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USGS2026

Bottom-up characterization of geologic methane emissions in the San Juan Basin in the southwestern USA

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and global warming. The current global methane budget has large uncertainties, and a better understanding of the budget would help to guide strategies for reducing anthropogenic emissions to fight climate change. Natural geologic methane emissions are a particularly poorly constrained source, with top-down estimates from 14 C in ice cores suggesting much lower geologic emissions than bottom-up scaling of direct flux measurements. Our study aims to contribute to resolving this discrepancy through improved bottom-up characterization of geologic methane seepage in the San Juan Basin in southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico, USA. We performed 983 new flux chamber measurements in this basin during summer 2022 and winter 2023 field campaigns. Our results, in combination with prior measurements, suggest that natural seepage in the San Juan Basin only occurs on or near the Fruitland coal outcrop. Specifically, our new measurements confirm previous measurements of seepage along the northwestern exposure of the Fruitland outcrop in Colorado (a known hydrodynamic overpressure region) and for the first time, identified seepage locations along the southernmost Fruitland outcrop exposure in New Mexico, in association with a coal cleat and a fault. Overall, seepage along the Fruitland coal outcrop is heterogeneously distributed, with both positive and negative (interpreted as microbial soil sink) methane fluxes. Features that are hypothesized to be predictive of seepage (e.g., faults) were not associated with positive methane fluxes in areas outside of the Fruitland outcrop. Our best estimate for total geologic methane seepage in the San Juan Basin from spatial interpolation and statistical upscaling is approximately 0.14 Tg CH 4 /yr, with a range from 0.029 to 0.48 Tg CH 4 /yr. This best-estimate value is lower than a previous bottom-up estimate from a gridded seepage inventory, but higher than a previous top-down estimate.

Colorado, New Mexico↗

USGS1986

Water-quality appraisal of NASQAN stations below impoundments, eastern Tennessee

The National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) is a network of stations at which systematic and continuing water-quality data are collected. Major objectives of this U.S. Geological Survey program are (1) to depict areal variability of streamflow and water-quality conditions nationwide on a year-by-year basis and (2) to detect long-term changes in streamflow and stream quality. Several NASQAN stations in East Tennessee are downstream from impoundments which have a significant effect on water quality. NASQAN data obtained from the Tennessee River below Watts Bar Dam and the Clinch River below Melton Hill Dam were compared to water-quality data from the basins upstream. The comparison indicates that NASQAN data obtained below impoundment may not be adequate to describe a composite picture of water quality in the accounting unit. Detention time of storage in the impoundments is believed to moderate the range of constituent values observed at the NASQAN stations. Data obtained upstream and downstream from Watts Bar Dam indicate that the water sampled at the NASQAN station comes from stratified layers of the impoundment and is not representative of an integrated sample of water from the impoundment. Values of total recoverable iron suggest that, because of adsorption to sediments in impoundments, some constituents are not accurately described by sampling below impoundments. Relations between water-quality constituents and flow at stations on the Clinch River and Tennessee River are not well defined due to regulation. Direct load computations for many constituents were therefore not possible, which diminished the utility of data from these NASQAN stations to account for quantity versus quality of the water. Load computations were only possible for ionic constituents through use of a continuous specific-conductance record as an intermediary. Compensation for the effects of discharge prior to application of the Seasonal Kendall test for trends could not be done and identification of trends in water-quality constituents caused by some process (source) change was not possible. Some water-quality trends indicated by data from the Clinch and Tennessee Rivers might reflect the decreasing trend in discharge during the 1972-82 water years. Thus the stations below Watts Bar Dam and below Melton Hill Dam do not adequately meet the NASQAN objective to detect and assess long-term changes in stream quality.

Tennessee↗

USGS2025

Salinas Valley integrated hydrologic and reservoir operations models, Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties, California

The area surrounding the Salinas Valley groundwater basin in Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties of California is a highly productive agricultural area, contributes significantly to the local economy, and provides a substantial portion of vegetables and other agricultural commodities to the Nation. This region of California provides about half of the Nation’s lettuce, celery, broccoli, and spinach each year. Thus, this agricultural area provides significant volumes of agricultural products not just for California but the entire United States. Changes in population and increased agricultural development, which includes a shift toward more water-intensive crops, and climate variability, have put increasing demand on both surface water and groundwater resources in the valley. This has resulted in water management challenges in the Salinas Valley that are predominantly related to distribution of water supply throughout the basin. Where and when the water is present in the surface and subsurface does not coincide with where and when the water is needed. To deal with the distribution issue, historically water has been used conjunctively in the valley. Conjunctive use is a water management strategy that coordinates surface water and groundwater use to maximize water availability. Groundwater is used throughout the Salinas Valley to meet water demands when surface water supplies are insufficient. Availability of surface water is constrained by climate. Precipitation and streamflow vary seasonally and year to year. Although there are two reservoirs in the Salinas Valley to capture and store water during wet periods, the only conveyance of reservoir water to coastal agricultural areas is the Salinas River. Increasing demand on groundwater and surface water resources throughout the Salinas Valley has resulted in undesirable effects of unsustainable water use, such as surface water depletion, groundwater level declines, storage depletion in the principal aquifers, and seawater intrusion. To address these escalating issues, local communities, water management agencies, and groundwater sustainability agencies are evaluating how to sustainably manage both their surface water and groundwater resources. To meet water demands and reduce undesirable effects of unsustainable water use, continued conjunctive management of surface water and groundwater would ideally incorporate strategies to deal with increases in demand and a variable climate. To evaluate the challenging water management issues in the Salinas Valley, the U.S. Geological Survey, Monterey County Water Resource Agency, and the Salinas Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency developed a comprehensive suite of models that represent the Salinas Valley Hydrogeologic system called the Salinas Valley System Model. The Salinas Valley Geologic Framework was developed to characterize the subsurface using various topographic and geologic data sources, including information on hydrogeologic units, their surfaces and extents, geologic structures, lithology, and elevations from borehole data and cross sections, as well as details on faults and existing models. The Salinas Valley Watershed Model simulates the entire Salinas River watershed. Monthly surface water inflows into the integrated hydrologic model domain were simulated using the Salinas Valley Watershed Model. The historical model uses historical climate data, water and land use data, and reservoir releases to simulate agricultural operations, including landscape water demands, diversions, and reclaimed wastewater. The operational model adds an embedded reservoir operations framework to the simulation of the historical model that allows specified operational rules to simulate reservoir releases and changes in reservoir storage. The operational model assumes current reservoir operations and constant land use, which differs from historical conditions. Thus, the operational model is a hypothetical baseline model that can be used by local water managers to evaluate and quantify potential benefits of water supply projects. Together, the geologic framework, watershed, historical, and operational models form a tool that can be used to simulate irrigated agriculture and associated reservoir operations of the integrated hydrologic system of the Salinas Valley.

EarthArXiv↗

USGS2024

Geologic input databases for the 2025 Puerto Rico – U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model update: Crustal faults component

The last National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) was published in 2003. In advance of the 2025 PRVI NSHM update, we created three geologic input databases to summarize new onshore and offshore fault source information in the northern Caribbean region between 62°–70° W and 16°–21° N. These databases, of fault sections, fault‐zone polygons, and geologic estimates of fault activity (fault‐slip rate and earthquake recurrence intervals) at specific sites, document updates to fault parameters used in prior seismic hazard models in PRVI. Fault sources were reviewed from published studies since 2003, which document substantial changes to the understanding of fault location, geometry, or activity. New fault section sources were added for features that meet the criteria of (1) length ≥7 km, (2) unequivocal evidence of recurrent tectonic Quaternary activity, and (3) documentation that is publicly available in a peer‐reviewed source. In addition, we revised several broad areal sources, such as the Mona and Anegada extensional zones. The 2003 model included three fault sections and two fault‐zone polygons (areal sources). These databases include 35 fault sections, 6 fault‐zone polygons, and 51 earthquake geology sites. To characterize fault activity rates, slip‐rate bins were assigned based on landscape expression and paleoseismic trench observations for faults without published slip‐rate sites. Additional fault sources were evaluated but not included in these databases due to a lack of published information about fault location, geometry, or recurrent Quaternary activity. The PRVI NSHM 2025 geologic input databases describe crustal faulting; the geometries and coupling of Puerto Rico subduction zone and Muertos Trough models are considered in a separate database. Updates to the fault sections, fault‐zone polygons, and earthquake geology databases can help inform the location and recurrence rate of damaging earthquakes in the PRVI NSHM implementation.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗

USGS2025

A joint Gaussian process model of geochemistry, geophysics, and temperature for groundwater TDS in the San Ardo Oil Field, California, USA

Decline in availability of fresh groundwater has expanded interest in brackish groundwater resources; however, the distribution of brackish groundwater is poorly understood. Water resources in sedimentary basins across the United States often overlie oil and gas development. Mapping of groundwater total dissolved solids (TDS) using data from oil well geophysical logs has become an important technique for identifying fresh and brackish groundwater. Existing geophysical log analysis methods use porosity and temperature to relate formation resistivity to TDS. Typically, natural geothermal gradients are used to estimate temperature at the location of collected resistivity. However, in thermally enhanced oil fields, steam is injected into the subsurface to mobilize high viscosity oil, creating variable temperature distributions. Furthermore, TDS derived from resistivity also depends on the fractions of dominant ions. Typically, chloride and bicarbonate fractions must be determined. It is also necessary to model TDS across many geologic units with heterogenous porosity distributions. Collectively, each quantity used to estimate TDS (resistivity, porosity, temperature, bicarbonate fraction) varies in space and time, and available data points are rarely collocated. Here, we present a new method of mapping groundwater TDS that continuously models each quantity together with a joint Gaussian process. This method enables mapping fresh and brackish water with practically available data. We apply this method to the San Ardo Oil Field in Monterey County, California, where steam injection occurs. In some areas of the aquifer system overlying the oil zone, the temperature is ∼75 °C, roughly twice the natural background value. Groundwater TDS is typically <1,500 mg/L in the aquifer and increases with depth to ∼9,000 mg/L in the oil-producing zone. A low-permeability clay layer delineates the fresh and brackish water, likely by inhibiting surface recharge from penetrating the deeper zones, allowing higher-TDS connate water to remain in place. Weaker lateral TDS trends may be controlled by recharge patterns associated with the Salinas River. Our model reveals with high certainty that groundwater has freshened in one localized part of the oil-producing zone and suggests with less certainty that more widespread freshening has also occurred. The lowering of TDS was possibly from decades of low-TDS steam injection and the associated fluid production and disposal operations.

California↗

USGS2026

Evaluation of stream capture related to groundwater pumping, middle Humboldt River Basin, Nevada

Historical, future, and potential stream capture from groundwater pumping in the middle Humboldt River Basin (MHRB), Nevada, is estimated using a calibrated numerical groundwater flow model. The model was developed to estimate (1) stream capture, which is the change in flux between the groundwater system and the Humboldt River and tributaries, and (2) change in streamflow, which is the change in streamflow estimated for the Imlay gage on the Humboldt River (U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 10333000). Historical stream capture for water years (WYs) 1961–2015 is estimated using recorded and estimated groundwater pumping during that period. Future (predictive) stream capture was based on historical stresses (WYs 1961–2015) using a scenario that simulated non-mine pumping from WY 2015 at a uniform rate for 100 years into the future. Potential stream capture throughout the middle Humboldt River Basin from groundwater pumping during varying durations of time are presented in a series of capture maps. Maps also are presented that show the potential to capture from groundwater evapotranspiration, as well as the storage changes for pumping duration of 100 years. Estimates of historical stream capture from the mainstem Humboldt River during the early 1960s are less than 400 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) when groundwater withdrawals and pumping rates were relatively small compared to more recent times. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, groundwater withdrawals increased and estimated historical stream capture also increased from about 4,000 acre-ft/yr in the late 1980s and early 1990s to as much as 18,800 acre-feet (acre-ft) in WY 1998. In WY 2015, estimated historical stream capture declined to about 13,000 acre-ft because of decreasing groundwater withdrawals and lower streamflow during the drought of WYs 2012–15, resulting in less stream water available for capture. Stream capture was estimated for 100 years into the future based on WY 2015 non-mine pumping rates and mine-dewatering activity through WY 2015. Stream capture is forecast to increase to about 23,000 acre-ft/yr, and streamflow in the Humboldt River could decrease by as much as 19,000 acre-ft/yr. Pumping for mine-dewatering and the associated discharge of that water affects streamflow in the Humboldt River at Imlay, Nevada (U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 10333000). Historically, from WYs 1991 to 2015, streamflow was greater at Imlay gage during active mine-dewatering from mine-water discharge operations and increased by as much as 105,000 acre-ft in WY 1998. The increase was attributed mostly to the discharge of groundwater from mine-related dewatering operations directly into the mainstem Humboldt River or its tributaries, with some of this increase associated with return flows from discharge to rapid infiltration basins. Results indicate that streamflow at Imlay gage is expected to decrease by as much as 1,600 acre-ft/yr 30 years after mine-related pumping and discharge are discontinued. The streamflow reductions at the Imlay gage are expected to then decrease to around 500 acre-ft/yr, 100 years after mine-related pumping and discharge are discontinued. Potential capture maps were produced for pumping durations of 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Capture map results indicate that areas of greater potential stream capture occur adjacent to the Humboldt River and for upstream tributaries areas north of the Humboldt River.

Nevada↗

USGS2024

Three-dimensional temperature maps of the Williston Basin, USA: Implications for deep hot sedimentary and enhanced geothermal resources

As part of U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) efforts to identify and assess geothermal energy resources of the US, a three-dimensional (3D) geologic and thermal model has been constructed for the Williston Basin, USA. The geologic model consists of all sedimentary units above the Proterozoic and Archean crystalline rock (called basement herein), with a total sedimentary thickness of up to 5 km near the basin center. Twenty-nine geologic units were mapped from interpreted formation tops from 16,465 wells. A 3D temperature model was constructed to a depth of 7 km by constructing a 3D heat flow model for the sedimentary units, followed by estimating underlying temperature using a one-dimensional (1D) analytic solution for heat flow within the underlying crystalline basement. Using the sedimentary basin model, heat flow was simulated in 3D and was calibrated using three temperature datasets: 1) 24 high-confidence static temperature logs (equilibrium thermal profiles), 2) more than15,000 drill stem test (DST) measurements from >7,000 wells, and 3) more than 45,000 bottomhole temperature (BHT) measurements from >14,000 wells. The DST and BHT datasets provide broad spatial coverage, but are lower confidence, primarily because measurements were made prior to attaining thermal equilibrium. DST and BHT measurements were binned regionally to develop representative thermal profiles that generally agree with these lower quality data (hereafter called pseudowell temperature profiles). Layer properties (primarily thermal conductivity and compaction curves) were set to best estimate values, then the heat flow model was calibrated to fit pseudowell and static temperature logs primarily by adjusting basal heat flow to approximate the overall temperature profile. Minor adjustments to thermal conductivity allowed adjusting changes in slope at lithologic contacts. Resulting maps include 3D temperature and basal (bottom of sedimentary units) heat flow estimates, which are used as input for the temperature model of the basement. The crystalline basement temperature model uses an analytic 1D solution to the heat flow equation that requires estimates of heat flow and temperature at the upper boundary (i.e., the sediment/basement contact), radiogenic heat production within the crystalline basement, and reference thermal conductivity (i.e., uncorrected for temperature). Two regions of high heat flow are identified: 1) in western North Dakota along the North American Central Plains Conductivity Anomaly and 2) in eastern Montana near the Poplar dome. Within the sedimentary column in the center of the basin of the basin, an area of approximately 100,000 km2 is predicted to have moderate- to high-temperature geothermal resources (>90 °C) under the thickest sequences of sediments. Where thick insulation and high heat flow coincide, electric-grade resources can be less than 4 km deep. Assuming a maximum feasible drilling depth of 7 km, temperatures are predicted to be as high as 175 °C. The geologic model may be used to identify strata at sufficient temperatures that may have natural permeability or that may have conditions that favor development of enhanced/engineered geothermal systems resources.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2025

Protected from Pterygoplichthys? Predicting thermal habitat suitability for nonnative armored catfish in the Suwannee River

Objective Nonnative fishes can modify ecosystems and harm economies when they are introduced to new environments. Climate change is likely to assist the spread and establishment of some nonnative fishes (e.g., warmwater species), but spatiotemporal gaps in water temperature monitoring and modeling may prevent ecologists and managers from forecasting thermal habitat suitability for these taxa. The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive model of winter water temperatures and thermal habitat suitability for two priority nonnative armored catfish, Vermiculated Sailfin Catfish Pterygoplichthys disjunctivus and Orinoco Sailfin Catfish P. multiradiatus , in the Suwannee River, Florida and Georgia. Methods Precipitation- and groundwater-corrected air–water temperature models were developed and evaluated using a model selection procedure to predict water temperatures at four sites in the Suwannee River. These models were chosen because they blend the simplicity of air–water temperature models with the accuracy of hydrometeorological models to create an efficient, economical, management-relevant approach for analyzing and forecasting water temperature. Results Most of the top-performing water temperature models (92%) had precipitation or groundwater corrections to air–water temperature formulations. Projected mean and maximum water temperatures increased as simulated climate change intensified. All four Suwannee River sites studied were projected to be thermally hospitable to the survival of Vermiculated Sailfin Catfish. Lower river sites, noticeably warmer than upper river sites, were conducive to the survival of Orinoco Sailfin Catfish throughout the winter months. The upper river sites were too cold for Orinoco Sailfin Catfish survival in some climate-change scenarios, but the Suwannee River has an abundance of constant-temperature springs that are likely hospitable to Vermiculated Sailfin Catfish and Orinoco Sailfin Catfish throughout the year. Conclusions The findings suggest that winter water temperatures will likely not be a barrier to the survival of Pterygoplichthys catfish in the Suwannee River, amplifying the importance of conservation and management approaches to inhibit their spread and establishment. If the Pterygoplichthys population remains small and isolated and decision makers are able to devote required staff time and resources to managing these species, removal and eradication at local if not broader scales may be reasonable goals. This study provides a water temperature modeling approach that can aid ecologists and managers in prioritizing sites to prevent the introduction, slow the dispersal, eradicate, and control Pterygoplichthys catfish and other nonnative fishes in the Suwannee River and beyond.

Florida, Georgia↗

USGS2024

Aboveground carbon stocks across a hydrological gradient: Ghost forests to non-tidal freshwater forested wetlands

Upper estuarine forested wetlands (UEFWs) play an important role in the sequestration of atmospheric carbon (C), which is facilitated by their position at the boundary of terrestrial and maritime environments but threatened by sea level rise. This study assessed the change in aboveground C stocks along the estuarine–riverine hydrogeomorphic gradient spanning salt-impacted freshwater tidal forested wetlands to freshwater forested wetlands in seasonally tidal and nontidal landscape positions. Standing stocks of C in forested wetlands were measured along two major coastal river systems, the Winyah Bay in South Carolina and the Savannah River in Georgia (USA), replicating and expanding a previous study to allow the assessment of change over time. Aboveground C stocks on these systems averaged 172.9 Mg C ha −1 , comparable to those found in UEFWs across the globe and distinct from the terrestrial forested ecosystems they are often considered to be a part of during large-scale C inventory efforts. Groundwater salinity conditions as low as 1.3 ppt were observed in conjunction with losses of aboveground C. When viewed in context alongside expected sea level rise and corresponding saltwater intrusion estimates, these data suggest a marked decrease in aboveground C stocks in forested wetlands situated in and around tidal estuaries.

Georgia, South Carolina↗

USGS2024

Streams, springs, and volcanic lakes for volcano monitoring

Introduction Volcanic unrest can trigger appreciable change to surface waters such as streams, springs, and volcanic lakes. Magma degassing produces gases and soluble salts that are absorbed into groundwater that feeds streams and lakes. As magma ascends, the amount of heat and degassing will increase, and so will any related geochemical and thermal signal. Subsurface magma movement can cause pressurization that alters hydrostatic head and may induce groundwater discharge. Fluid-pressure changes have been linked to distal volcano-tectonic earthquakes (White and McCausland, 2016; Coulon and others, 2017) and phreatic eruptions (for example, Yamaoka and others, 2016). Clearly, changes in groundwater and surface waters are both indicators of unrest and clues to how and where magma is rising toward the surface. Where possible, it is prudent to incorporate real-time hydrologic data into multiparameter monitoring of restless volcanoes. Hydrologic dynamics can also be tracked by changes in groundwater levels that are commonly measured in shallow boreholes (see of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–K, 5 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062k. ">chapter K , this volume, on boreholes; Hurwitz and Lowenstern, 2024). Although inferred to be common, relatively few volcano-hydrology anomalies are well documented, and many are essentially anecdotal (Newhall and others, 2001), reflecting the fact that high-resolution time series remain rare. Extreme examples include the 2008 eruption of Nevado del Huila, Colombia, where relatively minor phreatomagmatic eruptions were accompanied by expulsion of as much as 300 million cubic meters of groundwater from fissures high on the volcano (Worni and others, 2011), generating large lahars. Substantial decreases in flow rate from springs about 8 kilometers from the summit of Mayon Volcano, Philippines, have been noted before most eruptions in the 20th century (Newhall and others, 2001). Stream monitoring at Redoubt Volcano in 2009 allowed Werner and others (2012) to recognize that groundwater was unable to absorb (or scrub) the high flux of volcanic gas and that a high CO 2 /SO 2 precursor signal had been evident for 5 months prior to the eruption. A key to better interpreting hydrologic anomalies—or even identifying them—is therefore obtaining adequate baseline data. Most hydrologic monitoring at U.S. volcanoes has been accomplished by intermittent sampling surveys with annual or less frequent sampling (for example, https://hotspringchem.wr.usgs.gov/index.php ). More frequent sampling, however, generally is needed to establish reliable baselines. A recent hydrologic and hydrothermal monitoring experiment at 25 sites and 10 of the 12 level 4 (very high threat) volcanoes in the U.S. portion of the Cascade Range demonstrated that there is sufficient temporal variability in hydrothermal fluxes, even during quiescent periods, that one-time measurements will commonly have limited interpretive value (Crankshaw and others, 2018). Thus, surveys are best augmented with data from streamgages (for example, Evans and others, 2004; Bergfeld and others, 2008). Streamflow (water discharge) data allow measured temperature and specific conductance to be converted to heat and solute mass fluxes, which could be insightful parameters for detecting anomalous activity (McCleskey and others, 2012). At the Yellowstone Caldera, long-term monitoring of river solutes has allowed calculation of the chloride flux, a proxy for heat discharge (Hurwitz and others, 2007; McCleskey and others, 2016) from the subsurface magma. This is readily accomplished because data from streamgages are continuously recorded and archived by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) (USGS, 2024). Similar studies on stratovolcanoes or shield volcanoes would be scientifically useful, and yet are logistically challenging, requiring streamgages on numerous radial drainages complemented by either frequent manual sampling or numerous deployments of equipment to measure water temperature and specific conductance as a proxy for water chemistry. Another challenge is that some volcanic areas, especially shield volcanoes, are characterized by near-surface porous rocks and soils, such that surface streams are rare and replaced by distant, dilute large-volume springs with only a trace of any original volcanically sourced water (Manga, 2001; Hurwitz and others, 2021). Volcanic lakes are worthy of special attention for monitoring efforts, as their temperature and composition can provide evidence of increased flux of volatile-rich fluids from below. Quantifying changes in volatile and heat release from magma can be simpler in lakes than for volcanoes with radial drainages and no major lakes. Moreover, volcanic lakes pose a range of hazards themselves, including phreatomagmatic eruptions, debris flows, flank collapse, tsunamis, and toxic gas release (Mastin and Witter, 2000; Delmelle and others, 2015; Manville, 2015; Rouwet and others, 2015)—hazards that have historically been responsible for substantial loss of life at many volcanoes worldwide (Manville, 2015). Catastrophic CO 2 release at Lake Nyos, Cameroon, in 1986 suffocated about 1,750 people and about 3,500 livestock and was probably triggered by a large landslide into the gas-saturated lake (Kling and others, 1987; Evans and others, 1993). Gas-charged springs in Soda Bay within Clear Lake (California) have caused almost a dozen deaths to bathers in the past hundred years (ABC News, 2000). A 2005 example of lake overturn and abundant gas release was documented at Mount Chiginagak in Alaska (Schaefer and others, 2008) but did not result in any human casualties. Although thermally stratified lakes, which promote trapping of exsolved magmatic gas, tend to develop in tropical regions, the phenomenon can also arise where salinity creates meromixis (a condition in which a lake does not mix completely), as occurs in Mono Lake, California (Jellison and Melack, 1993; Jellison and others, 1998). If magma erupts or flows into a lake, the interaction between hot magma and cold water can be explosive (Mastin and others, 2004; Zimanowski and others, 2015) and substantially expand the area affected by the eruption. Another hazard is the breaching of crater rims by landslides triggered by volcanic and (or) seismic activity. Under some circumstances, substantial volumes of water can be displaced, leading to large floods and lahars. Late Holocene lake flooding from Aniakchak Crater in the Alaska Peninsula (Waythomas, 2022) and from Paulina Lake in Newberry Crater, Oregon (Chitwood and Jensen, 2000), caused by the failure of outlet sills, testify to the substantial hazards at lake-filled calderas. Several volcanic systems in the United States host lakes known to receive heat and gas from underlying magma. These lakes vary widely in area, depth, and chemical composition. Lakes are present at level 4 volcanoes, including Crater Lake and Newberry Volcano in Oregon; Yellowstone Caldera in Wyoming; Long Valley Caldera, Clear Lake volcanic field, Medicine Lake, and Salton Buttes in California; and Aniakchak Crater, Mount Katmai, Fisher Caldera, Mount Okmok, and Kaguyak Crater, among others, in Alaska. A water lake was present in Halemaʻumaʻu, the crater of Kīlauea, Hawai‘i (fig. F1), from October 2019 to December 2020. Level 3 volcanoes with lakes include Mono Lake volcanic field (Calif.), Mount Bachelor (Ore.), Ukinrek Maars and Mount Chiginagak (Alaska), and Soda Lake (Nevada). In addition, there are lakes at many levels 1 and 2 volcanoes. In the United States, there are no strongly acidic lakes that receive abundant input of magmatic gas, such as those found at Mount Ruapehu (New Zealand), Ijen and Kelud (Indonesia), and Poás (Costa Rica). Nevertheless, many contain fluids that provide clues to magmatic processes below. Since publication of a previous report on recommended instrumentation for volcano monitoring (Moran and others, 2008), continuous hydrologic monitoring has become increasingly feasible. However, changes in water pressure, temperature, and chemistry remain, in general, poorly studied phenomena at volcanoes (Sparks, 2003; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2017). Recent efforts by the USGS have included the temporary study of Cascade Range volcanoes, which included frequent (15 minute to hourly) temporal sampling of temperature, depth, and conductivity (Crankshaw and others, 2018; Ingebritsen and Evans, 2019). At Yellowstone Caldera, many streamgages have now added thermistors and specific conductance sensors, allowing estimation of time-dependent chloride flux as a proxy for variations in subsurface heat flux (McCleskey and others, 2012, 2016). Efforts to better understand lakes have also accelerated, with bathymetric mapping and sampling carried out at several locations in the United States. Especially thorough work was done at Yellowstone Lake thanks to the Hydrothermal Dynamics of Yellowstone Lake (HD-YLAKE, https://hdylake.org ) project, funded primarily by the National Science Foundation. In addition to geophysical surveys and recovery of cores and other samples, HD-YLAKE investigations included remotely operated vehicle (ROV) investigations of hydrothermal vents on the lake floor (fig. F2). Data collected by the ROV provided a better understanding of the thermal and chemical influx from lake-bottom hydrothermal systems (Sohn and others, 2017). In this chapter, we focus on detecting changes in the chemistry, temperature, discharge, or water levels of streams, springs, and lakes that can be caused by seismicity, volumetric strains, or increases in gas flux associated with ascending magma. There is unavoidable overlap with other chapters of this report. Samples of water and gas can also be obtained in boreholes ( of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–K, 5 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062k. ">chapter K , this volume; Hurwitz and Lowenstern, 2024), both shallow and deep. Gas monitoring ( of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–E, 11 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062e.">chapter E , this volume; Lewicki and others, 2024) relies in part on samples from springs and wells, particularly where measurable gas plumes are absent. Water acts as a trigger and lubricant for landslides and sediment-rich floods, and so hydrology has obvious relevance for lahar monitoring, as discussed in of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–H, 6 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062h. ">chapter H (this volume; Thelen and others, 2024). Shared situational awareness among scientists engaged in geophysical, gas, and hydrologic monitoring will improve overall understanding of the volcanic hazard.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2000

Storm impact scale for barrier islands

A new scale is proposed that categorizes impacts to natural barrier islands resulting from tropical and extra-tropical storms. The proposed scale is fundamentally different than existing storm-related scales in that the coupling between forcing processes and the geometry of the coast is explicitly included. Four regimes, representing different levels of impact, are defined. Within each regime, patterns and relative magnitudes of net erosion and accretion are argued to be unique. The borders between regimes represent thresholds defining where processes and magnitudes of impacts change dramatically. Impact level 1 is the 'swash' regime describing a storm where runup is confined to the foreshore. The foreshore typically erodes during the storm and recovers following the storm; hence, there is no net change. Impact level 2 is the 'collision' regime describing a storm where the wave runup exceeds the threshold of the base of the foredune ridge. Swash impacts the dune forcing net erosion. Impact level 3 is the 'overwash' regime describing a storm where wave runup overtops the berm or, if present, the foredune ridge. The associated net landward sand transport contributes to net migration of the barrier landward. Impact level 4 is the 'inundation' regime describing a storm where the storm surge is sufficient to completely and continuously submerge the barrier island. Sand undergoes net landward transport over the barrier island; limited evidence suggests the quantities and distance of transport are much greater than what occurs during the 'overwash' regime.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS2026

Long-term monotonic trends in water budget components in the contiguous United States: Insights from two hydrologic models

Characterizing changes to water availability for domestic, industrial, agricultural, and other uses is essential to support water management. To better quantify these changes, the U.S. Geological Survey and National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research produced two hydrologic models simulating water budget components from 1980 to 2021 over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Both hydrologic models were driven by a common atmospheric forcing dataset and aggregated to common spatial and temporal scales, which enables a novel evaluation of congruency between the models. We present annual and seasonal trends in six water budget components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, groundwater recharge, soil saturation, and snow water equivalent) based on the Mann–Kendall test for monotonic trend and Theil-Sen slope estimate for the water year 1983–2021 period for ~86,000 catchments in CONUS. Additional components and metrics from our analysis pipeline are available in an associated published dataset, which contains more than 46 million trend results. The water budget trends showed broad agreement with prior observational and modeling studies that indicate increasing trends in the northeast and decreasing trends in southwestern CONUS. We found the seasonal variability in water budget trends was greatest in the southern, central, and northwest CONUS. These findings support integrated trend assessments when coupled with trends in water quality and use.

Contiguous United States↗

USGS2025

The effects of line simplification on planform geometry

Data on maps should retain accuracy regardless of scale. Yet, as cartographic lines are generalized, there can be impacts on properties such as topology, density, and planform geometry. Here, we investigate the use of the Scale Specific Sinuosity (S3) metric (Stanislawski et al., 2023) to evaluate the effects of line simplification on planform geometry, which is the bends of streams in map view. We employ an open-source Python S3 workflow to characterize the geometry of five diverse stream channels in the United States. The original data are extracted from the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrography Dataset 1:24,000-scale vector data (U.S. Geological Survey, 2000) (Table 1), and the simplification is done using the Visvalingam and Whyatt method (2017) with a simplification tolerance of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, and 2.0 km. The S3 analysis is calculated at each level of simplification and S3 derivatives are generated. Derivatives include measures of sinuosity, fractal dimension, and the dominant bend wavelength. The findings show that the change in planform geometry is scale-dependent, though simplification will have little effect on straighter lines. The change becomes more apparent in complex lines as the degree of simplification aligns with the scale of the dominant bend geometries. These logical conclusions are evidence that the S3 is a useful metric for automated characterization of bend geometry regardless of line complexity.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2026

Mountain goat declines in a protected, interior, native population

A shifting climate poses threats to alpine-adapted species including mountain goats. We used long-term (12 years) citizen science monitoring data and Bayesian N-mixture modeling to estimate population trends and drivers of population metrics among mountain goats in Glacier National Park (GNP). Median goats per site ( n = 37 sites) declined by 45% (95% credible interval [CRI] = 32%, 57%) from 77.8 (95% CRI = 64.4, 95.1) in 2008 to 42.3 (95% CRI = 34.3, 52.2) in 2019, with consistent declines from 2008 until 2015, when the number of estimated goats stabilized. The decline exceeds IUCN criteria for classifying a population as vulnerable, >30% declines over only two generations. Across years, relatively few goats occupied northwestern GNP. Goat numbers declined the most at northeastern sites, trended toward decline in most southern sites, and increased at only two west-central sites. The proportion of permanent snow and glaciers, the presence of natural mineral licks, and habituation strongly increased the initial abundance of goats in the area. Weather variables had the greatest influence on population growth rates, particularly precipitation between May 15 and June 15 of the previous summer, the neonatal period. Lower growth occurred with less snow water equivalent and lower mean winter temperature, early summer temperature, and early summer precipitation. Projected reductions of permanent snow, increasing spring and summer temperatures, and insufficient and variable spring precipitation raise concerns for the future of native goats in this region. Our analyses reveal ways to improve detection rates of goats during surveys, which is important for optimizing the precision of estimates and the power to detect future trends. Detection increased with goat habituation, retention of observers with experience, use of binoculars, and conducting surveys at lower temperatures and earlier dates. Improving detection will be particularly important given the lower number of goats currently observed in the park. Research to estimate park-wide population size, evaluate genetic structure and diversity, assess changing habitat, human recreation levels and forage, and forward-project climate effects on persistence will be crucial to understanding the context of these results and conserving this iconic, metapopulation at the southern edge of the distribution of native mountain goats.

Montana↗

USGS2025

Widespread occurrence of former anhydrite phenocrysts in Laramide-age magmas related to porphyry-skarn Cu mineralization at Santa Rita and Hanover-Fierro, New Mexico, USA

Reports of magmatic anhydrite are relatively rare, with only ~30 occurrences documented worldwide so far. However, magmatic anhydrite saturation is difficult to recognize because anhydrite decomposes rapidly in near-surface environments. In most cases, only anhydrite inclusions shielded within other phenocryst phases were able to survive. Alternatively, since anhydrite phenocrysts preserved in fresh volcanic rocks are characteristically intergrown with apatite phenocrysts, the former presence of anhydrite phenocrysts can be recognized based on the occurrence of lath-shaped cavities that show a strong spatial association with apatite phenocrysts. These cavities can be either empty or filled with low-temperature, secondary minerals such as zeolites, carbonates, or microcrystalline silica. A systematic search for the occurrence of such cavities, combined with optical and Raman-spectroscopic identification of anhydrite inclusions preserved within apatite, hornblende and quartz phenocrysts, demonstrates that most of the Laramide-age magmas associated with the Santa Rita and Hanover-Fierro porphyry-skarn Cu (Zn, Mo, Au, Pb) deposits were saturated in magmatic anhydrite. The anhydrite typically coexisted with monosulfide solid solution (MSS), suggesting oxygen fugacities of ~2.0±0.5 log units above the fayalite-magnetite-quartz buffer. The magmas range from andesitic to rhyodacitic in composition, and from shortly pre-mineralization (~61 Ma) to shortly post-mineralization (~57 Ma) in age. In three samples with particularly well-recognizable former anhydrite phenocrysts, their modal abundance could be quantified based on high-resolution scans of polished hand specimens. The observed modal anhydrite abundances of 0.63–1.8 vol% translate into minimum magma sulfur contents of 0.20–0.56 wt% S. The highest sulfur content of 0.56 wt% S is difficult to reconcile with available anhydrite solubility models, but it could be reproduced in an anhydrite solubility experiment performed at 950 °C and 1.15 GPa on a natural latite containing 13.1 wt% dissolved H2O. The sample with the second-highest sulfur content of 0.26 wt% S requires ~10 wt% H2O in the silicate melt, and, consequently, a minimum pressure of ~0.5 GPa. Taken together, the results suggest that the magmas of the Central Mining District were extremely hydrous and thus originated from great depth. Indeed, their major element compositions and reconstructed H2O and S contents agree well with experimentally observed and numerically predicted compositions of residual silicate melts after 50–70 wt% crystallization of ordinary arc basalts at high pressure and high oxygen fugacities.

New Mexico↗

USGS2000

Water quality of selected springs and public-supply wells, Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, South Dakota, 1992-97

This report presents results of a water-quality study for the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, South Dakota. The study was a cooperative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Water Resources Department of the Oglala Sioux Tribe. Discharge and water-quality data were collected during 1992-97 for 14 contact springs located in the northwestern part of the Reservation. Data were collected to evaluate potential alternative sources of water supply for the village of Red Shirt, which currently obtains water of marginal quality from a well completed in the Inyan Kara aquifer. During 1995-97, water-quality data also were collected for 44 public-supply wells that serve about one-half of the Reservation's population. Quality-assurance sampling was used to evaluate the precision and accuracy of environmental samples. Ten of the springs sampled contact the White River Group, and four contact the Pierre Shale. Springs contacting the White River Group range from calcium bicarbonate to sodium bicarbonate water types. Two springs contacting the Pierre Shale have water types similar to this; however, sulfate is the dominant anion for the other two springs. In general, springs contacting the White River Group are shown to have better potential as alternative sources of water supply for the village of Red Shirt than springs contacting the Pierre Shale. Nine of the springs with better water quality were sampled repeatedly; however, only minor variability in water quality was identified. Six of these nine springs, of which five contact the White River Group, probably have the best potential for use as water supplies. Discharge from any of these six springs probably would provide adequate water supply for Red Shirt during most periods, based on a limited number of discharge measurements collected. Concentrations of lead exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) action level of 15 µg/L for three of these six springs. Five of these six springs also had arsenic concentrations that exceeded 10 µg/L, which could be problematic if the current maximum contaminant level (MCL) is lowered. Blending of water from one or more springs with water from the existing Inyan Kara well may be an option to address concerns regarding both quantity and quality of existing and potential sources. All nine springs that were sampled for indicator bacteria had positive detections on one or more occasions during presumptive tests. Although USEPA standards for bacteria apply only to public-water supplies, local residents using spring water for domestic purposes need to be aware of the potential health risks associated with consuming untreated water. One spring contacting the White River Group and two springs contacting the Pierre Shale exceeded 15 pCi/L for gross alpha; these values do not necessarily constitute exceedances of the MCL, which excludes radioactivity contributed by uranium and radon. Additional sampling using different analysis techniques would be needed to conclusively determine if any samples exceeded this MCL. Nine springs were sampled for selected pesticides and tritium. The pesticides atrazine, carbaryl, and 2,4-D were not detected in any of the samples. The nine springs were analyzed for tritium in order to generally assess the age of the water and to determine if concentrations exceeded the MCL established for gross beta-particle activity. Tritium results indicated two springs are composed primarily of water recharged prior to atmospheric testing of nuclear bombs and two other springs have a relatively large percentage of test-era water. The remaining five springs had tritium values that indicated some percentage of test-era water; however, additional sampling would be needed to determine whether water is predominantly pre- or post-bomb age. Of the 44 public-supply wells sampled, 42 are completed in the Arikaree aquifer, one is completed in an alluvial aquifer, and one is completed in the Inyan Kara aquifer. Water from the alluvial well is a sodium bicarbonate water type, water from Arikaree aquifer ranges from calcium bicarbonate to sodium bicarbonate types, and water from the Inyan Kara well is a calcium sulfate bicarbonate type. Of the 44 wells sampled, 28 (64 percent) tested positive for indicator bacteria in presumptive tests. Because these were single samples that generally were collected upstream from chemical treatment feeders, positive detections do not necessarily constitute exceedances of drinking-water standards. A single sample from an Arikaree well exceeded the MCL for arsenic of 50 µg/L. Arsenic exceeded 10 µg/L for six additional Arikaree wells and for the alluvial well and the Inyan Kara well, which could be problematic if the current MCL is lowered. The alluvial well also exceeded the secondary maximum contaminant level (SMCL) for dissolved solids, which is non-enforceable, and the action level for lead. The Inyan Kara well exceeded the SMCL's for iron and for manganese and the MCL of 5 pCi/L for radium-226 and 228 combined. Several Arikaree wells exceeded SMCL's for either pH, sulfate, dissolved solids, iron, or manganese. One Arikaree well exceeded the MCL of 4.0 mg/L for fluoride and another exceeded the MCL of 10 mg/L for nitrite plus nitrate. Ten Arikaree wells equalled or exceeded 15 pCi/L for gross alpha; however, these values do not necessarily constitute exceedances of the MCL, which excludes radioactivity contributed by uranium and radon. Additional sampling using different analysis techniques would be needed to conclusively determine if any samples exceeded this MCL. Eight wells, all from the Arikaree aquifer, equalled or exceeded the proposed MCL of 20 µg/L for uranium and 33 wells (75 percent) equalled or exceeded one-half of the proposed MCL. Although this standard has only been proposed, additional information regarding the extent of elevated uranium concentrations in the Arikaree aquifer, and the geochemical processes involved, may be beneficial. It was determined from analyses of uranium isotope data for five wells that the source of elevated uranium concentrations is naturally occurring, rather than anthropogenic.

South Dakota↗

USGS2025

Linking permafrost to the abundance, biomass, and energy density of fish in Arctic headwater streams

Permafrost thaw alters groundwater flow, river hydrology, stream-catchment interactions, and the availability of carbon and nutrients in headwater streams. The impact of permafrost on watershed hydrology and biogeochemistry of headwater streams has been demonstrated, but there is little understanding of how permafrost influences fish in these ecosystems. We examined relations among permafrost characteristics, the resulting changes in water temperature, stream hydrology (e.g., discharge flashiness), and macroinvertebrates, with the abundance, biomass, and energy density of juvenile Dolly Varden ( Salvelinus malma ) and Arctic Grayling ( Thymallus arcticus ) across 10 headwater streams in northwestern Alaska. Macroinvertebrate density was driven by concentrations of dissolved carbon and nutrients supporting stream food webs. Dolly Varden abundance was primarily related to water temperature with fewer fish in warmer streams, whereas Dolly Varden energy density decreased with the flashiness of the headwater streams. Dolly Varden biomass was related to both temperature and bottom-up food web effects. The energy density of Arctic Grayling decreased with warmer temperatures and discharge flashiness. These relations demonstrate the importance of terrestrial–aquatic connections in permafrost landscapes and indicate the complexity of landscape effects on fish. Because permafrost thaw is one of the most impactful changes occurring as the Arctic warms, an improved understanding of how stream temperature, hydrology, and bottom-up food web processes influence fish populations can aid forecasting of future conditions across the Arctic.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Geophysical constraints on continental rejuvenation in central China: Implications for outward growth of the Tibetan Plateau

Continental rejuvenation results from the tectonic reactivation of crustal structures and lithospheric reworking by mantle flow. Geochemical observations and field mapping have traditionally provided the primary evidence for the secular evolution of crustal composition and tectonic processes during continental rejuvenation. Nonetheless, the impact of continental rejuvenation on the observed present-day strain rate and orogenic-scale lithospheric structure has not been well constrained. The pre-existing E-W–trending Central China Orogenic Belt has been overprinted by the N-S–trending Central Longitudinal Seismic Belt and constitutes the intracontinental West Qinling Syntaxis in central China, where the tectonic setting changes eastward from contraction to extension. Combining updated global positioning system data and high-resolution crustal seismic tomography, we reveal a modern continental rejuvenation process within the West Qinling Syntaxis in central China. The northward extrusion of the Tibetan Plateau's weak lithospheric layer (middle-lower crust and lithospheric mantle) of southwestern China relative to the rigid Sichuan Basin/Ordos Block of the eastern West Qinling Syntaxis results in regional dextral shearing that shapes the Central Longitudinal Seismic Belt and defines the eastern Tibetan Plateau margin. The pre-existing E-W–trending Central China Orogenic Belt has been preserved above the brittle-ductile transition zone, and the northward movement of the deep lithospheric layer drives the deformation of the upper crust in the West Qinling Syntaxis. Our results, along with previous studies, suggest the presence of an intracontinental lithospheric interchange structure in central China. The continental rejuvenation of the West Qinling Syntaxis results from a combination of fault reactivation in the upper crust (Stage I, Eocene–Oligocene) and reworking of the deep lithosphere (Stage II, middle–late Miocene) related to the plateau-wide shift in stress accommodation ultimately driven by the redistribution of mass outward from the central Tibetan Plateau. At present, the transition zone between the high- and low-velocity anomalies along the Central Longitudinal Seismic Belt not only shapes the landscape boundary but controls the size and recurrence interval of earthquakes within the West Qinling Syntaxis in central China.

GSA Bulletin↗