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At least 397 records · Page 22Linked to original sources

USGS2014

Shifts in plant functional types have time-dependent and regionally variable impacts on dryland ecosystem water balance

Summary 1. Terrestrial vegetation influences hydrologic cycling. In water-limited, dryland ecosystems, altered ecohydrology as a consequence of vegetation change can impact vegetation structure, ecological functioning and ecosystem services. Shrub steppe ecosystems dominated by big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) are widespread across western North America, and provide a range of ecosystem services. While sagebrush abundance in these ecosystems has been altered over the past century, and changes are likely to continue, the ecohydrological consequences of sagebrush removal and reestablishment remain unclear. 2. To characterize the immediate and medium-term patterns of water cycling and availability following sagebrush plant community alteration, we applied the SOILWAT ecosystem water balance model to 898 sites across the distribution of sagebrush ecosystems, representing the three primary sagebrush ecosystem types: sagebrush shrublands, sagebrush steppe and montane sagebrush. At each site, we examined three vegetation conditions representing intact sagebrush, recently disturbed sagebrush and recovered but grass-dominated vegetation. 3. Transition from shrub to grass dominance decreased precipitation interception and transpiration and increased soil evaporation and deep drainage. Relative to intact sagebrush vegetation, simulated soils in the herbaceous vegetation phases typically had drier surface layers and wetter deep layers. 4. Our simulations suggested that alterations in ecosystem water balance may be most pronounced in vegetation representing recently disturbed conditions (herbaceous vegetation with low biomass) and only modest in conditions representing recovered, but still grass-dominated vegetation. Furthermore, the ecohydrological impact of simulated sagebrush removal depended on climate; while short-term changes in water balance were greatest in wet areas represented by the montane sagebrush ecosystem type, medium-term impacts were greatest in dry areas of sagebrush shrublands and sagebrush steppe. 5. Synthesis. This study provides a novel, regional-scale assessment of how plant functional type transitions may impact ecosystem water balance in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems of North America. Results illustrate that the ecohydrological consequences of changing vegetation depend strongly on climate and suggest that decreasing woody plant abundance may have only limited impact on evapotranspiration and water yield.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2015

Effects of climate and land cover on hydrology in the southeastern U.S.: Potential impacts on watershed planning

The hydrologic response to statistically downscaled general circulation model simulations of daily surface climate and land cover through 2099 was assessed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin located in the southeastern United States. Projections of climate, urbanization, vegetation, and surface-depression storage capacity were used as inputs to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System to simulate projected impacts on hydrologic response. Surface runoff substantially increased when land cover change was applied. However, once the surface depression storage was added to mitigate the land cover change and increases of surface runoff (due to urbanization), the groundwater flow component then increased. For hydrologic studies that include projections of land cover change (urbanization in particular), any analysis of runoff beyond the change in total runoff should include effects of stormwater management practices as these features affect flow timing and magnitude and may be useful in mitigating land cover change impacts on streamflow. Potential changes in water availability and how biota may respond to changes in flow regime in response to climate and land cover change may prove challenging for managers attempting to balance the needs of future development and the environment. However, these models are still useful for assessing the relative impacts of climate and land cover change and for evaluating tradeoffs when managing to mitigate different stressors.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia↗

USGS2020

Marine latitudinal diversity gradients, niche conservatism and out of the tropics and Arctic: Climatic sensitivity of small organisms

Aim The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is a consequence of evolutionary and ecological mechanisms acting over long history, and thus is best investigated with organisms that have rich fossil records. However, combined neontological‐palaeontological investigations are mostly limited to large, shelled invertebrates, which keeps our mechanistic understanding of LDGs in its infancy. This paper aims to describe the modern meiobenthic ostracod LDG and to explore the possible controlling factors and the evolutionary mechanisms of this large‐scale biodiversity pattern. Location Present‐day Western North Atlantic. Taxon Ostracoda. Methods We compiled ostracod census data from shallow‐marine environments of the western North Atlantic Ocean. Using these data, we documented the marine LDG with multiple metrics of alpha, beta (nestedness and turnover) and gamma diversity, and we tested whether macroecological patterns could be governed by different environmental factors, including temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, pH and primary productivity. We also explored the geologic age distribution of ostracod genera to investigate the evolutionary mechanisms underpinning the LDG. Results Our results show that temperature and climatic niche conservatism are important in setting LDGs of these small, poorly dispersing organisms. We also found evidence for some dispersal‐driven spatial dynamics in the ostracod LDG. Compared to patterns observed in marine bivalves, however, dispersal dynamics were weaker and they were bi‐directional, rather than following the ‘out‐of‐the‐tropics’ model. Main conclusions Our detailed analyses revealed that meiobenthic organisms, which comprise two‐thirds of marine diversity, do not always follow the same rules as larger, better‐studied organisms. Our findings suggest that the understudied majority of biodiversity may be more sensitive to climate than well‐studied, large organisms. This implies that the impacts of ongoing Anthropocene climatic change on marine ecosystems may be much more serious than presently thought.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2017

Climate-induced trends in predator–prey synchrony differ across life-history stages of an anadromous salmonid

Differential climate-induced shifts in phenology can create mismatches between predators and prey, but few studies have examined predator–prey mismatch across multiple life-history stages. We used long-term data from a warming stream with shifting salmonid migration timings to quantify intra-annual migration synchrony between predatory Dolly Varden ( Salvelinus malma ) and Pacific salmon prey and examined how predator–prey synchrony has been influenced by climate change. We demonstrate that Dolly Varden have become increasingly mismatched with spring downstream migrations of abundant pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha ) juveniles. However, Dolly Varden have remained matched with fall upstream migrations of spawning Pacific salmon, including coho ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ), sockeye ( Oncorhynchus nerka ), and pink salmon. Downstream predator–prey migration synchrony decreased over time and with higher temperatures, particularly with pink salmon. In contrast, upstream migration synchrony was temporally stable and increased with rising temperatures. Differing trends in Dolly Varden predator–prey synchrony may be explained by the direct use of salmon to cue upstream migration, but not downstream migration. Overall, we show that climate change can have differing impacts on predator–prey synchrony across life-history stages.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Hibernal habitat selection by Wood Frogs ( Lithobates sylvaticus ) in a northern New England montane landscape

Poikilothermic species, such as amphibians, endure harsh winter conditions via freeze-tolerance or freeze-avoidance strategies. Freeze-tolerance requires a suite of complex, physiological mechanisms (e.g., cryoprotectant synthesis); however, behavioral strategies (e.g., hibernal habitat selection) may be used to regulate hibernaculum temperatures and promote overwintering survival. We investigated the hibernal ecology of the freeze-tolerant Wood Frog ( Lithobates sylvaticus ) in north-central Maine. Our objectives were to characterize the species hibernaculum microclimate (temperature, relative humidity), evaluate hibernal habitat selection, and describe the spatial arrangement of breeding, post-breeding, and hibernal habitats. We monitored 15 frogs during two winters (2011/12: N = 10; 2012/13: N = 5), measured hibernal habitat features at micro (2 m) and macro (10 m) spatial scales, and recorded microclimate hourly in three strata (hibernaculum, leaf litter, ambient air). We compared these data to that of 57 random locations with logistic regression models, Akaike Information Criterion, and Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests. Hibernaculum microclimate was significantly different and less variable than leaf litter, ambient air, and random location microclimate. Model averaging indicated that canopy cover (−), leaf litter depth (+), and number of logs and stumps (+; microhabitat only) were important predictors of Wood Frog hibernal habitat. These habitat features likely act to insulate hibernating frogs from extreme and variable air temperatures. For example, decreased canopy cover facilitates increased snowpack depth and earlier snowpack accumulation and melt. Altered winter temperature and precipitation patterns attributable to climate change may reduce snowpack insulation, facilitate greater temperature variation in the underlying hibernacula, and potentially compromise Wood Frog winter survival.

Maine↗

USGS2016

Seasonal electrical resistivity surveys of a coastal bluff, Barter Island, North Slope Alaska

Select coastal regions of the North Slope of Alaska are experiencing high erosion rates that can be attributed in part to recent warming trends and associated increased storm intensity and frequency. The upper sediment column of the coastal North Slope of Alaska can be described as continuous permafrost underlying a thin (typically less than 1–2 m) active layer that responds variably to seasonal thaw cycles. Assessing the temporal and spatial variability of the active layer and underlying permafrost is essential to better constrain how heightened erosion may impact material fluxes to the atmosphere and the coastal ocean, and how enhanced thaw cycles may impact the stability of the coastal bluffs. In this study, multi-channel electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) was used to image shallow subsurface features of a coastal bluff west of Kaktovik, on Barter Island, northeast Alaska. A comparison of a suite of paired resistivity surveys conducted in early and late summer 2014 provided detailed information on how the active layer and permafrost are impacted during the short Arctic summer. Such results are useful in the development of coastal resilience models that tie together fluvial, terrestrial, climatic, geologic, and oceanographic forcings on shoreline stability.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Long-term shifts in the phenology of rare and endemic Rocky Mountain plants

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Mountainous regions support high plant productivity, diversity, and endemism, yet are highly vulnerable to climate change. Historical records and model predictions show increasing temperatures across high elevation regions including the Southern Rocky Mountains, which can have a strong influence on the performance and distribution of montane plant species. Rare plant species can be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their limited abundance and distribution. METHODS: We tracked the phenology of rare and endemic species, which are identified as imperiled, across three different habitat types with herbarium records to determine if flowering time has changed over the last century, and if phenological change was related to shifts in climate. KEY RESULTS: We found that the flowering date of rare species has accelerated 3.1 d every decade (42 d total) since the late 1800s, with plants in sagebrush interbasins showing the strongest accelerations in phenology. High winter temperatures were associated with the acceleration of phenology in low elevation sagebrush and barren river habitats, whereas high spring temperatures explained accelerated phenology in the high elevation alpine habitat. In contrast, high spring temperatures delayed the phenology of plant species in the two low-elevation habitats and precipitation had mixed effects depending on the season. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide evidence for large shifts in the phenology of rare Rocky Mountain plants related to climate, which can have strong effects on plant fitness, the abundance of associated wildlife, and the future of plant conservation in mountainous regions.

American Journal of Botany↗

USGS2007

Relations between winter precipitation and atmospheric circulation simulated by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model

General circulation model (GCM) simulations of atmospheric circulation are more reliable than GCM simulations of temperature and precipitation. In this study, temporal correlations between 700 hPa height anomalies simulated winter precipitation at eight locations in the conterminous United States are compared with corresponding correlations in observations. The objectives are to 1) characterize the relations between atmospheric circulation and winter precipitation simulated by the GFDL, GCM for selected locations in the conterminous USA, ii) determine whether these relations are similar to those found in observations of the actual climate system, and iii) determine if GFDL-simulated precipitation is forced by the same circulation patterns as in the real atmosphere. -from Authors

International Journal of Climatology↗

USGS2020

Effects of a temperature rise on melatonin and thyroid hormones during smoltification of Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar

Smoltification prepares juvenile Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) for downstream migration. Dramatic changes characterize this crucial event in the salmon’s life cycle, including increased gill Na + /K + -ATPase activity (NKA) and plasma hormone levels. The triggering of smoltification relies on photoperiod and is modulated by temperature. Both provide reliable information, to which fish have adapted for thousands of years, that allows deciphering daily and calendar time. Here we studied the impact of different photoperiod (natural, sustained winter solstice) and temperature (natural, ~ + 4° C) combinations, on gill NKA, plasma free triiodothyronine (T3) and thyroxine (T4), and melatonin (MEL; the time-keeping hormone), throughout smoltification. We also studied the impact of temperature history on pineal gland MEL production in vitro. The spring increase in gill NKA was less pronounced in smolts kept under sustained winter photoperiod and/or elevated temperature. Plasma thyroid hormone levels displayed day–night variations, which were affected by elevated temperature, either independently from photoperiod (decrease in T3 levels) or under natural photoperiod exclusively (increase in T4 nocturnal levels). Nocturnal MEL secretion was potentiated by the elevated temperature, which also altered the MEL profile under sustained winter photoperiod. Temperature also affected pineal MEL production in vitro, a response that depended on previous environmental acclimation of the organ. The results support the view that the salmon pineal is a photoperiod and temperature sensor, highlight the complexity of the interaction of these environmental factors on the endocrine system of S. salar , and indicate that climate change might compromise salmon’s time “deciphering” during smoltification, downstream migration and seawater residence.

Journal of Comparative Physiology B: Biochemical, ↗

USGS2000

Suspended-sediment and fresh-water discharges in the Ob and Yenisey rivers, 1960-1988

Of the world's great rivers, the Ob and Yenisey rank among the largest suppliers of fresh water and among the smallest suppliers of suspended sediment to the coastal ocean. Sediment in the middle reaches of the rivers is mobilized from bordering terraces and exchanged between channels and flood plains. Sediment in the lower reaches of these great rivers is deposited and stored (permanently, on a millennial time scale) in flood plains. Sediment discharges, already small under natural conditions, are diminished further by large manmade reservoirs that trap significant proportions of the moving solids. The long winter freeze and sudden spring breakup impose a peakedness in seasonal water runoff and sediment discharge that contrasts markedly with that in rivers of the tropics and more temperate climates. Very little sediment from the Ob and Yenisey rivers is being transported to the open waters of the Arctic Ocean under present conditions.

Arctic Ocean, Gulf of Ob, Irtysh River, Ob River, ↗

USGS2025

A spatiotemporal deep learning approach for predicting daily air-water temperature signal coupling and identification of key watershed physical parameters in a montane watershed

Seasonal shifts from runoff to groundwater dominance influence daily headwater stream temperatures, especially where local groundwater input is strong. This input buffers temperature during hot periods, supporting cold-water habitats. Recent studies use air–water temperature signal metrics to identify zones of strong stream–groundwater connectivity. While Previous studies used air–water signal ratios as proxies for groundwater influence but were limited to specific sites and periods, without dynamic forecasting. This study is the first to forecast daily A r as a spatiotemporal signal using a Graph Convolutional Network–Long Short-Term Memory (GCN-LSTM) model. The model was trained using hydroclimate data (air temperature, precipitation, shortwave radiation, streamflow) and watershed physical features (e.g., sand content, slope). Results showed high predictive skill, achieving R 2 (NSE, RMSE) of 0.86 (0.73, 0.0004) for one-day-ahead to 0.52 (0.50, 0.0009) for seven-days ahead forecasts. Prior studies often have not explicitly incorporated spatial hydrogeologic drivers, but this model explicitly incorporates them to assess their impact on A r forecasting and stream-groundwater connectivity. Feature analysis identified mean sand, elevation, slope, clay, and TWI as key predictors of A r . Stronger groundwater signals appeared in hillslopes, elevations, and tributaries, highlighting watershed influence on streamflow. However, limitations include reliance on historical air–water temperature patterns for training and limited representation of extreme climate conditions. Despite these limitations, unlike previous studies relying on measured in-situ stream and air temperature, this study forecasts A r directly from climate and physiographic features after training, avoiding in-situ data requirements. Findings aiding predictions of stream ecosystem resilience.

New York↗

USGS2026

Deep learning error post-processing improves stochastic watershed modeling

Hydrologic extremes, including floods and droughts, pose substantial societal risks that are expected to intensify with climate change. Deterministic watershed models (DWMs) remain a mainstay for modeling these extremes, but lack explicit representation of uncertainty, limiting their utility for risk-informed planning. Stochastic watershed models (SWMs) address this limitation by generating ensembles of streamflow via models of observed DWM residuals. However, most SWMs struggle with the complex dependence between DWM residuals and the underlying hydrologic state, which can complicate stochastic simulations under nonstationary climates. Deep learning (DL) models, whether used as standalone models or post-processors for process-based DWMs, offer a pathway to address this challenge by reducing conditional dependence. In this study, we evaluate SWMs applied to seven models: three process-based models (PRMS, Hymod, and HBV), their hybrid process-DL counterparts, and a pure DL DWM, focusing on daily simulations and extremes under both historical conditions and synthetic climate change scenarios. Results for a case study watershed in Massachusetts show that SWMs applied to hybrid or pure DL DWMs consistently outperform those applied to process-based DWMs. However, an SWM applied to the pure DL model exhibits weaknesses at low flows for this study basin, underscoring the value of hybrid approaches. Extending the analysis across 73 additional basins demonstrates that these improvements are robust and generalizable statewide. This work highlights the potential of a DL-enhanced stochastic watershed modeling framework to advance hydrologic risk prediction under changing climate conditions, offering a scalable methodology for integrating uncertainty into watershed modeling for long-term planning.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS1997

Sedimentary history and mass flow structures of Chryse and Acidalia Planitiae, Mars

Geologic mapping and crater counting in Chryse and Acidalia Planitiae (GAP) reveal five major sedimentary deposits of Hesperian to Early Amazonian age, including (1) a mass flow deposited during the Early Hesperian near Deuteronilus Mensae (northeast of the map region) that may have resulted from the carving of Kasei Valles, >3000 km southwest of the exposed part of the deposit; (2) knobby plains material consisting of channel (likely; from Simud and Tiu Valles and possibly Ares and Shalbatana Valles) and mass-wasting deposits in central and eastern CAP; (3) material largely from Maja and Ares Valles emplaced in at least western and southern CAP (outcrops in southern Chryse Planitia developed thermokarst); (4) a thin mass flow covering much of southern Chryse Planitia that emanated from Simud and Tiu Valles; and (5) a thick, extensive (perhaps >3500 km across) mass flow deposit in central and northern CAP derived from accumulation and backflow of the preceding thin mass flow or perhaps melting of polar deposits. Other possible deposits may not be recognizable owing to burial by younger materials or a lack of morphologic signature. Various associated landforms appear to be consistent with the mass flow interpretations, including lobate and linear scarps along deposit edges, fractures related to desiccation of thick sediments, troughs, and ridges near the edges of the deposit indicative of secondary mass movement and deformation, pitted domes and fissure-fed flows possibly formed by sedimentary (mud) eruptions, and longitudinal channel grooves perhaps formed by roller vortices. No convincing evidence for paleoshorelines or stagnant ice sheets is found in CAP. These findings suggest that mass flow and hyperconcentrated flooding may have been the predominant processes of outflow-channel dissection in CAP. Elsewhere in the northern plains, similar landforms are prevalent. The mass flow interpretation does not require either multiple episodes of extraordinarily high water-discharge rates achieved by freeing huge volumes of water from the crust, repetitive recycling of immense volumes of water into highland aquifers at the heads of Chryse channels, or profound climate change. Mars Pathfinder will most likely land on and inspect the surface of the thin mass flow that originated from the canyons of Simud and Tiu Valles.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2009

Snow and ice in a changing hydrological world

On the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, the 100th and 50th anniversaries of the First and Second International Polar Years, and the 25th anniversary of the International Geophysical Year, it seems appropriate to re-examine the world's water balance and the role of snow and ice in the global hydrological climatic system. Snow cover on land (especially in the Northern Hemisphere) and sea ice (especially in the Southern Hemisphere) vary seasonally, and this seasonal change has an important effect on the world climate because snow and sea ice reflect solar radiation efficiently and affect other heat flow processes between atmosphere and land or ocean. Glaciers, including ice sheets, store most of the fresh water on Earth, but change dimensions relatively slowly. There is no clear evidence that the glacier ice volume currently is declining, but more needs to be known about mountain glacier and ice sheet mass balances. The current rise in sea level poses an enigma: thermal expansion of the oceans may account for half of the present rise, but the other half is unexplained. Although major changes in the large ice sheets take place over time scales of 10 4 to 10 5 years, marine ice sheets may be subject to rapid disintegration due to grounding line instability, perhaps accompanied by surging. Ice cores may produce remarkably complete histories of air temperature, precipitation, fallout, and atmospheric composition. A recent core through the Greenland Ice Sheet shows an abrupt transition from glacial to modern climate just over 10000 years ago, suggesting that climate is an “almost intransitive” system. Because of the possibility of abrupt climate transitions and the uncertain stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, future climatic variations are difficult to predict. The calculated heating of the atmosphere in the polar regions due to CO 2 increase is, therefore, of special interest.

Hydrological Sciences Journal↗

USGS2020

Possible effects of climate change on ixodid ticks and the pathogens they transmit: Predictions and observations

The global climate has been changing over the last century due to greenhouse gas emissions and will continue to change over this century, accelerating without effective global efforts to reduce emissions. Ticks and tick-borne diseases (TTBDs) are inherently climate-sensitive due to the sensitivity of tick lifecycles to climate. Key direct climate and weather sensitivities include survival of individual ticks, and the duration of development and host-seeking activity of ticks. These sensitivities mean that in some regions a warming climate may increase tick survival, shorten life-cycles and lengthen the duration of tick activity seasons. Indirect effects of climate change on host communities may, with changes in tick abundance, facilitate enhanced transmission of tick-borne pathogens. High temperatures, and extreme weather events (heat, cold, and flooding) are anticipated with climate change, and these may reduce tick survival and pathogen transmission in some locations. Studies of the possible effects of climate change on TTBDs to date generally project poleward range expansion of geographical ranges (with possible contraction of ranges away from the increasingly hot tropics), upslope elevational range spread in mountainous regions, and increased abundance of ticks in many current endemic regions. However, relatively few studies, using long-term (multi-decade) observations, provide evidence of recent range changes of tick populations that could be attributed to recent climate change. Further integrated ‘One Health’ observational and modeling studies are needed to detect changes in TTBD occurrence, attribute them to climate change, and to develop predictive models of public- and animal-health needs to plan for TTBD emergence.

Journal of Medical Entomology↗

USGS2017

Linking spring phenology with mechanistic models of host movement to predict disease transmission risk

Disease models typically focus on temporal dynamics of infection, while often neglecting environmental processes that determine host movement. In many systems, however, temporal disease dynamics may be slow compared to the scale at which environmental conditions alter host space-use and accelerate disease transmission. Using a mechanistic movement modelling approach, we made space-use predictions of a mobile host (elk [ Cervus Canadensis ] carrying the bacterial disease brucellosis) under environmental conditions that change daily and annually (e.g., plant phenology, snow depth), and we used these predictions to infer how spring phenology influences the risk of brucellosis transmission from elk (through aborted foetuses) to livestock in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Using data from 288 female elk monitored with GPS collars, we fit step selection functions (SSFs) during the spring abortion season and then implemented a master equation approach to translate SSFs into predictions of daily elk distribution for five plausible winter weather scenarios (from a heavy snow, to an extreme winter drought year). We predicted abortion events by combining elk distributions with empirical estimates of daily abortion rates, spatially varying elk seroprevelance and elk population counts. Our results reveal strong spatial variation in disease transmission risk at daily and annual scales that is strongly governed by variation in host movement in response to spring phenology. For example, in comparison with an average snow year, years with early snowmelt are predicted to have 64% of the abortions occurring on feedgrounds shift to occurring on mainly public lands, and to a lesser extent on private lands. Synthesis and applications . Linking mechanistic models of host movement with disease dynamics leads to a novel bridge between movement and disease ecology. Our analysis framework offers new avenues for predicting disease spread, while providing managers tools to proactively mitigate risks posed by mobile disease hosts. More broadly, we demonstrate how mechanistic movement models can provide predictions of ecological conditions that are consistent with climate change but may be more extreme than has been observed historically.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2019

Hydroclimatology of the Mississippi River Basin

Model estimated monthly water balance (WB) components (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and runoff [ R ]) for 848 United States (U.S.) Geological Survey 8-digit hydrologic units located in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) are used to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the MRB WB for water years 1901 through 2014. Results indicate the MRB can be divided into nine subregions with similar temporal variability in R . The WB analyses indicated ~79% of total water-year MRB runoff is generated by four of the nine subregions and most of the R in the basin is derived from surplus ( S ) water during the months of December through May. Furthermore, the analyses showed temporal variability in S is largely controlled by the occurrence of negative atmospheric pressure anomalies over the western U.S. and positive atmospheric pressure anomalies over the eastern U.S. coast. This combination of atmospheric pressure anomalies results in an anomalous flow of moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the MRB. In the context of paleo-climate reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, since about 1900 the MRB has experienced wetter conditions than were experienced during the previous 500 years.

Mississippi River Basin↗

USGS2013

Air - water temperature relationships in the trout streams of southeastern Minnesota’s carbonate - sandstone landscape

Carbonate-sandstone geology in southeastern Minnesota creates a heterogeneous landscape of springs, seeps, and sinkholes that supply groundwater into streams. Air temperatures are effective predictors of water temperature in surface-water dominated streams. However, no published work investigates the relationship between air and water temperatures in groundwater-fed streams (GWFS) across watersheds. We used simple linear regressions to examine weekly air-water temperature relationships for 40 GWFS in southeastern Minnesota. A 40-stream, composite linear regression model has a slope of 0.38, an intercept of 6.63, and R 2 of 0.83. The regression models for GWFS have lower slopes and higher intercepts in comparison to surface-water dominated streams. Regression models for streams with high R 2 values offer promise for use as predictive tools for future climate conditions. Climate change is expected to alter the thermal regime of groundwater-fed systems, but will do so at a slower rate than surface-water dominated systems. A regression model of intercept vs . slope can be used to identify streams for which water temperatures are more meteorologically than groundwater controlled, and thus more vulnerable to climate change. Such relationships can be used to guide restoration vs . management strategies to protect trout streams.

Minnesota↗