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At least 415 records · Page 23Linked to original sources
USGS2003

Use of hydraulic head to estimate volumetric gas content and ebullition flux in northern peatlands

Hydraulic head was overpressured at middepth in a 4.2‐m thick raised bog in the Glacial Lake Agassiz peatlands of northern Minnesota, and fluctuated in response to atmospheric pressure. Barometric efficiency (BE), determined by calculating ratios of change in hydraulic head to change in atmospheric pressure, ranged from 0.05 to 0.15 during July through November of both 1997 and 1998. The overpressuring and a BE response were caused by free‐phase gas contained primarily in the center of the peat column between two or more semielastic, semiconfining layers of more competent peat. Two methods were used to determine the volume of gas bubbles contained in the peat, one using the degree of overpressuring in the middepth of the peat, and the other relating BE to specific yield of the shallow peat. The volume of gas calculated from the overpressuring method averaged 9%, assuming that the gas was distributed over a 2‐m thick overpressured interval. The volume of gas using the BE method averaged 13%. Temporal changes in overpressuring and in BE indicate that the volume of gaseous‐phase gas also changed with time, most likely because of rapid degassing (ebullition) that allowed sudden loss of gas to the atmosphere. Estimates of gas released during the largest ebullition events ranged from 0.3 to 0.7 mol m −2 d −1 . These ebullition events may contribute a significant source of methane and carbon dioxide to the atmosphere that has so far largely gone unmeasured by gas‐flux chambers or tower‐mounted sensors.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

Comparison of Penman-Monteith, Shuttleworth-Wallace, and modified Priestley-Taylor evapotranspiration models for wildland vegetation in semiarid rangeland

Eddy correlation measurements of sensible and latent heat flux are used with measurements of net radiation, soil heat flux, and other micrometeorological variables to develop the Penman-Monteith, Shuttleworth-Wallace, and modified Priestley-Taylor evapotranspiration models for use in a sparsely vegetated, semiarid rangeland. The Penman-Monteith model, a one-component model designed for use with dense crops, is not sufficiently accurate ( r 2 = 0.56 for hourly data and r 2 = 0.60 for daily data). The Shuttleworth-Wallace model, a two-component logical extension of the Penman-Monteith model for use with sparse crops, performs significantly better ( r 2 = 0.78 for hourly data and r 2 = 0.85 for daily data). The modified Priestley-Taylor model, a one-component simplified form of the Penman potential evapotranspiration model, surprisingly performs as well as the Shuttle worth-Wallace model. The rigorous Shuttleworth-Wallace model predicts that about one quarter of the vapor flux to the atmosphere is from bare-soil evaporation. Further, during daylight hours, the small leaves are sinks for sensible heat produced at the hot soil surface.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

Dating of shallow groundwater: Comparison of the transient tracers 3H/3He, chlorofluorocarbons, and 85Kr

This paper describes a direct comparison of apparent ages derived from 3 H/ 3 He, chlorofluorocarbons (CCl 3 F and CCl 2 F 2 ), and 85 Kr measurements in shallow groundwater. Wells chosen for this study are completed in the unconfined surficial aquifers in late Cenozoic Atlantic Coastal Plain sediments of the Delmarva Peninsula, on the east coast of the United States. Most of the apparent tracer ages agree within 2 years of each other for recharge dates between 1965 and 1990. Discrepancies in apparent tracer ages usually can be explained by hydrological processes such as mixing in a discharge area. Recharge rate calculations based on apparent tracer age gradients at multilevel well locations agree with previous recharge estimates. High recharge rates on the Delmarva Peninsula result in nearly complete dissolved-gas confinement in the groundwater. The remarkable agreement between the different tracer ages indicates negligible mixing of waters of different ages, insignificant dispersion, minimal gas loss to the atmosphere, and insignificant sorption-desorption processes at this location.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2024

Climatic variability as a principal driver of primary production in the southernmost subalpine Rocky Mountain lake

Mountain lakes are sensitive indicators of anthropogenically driven global change, with lake sediment records documenting increased primary production during the twentieth century. Atmospheric nutrient deposition and warming have been attributed to changes in other Western mountain lakes, however, the intensity of these drivers varies. We analyzed a sediment core representing a 270-year record from Santa Fe Lake, New Mexico, to constrain the southern margin of Rocky Mountain lakes and quantify patterns of change in lake biogeochemistry, production, and diatoms since 1750. Lake sediments were dated using 210 Pb and analyzed for carbon (C), nitrogen (N), stable isotopes (δ 13 C, δ 15 N), diatoms, and phototrophic pigments. The abundance of cyanobacteria, purple sulfur-reducing bacteria, and diatom pigments were elevated during the stable conditions of the Little Ice Age; these phototrophic groups declined in the late 1800s and reached a minimum by 1950. From 1950 to 2020, sediments recorded an increased abundance of cryptophyte, diatom, and chlorophyte groups. The C and N (percentage dry mass) increased after 1950, whereas δ 15 N and δ 13 C values declined. Changes since the mid-twentieth century are contemporaneous with warming trends in the Southwest and modest deposition of atmospheric N. Our findings highlight the geographic variability of mountain lake responses to changing environmental conditions.

New Mexico↗
USGS2018

Phenological mismatch in coastal western Alaska may increase summer season greenhouse gas uptake

High latitude ecosystems are prone to phenological mismatches due to climate change- driven advances in the growing season and changing arrival times of migratory herbivores. These changes have the potential to alter biogeochemical cycling and contribute to feedbacks on climate change by altering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) through large regions of the Arctic. Yet the effects of phenological mismatches on gas fluxes are currently unexplored. We used a three-year field experiment that altered the start of the growing season and timing of grazing to investigate how phenological mismatch affects GHG exchange. We found early grazing increased mean GHG emission to the atmosphere despite lower CH 4 emissions due to grazing-induced changes in vegetation structure that increased uptake of CO 2 . In contrast, late grazing reduced GHG emissions because greater plant productivity led to an increase in CO 2 uptake that overcame the increase in CH 4 emission. Timing of grazing was an important control on both CO 2 and CH 4 emissions, and net GHG exchange was the result of opposing fluxes of CO 2 and CH 4 . N 2 O played a negligible role in GHG flux. Advancing the growing season had a smaller effect on GHG emissions than changes to timing of grazing in this study. Our results suggest that a phenological mismatch that delays timing of grazing relative to the growing season, a change which is already developing along in western coastal Alaska, will reduce GHG emissions to the atmosphere through increased CO 2 uptake despite greater CH 4 emissions.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2017

Biocrust ecology: Unifying micro- and macro-scales to confront global change

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are communities of microbes, lichens and bryophytes living at the soil surface in drylands (Fig. 1; Belnap et al ., 2016). Biocrusts occur on all continents and can comprise a majority of cover in some systems (Belnap et al ., 2016). While species diversity and distributions have long been a research focus, interest in controls on community composition and cover has expanded as biocrusts are increasingly recognized for their roles in ecosystem functioning (Deane-Coe and Stanton, 2017). For example, biocrust organisms can stabilize soils (Belnap et al ., 2016; Faist et al ., 2017), fix atmospheric carbon (C) (Sancho et al ., 2016), and serve as the foremost source of ‘new’ soil nitrogen (N) in drylands, via N 2 fixation (Barger et al ., 2016) These contributions to gross primary production and soil fertility could be quite large, as high-end estimates suggest biocrusts and similar communities of bryophytes and lichens might account for 10% of terrestrial C- and 50% of N-fixation globally (Elbert et al ., 2012). Yet verifying these and other biocrust roles in ecosystem functioning is complicated by limited knowledge of biocrust cover and composition across the vast dryland biome (Ferrenberg et al ., 2017). It was against this backdrop that ‘Biocrust3: the 3 rd International workshop on biological soil crusts’ was held in Moab, UT, USA, on 26-30 September 2016. The workshop brought together over 50 scientists from 21 countries and six continents, and included numerous biocrust science pioneers (Fig. 2). The meeting was notable for its cross-scale focus, discussion of novel molecular and imaging techniques, and sessions on mapping and restoring biocrusts in a changing world. Here, we synthesize a central theme that emerged from Biocrust3, namely the potential for combining cutting edge tools with studies focused on organismal traits, ecosystem functions, and global change biology to advance the frontier of biocrust ecology.

New Phytologist↗
USGS2013

Radiocarbon dating in groundwater systems

The radioactive isotope of carbon, radiocarbon ( 14 C), was first produced artificially in 1940 by Martin Kamen and Sam Ruben, who bombarded graphite in a cyclotron at the Radiation Laboratory at Berkeley, CA, in an attempt to produce a radioactive isotope of carbon that could be used as a tracer in biological systems (Kamen (1963) [101]; Ruben and Kamen (1941) [102]). Carbon-14 of cosmogenic origin was discovered in atmospheric CO 2 in 1946 by Willard F. Libby, who determined a half-life of 5568 a. Libby and his co-workers (Anderson et al. (1947) [103]; Libby et al. (1949) [104]) developed radiocarbon dating of organic carbon of biological origin, which revolutionized research in a number of fields, including archaeology and quaternary geology/climatology, by establishing ages and chronologies of events that have occurred over the past approximately 45 ka.

Book chapter↗
USGS2015

Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests

Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their potential responses to this imminent climatic change. Here, we prioritize research approaches given both funding and logistical constraints in order to resolve major uncertainties about how tropical forests function and also to improve predictive capacity of earth system models. We investigate overall model uncertainty of tropical latitudes and explore the scientific benefits and inevitable trade-offs inherent in large-scale manipulative field experiments. With a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 analysis, we found that model variability in projected net ecosystem production was nearly 3 times greater in the tropics than for any other latitude. Through a review of the most current literature, we concluded that manipulative warming experiments are vital to accurately predict future tropical forest carbon balance, and we further recommend the establishment of a network of comparable studies spanning gradients of precipitation, edaphic qualities, plant types, and/or land use change. We provide arguments for long-term, single-factor warming experiments that incorporate warming of the most biogeochemically active ecosystem components (i.e. leaves, roots, soil microbes). Hypothesis testing of underlying mechanisms should be a priority, along with improving model parameterization and constraints. No single tropical forest is representative of all tropical forests; therefore logistical feasibility should be the most important consideration for locating large-scale manipulative experiments. Above all, we advocate for multi-faceted research programs, and we offer arguments for what we consider the most powerful and urgent way forward in order to improve our understanding of tropical forest responses to climate change.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2010

Response of Florida shelf ecosystems to climate change: from macro to micro scales

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research in St. Petersburg, Fla., is focusing attention on marine environments of the Florida shelf at three levels, from regional to estuarine to the individual organism. The USGS is partnering on this project with the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (DACS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the University of South Florida (USF) in marine studies. The specific goals of these combined efforts are an improved understanding of the effects of ocean acidification on regional carbonate processes, changes in individual estuaries, and organism-level response. This understanding will assist in developing appropriate Federal, State, and local management responses to climate change in coastal areas.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS1997

Water-quality assessment of the Lower Susquehanna River Basin, Pennsylvania and Maryland: sources, characteristics, analysis and limitations of nutrient and suspended-sediment data, 1975-90

This report describes analyses of available information on nutrients and suspended sediment collected in the Lower Susquehanna River Basin during water years 1975-90. Most of the analyses were applied to data collected during water years 1980-89. The report describes the spatial and temporal availability of nutrient and suspended-sediment data and presents a preliminary concept of the spatial and temporal patterns of concentrations and loads within the basin. Where data were available, total and dissolved forms of nitrogen and phosphorus species from precipitation, surface water, ground water, and springwater, and bottom material from streams and reservoirs were evaluated. Suspended-sediment data from streams also were evaluated. The U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System (NWIS) database was selected as the primary database for the analyses. Precipitation-quality data from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) and bottom-material-quality data from the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) were used to supplement the water-quality data from NWIS. Concentrations of nutrients were available from 3 precipitation sites established for longterm monitoring purposes, 883 wells (854 synoptic areal survey sites and 29 project and research sites), 23 springs (17 synoptic areal survey sites and 6 project and research sites), and 894 bottom-material sites (840 synoptic areal survey sites and 54 project and research sites). Concentrations of nutrients and (or) suspended sediment were available from 128 streams (36 long-term monitoring sites, 51 synoptic areal survey sites, and 41 project and research sites). Concentrations of nutrients and suspended sediment in streams varied temporally and spatially and were related to land use, agricultural practices, and streamflow. A general north-to-south pattern of increasing median nitrate concentrations, from 2 to 5 mg/L, was detected in samples collected in study unit streams. In streams that drain areas dominated by agriculture, concentrations of nutrients and suspended sediment tend to be elevated with respect to those found in areas of other land-use types and are related to the amount of commercial fertilizer and animal manure applied to the area drained by the streams. Animal manure is the dominant source of nitrogen for the streams in the lower, agricultural part of the basin. Concentrations of nutrients in samples from wells varied with season and well depth and were related to hydrogeologic setting. Median concentrations of nitrate were 2.5 and 3.5 mg/L for wells drawing water at depths of 0 to 100 ft and 101 to 200 ft, respectively. The lowest median concentrations for nitrate in ground water from wells were generally found in siliciclastic-bedrock, forested settings of the Ridge and Valley Physiographic Province, and the highest were found in carbonate-bedrock agricultural settings of the Piedmont Physiographic Province. Twenty-five percent of the measurements from wells in carbonate rocks in the Piedmont Physiographic Province exceeded the Pennsylvania drinking-water standard. An estimate of mass balance of nutrient loads within the Lower Susquehanna River Basin was produced by combining the available information on stream loads, atmosphericdeposition loads, commercial-fertilizer applications, animal-manure production, privateseptic-system nonpoint-source loads, and municipal and industrial point-source loads. The percentage of the average annual nitrate load carried in base flow of streams in the study unit ranged from 45 to 76 percent, and the average annual phosphorus load carried in base flow ranged from 20 to 33 percent. Average annual yields of nutrients and suspended sediment from tributary basins are directly related to percentage of drainage area in agriculture and inversely to drainage area. Information required to compute loads of nitrogen and phosphorus were available for all sources except atmospheric deposition, for which only nitrogen data were available. Atmospheric deposition is the dominant source of nitrogen for the mostly forested basins draining the upper half of the study unit. The estimate of total annual nitrogen load to the study unit from precipitation is 98.8 million pounds. Nonpoint and point sources of nutrients were estimated. Nonpoint and point sources combined, including atmospheric deposition, provide a potential annual load of 390 million pounds of nitrogen and 79.5 million pounds of phosphorus. The range of percentages of the estimated nonpoint and point sources that were measured in the stream was 20 to 47 percent for nitrogen and 6 to 14 percent for phosphorus. On the average, the Susquehanna River discharges 141,000 pounds of nitrogen and 7,920 pounds of phosphorus to the Lower Susquehanna River reservoir system each year. About 98 percent of the nitrogen and 60 percent of the phosphorus passes through the reservoir system. Interpretations of available water-quality data and conclusions about the water quality of the Lower Susquehanna River Basin were limited by the scarcity of certain types of water-quality data and current ancillary data. A more complete assessment of the water quality of the basin with respect to nutrients and suspended sediment would be enhanced by the availability of additional data for multiple samples over time from all water environments; samples from streams in the northern and western part of the basin; samples from streams and springs throughout the basin during high base-flow or stormflow conditions; and information on current land-use, and nutrient loading from all types of land-use settings.

Maryland, Pennsylvania↗
USGS2009

Projected changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire disturbance and the snow season in the western Arctic, 2003–2100

In high latitudes, changes in climate impact fire regimes and snow cover duration, altering the surface albedo and the heating of the regional atmosphere. In the western Arctic, under four scenarios of future climate change and future fire regimes (2003–2100), we examined changes in surface albedo and the related changes in regional atmospheric heating due to: (1) vegetation changes following a changing fire regime, and (2) changes in snow cover duration. We used a spatially explicit dynamic vegetation model (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) to simulate changes in successional dynamics associated with fire under the future climate scenarios, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to simulate changes in snow cover. Changes in summer heating due to the changes in the forest stand age distributions under future fire regimes showed a slight cooling effect due to increases in summer albedo (mean across climates of −0.9 W m −2 decade −1 ). Over this same time period, decreases in snow cover (mean reduction in the snow season of 4.5 d decade −1 ) caused a reduction in albedo, and a heating effect (mean across climates of 4.3 W m −2 decade −1 ). Adding both the summer negative change in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire regimes to the positive changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in the length of the snow season resulted in a 3.4 W m −2 decade −1 increase in atmospheric heating. These findings highlight the importance of gaining a better understanding of the influences of changes in surface albedo on atmospheric heating due to both changes in the fire regime and changes in snow cover duration.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2023

Your land, your water—Using research to guide conservation practices on local farms in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Agricultural lands are an important part of the economy and heritage of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and are a focus of conservation activities. Streams and rivers around farms provide communities with drinking water and recreational opportunities, but these local benefits can be impaired by elevated nutrient and sediment concentrations. Compared to inputs from the atmosphere, wastewater, and urban and suburban areas, agricultural lands are the largest source of nutrients and sediment in many Chesapeake Bay streams. Farmers are voluntary conservation partners and have an important role in improving water-quality conditions. This fact sheet summarizes recent scientific insights from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that can help farmers use conservation practices and their knowledge of local site conditions to achieve cleaner water.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗
USGS2019

Reducing wet ammonium deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park: The development and evaluation of a pilot early warning system for agricultural operations in eastern Colorado

Agricultural emissions are the primary source of ammonia (NH3) deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP), a Class I area, that is granted special air quality protections under the Clean Air Act. Between 2014 and 2016, the pilot phase of the Colorado agricultural nitrogen early warning system (CANEWS) was developed for agricultural producers to voluntarily and temporarily minimize emissions of NH3 during periods of upslope winds. The CANEWS was created using trajectory analyses driven by outputs from an ensemble of numerical weather forecasts together with the climatological expertise of human forecasters. Here, we discuss the methods for the CANEWS and offer preliminary analyses of 33 months of the CANEWS based on atmospheric deposition data from two sites in RMNP as well as responses from agricultural producers after warnings were issued. Results showed that the CANEWS accurately predicted 6 of 9 high N deposition weeks at a lower-elevation observation site, but only 4 of 11 high N deposition weeks at a higher-elevation site. Sixty agricultural producers from 39 of Colorado’s agricultural operations volunteered for the CANEWS, and a two-way line of communication between agricultural producers and scientists was formed. For each warning issued, an average of 23 producers responded to a post-warning survey. Over 75% of responding CANEWS participants altered their practices after an alert. While the current effort was insufficient to reduce atmospheric deposition, we were encouraged by the collaborative spirit between agricultural, scientific, and resource management communities. Solving a broad and complex social-ecological problem requires both a technological approach, such as the CANEWS, and collaboration and trust from all participants, including agricultural producers, land managers, university researchers, and environmental agencies.

Colorado↗
USGS2009

The Mauna Loa carbon dioxide record: lessons for long-term Earth observations

The Mauna Loa carbon dioxide record is an iconic symbol of the human capacity to alter the planet. Yet this record would not have been possible without the remarkable work of one man, Charles David Keeling. We describe three emergent themes that characterized his work: (1) his desire to study and understand the processes that control atmospheric CO 2 and the global carbon cycle, (2) his campaign to identify and minimize systematic measurement error, and (3) his tenacious efforts to maintain continuous funding despite changing government priorities and institutions. In many ways, the story of the Mauna Loa record demonstrates that distinctions between research and “routine” measurements are not very useful in long-term monitoring of Earth properties and processes.

Book chapter↗
USGS1988

Climatic data for Williams Lake, Hubbard County, Minnesota, 1982

Research on the hydrology of Williams Lake, north-central Minnesota includes study of evaporation. Those climatic data needed for energy budget and mass transfer studies are presented , including: water surface temperature, dry-bulb and wet-bulb air temperatures, wind speed, precipitation, and solar and atmospheric radiation. Some calculated values necessary for these studies are also presented, such as vapor pressure and Bowen-ratio values. Data are collected at raft and land stations.

Minnesota↗
USGS1995

Acid Rain

Although acid rain is fading as a political issue in the United States and funds for research in this area have largely disappeared, the acidity of rain in the Eastern United States has not changed significantly over the last decade, and it continues to be a serious environmental problem. Acid deposition (commonly called acid rain) is a term applied to all forms of atmospheric deposition of acidic substances - rain, snow, fog, acidic dry particulates, aerosols, and acid-forming gases. Water in the atmosphere reacts with certain atmospheric gases to become acidic. For example, water reacts with carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to produce a solution with a pH of about 5.6. Gases that produce acids in the presence of water in the atmosphere include carbon dioxide (which converts to carbonic acid), oxides of sulfur and nitrogen (which convert to sulfuric and nitric acids}, and hydrogen chloride (which converts to hydrochloric acid). These acid-producing gases are released to the atmosphere through natural processes, such as volcanic emissions, lightning, forest fires, and decay of organic matter. Accordingly, precipitation is slightly acidic, with a pH of 5.0 to 5.7 even in undeveloped areas. In industrialized areas, most of the acid-producing gases are released to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels. Major emitters of acid-producing gases include power plants, industrial operations, and motor vehicles. Acid-producing gases can be transported through the atmosphere for hundreds of miles before being converted to acids and deposited as acid rain. Because acids tend to build up in the atmosphere between storms, the most acidic rain falls at the beginning of a storm, and as the rain continues, the acids "wash out" of the atmosphere.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2015

On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broad-scale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—“hotter drought”, an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene—are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought and associated pests and pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management and policy-making communities regarding future tree mortality risks. We summarize key mortality-relevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels of vulnerability. Evidence suggesting lesser vulnerability includes forest benefits of elevated [CO 2 ] and increased water-use efficiency; observed and modeled increases in forest growth and canopy greening; widespread increases in woody-plant biomass, density, and extent; compensatory physiological, morphological, and genetic mechanisms; dampening ecological feedbacks; and potential mitigation by forest management. In contrast, recent studies document more rapid mortality under hotter drought due to negative tree physiological responses and accelerated biotic attacks. Additional evidence suggesting greater vulnerability includes rising background mortality rates; projected increases in drought frequency, intensity, and duration; limitations of vegetation models such as inadequately represented mortality processes; warming feedbacks from die-off; and wildfire synergies. Grouping these findings we identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape the vulnerability debate but have not been discussed collectively. We also present a set of global vulnerability drivers that are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) warming produces hotter droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand increases nonlinearly with temperature during drought; (4) mortality can occur faster in hotter drought, consistent with fundamental physiology; (5) shorter droughts occur more frequently than longer droughts and can become lethal under warming, increasing the frequency of lethal drought nonlinearly; and (6) mortality happens rapidly relative to growth intervals needed for forest recovery. These high-confidence drivers, in concert with research supporting greater vulnerability perspectives, support an overall viewpoint of greater forest vulnerability globally. We surmise that mortality vulnerability is being discounted in part due to difficulties in predicting threshold responses to extreme climate events. Given the profound ecological and societal implications of underestimating global vulnerability to hotter drought, we highlight urgent challenges for research, management, and policy-making communities.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2016

Predictability of horizontal water vapor transport relative to precipitation: Enhancing situational awareness for forecasting western U.S. extreme precipitation and flooding

The western United States is vulnerable to socioeconomic disruption due to extreme winter precipitation and floods. Traditionally, forecasts of precipitation and river discharge provide the basis for preparations. Herein we show that earlier event awareness may be possible through use of horizontal water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) forecasts. Applying the potential predictability concept to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global ensemble reforecasts, across 31 winters, IVT is found to be more predictable than precipitation. IVT ensemble forecasts with the smallest spreads (least forecast uncertainty) are associated with initiation states with anomalously high geopotential heights south of Alaska, a setup conducive for anticyclonic conditions and weak IVT into the western United States. IVT ensemble forecasts with the greatest spreads (most forecast uncertainty) have initiation states with anomalously low geopotential heights south of Alaska and correspond to atmospheric rivers. The greater IVT predictability could provide warnings of impending storminess with additional lead times for hydrometeorological applications.

Geophysical Research Letters↗