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At least 397 records · Page 22Linked to original sources

Prediction of pesticide toxicity in Midwest streams

The occurrence of pesticide mixtures is common in stream waters of the United States, and the impact of multiple compounds on aquatic organisms is not well understood. Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) models were developed to predict Pesticide Toxicity Index (PTI) values in unmonitored streams in the Midwest and are referred to as WARP-PTI models. The PTI is a tool for assessing the relative toxicity of pesticide mixtures to fish, benthic invertebrates, and cladocera in stream water. One hundred stream sites in the Midwest were sampled weekly in May through August 2013, and the highest calculated PTI for each site was used as the WARP-PTI model response variable. Watershed characteristics that represent pesticide sources and transport were used as the WARP-PTI model explanatory variables. Three WARP-PTI models—fish, benthic invertebrates, and cladocera—were developed that include watershed characteristics describing toxicity-weighted agricultural use intensity, land use, agricultural management practices, soil properties, precipitation, and hydrologic properties. The models explained between 41 and 48% of the variability in the measured PTI values. WARP-PTI model evaluation with independent data showed reasonable performance with no clear bias. The models were applied to streams in the Midwest to demonstrate extrapolation for a regional assessment to indicate vulnerable streams and to guide more intensive monitoring.

Midwest↗

Disease epidemics: Lessons for resilience in an increasingly connected world

In public health, the term resilience often refers to the personality traits that individuals possess which help them endure and recover from stressors. However, resilience as a system characteristic, especially in regards to complex social-ecological systems, can be informative for public health at scales larger than the individual. Acute shocks to systems occur against a background of existing conditions, which are crucial determinants of the eventual public health outcomes of those shocks, and in the context of complex dependencies among and between ecological and societal elements. Many components of a system's baseline condition are chronic public health concerns themselves and diminish the capacity of the system to perform in the face of acute shocks. The emerging field of resilience management is concerned with holistically assessing and improving a system's ability to prepare for and absorb disruption, and then recover and adapt across physical, information, environmental and social domains. Integrating resilience considerations into current risk- and evidence-based approaches to disease control and prevention 1 can move public health efforts toward more proactive and comprehensive solutions for protecting and improving the health of communities. Here, we look to the case of the Black Death as an illustrative case of a dramatic transformation in human history, an acute shock to a system that was underlain by chronic social maladies, to derive lessons about resilience management for public health in contemporary systems.

Journal of Public Health↗

Unexpected appetites: Metabarcoding reveals grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) foraging behaviors in the Great Lakes

Grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) are herbivorous fish introduced to North America in the 1960s, and they are now established throughout the Mississippi River basin and Laurentian Great Lakes. Despite increasingly intensified management efforts, limited information exists on their foraging ecology. We used DNA metabarcoding to characterize the gut contents of grass carp captured from 2019 to 2022 to evaluate spatial, temporal, and environmental patterns in diet composition across Lake Erie and Lake Michigan. Contrary to long-standing assumptions that grass carp primarily consume submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), results from Lake Erie’s western and central basins revealed a diet dominated by terrestrial and terrestrial-wetland plant genera, including maples ( Acer ), willows ( Salix ), cottonwoods ( Populus ), and nightshades ( Solanum ). In contrast, fish harvested from Lake Erie’s eastern basin and Lake Michigan tributaries consumed more SAV, particularly pondweeds like Potamogeton and Stuckenia . Diet composition varied by basin, river, and year, but not by ploidy (diploid vs. triploid). Distance-based redundancy analyses identified environmental variables as drivers of diet variability. These findings reframe previous risk assessments which were based on diets from small artificial environments, suggesting greater dietary plasticity and revealing previously overlooked terrestrial-aquatic food web connections. Results presented here could inform management actions and sampling locations. Understanding grass carp foraging behavior in invaded systems can provide a critical tool for refining removal strategies, preventing further expansion, and improving future ecological risk assessments.

Great Lakes↗

Water storage decisions and consumptive use may constrain ecosystem management under severe sustained drought

Drought has impacted the Colorado River basin for the past 20 years and is predicted to continue. In response, decisions about how much water should be stored in large reservoirs and how much water can be consumptively used will be necessary. These decisions have the potential to limit riverine ecosystem management options through the effect water-supply decisions have on reservoir elevations. We used projected hydrology and river temperatures to compare the outcome of combinations of water storage scenarios and consumptive use limits on metrics associated with ecosystem management of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Ecosystem management metrics included the ability to implement designer flows, temperature suitability for fishes, and fragmentation. We compared current water management operations to prioritizing storage in either Lake Mead or Lake Powell combined with three levels of consumptive use. Projected reservoir levels limited environmental flow delivery and increased fragmentation regardless of where water was stored if consumptive use was not limited. Warmer river temperatures associated with low reservoir levels are likely, creating suitable conditions for non-native species of concern, such as smallmouth bass. Water storage decisions provided variability and management flexibility, but water storage was less important when less water was available, highlighting the importance of keeping water in the system to provide flexibility for achieving ecosystem goals.

Arizona, Utah↗

Distribution limits of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis: a case study in the Rocky Mountains, USA

Knowledge of the environmental constraints on a pathogen is critical to predicting its dynamics and effects on populations. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), an aquatic fungus that has been linked with widespread amphibian declines, is ubiquitous in the Rocky Mountains. As part of assessing the distribution limits of Bd in our study area, we sampled the water column and sediments for Bd zoospores in 30 high-elevation water bodies that lacked amphibians. All water bodies were in areas where Bd has been documented from neighboring, lower-elevation areas. We targeted areas lacking amphibians because existence of Bd independent of amphibians would have both ecologic and management implications. We did not detect Bd, which supports the hypothesis that it does not live independently of amphibians. However, assuming a detection sensitivity of 59.5% (based on sampling of water where amphibians tested positive for Bd), we only had 95% confidence of detecting Bd if it was in > or =16% of our sites. Further investigation into potential abiotic reservoirs is needed, but our results provide a strategic step in determining the distributional and environmental limitations of Bd in our study region.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases↗

Influences of riparian vegetation on trout stream temperatures in central Wisconsin

Summer stream temperatures limit the distribution of Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis and are affected by riparian vegetation. We used riparian and instream habitat surveys along with stream temperature loggers placed throughout streams to determine the potential for riparian vegetation shading to increase the length of stream that is thermally suitable for Brook Trout. Twelve streams located throughout central Wisconsin were evaluated in the summers of 2007 and 2008. Across all streams, nonparametric ANCOVA modeling was used to identify spatial temperature patterns within a year for individual stream segments. Riparian tree-vegetated segments had a significantly lower mean change in stream temperature per kilometer of stream compared with grass-vegetated segments during the periods of maximum daily and weekly average temperatures, when we accounted for upstream temperature. Riparian grass-vegetated segments increased on average 1.19°C/km (SE, 0.44) during the maximum daily average temperature period and 0.93°C/km (SE, 0.39) during the maximum weekly average temperature period, whereas tree-vegetated segments decreased 0.48°C/km (SE, 0.39) and 0.30°C/km (SE, 0.25) during those respective time periods. Maximum weekly average temperatures were also modeled with different shading levels using a heat budget temperature model, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's Stream Segment Temperature Model. Across 11 study streams (one stream model could not be calibrated), modeled stream temperatures in equilibrium with their environmental conditions ranging from 23.2°C to 28.3°C at 0% shading could be reduced to 18.8–23.5°C with 75% shading. Modeled increases in shade up to 75% from the current average of 34% increased the length of surveyed stream thermally suitable to Brook Trout by 4.9 km on Sucker Creek. We conclude that riparian forests are important for maintaining thermal conditions suitable for Brook Trout in central Wisconsin streams and can be managed to increase the amount of stream habitat thermally suitable for Brook Trout.

Wisconsin↗

Environmental relationships with Silver Carp population ecology across the Mississippi River basin

Objective Silver Carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix are of special concern to fisheries management agencies across the Mississippi River basin, but effective control of the species is challenging. Our objectives were to (1) identify spatial and environmental patterns among key Silver Carp demographic rates that could be exploited by removal programs and (2) develop predictive models of Silver Carp demographic rates using readily available environmental data that could potentially be used to quantify population ecology without expending the resources to conduct population assessments. Methods We collected Silver Carp from six rivers within the lower Mississippi River subbasin (i.e., Arkansas, Cache, Mississippi, St. Francis, White, and Yazoo rivers) and compiled raw data from populations in the upper Mississippi, Missouri, and Ohio River subbasins to estimate demographic rates (i.e., growth, mortality, and recruitment variability). We compared the demographic rates among subbasins and between main stems and tributaries using standard nonparametric tests. We used information-theoretic model selection to evaluate relationships among demographic rates, environmental conditions, and invasion stage. Results In general, lower Mississippi River subbasin populations exhibited faster growth and lower mortality than did those from the upper Mississippi River subbasin. Populations in main-stem rivers did not differ from those in tributaries. More established populations in warmer, free-flowing rivers (e.g., White River) generally experienced faster growth, lower mortality, and more stable recruitment than less established populations in cooler, impounded rivers (e.g., Illinois River). Conclusions The results indicated that variability in Silver Carp populations was related to environmental conditions and invasion stage. Our results suggested that the effectiveness of removal programs might be ­improved by targeting populations in warm hydrologically variable rivers, as they may have increased reproduction capacities and emigration rates. The equations provided here may be used to estimate population ­demographics for Silver Carp and help determine their potential sensitivity to management actions, without expending the resources that are required to collect population-specific biological data.

Mississippi River basin↗

Dissolved organic carbon and disinfection by-product precursor release from managed peat soils

A wetland restoration demonstration project examined the effects of a permanently flooded wetland on subsidence of peat soils. The project, started in 1997, was done on Twitchell Island, in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta of California. Conversion of agricultural land to a wetland has changed many of the biogeochemical processes controlling dissolved organic carbon (DOC) release from the peat soils, relative to the previous land use. Dissolved organic C in delta waters is a concern because it reacts with chlorine, added as a disinfectant in municipal drinking waters, to form carcinogenic disinfection byproducts (DBPs), including trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs). This study explores the effects of peat soil biogeochemistry on DOC and DBP release under agricultural and wetland management. Results indicate that organic matter source, extent of soil organic matter decomposition, and decomposition pathways all are factors in THM formation. The results show that historical management practices dominate the release of DOC and THM precursors. However, within-site differences indicate that recent management decisions can contribute to changes in DOC quality and THM precursor formation. Not all aromatic forms of carbon are highly reactive and certain environmental conditions produce the specific carbon structures that form THMs. Both HAA and THM precursors are elevated in the DOC released under wetland conditions. The findings of this study emphasize the need to further investigate the roles of organic matter sources, microbial decomposition pathways, and decomposition status of soil organic matter in the release of DOC and DBP precursors from delta soils under varying land-use practices.

California↗

Assessing the topographic distribution of legacy soil phosphorus in agricultural fields of the Delmarva Peninsula, Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain, USA

Phosphorus (P) management remains a challenge in agricultural watersheds. The Choptank River Conservation Effects Assessment Project watershed, located in Maryland and Delaware and draining to the Chesapeake Bay, contains legacy soil P from historical dairy and poultry manure applications. These practices elevated soil P beyond crop needs, contributing to persistent P export to aquatic ecosystems. We assessed spatial P distribution and analyzed GIS (Geographic Information Systems)-derived landscape features driving legacy P movement on a farm (47 ha). We hypothesized that P accumulates in drained lowlands and depressional areas due to gravity-driven processes that accelerate P-enriched water to receiving waters via overland flow. In collaboration with the US Department of Agriculture Legacy P project, we collected 105 soil samples (0- to 5-cm and 5- to 15-cm depths) and 14 ditch sediment samples across five topographic openness classes from a farm with >100 years of dairy manure application. Average Mehlich-III P concentrations were 218 and 179 mg kg −1 at 0- to 5-cm and 5- to 15-cm depths, respectively, with legacy areas defined by P content > 100 mg kg −1 . Soil P and clay particle size were positively correlated ( r = 0.42, p < 0.05), increased as landscape openness decreased, and were negatively correlated with topographic openness (ranging from −0.2 to −0.4, p < 0.05), indicating accumulation of P and clay in low-lying areas. These patterns suggest that historical field-level managements have primarily shaped P distribution, while hydrologic and landscape properties further influence its redistribution via transport pathways and drainage. These findings support the development of landscape models to map critical source areas in low-relief watersheds and guide targeted mitigation in high-risk P export zones.

Maryland↗

Activity patterns of bats during the fall and spring along ridgelines in the central Appalachians

Many central Appalachian ridges offer high wind potential, making them attractive to future wind-energy development. Understanding seasonal and hourly activity patterns of migratory bat species may help to reduce fatalities at wind-energy facilities and provide guidance for the development of best management practices for bats. To examine hourly migratory bat activity patterns in the fall and spring in Virginia in an exploratory fashion with a suite of general temporal, environmental, and weather variables, we acoustically monitored bat activity on five ridgelines and side slopes from early September through mid-November 2015 and 2016 and from early March through late April 2016 and 2017. On ridges, bat activity decreased through the autumn sample period, but was more variable through the spring sample period. In autumn, migratory bat activity had largely ceased by mid-November. Activity patterns were species specific in both autumn and spring sample periods. Generally, migratory bat activity was negatively associated with hourly wind speeds but positively associated with ambient temperatures. These data provide further evidence that operational mitigation strategies at wind-energy facilities could help protect migratory bat species in the Appalachians; substantially slowing or locking wind turbine blade spin during periods of low wind speeds, often below where electricity is generated, and warm ambient temperatures may minimize mortality during periods of high bat activity.

Virginia, West Virginia↗

Water and endangered fish in the Klamath River Basin: Do Upper Klamath Lake surface elevation and water quality affect adult Lost River and Shortnose Sucker survival?

In the western United States, water allocation decisions often incorporate the needs of endangered fish. In the Klamath River basin, an understanding of temporal variation in annual survival rates of Shortnose Suckers Chasmistes brevirostris and Lost River Suckers Deltistes luxatus and their relation to environmental drivers is critical to water management and sucker recovery. Extinction risk is high for these fish because most individuals in the populations are approaching their maximum life span and recruitment of new fish into the adult populations has never exceeded mortality losses in the past 22 years. We used a time series of mark–recapture data from the years 1999–2021 to analyze the relationship between lake level, water quality covariates, and survival of adult Shortnose Suckers and two spawning populations of Lost River Suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. We compared competing model hypotheses in a maximum likelihood framework using Akaike's information criterion and then ran the top environmental covariates in a Bayesian framework to estimate how much of the variation in survival was explained by these covariates as compared to random variation. The complementary analyses found almost unequivocal support for our base model without environmental covariates. Estimated adult sucker survival was high across the time series and consistent with sucker life history (mean annual survival = 0.82–0.91). This suggests that adult suckers were generally robust to interannual variation in lake levels as well as consistently poor water quality within the years of our data set. Recovery time is limited, as a declining survival trend for adult suckers in recent years may be due to the onset of senescence. The successful recovery of suckers in Upper Klamath Lake may rely on shifting research from the causes of adult mortality and its relationship with lake surface elevation to the causes of poor recruitment into adult populations.

California, Oregon↗

Estimating age and growth of invasive sea lamprey: A review of approaches and investigation of a new method

We review recent advances in age and growth estimation of invasive sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) in the Great Lakes and present a more accurate method for growth estimation. To forecast growth and prioritize streams for control actions, sea lamprey managers currently use an average daily growth model. Here, a new linear model that included stream and lake as contributing variables was investigated and found to outperform the currently used growth model (roughly a 10 mm difference at age 1). Length-at-age of larvae between ages 1 and 4 were also best forecasted by a linear model with the predictor variables including growing degree days, stream, lake, and larval lamprey density. The model predicts that larval sea lamprey grow faster in warm streams with low densities of lamprey larvae. More accurate growth models could allow sea lamprey control managers to improve decisions concerning how sea lamprey control effort is allocated among streams, and could help inform broader modeling efforts evaluating the population demographics of a lake-wide populations exposed to varying control and environmental scenarios. Priority areas for research include investigating if temperatures have increased in sea lamprey-producing streams in response to climate change, using close-kin mark-recapture to mark family groups at age 1 to age large larvae and transformers years later, and determining if sex determination is environmentally mediated by larval growth and density.

Great Lakes↗

Variability and regulation of denitrification in an Upper Mississippi River backwater

Sediments in the backwaters of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) are highly organic and provide an optimal environment for N removal. We monitored an 8.6-ha UMR backwater site near La Crosse, Wisconsin, for nearly 3 y to assess temporal variability, seasonal trends, and the factors regulating denitrification. We measured rates of unamended denitrification (DEN) and denitrification enzyme activity (DEA) rates at ambient temperature and DEA at 30 degrees C (DEA30). Seasonal mean (+/- 1 SE) DEN rates ranged from 0.041 +/- 0.015 to 0.47 +/- 0.23 mu g N cm(-2) h(-1)and were highest in winter and lowest in autumn. Seasonal rates of DEA exhibited a different pattern with the highest rates in summer (25.6 +/- 3.4 mu g N cm(-2) h(-1)) and the lowest rates in winter (10.6 +/- 2.1 mu g N cm(-2) h(-1)). The overall mean DEA30 rate was 31.0 +/- 1.9 mu g N cm(-2) h(-1) but showed no significant seasonal pattern. Short-term (weekly) and seasonal variability exhibited by rates of DEN and DEA were best explained by water-column NO3- concentration and temperature, respectively. No environmental variables explained a significant amount of variability in DEA30. Our results suggest that nutrient (i.e., NO3-) availability and temperature are both regulators of denitrification, with NO3- concentration being the most important limiting factor in this system. The high DEN rates during winter were in response to elevated NO3- concentrations resulting from a chain reaction beginning with algal blooms creating oxic conditions that stimulated nitrification. Increasing hydrological connectivity in large rivers as a river management tool to reduce N flux to downstream areas may be beneficial.

Journal of the North American Benthological Societ↗

Conducting field studies for testing pesticide leaching models

A variety of predictive models are being applied to evaluate the transport and transformation of pesticides in the environment. These include well known models such as the Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), the Risk of Unsaturated-Saturated Transport and Transformation Interactions for Chemical Concentrations Model (RUSTIC) and the Groundwater Loading Effects of Agricultural Management Systems Model (GLEAMS). The potentially large impacts of using these models as tools for developing pesticide management strategies and regulatory decisions necessitates development of sound model validation protocols. This paper offers guidance on many of the theoretical and practical problems encountered in the design and implementation of field-scale model validation studies. Recommendations are provided for site selection and characterization, test compound selection, data needs, measurement techniques, statistical design considerations and sampling techniques. A strategy is provided for quantitatively testing models using field measurements.

International Journal of Environmental Analytical ↗

Satellite assessment of winter cover crop and conservation tillage outcomes to support adaptive management in working landscapes

The use of winter cover crops and conservation tillage are agricultural practices promoted to reduce nutrient and sediment loss from cropland, improve soil health, increase infiltration, and support farm nutrient cycling and ecosystem services. However, environmental performance of these practices is variable in the working farm landscape. The Lower Chesapeake Bay research project within the USDA Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network has collaboratively developed satellite remote sensing algorithms to measure the performance and phenology of winter cover crops (aboveground biomass, nitrogen content, fractional cover, and emergence and termination dates) using no-cost Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 multispectral satellite imagery. This research supports annual operational assessment of >28,000 fields per year in four states. Results document the impacts of agronomic management on conservation outcomes, support adaptive management of incentive payment structures, and can reduce the workload for conservation district staff by remotely verifying cover crop management. Additionally, super-spectral satellite applications have been developed to accurately map crop residue cover by measuring lignocellulose absorption in shortwave infrared wavelengths, producing a 7-year time series of tillage intensity maps for the Delmarva Peninsula. These remote sensing products can be used in decision support and modeling to estimate changes in nutrient, sediment, and carbon cycling resulting from conservation practice implementation in the working farm landscape. This manuscript provides an overview of remote sensing research findings and applications associated with the USDA LTAR and Conservation Effects Assessment Projects (CEAP), documenting a variety of previously published outcomes with update and expansion of techniques using additional unpublished data and analyses as appropriate.

Maryland↗

Preface—Evaluating the response of critical zone processes to human impacts with sediment source fingerprinting

1) Background: Critical Zone Processes in the Anthropocene The Earth’s Critical Zone encompasses a suite of interconnected processes in the near-surface lithosphere, pedosphere, biosphere, atmosphere, and hydrosphere (Brantley et al., 2007; Lin, 2010) (Fig. 1). Processes and interactions both within and between these various Critical Zone components supports life-sustaining ecosystem services and resources that establish the foundation for humanity (NRC, 2001). This includes the formation production of fertile soils, flourishing vegetation, productive rivers, lakes and oceans, and our life-sustaining atmosphere (Gaillardet, 2014; Guo and Lin, 2016). Rapid population growth, land use intensification, and global environmental change are disturbing many of these fundamental Critical Zone processes. More than half of the Earth’s terrestrial surface is now impacted by anthropogenic activities (e.g., clearing, grazing, plowing, mining, and logging) (Hooke et al., 2012; Richter and Mobley, 2009). These changes are so widespread and pervasive that the great acceleration of socioeconomic development that occurred around 1950 (Fig. 2) has been recommended to delineate the dawn of the Anthropocene (Waters et al., 2016). Although the utility of adopting and delineating the Anthropocene as the current epoch is subject to debate (Crutzen, 2002; Ruddiman et al., 2015; Smith and Zeder, 2013), the concept effectively highlights both the nature and the extent of our global impact on Earth’s Critical Zone. Soil forming processes and ecosystem services provided by the pedosphere are central to the Critical Zone (Banwart et al., 2011; Lin, 2010). Many of these processes have been disturbed by the agricultural intensification that coincided with the great acceleration resulting in unsustainable land use practices now outpacing soil formation processes (Brantley et al., 2007). As agricultural landscapes now cover an area equivalent to what was scoured during the last glacial maximum (Amundson et al., 2007), the broad-scale intensification of anthropogenic activities has resulted in significant on- and off-site impacts. On-site, soil loss has resulted in decreases in soil fertility and agricultural yields (Ladha et al., 2009) threatening the ability to feed the world’s growing population (Brantley et al., 2007). Off-site, the excess delivery of particulate matter downstream is degrading riverine, lacustrine, and estuarine ecosystems (Bilotta and Brazier, 2008; Clark, 1985; Owens et al., 2005). The challenge, as noted by Brantley et al., (2007), is that despite our society having over 10,000 years of experience working with soils, our conceptual and quantitative models remain inadequate at predicting Critical Zone dynamics under current conditions. Notwithstanding growing pressure for improved environmental management, we still have a limited capacity to predict changes in the Critical Zone in response to anthropogenic activities owing to the multiple spatial and temporal scales at which these complex processes and feedbacks are manifest. As river basin systems are impacted by many of these processes, a deep understanding of soil-sediment continuum dynamics may provide a valuable framework for evaluating the disturbance response of Critical Zone processes. Understanding these processes may also provide land and resource managers with the information necessary to manage both the on-site and off-site effects of accelerated soil erosion.

Journal of Soils and Sediments↗

Using a mechanistic model to develop management strategies to cool Apache Trout streams under the threat of climate change

User‐friendly stream temperature models populated with on‐site data may help in developing strategies to manage temperatures of individual stream reaches that are subject to climate change. We used the field‐tested Stream Segment Temperature model (U.S. Geological Survey) to simulate how altering discharge, groundwater input, channel wetted width, and shade prevents the temperatures of White Mountain, Arizona, stream reaches from exceeding the thermal tolerance of Apache Trout Oncorhynchus apache , both under existing conditions and under a climate change scenario. Simulations suggested increasing shade, either through streamside planting of specific numbers and species of plants or by other means, would be most effective and feasible for cooling the stream reaches we studied. Ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa and Douglas fir Pseudotsuga menziesii provided the most shade followed in order by Engelman spruce Picea engelmannii , Bebb's willow Salix bebbiana , Arizona alder Alnus oblongifolia , and finally coyote willow Salix exigua . Vegetation survival depends on the appropriateness of site conditions at present and under climate change, and planting in buffer strips minimizes additional water removal from the watershed through evapotranspiration. Alternative shading options, including thick sedge growth, shade cloth, or felled woody vegetation, may be considered when environmental conditions do not support plantings. Increasing groundwater input can cool streams, but additional sources are scarce in the region. Decreasing the width‐to‐depth ratio would succeed best on reaches with widths greater than 2.0 m. Increasing discharge from upstream may lower water temperature on reaches with an initial discharge greater than 0.5 m 3 /s. Existing models provide suggestions to cool stream reaches. Further development of accessible software packages that incorporate evaporation, fragmentation, and other projected climate change effects into their routines will provide additional tools to help manage climate change effects.

Arizona↗

Combining expert knowledge of a threatened trout distribution with sparse occupancy data for climate-related projection

Objective To evaluate the vulnerability of Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus to potential climate changes across its range in Oregon, we compiled disparate expert knowledge of the distribution of spawning and rearing and combined these probabilistic statements as data along with documented records of breeding and rearing in a joint occupancy model. Methods The joint expert knowledge–occupancy model, which was based on discrete patches of cold water (≤13°C) suitable for spawning and rearing, permitted the association of true occupancy with climate and other explanatory variables while accounting for variation in detection probability. We then applied estimated relationships of patch occupancy with explanatory variables to projected coldwater patch configurations in the years 2040 and 2080. Result Projections of the kilometers of occupied coldwater patch in future decades suggest precipitous declines if current relationships of occupancy with environmental variables are maintained. Impacts of climate changes in future decades manifest directly through the outright loss of coldwater patches and increases in winter high flows but also indirectly by increased isolation. Conclusion Combining probabilistic statements of species distributions from knowledgeable experts with sparse occupancy data may be a robust and timely alternative when large numbers of repeated occupancy surveys are infeasible.

Oregon↗