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At least 397 records · Page 22Linked to original sources

Limited directional change in mountaintop plant communities over 19 years in western North America

Plant communities on mountain summits are commonly long-lived, cold-adapted perennials with low dispersal ability. These characteristics in tandem with limited area to track suitable conditions make these mountain communities potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, and indicators of climate change impacts. We investigated temporal changes in plant communities on 29 arid mountain summits across eight study regions in California and Nevada, USA, over 19 years. We analyzed community dynamics in terms of species richness, turnover, gain and loss of functional groups, and relative abundance of functional groups. First, across all summits and regions, we found no change in species richness over time. Second, there was relatively high species turnover (21.7%) between the five-year survey intervals, but turnover was not significantly different from random expectation. Within functional groups, forbs had the greatest proportion of gains and cushions had the greatest proportion of losses. Third, qualitative abundance categories presented a small but consistent signal of decrease in the relative abundance of cushions, graminoids, and shrubs/trees over the study period. Across a broad geographic scale and nearly two decades, community patterns were widely similar, suggesting that climate change has not impacted local colonization or extirpation of mountaintop species in this arid region. These findings support observed differences in response to climate change between temperature-limited and water-limited regions globally, and highlight the lagged and variable nature of high-elevation systems. Our findings fill a major data gap on alpine plant community responses to climate change in the western United States and bolster the importance of long-term ecological monitoring with rapid climate change.

California, Nevada↗

The National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center annual report for 2013

In 2008, Congress created the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The center was formed to respond to the demands of natural resource managers for rigorous scientific information and effective tools for assessing and responding to climate change. Located at the USGS National Headquarters in Reston, Va., the NCCWSC has invested more than $93 million (through FY13) in cutting-edge climate change research and, in response to Secretarial Order No. 3289, established and is managing eight regional Department of Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs). In 2013: The DOI CSCs awarded nearly $7 million in funding to universities and other partners for climate and land-use change research. The scientific work of the NCCWSC-CSC enterprise moved toward projects that focus on ‘Science Infrastructure and Capacity Building’ and ‘Thematic Science’. A permanent director, David Helweg, Ph.D., was hired for the Pacific Islands CSC (PI CSC), completing the CSC leadership team. Staff scientists were hired at the Alaska (AK), Northeast (NE), and Southeast (SE) CSCs. Each of the eight CSCs completed the formation of regional Stakeholder Advisory Committees (SACs) and a national advisory committee (ACCCNRS) was created to oversee the NCCWSC-CSC enterprise. NCCWSC staff worked on creating a searchable public database on climate change vulnerability assessments. NCCWSC scientists authored articles in a special issue of the Ecological Society of America’s journal Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, which was devoted to an assessment of climate change effects on biodiversity and ecosystems, and the consequences for people. Learn more about these achievements in The National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center Annual Report for 2013 .

Circular↗

Action plan for restoration of coral reef coastal protection services: Case study example and workbook

This report was prepared by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), Office of Research and Development, as part of the Air, Climate and Energy (ACE) research program, with support from Tetra Tech, Inc., and in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Geological Survey, and The Nature Conservancy. The ACE research program provides scientific information and tools to support USEPA’s commitment to clean air, clean water and sustainable natural resources, even as environmental conditions change. A key component of this is the development of sound science to support adaptation. Adaptation involves preparing for and adjusting to the effects of climate change and its interactions with other global and local stressors. Because these effects are diverse, interactive, and difficult to predict, adapting management of natural resources in this context can be very challenging. Coral reefs—which provide valued ecosystem services such as fisheries, coastal protection, and tourism—are threatened by the effects of increased sea surface temperatures, sea level rise, and intensifying storms. These large-scale stressors are interacting with local stressors such as pollution, overfishing, and recreational misuse to drive ongoing and accelerating declines in coral reef ecosystems. Thus, there is a rising urgency to design and implement climate change adaptation measures that will enable reef resilience in the face of these changes. This includes accounting for, and adjusting to, the combined effects of climate change and local stressors in coral reef protection and restoration efforts. The action plan, example case study, and workbook found in this report demonstrate a structured process for integrating climate-smart design considerations into restoration planning using A Manager’s Guide to Coral Reef Restoration Planning and Design. The focus is a hypothetical coral reef restoration project that has a goal of recovering nature-based coastal protection services using restoration interventions. The intent is to provide readers with a completed example of how to use the Guide workbook to inform a draft action plan, centering on the topic of coastal protection as a burgeoning area of interest in coral reef science and management communities. The information in this hypothetical case study is not intended for direct use; rather, it provides a starting point for more detailed planning that would occur in specific places. And while a full review of the current literature on reef restoration methods is outside the scope of this report, readers are encouraged to use the examples herein as well as in the Guide as a jumping-off point for exploring the rapidly growing body of information on methods, techniques, successes, failures, monitoring challenges and future directions of coral reef restoration in a changing world. The workbook, together with the action plan, can serve as a valuable record of the planning thought process as well as a living document for adaptive management, to be updated through time as improved information becomes available.

EPA Report↗

Southeast Utah Group climate and drought adaptation report: Exposure and perennial grass sensitivity

National Park Service (NPS) managers face growing challenges resulting from the effects of climate change. In particular, as temperatures rise in coming decades, natural resource management in the western United States must cope with expectations for elevated severity and frequency of droughts. These challenges are particularly pronounced for vegetation managers in dryland environments. Developing adaptive strategies requires specific information about the expected magnitude of change in climate and drought conditions as well as insights into how those changes will affect important vegetation resources. This report describes research focused on Southeast Utah Group (SEUG) park units designed to provide information about exposure and sensitivity of perennial grasses to aridification. Analyses at larger regional scales are also reported for context and comparison. This report is a product of an ongoing climate adaptation collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NPS, and Northern Arizona University. The study it summarizes contributes quantitative ingredients for vulnerability assessments that are needed in the Climate-Smart Conservation framework. As such, the results informed a series of climate adaptation workshops conducted between 2018 and 2021 for Colorado Plateau scientists and managers. This is a giant step forward in science-informed management. The information in this report can be used to craft management strategies that can be implemented at the right place and time for individual species of concern.

Colorado, Utah↗

Simulated dynamics of carbon stocks driven by changes in land use, management and climate in a tropical moist ecosystem of Ghana

Sub-Saharan Africa is large and diverse with regions of food insecurity and high vulnerability to climate change. This project quantifies carbon stocks and fluxes in the humid forest zone of Ghana, as a part of an assessment in West Africa. The General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) was used to simulate the responses of natural and managed systems to projected scenarios of changes in climate, land use and cover, and nitrogen fertilization in the Assin district of Ghana. Model inputs included historical land use and cover data, historical climate records and projected climate changes, and national management inventories. Our results show that deforestation for crop production led to a loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) by 33% from 1900 to 2000. The results also show that the trend of carbon emissions from cropland in the 20th century will continue through the 21st century and will be increased under the projected warming and drying scenarios. Nitrogen (N) fertilization in agricultural systems could offset SOC loss by 6% with 30 kg N ha −1 year −1 and by 11% with 60 kg N ha −1 year −1 . To increase N fertilizer input would be one of the vital adaptive measures to ensure food security and maintain agricultural sustainability through the 21st century.

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment↗

The Face of Alaska: A Look at Land Cover and the Potential Drivers of Change

The purpose of this report is to provide statewide baseline information on the status and potential drivers of land-cover change in Alaska. The information gathered for this report is based on a review and analysis of published literature and consists of prominent factors contributing to the current state of the land surface of Alaska as well as a synthesis of information about the status and trends of the factors affecting the land surface of Alaska. The land surface of Alaska is sparsely populated and the impacts from humans are far less extensive when compared to the contiguous United States. The changes in the population and the economy of Alaska have historically been driven by boom and bust cycles, primarily from mineral discoveries, logging, military expansion, and oil and gas development; however, the changes as a result of these factors have occurred in relatively small, localized areas. Many of the large-scale statewide changes taking place in the land surface however, are a result of natural or climate driven processes as opposed to direct anthropogenic activities. In recent times, reports such as this have become increasingly useful as a means of synthesizing information about the magnitude and frequency of changes imparted by natural and anthropogenic forces. Thus, it is essential to assess the current state of the land surface of Alaska and identify apparent trends in the surficial changes that are occurring in order to be prepared for the future.

Open-File Report↗

Climate change and global carbon cycle: Perspectives and opportunities

The relevance of methane hydrates research to broader societal themes is often framed in terms of methane’s role in the global carbon cycle and its potential contribution to future climate change. To date, investigations of these fundamental issues have remained largely disconnected from applied studies focused on locating natural gas hydrate deposits, developing production technologies, and analyzing and mitigating hydrate-related geohazards. The 2005 reauthorization of the 2000 Methane Hydrate Research and Development Act provides broad latitude for better integration of applied and basic research related to methane hydrates, the carbon cycle, and climate change through its direction “to assess and to mitigate the environmental impact of hydrate degassing.” This mandate includes sponsoring research that evaluates whether methane hydrate degassing triggered by either natural or anthropogenic perturbations will (1) contribute to global climate change and (2) release significant quantities of currently sequestered carbon to the ocean-atmosphere system. This article provides an overview of progress and challenges in these areas and sets the stage for future research on related issues under the auspices of the Methane Hydrate Act.

Fire in the Ice: NETL Methane Hydrate Newsletter↗

Climate change impacts on ecosystems and ecosystem services in the United States: Process and prospects for sustained assessment

The third United States National Climate Assessment emphasized an evaluation of not just the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, but also the impacts of climate change on the benefits that people derive from nature, known as ecosystem services. The ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services component of the assessment largely drew upon the findings of a transdisciplinary workshop aimed at developing technical input for the assessment, involving participants from diverse sectors. A small author team distilled and synthesized this and hundreds of other technical input to develop the key findings of the assessment. The process of developing and ranking key findings hinged on identifying impacts that had particular, demonstrable effects on the U.S. public via changes in national ecosystem services. Findings showed that ecosystem services are threatened by the impacts of climate change on water supplies, species distributions and phenology, as well as multiple assaults on ecosystem integrity that, when compounded by climate change, reduce the capacity of ecosystems to buffer against extreme events. As ecosystems change, such benefits as water sustainability and protection from storms that are afforded by intact ecosystems are projected to decline across the continent due to climate change. An ongoing, sustained assessment that focuses on the co-production of actionable climate science will allow scientists from a range of disciplines to ascertain the capability of their forecasting models to project environmental and ecological change and link it to ecosystem services; additionally, an iterative process of evaluation, development of management strategies, monitoring, and reevaluation will increase the applicability and usability of the science by the U.S. public.

Climatic Change↗

National Park Service staff perspectives on how climate change affects visitor use

1. Many public lands, including those managed by the U.S. National Park Service(NPS), have the purpose of conserving natural and cultural resources and providing opportunities for visitors to recreate in and enjoy these areas. Achieving this mission becomes more challenging as drought, flooding, increasing temperatures and other climatic change effects are impacting NPS lands and visitors and affecting factors such as visitation, recreation access and health and safety among other aspects of park operations. 2. However, the literature lacks insights from staff dealing with on-the-ground climate impacts to visitor use. To address this gap, we held semi-structured interviews with 63 staff from 31 NPS units across the United States (U.S.) to better understand the effects of climate change on visitor use. We qualitatively analysed the interviews using both deductive and inductive methods to identify key themes. 3. Interview participants consistently noted that climate change is already affecting visitor use at their parks. For instance, increasing temperatures are negatively affecting both staff and visitor safety at parks nationwide, whereas all coastal parks within our sample are already experiencing impacts from sea-level rise or more frequent and severe coastal storms and hurricanes. Other impacts include reduced recreational access, damaged infrastructure and cultural resources and diminished visitor experiences due to fire and smoke. 4. Similarly, concerns about future impacts often revolved around the health and safety of visitors and staff—particularly related to wildfire and smoke, water quality and availability, and increased heat—and climate change forever altering parks. 5. Our research shows staff in parks and protected areas are noticing effects of climate change on visitor use; some of these impacts have not been previously documented in the scientific literature. Study results highlight future visitor use management research needs and key topics to consider for visitor use planning processes.

People and Nature↗

Potential climate and human water-use effects on water-quality trends in a semiarid, western U.S. watershed: Fountain Creek, Colorado, USA

Nutrients, total dissolved solids (TDS), and trace elements affect the suitability of water for human and natural needs. Here, trends in such water-quality constituents are analyzed for 1999–2022 for eight nested monitoring sites in the 24,000 km 2 Fountain Creek watershed in Colorado, USA, by using the weighted regressions on time, discharge, and season (WRTDS) methodology. Fountain Creek shares characteristics with other western U.S. watersheds: (1) an expanding but more water-efficient population, (2) a heavy reliance on imported water, (3) a semiarid climate trending towards warmer and drier conditions, and (4) shifts of water from agricultural to municipal uses. The WRTDS analysis found both upward and downward trends in the concentrations of nutrients that reflected possible shifts in effluent management, instream uptake, and water conservation by a watershed population that grew by about 40%. Selenium, other trace elements, and TDS can pose water-quality challenges downstream and their concentrations were found to have a downwards trend. Those trends could be driven by either a warming and drying of the local climate or decreased agricultural irrigation, as both would reduce recharge and subsequent mobilization from natural geologic sources via groundwater discharge. The patterns illustrate how changes in climate and water use may have affected water quality in Fountain Creek and demonstrate the patterns to look for in other western watersheds.

Colorado↗

Hierarchical distance-sampling models to estimate population size and habitat-specific abundance of an island endemic

Population size and habitat-specific abundance estimates are essential for conservation management. A major impediment to obtaining such estimates is that few statistical models are able to simultaneously account for both spatial variation in abundance and heterogeneity in detection probability, and still be amenable to large-scale applications. The hierarchical distance-sampling model of J. A. Royle, D. K. Dawson, and S. Bates provides a practical solution. Here, we extend this model to estimate habitat-specific abundance and rangewide population size of a bird species of management concern, the Island Scrub-Jay ( Aphelocoma insularis ), which occurs solely on Santa Cruz Island, California, USA. We surveyed 307 randomly selected, 300 m diameter, point locations throughout the 250-km 2 island during October 2008 and April 2009. Population size was estimated to be 2267 (95% CI 1613-3007) and 1705 (1212-2369) during the fall and spring respectively, considerably lower than a previously published but statistically problematic estimate of 12 500. This large discrepancy emphasizes the importance of proper survey design and analysis for obtaining reliable information for management decisions. Jays were most abundant in low-elevation chaparral habitat; the detection function depended primarily on the percent cover of chaparral and forest within count circles. Vegetation change on the island has been dramatic in recent decades, due to release from herbivory following the eradication of feral sheep ( Ovis aries ) from the majority of the island in the mid-1980s. We applied best-fit fall and spring models of habitat-specific jay abundance to a vegetation map from 1985, and estimated the population size of A. insularis was 1400-1500 at that time. The 20-30% increase in the jay population suggests that the species has benefited from the recovery of native vegetation since sheep removal. Nevertheless, this jay's tiny range and small population size make it vulnerable to natural disasters and to habitat alteration related to climate change. Our results demonstrate that hierarchical distance-sampling models hold promise for estimating population size and spatial density variation at large scales. Our statistical methods have been incorporated into the R package unmarked to facilitate their use by animal ecologists, and we provide annotated code in the Supplement.

California↗

Managing climate-change refugia to prevent extinctions

Earth is facing simultaneous biodiversity and climate crises. Climate-change refugia – areas that are relatively buffered from climate change – can help address both of these problems by maintaining biodiversity components when the surrounding landscape no longer can. However, this capacity to support biodiversity is often vulnerable to severe climate change and other stressors. Thus, management actions need to consider the complex and multidimensional nature of refugia. We outline an approach to understand refugia-promoting processes and to evaluate refugial capacity to determine suitable management actions. Our framework applies climate-change refugia as tools to facilitate resistance in modern conservation planning. Such refugia-focused management can reduce extinctions and maintain biodiversity under climate change.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

Final report for climate effects on the culture and ecology of sugar maple

Maple syrup is produced from the sap of sugar maple trees collected in the late winter and early spring. Native American tribes have collected and boiled down sap for centuries, and the tapping of maple trees is a cultural touchstone for many people in the northeast and Midwest. Because the tapping season is dependent on weather conditions, there is concern about the sustainability of maple sugaring as climate changes throughout the region. At the same time the demand for this natural sweetener and the production of maple syrup are increasing rapidly. Our research addressed the impact of climate on the quality of maple sap used to make maple syrup. We examined yields coupled with the sugar and biochemical composition of sap collected throughout the geographic range of sugar maple in the northeastern USA and Canada, and related this to historical and projected variation in climate. This is the first study to document potential climate related changes in sap production and sap quality across the full geographic range of sugar maple. Declines, as well as increased variability, in sap flow near the southern range limit and increased sap flow at the northern range limit suggest long term range shifts toward the north, as well as geographic variation in expected syrup production over the next several decades. Survey results highlighted that producers do perceive changes in climate variables and concomitant shifts in sap production. Many producers are willing to shift sap harvesting practices in response to changing climate scenarios, but producers are split in their perceptions about the importance of individual variables and their level of concern about future impacts on the industry. Overall, our results can be applied to design more effective extension programming and adaptation plans to mitigate the risk of climate in maple systems.

Indiana, Kentucky, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Q↗

Monitoring mountains in a changing world: New horizons for the Global Network for Observations and Information on Mountain Environments (GEO-GNOME)

Mountains are globally distributed environments that provide significant societal benefits, a function that is increasingly compromised by climatic change, environmental stress, political and socioeconomic transformations, and unsustainable use of natural resources. Gaps in our understanding of these processes and their interactions limit our capacity to inform decisions, where both generalities of mountain regions (eg climate processes) and specificities (eg context-specific manifestations of climate risks) matter. The Global Network for Observations and Information on Mountain Environments (GEO-GNOME), a Group on Earth Observations initiative, aims to fill these gaps through accessible Earth Observation (EO) as well as in-situ data and information on global change drivers, conditions, and trends. A workshop convened by the Mountain Research Initiative (MRI) revised GEO-GNOME's work plan, galvanizing a network that promotes relevant monitoring of global change in mountains and is responsive to the integrated knowledge needs of policy, research, and management.

Mountain Research and Development↗

Disease-smart climate adaptation for wildlife management and conservation

Climate change is a well-documented driver and threat multiplier of infectious disease in wildlife populations. However, wildlife disease management and climate-change adaptation have largely operated in isolation. To improve conservation outcomes, we consider the role of climate adaptation in initiating or exacerbating the transmission and spread of wildlife disease and the deleterious effects thereof, as illustrated through several case studies. We offer insights into best practices for disease-smart adaptation, including a checklist of key factors for assessing disease risks early in the climate adaptation process. By assessing risk, incorporating uncertainty, planning for change, and monitoring outcomes, natural resource managers and conservation practitioners can better prepare for and respond to wildlife disease threats in a changing climate.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

Simulated effects of pumping in the Death Valley Regional Groundwater Flow System, Nevada and California—Selected management scenarios projected to 2120

Declining water levels and reduced natural discharge at springs, seeps, and phreatophyte areas primarily are the result of decades of groundwater development in the Death Valley regional flow system, in Nevada and California. A calibrated groundwater-flow model was used to simulate potential future effects of groundwater pumping on water levels and natural groundwater discharge in the study area. Effects of climate change on future groundwater pumping were not considered and were beyond the scope of the study. Four groundwater-pumping scenarios were developed by stakeholders to predict and compare (1) the extent of regional water-level declines; (2) drawdown at Devils Hole; and (3) reductions in natural discharge at select discharge areas, including the Amargosa Wild and Scenic River, the Ash Meadows discharge area, the Furnace Creek area, and Stump Spring. Scenarios were simulated from 1913 to 2120, with historical pumping occurring from 1913 to 2010, historical 2010 pumping rates projected from 2010 to 2020, and scenario pumping beginning in 2020. Pumping scenarios included a base case and scenarios A, B, and C. The base case projected 2010 pumping rates from 2010 to 2120, and scenarios A, B, and C projected base case pumping plus additional pumping at various locations from 2020 to 2120. By 2020, historical (1913–2020) pumping resulted in the propagation of simulated drawdown of 1 foot (ft) or more westward from Pahrump Valley to areas north of Shoshone in the Pahrump to Death Valley South (PDVS) groundwater basin and the merging of simulated 1-ft drawdown contours between the Alkali Flat–Furnace Creek Ranch (AFFCR) and Ash Meadows groundwater basins. In the base case scenario, extent and magnitude of simulated drawdown continued to increase in the Ash Meadows and AFFCR groundwater basins from 2020 to 2120. In the base case, the magnitude of simulated drawdown continued to increase in western Pahrump Valley from 2020 to 2120, whereas simulated water levels rose in eastern Pahrump Valley from 2020 to 2070 and then stabilized from 2070 to 2120. Scenarios A and B primarily affected the PDVS and AFFCR groundwater basins by increasing the magnitude of drawdown in 2120, compared to the base case. In scenario C, drawdown propagated throughout a high-transmissivity part of the carbonate aquifer known as the megachannel, greatly affecting water levels in the Ash Meadows discharge area. Scenario C resulted in an additional 10–100 ft of drawdown (compared to the base case) throughout the southeastern part of the Ash Meadows groundwater basin by 2120. Simulated drawdowns in Devils Hole in 2120 were 3.2, 3.4, 3.8, and 25.4 ft for the base case and scenarios A, B, and C, respectively. The federally mandated minimum water level for Devils Hole is 2.7 ft below a reference point. In 2020, the simulated water level in Devils Hole was above the minimum water level, at 1.7 ft below the reference. Simulated water levels in Devils Hole fell below the federally mandated water level by 2078, 2073, 2058, and 2025 for the base case and scenarios A, B, and C, respectively, assuming a hypothetical recharge scenario of constant natural recharge. Simulated reductions in predevelopment (natural) discharge at select discharge areas ranged from 3 to 38 percent by 2120 for all scenarios. Amargosa Wild and Scenic River was the least affected discharge area with simulated capture rates ranging from 3 to 4 percent of predevelopment discharge by 2120. Ash Meadows discharge area was greatly affected by groundwater pumping in scenario C with a simulated capture rate of 38 percent, compared to simulated capture rates of 8, 8, and 9 percent for the base case, scenario A, and scenario B, respectively, in 2120. Simulated capture rates in the Furnace Creek area ranged from 10 to 11 percent for all scenarios in 2120. Simulated capture rates at Stump Spring ranged from 32 to 36 percent for all scenarios in 2120.

California, Nevada↗

Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change

Natural-resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural-resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait- and triage-based approaches encompassing the oft-overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco-physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural-resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real-world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions.

Conservation Biology↗