Change Responses↗
USGS2014

Retrospective analysis of associations between water quality and toxic blooms of golden alga ( Prymnesium parvum ) in Texas reservoirs: Implications for understanding dispersal mechanisms and impacts of climate change

Toxic blooms of golden alga (GA, Prymnesium parvum ) in Texas typically occur in winter or early spring. In North America, they were first reported in Texas in the 1980s, and a marked range expansion occurred in 2001. Although there is concern about the influence of climate change on the future distribution of GA, factors responsible for past dispersals remain uncertain. To better understand the factors that influence toxic bloom dispersal in reservoirs, this study characterized reservoir water quality associated with toxic GA blooms since 2001, and examined trends in water quality during a 20-year period bracketing the 2001 expansion. Archived data were analyzed for six impacted and six nonimpacted reservoirs from two major Texas basins: Brazos River and Colorado River. Data were simplified for analysis by pooling spatially (across sampling stations) and temporally (winter, December-February) within reservoirs and generating depth-corrected (1 m) monthly values. Classification tree analysis [period of record (POR), 2001-2010] using salinity-associated variables (specific conductance, chloride, sulfate), dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, temperature, total hardness, potassium, nitrate+nitrite, and total phosphorus indicated that salinity best predicts the toxic bloom occurrence. Minimum estimated salinities for toxic bloom formation were 0.59 and 1.02 psu in Brazos and Colorado River reservoirs, respectively. Principal component analysis (POR, 2001-2010) indicated that GA habitat is best defined by higher salinity relative to nonimpacted reservoirs, with winter DO and pH also being slightly higher and winter temperature slightly lower in impacted reservoirs. Trend analysis, however, did not reveal monotonic changes in winter water quality of GA-impacted reservoirs during the 20-year period (1991-2010) bracketing the 2001 dispersal. Therefore, whereas minimum levels of salinity are required for GA establishment and toxic blooms in Texas reservoirs, the lack of trends in water quality suggests that conditions favorable for toxic blooms pre-date the 2001 expansion. These observations are consistent with a climate change-independent scenario of past GA dispersals in Texas reservoirs driven by novel introductions into pre-existing favorable habitat. Reports of latent GA populations in certain nonimpacted reservoirs, however, provide a plausible scenario of future dispersals characterized by prolonged periods between colonization and toxic bloom development and driven by changes in water quality, natural, or anthropogenic.

Harmful Algae↗
USGS2019

Variability in shelf sedimentation in response to fluvial sediment supply and coastal erosion over the past 1,000 years in Monterey Bay, CA, United States

Continental shelf environments are uniquely situated to capture some of the most dynamic processes on Earth including climatic variability and anthropogenic modifications to coastal systems. Understanding how these processes have affected sediment delivery and accumulation on the shelf in the past may provide insight into potential changes in the future. To address this, we investigated shelf sedimentation within Monterey Bay, California. Sediment cores were collected from four locations throughout the bay to capture both the modern and late Holocene sedimentological record using grain size analysis, and sediment chronologies determined from 210 Pb, 137 Cs, and 14 C. From the grain size results we focused on the total percent sand, and established a Littoral Sand Fraction (LSF) index to assess sediment contribution from the littoral zone as a result coastal erosion. Grain size results from the multicores consistently showed an increase in sand over the past several decades (post 1970s). For the cores located within the bay proximal to three major rivers, the increase in sand corresponded to a general increase in the LSF over the same period. We attributed these trends to increased sediment contributions to the shelf due to accelerated coastal erosion in the region. This accelerated coastal erosion was likely the combined result of dam construction in the mid-twentieth century that limited fluvial supply to the coast, and a shift in climate toward wetter, stormier period. Applying these sediment characteristics back over the past ∼1,000 years we found that dry climatic periods resulted in deposits that were limited in total sand but enriched in littoral material suggesting elevated coastal erosion. During wet periods deposits were enriched in total sand but limited in littoral sand suggesting elevated fluvial supply and low erosion. Compared to the late Holocene record, the previous several decades represent a shift to a new regime, uncharacteristic of deposits over the past millennia, highlighting the impact humans have had on shelf sedimentation.

California↗
USGS1989

Water resources in the twenty-first century; a study of the implications of climate uncertainty

The interactions of the water resources on and within the surface of the Earth with the atmosphere that surrounds it are exceedingly complex. Increased uncertainty can be attached to the availability of water of usable quality in the 21st century, therefore, because of potential anthropogenic changes in the global climate system. For the U.S. Geological Survey to continue to fulfill its mission with respect to assessing the Nation's water resources, an expanded program to study the hydrologic implications of climate uncertainty will be required. The goal for this program is to develop knowledge and information concerning the potential water-resources implications for the United States of uncertainties in climate that may result from both anthropogenic and natural changes of the Earth's atmosphere. Like most past and current water-resources programs of the Geological Survey, the climate-uncertainty program should be composed of three elements: (1) research, (2) data collection, and (3) interpretive studies. However, unlike most other programs, the climate-uncertainty program necessarily will be dominated by its research component during its early years. Critical new concerns to be addressed by the research component are (1) areal estimates of evapotranspiration, (2) hydrologic resolution within atmospheric (climatic) models at the global scale and at mesoscales, (3) linkages between hydrology and climatology, and (4) methodology for the design of data networks that will help to track the impacts of climate change on water resources. Other ongoing activities in U.S. Geological Survey research programs will be enhanced to make them more compatible with climate-uncertainty research needs. The existing hydrologic data base of the Geological Survey serves as a key element in assessing hydrologic and climatologic change. However, this data base has evolved in response to other needs for hydrologic information and probably is not as sensitive to climate change as is desirable. Therefore, as measurement and network-design methodologies are improved to account for climate-change potential, new data-collection activities will be added to the existing programs. One particular area of data-collection concern pertains to the phenomenon of evapotranspiration. Interpretive studies of the hydrologic implications of climate uncertainty will be initiated by establishing several studies at the river-basin scale in diverse hydroclimatic and demographic settings. These studies will serve as tests of the existing methodologies for studying the impacts of climate change and also will help to define subsequent research priorities. A prototype for these studies was initiated in early 1988 in the Delaware River basin.

Circular↗
USGS2018

A 3,000‐year lag between the geological and ecological shutdown of Florida's coral reefs

The global‐scale degradation of coral reefs has reached a critical threshold wherein further declines threaten both ecological functionality and the persistence of reef structure. Geological records can provide valuable insights into the long‐term controls on reef development that may be key to solving the modern coral‐reef crisis. Our analyses of new and existing coral‐reef cores from throughout the Florida Keys reef tract (FKRT) revealed significant spatial and temporal variability in reef development during the Holocene. Whereas maximum Holocene reef thickness in the Dry Tortugas was comparable to elsewhere in the western Atlantic, most of Florida's reefs had relatively thin accumulations of Holocene reef framework. During periods of active reef development, average reef accretion rates were similar throughout the FKRT at ~3 m/ky. The spatial variability in reef thickness was instead driven by differences in the duration of reef development. Reef accretion declined significantly from ~6,000 years ago to present, and by ~3,000 years ago, the majority of the FKRT was geologically senescent. Although sea level influenced the development of Florida's reefs, it was not the ultimate driver of reef demise. Instead, we demonstrate that the timing of reef senescence was modulated by subregional hydrographic variability, and hypothesize that climatic cooling was the ultimate cause of reef shutdown. The senescence of the FKRT left the ecosystem balanced at a delicate tipping point at which a veneer of living coral was the only barrier to reef erosion. Modern climate change and other anthropogenic disturbances have now pushed many reefs past that critical threshold and into a novel ecosystem state, in which reef structures built over millennia could soon be lost. The dominant role of climate in the development of the FKRT over timescales of decades to millennia highlights the potential vulnerability of both geological and ecological reef processes to anthropogenic climate change.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2011

Climate, Fire and Geology in the Convergence of Mediterranean-type Climate Ecosystems

Integrating Climate, Fire and Geology in a Fire-prone World Fire challenges the long-standing hegemony of ecology, biogeography and paleoecology that climate and soils are sufficient to explain the origin and distribution of plant species. In a world where half of the land surface is fire-prone (Krawchuk et al . 2009), understanding the past and predicting the future requires a close integration of climate, fire and geology. The dogma that fire is an anthropogenic phenomenon of little use in understanding paleoecology (Axelrod 1980, 1989), or merely incidental to vegetation development (Hopper 2009), is rapidly being replaced with a better understanding of paleofire's impact on land plant evolution (Scott 2000; Pausas & Keeley 2009). Attempts to model future global vegetation patterns have been demonstrated to be inadequate without including both natural and anthropogenic fire regimes (Bond et al . 2005). Bond and Keeley (2005) outlined the conundrum posed by alternative explanations for the present distribution of vegetation and assembly of communities. Classical explanations have invoked resource-based mechanisms that are driven by climate and soils. There are ecosystems where resource-based mechanisms may be sufficient, but on many seasonally dry landscapes ecosystem processes such as fire play a major role in the organization and evolution of vegetation.

Book chapter↗
USGS2016

Detecting sea-level hazards: Simple regression-based methods for calculating the acceleration of sea level

This report documents the development of statistical tools used to quantify the hazard presented by the response of sea-level elevation to natural or anthropogenic changes in climate and ocean circulation. A hazard is a physical process (or processes) that, when combined with vulnerability (or susceptibility to the hazard), results in risk. This study presents the development and comparison of new and existing sea-level analysis methods, exploration of the strengths and weaknesses of the methods using synthetic time series, and when appropriate, synthesis of the application of the method to observed sea-level time series. These reports are intended to enhance material presented in peer-reviewed journal articles where it is not always possible to provide the level of detail that might be necessary to fully support or recreate published results. The purpose of this report is to document and compare three simple methodologies that have previously been used to provide estimates with associated errors of the acceleration of sea-level elevation. These techniques have been used by coastal scientists and planners in assessing coastal risk over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Because relative sea-level (SL) elevation time series contain energetic fluctuations at many time scales, extracting what can be relatively small rate and acceleration signals (along with estimates of the error) from much larger “noise” has proven to be both difficult and controversial. Acceleration is a preferred measure of SL response to recent changes in the Earth’s climate because over time scales of 100 years or less slow vertical land motions (such as glacial isostatic adjustment) contribute only to the linear signal and not to acceleration, thus reducing the complexity of the analysis. Hence acceleration is useful if the goal of a study is to characterize and quantify the hazard associated with the changing relative elevation of water with respect to land on decadal time scales. Although in some cases it may be necessary to determine the cause of relative sea level rise, as a first step, it is important to accurately estimate the magnitude of the threat. Most researchers agree that global sea level (GSL) rose persistently through much of the 20th century at about 1.5–2.0 millimeters per year (mm/yr). There is far less agreement about whether the rate of sea-level rise (SLR) is increasing (that is, an acceleration in SL). Recent studies, and most of their predecessors, use tide gage data to quantify SL acceleration, A SL (t). In the current study, three techniques were used to calculate acceleration from tide gage data, and of those examined, it was determined that the two techniques based on sliding a regression window through the time series are more robust compared to the technique that fits a single quadratic form to the entire time series, particularly if there is temporal variation in the magnitude of the acceleration. The single-fit quadratic regression method has been the most commonly used technique in determining acceleration in tide gage data. The inability of the single-fit method to account for time-varying acceleration may explain some of the inconsistent findings between investigators. Properly quantifying A SL (t) from field measurements is of particular importance in evaluating numerical models of past, present, and future SLR resulting from anticipated climate change.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Sources and sinks of carbon in boreal ecosystems of interior Alaska: a review

Boreal regions store large quantities of carbon but are increasingly vulnerable to carbon loss due to disturbance and climate warming. The boreal region, underlain by discontinuous permafrost, presents a challenging landscape for itemizing current and potential carbon sources and sinks in the boreal soil and vegetation. The roles of fire, forest succession, and the presence (or absence) of permafrost on carbon cycle, vegetation, and hydrologic processes have been the focus of multidisciplinary research in this area for the past 20 years. However, projections of a warming future climate, an increase in fire severity and extent, and the potential degradation of permafrost could lead to major landscape process changes over the next 20 to 50 years. This provides a major challenge for predicting how the interplay between land management activities and impacts of climate warming will affect carbon sources and sinks in Interior Alaska. To assist land managers in adapting and managing for potential changes in the Interior Alaska carbon cycle we developed this review paper incorporating an overview of the climate, ecosystem processes, vegetation types, and soil regimes in Interior Alaska with a focus on ramifications for the carbon cycle. Our objective is to provide a synthesis of the most current carbon storage estimates and measurements to support policy and land management decisions on how to best manage carbon sources and sinks in Interior Alaska. To support this we have surveyed relevant peer reviewed estimates of carbon stocks in aboveground and belowground biomass for Interior Alaska boreal ecosystems. We have also summarized methane and carbon dioxide fluxes from the same ecosystems. These data have been converted into the same units to facilitate comparison across ecosystem compartments. We identify potential changes in the carbon cycle with climate change and human disturbance including how compounding disturbances can affect the boreal system. Finally, we provide recommendations to address the challenges facing land managers in efforts to manage carbon cycle processes. The results of this study can be used for carbon cycle management in other locations within the boreal biome which encompass a broad distribution from 45° to 83° north.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Climatic correlates of white pine blister rust infection in whitebark pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Whitebark pine, a foundation species at tree line in the Western U.S. and Canada, has declined due to native mountain pine beetle epidemics, wildfire, and white pine blister rust. These declines are concerning for the multitude of ecosystem and human benefits provided by this species. Understanding climatic correlates associated with spread is needed to successfully manage impacts from forest pathogens. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem since 2000 mountain pine beetles have killed 75 percent of the mature cone-bearing trees, and 40.9 percent of monitored trees have been infected with white pine blister rust. We identified models of white pine blister rust infection that indicate an August and September interaction between relative humidity and temperature were better predictors of white pine blister rust infection in whitebark pine than location and site characteristics in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. The climate conditions conducive to white pine blister rust occur throughout the ecosystem, but larger trees in relatively warm and humid conditions were more likely to be infected between 2000 and 2018. We mapped the infection probability over the past two decades to identify coarse-scale patterns of climate conditions conducive to white pine blister rust infection in whitebark pine.

Wyoming↗
USGS2019

La Niña-driven flooding in the Indo-Pacific warm pool during the past millennium

Extreme precipitation events are one of the most consequential components of climate change for society. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of precipitation variability in the tropics and causes severe flooding and drought in many socioeconomically vulnerable regions. It remains unclear how tropical rainfall extremes and ENSO are changing in response to anthropogenic forcing, demanding that we investigate the relationships between precipitation, ENSO, and external forcing in the past. Lake sediment records have provided benchmark records of extreme flood events from the eastern tropical Pacific, where paleofloods have been interpreted to reflect El Niño events during the last millennium. However, the connections between flooding and ENSO variability in this region are uncertain, and the eastern Pacific can only capture precipitation events driven by El Niño, not La Niña. Thus, it is unclear how the ENSO system and tropical rainfall extremes have changed in the recent past. Here, we reconstruct flood events during the past millennium using a lake sediment record from East Java, Indonesia, which can provide insight into flooding driven by La Niña. We detect flood frequency variations in the western tropical Pacific that are highly coherent with records from the eastern part of the basin over the past millennium. Our findings demonstrate that heavy rainfall and flooding occurs more frequently on both sides of the tropical Pacific during periods of warmer Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures, implying that ENSO-driven rainfall extremes could intensify in the near future.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS2017

Application of paleoecology to ecosystem restoration: A case study from south Florida’s estuaries

Paleoecological analyses of biotic assemblages from cores collected throughout south Florida’s estuaries indicate gradually increasing salinities over approximately the last 2000 years, consistent with rising sea level. Around the beginning of the twentieth century these gradual patterns of change began to shift, corresponding to the beginning of human alteration of the environment via canal construction, railroad construction and other land use changes. Between 1950 and 1960, at a time of significant construction of water management structures another distinctive shift in the biological assemblages occurred. Analysis of the assemblages provides essential information on long-term patterns of change in the estuaries and provides a basis for predicting future trajectories of change. Paleosalinity estimates derived from the cores are providing input to linear regression models to determine related freshwater flow into the estuaries of south Florida. These analyses are being used to help establish performance measures and targets for the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration, established following an Act of Congress in 2000. Restoration of south Florida’s ecosystems is slated to be a 30–50 year effort that will require detailed knowledge of past decadal to centennial-scale changes in climate, freshwater flow and salinity. This historical perspective provides information that allows land managers to set realistic and sustainable goals for restoration, and provides insight into the potential response of south Florida’s ecosystem to various future scenarios of global change.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Twentieth century extreme precipitation detected in a high-resolution, coastal lake-sediment record from California

California faces increasing economic and societal risks from extreme precipitation and flooding associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) under projected twenty-first century climate warming. Lake sediments can retain signals of past extreme precipitation events, allowing reconstructions beyond the period of instrumental records. Here, we calibrate AR-related extreme precipitation from the last century to proxy data from lake sediments collected in the latitudinal zone of the highest frequency landfall for modern ARs in California. Excursions in erosional proxy data (Ti/Al) are positively and significantly correlated (r median = 0.45, p median = 0.04) with modern records of integrated vapor transport (IVT, kg m −1 s −1 ), a key metric of AR intensity, using correlations that incorporate age-model uncertainty. Despite the land-use change near the study site, the data suggest intense and long-lasting AR storms are identifiable in this sedimentary record. These results allow conservative inferences concerning past extreme hydrology at this site.

California↗
USGS2024

Revisiting the physical processes controlling the tropical atmospheric circulation changes during the Mid-Piacenzian Warm Period

The Mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (MPWP; 3.0–3.3 Ma), a warm geological period about three million years ago, has been deemed as a good past analog for understanding the current and future climate change. Based on 12 climate model outputs from Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), we investigate tropical atmospheric circulation (TAC) changes under the warm MPWP and associated underlying mechanisms by diagnosing both atmospheric static stability and diabatic processes. Our findings underscore the advantage of analyzing atmospheric diabatic processes in elucidating seasonal variations of TAC compared to static stability assessments. Specifically, by diagnosing alterations in diabatic processes, we achieve a quantitative understanding and explanation the following TAC changes (incl. Strength and edge) during the MPWP: the weakened (annual, DJF, JJA) Northern Hemisphere and (DJF) Southern Hemisphere Hadley circulation (HC), reduced (annual, DJF) Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) and enhanced (annual, JJA) Southern Hemisphere HC and (JJA) PWC, and westward shifted (annual, DJF, JJA) PWC. We further addressed that the increasing bulk subtropical static stability and/or decreasing vertical shear of subtropical zonal wind - two crucial control factors for changes in subtropical baroclinicity - may promote HC widening, and vice versa. Consequently, our study of spatial diabatic heating and cooling, corresponding to upward and downward motions within the TAC, respectively, provides a new perspective for understanding the processes controlling seasonal TAC changes in response to surface warming.

Quaternary International↗