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At least 397 records · Page 22Linked to original sources

Simulated Effects of Seasonal Ground-Water Pumpage for Irrigation on Hydrologic Conditions in the Lower Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, Southwestern Georgia and Parts of Alabama and Florida, 1999-2002

To determine the effects of seasonal ground-water pumpage for irrigation, a finite-element ground-water flow model was developed for the Upper Floridan aquifer in the lower Flint River Basin area, including adjacent parts of the Chattahoochee and Apalachicola River Basins. The model simulates withdrawal from the aquifer at 3,280 irrigation, municipal, and industrial wells; stream-aquifer flow between the aquifer and 36 area streams; leakage to and from the overlying upper semiconfining unit; regional ground-water flow at the lateral boundaries of the model; and water-table recharge in areas where the aquifer is at or near land surface. Steady-state calibration to drought conditions of October 1999 indicated that the model could adequately simulate measured groundwater levels at 275 well locations and streamflow gains and losses along 53 reaches of area streams. A transient simulation having 12 monthly stress periods from March 2001 to February 2002 incorporated time-varying stress from irrigation pumpage, stream and lake stage, head in the overlying upper semiconfining unit, and infiltration rates. Analysis of simulated water budgets of the Upper Floridan aquifer provides estimates of the source of water pumped for irrigation. During October 1999, an estimated 127 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of irrigation pumpage from the Upper Floridan aquifer in the model area were simulated to be derived from changes in: stream-aquifer flux (about 56 Mgal/d, or 44 percent); leakage to or from the upper semiconfining unit (about 49 Mgal/d, or 39 percent); regional flow (about 18 Mgal/d, or 14 percent); leakage to or from Lakes Seminole and Blackshear (about 2.7 Mgal/d, or 2 percent); and flux at the Upper Floridan aquifer updip boundary (about 1.8 Mgal/d, or 1 percent). During the 2001 growing season (May-August), estimated irrigation pumpage ranged from about 310 to 830 Mgal/ d, about 79 percent of the 12-month total. During the growing season, irrigation pumpage was derived from decreased discharge or increased recharge of stream-aquifer flux (from about 23 to 39 percent), leakage to or from the upper semiconfining unit (from about 30 to 36 percent), regional flow (from about 8 to 11 percent), Lakes Seminole and Blackshear (about 2 percent), and flux at the Upper Floridan aquifer updip boundary (about 1 percent). Storage effects (decreased storage gain or increased storage loss) contributed from about 11 to 36 percent of irrigation pumpage during the growing season. Water managers can use the model to determine where and how much additional ground-water pumpage for irrigation should be permitted based on a variety of hydrologic constraints. For example, the model results may indicate that in some critical locations, additional ground-water pumpage during a prolonged drought might reduce stream-aquifer flux enough to cause noncompliance of established minimum instream flow conditions.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia

Discharge and dissolved-solids characteristics of Blacks Fork above Smiths Fork, Wyoming, April 2018 through September 2019

The Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Forum was formed in 1973 to coordinate salinity control efforts among the States in the Colorado River Basin, including Wyoming. The Colorado River Salinity Control Act of 1974 (Public Law 93–320) authorized “the construction, operation, and maintenance of certain works in the Colorado River Basin to control the salinity of water delivered to users in the United States and Mexico.” Water-quality standards for salinity in the lower Colorado River Basin were adopted in 1975. To help meet these standards, the Bureau of Reclamation, Natural Resource Conservation Service, and States within the Colorado River Basin have implemented salinity control projects that focus on reducing salt loading associated with irrigated agriculture by improving water delivery systems and water management practices. The term salinity is synonymous with dissolved solids in this report. The Bureau of Reclamation, in conjunction with the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Forum, was interested in determining the contribution of dissolved solids from Blacks Fork above Smiths Fork to the Colorado River and initiated a study of Blacks Fork above Smiths Fork in 2018. In early 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey installed a streamgage at the most downstream location on the Blacks Fork, upstream from the convergence with Smiths Fork, to characterize the stream. The Blacks Fork above Smiths Fork, near Lyman, Wyoming, streamgage (U.S. Geological Survey identifier 09219200) was operated from April 4, 2018, through September 30, 2019, collecting continuous stream stage and specific-conductance data, from which continuous discharge, dissolved-solids concentrations, and dissolved-solids loads were calculated. Seven sites were selected on Blacks Fork and a tributary to describe a snapshot of the discharge and dissolved-solids characteristics. These sites were sampled during July, August, and September 2018 and June, July, August, and September 2019 report. Discharge at the Blacks Fork above Smiths Fork, near Lyman, Wyo., streamgage (09219200) from April through September in 2018 was lower and less variable than during the same period in 2019. The mean daily (mean of the daily means) discharge during those 6 months in 2018 (15.1 cubic feet per second [ft 3 /s]) was about one-tenth of the discharge during the same period in 2019 (152 ft 3 /s). The cumulative monthly discharge during April through September in 2018 was 5,360 acre-feet, about one-tenth of the discharge during the same period in 2019 which was 54,700 acre-feet. Similar differences in discharge between the 2018 and 2019 periods also are noted at other Blacks Fork streamgages in the area. Continuous specific conductance data and the statistical relation between specific conductance and dissolved-solids concentrations were used to calculate the daily mean dissolved-solids concentrations. Dissolved solids often have an inverse relation with discharge because higher discharges typically have a diluting effect that lowers the dissolved-solids concentrations. In general, when discharges at the Blacks Fork above Smiths Fork streamgage (09219200) are higher, dissolved-solids concentrations are generally lower. However, the high dissolved-solids concentrations that are measured during high discharges indicate that the system has natural variability and the dissolved-solids concentrations are determined by more factors than just discharge. The mean daily dissolved-solids concentration during April through September 2018 was 1,630 milligrams per liter and during the same period in 2019 was 1,100 milligrams per liter. Dissolved-solids loads were calculated as the product of the discharge and dissolved-solids concentration. The daily mean dissolved-solids loads during 2018 were typically lower than during 2019. This result is primarily because the discharge was much lower in 2018 than in 2019. Therefore, although the daily mean dissolved-solids concentrations tended to be higher in 2018, the substantially higher discharges in 2019 had more of an effect on the dissolved-solids loads than the dissolved-solids concentrations. The cumulative dissolved-solids load at the Blacks Fork above Smiths Fork, near Lyman, Wyo., streamgage (09219200) during the 18-month study was 81,200 tons, with a mean daily load of 149 tons per day. During the 6-month period from April through September 2018, the cumulative dissolved-solids load at the streamgage was estimated to be 8,740 tons and, during the same 6 months in 2019, the cumulative dissolved-solids load was estimated to be 60,900 tons. During the fall and winter between the two periods, the cumulative dissolved-solids load was 11,600 tons. Discharge and dissolved-solids concentrations from samples collected during the synoptic sampling events were highly variable among most sites during most synoptic sampling events and also highly variable at most sites among different sampling events. The two sites upstream from the tributary input from Threemile Creek had lower dissolved-solids concentrations than sites including and downstream from the tributary. Sites including and downstream from the tributary had similar values and variability of dissolved-solids loads, with the exception of the farthest downstream site at the Blacks Fork above Smiths Fork, near Lyman, Wyo., streamgage (09219200) that tended to have larger dissolved-solids loads and higher variability among synoptic sampling events.

Scientific Investigations Report

Simulated water sources and effects of pumping on surface and ground water, Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

The sandy sediments underlying Cape Cod, Massachusetts, compose an important aquifer that is the sole source of water for a region undergoing rapid development. Population increases and urbanization on Cape Cod lead to two primary environmental effects that relate directly to water supply: (1) adverse effects of land use on the quality of water in the aquifer and (2) increases in pumping that can adversely affect environmentally sensitive surface waters, such as ponds and streams. These considerations are particularly important on the Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses, which underlie the largest and most populous areas on Cape Cod. Numerical models of the two flow lenses were developed to simulate ground-water-flow conditions in the aquifer and to (1) delineate areas at the water table contributing water to wells and (2) estimate the effects of pumping and natural changes in recharge on surface waters. About 350 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of water recharges the aquifer at the water table in this area; most water (about 65 percent) discharges at the coast and most of the remaining water (about 28 percent) discharges into streams. A total of about 24.9 Mgal/d, or about 7 percent, of water in the aquifer is withdrawn for water supply; most pumped water is returned to the hydrologic system as return flow creating a state of near mass balance in the aquifer. Areas at the water table that contribute water directly to production wells total about 17 square miles; some water (about 10 percent) pumped from the wells flows through ponds prior to reaching the wells. Current (2003) steady-state pumping reduces simulated ground-water levels in some areas by more than 4 feet; projected (2020) pumping may reduce water levels by an additional 3 feet or more in these same areas. Current (2003) and future (2020) pumping reduces total streamflow by about 4 and 9 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), corresponding to about 5 percent and 9 percent, respectively, of total streamflow. Natural recharge varies with time, over both monthly and multiyear time scales. Monthly changes in recharge cause pond levels to vary between 1 and 2 feet in an average year; annual changes in recharge, which can be much larger than monthly variations, can cause pond levels to vary by more than 10 feet in some areas over a period of years. Streamflow, which also changes in response to changes in recharge, varies by a factor of two over an average year and can vary more over multiyear periods. On average, monthly pumping ranges from 15.8 Mgal/d in March to 45.3 Mgal/d in August. Pumping and the distribution of return flow can seasonally affect the hydrologic system by lowering ground-water and pond levels and by depleting streamflows, particularly in the summer months. Maximum drawdowns in March and August exceed 3 feet and 6 feet, respectively, for current (2003) pumping. Simulated drawdowns from projected (2020) pumping, relative to water levels representing 2003 pumping conditions, exceed 2 feet in March and 5 feet in August. Current (2003) and future (2020) pumping can decrease pond levels in some areas by more than 3 feet; drawdown generally is largest during the month of August of an average year. Over multiyear periods, seasonal pumping can lower pond levels in some areas by more than 4 feet; the effects of seasonal pumping are largest during periods of reduced recharge. Monthly streamflow depletion varies in individual streams but can exceed 2 ft3/s in some streams. The combined effects of seasonal pumping and drought can reduce pond levels by more than 10 feet below average levels. Water levels in Mary Dunn Pond, which is in an area of large current and projected pumping, are predicted (2020) to decline during drought conditions by about 10.6 feet: about 6.9 feet from lower recharge, about 2.3 feet from current (2003) pumping, and about 1.4 feet from additional future (2020) pumping. The results indicate that pumping generally does not cause substantial streamflow depletion and that the primary effect of pumping is on water levels in ponds. Natural changes in recharge account for most of the variation in pond levels; however, pumping can cause substantial declines in the levels of ponds near pumping wells. Also, the effects of pumping and recharge can combine to cause drawdowns of more than 10 feet in some areas.

Massachusetts

Refinement and evaluation of the Massachusetts firm-yield estimator model version 2.0

The firm yield is the maximum average daily withdrawal that can be extracted from a reservoir without risk of failure during an extended drought period. Previously developed procedures for determining the firm yield of a reservoir were refined and applied to 38 reservoir systems in Massachusetts, including 25 single- and multiple-reservoir systems that were examined during previous studies and 13 additional reservoir systems. Changes to the firm-yield model include refinements to the simulation methods and input data, as well as the addition of several scenario-testing capabilities. The simulation procedure was adapted to run at a daily time step over a 44-year simulation period, and daily streamflow and meteorological data were compiled for all the reservoirs for input to the model. Another change to the model-simulation methods is the adjustment of the scaling factor used in estimating groundwater contributions to the reservoir. The scaling factor is used to convert the daily groundwater-flow rate into a volume by multiplying the rate by the length of reservoir shoreline that is hydrologically connected to the aquifer. Previous firm-yield analyses used a constant scaling factor that was estimated from the reservoir surface area at full pool. The use of a constant scaling factor caused groundwater flows during periods when the reservoir stage was very low to be overestimated. The constant groundwater scaling factor used in previous analyses was replaced with a variable scaling factor that is based on daily reservoir stage. This change reduced instability in the groundwater-flow algorithms and produced more realistic groundwater-flow contributions during periods of low storage. Uncertainty in the firm-yield model arises from many sources, including errors in input data. The sensitivity of the model to uncertainty in streamflow input data and uncertainty in the stage-storage relation was examined. A series of Monte Carlo simulations were performed on 22 reservoirs to assess the sensitivity of firm-yield estimates to errors in daily-streamflow input data. Results of the Monte Carlo simulations indicate that underestimation in the lowest stream inflows can cause firm yields to be underestimated by an average of 1 to 10 percent. Errors in the stage-storage relation can arise when the point density of bathymetric survey measurements is too low. Existing bathymetric surfaces were resampled using hypothetical transects of varying patterns and point densities in order to quantify the uncertainty in stage-storage relations. Reservoir-volume calculations and resulting firm yields were accurate to within 5 percent when point densities were greater than 20 points per acre of reservoir surface. Methods for incorporating summer water-demand-reduction scenarios into the firm-yield model were developed as well as the ability to relax the no-fail reliability criterion. Although the original firm-yield model allowed monthly reservoir releases to be specified, there have been no previous studies examining the feasibility of controlled releases for downstream flows from Massachusetts reservoirs. Two controlled-release scenarios were tested—with and without a summer water-demand-reduction scenario—for a scenario with a no-fail criterion and a scenario that allows for a 1-percent failure rate over the entire simulation period. Based on these scenarios, about one-third of the reservoir systems were able to support the flow-release scenarios at their 2000–2004 usage rates. Reservoirs with higher storage ratios (reservoir storage capacity to mean annual streamflow) and lower demand ratios (mean annual water demand to annual firm yield) were capable of higher downstream release rates. For the purposes of this research, all reservoir systems were assumed to have structures which enable controlled releases, although this assumption may not be true for many of the reservoirs studied.

Massachusetts

Hydrologic characterization of Bushy Park Reservoir, South Carolina, 2013–15

The Bushy Park Reservoir is a relatively shallow impoundment in a semi-tropical climate and is the principal water supply for the 400,000 people of the city of Charleston, South Carolina, and the surrounding areas including the Bushy Park Industrial Complex. Although there is an adequate supply of freshwater in the reservoir, taste-and-odor water-quality issues are a concern. The U.S. Geological Survey conducted an investigation in cooperation with the Charleston Water System to study the hydrology and hydrodynamics of the Bushy Park Reservoir to identify factors affecting water-quality conditions. Specifically, five areas for monitoring and (or) analysis were addressed: (1) hydrologic monitoring of the reservoir to establish a water budget, (2) flow monitoring in the tunnels to compute flow from Bushy Park Reservoir and at critical distribution junctions, (3) water-quality sampling, profiling, and continuous monitoring to identify the causes of taste-and-odor occurrence, (4) technical evaluation of appropriate hydrodynamic and water-quality simulation models for the reservoir, and (5) preliminary evaluation of alternative reservoir operations scenarios. This report describes the hydrodynamic and hydrologic data collected from 2013 to 2015 to support the application and calibration of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and the water-quality monitoring and analysis to gain insight into the principal causes of the Bushy Park Reservoir taste-and-odor episodes. The existing U.S. Geological Survey real-time network on the West Branch of the Cooper River was augmented with a tidal flow gage on Durham Canal Back River, and Foster Creek. The Charleston Water System intake structure was instrumented to collect water-level, water temperature (top and bottom probes), specific conductance (top and bottom probes), wind speed and direction, and photosynthetically active radiation data. In addition to the gages attached to fixed structures, four bottom-mounted velocity profilers were deployed at six locations over different periods. The deployment period for the velocity profiler ranged from 2 weeks to 4 months. During the investigation, tidal cycle (13-hour) streamflow measurements were made at 30-minute intervals at five locations. The Williams Station is a coal-fired powerplant that withdraws water from Bushy Park Reservoir for cooling purposes. The magnitude of the withdrawal (approximately 550 million gallons per day) is the major factor controlling the circulation in the reservoir. The net flow in Durham Canal to the reservoir is comparable to the withdrawal rates of the powerplant. When the Williams Station is not withdrawing water, the net flow in Durham Canal quickly goes to zero or reverses with a net flow away from the reservoir and to the Cooper River. Plan views of the velocity vectors for the tidal cycle streamflow measurements and rose diagram of the velocity profilers created with the Williams Station withdrawing and not withdrawing water show substantial effects of the distribution of magnitude and direction of the water velocities.

South Carolina

Colored shaded-relief bathymetric and acoustic-backscatter maps of Jenkinson Lake with orthomosaic of the Sly Park Creek and Hazel Creek area, California

The Caldor Fire was ignited on August 14, 2021, and burned almost 222,000 acres (898 square kilometers) in forested terrain of the central and western Sierra Nevada, California. During the subsequent two months, the fire burned nearly all of Sly Park Creek watershed in El Dorado County. The El Dorado Irrigation District manages the water supply for the area using storage in Jenkinson Lake, a 1.6-kilometer- (1.0-mile-) wide and 3.6-kilometer- (2.2-mile-) long reservoir, located south of the town of Pollock Pines. Several weeks after the fire, the U.S. Geological Survey began investigations into post-fire landscape responses, including sediment yield, by measuring new sediment deposition in Jenkinson Lake. This study focused on the collection and processing of bathymetric and acoustic-backscatter data, as well as onshore aerial imagery in and around Jenkinson Lake, to support wildfire science after the Caldor Fire. A colored shaded-relief bathymetric map (sheet 1) and an acoustic backscatter map (sheet 2) show the lake floor morphology and backscatter intensities.

California

Comparison of base flows to selected streamflow statistics representative of 1930-2002 in West Virginia

Base flows were compared with published streamflow statistics to assess climate variability and to determine the published statistics that can be substituted for annual and seasonal base flows of unregulated streams in West Virginia. The comparison study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection, Division of Water and Waste Management. The seasons were defined as winter (January 1-March 31), spring (April 1-June 30), summer (July 1-September 30), and fall (October 1-December 31). Differences in mean annual base flows for five record sub-periods (1930-42, 1943-62, 1963-69, 1970-79, and 1980-2002) range from -14.9 to 14.6 percent when compared to the values for the period 1930-2002. Differences between mean seasonal base flows and values for the period 1930-2002 are less variable for winter and spring, -11.2 to 11.0 percent, than for summer and fall, -47.0 to 43.6 percent. Mean summer base flows (July-September) and mean monthly base flows for July, August, September, and October are approximately equal, within 7.4 percentage points of mean annual base flow. The mean of each of annual, spring, summer, fall, and winter base flows are approximately equal to the annual 50-percent (standard error of 10.3 percent), 45-percent (error of 14.6 percent), 75-percent (error of 11.8 percent), 55-percent (error of 11.2 percent), and 35-percent duration flows (error of 11.1 percent), respectively. The mean seasonal base flows for spring, summer, fall, and winter are approximately equal to the spring 50- to 55-percent (standard error of 6.8 percent), summer 45- to 50-percent (error of 6.7 percent), fall 45-percent (error of 15.2 percent), and winter 60-percent duration flows (error of 8.5 percent), respectively. Annual and seasonal base flows representative of the period 1930-2002 at unregulated streamflow-gaging stations and ungaged locations in West Virginia can be estimated using previously published values of statistics and procedures.

West Virginia

Water and nutrient budgets for Vancouver Lake, Vancouver, Washington, October 2010-October 2012

Vancouver Lake, a large shallow lake in Clark County, near Vancouver, Washington, has been undergoing water-quality problems for decades. Recently, the biggest concern for the lake are the almost annual harmful cyanobacteria blooms that cause the lake to close for recreation for several weeks each summer. Despite decades of interest in improving the water quality of the lake, fundamental information on the timing and amount of water and nutrients entering and exiting the lake is lacking. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a 2-year field study to quantify water flows and nutrient loads in order to develop water and nutrient budgets for the lake. This report presents monthly and annual water and nutrient budgets from October 2010–October 2012 to identify major sources and sinks of nutrients. Lake River, a tidally influenced tributary to the lake, flows into and out of the lake almost daily and composed the greatest proportion of both the water and nutrient budgets for the lake, often at orders of magnitude greater than any other source. From the water budget, we identified precipitation, evaporation and groundwater inflow as minor components of the lake hydrologic cycle, each contributing 1 percent or less to the total water budget. Nutrient budgets were compiled monthly and annually for total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and orthophosphate; and, nitrogen loads were generally an order of magnitude greater than phosphorus loads across all sources. For total nitrogen, flow from Lake River at Felida, Washington, made up 88 percent of all inputs into the lake. For total phosphorus and orthophosphate, Lake River at Felida flowing into the lake was 91 and 76 percent of total inputs, respectively. Nutrient loads from precipitation and groundwater inflow were 1 percent or less of the total budgets. Nutrient inputs from Burnt Bridge Creek and Flushing Channel composed 12 percent of the total nitrogen budget, 8 percent of the total phosphorus budget, and 21 percent of the orthophosphate budget. We identified several data gaps and areas for future research, which include the need for better understanding nutrient inputs to the lake from sediment resuspension and better quantification of indirect nutrient inputs to the lake from Salmon Creek.

Washington

Introduction and methods of analysis for peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. Flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This chapter summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flow. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The climate data consist of monthly time series estimates of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, soil moisture storage, snow water equivalent, and runoff on a 3.1-mile by 3.1-mile grid for the conterminous United States. Statistical and graphical analyses were used to investigate potential changes in hydrology and climate. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. To examine potential causal drivers of changes, the climate data were analyzed graphically and statistically. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Mon

Implications of water, sediment, and nutrient budgets for the restoration of a shallow, turbid lake in semiarid southeastern Oregon

Malheur Lake is the largest lake in the endorheic Harney Basin in southeastern Oregon. Since the 1990s, Malheur Lake—which averages depths of about 1 meter—has been in a degraded, turbid state lacking submergent and emergent vegetation. The goals of this study were to identify the major sources of sediment and nutrients to Malheur Lake to determine the importance of managing nutrients for lake restoration. Discrete water samples were analyzed for nutrient (total phosphorus, total nitrogen, orthophosphate, nitrate+nitrite, and ammonia) and suspended-sediment concentrations, and additional parameters including chlorophyll- a and phytoplankton biomass were measured in lake samples. Lake area fluctuated from a minimum of 3,300 hectares (ha) to a maximum of 11,300 ha in water years 2019 and 2020. In water year 2019, inflow from the tributaries created a 1,400-hectare area in the lake with low turbidity that persisted for multiple months. Land-use practices and water diversions along the tributaries affected the hydrographs and nutrient and suspended-sediment concentrations reaching the lake. As lake area increased, storage of sediment-associated constituents in the water column increased in excess of external loads because of resuspension. In 2019, 69 percent of the increase in suspended-sediment storage in the water column was attributed to internal resuspension and 31 percent was from external loading. Sediment was deposited as lake area decreased, and water-column storage decreased even as positive external loading continued. The internal resuspension, deposition, and external loading of suspended sediment likely is decreasing topographic heterogeneity in the lake. Concentrations of total phosphorus and orthophosphate are substantially higher than in the 1980s, and the lake is eutrophic. Phytoplankton in the lake was light limited in 2019–20, and restoration actions that prioritize vegetation establishment would reduce bioavailable nutrients for phytoplankton while increasing light in the water column.

Oregon

Hydrologic effects of potential changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio

This report presents the results of a study to provide information on the hydrologic effects of potential 21st-century changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio (from Circleville, Ohio, to the headwaters). A precipitation-runoff model, calibrated on the basis of historical climate and streamflow data, was used to simulate the effects of climate change on streamflows and reservoir water levels at several locations in the basin. Two levels of simulations were done. The first level of simulation (level 1) accounted only for anticipated 21st-century changes in climate and operations of three City of Columbus upground reservoirs located in northwest Delaware County, Ohio. The second level of simulation (level 2) accounted for development-driven changes in land cover and water use in addition to changes in climate and reservoir operations. A statistical change-factor approach was used to construct future climate time series that were used in the precipitation-runoff model to compute time series of future streamflows and reservoir water levels. Monthly change factors were computed by determining differences or fractional changes between baseline historical climate time series and future climate time series consisting of outputs from selected global climate models that were included in the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Eight sets of change factors were determined on the basis of outputs from four global climate models, each of which was run under two greenhouse-gas scenarios (the “A1b” and “A2” scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 4th assessment). The 4 global climate models whose data were used in this study were selected to represent a wide range of potential climate outcomes as compared to the entire range of potential climate outcomes associated with the 16 global climate models represented in the CMIP3 multimodel dataset. Future land-cover and water-use data were estimated for use in the level-2 precipitation-runoff simulations to account for development-driven changes in land cover and water use. Future land-cover characteristics were estimated for selected future years based on population projections and zoning plans for communities in the basin. Future water-use data for major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities were estimated from current per capita water use, population projections for 2035, and population projections for 2090 assuming full build-out. A statistical change-factor-based approach was used to estimate future water-use characteristics by major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities on the basis of reference-period historical water uses. Annual change factors that were determined for future years other than 2035 and 2090 (when the change factors could be explicitly computed) were estimated by interpolating or extrapolating linearly in time. Water uses by entities other than major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities were assumed to remain unchanged because of uncertainty about if and (or) how they might change. Results from the level-1 simulations were analyzed primarily to facilitate evaluation of climate-driven temporal changes in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow and water-level characteristics, as well as in maximum and minimum 7-, 30-, and 180-day average streamflow and reservoir water levels. Results from the level-2 simulations were analyzed to help evaluate and contrast (relative to level-1 results) the effects of the added development-related factors on maximums and minimum 7-, 30-, and 180-day average streamflows and reservoir water levels and duration characteristics of 7- and 30-day average streamflows and reservoir water levels. Results for 12 stream locations and 5 reservoirs in the Upper Scioto River Basin are presented primarily as a series of plots. Although it is beyond the scope of this study to address results in detail for each model-output location, selected results are discussed to illustrate potential uses and interpretations of the graph products provided in this report. In addition, general trends and patterns in streamflow and water-level characteristics are identified where possible.

Ohio

Effects of the 1998 Drought on the Freshwater Lens in the Laura Area, Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands

Lower than average rainfall during late 1997 and early 1998 in Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands, caused a drought and severe drinking-water shortage. Majuro depends on a public rainfall catchment system, which uses an airport runway and storage reservoirs. The storage reservoirs can supply water for about 30 to 50 days without replenishment. In February 1998, after a few months with less than one inch of rainfall per month, a drought-related disaster was declared. Reverse-osmosis water-purification systems were brought to Majuro to help alleviate the water shortage. Concurrent with the water-purification program, ground water from a freshwater lens in the Laura area of the atoll was pumped at increased rates. Of the total consumed water during this period, ground water from Laura supplied between 90 percent (March 1998) and 64 percent (May 1998) of the drinking water. Due to public concern, a study was initiated to determine the effects of the drought on the freshwater lens. The areal extent of the freshwater lens is about 350 acres. A monitoring-well network, consisting of multiple wells driven to varying depths at 11 sites, was installed to determine the thickness of the freshwater lens. Similar locations relative to an earlier study were chosen so that the data from this study could be compared to 1984-85 data. At the end of the drought in June 1998, the freshwater near the middle of the lens was about 45 feet thick; and at the north and south ends, the freshwater was about 25 to 38 feet thick, respectively. Monitoring of the freshwater lens was continued through the wet season following the drought. The lens increased in thickness by 1 to 8 feet after 7 months of rainfall. Greater increases in lens thickness were measured on the lagoon side than on the ocean side of the freshwater lens. Lens thickness during August 1998, and seasonal variation of lens thickness in 1998, were compared to data collected in 1984-85. Comparison of lens thickness from the different years yielded an inconsistent result; the lens was not uniformly thicker in 1984-85 despite more rainfall and little or no pumpage during this time. Seasonal variation in 1998-99 was greater than seasonal variation in 1984-85 due to differences in seasonal rainfall and pumpage. The change in lens thickness suggested by the comparison between 1998-99 and 1984-85 data was complicated by effects due to different well locations, different wells, and assumed small-scale variability in the thickness of fine and coarse calcareous sediments. This result suggests that a monitoring program that uses the same wells through time is needed to adequately describe long-term variability in lens thickness.

Scientific Investigations Report

Reconnaissance of Surface-Water Quality and Possible Sources of Nutrients and Bacteria in the Turkey Creek Watershed, Northwest Oklahoma, 2002-2003

The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Oklahoma Department of Environmental Quality and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency investigated the distribution of surface-water quality and possible sources of nutrients and Escherichia coli bacteria to surface water in Turkey Creek, which flows about 70 miles through mostly rural agricultural areas in northwest Oklahoma. Results show that discharge on the main stem of Turkey Creek increased during low-flow conditions from an average of 5.4 cubic feet per second at the upper most site to 39 cubic feet per second at the lower most site in the watershed, indicating that Turkey Creek gains water from ground-water discharge. A portion of the increase in stream discharge may be from discharges of treated effluent from city sewage lagoons. However, the volume and frequency of discharges are unknown. Surface-water-quality samples show that specific conductance ranged from 1,180 to 1,740 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius during low-flow conditions and in general, decreased downstream with site 1 or site 2 having the largest measurement and site 5 having the lowest. The pH values were slightly alkaline and ranged from 6.8 to 8.5 with a median of 8.2. Dissolved oxygen ranged from 9.3 to 15.9 milligrams per liter in samples collected in the months of November, February, and March and ranged from 5.3 to 13.9 milligrams per liter in samples collected in the months of June, July, and August. Surface-water-quality samples show that the median concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen (1.16 milligrams per liter) and total phosphorus (0.275 milligram per liter) are larger than the average median concentrations of 0.35 and 0.083 milligram per liter, respectively, calculated from water-quality sites in Oklahoma and part of Arkansas (excluding sites in the Ozark Highland and the Ouachita Mountains ecoregions) having similar stream orders and stream slopes. Concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen increased slightly in the winter months and decreased in the summer months, whereas, concentrations of total phosphorus and orthophosphate as phosphorus tended to increase during the summer months and decrease in the winter months. During high-flow conditions total phosphorus increased 7.7 times above the average concentration of 0.261 milligram per liter in low-flow samples. Orthophosphate concentrations increased 3.5 to 4 times during high-flow conditions. Almost all low-flow samples showed 15N values between 4 and 10 parts per thousand, above the range for atmospheric nitrogen and synthetic fertilizer and below the range for animal waste. These samples may represent a mixture of nitrate from these two sources and other sources enriched with 15N, such as soils and plants. Results of the bacterial source tracking indicated that the two source groups having the greatest number of ribopattern matches with surface-water isolates were the cattle group, 53 isolates or 23.5 percent, and the human group, 41 isolates or 18.2 percent. Fewer surface-water isolates matched the deer and horse groups, 8.0 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. About 43 percent or 96 surface-water isolates were not matched to any source group.

Scientific Investigations Report

Community exposure to tsunami hazards in California

Evidence of past events and modeling of potential events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to low-lying communities on the California coast. To reduce potential impacts of future tsunamis, officials need to understand how communities are vulnerable to tsunamis and where targeted outreach, preparedness, and mitigation efforts may be warranted. Although a maximum tsunami-inundation zone based on multiple sources has been developed for the California coast, the populations and businesses in this zone have not been documented in a comprehensive way. To support tsunami preparedness and risk-reduction planning in California, this study documents the variations among coastal communities in the amounts, types, and percentages of developed land, human populations, and businesses in the maximum tsunami-inundation zone. The tsunami-inundation zone includes land in 94 incorporated cities, 83 unincorporated communities, and 20 counties on the California coast. According to 2010 U.S. Census Bureau data, this tsunami-inundation zone contains 267,347 residents (1 percent of the 20-county resident population), of which 13 percent identify themselves as Hispanic or Latino, 14 percent identify themselves as Asian, 16 percent are more than 65 years in age, 12 percent live in unincorporated areas, and 51 percent of the households are renter occupied. Demographic attributes related to age, race, ethnicity, and household status of residents in tsunami-prone areas demonstrate substantial range among communities that exceed these regional averages. The tsunami-inundation zone in several communities also has high numbers of residents in institutionalized and noninstitutionalized group quarters (for example, correctional facilities and military housing, respectively). Communities with relatively high values in the various demographic categories are identified throughout the report. The tsunami-inundation zone contains significant nonresidential populations based on 2011 economic data from Infogroup (2011), including 168,565 employees (2 percent of the 20-county labor force) at 15,335 businesses that generate approximately $30 billion in annual sales. Although the regional percentage of at-risk employees is low, certain communities, such as Belvedere, Alameda, and Crescent City, have high percentages of their local workforce in the tsunami-inundation zone. Employees in the tsunami-inundation zone are primarily in businesses associated with tourism (for example, accommodations, food services, and retail trade) and shipping (for example, transportation and warehousing, manufacturing, and wholesale trade), although the dominance of these sectors varies substantially among the 94 cities. Although the number of occupants is not known for each site, the tsunami-inundation zone contains numerous dependent-population facilities, such as schools and child daycare centers, which may have individuals with limited mobility. The tsunami-inundation zone includes a substantial number of facilities that provide community services, such as banks, religious organizations, and grocery stores, where local residents may be unaware of evacuation procedures if previous awareness efforts focused on home preparedness. There are also numerous recreational areas in the tsunami-inundation zone, such as amusement parks, marinas, city and county beaches, and State and national parks, which attract visitors who may not be aware of tsunami hazards or evacuation procedures. During peak summer months, estimated daily attendance at city and county beaches can be approximately six times larger than the total number of residents in the tsunami-inundation zone. Community exposure to tsunamis in California varies considerably—some communities may experience great losses that reflect only a small part of their community and others may experience relatively small losses that devastate them. Among 94 incorporated communities and the remaining unincorporated areas of the 20 coastal counties, the communities of Alameda, Oakland, Long Beach, Los Angeles, Huntington Beach, and San Diego have the highest number of people and businesses in the tsunami-inundation zone. The communities of Belvedere, Alameda, Crescent City, Emeryville, Seal Beach, and Sausalito have the highest percentages of people and businesses in this zone. On the basis of a composite index, the cities of Alameda, Belvedere, Crescent City, Emeryville, Oakland, and Long Beach have the highest combinations of the number and percentage of people and businesses in tsunami-prone areas.

California

Evaluation of long-term water-level declines in basalt aquifers near Mosier, Oregon

The Mosier area lies along the Columbia River in northwestern Wasco County between the cities of Hood River and The Dalles, Oregon. Major water uses in the area are irrigation, municipal supply for the city of Mosier, and domestic supply for rural residents. The primary source of water is groundwater from the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG) aquifers that underlie the area. Concerns regarding this supply of water arose in the mid-1970s, when groundwater levels in the orchard tract area began to steadily decline. In the 1980s, the Oregon Water Resources Department (OWRD) conducted a study of the aquifer system, which resulted in delineation of an administrative area where parts of the Pomona and Priest Rapids aquifers were withdrawn from further appropriations for any use other than domestic supply. Despite this action, water levels continued to drop at approximately the same, nearly constant annual rate of about 4 feet per year, resulting in a current total decline of between 150 and 200 feet in many wells with continued downward trends. In 2005, the Mosier Watershed Council and the Wasco Soil and Water Conservation District began a cooperative investigation of the groundwater system with the U.S. Geological Survey. The objectives of the study were to advance the scientific understanding of the hydrology of the basin, to assess the sustainability of the water supply, to evaluate the causes of persistent groundwater-level declines, and to evaluate potential management strategies. An additional U.S. Geological Survey objective was to advance the understanding of CRBG aquifers, which are the primary source of water across a large part of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. In many areas, significant groundwater level declines have resulted as these aquifers were heavily developed for agricultural, municipal, and domestic water supplies. Three major factors were identified as possible contributors to the water-level declines in the study area: (1) pumping at rates that are not sustainable, (2) well construction practices that have resulted in leakage from aquifers into springs and streams, and (3) reduction in aquifer recharge resulting from long-term climate variations. Historical well construction practices, specifically open, unlined, uncased boreholes that result in cross-connecting (or commingling) multiple aquifers, allow water to flow between these aquifers. Water flowing along the path of least resistance, through commingled boreholes, allows the drainage of aquifers that previously stored water more efficiently. The study area is in the eastern foothills of the Cascade Range in north central Oregon in a transitional zone between the High Cascades to the west and the Columbia Plateau to the east. The 78-square mile (mi 2 ) area is defined by the drainages of three streams - Mosier Creek (51.8 mi 2 ), Rock Creek (13.9 mi 2 ), and Rowena Creek (6.9 mi 2 ) - plus a small area that drains directly to the Columbia River.The three major components of the study are: (1) a 2-year intensive data collection period to augment previous streamflow and groundwater-level measurements, (2) precipitation-runoff modeling of the watersheds to determine the amount of recharge to the aquifer system, and (3) groundwater-flow modeling and analysis to evaluate the cause of groundwater-level declines and to evaluate possible water resource management strategies. Data collection included the following: 1. Water-level measurements were made in 37 wells. Bi-monthly or quarterly measurements were made in 30 wells, and continuous water-level monitoring instruments were installed in 7 wells. The measurements principally were made to capture the seasonal patterns in the groundwater system, and to augment the available long-term record. 2. Groundwater pumping was measured, reported, or estimated from irrigation, municipal and domestic wells. Flowmeters were installed on 74 percent of all high-capacity irrigation wells in the study area. 3. Borehole geophysical data were collected from a known commingling well. These data measured geologic properties and vertical flow through the well. 4. Streamflow measurements were made in Rock, Rowena, and Mosier Creeks. A long-term recording stream-gaging station was reestablished on Mosier Creek to provide a continuous record of streamflow. Streamflow measurements also were made along the creeks periodically to evaluate seasonal patterns of exchange between streams and the groundwater system. Major findings from the study include: 1. Annual average precipitation ranges from 20 to 54 inches across the study area with an average value of about 30 inches. Based on rainfall-runoff modeling, about one-third of this water infiltrates into the aquifer system. 2. Currently, about 3 percent of the water infiltrated into the groundwater system is extracted for municipal, agricultural, and rural residential use. The remainder of the water flows through the aquifer system, discharging into local streams and the Columbia River. About 80 percent of recent pumping supports crop production. The city of Mosier public supply wells account for about 10 percent of total pumping, with the remaining 10 percent being pumped from the private wells of rural residents. 3. Groundwater-flow simulation results indicate that leakage through commingling wells is a significant and likely the dominant cause of water level declines. Leakage patterns can be complex, but most of the leaked water likely flows out the CRBG aquifer system through very permeable sediments into Mosier Creek and its tributary streams in the OWRD administrative area. Model-derived estimates attribute 80-90 percent of the declines to commingling, with pumping accounting for the remaining 10-20 percent. Although decadal trends in precipitation have occurred, associated changes in aquifer recharge are likely not a significant contributor to the current water level declines. 4. As many as 150 wells might be commingling. To evaluate whether or not the local combination of geology and well construction have resulted in aquifer commingling at a particular well, the well needs to be tested by measuring intraborehole flow. During geophysical testing of one known commingling well, the flow rate through the well between aquifers ranged between 70 and 135 gallons per minute (11-22 percent of total annual pumping in the study area). Historically, when aquifer water levels were 150-200 feet higher, this flow rate would have been correspondingly higher. 5. Because aquifer commingling through well boreholes is likely the dominant cause of aquifer declines, flow simulations were conducted to evaluate the benefit of repairing wells in specified locations and the benefit of recharging aquifers using diverted flow from study area creeks. As part of this analysis, maps were generated that show which areas are more vulnerable to commingling. These maps indicate that the value of repairing wells in the area generally coincident with the OWRD administrative area is higher than in areas farther upstream in the watershed. Simulation results also indicate that artificial recharge of the aquifers using diverted creek water will not significantly improve water levels in the aquifer system unless at least some commingling wells are repaired first. Repairs would entail construction of wells in a manner that prevents commingling of multiple aquifers. The value of artificially recharging the aquifers improves as more wells are repaired because the aquifer system more efficiently stores water.

Oregon

Evaluation of Water-Chemistry and Water-Level Data at the Henderson Road Superfund Site, Upper Merion Township, Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, 1991-2008

Several shutdown-rebound tests have been conducted at the Henderson Road Superfund Site, which has been on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Priorities List since 1984. For a given test, the extraction wells are turned off, and water samples are collected from selected monitor wells at regular intervals before and during cessation of pumping to monitor for changes in chemical concentrations. A long-term shutdown-rebound test began on July 17, 2006. In support of this test, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted this study to determine the effects of shutting down on-site extraction wells on concentrations of selected contaminants and water levels. Concentrations were compared to ARARs (applicable relevant and appropriate requirements), which were set as remediation goals in the Henderson Road Site Record of Decision. Water from 10 wells in and near the source area and to the north, northeast, and northwest of the source area sampled in 2008 exceeded the 5.52 ug/L (micrograms per liter) ARAR for benzene. The greatest changes in benzene concentration between pre-shutdown samples collected in July 2006 and samples collected in February and March 2008 (19 months after the shutdown) were for wells in and north of the source area; increases in benzene concentration ranged from 1.5 to 164 ug/L. Water from five wells in the source area and to the north and northwest of the source area sampled in 2008 exceeded the 60 ug/L ARAR for chlorobenzene. The greatest changes in chlorobenzene concentration between pre-shutdown samples collected in July 2006 and samples collected in February and March 2008 were for wells north of the source area; increases in chlorobenzene concentration ranged from 6.9 to 99 ug/L. The highest concentrations of chlorobenzene were near or outside the northern site boundary, indicating chlorobenzene may have moved north away from the source area; however, no monitor well clusters are on the northern side of the Pennsylvania Turnpike, which is about 190 feet north of the source area. A much larger area was affected by chlorobenzene than benzene. Chlorobenzene concentrations decreased in the source area and increased at and beyond the site boundary. Water from four wells in and northeast of the source area sampled in 2008 exceeded the 5.06 ug/L ARAR for 1,1-dichloroethane (1,1-DCA). Increases in 1,1-DCA concentration between pre-shutdown samples collected in July 2006 and samples collected in February 2008 ranged from 0.4 to 20 ug/L. Water from two wells in the source area sampled in 2008 exceeded the 175 ug/L ARAR for total xylene. The 1,1-DCA and xylene plumes appear to extend in an east-northeast direction from the source area. Large drawdowns in the Upper Merion Reservoir during droughts in 1998 and 2001 affected water levels in the Chester Valley and at the Henderson Road Site, except for well HR-17-170. After the drought of 2001, water levels in the Chester Valley showed a protracted recovery lasting from September 2001 until June 2005 (46 months). Water-level data were evaluated temporally for 1997-2008 and spatially for (1) June 16, 2003, when the extraction wells were pumping at the full rate prior to the start of the June 2003 shutdown test; (2) July 10, 2006, during the period of reduced pumping after the June 2003 shutdown test; and (3) February 25-29, 2008, when the extraction wells were not pumping. Except for well HR-5-195, wells were categorized as shallow, intermediate-depth, and deep wells. The potentiometric surface for shallow wells did not appear to be affected by pumping of the extraction wells. The general direction of ground-water flow was to the north. The potentiometric surface for intermediate-depth wells showed a cone of depression when the extraction wells were pumping at the full rate but did not show a cone of depression when the extraction wells were pumping at the reduced rate. The ground-water-flow direction was toward the north and northeast, similar to

Scientific Investigations Report

Salinas Valley integrated hydrologic and reservoir operations models, Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties, California

The area surrounding the Salinas Valley groundwater basin in Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties of California is a highly productive agricultural area, contributes substantially to the local economy, and provides a substantial portion of vegetables and other agricultural commodities to the Nation. This region of California provides about half of the Nation’s lettuce, celery, broccoli, and spinach each year. Thus, this agricultural area provides substantial volumes of agricultural products not just for California but for the United States. Changes in population and increased agricultural development, which includes a shift toward more water-intensive crops, and climate variability, have put increasing demand on both surface-water and groundwater resources in the valley. This situation has resulted in water management challenges in the Salinas Valley that generally relate to the distribution of the water supply throughout the basin. Where and when the water is present in the surface and subsurface does not coincide with where and when the water is needed. Historically, to deal with the distribution issue, water has been used conjunctively in the valley. Conjunctive use is a water management strategy that coordinates surface-water and groundwater use to maximize water availability. Groundwater is used throughout the Salinas Valley to meet water demands when surface-water supplies are insufficient. The availability of surface water is constrained by climate. Precipitation and streamflow vary seasonally and year to year. Although there are two reservoirs in the Salinas Valley to capture and store water during wet periods, the only conveyance of reservoir water to coastal agricultural areas is the Salinas River. Increasing demand for groundwater and surface-water resources throughout the Salinas Valley has resulted in undesirable effects from unsustainable water use, such as surface-water depletion, groundwater-level declines, storage depletion in the principal aquifers, and seawater intrusion. To address these escalating issues, local communities, water management agencies, and groundwater sustainability agencies are evaluating how to sustainably manage both their surface-water and groundwater resources. To meet water demands and reduce the undesirable effects of unsustainable water use, continued conjunctive management of surface water and groundwater would ideally incorporate strategies to deal with increases in demand and climate variability. To evaluate the challenging water management issues in the Salinas Valley, the U.S. Geological Survey, Monterey County Water Resources Agency, and the Salinas Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency developed a comprehensive suite of models that represent the Salinas Valley hydrogeologic system called the Salinas Valley System Model. The geologic framework is known as the Salinas Valley Geologic Framework and was developed to characterize the subsurface using various topographic and geologic data sources, including information on hydrogeologic units, their surfaces and extents, geologic structures, lithology, and elevations from borehole data and cross sections, as well as details on faults and existing models. The surface-water model is called the Salinas Valley Watershed Model and simulates the Salinas River watershed. Monthly surface-water inflows into the integrated hydrologic model domain were simulated using the Salinas Valley Watershed Model. The historical model uses historical climate data, water and land use data, and reservoir releases to simulate agricultural operations, including landscape water demands, diversions, and reclaimed wastewater. The operational model adds an embedded reservoir operations framework to the simulation of the historical model that allows specified operational rules to simulate reservoir releases and changes in reservoir storage. The operational model assumes current reservoir operations and constant land use, which differs from historical conditions. Thus, the operational model is a hypothetical baseline model that can be used by local water managers to evaluate and quantify potential benefits of water supply projects. Together, the geologic framework, watershed, historical, and operational models form a tool that can be used to simulate irrigated agriculture and associated reservoir operations of the integrated hydrologic system of the Salinas Valley.

California

Quantifying components of the hydrologic cycle in Virginia using chemical hydrograph separation and multiple regression analysis

This study by the U.S. Geological Survey, prepared in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, quantifies the components of the hydrologic cycle across the Commonwealth of Virginia. Long-term, mean fluxes were calculated for precipitation, surface runoff, infiltration, total evapotranspiration (ET), riparian ET, recharge, base flow (or groundwater discharge) and net total outflow. Fluxes of these components were first estimated on a number of real-time-gaged watersheds across Virginia. Specific conductance was used to distinguish and separate surface runoff from base flow. Specific-conductance data were collected every 15 minutes at 75 real-time gages for approximately 18 months between March 2007 and August 2008. Precipitation was estimated for 1971–2000 using PRISM climate data. Precipitation and temperature from the PRISM data were used to develop a regression-based relation to estimate total ET. The proportion of watershed precipitation that becomes surface runoff was related to physiographic province and rock type in a runoff regression equation. Component flux estimates from the watersheds were transferred to flux estimates for counties and independent cities using the ET and runoff regression equations. Only 48 of the 75 watersheds yielded sufficient data, and data from these 48 were used in the final runoff regression equation. The base-flow proportion for the 48 watersheds averaged 72 percent using specific conductance, a value that was substantially higher than the 61 percent average calculated using a graphical-separation technique (the USGS program PART). Final results for the study are presented as component flux estimates for all counties and independent cities in Virginia.

Virginia