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Mourning dove population trend estimates from Call-Count and North American Breeding Bird Surveys

The mourning dove ( Zenaida macrour a) Call-count Survey and the North American Breeding Bird Survey provide information on population trends of mourning doves throughout the continental United States. Because surveys are an integral part of the development of hunting regulations, a need exists to determine which survey provides precise information. We estimated population trends from 1966 to 1988 by state and dove management unit, and assessed the relative efficiency of each survey. Estimates of population trend differ ( P < 0.05) between surveys in 11 of 48 states; 9 of 11 states with divergent results occur in the Eastern Management Unit. Differences were probably a consequence of smaller sample sizes in the Callcount Survey. The Breeding Bird Survey generally provided trend estimates with smaller variances than did the Callcount Survey. Although the Callcount Survey probably provides more withinroute accuracy because of survey methods and timing, the Breeding Bird Survey has a larger sample size of survey routes and greater consistency of coverage in the Eastern Unit.

continental United States

Spatial distribution of band recoveries of black brant

On average, band recovery rates of adult black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) more than doubled between the 2000s and 2010s. However, the spatial distribution of band recoveries of black brant has not been reported. Our objective was to describe the spatial distribution of band recoveries of black brant since 1990. We found that Alaska, California, and Mexico accounted for ≥89% of band recoveries for black brant released from the Arctic and the Tutakoke River Colony in southwestern Alaska, in each decade studied. Although recovery rates increased in each major harvest region from the 1990s to 2010s, increases were not even. For brant released from the Arctic, the recovery rate in Alaska has gone up 7‐fold, whereas the recovery rate in Mexico has increased 1.3‐fold since the 1990s. For brant banded in the Arctic, the increased recovery rates in Alaska resulted largely from a rise in recoveries from the Izembek Lagoon area. For brant banded at the Tutakoke River Colony, the recovery rate in Alaska increased 4.8‐fold, whereas recovery rates in Mexico increased 1.6‐fold. Despite the reduced relative contribution of Mexico to band recoveries in the 2010s, Bahia San Quintin, Mexico, still contributes more recoveries than any other wintering estuary. Because 57–60% of black brant band recoveries occur at the localities of Izembek Lagoon, Alaska; Humboldt Bay, California; and Bahia San Quintin, it is likely that accurate annual estimates of the black brant population using Lincoln's method could be derived from hunter bag checks at these 3 areas. If population managers are interested in managing harvest rates of black brant, they could focus efforts on the main hunting areas we highlight in this paper. Finally, it is unclear if the recent increases in band recovery rates are the result of increased harvest, a declining population, or both; therefore, we suggest refinement of population monitoring programs and continued monitoring of band recovery rates.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Spatio-temporal variation in male white-tailed deer harvest rates in Pennsylvania: Implications for estimating abundance

The performance of 2 popular methods that use age-at-harvest data to estimate abundance of white-tailed deer is contingent on assumptions about variation in estimates of subadult (1.5&thinsp;yr old) and adult (&ge;2.5&thinsp;yr old) male harvest rates. Auxiliary data (e.g., estimates of survival or harvest rates from radiocollared animals) can be used to relax some assumptions, but unless these population parameters exhibit limited temporal or spatial variation, these auxiliary data may not improve accuracy. Unfortunately maintaining sufficient sample sizes of radiocollared deer for parameter estimation in every wildlife management unit (WMU) is not feasible for most state agencies. We monitored the fates of 397 subadult and 225 adult male white-tailed deer across 4 WMUs from 2002 to 2008 using radio telemetry. We investigated spatial and temporal variation in harvest rates and investigated covariates related to the patterns observed. We found that most variation in harvest rates was explained spatially and that adult harvest rates (0.36&ndash;0.69) were more variable among study areas than subadult harvest rates (0.26&ndash;0.42). We found that hunter effort during the archery and firearms season best explained variation in harvest rates of adult males among WMUs, whereas hunter effort during only the firearms season best explained harvest rates for subadult males. From a population estimation perspective, it is advantageous that most variation was spatial and explained by a readily obtained covariate (hunter effort). However, harvest rates may vary if hunting regulations or hunter behavior change, requiring additional field studies to obtain accurate estimates of harvest rates.

Pennsylvania

Spatially explicit modeling of lesser prairie-chicken lek density in Texas

As with many other grassland birds, lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) have experienced population declines in the Southern Great Plains. Currently they are proposed for federal protection under the Endangered Species Act. In addition to a history of land-uses that have resulted in habitat loss, lesser prairie-chickens now face a new potential disturbance from energy development. We estimated lek density in the occupied lesser prairie-chicken range of Texas, USA, and modeled anthropogenic and vegetative landscape features associated with lek density. We used an aerial line-transect survey method to count lesser prairie-chicken leks in spring 2010 and 2011 and surveyed 208 randomly selected 51.84-km(2) blocks. We divided each survey block into 12.96-km(2) quadrats and summarized landscape variables within each quadrat. We then used hierarchical distance-sampling models to examine the relationship between lek density and anthropogenic and vegetative landscape features and predict how lek density may change in response to changes on the landscape, such as an increase in energy development. Our best models indicated lek density was related to percent grassland, region (i.e., the northeast or southwest region of the Texas Panhandle), total percentage of grassland and shrubland, paved road density, and active oil and gas well density. Predicted lek density peaked at 0.39leks/12.96km(2) (SE=0.09) and 2.05leks/12.96km(2) (SE=0.56) in the northeast and southwest region of the Texas Panhandle, respectively, which corresponds to approximately 88% and 44% grassland in the northeast and southwest region. Lek density increased with an increase in total percentage of grassland and shrubland and was greatest in areas with lower densities of paved roads and lower densities of active oil and gas wells. We used the 2 most competitive models to predict lek abundance and estimated 236 leks (CV=0.138, 95% CI=177-306leks) for our sampling area. Our results suggest that managing landscapes to maintain a greater percentage of grassland and shrubland on the landscape with a greater ratio of grasses to shrubs in the northeast Panhandle should promote greater lek density. Furthermore, increases in paved road and active oil and gas well densities may reduce lek density. This information will be useful for future conservation planning efforts for land protection, policy decisions, and decision analyses.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Modeling pattern in collections of parameters

Wildlife management is increasingly guided by analyses of large and complex datasets. The description of such datasets often requires a large number of parameters, among which certain patterns might be discernible. For example, one may consider a long-term study producing estimates of annual survival rates; of interest is the question whether these rates have declined through time. Several statistical methods exist for examining pattern in collections of parameters. Here, I argue for the superiority of 'random effects models' in which parameters are regarded as random variables, with distributions governed by 'hyperparameters' describing the patterns of interest. Unfortunately, implementation of random effects models is sometimes difficult. Ultrastructural models, in which the postulated pattern is built into the parameter structure of the original data analysis, are approximations to random effects models. However, this approximation is not completely satisfactory: failure to account for natural variation among parameters can lead to overstatement of the evidence for pattern among parameters. I describe quasi-likelihood methods that can be used to improve the approximation of random effects models by ultrastructural models.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Factors influencing nesting success of king eiders on northern Alaska's Coastal Plain

King eider (Somateria spectabilis) populations have declined markedly in recent decades for unknown reasons. Nest survival is one component of recruitment, and a female's chance of reproductive success increases with her ability to choose an appropriate nesting strategy. We estimated variation in daily nest survival of king eiders at 2 sites, Teshekpuk and Kuparuk, Alaska, USA, 2002-2005. We evaluated both a priori and exploratory competing models of nest survival that considered importance of nest concealment, seclusion, and incubation constancy as strategies to avoid 2 primary egg predators, avian (Larus spp., Stercorarius spp., and Corvus corax) and fox (Alopex lagopus). We used generalized nonlinear techniques to examine factors affecting nest survival rates and information-theoretic approaches to select among competing models. Estimated nest survival, accounting for a nest visitation effect, varied considerably across sites and years (0.21-0.57); however, given our small sample size, much of this variation maybe attributable to sampling variation (??process = 0.007, 95% CI: 0.003-0.070). Nest survival was higher at Kuparuk than Teshekpuk in all years; however, due to the correlative nature of our data, we cannot determine the underlying causes with any certainty. We found mixed support for the concealed breeding strategy, females derived no benefit from nesting in areas with more willow (Salix spp.; measure of concealment) except that the observer effect diminished as willow cover increased. We suggest these patterns are due to conflicting predation pressures. Nest survival was not higher on islands (measure of seclusion) or with increased incubation constancy but was higher post-fox removal, indicating that predator control on breeding grounds could be a viable management option. Nest survival was negatively affected by our nest visitations, most likely by exposing the nest to avian scavengers. We recommend precautions be taken to limit the effects of nest visits in future studies and to consider them as a possible negative bias in estimated nest survival. Future models of the impacts of development within the breeding grounds of king eider should consider the influence of humans in the vicinity of nests.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Inferences about ungulate population dynamics derived from age ratios

Age ratios (e.g., calf:cow for elk and fawn:doe for deer) are used regularly to monitor ungulate populations. However, it remains unclear what inferences are appropriate from this index because multiple vital rate changes can influence the observed ratio. We used modeling based on elk (Cervus elaphus) life-history to evaluate both how age ratios are influenced by stage-specific fecundity and survival and how well age ratios track population dynamics. Although all vital rates have the potential to influence calf:adult female ratios (i.e., calf:xow ratios), calf survival explained the vast majority of variation in calf:adult female ratios due to its temporal variation compared to other vital rates. Calf:adult female ratios were positively correlated with population growth rate (??) and often successfully indicated population trajectories. However, calf:adult female ratios performed poorly at detecting imposed declines in calf survival, suggesting that only the most severe declines would be rapidly detected. Our analyses clarify that managers can use accurate, unbiased age ratios to monitor arguably the most important components contributing to sustainable ungulate populations, survival rate of young and ??. However, age ratios are not useful for detecting gradual declines in survival of young or making inferences about fecundity or adult survival in ungulate populations. Therefore, age ratios coupled with independent estimates of population growth or population size are necessary to monitor ungulate population demography and dynamics closely through time.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Bayesian adaptive survey protocols for resource management

Transparency in resource management decisions requires a proper accounting of uncertainty at multiple stages of the decision‐making process. As information becomes available, periodic review and updating of resource management protocols reduces uncertainty and improves management decisions. One of the most basic steps to mitigating anthropogenic effects on populations is determining if a population of a species occurs in an area that will be affected by human activity. Species are rarely detected with certainty, however, and falsely declaring a species absent can cause improper conservation decisions or even extirpation of populations. We propose a method to design survey protocols for imperfectly detected species that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty in the detection process, is capable of quantitatively incorporating expert opinion into the decision‐making process, allows periodic updates to the protocol, and permits resource managers to weigh the severity of consequences if the species is falsely declared absent. We developed our method using the giant gartersnake ( Thamnophis gigas ), a threatened species precinctive to the Central Valley of California, as a case study. Survey date was negatively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake, and water temperature was positively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake at a sampled location. Reporting sampling effort, timing and duration of surveys, and water temperatures would allow resource managers to evaluate the probability that the giant gartersnake occurs at sampled sites where it is not detected. This information would also allow periodic updates and quantitative evaluation of changes to the giant gartersnake survey protocol. Because it naturally allows multiple sources of information and is predicated upon the idea of updating information, Bayesian analysis is well‐suited to solving the problem of developing efficient sampling protocols for species of conservation concern.

California

Using integrated step-selection analyses to map high-risk electrocution areas for a highly mobile species

Knowledge of animal-movement patterns is a crucial component in identifying areas with high potential for human–wildlife conflict and in prioritizing associated management actions. Electrical energy infrastructure is a major source of mortality for animals worldwide, with millions of birds colliding with or being electrocuted by power lines and power-pole infrastructure each year. Movement, habitat use, and the spatial distribution of electrocution risk can vary with age, but studies of younger age classes are often hampered because these groups are difficult to observe and lack well-defined home ranges. To identify movement patterns and high-use areas of bald eagles in Arizona, USA, we analyzed global positioning system (GPS) telemetry data collected from 13 immature bald eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) across Arizona between 2017 and 2023. We built multi-scale, integrated step-selection functions that evaluated eagle responses to a suite of environmental covariates. We then used these models to simulate eagle movement and predict habitat use within and surrounding Maricopa County, which contains both the Phoenix Metropolitan Area and the plurality of bald eagle breeding areas in Arizona. We provide a use case for how these simulated movements could be used by resource managers to identify high-risk areas for electrocution. Eagles avoided urban areas and selected steeper slopes, more pronounced ridges, and areas with greater water and wetland land cover. Predicted habitat use by bald eagles was greatest near waterbodies and along ridges and steep slopes, and indicated where power infrastructure may pose greater electrocution risk. We show how integrated step-selection analyses and movement path simulation may be used for subadult animals lacking stable home ranges to predict high-use areas and identify locations with greater potential for negative human–wildlife interactions.

Arizona

Estimation of wildlife population ratios incorporating survey design and visibility bias

Age and sex ratio statistics are often a key component of the evaluation and management of wildlife populations. These statistics are determined from counts of animals that are commonly plagued by errors associated with either survey design or visibility bias. We present age and sex ratio estimators that incorporate both these sources of error and include the typical situation that animals are sampled in groups. Aerial surveys of elk ( Cervus elaphus ) in northcentral Idaho illustrate that differential visibility of age or sex classes can produce biased ratio estimates. Visibility models may be used to provide corrected estimates of ratios and their variability that incorporates errors due to sampling, visibility bias, and visibility estimation.

Idaho

Hibernacula selection by Townsend's big-eared bat in Southwestern Colorado

In western United States, both mine reclamations and renewed mining at previously abandoned mines have increased substantially in the last decade. This increased activity may adversely impact bats that use these mines for roosting. Townsend's big-eared bat ( Corynorhinus townsendii ) is a species of conservation concern that may be impacted by ongoing mine reclamation and renewed mineral extraction. To help inform wildlife management decisions related to bat use of abandoned mine sites, we used logistic regression, Akaike's information criterion, and multi-model inference to investigate hibernacula use by Townsend's big-eared bats using 9 years of data from surveys inside abandoned mines in southwestern Colorado. Townsend's big-eared bats were found in 38 of 133 mines surveyed (29%), and occupied mines averaged 2.6 individuals per mine. The model explaining the most variability in our data included number of openings and portal temperature at abandoned mines. In southwestern Colorado, we found that abandoned mine sites with more than one opening and portal temperatures near 0°C were more likely to contain hibernating Townsend's big-eared bats. However, mines with only one opening and portal temperatures of ≥10°C were occasionally occupied by Townsend's big-eared bat. Understanding mine use by Townsend's big-eared bat can help guide decisions regarding allocation of resources and placement of bat-compatible closures at mine sites scheduled for reclamation. When feasible we believe that surveys should be conducted inside all abandoned mines in a reclamation project at least once during winter prior to making closure and reclamation recommendations.

Colorado

Landscape-scale greater prairie-chicken–habitat relations and the Conservation Reserve Program

Both the abundance of greater prairie-chickens ( Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus ) and the area of grassland enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in northwestern Minnesota, USA, have recently declined. Although wildlife conservation is a stated objective of the CRP, the impact of the CRP on greater prairie-chicken populations has not been quantified. To address that information need, we evaluated the association between greater-prairie chicken lek density (leks/km 2 ), the number of males at leks (males/lek), and CRP enrollments in the context of landscape structure and composition in northwestern Minnesota. Using data from standardized prairie-chicken surveys and land cover in 17 41-km 2 survey blocks during 2004–2016, we used a mixed-effect model and a layered approach in an information-theoretic framework at multiple spatial scales to identify covariates related to prairie-chicken abundance. At the landscape scale, lek density was best explained by the amount of CRP grassland and wetland, grassland and wetland with long-term conservation goals (state, federal, and The Nature Conservancy owned); other wetlands managed with variable or no continuity in conservation goals; the contiguity of grasslands; and the number of patches of grasslands and wetlands in each survey block each year. Increasing the amount of CRP grassland in 41-km 2 survey blocks by 1 km 2 (2.4%) resulted in a corresponding increase of 6% in lek density. At the lek scale, the number of males per lek was best explained by the amount of CRP grassland and other grassland, CRP wetland and other wetland, forests, developed areas, shrubland, and the contiguity of CRP grassland. Increasing the amount of CRP grassland in the 2-km breeding-cycle habitat radius around a lek by 25% (3 km 2 ) corresponded to a 5% increase in males per lek. Our results suggest that both increasing the quantity of grassland CRP and wetland CRP enrollments and aggregating CRP grassland enrollments may increase greater prairie-chicken abundance.

Minnesota

Determinants of wood thrush nest success: A multi-scale, model selection approach

We collected data on 212 wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) nests in central New York from 1998 to 2000 to determine the factors that most strongly influence nest success. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess and rank 9 models that examined the relationship between nest success (i.e., the probability that a nest would successfully fledge at least 1 wood thrush offspring) and habitat conditions at different spatial scales. We found that 4 variables were significant predictors of nesting success for wood thrushes: (1) total core habitat within 5 km of a study site, (2) distance to forest-field edge, (3) total forest cover within 5 km of the study site, and (4) density and variation in diameter of trees and shrubs surrounding the nest. The coefficients of these predictors were all positive. Of the 9 models evaluated, amount of core habitat in the 5-km landscape was the best-fit model, but the vegetation structure model (i.e., the density of trees and stems surrounding a nest) was also supported by the data. Based on AIC weights, enhancement of core area is likely to be a more effective management option than any other habitat-management options explored in this study. Bootstrap analysis generally confirmed these results; core and vegetation structure models were ranked 1, 2, or 3 in over 50% of 1,000 bootstrap trials. However, bootstrap results did not point to a decisive model, which suggests that multiple habitat factors are influencing wood thrush nesting success. Due to model uncertainty, we used a model averaging approach to predict the success or failure of each nest in our dataset. This averaged model was able to correctly predict 61.1% of nest outcomes.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Survival and recovery rates of American woodcock banded in Michigan

American woodcock (Scolopax minor) population indices have declined since U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) monitoring began in 1968. Management to stop and/or reverse this population trend has been hampered by the lack of recent information on woodcock population parameters. Without recent information on survival rate trends, managers have had to assume that the recent declines in recruitment indices are the only parameter driving woodcock declines. Using program MARK, we estimated annual survival and recovery rates of adult and juvenile American woodcock, and estimated summer survival of local (young incapable of sustained flight) woodcock banded in Michigan between 1978 and 1998. We constructed a set of candidate models from a global model with age (local, juvenile, adult) and time (year)-dependent survival and recovery rates to no age or time-dependent survival and recovery rates. Five models were supported by the data, with all models suggesting that survival rates differed among age classes, and 4 models had survival rates that were constant over time. The fifth model suggested that juvenile and adult survival rates were linear on a logit scale over time. Survival rates averaged over likelihood-weighted model results were 0.8784 +/- 0.1048 (SE) for locals, 0.2646 +/- 0.0423 (SE) for juveniles, and 0.4898 +/- 0.0329 (SE) for adults. Weighted average recovery rates were 0.0326 +/- 0.0053 (SE) for juveniles and 0.0313 +/- 0.0047 (SE) for adults. Estimated differences between our survival estimates and those from prior years were small, and our confidence around those differences was variable and uncertain. juvenile survival rates were low.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Survival of female wood ducks during brood rearing in Mississippi and Alabama

Knowledge of survival of female ducks is important for understanding population dynamics and managing hunted species. We estimated survival of female wood ducks ( Aix sponsa ) during brood rearing in different wetland environments in Mississippi (1996-1999) and Alabama (1998-1999). Survival was 0.90 ± 0.05 (Ŝ ± SE) in Mississippi and 0.92 ± 0.07 in Alabama. A composite estimate of female survival for all years and both areas was 0.90 ± 0.04. High survival of females during brood rearing in our study areas suggests that this factor may be less important than other population factors (e.g., duckling survival) influencing fall recruitment in these wood duck populations.

Alabama, Mississippi

A matter of tradeoffs: reintroduction as a multiple objective decision

Decision making in guidance of reintroduction efforts is made challenging by the substantial scientific uncertainty typically involved. However, a less recognized challenge is that the management objectives are often numerous and complex. Decision makers managing reintroduction efforts are often concerned with more than just how to maximize the probability of reintroduction success from a population perspective. Decision makers are also weighing other concerns such as budget limitations, public support and/or opposition, impacts on the ecosystem, and the need to consider not just a single reintroduction effort, but conservation of the entire species. Multiple objective decision analysis is a powerful tool for formal analysis of such complex decisions. We demonstrate the use of multiple objective decision analysis in the case of the Florida non-migratory whooping crane reintroduction effort. In this case, the State of Florida was considering whether to resume releases of captive-reared crane chicks into the non-migratory whooping crane population in that state. Management objectives under consideration included maximizing the probability of successful population establishment, minimizing costs, maximizing public relations benefits, maximizing the number of birds available for alternative reintroduction efforts, and maximizing learning about the demographic patterns of reintroduced whooping cranes. The State of Florida engaged in a collaborative process with their management partners, first, to evaluate and characterize important uncertainties about system behavior, and next, to formally evaluate the tradeoffs between objectives using the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART). The recommendation resulting from this process, to continue releases of cranes at a moderate intensity, was adopted by the State of Florida in late 2008. Although continued releases did not receive support from the International Whooping Crane Recovery Team, this approach does provide a template for the formal, transparent consideration of multiple, potentially competing, objectives in reintroduction decision making.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Book review: Spatial capture-recapture

Understanding how animals use space is a vital aspect of conservation planning and wildlife management. Technological developments (e.g., increased computer power and desktop geographic information system [GIS] applications) are bringing the ability to analyze spatial data sets to the individual biologist. Therefore, it is not surprising that methodologies have been developed to incorporate space into capture-recapture models, which are some of the most fundamental models in the field of wildlife ecology. Spatial Capture-Recapture (hereafter SCR) is a timely and informative contribution that summarizes the history and motivation behind SCR models, in addition to providing details of the methodological framework that allows the reader to develop and customize SCR models to address their own ecological questions. Review info: Spatial Capture-Recapture. By J. Andrew Royle, Richard B. Chandler, Rahel Sollmann, and Beth Gardner, 2014. ISBN: 978-0124059399, 577 pp.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Application of genetics and genomics to wildlife epidemiology

Wildlife diseases can have significant impacts on wildlife conservation and management. Many of the pathogens that affect wildlife also have important implications for domestic animal and human health. However, management interventions to prevent or control wildlife disease are hampered by uncertainties about the complex interactions between pathogens and free-ranging wildlife. We often lack crucial knowledge about host ecology, pathogen characteristics, and host–pathogen dynamics. The purpose of this review is to familiarize wildlife biologists and managers with the application of genetic and genomic methodologies for investigating pathogen and host biology to better understand and manage wildlife diseases. The genesis of this review was a symposium at the 2013 annual Wildlife Society Conference. We reviewed the scientific literature and used our personal experiences to identify studies that illustrate the application of genetic and genomic methods to advance our understanding of wildlife epidemiology, focusing on recent research, new techniques, and innovative approaches. Using examples from a variety of pathogen types and a broad array of vertebrate taxa, we describe how genetics and genomics can provide tools to detect and characterize pathogens, uncover routes of disease transmission and spread, shed light on the ways that disease susceptibility is influenced by both host and pathogen attributes, and elucidate the impacts of disease on wildlife populations. Genetic and increasingly genomic methodologies will continue to contribute important insights into pathogen and host biology that will aid efforts to assess and mitigate the impacts of wildlife diseases on global health and conservation of biodiversity.

Journal of Wildlife Management