USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Biological Conservation”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23Linked to original sources
USGS2012

Effects of a non-native biocontrol weevil, Larinus planus, and other emerging threats on populations of the federally threatened Pitcher's thistle, Cirsium pitcheri

Larinus planus Frabicius (Curculionidae), is a seed-eating weevil that was inadvertently introduced into the US and was subsequently distributed in the US and Canada for the control of noxious thistle species of rangelands. It has been detected recently in the federally threatened Pitcher's thistle (Cirsium pitcheri). We assayed weevil damage in a natural population of Pitcher's thistle at Whitefish Dunes State Park, Door County, WI and quantified the impact on fecundity. We then estimated the impact of this introduced weevil and other emerging threats on two natural, uninvaded populations of Pitcher's thistle for which we have long-term demographic data for 16 yr (Wilderness State Park, Emmet County, MI) and 23 yr (Miller High Dunes, Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, Porter County, IN). We used transition matrices to determine growth rates and project the potential effects of weevil damage, inbreeding, goldfinch predation, and vegetative succession on Pitcher's thistle population viability. Based on our models, weevil seed predation reduced population growth rate by 10–12%, but this reduction was enough to reduce time to extinction from 24 yr to 13 yr and 8 yr to 5 yr in the MI and IN population, respectively. This impact is particularly severe, given most populations of Pitcher's thistle throughout its range hover near or below replacement. This is the first report of unanticipated ecological impacts from a biocontrol agent on natural populations of Cirsium pitcheri.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2013

Localized extinction of an arboreal desert lizard caused by habitat fragmentation

We adopted a species’ perspective for predicting extinction risk in a small, endemic, and strictly scansorial lizard ( Urosaurus nigricaudus ), in an old (∼60 year) and highly fragmented (8% habitat remaining) agricultural landscape from the Sonoran Desert, Mexico. We genotyped 10 microsatellite loci in 280 individuals from 11 populations in fragmented and continuous habitat. Individual dispersal was restricted to less than 400 m, according to analyses of spatial autocorrelation and spatially explicit Bayesian assignment methods. Within this scale, continuous areas and narrow washes with native vegetation allowed high levels of gene flow over tens of kilometers. In the absence of the native vegetation, cleared areas and highways were identified as partial barriers. In contrast, outside the scale of dispersal, cleared areas behaved as complete barriers, and surveys corroborated the species went extinct after a few decades in all small (less than 45 ha), isolated habitat fragments. No evidence for significant loss of genetic diversity was found, but results suggested fragmentation increased the spatial scale of movements, relatedness, genetic structure, and potentially affected sex-biased dispersal. A plausible threshold of individual dispersal predicted only 23% of all fragments in the landscape were linked with migration from continuous habitat, while complete barriers isolated the majority of fragments. Our study suggested limited dispersal, coupled with an inability to use a homogeneous and hostile matrix without vegetation and shade, could result in frequent time-delayed extinctions of small ectotherms in highly fragmented desert landscapes, particularly considering an increase in the risk of overheating and a decrease in dispersal potential induced by global warming.

Sonoran Desert↗
USGS2013

Response of palila and other subalpine Hawaiian forest bird species to prolonged drought and habitat degradation by feral ungulates

Extinction has claimed half of all historically-known Hawaiian passerines, and today many extant species are increasingly threatened due to the combined effects of invasive species and climate change. Habitat disturbance has affected populations of feeding specialists most profoundly, and our results indicate that specialists continue to be most vulnerable, although even some abundant, introduced, generalist species also may be affected. Surveys of passerines during 1998–2011 in subalpine woodland habitat on Mauna Kea Volcano, Island of Hawai′i, revealed that the abundance of the critically endangered palila ( Loxioides bailleui ), a seed specialist, declined by 79% after 2003. The ′akiapōlā′au ( Hemignathus munroi ), an endangered specialist insectivore, was not detected in the survey area after 1998. The Hawai′i ′amakihi ( Hemignathus virens virens ), a generalist feeder and the most abundant species on Mauna Kea, was the only native species to maintain a stable population. The Japanese white-eye ( Zosterops japonicus ), a well-entrenched generalist and one of the three most common introduced species, declined. Drought prevailed in 74% of months during 2000–2011, and dry conditions contributed to the recent decline of the palila by reducing the annual māmane ( Sophora chrysophylla ) seed pod crop, which influences palila breeding and survival. Sustained browsing by introduced ungulates also lowered habitat carrying capacity, and their elimination should reduce the effects of drought and promote forest restoration. Our results illustrate how the feeding ecology of a species can influence its response to interacting environmental perturbations, and they underscore the value of long-term monitoring to detect population trends of sensitive species.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2013

Responses of riparian reptile communities to damming and urbanization

Various anthropogenic pressures, including habitat loss, threaten reptile populations worldwide. Riparian zones are critical habitat for many reptile species, but these habitats are also frequently modified by anthropogenic activities. Our study investigated the effects of two riparian habitat modifications-damming and urbanization-on overall and species-specific reptile occupancy patterns. We used time-constrained search techniques to compile encounter histories for 28 reptile species at 21 different sites along the Broad and Pacolet Rivers of South Carolina. Using a hierarchical Bayesian analysis, we modeled reptile occupancy responses to a site's distance upstream from dam, distance downstream from dam, and percent urban land use. The mean occupancy response by the reptile community indicated that reptile occupancy and species richness were maximized when sites were farther upstream from dams. Species-specific occupancy estimates showed a similar trend of lower occupancy immediately upstream from dams. Although the mean occupancy response of the reptile community was positively related to distance downstream from dams, the occupancy response to distance downstream varied among species. Percent urban land use had little effect on the occupancy response of the reptile community or individual species. Our results indicate that the conditions of impoundments and subsequent degradation of the riparian zones upstream from dams may not provide suitable habitat for a number of reptile species.

North Carolina;South Carolina↗
USGS2013

Disease in a dynamic landscape: host behavior and wildfire reduce amphibian chytrid infection

Disturbances are often expected to magnify effects of disease, but these effects may depend on the ecology, behavior, and life history of both hosts and pathogens. In many ecosystems, wildfire is the dominant natural disturbance and thus could directly or indirectly affect dynamics of many diseases. To determine how probability of infection by the aquatic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) varies relative to habitat use by individuals, wildfire, and host characteristics, we sampled 404 boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ) across Glacier National Park, Montana (USA). Bd causes chytridiomycosis, an emerging infectious disease linked with widespread amphibian declines, including the boreal toad. Probability of infection was similar for females and the combined group of males and juveniles. However, only 9% of terrestrial toads were infected compared to >30% of aquatic toads, and toads captured in recently burned areas were half as likely to be infected as toads in unburned areas. We suspect these large differences in infection reflect habitat choices by individuals that affect pathogen exposure and persistence, especially in burned forests where warm, arid conditions could limit Bd growth. Our results show that natural disturbances such as wildfire and the resulting diverse habitats can influence infection across large landscapes, potentially maintaining local refuges and host behaviors that facilitate evolution of disease resistance.

Montana↗
USGS2013

Rediscovering traditional vegetation management in preserves: trading experiences between cultures and continents

Land managers are grappling with massive changes in vegetation structure, particularly in protected areas formerly subjected to fire and grazing. The objective of this review was to compare notes on the historical and current management of ecosystems around the world (especially in wet to dry grasslands in the Americas, Australia, Africa, Europe and Asia) with respect to the usage of fire, grazing and cutting to reduce dominance and support the biodiversity of rare species. This review suggests that former disturbances, which are now often lost, may have once kept tall vegetation from pushing out rarer subdominant species. In cases where prehistoric biodiversity depended on fire or large ungulate grazing, traditional agricultural and indigenous practices may have carried biodiversity forward to historical times by mimicking pre-cultural disturbances (e.g., lightning fire and bison grazing). Ironically, biodiversity related to species richness, landscape heterogeneity and function may decline in preserves, especially if traditional management once maintained this biodiversity. Managers can benefit from a cross-continental comparison of the full arsenal of management techniques used to control encroaching vegetation.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2013

Human-caused mortality influences spatial population dynamics: pumas in landscapes with varying mortality risks

An understanding of how stressors affect dispersal attributes and the contribution of local populations to multi-population dynamics are of immediate value to basic and applied ecology. Puma (Puma concolor) populations are expected to be influenced by inter-population movements and susceptible to human-induced source–sink dynamics. Using long-term datasets we quantified the contribution of two puma populations to operationally define them as sources or sinks. The puma population in the Northern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (NGYE) was largely insulated from human-induced mortality by Yellowstone National Park. Pumas in the western Montana Garnet Mountain system were exposed to greater human-induced mortality, which changed over the study due to the closure of a 915 km 2 area to hunting. The NGYE’s population growth depended on inter-population movements, as did its ability to act as a source to the larger region. The heavily hunted Garnet area was a sink with a declining population until the hunting closure, after which it became a source with positive intrinsic growth and a 16× increase in emigration. We also examined the spatial and temporal characteristics of individual dispersal attributes (emigration, dispersal distance, establishment success) of subadult pumas (N = 126). Human-caused mortality was found to negatively impact all three dispersal components. Our results demonstrate the influence of human-induced mortality on not only within population vital rates, but also inter-population vital rates, affecting the magnitude and mechanisms of local population’s contribution to the larger metapopulation.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2013

To the editor: Reply confuses newsprint with media

“Is Science in Danger of Sanctifying the Wolf” (Mech, 2012), contends that some scientists have claimed that wolf (Canis lupus) restoration has led to many ecological benefits lower in the food chain but that other scientists have questioned the evidence for those claims. Furthermore, my article claims that “the media become complicit [in promoting positive studies about wolves] by immediately publicizing such studies (Table 1)….” Dr. Bruskotter’s letter (Bruskotter, 2012) contends that Houston et al. (2010) refute that statement. However, Houston et al. (2010) covered only newsprint, including many local newspapers dating back to 1999 before most of the scientific articles I mentioned were published. My article said nothing about newsprint or news media. It stated “media” which of course includes radio, TV, blogs, websites, magazines, social media, etc. These types of media reach a wider and often different audience than newsprint. The Houston et al. (2010)analysis included none of these latter types of media so does not refute my statements.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2013

White-nose syndrome is likely to extirpate the endangered Indiana bat over large parts of its range

White-nose syndrome, a novel fungal pathogen spreading quickly through cave-hibernating bat species in east and central North America, is responsible for killing millions of bats. We developed a stochastic, stage-based population model to forecast the population dynamics of the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) subject to white-nose syndrome. Our population model explicitly incorporated environmentally imposed annual variability in survival and reproductive rates and demographic stochasticity in predictions of extinction. With observed rates of disease spread, >90% of wintering populations were predicted to experience white-nose syndrome within 20 years, causing the proportion of populations at the quasi-extinction threshold of less than 250 females to increase by 33.9% over 50 years. At the species’ lowest median population level, ca. year 2022, we predicted 13.7% of the initial population to remain, totaling 28,958 females (95% CI = 13,330; 92,335). By 2022, only 12 of the initial 52 wintering populations were expected to possess wintering populations of >250 females. If the species can acquire immunity to the disease, we predict 3.7% of wintering populations to be above 250 females after 50 years (year 2057) after a 69% decline in abundance (from 210,741 to 64,768 [95% CI = 49,386; 85,360] females). At the nadir of projections, we predicted regional quasi-extirpation of wintering populations in 2 of 4 Recovery Units while in a third region, where the species is currently most abundant, >95% of the wintering populations were predicted to be below 250 females. Our modeling suggests white-nose syndrome is capable of bringing about severe numerical reduction in population size and local and regional extirpation of the Indiana bat.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2014

Normative standards for land use in Vermont: Implications for biodiversity

The conversion of natural lands to developed uses poses a great threat to global terrestrial biodiversity. Natural resource managers, tasked with managing wildlife as a public trust, require techniques for predicting how much and where wildlife habitat is likely to be converted in the future. Here, we develop a methodology to estimate the “social carrying capacity for development” – SK d – for 251 towns across the state of Vermont, USA. SK d represents town residents’ minimum acceptable human population size and level of development within town boundaries. To estimate SK d across towns within the state of Vermont (USA), as well as the average state-wide SK d , we administered a visual preference survey ( n = 1505 responses) to Vermont residents, and asked respondents to rate alternative landuse scenarios in a fictional Vermont town on a scale of +4 (highly acceptable) to −4 (highly unacceptable). We additionally collected demographic data such as age and income, as well as ancillary information such as participation in town-planning meetings and location of residence. We used model selection and AIC to fit a cubic function to the response data, allowing us to estimate SK d at a town scale based on town demographic characteristics. On average, Vermonters had a SK d of 9.1% development on the landscape; this estimate is 68% higher than year 2000 levels for development (5.4%). Respondents indicated that management action to curb development was appropriate at 9.4% development (roughly the statewide SK d average). Management by local, regional, and state levels were considered acceptable for curbing development while federal level management of development was considered unacceptable. Given a scenario where development levels were at SK d , we predicted a 16,753 km 2 reduction in forested land (−11.16%) and a 1038 km 2 reduction in farmland (−60.45%). Such changes would dramatically alter biodiversity patterns state-wide. In a companion paper, we estimate how these changes would affect the distribution of wildlife species.

Vermont↗
USGS2014

Acceptability of residential development in a regional landscape: Potential effects on wildlife occupancy patterns

The conversion of natural lands to developed uses may pose the single greatest human threat to global terrestrial biodiversity. Continued human growth and development over the next century will further exacerbate these effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Natural resource managers are tasked with managing wildlife as a public trust, yet often have little say in land use decisions. Generally speaking, decision makers could benefit from an understanding of what different regulations mean in terms of wildlife distribution. In a previous paper ( Bettigole et al., 2013 ), we surveyed town residents throughout Vermont to measure how respondents feel about a range of development levels within their town boundaries. We estimated the “social carrying capacity for development” – or SK d – for 251 towns in Vermont. SK d provides an estimate of the level of developed land cover classes that town residents deem “acceptable” within their town boundaries. In this paper, we design a framework for linking the town-specific SK d estimates with the wildlife distribution patterns for three wide-ranging mammalian species: American black bear ( Ursus americanus ), fisher ( Martes pennanti ), and bobcat ( Lynx rufus ). We simulated landscape conditions at SK d for each town in Vermont, and then used existing occupancy models for the three target species to spatially map and compare occupancy rates in the baseline year 2000 with occupancy rates at SK d . With nearly 90% of Vermont towns willing to increase developed landcover classes within town boundaries compared to baseline levels, significant state-wide changes in occupancy rates were predicted for all three focal species. Average occupancy rates declined by −15.9% and −3.1% for black bear and bobcats, respectively. Average occupancy rates for fisher increased by 9.0%. This study provides a method for linking development standards within a town with wildlife occurrence. Across towns, the methodology spatially identifies areas that may be at risk of future development, as well as identifying areas where wildlife distribution patterns may face future change as a result of increased human population growth and development.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2014

Predicting impacts of future human population growth and development on occupancy rates of forest-dependent birds

Forest loss and fragmentation are among the largest threats to forest-dwelling wildlife species today, and projected increases in human population growth are expected to increase these threats in the next century. We combined spatially-explicit growth models with wildlife distribution models to predict the effects of human development on 5 forest-dependent bird species in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts, USA. We used single-species occupancy models to derive the probability of occupancy for each species across the study area in the years 2000 and 2050. Over half a million new housing units were predicted to be added to the landscape. The maximum change in housing density was nearly 30 houses per hectare; however, 30% of the towns in the study area were projected to add less than 1 housing unit per hectare. In the face of predicted human growth, the overall occupancy of each species decreased by as much as 38% (ranging from 19% to 38% declines in the worst-case scenario) in the year 2050. These declines were greater outside of protected areas than within protected lands. Ninety-seven percent of towns experienced some decline in species occupancy within their borders, highlighting the value of spatially-explicit models. The mean decrease in occupancy probability within towns ranged from 3% for hairy woodpecker to 8% for ovenbird and hermit thrush. Reductions in occupancy probability occurred on the perimeters of cities and towns where exurban development is predicted to increase in the study area. This spatial approach to wildlife planning provides data to evaluate trade-offs between development scenarios and forest-dependent wildlife species.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2014

Climatic variation and tortoise survival: has a desert species met its match?

While demographic changes in short-lived species may be observed relatively quickly in response to climate changes, measuring population responses of long-lived species requires long-term studies that are not always available. We analyzed data from a population of threatened Agassiz’s desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) at a 2.59 km 2 study plot in the Sonoran Desert ecosystem of Joshua Tree National Park, California, USA from 1978 to 2012 to examine variation in apparent survival and demography in this long-lived species. Transect-based, mark-recapture surveys were conducted in 10 of those years to locate living and dead tortoises. Previous modeling suggested that this area would become unsuitable as tortoise habitat under a warming and drying climate scenario. Estimated adult population size declined greatly from 1996 to 2012. The population appeared to have high apparent survival from 1978 to 1996 but apparent survival decreased from 1997 to 2002, concurrent with persistent drought. The best model relating apparent survivorship of tortoises ≥18 cm over time was based on a three year moving average of estimated winter precipitation. The postures and positions of a majority of dead tortoises found in 2012 were consistent with death by dehydration and starvation. Some live and many dead tortoises found in 2012 showed signs of predation or scavenging by mammalian carnivores. Coyote (Canis latrans) scats and other evidence from the site confirmed their role as tortoise predators and scavengers. Predation rates may be exacerbated by drought if carnivores switch from preferred mammalian prey to tortoises during dry years. Climate modeling suggests that the region will be subjected to even longer duration droughts in the future and that the plot may become unsuitable for continued tortoise survival. Our results showing wide fluctuations in apparent survival and decreasing tortoise density over time may be early signals of that possible outcome.

California↗
USGS2013

Breeding site heterogeneity reduces variability in frog recruitment and population dynamics

Environmental stochasticity can have profound effects on the dynamics and viability of wild populations, and habitat heterogeneity provides one mechanism by which populations may be buffered against the negative effects of environmental fluctuations. Heterogeneity in breeding pond hydroperiod across the landscape may allow amphibian populations to persist despite variable interannual precipitation. We examined recruitment dynamics over 10 yr in a high-elevation Columbia spotted frog ( Rana luteiventris ) population that breeds in ponds with a variety of hydroperiods. We combined these data with matrix population models to quantify the consequences of heterogeneity in pond hydroperiod on net recruitment (i.e. number of metamorphs produced) and population growth rates. We compared our heterogeneous system to hypothetical homogeneous environments with only ephemeral ponds, only semi-permanent ponds, and only permanent ponds. We also examined the effects of breeding pond habitat loss on population growth rates. Most eggs were laid in permanent ponds each year, but survival to metamorphosis was highest in the semi-permanent ponds. Recruitment success varied by both year and pond type. Net recruitment and stochastic population growth rate were highest under a scenario with homogeneous semi-permanent ponds, but variability in recruitment was lowest in the scenario with the observed heterogeneity in hydroperiods. Loss of pond habitat decreased population growth rate, with greater decreases associated with loss of permanent and semi-permanent habitat. The presence of a diversity of pond hydroperiods on the landscape will influence population dynamics, including reducing variability in recruitment in an uncertain climatic future.

Montana↗
USGS2014

Population declines lead to replicate patterns of internal range structure at the tips of the distribution of the California red-legged frog ( Rana draytonii )

Demographic declines and increased isolation of peripheral populations of the threatened California red-legged frog ( Rana draytonii ) have led to the formation of internal range boundaries at opposite ends of the species’ distribution. While the population genetics of the southern internal boundary has been studied in some detail, similar information is lacking for the northern part of the range. In this study, we used microsatellite and mtDNA data to examine the genetic structuring and diversity of some of the last remaining R. draytonii populations in the northern Sierra Nevada, which collectively form the northern external range boundary. We compared these data to coastal populations in the San Francisco Bay Area, where the species is notably more abundant and still exists throughout much of its historic range. We show that ‘external’ Sierra Nevada populations have lower genetic diversity and are more differentiated from one another than their ‘internal’ Bay Area counterparts. This same pattern was mirrored across the distribution in California, where Sierra Nevada and Bay Area populations had lower allelic variability compared to those previously studied in coastal southern California. This genetic signature of northward range expansion was mirrored in the phylogeography of mtDNA haplotypes; northern Sierra Nevada haplotypes showed greater similarity to haplotypes from the south Coast Ranges than to the more geographically proximate populations in the Bay Area. These data cast new light on the geographic origins of Sierra Nevada R. draytonii populations and highlight the importance of distinguishing the genetic effects of contemporary demographic declines from underlying signatures of historic range expansion when addressing the most immediate threats to population persistence. Because there is no evidence of contemporary gene flow between any of the Sierra Nevada R. draytonii populations, we suggest that management activities should focus on maintaining and creating additional ponds to support breeding within typical dispersal distances of occupied habitat.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2014

Animal reintroductions: an innovative assessment of survival

Quantitative evaluations of reintroductions are infrequent and assessments of milestones reached before a project is completed, or abandoned due to lack of funding, are rare. However, such assessments, which are promoted in adaptive management frameworks, are critical. Quantification can provide defensible estimates of biological success, such as the number of survivors from a released cohort, with associated cost per animal. It is unlikely that the global issues of endangered wildlife and population declines will abate, therefore, assurance colonies and reintroductions are likely to become more common. If such endeavors are to be successful biologically or achieve adequate funding, implementation must be more rigorous and accountable. We use a novel application of a multistate, robust design capture-recapture model to estimate survival of reintroduced tadpoles through metamorphosis (i.e., the number of individuals emerging from the pond) and thereby provide a quantitative measure of effort and success for an "in progress" reintroduction of toads. Our data also suggest that tadpoles released at later developmental stages have an increased probability of survival and that eggs laid in the wild hatched at higher rates than eggs laid by captive toads. We illustrate how an interim assessment can identify problems, highlight successes, and provide information for use in adjusting the effort or implementing a Decision-Theoretic adaptive management strategy.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2014

Establishing endangered species recovery criteria using predictive simulation modeling

Listing a species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and developing a recovery plan requires U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish specific and measurable criteria for delisting. Generally, species are listed because they face (or are perceived to face) elevated risk of extinction due to issues such as habitat loss, invasive species, or other factors. Recovery plans identify recovery criteria that reduce extinction risk to an acceptable level. It logically follows that the recovery criteria, the defined conditions for removing a species from ESA protections, need to be closely related to extinction risk. Extinction probability is a population parameter estimated with a model that uses current demographic information to project the population into the future over a number of replicates, calculating the proportion of replicated populations that go extinct. We simulated extinction probabilities of piping plovers in the Great Plains and estimated the relationship between extinction probability and various demographic parameters. We tested the fit of regression models linking initial abundance, productivity, or population growth rate to extinction risk, and then, using the regression parameter estimates, determined the conditions required to reduce extinction probability to some pre-defined acceptable threshold. Binomial regression models with mean population growth rate and the natural log of initial abundance were the best predictors of extinction probability 50 years into the future. For example, based on our regression models, an initial abundance of approximately 2400 females with an expected mean population growth rate of 1.0 will limit extinction risk for piping plovers in the Great Plains to less than 0.048. Our method provides a straightforward way of developing specific and measurable recovery criteria linked directly to the core issue of extinction risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2014

Potential reduction in terrestrial salamander ranges associated with Marcellus shale development

Natural gas production from the Marcellus shale is rapidly increasing in the northeastern United States. Most of the endemic terrestrial salamander species in the region are classified as ‘globally secure’ by the IUCN, primarily because much of their ranges include state- and federally protected lands, which have been presumed to be free from habitat loss. However, the proposed and ongoing development of the Marcellus gas resources may result in significant range restrictions for these and other terrestrial forest salamanders. To begin to address the gaps in our knowledge of the direct impacts of shale gas development, we developed occurrence models for five species of terrestrial plethodontid salamanders found largely within the Marcellus shale play. We predicted future Marcellus shale development under several scenarios. Under scenarios of 10,000, 20,000, and 50,000 new gas wells, we predict 4%, 8%, and 20% forest loss, respectively, within the play. Predictions of habitat loss vary among species, but in general, Plethodon electromorphus and Plethodon wehrlei are predicted to lose the greatest proportion of forested habitat within their ranges if future Marcellus development is based on characteristics of the shale play. If development is based on current well locations, Plethodon richmondi is predicted to lose the greatest proportion of habitat. Models showed high uncertainty in species’ ranges and emphasize the need for distribution data collected by widespread and repeated, randomized surveys.

Biological Conservation↗